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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief ECM: Webtoon Entertainment IPO – Further Thoughts on Valuation – Acquisitions and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Webtoon Entertainment IPO – Further Thoughts on Valuation – Acquisitions, Buyouts
  • Guzman Y Gomez IPO Trading – Strong Demand, Not All Shares in Escrow
  • Innospace IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis
  • Black Sesame Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Unable to Shake off Its Loss-Making Tendencies
  • Bajaj Housing Finance Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Carrying More Risky Loans
  • Bloks Group IPO: Exceptional Revenue Hyper-Growth and Profitability Are Unique Among Toy Makers
  • Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU): Nasdaq IPO Plan Dropped; Future Growth Prospect Remains Intact
  • Pre-IPO Soft International Group – Whether Performance Growth Can Be Sustained Is a Question Mark


Webtoon Entertainment IPO – Further Thoughts on Valuation – Acquisitions, Buyouts

By Ethan Aw

  • Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US) is looking to raise up to US$315m in its US IPO, down from an earlier reported float of US$500m.
  • Webtoon Entertainment is a global storytelling platform where a community of creators and users discover, create and share new content.
  • In our previous notes, we talked about the company’s historical performance, undertook a peer comparison and shared our thoughts on valuation. In this note, we share additional thoughts on valuation.

Guzman Y Gomez IPO Trading – Strong Demand, Not All Shares in Escrow

By Sumeet Singh

  • Guzman Y Gomez  raised around US$221m in its upsized Australian IPO. 
  • GYG is a quick service restaurant business with more than 200 restaurants globally. It mainly focuses on fresh, made-to-order, Mexican-inspired food.
  • We have looked at the company’s performance  and valuation in our past notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Innospace IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Innospace reported solid IPO bookbuilding results. Innospace’s IPO price has been determined at 43,300 won won, which is at the high end of the IPO price range.
  • Our base case valuation of Innospace is target price of 51,481 won per share (12 month view), which is 19% higher than the IPO price.
  • Innospace is involved in the satellite launch vehicle production and launch service business.

Black Sesame Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Unable to Shake off Its Loss-Making Tendencies

By Clarence Chu

  • Black Sesame Technologies (BLACKSES HK) is looking to raise around US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Black Sesame International Holdings (BSIH) is an automotive-grade computing SoC and SoC-based intelligent vehicle solution provider.
  • In our previous note we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we discuss Black Sesame’s PHIP updates.

Bajaj Housing Finance Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Carrying More Risky Loans

By Sumeet Singh

  • Bajaj Housing Finance (BHF IN) is looking to raise around US$830m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • BHF is a non-deposit taking housing finance company engaged in mortgage lending since FY18. Its mortgage products include home loans, loans against property, lease rental discounting and developer financing.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Bloks Group IPO: Exceptional Revenue Hyper-Growth and Profitability Are Unique Among Toy Makers

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Bloks Group, a fast-growing toy company and leader of assembly character toys, filed for a Hong Kong IPO. The company is headquartered in Shanghai, PRC, and has 410 full-time employees.
  • Bloks Group has raised $200M+ to date from investors, including YF Capital, Legend Capital, Source Code Capital, Gaorong Capital and SinoMedia Asia Pacific.
  • The Chinese toy maker has delivered an exceptional revenue hyper-growth of 169% y/y in 2023. Elite operating metrics and impressive financial profile make IPO attractive for investors.

Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU): Nasdaq IPO Plan Dropped; Future Growth Prospect Remains Intact

By Tina Banerjee

  • Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU) has withdrawn its proposed IPO in the U.S. due to unfavorable market condition. The proposed Nasdaq listing was not predicated on the need to raise capital.
  • As a profitable, cash generative company, Telix is confident that its existing and upcoming cash resources will be sufficient to meet R&D and commercialization needs.
  • Following the successful commercial launch of Illuccix, Telix has demonstrated its ability to develop and commercialize innovative product portfolio, which should accelerate its growth trajectory.

Pre-IPO Soft International Group – Whether Performance Growth Can Be Sustained Is a Question Mark

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The top two biggest markets of Soft International (China and Russia) are encountering the challenge of slowing growth or even growth stagnation due to decreasing birth rate and increasing competition.
  • Single-Digit net profit margin is not satisfactory for a company with strong consumption attributes. This makes us wonder if the personal hygienic disposables is not a money-making business. 
  • Overreliance on Russian Top-tier Retailer would bring risks to the business.Both revenue growth and profitability could decrease sharply if adverse situations occur. Soft International’s valuation could be lower than peers.

