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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: MGM China Holdings and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: MGM China Holdings


Morning Views Asia: MGM China Holdings

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Crypto: Crypto Crisp: Imminent Surge in Liquidity and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Crypto Crisp: Imminent Surge in Liquidity


Crypto Crisp: Imminent Surge in Liquidity

By Mads Eberhardt

  • Last Wednesday, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May was released, showing soft inflation.
  • However, during the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (FED) subsequent FOMC meeting on the same day, the Fed was more hawkish than expected, indicating only a 25 basis points interest rate cut this year.
  • This led to declines across the crypto market.

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Daily Brief South Korea: Hyundai Motor India and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Hyundai Motor India IPO Preview


Hyundai Motor India IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Hyundai Motor India is getting ready to complete its IPO in 2H 2024. Hyundai Motor India plans to offer up to 142.2 million shares (17.5% stake) to investors. 
  • Hyundai Motor (005380 KS) currently owns a 100% stake in Hyundai Motor India. The IPO of Hyundai Motor India could raise as much as US$3 billion.
  • If Hyundai Motor India (HMI) is valued at US$25 billion and HMC sells a 17.5% stake in the company, HMC’s remaining stake in HMI would be worth nearly US$21 billion.  

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Daily Brief Thailand: Berli Jucker and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • SET50 Index Rebalance: 4 Changes Next Week; One Could Surprise


SET50 Index Rebalance: 4 Changes Next Week; One Could Surprise

By Brian Freitas


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Daily Brief Macro: Korean Government Is Pushing for a Comprehensive Inheritance Reforms – Will They Pass or Fail? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Korean Government Is Pushing for a Comprehensive Inheritance Reforms – Will They Pass or Fail?
  • EU: The Centre Holds… For Now
  • Persistent Weakness in Chinese Real Estate Will Drag Iron Ore Prices Down
  • The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Prodia Ready, AEM, and Vinfast
  • Steno Signals #104 – Get ready for a WAVE of liquidity in July!
  • Be Careful Precious Metals Bulls & Tailrisk Secular Inflation
  • China Debt Hangover and Policy Limits
  • The week at a glance: UK CPI report is taking the headlines together with Le Pen
  • Actinver – Macro Daily: Inflation 2h-May


Korean Government Is Pushing for a Comprehensive Inheritance Reforms – Will They Pass or Fail?

By Douglas Kim

  • In the past several days, the South Korean Presidential Office has announced that it is pushing for a comprehensive inheritance tax reforms.
  • Although the Presidential Office mentioned it is pushing to reduce highest inheritance tax rates from 60% to 30%, the more likely scenario is to reduce this rate to about 50%.
  • The lump sum personal deduction of 500 million won or inheritance tax which has been maintained for nearly 27 years could be doubled to about 1 billion won or more. 

EU: The Centre Holds… For Now

By Alastair Newton

  • The centre’s position in the European Parliament is generally maintained, but the increased presence of right-wing/hard-right members threatens Ursula von der Leyen’s potential second term.
  • This political shift could further complicate the creation of policies related to green initiatives and migration.
  • The potential establishment of a nationalist government in France could exacerbate these complications.

Persistent Weakness in Chinese Real Estate Will Drag Iron Ore Prices Down

By Srinidhi Raghavendra

  • Chinese real estate investments fell 10.1% in the first five months of 2024 YoY. New home prices fell at the fastest pace in more than 9.5 years in May.
  • Fresh bank lending in China rebounded well expectations in May. Chinese banks issued 950B yuan (v/s 1.36T yuan issued last May) in new loans last month.
  • China’s consumer inflation held flat in May amid feeble domestic demand, uneven economic recovery, and consumer confidence weakness.

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Prodia Ready, AEM, and Vinfast

By Angus Mackintosh

  • The past week saw insights on Prodia (PRDA IJ) after a management call and AEM (AEM SP) post-management changes, with some economic commentary on Thailand. 
  • There was also an insight on Global Credit Growth from Daniel Tabbush and the CrossASEAN Ground Zero Insight looking at Vinfast (VFS US), digital payments, and social commerce player Evermos.
  • The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.

Steno Signals #104 – Get ready for a WAVE of liquidity in July!

