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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: SK Innovation, Tamboran Resources and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Digging into Chosun Ilbo’s Report on SK Group’s SK Innovation & SK E&S Merger Plans
  • Tamboran Resources US Offering – Strong Recent Momentum but CDIs Have Been Volatile Since Listing


Digging into Chosun Ilbo’s Report on SK Group’s SK Innovation & SK E&S Merger Plans

By Sanghyun Park

  • SK Group plans to merge SK Innovation and 90%-owned SK E&S by month-end. Chosun Ilbo’s report solidifies market confidence due to its credibility and likely intentional leak by SK Group.
  • Initially considered but deemed lower priority than SK IE Technology sale; SK Group opts for this alternative due to challenging market conditions for SKITE sale.
  • SK Innovation and SKIET rise with hopes of resolving liquidity issues and avoiding sacrifice. SK Inc is negatively impacted by concerns over valuation double counting from this merger.

Tamboran Resources US Offering – Strong Recent Momentum but CDIs Have Been Volatile Since Listing

By Clarence Chu

  • Tamboran Resources (TBN AU) is looking to raise US$175m from listing its shares in the US.
  • Tamboran Resources is an early stage, independent natural gas exploration and production company.
  • In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and the listing impact.

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Daily Brief Financials: SBI Sumishin Net Bank , Muthoot Microfin, Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, China Merchants China Direct Investments, Hargreaves Lansdown, Office Properties Income Trust, Road King Infrastructure and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • TOPIX Market Consultation: Wider Next-Gen Universe in a Couple of Years; But Stocks Moving Already
  • Muthoot Microfin Lockup Expiry – Pre-IPO Investors Well in the Money Despite the Stock’s Performance
  • Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Dec 24:  A Long-Short Basket Trade Idea with High Momentum
  • CMCDI Update: Warning Shot Fired At AGM Despite Kan’s Successful Re-Election
  • CVC Consortium/Hargreaves Lansdown: Cheap Possible Offer
  • Office Properties Incom Trust (OPI 4.5 2025) – Thursday, Mar 21, 2024
  • Morning Views Asia: Road King Infrastructure


TOPIX Market Consultation: Wider Next-Gen Universe in a Couple of Years; But Stocks Moving Already

By Brian Freitas

  • JPX has commenced a market consultation on changes to the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX) including expansion of the universe and periodic stock selection.
  • Based on current market cap/ liquidity, there could be 38 adds and 447 deletions for the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, though the changes only start in October 2026. 
  • The deletions will be phased out of the index in 8 steps that will end in July 2028 and most of the stocks will move to the TOPIX Next-tier. 

Muthoot Microfin Lockup Expiry – Pre-IPO Investors Well in the Money Despite the Stock’s Performance

By Ethan Aw

  • Muthoot Microfin (MUTHOOTM IN) raised around US$115m in its Indian IPO, after pricing the deal at the top end of its IPO range at INR291/share.
  • Muthoot Microfin is a microfinance institution providing micro-loans to women customers with a focus on the rural regions of India.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Dec 24:  A Long-Short Basket Trade Idea with High Momentum

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2024.
  • Currently, we see 16 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 index and 50 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 500 index.

CMCDI Update: Warning Shot Fired At AGM Despite Kan’s Successful Re-Election

By Alec Tseung

  • While Elizabeth Kan barely survived the AGM vote, ASM has effectively mobilized minority shareholders.
  • Lazard (owns 15% of CMCDI) probably voted alongside ASM (owns 9%). Other than China Merchants Group and Victor Chu, almost no “outside shareholders” voted in favor of Kan, .
  • The next battleground is a vote in November when CMCDI needs to renew its investment management agreement. Intense behind-the-scene negotiations are expected, given the bargaining power ASM now demonstrated.

CVC Consortium/Hargreaves Lansdown: Cheap Possible Offer

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • The private equity consortium (CVC, Nordic Capital, and Abu Dhabi Investment Authority) has upped the possible offer to 1,140p/share in cash, including 30p final dividend, with a rollover equity alternative.
  • The offer implied valuation of 17.2x NTM forward P/E and dividend yield of 4.25% are historically low for HL. An offer in line with peer’s multiples would imply 1,326p.
  • The rollover equity alternative appears to be intended to give founders a means of sharing in HL’s future success. Gross spread is 0.5%.

