Category

Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Industrials: Amaero International Ltd, Emerson Electric Co, Wizz Air Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Amaero International Ltd – Atomiser on schedule for 30 June commissioning
  • Emerson Electric Co.: How Will The Adoption of Advanced Power Grid Management Software Impact Future Revenues? – Major Drivers
  • Wizz Air – Opportunity to Shift Focus from P&L Distortion to Cash Flow Clarity


Amaero International Ltd – Atomiser on schedule for 30 June commissioning

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • RaaS has published an update report on advanced materials manufacturing group Amaero International (ASX:3DA) following its announcement that the first atomiser has been installed at its Tennessee facility and is expected to be commissioned by 30 June. Key points from our report: • Installation and cold testing of the atomiser has been completed and hot testing of the atomiser has commenced on schedule. • In conjunction with commissioning, Amaero expects to produce two tonnes of titanium alloy (Ti64) powder. Following commissioning and cleaning of the atomiser, the company says it expects to commence parameter optimisation for production of C103 powder. Amaero says it expects to deliver initial samples of C103 powder to its offtake counterparty by mid-August. • The company’s announcement is in line with our forecasts for production timing and powder type. • We have adjusted our cost estimates, in particular employee costs in the near term and for conservatism have increased our estimates for research and development costs, without incorporating income estimates for government grants. • Our base-case DCF valuation is now $1.25/share fully diluted (previously $1.37/share) while a +15/-15% sensitivity analysis to our base-case valuation provides a valuation range of $0.67 to $1.72/share.

Emerson Electric Co.: How Will The Adoption of Advanced Power Grid Management Software Impact Future Revenues? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Emerson Electric reported a robust operating performance for the second quarter of 2024, surpassing their expectations.
  • The buoyant operating performance was driven by strong demand in process and hybrid markets, which aligns with significant macroeconomic trends like energy affordability and security, nearshoring, digital transformation, and sustainability.
  • The company’s underlying sales rose by 8%, with operational leverage standing at 54%, resulting in a 140 basis point EBITDA expansion to 26%.

Wizz Air – Opportunity to Shift Focus from P&L Distortion to Cash Flow Clarity

By Neil Glynn

  • Wizz Air’s FY24 contained multiple distortions; we disaggregate cash flow dynamics to show an improving picture.
  • Capacity restraint has been enforced by engine issues, not zero growth in FY25 is producing high single-digit % unit revenue gains.
  • We see an opportunity for Wizz Air to rise above distortion to earnings from engine issues and compensation by providing incremental cash flow clarity.

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Daily Brief Financials: Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Chailease Holding, China International Capital Corporation, Ryan Specialty Holdings , China Vanke , Bitcoin, Ethereum and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • FSS Head Lee Made an Urgent TV Appearance Today to Discuss the Resumption of Short Selling
  • Chailease – ROA Grinding Lower on Elevated Credit Costs
  • CICC (3908 HK): Soon to Be Its Time
  • Ryan Specialty Holdings Inc (RYAN) – Thursday, Feb 22, 2024
  • Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust
  • Blackrock’s Bitcoin Believer
  • Crypto Moves #29 – What to Expect from the Ethereum Spot ETFs?


FSS Head Lee Made an Urgent TV Appearance Today to Discuss the Resumption of Short Selling

By Sanghyun Park

  • Lee urgently appeard on TV today and said, “In June, we will explain whether and when short selling will be resumed, and what criteria we might use for the resumption.”
  • He noted considering flexible partial short selling resumption even if only some conditions are met, contrasting the Presidential Office’s stance from two days ago.
  • Presidential Office led short selling ban, now likely under FSC/FSS jurisdiction for resumption.

Chailease – ROA Grinding Lower on Elevated Credit Costs

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Chailease is facing pressure in all of its markets, Taiwan, China and Asean, with no signs of easing.
  • High frequency data (HFD) from Chailease gives us April monthly numbers, with double digit  net profit decline and a greater EPS decline
  • Credit costs are now elevated at peak levels since early FY19 for the past two quarters, and we wonder if FY24 will see far higher figures, given economic weaknesses?

CICC (3908 HK): Soon to Be Its Time

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK) is a laggard among the Chinese securities companies. With the rebound in HSI and Shanghai Composite, such divergence should narrow.
  • The investment banking business should recover following the rebound in the secondary market and equity valuations. HK’s IPO funds raised are forecast to double in 2024.
  • At 0.4x 12-month P/B, the market has deeply discounted CICC’s earnings outlook. However, as earnings recovery will be fast, its share price will react rapidly.

