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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Financials: Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Kfin Technologies , Ally Financial, Aavas Financiers Ltd, Bell Financial, Bitcoin Pro and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Latest Info on Value-Up Index Involving KRX & NPS: Potential Flow Trading Patterns
  • KFIN Tech: Block Deal Trade Special Situations and Tactical Trade Strategy
  • Ally Financial Inc (ALLY) – Wednesday, Feb 28, 2024
  • Aavas Financiers Ltd (AAVAS IN) | Regaining Glory
  • Bell Financial Group Ltd – Strong start continues – April YTD PAT +135%
  • Return of the Flows


Latest Info on Value-Up Index Involving KRX & NPS: Potential Flow Trading Patterns

By Sanghyun Park

  • The value-up index aims to align closely with the KOSPI 200’s composition, adjusting stock weights based on factors from KRX Governance Leaders 100 and KRX ESG Dividend Opportunities Index.
  • Insiders confirm NPS will create new funds to track the value-up index, needing SAA adjustments and Fund Management Committee approval. Despite hurdles, government backing suggests smooth NPS involvement.
  • Buybacks could cause passive outflows in KOSPI 200 rebalancing and inflows in value-up index rebalancing. This timing discrepancy could create a consistent passive flow pattern for these stocks.

KFIN Tech: Block Deal Trade Special Situations and Tactical Trade Strategy

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Impending block deals which generally create supply over-hang on the stock leads to a negative impact on the stock 
  • These block deals generally include selling promoters and big funds at a price discount to its current market price 
  • Historically, such events suggest once the block deal is done; stock reacts positively creating a Special Situation Opportunity

Ally Financial Inc (ALLY) – Wednesday, Feb 28, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Ally remains confident in their ability to navigate challenges with a focus on pricing and underwriting discipline
  • Ally’s strong capital position and strategic focus on digital banking position them well to benefit from potential economic recovery and rising interest rates
  • Author believes Ally’s stock has significant long-term growth potential and could triple in value, with limited downside risk in the short term

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Aavas Financiers Ltd (AAVAS IN) | Regaining Glory

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • Part of our housing finance checks, we have been visiting Aavas Financiers Ltd (AAVAS IN)  branches for over two years now.
  • While the situation was grim early on post the management change and increased competitive intensity, the current channel inputs are encouraging.
  • Key areas that warrant attention are growth trajectory, yields, and tech upgrade. 

Bell Financial Group Ltd – Strong start continues – April YTD PAT +135%

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • RaaS Research Group has published an update report on diversified financials company Bell Financial Group (ASX:BFG) following the company’s presentation at the Bell Potter Emerging Leaders’ Conference yesterday.
  • An April YTD trading update provided at the conference points to revenue growth of 23% and Profit After Tax (PAT) growth of 135%, an acceleration on Q1 CY24 Profit Before Tax (PBT) growth rates provided at the AGM, with all divisions profitable.
  • This compares to a RaaS H1 CY24 PAT growth estimate of 90%, placing the group on track to achieve our H1 estimates.

Return of the Flows

By Delphi Digital

  • BTC Spot ETFs Fuel Bull Rally: ETF inflows drive Bitcoin’s rally, signaling strong bullish momentum and potential all-time highs.
  • Market Structure Shift Supports BTC: Positive ETF flows correlate with Bitcoin price gains, indicating crucial market structure changes.
  • ETH Spot ETF Ignites Alt Season: Unexpected ETH spot ETF approval boosts Ethereum, sparking a potential altcoin surge.

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Daily Brief Private Markets: Temasek co-leads $14m round of SG agritech firm Rize and more

By | Daily Briefs, Private Markets

In today’s briefing:

  • Temasek co-leads $14m round of SG agritech firm Rize
  • Surge leads self-service customer support platform Brainfish’s US$2.5M seed round | e27


Temasek co-leads $14m round of SG agritech firm Rize

By Tech in Asia

  • Rize, a Singapore-based agritech startup, has secured US$14 million in a series A funding round co-led by Breakthrough Energy Ventures, GenZero, Temasek, and Wavemaker Impact.
  • The company plans to use the funds to boost its presence in other markets like Indonesia and Vietnam.
  • It also aims to increase its team of agronomy experts to over 100. Rize’s platform gathers key agricultural information needed for sustainable farming.