Office Properties Incom Trust (OPI 4.5 2025) – Thursday, Mar 21, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Buy long positions in OPI 4.5 2/1/25 bonds, currently trading at 83 with a 28% yield
  • Company has 11 months to refinance bonds with Moelis assisting in debt restructuring
  • With 5.3B in total assets and 1.74B already pledged as collateral, company has enough to secure upcoming 650M maturity

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Morning Views Asia: Road King Infrastructure

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Mimasu Semiconductor Industry, SenseTime Group , PC Partner, Elan Microelectronics, Mixi Inc, TYC Brother Industrial, Perfect and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Shin-Etsu Chem TOB for Rest of Mimasu Semi (8155) – Far Too Cheap, But No Squeaky Wheel No Grease
  • Sensetime Placement – Seems Highly Opportunistic
  • Mimasu Semiconductor (8155 JP): Shin-Etsu (4063 JP)’s Tender Offer Launches
  • PC Partners (1263 HK) Muses SGX Listing & HKEx Withdrawal
  • TechChain Insights: Call with Elan Micro; AI PC Significant Uptake 4Q24/1H25; Supply Chain Preparing
  • MIXI Inc. (2121 JP) – At an Inflection Point to Generate Shareholder Value
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (21-Jun-2024): TYC Brother Industrial excels in NEVs; US plant ready by 1Q25.
  • Perfect Corp.


Shin-Etsu Chem TOB for Rest of Mimasu Semi (8155) – Far Too Cheap, But No Squeaky Wheel No Grease

By Travis Lundy

  • Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP), owner of a 44% stake in Mimasu Semiconductor Industry (8155 JP), will launch the TOB to buy out Mimasu minority holders, as pre-announced 2mos ago.
  • Not surprising. They bought in 19yrs ago, raised to 40+% 18yrs ago, then waited. Finally, we have a deal. It’s too cheap but in 18yrs, I recall zero activism here.
  • Shin-Etsu starts with ~45%, and crossholders and the chairman get it to 53%. Then they need a bit to get them to 67% but it should be straightforward.

Sensetime Placement – Seems Highly Opportunistic

By Sumeet Singh

  • SenseTime Group (20 HK)  aims to raise up to US$263m via selling around 4.5% stake.
  • Sensetime hasn’t had the best of times since listing, however, the shares have rebounded recently on generative AI buzz around the stock.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Mimasu Semiconductor (8155 JP): Shin-Etsu (4063 JP)’s Tender Offer Launches

By Arun George

  • Mimasu Semiconductor Industry (8155 JP) notes that the pre-condition for Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP)’s JPY3,700 tender offer has been satisfied. The tender runs from 21 June to 5 August.
  • The share price has traded at or above the offer on 15 out of 38 trading days, partly due to expectations of a counteroffer. 
  • While the offer is below the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range, it represents an all-time high. The lack of activists or competing offers suggests a done deal.

PC Partners (1263 HK) Muses SGX Listing & HKEx Withdrawal

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 18th June, personal computer (PC) parts and accessories play PC Partner (1263 HK) announced a profit alert for 1H24. 
  • That’s positive. What is also interesting is that the board is considering an SGX listing, by way of introduction, and applying for the withdrawal of the HKEx listing.
  • Precedents are thin on the ground. And for good reason. The process is not straightforward.

TechChain Insights: Call with Elan Micro; AI PC Significant Uptake 4Q24/1H25; Supply Chain Preparing

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • We hosted a conference call with Elan Microelectronics management; We view the company as a Structural Long position for the AI PC upgrade cycle.
  • From the company’s perspective, significant impact from AI PC demand will come but not until 4Q24E or 1H25E. However, supply chain excess inventory improved and prepping for upcycle.
  • An estimated 90% of AI PC models launched at CES 2024 use Elan’s products in their design; Elan well positioned for the upcycle and entrenching its position. Maintain Structural Long.

MIXI Inc. (2121 JP) – At an Inflection Point to Generate Shareholder Value

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Approaching a transformational phase – MIXI Inc. is a digital content company generating earnings from its ‘MONSTER STRIKE’ mobile gaming franchise.
  • Operating in a mature domestic gaming market, the company has successfully diversified into lifestyle and sports, but to date has experienced limited earnings contribution.
  • We believe this is about to change, driven by the new monetization strategy for the ‘FamilyAlbum’ video and photo- sharing service app in FY3/25. 