Ryan Specialty Holdings Inc (RYAN) – Thursday, Feb 22, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Ryan Specialty Holdings (RYAN) is a leading wholesale insurance broker founded in 2010 by former AON CEO Pat Ryan
  • RYAN generates 65% of revenue from wholesale insurance brokerage and 35% from underwriting and binding authority programs
  • The company has achieved consistent double-digit organic growth through over 45 acquisitions, majority owned by Pat Ryan and employees, focusing on long-term value creation

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Blackrock’s Bitcoin Believer

By Trillions

  • The launch of bitcoin ETFs, specifically ibit, ibiz, and Blackrock software, has seen unprecedented success and rapid growth
  • Ibid ETF reached $10 billion in assets in just 49 days, breaking records previously held by other ETFs
  • Robbie Michnick, head of digital assets at Blackrock, discusses the journey of bringing bitcoin and Blackrock together and the potential transformative impact on the industry

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Crypto Moves #29 – What to Expect from the Ethereum Spot ETFs?

By Mads Eberhardt

  • Indeed, this has been a remarkable week.
  • In last week’s Crypto Moves #28, we noted that the tight race between President Biden and Trump in the 2024 Presidential Election, along with Trump’s unexpected pro-crypto stance, might push Biden to publicly support the crypto industry.
  • This move would aim to attract the growing number of pro-crypto voters.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Sun Art Retail, Trip.com, Toyota Motor Corp Spon Adr, S.M.Entertainment Co, Allied Blenders & Distillers, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Marriott Vacations World, MGP Ingredients, CIEL , Build A Bear Workshop and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Sun Art (6808 HK):  FY24 Unimpressive, But All Eyes On Potential Alibaba Sale
  • [Trip.com (TCOM US, SELL, TP US$45) TP Change]: Liquidity and Platform Positive Vs. Demand Negative
  • Toyota Motor Corporation: Is It Finally Making The Much-Awaited Shift Towards EVs & HEVs? – Major Drivers
  • A Pop in Major K-Pop Stocks Driven by Potential Easing of Korean Contents Restrictions by China
  • Allied Blenders and Distillers Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates and Initial Thoughts on Valuation
  • Investors Are Looking for Solutions to Challenges, Not Simply Improved Communication with Investors
  • Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC) – Thursday, Feb 22, 2024
  • Mgp Ingredients Inc (MGPI) – Thursday, Feb 22, 2024
  • Ciel Limited (CIEL) Finance Cluster 08042024
  • BBW: 1Q Preview: Another Strong Q on Tap; Reiterate Buy, $41 PT


Sun Art (6808 HK):  FY24 Unimpressive, But All Eyes On Potential Alibaba Sale

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Sun Art Retail (6808 HK)‘s FY24 (fiscal year ending March) numbers were overall unimpressive, with sales down 13% yoy and net loss increasing to RMB1.6bn.
  • The new CEO’s strategy is to refocus on SSSG of offline traffic and restore price competitiveness.  April and May SSSG improved. 
  • The stock is up 20% since my initial insight on the name in March, and I believe more upside remains.

[Trip.com (TCOM US, SELL, TP US$45) TP Change]: Liquidity and Platform Positive Vs. Demand Negative

By Eric Wen

  • In a tough macro environment with travel as perhaps the only bright spot in consumption
  • However, equally compelling is the demand negatives of overseas travel as a somewhat luxurious consumption item and tough competition at home;
  • Given the stock’s valuation, we maintain the rating as SELL but raise TP to US$45/ADS, implying 2025 PE of 15x.

Toyota Motor Corporation: Is It Finally Making The Much-Awaited Shift Towards EVs & HEVs? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Toyota Motor Corporation recently concluded its fiscal year ended March 2024 with notable financial results and established expectations for the upcoming fiscal year.
  • The company’s actual operating income reached a record JPY 5.35 trillion, significantly bolstered by support and cooperation from various stakeholders, including employees, suppliers, and dealers.
  • This substantial figure reflects the company’s commitment to region and product-based management over many years.

