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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Financials: Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Xinyi Glass Holdings, Mankind Pharma, Chang Hwa Commercial Bank, China Vanke , American International Group, Metlife Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Hot Topic Among Local Institutions in Recent Days: Utilizing COE in Value-Up Investing
  • Xinyi Glass (868): Beneficiary of Chinese RE Rejuvenation
  • Indian Companies Are Betting on Booming Capital Markets with Unplanned Fund Raisings
  • Chang Hwa Commercial Bank – April Monthly Profit Figures Suggest Slowing Growth
  • China Vanke – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • American International Group (AIG): What Has Been Their Path to Value Creation Post-Financial Crisis? – Major Drivers
  • MetLife Inc.: A Story Of Capital Deployment to Achieve Responsible Growth and Boost Shareholder Value! – Major Drivers


Hot Topic Among Local Institutions in Recent Days: Utilizing COE in Value-Up Investing

By Sanghyun Park

  • Local institutional investors were disappointed Kiwoom omitted COE from their value-up disclosure. They seek clearer plans to address low-yield assets and reduce COE.
  • Rapidly rising interest in COE among local institutional investors is now shaping the screening criteria for the Korea Exchange’s value-up index, possibly using COE as a primary factor for inclusion.
  • Competition likely centers on selecting and weighting stocks, including those beyond KOSPI 200. Key metric: COE linked with ROE.

Xinyi Glass (868): Beneficiary of Chinese RE Rejuvenation

By Henry Soediarko

  • The majority of its revenue comes from selling float glass, which is used in buildings and construction. 
  • The Chinese government has started home ownership relaxation that will reinvigorate the real estate market. 
  • It is still trading at 67% lower to 3 years ago. 

Indian Companies Are Betting on Booming Capital Markets with Unplanned Fund Raisings

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • With Indian capital markets booming, companies are tapping capital markets regularly for fundraising even though they have recently raised funds.
  • There are also cases where company after concluding IPO in recent years are going for fund raise
  • The market are jittery about possible equity dilution and unclear fund raising objectives

Chang Hwa Commercial Bank – April Monthly Profit Figures Suggest Slowing Growth

By Daniel Tabbush

  • April monthly data on pre-tax income shows slowing YoY growth compared with YTD growth
  • NIM pressure was severe in past six months and this can be a key driver of less profit growth
  • Credit costs in decline supported net profit delta, but this may not longer be sustainable

China Vanke – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess China Vanke’s ESG as “Adequate”. The company has “Adequate” scores for all three pillars. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Strong”.


American International Group (AIG): What Has Been Their Path to Value Creation Post-Financial Crisis? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • American International Group Inc. (AIG) reported a solid performance for the first quarter of 2024, showing significant improvements.
  • Peter Zaffino, the company’s Chairman and CEO, remarked on the steady growth witnessed this year, with the report indicating a 9% year-on-year increase in adjusted after-tax income, seeing it to $1.2 billion or $1.77 per diluted common share.
  • Some key factors driving this growth include the expansion of AIG’s operations, particularly via its General Insurance underwriting segment, which experienced a 19% year-over-year increase, translating to underwriting income of $596 million in Q1 2024.

MetLife Inc.: A Story Of Capital Deployment to Achieve Responsible Growth and Boost Shareholder Value! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • MetLife Inc. delivered solid financial results for the first quarter of 2024 with strong top-line growth, consistent execution, and sustained momentum.
  • The company reported adjusted earnings of $1.3 billion or $1.83 per share, up 20% per share from the prior year period, reflecting a partial rebound in variable investment income led by private equity gains.
  • Net income for the first quarter was $800 million, taking a sharp rise from $14 million from the prior year period.

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Daily Brief ESG: Why Are Companies with High Corporate Governance Practices Ratings More Profitable? and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Why Are Companies with High Corporate Governance Practices Ratings More Profitable?


