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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief China: China Boqi Environmental Hol, S.F. Holding, Prosus NV, Sihuan Pharmaceutical Hldgs, Geely Auto, Plover Bay Technologies, China Gas Holdings, CiDi Inc, XPeng , Zhuzhou Tianqiao Crane Company and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Boqi Env (2377 HK)’s Partial Offer
  • SF Holding H Share Listing: Updates Point to Improving Fundamentals
  • NPN X PRX: Swiggy Lists, Tencent 3Q FY24 Results, Market Awaits H1 FY25 Results and Strategy Update
  • Sihuan Pharmaceutical (460 HK): Buybacks, Now A Spin-Off
  • Geely (175 HK): 3Q24, Revenue up by 20% and Operating Profit up by 129% (2nd Largest in China)
  • Plover Bay 1523 HK: Parsing the Profit Alert, And A Few Updates
  • China Gas Holdings (384 HK): Assessing the Spin-Off of Value-Added Business
  • CiDi Inc. Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • [XPeng Inc. (XPEV US, SELL, TP US$5) Company Update]: Material and Component Pricing Drove Cost Down
  • How Crane’s Process Flow Technologies Are Quietly Powering Revenue Growth!


Boqi Env (2377 HK)’s Partial Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 23rd October,  flue gas treatment play China Boqi Environmental Hol (2377 HK) announced a buyback of 15% of shares out, at HK$1.20/share, a 16.5% premium to undisturbed.
  • The upshot of the buyback lifts the stake of co-founder Zeng Zhijun and concert parties  to 32.59% – up from 27.71% – before options. A whitewash waiver is required.
  • A expected, the Offer Doc has now been delayed. It is now expected to be dispatched on or before the 29th November. 

SF Holding H Share Listing: Updates Point to Improving Fundamentals

By Arun George

  • S.F. Holding (002352 CH), the largest Asian integrated logistics service provider, is premarketing an H Share listing to raise US$1.0-1.5 billion, according to press reports.
  • SF is the largest integrated logistics service player in China and Asia and the fourth largest player globally in terms of revenue in 2023, according to Frost & Sullivan.   
  • The PHIP update shows that the business is in good health, with a return to growth, rising margins, and strong cash generation. Therefore, a premium multiple to peers is justified.

NPN X PRX: Swiggy Lists, Tencent 3Q FY24 Results, Market Awaits H1 FY25 Results and Strategy Update

By Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

  • It has been an eventful week for Naspers and Prosus – Tencent reported 3Q FY24 results yesterday after the HK close and Swiggy listed on the NSE and BSE.
  • Prosus sold shares in Swiggy worth $500m and retains an interest of 25% (fully diluted basis).
  • Since 2017, Naspers and Prosus invested $1.3bn to build a 31% stake. The group have created $2bn of value for shareholders following the listing.

Sihuan Pharmaceutical (460 HK): Buybacks, Now A Spin-Off

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 6th October, Sihuan Pharmaceutical Hldgs (460 HK) announced a HK$500mn, 12-month buyback programme. Shares jumped 31% on the news, but have since given all that gain back.
  • Sihuan Pharma has now announced an intention to spin-off non-wholly-owned subsidiary Xuanzhu Biopharm on the HKEx. 
  • Concurrent with the spin-off news. Sihuan Pharma acquired 6.9% in Xuanzhu Biopharm for RMB596mn, implying a full value of ~RMB8.5bn (~HK$9.2bn). This compares to Sihuan Pharma’s market cap of HK$6.6bn. 

Geely (175 HK): 3Q24, Revenue up by 20% and Operating Profit up by 129% (2nd Largest in China)

By Ming Lu

  • Geely’s revenue grew by 20% YoY and deliveries increased by 19% YoY in 3Q24.
  • The operating margin improved to 5.3% in 3Q24 versus 2.9% in 3Q23.
  • We conclude an upside of 58% and a price target of HK$22 for the end of 2025.

Plover Bay 1523 HK: Parsing the Profit Alert, And A Few Updates

By Sameer Taneja

  • Plover Bay Technologies (1523 HK) issued a profit alert stating that the profit for the first 10 months of FY24 grew by>10% over the entire FY23 profit (28 mn USD). 
  • Nov/Dec tend to be decent business months for the company, so we expect the profit to be a little over 40 million USD for FY24, implying a 17-18x FY24 PE.  
  • The company has net cash of more than 50 mn USD and consistent ROEs of more than 35% (currently >65%), with excellent prospects for future growth.

China Gas Holdings (384 HK): Assessing the Spin-Off of Value-Added Business

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • The spin-off of the value-added business (VAS) of China Gas Holdings (384 HK) may add HK$0.22-0.83/share to the stock price, or 3.4-12.8%, based on our initial assessment.
  • VAS generated an operating profit of HK$1.58bn in FY24, up by 5.7% YoY. It is significant to China Gas as this accounted for 23.5% of its total segment profit.
  • The share price has not reacted much to the news because weak Chinese equity market and uncertainties on the upcoming 1H FY25 result. Once cleared, we see good upside.

CiDi Inc. Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Nicholas Tan

  • CiDi Inc (CIDI HK) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by CICC, China Securities and Ping An.
  • It is a leading provider of autonomous driving technology for commercial vehicles in China.
  • It focuses on research and development of autonomous mining and logistics trucks, V2X technologies and high-performance perception solutions.

[XPeng Inc. (XPEV US, SELL, TP US$5) Company Update]: Material and Component Pricing Drove Cost Down

By Eric Wen

  • C3Q24 results from LEAP Motors seems to indicate the profit margins of low-priced EV can reach high single digits.
  • We thus revised up XPEV’s 2024-25 top line by 8% and 28% on successful launch of P7+, 2024-25 gross margins by 0.6ppt and 1.7ppt
  • Despite these improvements, we opt to maintain the rating of SELL and TP of US$5 unchanged as XPEV’s path to profitability is still unclear.