Surge leads self-service customer support platform Brainfish’s US$2.5M seed round | e27

By e27

  • Brainfish, an AI-powered self-service customer support platform for businesses, has raised US$2.5 million in seed funding.
  • The latest round was led by Peak XV’s Surge, with participation from Macdoch Ventures, Black Sheep Capital, existing angel Justus Hammer (CEO MadPaws), and new angels.
  • This brings its total capital to US$3.3 million.

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Daily Brief ESG: Increasing Profitability to Gain Support from Overseas Investors Is a Condition for Higher Valuation and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Increasing Profitability to Gain Support from Overseas Investors Is a Condition for Higher Valuation


Increasing Profitability to Gain Support from Overseas Investors Is a Condition for Higher Valuation

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Even after the TSE’s request for a P/B increase, it is not possible to raise valuations simply on the expectation of a P/B increase without improving profitability.
  • Most companies have cash allocation challenges. Companies with higher profitability will accumulate even more cash on hand, so higher level of shareholder return will further positively impact ROE and ROA.
  • Some of the companies that have reduced valuations include those with relatively high ROE and ROA, so there are small-cap stocks with reduced valuations and increased investment opportunities.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Nasdaq up on Nvidia (Again) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Nasdaq up on Nvidia (Again)
  • Snack Dynasty: Haldiram’s Rise to a Multi-Billion Dollar Empire
  • #2 India Insights: Adani on Fundraising Spree, RIL Betting on Logistics, NTPC Green IPO Soon
  • China Power Sector: Where Can We Still Find Value?
  • [Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:700 HK/JD US/AAPL US/1810 HK/2618 HK/BABA US/PDD US/VIPS US/3690 HK
  • #6Business Buzz: Tech Giants Clash in India, Apple Triumphs in China, Nasdaq Rises
  • The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending May 24, 2024
  • Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – May 28, 2024


Ohayo Japan | Nasdaq up on Nvidia (Again)

By Mark Chadwick

  • Toyota, Mazda and Subaru are positioning themselves to meet growing consumer demand for hybrid vehicles, which offer a balance of fuel efficiency, emissions, and practicality compared to fully electric vehicles
  • Nvidia climbed above $1,100 for the first time ever, buoyed by news that Elon Musk’s AI startup xAI raised $6 billion in a Series B
  • GameStop (GME) soared nearly 25% after raising close to $1 billion from a share sale. Apple (AAPL) also saw gains following a significant increase in iPhone sales in China.

Snack Dynasty: Haldiram’s Rise to a Multi-Billion Dollar Empire

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Haldiram’s skyrockets from Bikaner roots to $8 billion global snack powerhouse.
  • Agarwal family’s strategic split and merger propel Haldiram to new heights in the snack industry.
  • Bain and Blackstone battle for Haldiram, eyeing a massive acquisition.

#2 India Insights: Adani on Fundraising Spree, RIL Betting on Logistics, NTPC Green IPO Soon

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Adani Group readying its war-chest with the fund raise as it recovered from Hindenburg Saga
  • Reliance entering into logistics infrastructure sector with its logistics park in Chennai
  • NTPC soon to launch its renewables arm IPO of 10,000 crore after elections

China Power Sector: Where Can We Still Find Value?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • The China Power Sector has revived on the back of industry tariff reforms, higher consumption driven by AI adoption, and an increase in grid investments. Yet, there are still values.
  • China Power International (2380 HK) and Huaneng Power Intl Inc H (902 HK) are the power conglomerates that look attractive on fundamentals, earnings and valuations.
  • Among clean energy names, China Longyuan Power (916 HK) is a laggard YTD. However, earnings growth should accelerate and its multiples are not stretched.