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia:


Morning Views Asia:

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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    Daily Brief Australia: Guzman Y Gomez, Capitol Health, Mma Offshore, Telix Pharmaceuticals and more

    By | Australia, Daily Briefs

    In today’s briefing:

    • Guzman Y Gomez IPO: Listing & Index Inclusion Timeline
    • Capitol Health (CAJ AU): All-Scrip Non-Binding Merger with Integral Diagnostics
    • Guzman Y Gomez IPO Trading – Strong Demand, Not All Shares in Escrow
    • MMA Offshore (MRM AU): Cyan Lifts Offer
    • Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU): Nasdaq IPO Plan Dropped; Future Growth Prospect Remains Intact


    Guzman Y Gomez IPO: Listing & Index Inclusion Timeline

    By Brian Freitas

    • Guzman Y Gomez (0817833D AU) has raised A$335.1m in a primary + secondary offering, valuing the company at A$2.23bn. The stock starts trading on the ASX Ltd (ASX AU) today.
    • Just over 54% of the shares are escrowed which means there is a lot of stock that will be available for sale on listing day.
    • Guzman Y Gomez (0817833D AU) could be added to the S&P/ASX 300 Index in September and there could be global index inclusions in November and December.

    Capitol Health (CAJ AU): All-Scrip Non-Binding Merger with Integral Diagnostics

    By Arun George

    • On 17 June, Capitol Health (CAJ AU) disclosed a non-binding merger proposal from Integral Diagnostics (IDX AU) at 0.12849 Integral shares per Capitol share.
    • Integral has been granted a four-week exclusivity period that ends on 15 July. The transaction will require approval from the ACCC and Capitol shareholders. 
    • The offer is attractive compared to historical exchange ratios, trading ranges and peer multiples. At the last close, the gross spread was 11.7%.  

    Guzman Y Gomez IPO Trading – Strong Demand, Not All Shares in Escrow

    By Sumeet Singh

    • Guzman Y Gomez  raised around US$221m in its upsized Australian IPO. 
    • GYG is a quick service restaurant business with more than 200 restaurants globally. It mainly focuses on fresh, made-to-order, Mexican-inspired food.
    • We have looked at the company’s performance  and valuation in our past notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

    MMA Offshore (MRM AU): Cyan Lifts Offer

    By David Blennerhassett

    • Back on 25 March, marine and subsea services provider MMA Offshore (MRM AU) entered into a Scheme with Singapore’s Cyan Renewables, a wholly-owned vehicle of Seraya Partners.
    • The A$2.60/share Offer in cash, a 11% premium to last close, was within the IE’s fair value range of A$2.03 to A$2.83. However, shares have consistently traded through terms.
    • Cyna has now bumped the Offer to A$2.70/share – best & final. Thorney (7.95% of shares out) is supportive. The Scheme Meeting will still be held on the 1 July.

    Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU): Nasdaq IPO Plan Dropped; Future Growth Prospect Remains Intact

    By Tina Banerjee

    • Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU) has withdrawn its proposed IPO in the U.S. due to unfavorable market condition. The proposed Nasdaq listing was not predicated on the need to raise capital.
    • As a profitable, cash generative company, Telix is confident that its existing and upcoming cash resources will be sufficient to meet R&D and commercialization needs.
    • Following the successful commercial launch of Illuccix, Telix has demonstrated its ability to develop and commercialize innovative product portfolio, which should accelerate its growth trajectory.

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    Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: How Netflix bring Asian Content to the Global Audience with Minyoung Kim and more

    By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

    In today’s briefing:

    • How Netflix bring Asian Content to the Global Audience with Minyoung Kim
    • Episode 72: Apple Intelligence and Closed Loop Private Computing
    • Recent Sell-Off in Tanker Stocks Provides an Opportunity in Cosco Shipping Energy – 1138.HK
    • West China Cement (2233 HK):  African Cement Play At 4x 2024E PE
    • Money Forward (3994) | Looking Forward to Q2
    • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (20-Jun-2024): Fujitsu launches new AI customization platform.
    • Exor CEO John Elkann: Family Ownership, Football and Ferrari
    • Japanese Regional Banks – Adding a Smaller Cap to Our Key Positive Picks
    • Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Pricing Surged in May | Did Volume Growth Wobble? | (June 2024)
    • Iron Mountain (IRM) – Wednesday, Mar 20, 2024