A Pop in Major K-Pop Stocks Driven by Potential Easing of Korean Contents Restrictions by China

By Douglas Kim

  • The major K-Pop stocks had the biggest up day so far this year on 23 May, driven by potential easing of Korean cultural contents restrictions by the Chinese government. 
  • In the past nine years, there has been a ban on Korean singers’ performances in China.
  • Among the major K-Pop stocks, we continue to have a Positive View on S.M.Entertainment Co (041510 KS) but bearish on HYBE (352820 KS) and YG Entertainment (122870 KS).

Allied Blenders and Distillers Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates and Initial Thoughts on Valuation

By Ethan Aw

  • Allied Blenders & Distillers (9844250Z IN) is looking to raise about US$180m in its upcoming India IPO.  
  • ABD is the largest Indian-owned Indian-made foreign liquor (IMFL) company and the third largest IMFL company in India, in terms of annual sales volumes between FY14 and FY22.
  • In this note, we provide a summary of its refiling updates, undertake a quick peer comparison and share our initial thoughts on valuation.

Investors Are Looking for Solutions to Challenges, Not Simply Improved Communication with Investors

By Aki Matsumoto

  • While communication with investors is an important tool, “TSE’s request” should be the starting point for solving management issues, as it gave managers the opportunity to think about strategy themselves.
  • Since many Japanese companies have management issues, it is not surprising that more activist investors believe that investment opportunities can be created by encouraging companies to solve these issues.
  • Even if a company can convince activist investors through shareholder relations, it will only buy time, and investors/shareholders are looking to increase corporate value by solving problems.

Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC) – Thursday, Feb 22, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC) reported positive results on February 21st, 2024, indicating a potential turnaround for the company.
  • Despite a challenging year in 2023, VAC’s issues were temporary and offer an opportunity to invest in a growing business with a 10%+ free cash flow yield.
  • VAC is a leisure-focused timeshare business with a strong presence in the vacation ownership market, owning upscale resort brands and deriving 35% of adjusted EBITDA from recurring sources.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Mgp Ingredients Inc (MGPI) – Thursday, Feb 22, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Short-selling opportunity in American whiskey prices, with MGPI as a target
  • Stock price of company declined 15% after reporting, but author sees larger downward trend
  • Changing market dynamics provide significant upside potential for short position, timed well to capitalize on industry changes.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Ciel Limited (CIEL) Finance Cluster 08042024

By ACF Equity Research

  • CIEL Limited (SEMDEX: CIEL) is a Mauritius listed diversified industrial company.
  • In this update we focus on CIEL’s Finance Cluster which in 1H24 accounted for 35.9% of Group (Grp) FCF, 25.8% of Grp EBITDA and 15.5% of Grp revenues.
  • CIEL has a diversified international growth portfolio of 25 companies across 6 ‘clusters’ – Textile, Properties, Healthcare, Hotels & Resorts, Agro and Finance.

BBW: 1Q Preview: Another Strong Q on Tap; Reiterate Buy, $41 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, $41 price target and projections with Build-A-Bear Workshop announcing 1QFY24 (April) results before the open on Thursday. We believe the company remains one of the key winners in the specialty retailing space, with strong returns, low inventory and compelling economics, which will become even more apparent as Build-A-Bear expands the higher-margin commercial and franchising segments, opens key tourist driven locations and continues to repurchase BBW shares. As such, and with BBW trading at 8.1X our FY25 EPS, we view the risk/reward as impressive, and we reiterate our Buy rating and $41 price target,

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: KRX Short Interest Weekly (May 17th): Kb Financial and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX Short Interest Weekly (May 17th): Kb Financial, Shinhan Financial


KRX Short Interest Weekly (May 17th): Kb Financial, Shinhan Financial

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX Stocks as of May 17th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD6.5bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Kb Financial, Shinhan Financial.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Nvidia Does Not Disappoint and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Nvidia Does Not Disappoint
  • New Records For (Some) Dept. Stores
  • #2Business Buzz: Chinese Solar, Paytm, Fed Rate Cut, Fine on Citi
  • How They Roll: Emissions and Energy Consumption of SGX-Listed Transport Companies
  • US Banks – Flat Loans ~USD6.7 Trillion for Almost Every Week for Nearly 2 Years