[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:700 HK/JD US/AAPL US/1810 HK/2618 HK/BABA US/PDD US/VIPS US/3690 HK

By Ying Pan

  • 700 HK:<DnF Mobile> officially launched today, with good first-day performance.(+)
  • JD US/AAPL US/1810 HK: iPhone prices cut by 20%+ for 6.18 shopping festival (+/-/-)
  • JD US/2618 HK/BABA US/PDD US/VIPS US: JD begins cracking down on “big enterprise disease” through layoffs and stricter corporate culture (+/+/-/-/-)

#6Business Buzz: Tech Giants Clash in India, Apple Triumphs in China, Nasdaq Rises

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • U.S. Tech Lobby opposes India’s antitrust law, fearing cost hikes and investment hurdles.
  • Apple’s China iPhone shipments surge 52% in May, driven by discounts and sales preparation.
  • Nasdaq 100 Futures rise on Apple’s China surge, but global markets remain cautious.

The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending May 24, 2024

By Water Tower Research

  • MSOS fell 14.90% last week, while YOLO dropped 8.72%. Of the larger MSOs, Verano (NEO: VRNO, OTCQX: VRNOF) got hit hardest at -20.77%.
  • MariMed (CSE: MRMD, OTCQX: MRMD) at -4.61% and Cannabist (NEO: CBST, OTCQX: CBSTF) at -7.43% held up best, but the entire top 10 was down last week.
  • Cannabis stocks continue to sell off in the face ostensibly good news

Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – May 28, 2024

By Water Tower Research

  • A tough week for our indexes. It was a down week in the market for Water Tower Research’s Residential Manufacturers & Suppliers Index (-6.4%) and Home Goods Retailers Index (- 6.7%) relative to the broader market indexes (-0.1% to -1.5%) and the Mass Retailers Index (-1.6%).
  • On a relative basis, the Commercial/Contract Furniture Index (-1.0%) outperformed.
  • Leggett reappointed Karl Glassman as CEO. Amidst the ongoing mattress industry recession/depression, Glassman, who served as Leggett’s CEO from 2016 to 2021 and Board Chair since 2020, was again appointed President and CEO, succeeding CEO Mitch Dolloff, who resigned.

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Daily Brief ECM: ASMedia GDR Offering – Well Flagged and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • ASMedia GDR Offering – Well Flagged, and Momentum Has Been Strong Leading into the Offering
  • Shift Up IPO: The Investment Case
  • Shift Up IPO – Thoughts on Valuations – Bear/Base/Bull
  • Pre-IPO Jiangxi Rimag Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention


ASMedia GDR Offering – Well Flagged, and Momentum Has Been Strong Leading into the Offering

By Clarence Chu

  • Asmedia Technology (5269 TT) is looking to raise up to US$335m in its global depository receipts (GDRs) offering.
  • Overall, the deal would be a relatively small one for the stock to digest at just 5.6 days of its three month ADV.
  • In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

Shift Up IPO: The Investment Case

By Arun George

  • Shift Up (462870 KS) is Korea’s leading game development studio. It is seeking to raise up to US$320 million.    
  • Shift Up now focuses only on game development and has a policy of publishing games in cooperation with global partners such as Tencent (700 HK) and Sony Corp (6758 JP)
  • The investment case rests on a stellar game development track record, several growth drivers, high profitability and cash generation.

Shift Up IPO – Thoughts on Valuations – Bear/Base/Bull

By Sumeet Singh

  • Shift Up (462870 KS) plans to raise up to US$320m in its South Korean IPO.
  • Shift Up is a South Korean games developer, which as released three games so far for the global markets.
  • We have looked at the company’s performance in our past notes. In this note, we talk about valuations.

Pre-IPO Jiangxi Rimag Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Considering the dominant position of medical imaging centers in public hospitals and challenges from other players, future development space of Rimag would be squeezed,and even will soon encounter growth bottlenecks.
  • Although Rimag turned losses into profits, we still have doubts about its future profitability due to increasing costs and potential price decline.This business may fail to bring investors decent profits.
  • Rimag’s post-investment valuation after last round financing isn’t cheap.Given the uncertainty of future revenue growth prospects and the real market space, P/S of below 3 is a more comfortable range.