    How Netflix bring Asian Content to the Global Audience with Minyoung Kim

    By Analyse Asia with Bernard Leong

    • Understanding the audience is the number one rule in content creation and building relationships is important globally
    • Min Yong Kim started her career in food and nutrition but transitioned to the entertainment industry, eventually joining Netflix
    • Lessons learned include the importance of knowing your audience and the shift in thinking about content from traditional media to digital platforms

    This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


    Episode 72: Apple Intelligence and Closed Loop Private Computing

    By The Circuit

    • Apple announced Apple intelligence, integrating AI in a feature-centric way for on-device use
    • The approach focused on useful features rather than spotlighting AI technology
    • Apple’s implementation of AI on iPhone 15 Pro and newer devices showcases their focus on personal intelligence and user-centric design

    This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


    Recent Sell-Off in Tanker Stocks Provides an Opportunity in Cosco Shipping Energy – 1138.HK

    By Rikki Malik

    • All the business fundamentals continue to trend in the right direction
    • The sector has sold off with the general commodity sell-off
    • Investors not giving the benefit of the doubt to future oil demand

    West China Cement (2233 HK):  African Cement Play At 4x 2024E PE

    By Steve Zhou, CFA

    • West China Cement (2233 HK) is a cement company based in Western China.  Sales volume in Africa in 2023 was 2.6 million tons, up 117% from 1.2 million tons in 2022. 
    • The company has 2 million tons of cement capacity in Mozambique, 1.5 million tons in Congo, and 1.3 million tons in Ethiopia. 
    • The company is trading at 4x 2024E PE.  I believe the risk reward is quite high here. 

    Money Forward (3994) | Looking Forward to Q2

    By Mark Chadwick

    • Money Forward’s share price has declined by around 16% since reporting Q1 results.
    • The company will report Q2 results in early July. We expect continued solid momentum
    • We believe the stock price has around 30% upside potential to our target price of ¥6,600

    Tech Supply Chain Tracker (20-Jun-2024): Fujitsu launches new AI customization platform.

    By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

    • Fujitsu launches GenAI platform for advanced AI capabilities, enhancing customization options for users.
    • CuspAI receives US$30M funding, partners with Geoffrey Hinton to address climate change using advanced materials.
    • Global IC fab capacity expected to grow by 6% in 2024 and 7% in 2025, with Taiwan playing a key role in AI innovation.

    Exor CEO John Elkann: Family Ownership, Football and Ferrari

    By In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen

    • Practice of committing to ownership, governance, and leadership alignment with companies similar to other respected examples like Berkshire Hathaway and the Walnbergs in Sweden
    • Focus on long-term thinking, staying current through innovation, and renewing oneself to ensure enduring success in business
    • Importance of family ownership, stability, and long-term thinking in combination with the benefits of being a public company; John Elkann’s background and path to leadership within the family-owned company.

    This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


    Japanese Regional Banks – Adding a Smaller Cap to Our Key Positive Picks

    By Victor Galliano

    • We update twelve Japanese regional banks, and add two new names, to target beneficiaries of the improving interest rate outlook; also banks with attractive credit quality, capital adequacy and valuations
    • We identify the value of equity holdings for disposal among these banks; the lack of near-term easing prospects at the US Fed should support JGB yields and domestic bank valuations
    • We add smaller cap Juroku Financial to our buy list of Tokyo Kiraboshi Financial, Gunma Bank and higher risk option Suruga Bank

    Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Pricing Surged in May | Did Volume Growth Wobble? | (June 2024)

    By Daniel Hellberg

    • Deep-Sea container rates surged in May, yielding best read since June 2022
    • But volume growth into North American WC ports slowed noticeably…
    • We believe Q224 results will impress, and still like our Long/Short pairs

    Iron Mountain (IRM) – Wednesday, Mar 20, 2024

    By Value Investors Club

    • Short recommendation for IRM due to reliance on core document storage business and highly leveraged balance sheet
    • Weak cash flow generation and recurring addbacks in adjusted metrics make stock appear more expensive than it is
    • Concerns about terminal value and ability to meet cash needs raise doubts about long-term viability of the business