Ohayo Japan | Nvidia Does Not Disappoint

By Mark Chadwick

  • U.S. stocks fell Wednesday as Fed minutes revealed concerns about persistent inflation, dimming hopes for imminent rate cuts
  • Nvidia shares surged 5% as the company reported robust earnings, with data-center revenue skyrocketing 427% year-over-year to $22.6 billion, surpassing Wall Street’s expectations.
  • Nissan to halt the development of two EVs initially set for production at its Canton plant in Mississippi, due to a slowdown in EV sales growth in North America

New Records For (Some) Dept. Stores

By Michael Causton

  • We have long forecast the demise of regional department stores and the emergence of an elite group of luxury emporiums in big cities and this had been happening gradually. 
  • Until the last year. Now the gap between the two is widening sharply, boosted in part by tourists flocking to big city stores, resulting in both record sales and profits.
  • At Matsuya Ginza for example, duty-free sales accounted for an historic 33% of sales last year. Further growth is expected.

#2Business Buzz: Chinese Solar, Paytm, Fed Rate Cut, Fine on Citi

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • China’s solar expansion faces structural and regulatory challenges, risking its green energy leadership.
  • Paytm (PAYTM IN) reports its first sales decline and a significant net loss.
  • Traders now expect the Fed’s first rate cut by November.

How They Roll: Emissions and Energy Consumption of SGX-Listed Transport Companies

By Daniel Hellberg

  • In this insight we present GHG emissions and energy consumption metrics of select SGX-listed transport companies relative to their revenue and assets 
  • We also relate certain balance sheet characteristics to higher levels of GHG emissions and energy consumption among these companies
  • Finally, we offer a framework investors can use to evaluate a transport company’s ability to significantly lower emissions and energy consumption going forward

US Banks – Flat Loans ~USD6.7 Trillion for Almost Every Week for Nearly 2 Years

By Daniel Tabbush

  • There is a long period of flat lining loans for large US banks indicative of weak demand that is persistent and risk-aversion by banks.
  • Large time deposits have swelled and this should continue to ‘roll through’ banks’ income statement with high funding cost growth.
  • We show about 30 of the largest banks in the US, their profile of high funding costs growth and weak interest income growth; flat loans will not help.

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust
  • Morning Views Asia: SJM Holdings, Softbank Group, Yankuang Energy Group


Morning Views Asia: Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Morning Views Asia: SJM Holdings, Softbank Group, Yankuang Energy Group

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief ECM: Go Digit IPO Trading – Low Subscription Rate and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Go Digit IPO Trading – Low Subscription Rate, Not All Shares Are Locked Up
  • Shift Up IPO Valuation Analysis
  • Pre-IPO Shanghai Cell Therapy Group – Commercialization Prospects and Profitability Are Pessimistic


Go Digit IPO Trading – Low Subscription Rate, Not All Shares Are Locked Up

By Sumeet Singh

  • Go Digit General Insurance raised around US$315m in its India IPO.
  • Go Digit General Insurance is a digital full stack insurance company, offering motor insurance, health insurance, travel insurance, property insurance, marine insurance, liability insurance and other insurance products.
  • We have looked at the company’s performance in our past note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Shift Up IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of Shift Up is target price of 95,510 won, which is 59% higher than the high end of the IPO price range (60,000 won).
  • We believe Shift Up deserves higher valuation multiples than its peers mainly due to higher sales growth, much higher operating margins, and higher ROE.
  • Since its launch in April of this year, Stellar Blade (PS console game) has ranked first in sales in eight countries, including the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan.

Pre-IPO Shanghai Cell Therapy Group – Commercialization Prospects and Profitability Are Pessimistic

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The biggest problem of cell therapy in China is the uncertain prospect of commercialization. Medical practitioners also have reservations regarding the usefulness of cryopreserved cells for clinical application.
  • Shanghai Cell Therapy could be in a long-term loss making state, and both of its R&D and commercialization capabilities need to be verified. Then, how would investors obtain expected returns?
  • Post-Investment valuation already reached above RMB7.1 billion after Series D financing. However, market value of comparable companies are quite low, which makes us worry about stock price performance after IPO.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: July Short Selling Resumption in Korea: Local Market Info & Trading Considerations and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • July Short Selling Resumption in Korea: Local Market Info & Trading Considerations
  • Chilled & Frozen Logistics (9099) Gone Ballistic – Reminder of Structure, Price, and Incentives
  • Tax-Loss Selling in Australia 2024 – A Trade Basket [Updated]
  • HKTV (1137 HK): Co-Founders’ Ruse to Increase Their Grip Through a Share Buyback at HK$2.15
  • PropertyGuru (PGRU US): KKR/TPG Mulling a Buyout
  • Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Jun 24: Names Lurking Close to The Border Should Be Monitored
  • NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two High Probability Changes in September; Adds Are Flying
  • NIFTY100 Low Volatility 30 Index Rebalance Preview: Bharti Could Replace Power Grid
  • TAQA & Criteria/Naturgy: Imminent Offer