By Andreas Steno

  • Happy Sunday from Copenhagen! Risk asset investing is typically seen as a winter-sport for good reasons, but July is often up there among the best return months.
  • It’s as if July heard winter bragging about its stock market prowess and decided to show up in flip-flops, a Hawaiian shirt, and a cocktail in hand, just to prove that even in the heat, it can keep up with the icy competition.
  • This year is unlikely to be an exception as we will see improving liquidity trends into July, while the bond market seasonality is typically also a lot more favorable due to more benign issuance trends (especially in Europe).

Be Careful Precious Metals Bulls & Tailrisk Secular Inflation

By The Commodity Report

  • Be Careful Precious Metals Bulls Another friendly reminder that positioning in copper remains super speculative bullish – aka, there is much room for speculators to reduce their bullish bets again.
  • The same can be said for gold and copper, but not for crude oil.
  • Once again, there seems to be less demand than people realize – especially from China.

China Debt Hangover and Policy Limits

By Alex Ng

  • China has seen a very large increase in total public and private non-financial sector debt/GDP since 2008, which is unlikely to be repeated in the coming decade.
  • This is curtailing Chinese policymakers’ actions on monetary, credit and fiscal policy to support the economy, and actions risk being less than recent promises.  
  • Thus we remain of the view that China will struggle to meet growth targets and we look for 4.5% growth in 2024.

The week at a glance: UK CPI report is taking the headlines together with Le Pen

By Andreas Steno

  • Welcome to our weekly “The week at a glance” report released every Monday morning (and replacing our Something for your Espresso every Monday).
  • We look at the most important releases of the week ahead and address how we are positioned for them.
  • We have a relatively light week ahead of us in terms of key figure releases but both the RBA and the SNB will set policy rates, while the major key figure release is the UK inflation report ahead of the BoE meeting.

Actinver – Macro Daily: Inflation 2h-May

By Actinver

  • Big surprise in headline inflation with a -0.20% contraction during the second half of May.
  • As we expected, the drop was partly due to an atypical price decline in non-core inflation of -0.72% bw.
  • However, core inflation surprised with a -0.02% bw drop, possibly associated with the effect of the Hot Sale.

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Daily Brief United States: Gold, Bitcoin, Marriott Vacations World, Comscore Inc, Commvault Systems, Cogent Communications Holdings, Carriage Services, Armstrong World Industries, Diodes Inc, Axcelis Technologies and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Be Careful Precious Metals Bulls & Tailrisk Secular Inflation
  • Crypto Crisp: Imminent Surge in Liquidity
  • Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation: Focused Development Efforts in International Markets! – Major Drivers
  • Comscore Inc (SCOR) – Saturday, Mar 16, 2024
  • Commvault Systems Inc.: What Will Be The Overall Revenue Impact Of The Enhancement of Cyber Resilience Solutions? – Major Drivers
  • Cogent Communications: Their Expanded IPv4 Leasing Strategy & The Underlying Risks Associated With It! – Major Drivers
  • Carriage Services Inc (CSV) – Monday, Mar 18, 2024
  • Armstrong World Industries Inc.: Strengthened Market Position through Unique Value Propositions! – Major Drivers
  • Diodes Incorporated: Focus on High-Value New Product Development and Portfolio Expansion! – Major Drivers
  • Axcelis Technologies Inc.: The Emergence of Data Centers and AI Computational Needs! – Major Drivers


Be Careful Precious Metals Bulls & Tailrisk Secular Inflation

By The Commodity Report

  • Be Careful Precious Metals Bulls Another friendly reminder that positioning in copper remains super speculative bullish – aka, there is much room for speculators to reduce their bullish bets again.
  • The same can be said for gold and copper, but not for crude oil.
  • Once again, there seems to be less demand than people realize – especially from China.

Crypto Crisp: Imminent Surge in Liquidity

By Mads Eberhardt

  • Last Wednesday, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May was released, showing soft inflation.
  • However, during the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (FED) subsequent FOMC meeting on the same day, the Fed was more hawkish than expected, indicating only a 25 basis points interest rate cut this year.
  • This led to declines across the crypto market.