How Crane’s Process Flow Technologies Are Quietly Powering Revenue Growth!

By Baptista Research

  • Crane Company recently presented its third-quarter 2024 financial results, showcasing several key highlights and challenges.
  • The company’s performance this quarter was marked by a solid increase in both core sales and earnings per share, despite encountering multiple operational disruptions.
  • Firstly, Crane demonstrated robust financial performance by exceeding expectations, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rising to $1.38.

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Daily Brief Japan: Nec Networks & System Integr, Macromill, Inc, Renewable Japan, Appier Group, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Freee KK, Sankyo Co Ltd, Cyber Security Cloud Inc, MarketEnterprise Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • NEC Network (1973 JP) Tender Offer – The Landscape Has Fully Changed
  • CVC Offers ¥1150 for Macromill (3978) – Wrong Price, Wrong Register – Expect Activism or An Overbid
  • Macromill (3978 JP): CVC’s Light Tender Offer at JPY1,150 Begs for Activism
  • Renewable Japan (9522 JP): Tokyu Fudosan (3289 JP)-Sponsored MBO Set at a 132% Takeover Premium
  • Appier (4180) | Record Quarter
  • EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility – Consistently Declining Volatility Amid Mixed Markets
  • Freee 1Q: Turns Profitable Sooner Than We Expected
  • Sankyo (6417) – Thursday, Aug 15, 2024
  • Cyber Security Cloud Inc (4493 JP): Q3 FY12/24 flash update
  • MarketEnterprise Co Ltd (3135 JP): Q1 FY06/25 flash update


NEC Network (1973 JP) Tender Offer – The Landscape Has Fully Changed

By Travis Lundy

  • On 29-October, NEC Corp (6701 JP) announced a low-ball TOB to buy out subsidiary Nec Networks & System Integr (1973 JP). It deserved activism, but finding an activist was tough.
  • On 7 November, it got an activist, and I wrote on 8-November the Landscape Had Changed that they might have bought 6mm shares more in 5 days. They bought 8.4mm.
  • The Landscape Has FULLY Changed. The details now matter quite a bit. NEC has two basic choices. Neither are that palatable. But Target Advisor DCF was ¥3,073-4,688 without synergies.

CVC Offers ¥1150 for Macromill (3978) – Wrong Price, Wrong Register – Expect Activism or An Overbid

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, CVC announced a deal to buy out Macromill, Inc (3978 JP). It is agreed and supported by management and the Board. 
  • The shareholder register on this stock is wide open. It is not burdened by crossholders. It IS burdened by 7 large active holders who have 55%. 
  • Those holders may complain about the process, the transparency, and the low price. This could be a target for an activist or a strategic overbidder.

Macromill (3978 JP): CVC’s Light Tender Offer at JPY1,150 Begs for Activism

By Arun George

  • Macromill, Inc (3978 JP) has recommended CVC’s tender offer at JPY1,150, a 40.1% premium to the last close.
  • While the offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, it is 41% below the IPO price and 11% below the midpoint IFA DCF valuation range. 
  • The lack of an irrevocable, open shareholder register and large foreign institutions’ shareholding increases the odds of activism to force a bump.  

Renewable Japan (9522 JP): Tokyu Fudosan (3289 JP)-Sponsored MBO Set at a 132% Takeover Premium

By Arun George

  • Renewable Japan (9522 JP) has recommended a Tokyu Fudosan Holdings (3289 JP)-sponsored MBO at JPY1,250 per share, a 132.3% premium to the last close.
  • The high takeover premium reflects the 55% YTD decline in the share price. While the timing is opportunistic, the offer is attractive compared to peer multiples. 
  • The irrevocables and low required minority acceptance rate ensure that this is a done deal. The tender runs from 15 November to 8 January 2025 (34 business days).

Appier (4180) | Record Quarter

By Mark Chadwick

  • In Q3 FY24, Appier achieved record-breaking revenue, reaching JPY 9.1 billion, marking a 28% year-over-year growth.
  • Operating income for Q3 surged by 2.5 times YoY to JPY 788 million, with the operating margin improving by 4.3 percentage points to 8.7%.
  • At less than 4x EV/Sales and 16x FY25 EBITDA the stock does not appear expensive.

EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility – Consistently Declining Volatility Amid Mixed Markets

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Observing implied volatility across 16 markets plus gold provides a picture of falling implied volatility, despite dispersion in market performance.
  • Several, but not all, markets display moderation from unusual volatility levels to a more balanced implied volatility structure.
  • The realignment of implied volatility across markets presents potential relative value opportunities.

Freee 1Q: Turns Profitable Sooner Than We Expected

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Freee KK (4478 JP) reported 1QFY06/2025 results which saw the company generating its first-ever Adj. operating profit, earlier than we expected.
  • The company has begun capitalising its software assets (decline in R&D costs as % of revenue) and this coupled with fall in S&M costs have contributed to profits.
  • The corporate paying customers surpassed more than 200k for the first time and we expect freee’s earnings to continue to improve going forward.

Sankyo (6417) – Thursday, Aug 15, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Sankyo, a Japanese company previously seen as a value trap, has made changes to enhance shareholder value
  • The company has implemented share buybacks, acquiring 24% of shares in the last year and leading to a higher valuation
  • The focus on capital efficiency and returning value to shareholders has revitalized Sankyo, leading to increased investor confidence and potential future growth opportunities

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Cyber Security Cloud Inc (4493 JP): Q3 FY12/24 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue reached JPY2.8bn (+26.2% YoY), with operating profit at JPY697mn (+48.7% YoY) and recurring profit at JPY699mn (+40.4% YoY).
  • Companywide ARR was JPY3.8bn (+25.3% YoY), with subscription-based recurring revenue accounting for 93.8% of total revenue.
  • User count for Shadankun, WafCharm, and SIDfm increased, with low churn rates and varying revenue per user growth.