July Short Selling Resumption in Korea: Local Market Info & Trading Considerations

By Sanghyun Park

  • According to market information confirmed so far, the resumption is set for July 1st, and short selling will be restricted to the constituents of KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150.
  • The surge in trading volume likely stemmed from the return of long-short positions post-short-selling ban, leading to an overall market volume increase.
  • Another critical factor is the buying pressure on value-up stocks resuming in early July. We should aim at the price impacts of intersecting long-short flows and value-up stock purchases.

Chilled & Frozen Logistics (9099) Gone Ballistic – Reminder of Structure, Price, and Incentives

By Travis Lundy

  • In late March, AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP) made an unsolicited (“hostile”) bid for Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP) at a near 50% premium at ¥3,000/share.
  • It traded through, then C&F ran a bid solicitation process, got four bids. Since the day AFTER that announcement, the stock is up 56%. We approach Alps Logistics multiples.
  • This deal doesn’t get the split price benefit that HTS and Alps Logistics did. And it is a fundamentally different logistics business. And target management dynamics are different.

Tax-Loss Selling in Australia 2024 – A Trade Basket [Updated]

By Travis Lundy

  • Three weeks after instantiation of Phase 1, the ASX200 vs LiquidBasket is +1.8% if you traded the basket VWAP the next day. vs LessLiquid it is +8.5%. 
  • Equal weight all names in the two is +3.1%. Trade VWAP over two days it is +0.7%, +7.6%, and +2.7%. So far things are OK. 
  • Next week one would add another basket, then in the last week of June, one would cover and reverse the trade and hold on for 30-40 trading days or so.

HKTV (1137 HK): Co-Founders’ Ruse to Increase Their Grip Through a Share Buyback at HK$2.15

By Arun George

  • Hong Kong Television Network (1137 HK) has launched a share buyback to acquire a maximum of 100.0m shares (11.25% of shares) at HK$2.15, a 20.8% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • The offer is conditional on approval by the requisite majority of shareholders and the approval of the whitewash waiver. There is no minimum acceptance condition, and the offer price is final.
  • The offer is unattractive and is an inefficient use of cash to increase the co-founders’ grip on the shares. Nevertheless, the EGM vote is likely to get up.   

PropertyGuru (PGRU US): KKR/TPG Mulling a Buyout

By Arun George

  • Bloomberg reports that KKR and TPG are exploring options, including a buyout of PropertyGuru (PGRU US), and are gauging initial interest from other global investors.
  • The favoured privatisation option for US ADRs with the Cayman Islands incorporation is a statutory merger requiring a two-thirds voting approval threshold. 
  • The concentrated shareholder register would suggest that TPG/KKR would aim for irrevocable from the other three substantial shareholders, facilitating a modest takeover premium. 

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Jun 24: Names Lurking Close to The Border Should Be Monitored

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the June 2024 index rebal event.
  • Based on the current numbers, we see two F100 expected ADDs/DELs and three other F250 expected ADDs/DELs. The final changes will be decided based 4th June 2024 closing prices.
  • There are several names just outside the border requiring small price changes to trigger more index changes. An intra-review change is also possible.

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two High Probability Changes in September; Adds Are Flying

By Brian Freitas


NIFTY100 Low Volatility 30 Index Rebalance Preview: Bharti Could Replace Power Grid

By Brian Freitas

  • With a week left in the review period, Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN) could replace Power Grid Corporation Of India (PWGR IN) in the Nifty100 Low Volatility 30 Index in June.
  • Constituent changes, volatility changes and capping changes will result in one-way turnover of 6.4% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 2.3bn.
  • The flows on the stocks are not very large but there will be same side and offsetting flows from other index trackers at the same time.