Why Are Companies with High Corporate Governance Practices Ratings More Profitable?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Companies with higher ratings for Corporate Governance Practices (Board Practices and Key Actions) tend to have significantly higher profitability, market capitalization and valuations.
  • Foreign ownership has the highest correlation with the Metrical CG score, suggesting that years of overseas investor engagement have improved the companies’ corporate governance practices and profitability.
  • The pace of efforts varies with criteria of Corporate Governance Practices.  Companies with Metrical CG scores of over 70% are ahead in % independent directors and % female board members.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Trump Guilty and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Trump Guilty
  • #4 India Insight: India Gets S&P Upgrade, Adani Green Ambition Creates Doubt, Jio App Launch
  • Banks Prefer Bonds
  • China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | May 24-30, 2024
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]:NIO US/1810 HK/ LI US/BEKE US/981 HK/1347 HK/ACMR/9926 HK
  • [Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:700 HK/BIDU US/SE US/BABA US/1519 HK
  • China’s Internet Giants Lead the Way Raising $6.5 Billion Through Convertible Bonds
  • #8 Business Buzz: BHP’s Setback, China Fine on PwC, Tesla’s FSD in China, Slower US GDP, Twitter


Ohayo Japan | Trump Guilty

By Mark Chadwick

  • Donald Trump has been found guilty on all 34 counts of falsifying business records, sparking market concerns.
  • Stocks closed lower Thursday, led by Salesforce’s worst day in nearly two decades, down 19.7% on weak revenue.
  • Kansai Paint (4613) announced a share buyback of up to 80 billion yen, purchasing up to 40 million shares (19.01% of issued shares)

#4 India Insight: India Gets S&P Upgrade, Adani Green Ambition Creates Doubt, Jio App Launch

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • S&P Upgrades India’s Outlook: Positive Signals for the Indian Economy
  • Jio Financial Services Launches ‘JioFinance’ App: A Leap Towards Digital Financial Inclusion
  • Adani Green ambitions are running short says global analyst; raising concern on capital and returns

Banks Prefer Bonds

By Rikki Malik

  • The JGB  market is doing the BoJ’s work for it
  • Japanese financials will continue to perform in this market environment
  • US bonds follow the same pattern as inflation and bond issuance rises

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | May 24-30, 2024

By Robert Ciemniak

  • This note is a weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
  • We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
  • We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources

[Blue Lotus Daily]:NIO US/1810 HK/ LI US/BEKE US/981 HK/1347 HK/ACMR/9926 HK

By Eric Wen

  • NIO US/1810 HK/ LI US: EV sales in the 20th week of 2024 NIO, Xiaomi and LI performed well(/////)
  • BEKE US: Shanghai implements central government policies to further stimulate property market demand from nine aspects.(+)
  • 981 HK/1347 HK/1810 HK/ACMR/China semiconductor: China launches Big Fund III to support semiconductor development (+)

[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:700 HK/BIDU US/SE US/BABA US/1519 HK

By Ying Pan

  • 700 HK: Tencent’s <DNF Mobile> achieved nearly RMB 1 bn gross billings in the first week of the operation(+)
  • 700 HK: Tencent will release a mobile version of the classic basketball game <NBA 2K All-Star>. (+)
  • BIDU US: Baidu Apollo received complaints from users in the important city of Wuhan, saying that autonomous driving caused traffic congestion(/)

China’s Internet Giants Lead the Way Raising $6.5 Billion Through Convertible Bonds

By Caixin Global

  • More Chinese technology companies might turn to convertible bonds after Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and JD.com Inc. raised a combined $6.5 billion through such notes, said UBS, the joint book runner for JD.com’s issuance.
  • Both enterprises said the proceeds will be used for share buybacks, which are expected to boost their stock prices and show some positive signs in the capital market for other Chinese tech companies, Selina Cheung, co-head of UBS Asia equity capital markets, said Tuesday.
  • Chinese e-commerce giant JD.com announced the completion of its $2 billion offering of convertible senior notes last Thursday.

#8 Business Buzz: BHP’s Setback, China Fine on PwC, Tesla’s FSD in China, Slower US GDP, Twitter

By Nimish Maheshwari


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Daily Brief ECM: Shift Up IPO: Valuation Insights and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Shift Up IPO: Valuation Insights
  • AMMB Holdings Placement – Last Selldown Did Well, This One Will Remove the Overhang


Shift Up IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George

  • Shift Up (462870 KS) is Korea’s leading game development studio. It is seeking to raise up to US$320 million.
  • We previously discussed the IPO in Shift Up IPO: The Investment Case
  • We examine the syndicate’s valuation methodology. Our analysis suggests that Shift Up is attractively valued in the IPO price range. We would participate in the IPO.