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: China Vanke and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: China Vanke


Morning Views Asia: China Vanke

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Event-Driven: S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Regular & Ad Hoc Changes in June and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Regular & Ad Hoc Changes in June
  • PNB Housing: Block Deal Trade Special Situations and Tactical Trade Strategy
  • QV Equities (QVE AU): 28th June Shareholder Vote
  • DS Dansuk: Block Deal Sale by Stonebridge Capital
  • JSE June ‘24 Rebalance Rankings: No Changes Expected + NPN X PRX Discount Update
  • Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Jun 24: Potential ADDs Could Continue to Outperform Potential DELs
  • BBVA Files Hostile Offer: Conditions, Defences and Probabilities


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Regular & Ad Hoc Changes in June

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period complete, we take a look at the potential index changes at the June rebalance as well as potential index inclusions due to M&A.
  • Timing is key for the ad hoc inclusions to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) with an ad hoc inclusion being announced prior to the regular announcement.
  • Passive trackers will need to buy 1.3-27x ADV on the expected adds and have 0.8-4.7x ADV to sell on the expected deletes. Shorts have built up on the potential deletes.

PNB Housing: Block Deal Trade Special Situations and Tactical Trade Strategy

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Impending block deals which generally create supply over-hang on the stock leads to a negative impact on the stock. 
  • These block deals generally include selling promoters and big funds at a price discount to its current market price. 
  • Historically, such events suggest once the block deal is done; stock reacts positively creating a Special Situation Opportunity

QV Equities (QVE AU): 28th June Shareholder Vote

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 12th March, Aussie-based investment plays QV Equities Ltd (QVE AU) and WAM Leaders Ltd (WLE AU)  entered into a Scheme
  • The current scrip terms are 0.739 new WAM shares per QVE share; OR A$0.989/share cash. Terms will be adjusted for updated pre-tax NTA/shares of both companies after the Scheme Meeting. 
  • The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting to be held on the 28th June. Expected implementation on the 15 July. The IE says fair & reasonable.

DS Dansuk: Block Deal Sale by Stonebridge Capital

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 28 May, it was announced that Stonebridge Capital plans to conduct a block deal sale of a portion of its stake in DS Dansuk.
  • This deal involves 210,000 to 290,000 shares of DS Dansuk. The block deal price range is from 99,800 won to 101,400 won, which represents 7.06% to 8.52% discount.
  • After this second block deal, there will be further overhang concerns about additional sales of DS Dansuk by Stonebridge Capital in the coming months. 

JSE June ‘24 Rebalance Rankings: No Changes Expected + NPN X PRX Discount Update

By Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

  • Last night, the price snapshot was taken for the JSE June rebalance.

  • We do not anticipate any index changes for the Top 40, FINDI, FINI, INDI or RESI.

  • There are several noteworthy free float changes across ALSI constituents, particularly amongst foreign counters (detail below).


Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Jun 24: Potential ADDs Could Continue to Outperform Potential DELs

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. This index is rebalanced on a quarterly basis.
  • The base date for rankings for the June 2024 index rebal event is 31st May 2024. In this insight, we take a look at the latest list of potential ADDs/DELs.
  • Currently, I see 7 ADDs and 7 DELs for the SE600 index. There are more names just outside the border requiring small price changes to get involved in index changes.

BBVA Files Hostile Offer: Conditions, Defences and Probabilities

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • On 24 May, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentari (BBVA SM) submitted the authorisation request for its all-stock offer for Banco De Sabadell SA (SAB SM). Closing expected to take 6-8 months.
  • Gross spread (CSP 27 May) is 7.6%, which This translates in a 52% implied probability of deal success. The fixed income market appears to share this view.
  • Nevertheless, from a long-only perspective, the risk/reward of Sabadell is interesting. The deal values Sabadell’s shares at €2.07 each, an implied equity value of €11,187 million, for a 0.92 P/TBV.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Akatsuki Inc (TYO 3932): A $188M Net Net Japanese Game Developer and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Akatsuki Inc (TYO 3932): A $188M Net Net Japanese Game Developer
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (29-May-2024): Samsung targets 1,000-layer 3D NAND by 2030.
  • Indian Energy Exchange: Do You Want to Earn a Royalty on India’s Economic Growth?
  • Is Akeso’s Sell-Off a Long Waited Opportunity or a Long Overdue Correction?
  • Yahoo Still Falling Further Behind Amazon and Rakuten
  • UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): The Outlook for 2024 Could Show Flat to Low Single-Digit Growth.
  • Chariot Limited (AIM: CHAR): Drilling success onshore Morocco
  • JTEC Corp (3446) – Facing Some Challenges over Lead Times
  • Virtuoso Optoelectronics Ltd- Forensic Analysis
  • DRX: Here We Go Again; Increasing TP on Contract Announcement