TAQA & Criteria/Naturgy: Imminent Offer

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Press reports that CriteriaCaixa and TAQA will launch their takeover bid for Naturgy at €27/share imminently, with conversations between CriteriaCaixa and TAQA on the distribution of control practically finished. 
  • The offer will target approximately 54% of the share capital of Naturgy. TAQA must go through an exhaustive permit request process due to the highly regulated businesses of Naturgy.
  • The shares look fairly priced vs. comparables. At the closing share price of 22 May of €24.92/share, I would be long Naturgy (gross spread to hypothetical offer is 7.7%).

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: PDD (PDD US): 1Q24 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • PDD (PDD US): 1Q24, Rev Up by 131% and Margin Reaching Historical High
  • Fancl (4921 JP):  Worth A Bet Given Negative Impact Of Kobayashi Products Recall Subsiding
  • Daifuku (6383) | Time to Pick up Global Leader
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (23-May-2024): UMC begins move-in at Singapore fab.
  • Indian Banks Screener FYE24, Part 2: Bandhan and UBI added to the buy list
  • [Li Auto (LI US, BUY, TP US$25) TP Change]: Delaying BEV Is the Wrong Approach to Competition
  • AMAT. No Beat, No Raise, No Slump. But Why?
  • KS / Kuaishou (1024 HK): 1Q24, Strong GMV and Historical High Op Margin Again
  • New Experiments in China’s Crowded EV Space
  • INOD: Profitable AI, Initiating


PDD (PDD US): 1Q24, Rev Up by 131% and Margin Reaching Historical High

By Ming Lu

  • Total revenue rose by 131% in 1Q24 with advertising up by 56% YoY and commission up by 327% YoY.
  • In 1Q24, both the operating profit and the operating margin reached record highs.
  • The historical price / sales ratios suggests a significant upside. Buy.

Fancl (4921 JP):  Worth A Bet Given Negative Impact Of Kobayashi Products Recall Subsiding

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Fancl Corp (4921 JP)‘s share price has declined 18% year-to-date, greatly under-performing the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) which was up 17% year-to-date. 
  • The company recently announced FY24 results (fiscal year ending March).  Sales grew 7% yoy and operating profit grew 60% yoy in FY24. 
  • I believe the stock price is attractive at 23x 2024 PE with 15% expected earnings CAGR for the next 3 years.

Daifuku (6383) | Time to Pick up Global Leader

By Mark Chadwick

  • Daifuku released FY3/24 results on 10 May. Since then the share price has declined by 15%, giving investors an attractive entry point.
  • Daifuku is a key beneficiary of warehouse automation, which is forecast to grow at a CAGR of over 6%, with industry spend projected to reach $37 billion by 2030
  • We expect the market to price in an order recovery in the core electronics segment and believe that the MTP is yet to be factored into the current share price.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (23-May-2024): UMC begins move-in at Singapore fab.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • UMC Singapore fab is in the process of moving in new equipment to enhance its production capabilities.
  • Japan has a target of manufacturing 12 million software-defined vehicles by the year 2030.
  • India continues to enforce import restrictions on IT products, impacting the sector’s growth and development. Power HV brings advanced technology to transformer monitoring in the energy industry for increased reliability.

Indian Banks Screener FYE24, Part 2: Bandhan and UBI added to the buy list

By Victor Galliano

  • We add value plays Bandhan and UBI to the buy list alongside HDFC Bank and Baroda, turning neutral from negative on SBI. Bandhan is our core Indian bank pick, UBI benefits from improving return trends

[Li Auto (LI US, BUY, TP US$25) TP Change]: Delaying BEV Is the Wrong Approach to Competition

By Eric Wen

  • LI Auto’s decision to push out its BEV launch to 2025 is a delay of multi-faces at a time when China’s EV market is chaotically.
  • We keep rating @BUY because LI still possesses the SUV niche, enjoys a healthy margin and have ample cash. 
  • We cut TP from US$40 to US$25 and maintain BUY.

AMAT. No Beat, No Raise, No Slump. But Why?

By William Keating

  • AMAT Q124 revenues of $6.65 billion, in line with guidance and essentially flat both QoQ and YoY. Current quarter guidance also flat sequentially
  • WFE valuations are at all time record highs while revenues remain on life support from China
  • If China revenues fall off before non-China returns to growth, the WFE segment could be in for a world of pain.