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation: Focused Development Efforts in International Markets! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Marriott Vacations Worldwide recently reported its financials for the first quarter of 2024, showcasing a series of developments that positions the company with both opportunities and challenges as it navigates through the year.
  • On the positive side, Marriott Vacations reported a robust occupancy rate of 90% during the first quarter, with a growth in contract sales by 3% (excluding Maui), supported by a 9% increase in first-time buyer tours.
  • The opening of a new resort in Waikiki later this year has seen strong initial reservations, signaling potential revenue growth and enhanced customer engagement in upcoming quarters.

Comscore Inc (SCOR) – Saturday, Mar 16, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Comscore underwent recapitalization in 2021, issuing $204M in convertible preferred stock
  • Decline in equity capitalization led to removal from major market indexes, but recent improvements in fundamentals have created significant equity value
  • Preferred holders may convert stock into common stock at a discount, and have the option to request a one-time special dividend valued at $45M, declining annually if specific borrowing conditions are met.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Commvault Systems Inc.: What Will Be The Overall Revenue Impact Of The Enhancement of Cyber Resilience Solutions? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Commvault recently wrapped up an impressive Fiscal Year 2024, demonstrating robust financial health and strategic progress.
  • Their fourth-quarter earnings highlighted a 10% increase in total revenue, reaching $223 million.
  • This growth was significantly propelled by a 27% rise in subscription revenue, which now constitutes over half of the total revenue stream.

Cogent Communications: Their Expanded IPv4 Leasing Strategy & The Underlying Risks Associated With It! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Cogent Communications Holdings, a major player in the internet service and IP transit industry, delivered a mixed set of financial results for its first quarter of 2024.
  • On the revenue front, the company posted a total of $266.2 million for the quarter, which reflected a decrease of $5.9 million from the previous quarter.
  • This decline was primarily attributed to a $5.8 million sequential drop in revenue from the commercial services agreement with T-Mobile and a $1.2 million decrease in non-core revenues.

Carriage Services Inc (CSV) – Monday, Mar 18, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Carriage Services is a leading provider of funeral and cemetery services in the US, with operations in funeral home and cemetery services
  • Main revenue comes from funeral home operations, including burial services, cremation, and merchandise
  • Company distinguishes between atneed and preneed services, with majority of contracts falling into preneed category and funds swept into trust for returns on capital, making it an attractive investment option.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Armstrong World Industries Inc.: Strengthened Market Position through Unique Value Propositions! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Armstrong World Industries commenced 2024 with robust first-quarter results, demonstrating sustained growth momentum from the previous year.
  • The report indicates a notable increase in key financial metrics, including a 5% rise in net sales and a significant 16% growth in adjusted EBITDA.
  • Additionally, an impressive 23% increase in adjusted diluted earnings per share and a 46% surge in adjusted free cash flow highlights efficient financial management.

Diodes Incorporated: Focus on High-Value New Product Development and Portfolio Expansion! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Diodes Incorporated reported its financial results for the first quarter of fiscal 2024 with mixed outcomes during a challenging economic environment.
  • The company experienced decreased revenue, reflecting slower-than expected recovery in consumer, computing, and communication segments, along with expected seasonal effects from the Chinese New Year holiday.
  • Revenue for the quarter stood at $302 million, a significant reduction from the previous year.

Axcelis Technologies Inc.: The Emergence of Data Centers and AI Computational Needs! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Axcelis Technologies has reported a strong start to 2024, surpassing expectations in its Q1 performance.
  • The company’s revenue stood at $252.4 million with earnings per diluted share increasing to $1.57, reflecting a 10% increase year-over-year.
  • More importantly, gross margins improved significantly by over 500 basis points primarily due to an advantageous product mix, although this was slightly offset by higher selling, research and development expenses, and taxes.

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Daily Brief Australia: Countplus Ltd, Centrepoint Alliance, SelfWealth Ltd, WRKR and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Count (ASX:CUP)
  • Centrepoint Alliance (ASX:CAF)
  • Selfwealth (ASX:SWF)
  • Wrkr (ASX:WRK)


Count (ASX:CUP)

By Hurdle Rate

  • Count (ASX:CUP) is an accounting and wealth business in Australia which is both the 18th largest Accounting firm whilst simultaneously being the 3rd largest AFSL holder in the country after its consolidation of Diverger (ASX:DVR) due to be implemented on the 1st of March 2024.
  • As some may gather, our shares in Count have come from the implementation of Diverger transaction, and as a result I will be focusing on the specifics of the combined business and its prospects.