Akatsuki Inc (TYO 3932): A $188M Net Net Japanese Game Developer

By Altay Capital

  • Akatsuki Inc (TYO 3932) is a net-net Japanese video game developer with 10 years of profitability.
  • They’re undergoing a big transformation in an effort to better compete globally by investing enormous amounts into their core development capabilities and increasing their average budget per game 3-6x.
  • They recently formed a capital alliance with Sony (6758) and Koei Tecmo (TYO 3635) with each taking a 10% and 8% stake respectively.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (29-May-2024): Samsung targets 1,000-layer 3D NAND by 2030.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Samsung aims to revolutionize memory technology by launching 1,000-layer 3D NAND by 2030, utilizing innovative materials for enhanced performance.
  • Lenovo expands its market reach with AI PCs targeting a global audience, but faces stiff competition amidst concerns over Indian restrictions on imported PCs and notebooks.
  • TSMC’s collaboration in Taiwan on 7nm tech brings together academia and industry, while China, Japan, and South Korea look to strengthen supply chains at a summit for mutual benefit. Samsung aims to increase its presence in China through collaboration.

Indian Energy Exchange: Do You Want to Earn a Royalty on India’s Economic Growth?

By Contrarian Cashflows

  • As one of the fastest-growing economies globally, India is projected to become the third-largest economy, trailing only China and the US, by 2027.
  • Amid macroeconomic challenges worldwide, investors are eager to tap into India’s robust economic growth.
  • However, economic growth does not always correlate with equity market growth, as seen in Spain and Italy during the 1980s and 1990s, and more recently in China.

Is Akeso’s Sell-Off a Long Waited Opportunity or a Long Overdue Correction?

By Eric Wen

  • Disputable Phase III result of Akeso’s (9926 HK) flagship pipeline Ivonescimab (AK112) caused Akeso’s share price to drop 28% in three days, reaching the bottom of a year-long trading range;
  • The fundamental difference of opinions is around Ivonescimab’s global prospects against (1) Merck’s Keytruda, (2) J&J’s Rybrevant, (3) Kelun’s SKB264 and domestic prospect against (4) Innovent’s IBI305;
  • Some answers are clear while others are now. What can provide answers are (1) SKB264‘s Phase III data, and to a lesser degree (2) AK112’s head-to-head trial against Keytruda.

Yahoo Still Falling Further Behind Amazon and Rakuten

By Michael Causton

  • LY (4689 JP)‘s Yahoo Shopping looks to be in trouble after five straight quarters of negative growth while Amazon and Rakuten move ahead.
  • Despite a revenue increase in 4Q2023, Yahoo Shopping continues to struggle with merchant fraud and a lack of a clear USP.
  • If effective integration between the many parts of LY is not forthcoming soon, the company may eventually attract demands for better synergies, as well as a stick-wielding Softbank.

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): The Outlook for 2024 Could Show Flat to Low Single-Digit Growth.

By Patrick Liao

  • UMC is currently forecasting a flat to low single digit growth QoQ for 3Q24, which is slight lower than consensus.
  • UMC has received orders from domestic and international clients. However, we believe it couldn’t be able to compensate for the loss of Samsung’s 28nm orders so far this year.
  • With accelerated construction in Singapore in 2024, the full-year capital expenditure has slightly risen to $3.3 billion.