MarketEnterprise Co Ltd (3135 JP): Q1 FY06/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue reached JPY5.5bn (+33.7% YoY), driven by growth in Second-hand Online and Mobile & Telecommunications segments.
  • Operating profit turned positive at JPY69mn, with a 1.3% margin, despite JPY68mn in relocation expenses.
  • The company recorded a JPY32mn derivatives valuation loss due to a stock price decline in a CFD contract.

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Daily Brief United States: Applied Materials, CCC Intelligent Solutions Hold, Shell PLC, Cadence Design Sys, Eventbrite Inc, Bitcoin, Leggett & Platt, Balchem Corp, Cavco Industries, Ford Motor Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Applied Materials: The Stock Is Reasonably Valued on Modest Expectations. More Attractive than ASML.
  • CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings Inc.: Can Its Adoption of New Solutions Give Them A Competitive Edge? – Major Drivers
  • [Earnings Review] Shell Exceeds Expectations as Robust LNG Sales Counter Weak Refining Margins
  • Cadence Design Systems: Its Efforts Towards Diversification & Growth in System Design & Analysis & Other Major Drivers
  • EB: Ticketing a Turnaround
  • Crypto Moves #52 – Are You Ready for Altcoin Season?
  • Leggett & Platt’s Innovation Push: Will New Product Launches & Tech Upgrades Drive a Turnaround? – Major Drivers
  • Balchem Corporation: An Analysis Of Its Expanded Product Portfolio & Other Major Drivers
  • Cavco Industries Inc.: Enhancements in Sales Strategies & Market Penetration As A Critical Growth Lever! – Major Drivers
  • Is Ford’s Future on the Line? The Impact of Trump’s Tariffs and EV Tax Cuts Explained!


Applied Materials: The Stock Is Reasonably Valued on Modest Expectations. More Attractive than ASML.

By Nicolas Baratte

  • Management reiterates 1) growth accelerating on Advanced Logic (Gate All Around, Back Side Power), Advanced Packaging incl HBM, DRAM capacity additions  2) improving margins  3) energy-efficient computing driving materials innovation.
  • The risk is Mature node Capex slowdown in China, which we think is underestimated for 2025. China revenue: AMAT 30%, ASML 47%.
  • AMAT is trading at reasonable multiples on modest Consensus expectations, upside possible as 2nm and HBM accelerate. ASML is trading on rich multiples, on rich expectations, less room for upside.

CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings Inc.: Can Its Adoption of New Solutions Give Them A Competitive Edge? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • CCC Intelligent Solutions’ third-quarter fiscal 2024 performance highlighted both consistent financial growth and evolving challenges within the insurance and vehicle repair industries.
  • The company reported a total revenue of $238 million, reflecting an 8% increase year-over-year, slightly exceeding their guidance range.
  • Adjusted EBITDA was $102 million, a 9% improvement from the previous year, supporting a strengthened adjusted EBITDA margin of 43%.

[Earnings Review] Shell Exceeds Expectations as Robust LNG Sales Counter Weak Refining Margins

By Suhas Reddy

  • Shell’s Q2 revenue fell by 7.4% YoY and its adjusted earnings dropped by 3.1%. However, its revenue and EPS surpassed analyst expectations by 2.3% and 13.1%, respectively.
  • Shell’s free cash flow rose 44.4% YoY to USD 10.8 billion, while its net debt fell to its lowest since 2015, dropping by 13.1% YoY to USD 35.2 billion.
  • Shell’s LNG sales grew 6.4% YoY, while oil and gas production earnings rose 9% YoY, supported by a 3.1% production increase from new fields.

Cadence Design Systems: Its Efforts Towards Diversification & Growth in System Design & Analysis & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Cadence Design Systems, Inc. reported its financial results for the third quarter of 2024, recording impressive performance across various aspects of its business.
  • Total revenue for the quarter surpassed $1.2 billion, reflecting a 19% year-over-year growth.
  • This was accompanied by a non-GAAP operating margin of 44.8% and non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $1.64.

EB: Ticketing a Turnaround

By Hamed Khorsand

  • EB showed a gradual sequential improvement in operating metrics in the third quarter. EB is anticipating greater positive gains in the number of event creators in the fourth quarter
  • EB reported third quarter revenue of $77.8 million compared to our estimate of $76.1 million. EB did have a year over year decline in paid tickets and paying creators. 
  • EB is projecting Q4 revenue of $74 million to $77 million and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 10 percent. We were anticipating revenue of $74 million due to the seasonality.

Crypto Moves #52 – Are You Ready for Altcoin Season?

By Mads Eberhardt

  • In Crypto Moves #18 from early March this year, we referred to this crypto bull market as the least speculative in the history of the crypto market.
  • By Crypto Moves #35 in early July, we reaffirmed this view.
  • Meanwhile, during this period, Bitcoin had outpaced almost every other altcoin.

Leggett & Platt’s Innovation Push: Will New Product Launches & Tech Upgrades Drive a Turnaround? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Leggett & Platt’s third quarter 2024 results reflect a challenging performance environment driven by several demand and operational pressures.
  • Overall sales amounted to $1.1 billion, representing a 6% decline year-over-year.
  • The decrease was primarily attributed to volume declines across all three business segments—Bedding Products, Specialized Products, and Furniture, Flooring and Textile Products—coupled with reductions in raw material-related selling prices.

Balchem Corporation: An Analysis Of Its Expanded Product Portfolio & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Balchem Corporation’s third-quarter results for 2024 highlight its resilience and adaptability amid a mixed economic environment, showcasing strengths that bolster its growth potential while also signaling areas for investor caution.
  • The company posted impressive financial results, with revenues reaching $240 million, a 4.3% increase compared to the previous year.
  • This growth was mainly driven by robust performances in the Human Nutrition & Health and Specialty Products segments.