    This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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    Daily Brief Event-Driven: JPX Proposes BIG Changes To TOPIX Rules and more

    By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

    In today’s briefing:

    • JPX Proposes BIG Changes To TOPIX Rules, Affects IPOs More Than Market
    • Guzman Y Gomez IPO: Listing & Index Inclusion Timeline
    • Hyundai Motor’s Special Shareholder Return Plan Likely Unveiled in August IR Event
    • Capitol Health (CAJ AU): All-Scrip Non-Binding Merger with Integral Diagnostics
    • Another Major Win for Eoflow [U.S. Federal Appeals Court Issues a Decision]
    • Mizuho Cross-Shareholding – US$11bn of Cross-Shareholding, with at Least US$2bn to Sell over FY24-26
    • MMA Offshore (MRM AU): Cyan Lifts Offer


    JPX Proposes BIG Changes To TOPIX Rules, Affects IPOs More Than Market

    By Travis Lundy

    • In 2021 the JPX established new Listing Rules, and in April 2022 introduced new market segments (Prime/Standard/Growth) to much fanfare. Today, the TSE basically said those changes were meaningless.
    • Today, the TSE announced proposed new rules for TOPIX constituent selection. There is a 2-month consultation period, then rules come out end-Sep 2024. Expect few changes from the Proposal.
    • NextGen TOPIX will be created October 2026. 3-4 dozen ADDs, 500-600 DELETEs to create an index of 1,100-1,200 names. Some obvious large impacts 2+yrs from now, but this changes IPOs.

    Guzman Y Gomez IPO: Listing & Index Inclusion Timeline

    By Brian Freitas

    • Guzman Y Gomez (0817833D AU) has raised A$335.1m in a primary + secondary offering, valuing the company at A$2.23bn. The stock starts trading on the ASX Ltd (ASX AU) today.
    • Just over 54% of the shares are escrowed which means there is a lot of stock that will be available for sale on listing day.
    • Guzman Y Gomez (0817833D AU) could be added to the S&P/ASX 300 Index in September and there could be global index inclusions in November and December.

    Hyundai Motor’s Special Shareholder Return Plan Likely Unveiled in August IR Event

    By Sanghyun Park

    • Hyundai’s IR team appears to have communicated that a new shareholder return policy would be unveiled at the rescheduled CEO Investor Day in August.
    • Hyundai aims to boost shareholder returns above 30% by canceling ₩800B to ₩1T in shares annually. The new dividend strategy won’t debut in August; last year’s three-year plan stands.
    • Equal cancellation ratios apply to common and three types of preferred shares. August’s timing, with ISA tax reforms potentially favoring preferred shares, may enhance prefs’ price impact relative to ords.

    Capitol Health (CAJ AU): All-Scrip Non-Binding Merger with Integral Diagnostics

    By Arun George

    • On 17 June, Capitol Health (CAJ AU) disclosed a non-binding merger proposal from Integral Diagnostics (IDX AU) at 0.12849 Integral shares per Capitol share.
    • Integral has been granted a four-week exclusivity period that ends on 15 July. The transaction will require approval from the ACCC and Capitol shareholders. 
    • The offer is attractive compared to historical exchange ratios, trading ranges and peer multiples. At the last close, the gross spread was 11.7%.  

    Another Major Win for Eoflow [U.S. Federal Appeals Court Issues a Decision]

    By Douglas Kim

    • On 19 June, Eoflow announced that the U.S. Federal Appeals Court issued a decision to overturn the provisional injunction.
    • In other words, the U.S. federal court ordered the first trial’s preliminary injunction banning overseas sales of Eoflow to be overturned. 
    • A jury trial is set at end of November 2024. Depending on the ruling, either side may appeal and a second trial may follow or there may be a settlement.

    Mizuho Cross-Shareholding – US$11bn of Cross-Shareholding, with at Least US$2bn to Sell over FY24-26

    By Sumeet Singh

    • Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding notes, in this note we look at Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)‘s cross-shareholding.
    • Mizuho had a stake over US$100m in at least 34 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of around US$7bn.
    • In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.