Chariot Limited (AIM: CHAR): Drilling success onshore Morocco

By Auctus Advisors

  • The OBA-1 well onshore Morocco has encountered an approximate 70 m gross interval containing elevated resistivities coincident with elevated mud gas readings, indicating potential gas pays, with no water-bearing reservoirs identified.
  • While the approximate 200 m gross thickness for the reservoirs is in line with pre-drill expectations, the absence of water in the 70 m gross interval is particularly encouraging and could suggest larger than expected resources (12 bcf pre drill).
  • The well is now expected to be tested in 3Q24.

JTEC Corp (3446) – Facing Some Challenges over Lead Times

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Lengthening order lead times impacting revenue recognition – Q1-3 FY6/24 results were behind expectations in our view, with sales declining 27.6% YoY.
  • Whilst a negative optic, the reason stems from lengthening lead times for shipment, given customer demands for more high-end and exacting technical requirements for custom-made products requiring more time for delivery.
  • We believe this highlights the value-added technical expertise of the company and delays in revenue recognition. 

Virtuoso Optoelectronics Ltd- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • Virtuoso Optoelectronics (VOEPL IN)  is a contract manufacturer company engaged into production of ACs, Lightings and other equipments. The company is renowned for supplying ACs to Voltas.
  • The company has grown sharply over the last five years and has been engaging in constant capex. However, it does struggle in converting its earnings to cash.
  • Among the forensic checks, it nets off receivables and payables/advances, the exact nature of these line items cannot be commented upon. VOEPL also faces high cost of borrowings

DRX: Here We Go Again; Increasing TP on Contract Announcement

By Atrium Research

  • ADF announced a series of new contracts totalling $90M spanning the pharmaceutical, industrial, and public infrastructure sectors.
  • This includes additional work awarded for the pharmaceutical project in the Midwest U.S. which ADF was recently awarded phase 2 for.
  • ADF will be reporting Q1/25 on June 11th, we are expecting $90.1M revenue (12% YoY), 23.5% gross margin, and $17.2M EBITDA (19% margin).

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Daily Brief Macro: Smartkarma Webinar | Significant Shift in Fed Policy Expectations: Implications for ASEAN Markets and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Smartkarma Webinar | Significant Shift in Fed Policy Expectations: Implications for ASEAN Markets
  • Positioning Watch – AI (NVIDIA) is overshadowing everything else
  • India Politics: A Smaller Win for the BJP Not Necessarily a Bad Thing
  • The Week At A Glance: Another hawkish EUR-flation surprise?
  • Great Game – Israel and China testing boundaries
  • CX Daily: China’s Pension Plan Faces Prospect for Change or Going Bust
  • Car Crash | May 28, 2024
  • UK Politics: Pre-Election ‘Snapshots’
  • Active Asia Ex-Japan Funds: Top-Down Country Insights


Smartkarma Webinar | Significant Shift in Fed Policy Expectations: Implications for ASEAN Markets

By Smartkarma Research

  • In the next installment of our Webinar series, in collaboration with ASEAN Exchanges, we go live with Smartkarma Insight Provider Said Desaque
  • Courtesy of strong economic data, financial markets have significantly revised their expectations for Fed policy in 2024.
  • The June FOMC meeting is pivotal, with upcoming information potentially shaping forward guidance for the next year.
  • Ending quantitative tightening (QT) could have several implications for ASEAN credit markets, such as benefiting economies with substantial USD-denominated corporate borrowing.

Join us as Said Desaque shares his expert analysis on these developments and what they mean for the future of ASEAN financial markets.

The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 5 June 2024, 17:30 SGT/HKT.

Said Desaque is a professional economist with over 35 years of experience covering the global economy, with significant expertise in the US, China, Japan and emerging markets. He worked with US investment banks for over 25 years covering institutional investors in Europe, Middle East, Far East and Australia. Covers financial markets on a multi asset basis. Said has been an independent economist covering the global economy and financial markets for over 10 years since founding DeSaque Macro Research in London.