Cavco Industries Inc.: Enhancements in Sales Strategies & Market Penetration As A Critical Growth Lever! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Cavco Industries, Inc. has presented its second quarter results for the fiscal year 2025, reflecting a period mixed with challenges and growth opportunities.
  • As a manufacturer of manufactured homes, modular homes, park model RVs, and commercial structures, Cavco’s performance in the quarter was notably impacted by external factors, particularly Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which caused disruptions in the Southeast United States, a key market for the company.
  • Despite these disruptions, the company’s proactive measures and resilience contributed to minimal operational damage and a swift recovery, showcasing strong crisis management.

Is Ford’s Future on the Line? The Impact of Trump’s Tariffs and EV Tax Cuts Explained!

By Baptista Research

  • Ford Motor Company presented its results for the third quarter of 2024, revealing a blend of strategic maneuvers and ongoing challenges.
  • The earnings call highlighted several key points that could form the basis of an investment thesis.
  • On the positive side, Ford has demonstrated significant progress in restructuring its global operations.

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Daily Brief Singapore: Grab Holdings , AEM, SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – High-Value Products Take the Helm
  • Aem: Hoping for Better 2025
  • Tire Industry: Premium Brands Exit Small-Rim Market Amidst Rising Competition


Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – High-Value Products Take the Helm

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Grab booked an impressive performance in 3Q2024, with strong evidence of its high-value products such as advance bookings gaining traction along with increasing monthly transacting users through its Saver offering. 
  • The company’s delivery business benefitted from strong performance from GrabMart and GrabFood. Its Grab Unlimited subscription hit record new highs, with users transacting four times as frequently as non-users.
  • Grab also saw a strong performance from GrabFin and its digital banks, which all started lending in November plus rapid deposit growth. Guidance increased reflecting a more positive outlook. 

Aem: Hoping for Better 2025

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • AEM (AEM SP) released 3Q24 numbers and bumped its guidance higher as its key customer pulled forward some orders.
  • In 2025 it will be the first year where customers outside of Intel will make up the majority of AEM’s revenues. This is a big milestone for AEM.
  • Continued business from Intel and growth in new key accounts means we should expect FY25 revenue growth. Guidance for FY25 will come by February 2025. 

Tire Industry: Premium Brands Exit Small-Rim Market Amidst Rising Competition

By Farah Miller

  • Premium brands focus on high-value large rims, leaving small-rim markets.
  • Factory closures signal overcapacity as brands exit small-rim tire production.
  • New players gain ground in small-rim segments in Europe and North America.

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Daily Brief India: Swiggy, Prakash Industries, Blackbuck and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Zomato Vs Swiggy: The Great Indian Delivery War
  • The Beat Ideas: Prakash Industries Limited, A Mining Catalyst
  • Zinka Logistics IPO – Has Grown Rapidly but Looks Expensive


Zomato Vs Swiggy: The Great Indian Delivery War

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Swiggy (1255298D IN) debuts with an 8% premium, raising Rs. 11,328 crore in IPO for Dark store expansion, brand promotion, tech & inorganic growth.
  • Swiggy lags behind Zomato across metrics, while Zomato diversifies with high-growth ticketing and “Going Out” segments.
  • With both segments is on the edge of becoming Contribution and EBITDA positive, one need to look the results of upcoming quarters of swiggy carefully.

The Beat Ideas: Prakash Industries Limited, A Mining Catalyst

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Prakash Industries (PKI IN) Bhaskarpara Coal Mine is now received all the government approvals ensuring stable, self-supplied coal for steel production as well as open market sale.
  • This development reduces raw material costs, boosts EBITDA potential, and strengthens PIL’s valuation amid past corporate governance concerns.
  • PIL has manageable debt and with rising EBITDA, the company is available at a very attractive valuation compared to its peers.

Zinka Logistics IPO – Has Grown Rapidly but Looks Expensive

By Akshat Shah

  • Blackbuck (1355652D IN) is looking to raise about US$130m in its India IPO.
  • Zinka Logistics (Blackbuck) is India’s largest digital platform for truck operators (in terms of number of users), with 963,345 truck operators transacting on its platform in FY24, as per Redseer.
  • Previously, we talked about the company’s historical performance. In this note, we share our quick thoughts on peer comparison and valuation.

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Most Read: Seven & I Holdings, Kansai Electric Power, Zomato, Nec Networks & System Integr, Hyundai Engineering & Construction, Macromill, Inc, China Boqi Environmental Hol, SK Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • 7&I (3382 JP) – An ITO Family MBO? With Itochu? At ¥9trln? Maybe. Information Is Scarce
  • KEPCO (9503 JP): Index Implications of US$3.5bn Primary + Secondary Offering
  • Kansai Electric (9503 JP) – HUGE Equity Offering To Stuff Retail
  • INDIA: Index Changes Due to the 45 New Additions to the F&O Segment
  • NEC Network (1973 JP) Tender Offer – The Landscape Has Fully Changed
  • Trump Trade: Korean Construction Vs Military Stocks Amid Potential End of War in Ukraine?
  • CVC Offers ¥1150 for Macromill (3978) – Wrong Price, Wrong Register – Expect Activism or An Overbid
  • Boqi Env (2377 HK)’s Partial Offer
  • Macromill (3978 JP): CVC’s Light Tender Offer at JPY1,150 Begs for Activism
  • Korea Pushes to Expand Director’s Duty of Loyalty: Focus on Hostile Takeover-Risk Conglomerates


7&I (3382 JP) – An ITO Family MBO? With Itochu? At ¥9trln? Maybe. Information Is Scarce

By Travis Lundy

  • Yesterday a news article from Bloomberg suggested 7&i was “considering” an MBO. Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) later confirmed they had received a non-binding proposal from ITO Junro/family.
  • The initial number was ¥9trln. If market cap? High. If EV, too low. That would have implied a price just over the first “grossly inadequate” ACT price.
  • There is a lot we don’t know. This changes the landscape. It probably shifts the range trade, but it will shift more when we get more clarity on ITO-san’s price.