    MMA Offshore (MRM AU): Cyan Lifts Offer

    By David Blennerhassett

    • Back on 25 March, marine and subsea services provider MMA Offshore (MRM AU) entered into a Scheme with Singapore’s Cyan Renewables, a wholly-owned vehicle of Seraya Partners.
    • The A$2.60/share Offer in cash, a 11% premium to last close, was within the IE’s fair value range of A$2.03 to A$2.83. However, shares have consistently traded through terms.
    • Cyna has now bumped the Offer to A$2.70/share – best & final. Thorney (7.95% of shares out) is supportive. The Scheme Meeting will still be held on the 1 July.

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    Daily Brief South Korea: Hyundai Motor, Webtoon Entertainment, Innospace, Eoflow and more

    By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

    In today’s briefing:

    • Hyundai Motor’s Special Shareholder Return Plan Likely Unveiled in August IR Event
    • Webtoon Entertainment IPO – Further Thoughts on Valuation – Acquisitions, Buyouts
    • Innospace IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis
    • Another Major Win for Eoflow [U.S. Federal Appeals Court Issues a Decision]


    Hyundai Motor’s Special Shareholder Return Plan Likely Unveiled in August IR Event

    By Sanghyun Park

    • Hyundai’s IR team appears to have communicated that a new shareholder return policy would be unveiled at the rescheduled CEO Investor Day in August.
    • Hyundai aims to boost shareholder returns above 30% by canceling ₩800B to ₩1T in shares annually. The new dividend strategy won’t debut in August; last year’s three-year plan stands.
    • Equal cancellation ratios apply to common and three types of preferred shares. August’s timing, with ISA tax reforms potentially favoring preferred shares, may enhance prefs’ price impact relative to ords.

    Webtoon Entertainment IPO – Further Thoughts on Valuation – Acquisitions, Buyouts

    By Ethan Aw

    • Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US) is looking to raise up to US$315m in its US IPO, down from an earlier reported float of US$500m.
    • Webtoon Entertainment is a global storytelling platform where a community of creators and users discover, create and share new content.
    • In our previous notes, we talked about the company’s historical performance, undertook a peer comparison and shared our thoughts on valuation. In this note, we share additional thoughts on valuation.

    Innospace IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis

    By Douglas Kim

    • Innospace reported solid IPO bookbuilding results. Innospace’s IPO price has been determined at 43,300 won won, which is at the high end of the IPO price range.
    • Our base case valuation of Innospace is target price of 51,481 won per share (12 month view), which is 19% higher than the IPO price.
    • Innospace is involved in the satellite launch vehicle production and launch service business.

    Another Major Win for Eoflow [U.S. Federal Appeals Court Issues a Decision]

    By Douglas Kim

    • On 19 June, Eoflow announced that the U.S. Federal Appeals Court issued a decision to overturn the provisional injunction.
    • In other words, the U.S. federal court ordered the first trial’s preliminary injunction banning overseas sales of Eoflow to be overturned. 
    • A jury trial is set at end of November 2024. Depending on the ruling, either side may appeal and a second trial may follow or there may be a settlement.

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    Daily Brief Macro: China Economic Scenarios and more

    By | Daily Briefs, Macro

    In today’s briefing:

    • China Economic Scenarios
    • EM Watch: Is the Chinese copper demand down 40%?
    • Positioning Watch – Increasing the BETA risk?
    • Scandi Watch: Stay long NOK (and pay NOK rates) into Norges Bank
    • CX Daily: Alipay and WeChat Pay’s Smaller Peers Struggle Amid New Crackdown
    • UK Services Air-Lifts Dovish Pressure
    • US FOMC Projections Too Pessimistic; Two Rate Cuts Likely in 2024 as Inflation Abates


    China Economic Scenarios

    By Alex Ng

    • Uncertainty about China’s growth outlook over the next 1-2 years has increased with the government undertaking a tricky transition toward sustainable growth and a more active regulatory environment
    • Further fiscal policy stimulation will be required to keep growth on track to hit 5.0% in 2024
    • We do not feel that China’s equity market is cheap enough yet to reflect these risks, while domestic investors are not being supported by excess money supply growth.

    EM Watch: Is the Chinese copper demand down 40%?

    By Andreas Steno

    • Welcome to our weekly EM and Metals editorial.
    • It’s hard not to talk about China again this week, given the importance of the metals trade for global inflation expectations.
    • Our live assessment of the Chinese recovery continues to paint a stalling picture in Real Estate, exemplified by the physical copper demand being on the edge of a precipice, while the pollution based metrics hint of a continued surge in industrial production into June.

    Positioning Watch – Increasing the BETA risk?