Positioning Watch – AI (NVIDIA) is overshadowing everything else

By Andreas Steno

  • Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.
  • Equities have been dragged higher over the past week after NVIDIA published yet another earnings surprise, and markets were funnily enough buying into other Tech equities on the back of NVIDIAs earnings – strengthening the argument as to why AI / NVIDIA has proven to be a major driver in the equity space.
  • Every single time NVIDIA or other GPU companies’ earnings surprise positively, we are witnessing a subsequent boom in the amount of AI related news, which are rapidly increasing at the moment.

India Politics: A Smaller Win for the BJP Not Necessarily a Bad Thing

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • Despite pre-election polls suggesting a landslide win for Modi’s party, lower turnout and a reliance on hard-handed campaign tactics suggest that the election is no walk in the park. 
  • With the BJP’s core vote maxed out in 2019, expanding its parliamentary majority will require harder-to-pick fruits beyond its traditional base. 
  • While more-ambitious parts of the economic reform agenda may be set back, improved checks and balances in India’s political system is by no means a negative. 

The Week At A Glance: Another hawkish EUR-flation surprise?

By Andreas Steno

  • Welcome to our weekly overview of the most important key figure releases and how to trade them.
  • We generally see a week of bad inflation news ahead of us and it will likely continue to emphasize recent trends in EUR (and GBP rates), also relative to USD rates.
  • EUR/USD (and GBP/USD) could continue to see support from relative rates as a consequence.

Great Game – Israel and China testing boundaries

By Mikkel Rosenvold

  • Welcome to this week’s Great Game after an eventful week in Geopolitics.
  • This week we cover four topics:Israel-Egypt border stand-off. Mexican election. Chinese drills around Taiwan.
  • Israel-Egypt border stand-off situation: An Egyptian soldier was killed after at minor exchange of fire with Israeli troops near the Gaza-Egypt border on Monday.

CX Daily: China’s Pension Plan Faces Prospect for Change or Going Bust

By Caixin Global

  • Pension / Cover Story: China’s pension plan faces prospect for change or going bust
  • Exports /China facing container shortage as exporters rush to beat looming U.S. tariffs
  • Personnel /Chinese foreign ministry promotes long-time spokesperson to vice minister

Car Crash | May 28, 2024

By Mark Tinker

  • Globalisation is unravelling rapidly The timing of the US tariff announcement was clearly political and aimed at voters and producers rather than consumers.
  • However, it marks an important shift in unravelling the world of Globalisation, as well as threatening EU unity and exposing the inherent contradictions in believing net zero is a job creating policy.
  • The timing of the announcement last week that the US would impose tariffs of 100% on Chinese exports of EVs, as well as varying % tariffs on steel, batteries, solar cells, and critical minerals was obviously political, as many of the key swing states in the upcoming US Election are facing intense competition from China and politicians need to promise jobs in order to get elected.

UK Politics: Pre-Election ‘Snapshots’

By Alastair Newton

  • Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s decision to call a general election earlier than expected has some economic and political rationale.
  • Despite this, it is likely that Sunak’s Conservative Party will face a significant loss.
  • The Labour Party, still affected by the events of 1992, is expected to be the main beneficiary of this defeat.

Active Asia Ex-Japan Funds: Top-Down Country Insights

By Steven Holden

  • South Korean Pivot:  Asia Ex-Japan investors move to overweight South Korea for the first time in our history, SK Hynix and Kia Corp among the beneficiaries. 
  • India Fatigue: Despite India’s outperformance and rising fund weights, managers show caution, with nearly 2/3rds of funds underweight the benchmark.
  • China All-Time Lows: China & HK fund weights have dropped significantly from 53.5% in 2020 to 34.8% today, just above a 13-year low, signaling a critical juncture for re-evaluation.

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Daily Brief Thailand: Valeura Energy Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Drilling success likely to add further resources


Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Drilling success likely to add further resources

By Auctus Advisors

  • Two wells recently drilled at Nong Yao are likely to add some reserves.
  • The 37H development well has been put on production from the primary reservoir at an initial flow rate of ~500 bbl/d net to Valeura’s WI.
  • The well has also encountered 68 feet of net oil pay across eight separate appraisal target intervals.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

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