KEPCO (9503 JP): Index Implications of US$3.5bn Primary + Secondary Offering

By Brian Freitas

  • Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP) is looking to raise up to US$3.5bn via a primary offering and a sale of Treasury shares. Pricing date is between 26-29 November.
  • Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP) is among the better performing stocks from the Electric Utilities industry and trades at higher valuations compared to its peers.
  • There will be a fair bit of passive buying with around 29% of the offering being bought at the time of settlement of the shares.

Kansai Electric (9503 JP) – HUGE Equity Offering To Stuff Retail

By Travis Lundy

  • The past few years, large equity offerings have either been IPOs or secondary offerings (without dilution). Today we get a big dilutive secondary offering from Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP)
  • This is ~223mm shares or roughly ¥530bn against a current market cap of ¥2.1+trln. A 25% increase in share count. It is quite dilutive, but the stock is not rich.
  • Because dilutive, not overly-well-flagged, and mostly retail, this could get hammered. The div is not high enough to make it attractive, so one has to appreciate high earnings yield.

INDIA: Index Changes Due to the 45 New Additions to the F&O Segment

By Brian Freitas


NEC Network (1973 JP) Tender Offer – The Landscape Has Fully Changed

By Travis Lundy

  • On 29-October, NEC Corp (6701 JP) announced a low-ball TOB to buy out subsidiary Nec Networks & System Integr (1973 JP). It deserved activism, but finding an activist was tough.
  • On 7 November, it got an activist, and I wrote on 8-November the Landscape Had Changed that they might have bought 6mm shares more in 5 days. They bought 8.4mm.
  • The Landscape Has FULLY Changed. The details now matter quite a bit. NEC has two basic choices. Neither are that palatable. But Target Advisor DCF was ¥3,073-4,688 without synergies.

Trump Trade: Korean Construction Vs Military Stocks Amid Potential End of War in Ukraine?

By Douglas Kim

  • Although it is UNCERTAIN when the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East will end, if these wars indeed come to an end, this could POSITIVELY IMPACT Korean construction sector.
  • The end of the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East is likely to NEGATIVELY IMPACT the Korean military/defense sector. 
  • The major Korean construction companies have low valuation multiples. On the other hand, the major Korean military/defense companies have high valuation multiples.

CVC Offers ¥1150 for Macromill (3978) – Wrong Price, Wrong Register – Expect Activism or An Overbid

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, CVC announced a deal to buy out Macromill, Inc (3978 JP). It is agreed and supported by management and the Board. 
  • The shareholder register on this stock is wide open. It is not burdened by crossholders. It IS burdened by 7 large active holders who have 55%. 
  • Those holders may complain about the process, the transparency, and the low price. This could be a target for an activist or a strategic overbidder.

Boqi Env (2377 HK)’s Partial Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 23rd October,  flue gas treatment play China Boqi Environmental Hol (2377 HK) announced a buyback of 15% of shares out, at HK$1.20/share, a 16.5% premium to undisturbed.
  • The upshot of the buyback lifts the stake of co-founder Zeng Zhijun and concert parties  to 32.59% – up from 27.71% – before options. A whitewash waiver is required.
  • A expected, the Offer Doc has now been delayed. It is now expected to be dispatched on or before the 29th November. 

Macromill (3978 JP): CVC’s Light Tender Offer at JPY1,150 Begs for Activism

By Arun George

  • Macromill, Inc (3978 JP) has recommended CVC’s tender offer at JPY1,150, a 40.1% premium to the last close.
  • While the offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, it is 41% below the IPO price and 11% below the midpoint IFA DCF valuation range. 
  • The lack of an irrevocable, open shareholder register and large foreign institutions’ shareholding increases the odds of activism to force a bump.  

Korea Pushes to Expand Director’s Duty of Loyalty: Focus on Hostile Takeover-Risk Conglomerates

By Sanghyun Park

  • A Democratic Party insider noted some proposals need legal tweaks, so the December 10 deadline may slip, but they’re set on passing the expanded director loyalty duty.
  • FKI analyzed top conglomerates’ shareholder structures and found four of the top 10 facing substantial risks.
  • We need more clarity before jumping in, but with MBK driving Korea’s hostile M&A scene and the Commercial Act amendments, local chaebols facing control battles are a key KOSPI theme.

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Daily Brief Industrials: China Boqi Environmental Hol, S.F. Holding, Dong Il Corp, CiDi Inc, MNC Solution, Trex Company, Verbrec , Braemar Shipping Services PLC, Zhuzhou Tianqiao Crane Company, Daiki Axis and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Boqi Env (2377 HK)’s Partial Offer
  • SF Holding H Share Listing: Updates Point to Improving Fundamentals
  • Di Dong Il Corp: Share Cancellation of 15% of Outstanding Shares
  • CiDi Inc. Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • MNC Solutions Pre-IPO – Momentum Has Been Very Strong, Although Some Corp Gov Issues to Watch For
  • Trex Company Inc.: An Analysis Of Its Recent Market Expansion & Future Outlook! – Major Drivers
  • Verbrec Limited – Building a Sustainable Model
  • Braemar – On track to achieve FY25 targets
  • How Crane’s Process Flow Technologies Are Quietly Powering Revenue Growth!
  • Daiki Axis (4245 JP): Q3 FY12/24 flash update


Boqi Env (2377 HK)’s Partial Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 23rd October,  flue gas treatment play China Boqi Environmental Hol (2377 HK) announced a buyback of 15% of shares out, at HK$1.20/share, a 16.5% premium to undisturbed.
  • The upshot of the buyback lifts the stake of co-founder Zeng Zhijun and concert parties  to 32.59% – up from 27.71% – before options. A whitewash waiver is required.
  • A expected, the Offer Doc has now been delayed. It is now expected to be dispatched on or before the 29th November. 