    By Andreas Steno

    • Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.
    • Our newly invented high-frequency hedge fund positioning data was well received, and we’re working on expanding it to more assets on a running basis.
    • It’s worth revisiting the points we raised about concentration in broader equity indices.

    Scandi Watch: Stay long NOK (and pay NOK rates) into Norges Bank

    By Andreas Steno

    • As Norges Bank gears up for its upcoming meeting on Thursday, all eyes are on the new rate path.
    • It’s widely expected that the central bank will maintain its current rates, putting the spotlight squarely on the future direction of rates.
    • Here’s what we can discern from the key components feeding into Norges Bank’s rate path model ahead of the decision.

    CX Daily: Alipay and WeChat Pay’s Smaller Peers Struggle Amid New Crackdown

    By Caixin Global

    • Payment / In Depth: Alipay and WeChat Pay’s smaller peers struggle amid new crackdown
    • China-Australia / Chinese Premier hails warming ties during Australia trip

    • Jobs / Higher wages, fewer jobs: The changing face of China’s manufacturing sector


    UK Services Air-Lifts Dovish Pressure

    By Phil Rush

    • UK services CPI inflation exceeded expectations again by only slowing to 5.68%, ruling out a June rate cut by being 0.4pp above the BoE’s forecast, but maybe not much more.
    • Headline CPI inflation is only tracking 5bps higher, and underlying measures are slowing, albeit not to target, while volatile airfares drive most of the latest upside.
    • The BoE will probably feel confident enough in its subdued forecast to keep an August cut alive. We still see that as premature but believe the BoE will do it regardless.

    US FOMC Projections Too Pessimistic; Two Rate Cuts Likely in 2024 as Inflation Abates

    By Prasenjit K. Basu

    • FOMC signalled in Mar’24 that 2.6%YoY core PCE inflation would allow three rate cuts in CY24. They now expect core PCE inflation of 2.8%YoY (above the Apr’24 reading of 2.75%YoY). 
    • Core CPI inflation rose 0.2%MoM in May’24, suggesting a similarly benign outcome for core PCE. US M2 contracted for 16 months (Dec’22-Mar’24), an unprecedented tightening compensating for M2-excesses of Mar’20-Feb’22. 
    • Aggressive QT in Mar-Apr’24 successfully squeezed out inflation, and core PCE inflation will likely stay below 2.6%YoY in H2CY24, allowing two 25bp cuts in the Fed Funds rate in CY24.  

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    Daily Brief Singapore: Dyna Mac Holdings and more

    By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

    In today’s briefing:

    • kopi-C with Dyna-Mac’s CEO: ‘We went from near-bankruptcy to having a record order book’


    kopi-C with Dyna-Mac’s CEO: ‘We went from near-bankruptcy to having a record order book’

    By Geoff Howie

    • kopi-C with Dyna-Mac’s CEO: ‘We went from near-bankruptcy to having a record order book’ Offshore oil and gas contractor Dyna-Mac’s CEO AC Lim shares how he overhauled the company’s business practices to bring it back from the brink and achieve remarkable growth.
    • When Lim Ah Cheng, also known as AC Lim, became offshore oil and gas contractor Dyna-Mac’s chief executive officer in 2020, the firm was in crisis.

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    Daily Brief Industrials: Innospace, Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H), ZIM Integrated Shipping Services, Mma Offshore, Enerpac Tool Group , Core & Main , Delhi International Airport Limited and more

    By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

    In today’s briefing:

    • Innospace IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis
    • Recent Sell-Off in Tanker Stocks Provides an Opportunity in Cosco Shipping Energy – 1138.HK
    • Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Pricing Surged in May | Did Volume Growth Wobble? | (June 2024)
    • MMA Offshore (MRM AU): Cyan Lifts Offer
    • Enerpac Tool Group Corp (EPAC) – Wednesday, Mar 20, 2024
    • Core & Main Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – An Insight Into Their Acquisition Strategy & Key Growth Drivers
    • Morning Views Asia:


    Innospace IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis

    By Douglas Kim

    • Innospace reported solid IPO bookbuilding results. Innospace’s IPO price has been determined at 43,300 won won, which is at the high end of the IPO price range.
    • Our base case valuation of Innospace is target price of 51,481 won per share (12 month view), which is 19% higher than the IPO price.
    • Innospace is involved in the satellite launch vehicle production and launch service business.