AMMB Holdings Placement – Last Selldown Did Well, This One Will Remove the Overhang

By Clarence Chu

  • ANZ Funds is looking to raise around US$149m from selling its remaining stake in AMMB Holdings (AMM MK).
  • ANZ has sold the majority of its stake in AMMB earlier in Mar 2024. Coming to markets again to sell its remaining stake, the deal here should be well flagged.
  • In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Shui On Land and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Shui On Land
  • Morning Views Asia: Fosun International, Lenovo, Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust, NTPC Ltd, Rakuten


Morning Views Asia: Shui On Land

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Morning Views Asia: Fosun International, Lenovo, Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust, NTPC Ltd, Rakuten

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Exedy (7278) Huge Offering Resized – Watch the Dynamics Here and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Exedy (7278) Huge Offering Resized – Watch the Dynamics Here
  • Infocom (4348 JP) – Reports of an Exclusive Negotiation May Give Hints
  • Detailed Summary of Today’s Second Trial Ruling in Chey Tae-Won’s Divorce Case Involving SK Inc
  • Kansai Paint (4613) – Going Hard with a BIG Buyback and More Capital Moves Beyond
  • Zomato Placement Lockup Expiry – US$800m Overhang
  • Legal Complications on Put Options on SSG.Com to Result in Ongoing Concerns for Emart and Shinsegae
  • Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 24: US$1.1bn Index Inflow for Engie if Nokia’s Rank Falls by ONE
  • SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: 4 Changes as Review Period Ends Today
  • Brookfield to Launch Mandatory Offer for Neoen


Exedy (7278) Huge Offering Resized – Watch the Dynamics Here

By Travis Lundy

  • On Monday 27 May, Aisin (7259 JP) announced an offering to sell ALL of its 36+% stake in equity affiliate Exedy Corp (7278 JP) for likely ¥40bn+. 
  • Exedy announced a big buyback to go with it. It bought back 30% of the total on Weds morning, and that reduced the size of the offer. 
  • I had expected “short-term games” but we haven’t really had them. Which is a bit weird. This update shows the details and dynamics (they differ).

Infocom (4348 JP) – Reports of an Exclusive Negotiation May Give Hints

By Travis Lundy


Detailed Summary of Today’s Second Trial Ruling in Chey Tae-Won’s Divorce Case Involving SK Inc

By Sanghyun Park

  • The first trial in December 2022 ordered Chey to pay 67.5 billion KRW; today’s ruling increased this to 1.38 trillion KRW plus 2 billion KRW, including splitting SK Inc. shares.
  • The increased settlement and SK Inc. share split could spark a management rights battle, causing SK Inc.’s stock price to jump as investors and shareholders react.
  • It may take a year for the final verdict, making a sustained stock price increase unlikely. Yet, differences between trial rulings could alter Chey’s SK Inc. stake, sustaining market interest.

Kansai Paint (4613) – Going Hard with a BIG Buyback and More Capital Moves Beyond

By Travis Lundy

  • 24mos ago, Kansai Paint (4613 JP) announced a new MTMP, a large buyback, and plans to unwind cross-holdings. Big. 15mos ago a large secondary offering kicked off the festivities.
  • Key was Toyota sold. Then KP could sell its Toyota shares – two-thirds of its cross-holdings. The offering was one to buy. A buyback followed. KP vs Nippon Paint doubled.
  • KP offered a CB recently with the delta hedge done by TN-3. Now there is a HUGE new buyback. Really big. This gets rid of more cross-holders. And there’s more.

Zomato Placement Lockup Expiry – US$800m Overhang

By Sumeet Singh

  • Antfin will come out of its placement linked lockup for its remaining stake in Zomato soon.
  • Ant Group had earlier sold some of its stake in Nov 2023 and Mar 2024. It still has over US$800m worth of shares left to sell.
  • In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Legal Complications on Put Options on SSG.Com to Result in Ongoing Concerns for Emart and Shinsegae

By Douglas Kim

  • Emart and Shinsegae are facing concerns about put options of nearly 1 trillion won on private equity investors’ investment in SSG.com nearly six years ago. 
  • From AEP and BRV’s point of views, they want to get their money back through put options since an IPO is not likely in the near term.
  • The most probable result appears to be that this is likely to be dragged on for some time, which will cause continued concerns on both Emart and Shinsegae. 

Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 24: US$1.1bn Index Inflow for Engie if Nokia’s Rank Falls by ONE

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The ES50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked and followed indices in Europe and the annual index review takes place in September every year.
  • This annual index rebal event usually results in some of the most significant index flow events in Europe every year, typically amounting to billions of dollars of flows.
  • In this insight, we take a look the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the upcoming index review in September 2024.