SF Holding H Share Listing: Updates Point to Improving Fundamentals

By Arun George

  • S.F. Holding (002352 CH), the largest Asian integrated logistics service provider, is premarketing an H Share listing to raise US$1.0-1.5 billion, according to press reports.
  • SF is the largest integrated logistics service player in China and Asia and the fourth largest player globally in terms of revenue in 2023, according to Frost & Sullivan.   
  • The PHIP update shows that the business is in good health, with a return to growth, rising margins, and strong cash generation. Therefore, a premium multiple to peers is justified.

Di Dong Il Corp: Share Cancellation of 15% of Outstanding Shares

By Douglas Kim

  • On 14 November, Di Dong Il Corp (001530 KS) announced that it plans to cancel 3.78 million treasury shares (representing 15% of outstanding shares) on 29 November.
  • The company currently has 5.84 million outstanding shares. Thus, the share cancellation of 3.78 million shares represent 65% of its treasury shares. 
  • The company is facing an investigation due to suspicions that it conducted a loan transaction with its largest shareholder, the Jung-Hun Foundation, without board approval.

CiDi Inc. Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Nicholas Tan

  • CiDi Inc (CIDI HK) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by CICC, China Securities and Ping An.
  • It is a leading provider of autonomous driving technology for commercial vehicles in China.
  • It focuses on research and development of autonomous mining and logistics trucks, V2X technologies and high-performance perception solutions.

MNC Solutions Pre-IPO – Momentum Has Been Very Strong, Although Some Corp Gov Issues to Watch For

By Clarence Chu

  • MNC Solution (MNC KS) MNC Solutions is looking to raise US$200m in its upcoming Korea IPO.
  • MNC Solutions (MNC) supplies high-precision control components for maritime and aviation weaponry, and travel devices for stabilization to the defense industry.
  • In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

Trex Company Inc.: An Analysis Of Its Recent Market Expansion & Future Outlook! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Trex Company, Inc. recently reported its third quarter 2024 earnings.
  • The company reported net sales of $234 million, reflecting a decline of 23% from the previous year primarily due to a $70 million reduction in channel inventory.
  • Despite this, Trex noted robust consumer demand for its premium products like Trex Transcend Lineage and Signature decking and railing, although sales of lower-priced products were more restrained.

Verbrec Limited – Building a Sustainable Model

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • RaaS is initiating coverage of engineering, asset management, and infrastructure and training services group Verbrec (ASX:VBC) with a DCF-based valuation of $0.40/share, representing potential capital upside of 196% on the current share price.
  • FY24 was a turnaround year for Verbrec under new management with a clear strategy of carving out costs, improving operating and risk management disciplines, selling under-performing businesses and finalising legacy projects.
  • The business is now recapitalised, profitable, cash generative and, in our opinion, poised for further growth with a favourable macro environment in both VBC’s traditional engineering projects and particularly its areas of sustainable focus, led by the energy transition that is underway in Australia.

Braemar – On track to achieve FY25 targets

By Edison Investment Research

Braemar’s H125 results were in line with expectations, with modest revenue growth and some operational gearing evident in operating profit. The underlying activities continue to expand and diversify and Braemar remains well-positioned to drive its growth strategy. The trading outlook for FY25 is promising and we expect the company to be able to leverage its strong balance sheet in pursuit of strategic growth in a fragmented market. We maintain our underlying revenue and operating profit estimates for FY25 and FY26, as well as our 535p valuation, although EPS is affected by a reassessment of the number of shares in issue. Estimated end-FY25 net cash improves to £2.5m from a more modest net cash position.


How Crane’s Process Flow Technologies Are Quietly Powering Revenue Growth!

By Baptista Research

  • Crane Company recently presented its third-quarter 2024 financial results, showcasing several key highlights and challenges.
  • The company’s performance this quarter was marked by a solid increase in both core sales and earnings per share, despite encountering multiple operational disruptions.
  • Firstly, Crane demonstrated robust financial performance by exceeding expectations, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rising to $1.38.

Daiki Axis (4245 JP): Q3 FY12/24 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Cumulative Q3 FY12/24 revenue rose 7.3% YoY, driven by Environmental Equipment, Household Equipment, and Renewable Energy segments.
  • Operating profit increased 88.0% YoY to JPY677mn, supported by price hikes and strong segment performances.
  • Overseas revenue grew due to demand in India and Sri Lanka, with large government projects boosting growth.

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Daily Brief Utilities: Renewable Japan, China Gas Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Renewable Japan (9522 JP): Tokyu Fudosan (3289 JP)-Sponsored MBO Set at a 132% Takeover Premium
  • China Gas Holdings (384 HK): Assessing the Spin-Off of Value-Added Business


Renewable Japan (9522 JP): Tokyu Fudosan (3289 JP)-Sponsored MBO Set at a 132% Takeover Premium

By Arun George

  • Renewable Japan (9522 JP) has recommended a Tokyu Fudosan Holdings (3289 JP)-sponsored MBO at JPY1,250 per share, a 132.3% premium to the last close.
  • The high takeover premium reflects the 55% YTD decline in the share price. While the timing is opportunistic, the offer is attractive compared to peer multiples. 
  • The irrevocables and low required minority acceptance rate ensure that this is a done deal. The tender runs from 15 November to 8 January 2025 (34 business days).