    Recent Sell-Off in Tanker Stocks Provides an Opportunity in Cosco Shipping Energy – 1138.HK

    By Rikki Malik

    • All the business fundamentals continue to trend in the right direction
    • The sector has sold off with the general commodity sell-off
    • Investors not giving the benefit of the doubt to future oil demand

    Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Pricing Surged in May | Did Volume Growth Wobble? | (June 2024)

    By Daniel Hellberg

    • Deep-Sea container rates surged in May, yielding best read since June 2022
    • But volume growth into North American WC ports slowed noticeably…
    • We believe Q224 results will impress, and still like our Long/Short pairs

    MMA Offshore (MRM AU): Cyan Lifts Offer

    By David Blennerhassett

    • Back on 25 March, marine and subsea services provider MMA Offshore (MRM AU) entered into a Scheme with Singapore’s Cyan Renewables, a wholly-owned vehicle of Seraya Partners.
    • The A$2.60/share Offer in cash, a 11% premium to last close, was within the IE’s fair value range of A$2.03 to A$2.83. However, shares have consistently traded through terms.
    • Cyna has now bumped the Offer to A$2.70/share – best & final. Thorney (7.95% of shares out) is supportive. The Scheme Meeting will still be held on the 1 July.

    Enerpac Tool Group Corp (EPAC) – Wednesday, Mar 20, 2024

    By Value Investors Club

    • Enerpac Tool Group (EPAC) designs, manufactures, and distributes hydraulic tools with a strong market position and reputation for reliability
    • Despite its strong competitive position, growth opportunities, and operational execution, Enerpac’s P/E multiple is at a five-year low, offering a significant discount to its peers
    • With a new management team implementing operational improvements, investors have the opportunity to invest in a potentially undervalued stock with long-term potential for growth and value creation

    This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


    Core & Main Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – An Insight Into Their Acquisition Strategy & Key Growth Drivers

    By Baptista Research

    • Based on a rigorous examination of Core & Main’s first quarter fiscal 2024 results, a nuanced investment thesis for the company can be deduced by delving into various facets of its operations and financial performance.
    • Core & Main, a prominent distributor of water, wastewater, storm drainage, and fire protection products, has marketed itself effectively as an indispensable partner to municipalities, private water companies, and professional contractors.
    • Positively, Core & Main reported a robust 11% growth in net sales reaching a record $1.74 billion for the quarter.

    Morning Views Asia:

    By Leonard Law, CFA

    Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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      Daily Brief United States: Netflix Inc, Apple , Iron Mountain, Enerpac Tool Group , Tidewater , F&G Annuities & Life , Power Integrations, Selective Insurance, Core & Main , Hanover Insurance Group and more

      By | Daily Briefs, United States

      In today’s briefing:

      • How Netflix bring Asian Content to the Global Audience with Minyoung Kim
      • Episode 72: Apple Intelligence and Closed Loop Private Computing
      • Iron Mountain (IRM) – Wednesday, Mar 20, 2024
      • Enerpac Tool Group Corp (EPAC) – Wednesday, Mar 20, 2024
      • Tidewater Midstream Infrastr (TWM.) – Wednesday, Mar 20, 2024
      • F&G Annuities & Life Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Expansion of Product Portfolio and Penetration into New Demographics! – Major Drivers
      • Power Integrations Inc (POWI) – Wednesday, Mar 20, 2024
      • Selective Insurance Group Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Focus on Investment Strategy and Asset Allocation! – Major Drivers
      • Core & Main Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – An Insight Into Their Acquisition Strategy & Key Growth Drivers
      • The Hanover Insurance Group Inc.: Initiation of Coverage


      How Netflix bring Asian Content to the Global Audience with Minyoung Kim

      By Analyse Asia with Bernard Leong

      • Understanding the audience is the number one rule in content creation and building relationships is important globally
      • Min Yong Kim started her career in food and nutrition but transitioned to the entertainment industry, eventually joining Netflix
      • Lessons learned include the importance of knowing your audience and the shift in thinking about content from traditional media to digital platforms

      This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


      Episode 72: Apple Intelligence and Closed Loop Private Computing

      By The Circuit

      • Apple announced Apple intelligence, integrating AI in a feature-centric way for on-device use
      • The approach focused on useful features rather than spotlighting AI technology
      • Apple’s implementation of AI on iPhone 15 Pro and newer devices showcases their focus on personal intelligence and user-centric design