  • First, Count’s Accounting division generates the lion’s share of its revenue and earnings, but the same can be said of its invested capital with all the related contract assets and receivables of some $20m at YE FY2023 whereas the net revenue due to advisers is more than what is due to from the client by an estimated $2.4m in the wealth division (negative net working capital).


Centrepoint Alliance (ASX:CAF)

By Hurdle Rate

  • Centrepoint Alliance (ASX:CAF) is an Australian financial services business providing licensing in both financial and credit advice along with a managed portfolios business and support services such as assistance with Xplan implementation (Financial Planning software.
  • Centrepoint is a business I have been following for many years, having owned it myself in the past when it was a net-net.
  • Back then it was paying significant amounts of cash to legacy clients claiming remediation for fee-for-no-service complaints. 

Selfwealth (ASX:SWF)

By Hurdle Rate

  • Selfwealth is an ASX-listed online broker Selfwealth is ironically the domestic broker the trust uses with me having used it for over 6 years with great satisfaction.
  • Comparing ASX pricing of Selfwealth to some of its primary competitors it is worthwhile to note that the cheapest broker I could find is Superhero which just this month introduced $2 brokerage fees on ASX trades up to $20,000 as it engages in a price war with Stake.
  • Selfwealth at a price of $9.50 might seem monumental in comparison, but I would say that Selfwealth has a $9.50 regardless of trade size, making trades >$95,000 cheaper than both Stake and Superhero.

Wrkr (ASX:WRK)

By Hurdle Rate

  • Wrkr is an Australian regulatory software business founded in 2009 which helps employers with the various compliance moments for their employees such as superstream contributions, Single touch payroll (STP), employee onboarding and so on.
  • It is a business which predominately offers its solutions through the larger corporates and APRA superannuation funds across millions of employees at a very low average ticket size.
  • It is one of just 9 gateway operators on the Superannuation Transaction Network (STN) and one of 9 ESA providers (only 5 including Wrkr can process rollovers and release) in the country.

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Daily Brief Indonesia: Prodia and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Prodia (PRDA IJ) – Increasingly Esoteric


Prodia (PRDA IJ) – Increasingly Esoteric

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Prodia (PRDA IJ) suffered from a seasonal downturn in 1Q2024 as Lebaran slowed its testing volumes from corporates, with opex related to Prodia Digital impacting margins in the quarter.
  • The company’s testing mix is shifting in a meaningful way towards esoteric testing, which commands significantly higher margins plus it is building out its genomic testing, which yields higher returns.
  • Investment in Prodia Digital should slow in the coming quarters, helping to improve margins. with new outlets driving revenues. Valuations are unjustifiably low with 2Q2024 numbers likely to be positive.

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Daily Brief India: Archean Chemical Industries, India Shelter Finance and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • The Beat Ideas- Archean Chemical: The Bromine Leader of India
  • India Shelter Finance US$240m Lock-Up Expiry – Multi-Bagger Gains Are Ripe for the Taking


The Beat Ideas- Archean Chemical: The Bromine Leader of India

By Sudarshan Bhandari


India Shelter Finance US$240m Lock-Up Expiry – Multi-Bagger Gains Are Ripe for the Taking

By Clarence Chu

  • India Shelter Finance (0570670D IN) listed in India on 20th Dec 2023 after raising US$144m. The pre-IPO investors had trimmed a portion of their stakes in the IPO
  • India Shelter Finance (ISF) is a retail-focused HFC targeting the self-employed customer with a focus on first time home loan takers in the low and middle income group.
  • Coming up for six-month lockup expiry on 18th Jun 2024 are the firm’s pre-IPO shareholders and a portion of the promoters’ stakes.