China Gas Holdings (384 HK): Assessing the Spin-Off of Value-Added Business

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • The spin-off of the value-added business (VAS) of China Gas Holdings (384 HK) may add HK$0.22-0.83/share to the stock price, or 3.4-12.8%, based on our initial assessment.
  • VAS generated an operating profit of HK$1.58bn in FY24, up by 5.7% YoY. It is significant to China Gas as this accounted for 23.5% of its total segment profit.
  • The share price has not reacted much to the news because weak Chinese equity market and uncertainties on the upcoming 1H FY25 result. Once cleared, we see good upside.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Nec Networks & System Integr, SK Inc, Grab Holdings , SBI FinTech Solutions, Appier Group, Blackbuck, AEM, ASML Holding NV, Freee KK, CCC Intelligent Solutions Hold and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • NEC Network (1973 JP) Tender Offer – The Landscape Has Fully Changed
  • Korea Pushes to Expand Director’s Duty of Loyalty: Focus on Hostile Takeover-Risk Conglomerates
  • Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – High-Value Products Take the Helm
  • SBI Fintech Solutions: Tender Offer and Delisting
  • Appier (4180) | Record Quarter
  • Zinka Logistics IPO – Has Grown Rapidly but Looks Expensive
  • Aem: Hoping for Better 2025
  • ASML Investor Day: Oops They Did It Again. Different Story, Same 2030 Targets.
  • Freee 1Q: Turns Profitable Sooner Than We Expected
  • CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings Inc.: Can Its Adoption of New Solutions Give Them A Competitive Edge? – Major Drivers


NEC Network (1973 JP) Tender Offer – The Landscape Has Fully Changed

By Travis Lundy

  • On 29-October, NEC Corp (6701 JP) announced a low-ball TOB to buy out subsidiary Nec Networks & System Integr (1973 JP). It deserved activism, but finding an activist was tough.
  • On 7 November, it got an activist, and I wrote on 8-November the Landscape Had Changed that they might have bought 6mm shares more in 5 days. They bought 8.4mm.
  • The Landscape Has FULLY Changed. The details now matter quite a bit. NEC has two basic choices. Neither are that palatable. But Target Advisor DCF was ¥3,073-4,688 without synergies.

Korea Pushes to Expand Director’s Duty of Loyalty: Focus on Hostile Takeover-Risk Conglomerates

By Sanghyun Park

  • A Democratic Party insider noted some proposals need legal tweaks, so the December 10 deadline may slip, but they’re set on passing the expanded director loyalty duty.
  • FKI analyzed top conglomerates’ shareholder structures and found four of the top 10 facing substantial risks.
  • We need more clarity before jumping in, but with MBK driving Korea’s hostile M&A scene and the Commercial Act amendments, local chaebols facing control battles are a key KOSPI theme.

Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – High-Value Products Take the Helm

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Grab booked an impressive performance in 3Q2024, with strong evidence of its high-value products such as advance bookings gaining traction along with increasing monthly transacting users through its Saver offering. 
  • The company’s delivery business benefitted from strong performance from GrabMart and GrabFood. Its Grab Unlimited subscription hit record new highs, with users transacting four times as frequently as non-users.
  • Grab also saw a strong performance from GrabFin and its digital banks, which all started lending in November plus rapid deposit growth. Guidance increased reflecting a more positive outlook. 

SBI Fintech Solutions: Tender Offer and Delisting

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 14 November, SBI Fintech Solutions announced that the Japanese financial group SBI is pushing for a tender offer and delisting of SBI Fintech Solutions.
  • The tender offer price is 5,000 won per share, which is 36% higher than the closing price on 14 November. The tender offer size amount is about 26 billion won.
  • Given the relatively solid upside, we believe SBI Holdings is likely to successfully complete this tender offer and take the company private. 

Appier (4180) | Record Quarter

By Mark Chadwick

  • In Q3 FY24, Appier achieved record-breaking revenue, reaching JPY 9.1 billion, marking a 28% year-over-year growth.
  • Operating income for Q3 surged by 2.5 times YoY to JPY 788 million, with the operating margin improving by 4.3 percentage points to 8.7%.
  • At less than 4x EV/Sales and 16x FY25 EBITDA the stock does not appear expensive.

Zinka Logistics IPO – Has Grown Rapidly but Looks Expensive

By Akshat Shah

  • Blackbuck (1355652D IN) is looking to raise about US$130m in its India IPO.
  • Zinka Logistics (Blackbuck) is India’s largest digital platform for truck operators (in terms of number of users), with 963,345 truck operators transacting on its platform in FY24, as per Redseer.
  • Previously, we talked about the company’s historical performance. In this note, we share our quick thoughts on peer comparison and valuation.

Aem: Hoping for Better 2025

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • AEM (AEM SP) released 3Q24 numbers and bumped its guidance higher as its key customer pulled forward some orders.
  • In 2025 it will be the first year where customers outside of Intel will make up the majority of AEM’s revenues. This is a big milestone for AEM.
  • Continued business from Intel and growth in new key accounts means we should expect FY25 revenue growth. Guidance for FY25 will come by February 2025. 

ASML Investor Day: Oops They Did It Again. Different Story, Same 2030 Targets.

By Nicolas Baratte

  • ASML maintains its 2030 targets: revenue EUR44-60bn, Gross Margin 56-60%. But the narrative has changed, again. In 2022, it was Mature nodes (DUV) and EUV. In 2024, it’s AI. 
  • What’s changed? Lower growth in Smartphone, PC, Auto. AI bigger than expected. Server DRAM and HBM is the major positive change. NAND is revised down sharply. It’s actually believable. 
  • The guidance implies Operating Profits growing between 9.5-17.5% Cagr over 2024-2030. That’s pretty good but the stock is trading at 27x 2025 EPS, 22x 2026. No room for disappointment. 

Freee 1Q: Turns Profitable Sooner Than We Expected

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Freee KK (4478 JP) reported 1QFY06/2025 results which saw the company generating its first-ever Adj. operating profit, earlier than we expected.
  • The company has begun capitalising its software assets (decline in R&D costs as % of revenue) and this coupled with fall in S&M costs have contributed to profits.
  • The corporate paying customers surpassed more than 200k for the first time and we expect freee’s earnings to continue to improve going forward.

CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings Inc.: Can Its Adoption of New Solutions Give Them A Competitive Edge? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • CCC Intelligent Solutions’ third-quarter fiscal 2024 performance highlighted both consistent financial growth and evolving challenges within the insurance and vehicle repair industries.
  • The company reported a total revenue of $238 million, reflecting an 8% increase year-over-year, slightly exceeding their guidance range.
  • Adjusted EBITDA was $102 million, a 9% improvement from the previous year, supporting a strengthened adjusted EBITDA margin of 43%.