KS / Kuaishou (1024 HK): 1Q24, Strong GMV and Historical High Op Margin Again

By Ming Lu

  • In 1Q24, revenue grew by 17% YoY and e-commerce GMV grew by 28% YoY.
  • Both the operating margin and the operating profit reached historical highs in 1Q24.
  • We set an upside of 47% and the price target at HK$86.00. Buy.

New Experiments in China’s Crowded EV Space

By Eric Wen

  • Making EV itself doesn’t make money, which is why independents like Nio and XPeng are thinking alternative ways to breakeven;
  • Tesla envisioned to make money through scale, of which BYD bettered. Tesla also envisioned to make money from autonomous driving (ADS);
  • Nio plans to sell its battery swapping service while XPeng is selling ADS to Volkswagen. Both are experiments aiming at breakeven. Both also have new models to launch.

INOD: Profitable AI, Initiating

By Hamed Khorsand

  • INOD is benefiting from the movement to incorporate artificial intelligence (“A.I.”) into many applications
  • INOD provides the datasets required for training A.I. and it has quickly become a leading provider of such service
  • The Company is now on pace to grow at a faster pace than expected and should lead to higher earnings and free cash flow in coming quarters

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Daily Brief Macro: Positioning Watch – The real world strikes back and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Positioning Watch – The real world strikes back
  • Don’t Let the Bull Throw You Off!
  • Taiwan Shines as China & Japan Decline:  Global Funds Top-Down Positioning Report
  • New Zealand Policy Rate 5.5% (consensus 5.5%) in May-24
  • Sweden Unemployment Rate 8.9% in Apr-24
  • UK Inflation Excess Broadly Persists


Positioning Watch – The real world strikes back

By Andreas Steno

  • Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.
  • Markets have been enjoying the easier financial conditions imposed by a weaker than anticipated inflation print, although yields have found their way back to pre-CPI levels.
  • The big ongoing theme in markets seems to be the renewed pressures in commodities, as real world demand for crucial metals like copper and nickel has spurred significant flows into broad commodities.

Don’t Let the Bull Throw You Off!

By Rikki Malik

  • There is a chance for a correction in the HK markets as latecomers to the party get nervous
  • All the signs are pointing to a continuation of this bull market as government support measures continue to roll out.
  • Don’t get bucked off that bull by a short-term correction!

Taiwan Shines as China & Japan Decline:  Global Funds Top-Down Positioning Report

By Steven Holden

  • Asian Decline:  China & HK hits record lows and remains a key underweight.  Australia and Japan near ownership lows and India becomes a key underweight.  Taiwan powers to record highs. 
  • Americas Dominance: The United States remains the top allocation and largest country underweight.  Value funds increase underweight in the USA but Growth funds reduce.  Argentina rises at Brazil’s expense.
  • EMEA Conviction Overweight: The UK, France, and the Netherlands maintain near-record overweights. France sees some declining interest, while Belgium, Norway, and Finland play diminishing role. MENA underweight grows.

New Zealand Policy Rate 5.5% (consensus 5.5%) in May-24

By Heteronomics AI

  • The RBNZ maintained its policy rate at 5.50%, in line with economic consensus, emphasizing the need for restrictive monetary policy to control inflation.
  • Domestic inflation remains above the target range, driven by higher costs in non-tradable sectors; future rate decisions will depend on the pace of inflation reduction and adjustment of inflation expectations.
  • Global economic growth remains subdued with variations among trading partners; cautious global monetary policy and labour market dynamics will significantly influence the RBNZ’s future interest rate trajectory.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Sweden Unemployment Rate 8.9% in Apr-24

By Heteronomics AI

  • Sweden’s unemployment rate in April 2024 dropped by 0.3pp to 8.9%, partially reversing the rise from March.
  • The rate remains above the one-year average.
  • This indicates ongoing labour market challenges in Sweden.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

UK Inflation Excess Broadly Persists

By Phil Rush

  • UK CPI inflation exceeded expectations again as it only slowed to 2.3% in April amid broad resilience in the core and services. The 3m-o-3m and 6m rates are back above 2%.
  • Firms continue to agree and pass through wage increases inconsistent with a sustainable return to the target. UK inflation’s median monthly impulse remains stuck at 3%.
  • We still see excessive underlying pressures persisting but recognise the BoE’s dovish bias. It may only postpone its premature rate cut until August on upside news.

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