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: 4 Changes as Review Period Ends Today

By Brian Freitas

  • With one day left in the review period, we see 4 potential changes for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) at the June rebalance.
  • Berli Jucker (BJC TB) could be added to the index following the market consultation that lowered the inclusion thresholds for Average Daily Trading Values and Turnover ratios.
  • An equally weighted basket of potential adds has outperformed the potential deletes but there has been a deterioration in performance over the last month.

Brookfield to Launch Mandatory Offer for Neoen

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Brookfield (BN CN) has entered exclusive negotiations with the top shareholders of Neoen (NEOEN FP) to acquire a 53.32% stake at €39.85/share, 26.9% premium, which will trigger a mandatory offer.
  • The offer represents 15.1x EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA vs. the median of peers at 9.3x. My fair-value estimate (DCF-based) is €33.76/share, therefore the offer is generous, in my view.
  • Expect the shares to close the spread tomorrow and trade around 3% gross spread and the convertibles to price higher (2% 06/25 at around €51.85, 2.875% 09/27 around 111.72%).

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: The Beat Ideas: Action Construction – A Bet on Manufacturing & Infrastructure Theme and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • The Beat Ideas: Action Construction – A Bet on Manufacturing & Infrastructure Theme
  • TechChain Insights: Call with Himax, How New In-Car Displays Can Quadruple Chip Content Per Vehicle
  • Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) – Solidifying Growth Prospects
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (31-May-2024): Groundhog Tech eyes SEA growth as 5G expands.
  • How to Own Lenovo at a Discount: BUY Legend Holdings Corp (3396 HK)
  • BQE: Decent Q1 Financials; Recurring Revenue Up 114% YoY
  • Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD) – Friday, Mar 1, 2024
  • China Medical System (CMS, 867 HK) – A Cheap Play on China’s Pending Health Care Crisis
  • Arlo Technologies Inc (ARLO) – Wednesday, Feb 28, 2024
  • VAALCO Energy (NYSE: EGY): Very good operating update in Canada


The Beat Ideas: Action Construction – A Bet on Manufacturing & Infrastructure Theme

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Action Construction – a leader in construction and heavy equipment theme is going for transformation with a defence foray and new product launches
  • With strong guidance and the historical success of good execution makes a good bet on the current infrastructure and manufacturing theme
  • The risk includes a slowdown in the election period and stiff competition from larger players

TechChain Insights: Call with Himax, How New In-Car Displays Can Quadruple Chip Content Per Vehicle

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • We hosted a conference call recently with Himax management, the global leader in automotive touch display controllers; the company is experiencing a uniquely stronger automotive supply/demand environment than some peers.
  • Discussed in detail how larger or more sophisticated interior displays can drive higher dollar content of display controllers per vehicle. We examine trending new car designs with much larger displays.
  • We forecast an exponential jump-up in display controller content value per vehicle as beautiful display designs are becoming key USP for auto brands; Maintain our Structural Long rating for Himax.

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) – Solidifying Growth Prospects

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (Alfamart) booked a solid set of 1Q2024 results, a testament to its resilience during an election period, with the seasonal impact of Lebaran. 
  • Minimarkets continue to be the winning format in Indonesia and Alfamart continued to gain share during 1Q2024, neck and neck with Salim-backed Indomaret if you include Alfamidi, Lawson, and Dan+Dan. 
  • Alfamart will slow store openings to 1,300 stores this year after adding more than 1,800 outlets in 2023, with growth prospects remaining positive and profitability intact with a 25% ROE. 

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (31-May-2024): Groundhog Tech eyes SEA growth as 5G expands.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Groundhog Tech focuses on expanding 5G in SE Asia to drive growth in the region’s tech industry
  • Skymizer introduces ET2 LPU and LLM system platform to enter the chip IP market and enhance its offerings
  • Samsung increases staff at Japan lab for chip packaging innovations, while Malaysia plans to invest in chip ecosystem development

How to Own Lenovo at a Discount: BUY Legend Holdings Corp (3396 HK)

By David Mudd

  • Legend Holdings Corp H (3396 HK) owns 31% of Lenovo (992 HK) , the number one global PC maker
  • Lenovo is a leader selling AI enabled PC’s globally.  Its server business is growing rapidly through strong demand for generative AI.  Legend is the leading AI seed investor in China.
  • Technical pattern strong for Lenovo reaching a 9 year high.  Legend showing increasing momentum from an historic trough valuation level

BQE: Decent Q1 Financials; Recurring Revenue Up 114% YoY

By Atrium Research

  • BQE reported Q1 financial results yesterday where the highlight was 114% YoY growth in its recurring operation services segment.
  • Technical services revenue was weak however, leading to a slight miss on proportional revenue ($3.4M vs. $3.8M expected) and margins.
  • Management’s outlook remained bullish, expecting operation services revenue continuing to grow rapidly and technical services revenue catch back up in H2.

Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD) – Friday, Mar 1, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Zscaler missed billings estimates and lowered full-year revenue guidance due to extended sales cycles and deal closures delays
  • Declining performances in the cybersecurity sector indicate potential underperformance for Crowdstrike
  • Author predicts potential significant miss in Crowdstrike’s upcoming earnings based on current trends in the market

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


China Medical System (CMS, 867 HK) – A Cheap Play on China’s Pending Health Care Crisis

By Avien Pillay

  • A high disease burden, high demand for chronic treatment, and an ageing population makes China an excellent opportunity for an established pharma company.
  • A transition period following the inclusion of four large drugs in the NDRL creates an opportunity following a big de-rating.
  • With 1/3 of the market cap in cash, a healthy payout ratio, and a FPE of under 8, CMS is one of the bargain beneficiaries in the Chinese healthcare space.

Arlo Technologies Inc (ARLO) – Wednesday, Feb 28, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Anticipate significant downward revision in Arlo Technologies’ long-term revenue guidance
  • Management’s lack of transparency regarding key performance indicators may have misled investors
  • Initiate a short position before Feb. 29th guidance update to benefit from potential share price decline.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


VAALCO Energy (NYSE: EGY): Very good operating update in Canada

By Auctus Advisors

  • VAALCO has brought online four new long (2.75 mile) lateral wells in Canada.
  • Three wells delivered IP rates of 500 bbl/d while the fourth well flowed 350 bbl/d for a total production capacity addition of 1.85 mbbl/d.
  • This is a good result and compares with individual IP30 oil rates of 374-444 bbl/d achieved at the two wells drilled in 2023.

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Daily Brief Australia: Pointerra Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Pointerra Ltd – Capital raise shores up balance sheet


Pointerra Ltd – Capital raise shores up balance sheet

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • RaaS Research Group has published an update report on 3D spatial data solutions group Pointerra (ASX:3DP) following its share placement to raise $2.05m before costs at $0.033/share.
  • We had previously factored in a $2.5m raise into our forecasts in H1 FY25 and have now adjusted our model to include the recent raise in our forecasts.
  • Based on our estimates, we don’t expect Pointerra to return to the market for additional equity before it reaches EBITDA break-even (H1 FY25 in our estimates).

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Daily Brief Crypto: Crypto Moves #30 – The European Union’s MiCA Removes Tether from the Market and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Crypto Moves #30 – The European Union’s MiCA Removes Tether from the Market


Crypto Moves #30 – The European Union’s MiCA Removes Tether from the Market

By Mads Eberhardt

  • Recently, we have discussed the significant positive shift in the U.S. regulatory environment for crypto.
  • You might be weary of regulatory discussions, but we need to address the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) framework.
  • This framework is set to take full effect on December 30, 2024.

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Daily Brief Macro: CX Daily: Mega Blunder Adds to Li Auto’s Troubles as Huawei Rivalry Hots Up and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • CX Daily: Mega Blunder Adds to Li Auto’s Troubles as Huawei Rivalry Hots Up
  • Inflation Watch – Is goods-flation a bigger issue for the BoE and the ECB than the Fed?


CX Daily: Mega Blunder Adds to Li Auto’s Troubles as Huawei Rivalry Hots Up

By Caixin Global

  • Li Auto / In Depth: Mega blunder adds to Li Auto’s troubles as Huawei rivalry hots up 
  • Insights /Overcapacity: could be repurposed as ‘Chinese Marshall Plan,’ expert says
  • Credit /: China’s credit demand sluggish as economic sentiment sours, expert says

Inflation Watch – Is goods-flation a bigger issue for the BoE and the ECB than the Fed?

By Andreas Steno

  • With the release of freight rate data earlier today, there are still good reasons to believe that goods inflation will arrive throughout the summer across USD, EUR and GBP inflation.
  • While the exact impact and lags of rising containerized freight prices are yet to be discovered, it’s possible to study which markets will be hit hardest should goods inflation rise through a simple “what-if” study.
  • The increase in freight rates seem to have cooled a bit compared to April / early May, but we are still placed around 3-5% in weekly increases across the key routes globally, and the current “no news from Gaza” scenario leaves few arguments as to why the increase should suddenly stop over the coming months, especially given the futures curve hinting at substantially higher freight rates.

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