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Daily Brief Industrials: China Boqi Environmental Hol, S.F. Holding, Dong Il Corp, CiDi Inc, MNC Solution, Trex Company, Verbrec , Braemar Shipping Services PLC, Zhuzhou Tianqiao Crane Company, Daiki Axis and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Boqi Env (2377 HK)’s Partial Offer
  • SF Holding H Share Listing: Updates Point to Improving Fundamentals
  • Di Dong Il Corp: Share Cancellation of 15% of Outstanding Shares
  • CiDi Inc. Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • MNC Solutions Pre-IPO – Momentum Has Been Very Strong, Although Some Corp Gov Issues to Watch For
  • Trex Company Inc.: An Analysis Of Its Recent Market Expansion & Future Outlook! – Major Drivers
  • Verbrec Limited – Building a Sustainable Model
  • Braemar – On track to achieve FY25 targets
  • How Crane’s Process Flow Technologies Are Quietly Powering Revenue Growth!
  • Daiki Axis (4245 JP): Q3 FY12/24 flash update


Boqi Env (2377 HK)’s Partial Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 23rd October,  flue gas treatment play China Boqi Environmental Hol (2377 HK) announced a buyback of 15% of shares out, at HK$1.20/share, a 16.5% premium to undisturbed.
  • The upshot of the buyback lifts the stake of co-founder Zeng Zhijun and concert parties  to 32.59% – up from 27.71% – before options. A whitewash waiver is required.
  • A expected, the Offer Doc has now been delayed. It is now expected to be dispatched on or before the 29th November. 

SF Holding H Share Listing: Updates Point to Improving Fundamentals

By Arun George

  • S.F. Holding (002352 CH), the largest Asian integrated logistics service provider, is premarketing an H Share listing to raise US$1.0-1.5 billion, according to press reports.
  • SF is the largest integrated logistics service player in China and Asia and the fourth largest player globally in terms of revenue in 2023, according to Frost & Sullivan.   
  • The PHIP update shows that the business is in good health, with a return to growth, rising margins, and strong cash generation. Therefore, a premium multiple to peers is justified.

Di Dong Il Corp: Share Cancellation of 15% of Outstanding Shares

By Douglas Kim

  • On 14 November, Di Dong Il Corp (001530 KS) announced that it plans to cancel 3.78 million treasury shares (representing 15% of outstanding shares) on 29 November.
  • The company currently has 5.84 million outstanding shares. Thus, the share cancellation of 3.78 million shares represent 65% of its treasury shares. 
  • The company is facing an investigation due to suspicions that it conducted a loan transaction with its largest shareholder, the Jung-Hun Foundation, without board approval.

CiDi Inc. Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Nicholas Tan

  • CiDi Inc (CIDI HK) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by CICC, China Securities and Ping An.
  • It is a leading provider of autonomous driving technology for commercial vehicles in China.
  • It focuses on research and development of autonomous mining and logistics trucks, V2X technologies and high-performance perception solutions.

MNC Solutions Pre-IPO – Momentum Has Been Very Strong, Although Some Corp Gov Issues to Watch For

By Clarence Chu

  • MNC Solution (MNC KS) MNC Solutions is looking to raise US$200m in its upcoming Korea IPO.
  • MNC Solutions (MNC) supplies high-precision control components for maritime and aviation weaponry, and travel devices for stabilization to the defense industry.
  • In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

Trex Company Inc.: An Analysis Of Its Recent Market Expansion & Future Outlook! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Trex Company, Inc. recently reported its third quarter 2024 earnings.
  • The company reported net sales of $234 million, reflecting a decline of 23% from the previous year primarily due to a $70 million reduction in channel inventory.
  • Despite this, Trex noted robust consumer demand for its premium products like Trex Transcend Lineage and Signature decking and railing, although sales of lower-priced products were more restrained.

Verbrec Limited – Building a Sustainable Model

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • RaaS is initiating coverage of engineering, asset management, and infrastructure and training services group Verbrec (ASX:VBC) with a DCF-based valuation of $0.40/share, representing potential capital upside of 196% on the current share price.
  • FY24 was a turnaround year for Verbrec under new management with a clear strategy of carving out costs, improving operating and risk management disciplines, selling under-performing businesses and finalising legacy projects.
  • The business is now recapitalised, profitable, cash generative and, in our opinion, poised for further growth with a favourable macro environment in both VBC’s traditional engineering projects and particularly its areas of sustainable focus, led by the energy transition that is underway in Australia.

Braemar – On track to achieve FY25 targets

By Edison Investment Research

Braemar’s H125 results were in line with expectations, with modest revenue growth and some operational gearing evident in operating profit. The underlying activities continue to expand and diversify and Braemar remains well-positioned to drive its growth strategy. The trading outlook for FY25 is promising and we expect the company to be able to leverage its strong balance sheet in pursuit of strategic growth in a fragmented market. We maintain our underlying revenue and operating profit estimates for FY25 and FY26, as well as our 535p valuation, although EPS is affected by a reassessment of the number of shares in issue. Estimated end-FY25 net cash improves to £2.5m from a more modest net cash position.


How Crane’s Process Flow Technologies Are Quietly Powering Revenue Growth!

By Baptista Research

  • Crane Company recently presented its third-quarter 2024 financial results, showcasing several key highlights and challenges.
  • The company’s performance this quarter was marked by a solid increase in both core sales and earnings per share, despite encountering multiple operational disruptions.
  • Firstly, Crane demonstrated robust financial performance by exceeding expectations, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rising to $1.38.

Daiki Axis (4245 JP): Q3 FY12/24 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Cumulative Q3 FY12/24 revenue rose 7.3% YoY, driven by Environmental Equipment, Household Equipment, and Renewable Energy segments.
  • Operating profit increased 88.0% YoY to JPY677mn, supported by price hikes and strong segment performances.
  • Overseas revenue grew due to demand in India and Sri Lanka, with large government projects boosting growth.

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Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

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  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
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