      This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


      Iron Mountain (IRM) – Wednesday, Mar 20, 2024

      By Value Investors Club

      • Short recommendation for IRM due to reliance on core document storage business and highly leveraged balance sheet
      • Weak cash flow generation and recurring addbacks in adjusted metrics make stock appear more expensive than it is
      • Concerns about terminal value and ability to meet cash needs raise doubts about long-term viability of the business

      This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


      Enerpac Tool Group Corp (EPAC) – Wednesday, Mar 20, 2024

      By Value Investors Club

      • Enerpac Tool Group (EPAC) designs, manufactures, and distributes hydraulic tools with a strong market position and reputation for reliability
      • Despite its strong competitive position, growth opportunities, and operational execution, Enerpac’s P/E multiple is at a five-year low, offering a significant discount to its peers
      • With a new management team implementing operational improvements, investors have the opportunity to invest in a potentially undervalued stock with long-term potential for growth and value creation

      This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


      Tidewater Midstream Infrastr (TWM.) – Wednesday, Mar 20, 2024

      By Value Investors Club

      • Tidewater Midstream & Infrastructure is a Canadian refining and midstream business with the Prince George Refinery as its primary asset
      • Recent events, including the sale of gas processing plants and reaching capacity at the HDRD facility, have led to positive cash flow for the company for the first time
      • TWM is focused on using its newfound cash flow for share repurchases and new investments in neglected assets, with projected upside potential of ~3x

      This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


      F&G Annuities & Life Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Expansion of Product Portfolio and Penetration into New Demographics! – Major Drivers

      By Baptista Research

      • F&G started the year with robust first-quarter results, demonstrating a strategic focus on growth and maintaining a balanced capital management process while transitioning into more capital-light strategies.
      • The company reported gross sales of $3.5 billion, marking its second-highest gross sales performance on record, which was a 6% increase from the previous year.
      • This performance was driven by sustainable momentum across their multi channel new business platform and strong demand in a volatile and higher interest rate environment.

      Power Integrations Inc (POWI) – Wednesday, Mar 20, 2024

      By Value Investors Club

      • Power Integrations (POWI) is facing persistently low earnings quality over the past five quarters due to a channel inventory adjustment, which they claim is almost complete
      • Revenues have dropped by 37% since 2021, casting doubt on whether the adjustment fully explains the decline
      • Financial performance in 2024 could lead to a shift in the investment narrative towards normalized revenues below recent peaks and increased competition from Chinese semiconductor vendors, potentially affecting earnings and forward multiples

      This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


      Selective Insurance Group Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Focus on Investment Strategy and Asset Allocation! – Major Drivers

      By Baptista Research

      • Selective Insurance Group recently disclosed its financial results for the first quarter of 2024, providing a mixed picture of achievements and challenges that offer a nuanced view for investors.
      • The company posted an operating return on equity (ROE) of 11.7% and reported a 16% growth in net premiums written, driven primarily by strong pricing, steady retention, and continued exposure increases.
      • However, these positive developments were somewhat overshadowed by a combined ratio of 98.2%, which was above the target of 95%, largely due to increased reserving actions.

      Core & Main Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – An Insight Into Their Acquisition Strategy & Key Growth Drivers

      By Baptista Research

      • Based on a rigorous examination of Core & Main’s first quarter fiscal 2024 results, a nuanced investment thesis for the company can be deduced by delving into various facets of its operations and financial performance.
      • Core & Main, a prominent distributor of water, wastewater, storm drainage, and fire protection products, has marketed itself effectively as an indispensable partner to municipalities, private water companies, and professional contractors.
      • Positively, Core & Main reported a robust 11% growth in net sales reaching a record $1.74 billion for the quarter.

      The Hanover Insurance Group Inc.: Initiation of Coverage

      By Baptista Research

      • The Hanover Insurance Group has demonstrated a strong start to the year with robust financial and operational performance in the first quarter.
      • The company’s disciplined approach towards margin recapture, effective catastrophe management, and strategic growth initiatives are likely to continue supporting its profitability and shareholder value in the medium to long term.
      • The Hanover Insurance Group reported after-tax operating income of $112 million or $3.08 per diluted share in the first quarter, representing an operating return on equity of 15%.

      💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

      Sign Up for Free

      The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

      • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
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