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Daily Brief China: L’Occitane, Hengdeli Holdings, XPeng , New Oriental Education & Techn, Lufax Holding , Taste Gourmet, Iron Ore and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • L’Occitane (973 HK): Share Alternative a Crucial Step Towards the Offer Being Declared Unconditional
  • Hengdeli Holdings (3389 HK): Negative EV Play Halted
  • Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep 24: No Changes but US$425mn One-Way Flows Due to Capping
  • Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep 24: Two Changes Possible; US$256mn One-Way
  • L’Occitane (973.HK) – The Privatization Is About to Succeed
  • Closing Lufax
  • Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – June 2024
  • Persistent Weakness in Chinese Real Estate Will Drag Iron Ore Prices Down


L’Occitane (973 HK): Share Alternative a Crucial Step Towards the Offer Being Declared Unconditional

By Arun George

  • L’Occitane (973 HK) announced the share alternative at an exchange ratio of 10 rollover shares for each offer share, subject to a cap of 5% of outstanding shares.
  • The share alternative option will help the offer and was likely required to get Pleasant Lake Partners’ support (3.25% of outstanding shares). There is minimal vocal opposition to the offer. 
  • Irrevocables/Letters of support represent 49.83% of disinterested shares. An attractive offer and the share alternative facilitate meeting the minimum acceptance condition, which requires an 80% disinterested acceptance rate (ex. irrevocables).

Hengdeli Holdings (3389 HK): Negative EV Play Halted

By David Blennerhassett

  • Watch accessory play Hengdeli Holdings (3389 HK) is currently suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code.
  • Potentially founder Zhang Yuping (holding 17%), CEO Tony Cheung (16%) and/or Swatch Group (UHR SW) (9.94%) may table an Offer. My money is on Zhang.
  • This is a very illiquid name. What is interesting is that Hengdeli has net cash of HK$1.3bn – as at 31 December 2023 – against a market cap of HK$0.59bn.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep 24: No Changes but US$425mn One-Way Flows Due to Capping

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the rankings of potential ADDs and potential DELs for the September 2024 index rebal event.
  • We do not see any index changes in September 2024 but there could be one-way flows of US$425mn due to capping.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep 24: Two Changes Possible; US$256mn One-Way

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSCEI index rebal event in September 2024.
  • Based on the current data, I see two ADDs and two DELs.

L’Occitane (973.HK) – The Privatization Is About to Succeed

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • So far, about 49.8% of disinterested shares from Irrevocable Undertakings/Non-binding Letters of Support would accept the Share Offer. Success is within reach based on a “good enough” privatization price. 
  • The Share Alternative is mainly aimed at investors who are hoping for the future re-listing of L’Occitane in the overseas markets – They can still get a vantage point.
  • However, re-listing seems still distant/uncertain. The value of Rollover Shares in the future remains uncertain. Investors would face risks if they choose the Share Alternative. The Cash Alternative is preferred.

Closing Lufax

By Turtles all the way down

  • It has come to my attention that Lufax management has recently altered the terms of their convertible debt: Based on the terms and conditions of the Ping An Convertible Promissory Notes, as a result of the Special Dividend, the Conversion Price will be adjusted from US$12.
  • Based on the terms and conditions of the Ping An Convertible Promissory Notes, as a result of the Special Dividend, the Conversion Price will be adjusted from US$12.76 per Share as at the date of this circular to US$2.32 per Share upon settlement of the Special Dividend, and thus, upon full conversion, the Ping An Convertible Promissory Notes can be converted into a maximum number of 421,077,586 Shares (the “Conversion Shares”).
  • The Company considers that the adjustment formula is in line with market practice for anti-dilution provisions in convertible securities.

Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – June 2024

By Sameer Taneja


Persistent Weakness in Chinese Real Estate Will Drag Iron Ore Prices Down

By Srinidhi Raghavendra

  • Chinese real estate investments fell 10.1% in the first five months of 2024 YoY. New home prices fell at the fastest pace in more than 9.5 years in May.
  • Fresh bank lending in China rebounded well expectations in May. Chinese banks issued 950B yuan (v/s 1.36T yuan issued last May) in new loans last month.
  • China’s consumer inflation held flat in May amid feeble domestic demand, uneven economic recovery, and consumer confidence weakness.

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