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (21-Jun-2024): TYC Brother Industrial excels in NEVs; US plant ready by 1Q25.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • TYC Brother Industrial is set to dominate the NEV market with a US plant scheduled to be operational by the first quarter of 2025.
  • Despite sanctions, a Russian company has introduced the MP21 SBC to rival the Raspberry Pi 5, showcasing the competitiveness of the technology market.
  • Cerebras and Dell have joined forces to challenge Nvidia in the AI market, highlighting the growth of AI accelerator technology for servers. Taiwan’s carbon market is advancing with new initiatives and regulations, while the UK collaborates with Taiwan to lead in semiconductors at Semi-Impact forum. India is ramping up cobalt supply efforts to meet growing demand.

Perfect Corp.

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Perfect Corp. provides an AI and machine learning based B2B SaaS platform for virtual try on and marketing of beauty and fashion products as well as six mobile apps sold B2C for makeup suggestions, try-on, tutorials, photo and video editing and most recently, Gen AI creation and editing.
  • It is expanding its offering to new verticals and has strong IP as well as the largest database for AI training in the industry.
  • It has a dominant market share and serves almost all the major beauty brands worldwide.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Capitol Health, Takeda Pharmaceutical , Top Glove Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Capitol Health (CAJ AU)/Integral Diagnostics (IDX AU): An Improved Image
  • Additional Points Add to Our Recent Bearish View on Takeda.
  • Top Glove Corp (TOPG MK): Volume and ASP Growth Achieved in 3QFY24; Sees Higher Global Demand Ahead


Capitol Health (CAJ AU)/Integral Diagnostics (IDX AU): An Improved Image

By David Blennerhassett

  • Diagnostic imaging provider Capitol Health (CAJ AU) has announced it has entered into a process deed with Integral Diagnostics (IDX AU)
  • This non-binding indicative Offer, by way of a Scheme, involves 0.12849 new IDX shares for each share of Capitol.  The next step is four weeks of two-way confirmatory due diligence.
  • The implied Offer Price under the scrip terms is A$0.3284/share. Should the transaction complete, Integral would hold 63% in the combined group. This is the second Integral/Capitol merger attempt.

Additional Points Add to Our Recent Bearish View on Takeda.

By Avien Pillay

  • Production problems of Vyvanse generics seem to be largely resolved with nine of the ten suppliers back in stock.
  • Safety concerns with Takeda’s approved psoriasis competitor does raise further concerns as they are both TYK-2 inhibitors.
  • The company’s $900 m big restructure and cited areas for margin improvement are not “convincing” and lack detail.   

Top Glove Corp (TOPG MK): Volume and ASP Growth Achieved in 3QFY24; Sees Higher Global Demand Ahead

By Tina Banerjee

  • Top Glove Corp (TOPG MK) achieved 16% QoQ revenue growth in 3QFY24, on 13% sequential volume increase and higher ASP. 3QFY24 operational loss reduced to RM34M from RM59M in 2QFY24.
  • Considering the current demand and supply condition, Top Glove expects the ASP to further increase. The company aims to recover its EBITDA margin to pre-pandemic levels of 15% by FY26.
  • With rising import alert and expected tariff increase on Chinese manufacturers, the US demand may shift from China to Malaysia. Top Glove is poised to benefit from potential trade diversion.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Tatsuta Electric Wire & Cable, Mma Offshore, SharkNinja and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Tatsuta Electric (5809 JP): Eneos Refuses to Bump, Board Capitulates
  • ENEOS Launches Tatsuta Elec (5809) “Minority” Takeout at Same Price as 18mos Ago
  • MMA Offshore (MRM AU): Disappointing Final Offer Poses a Vote Risk
  • Sharkninja (SN) – Thursday, Mar 21, 2024


Tatsuta Electric (5809 JP): Eneos Refuses to Bump, Board Capitulates

By Arun George

  • 18 months after announcing the offer, ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP) launched the Tatsuta Electric Wire & Cable (5809 JP) tender offer at unchanged JPY720, 4.9% below the last close price.  
  • The Board requested a bump, but Eneos refused due to Tatsuta’s missed targets, no competing offer and the supportive updated IFA valuation
  • The lack of a bump, no vocal opposition, deal fatigue, the Board’s unexpected recommendation, weak earnings and 73.9% takeover premium will help acceptance.

ENEOS Launches Tatsuta Elec (5809) “Minority” Takeout at Same Price as 18mos Ago

By Travis Lundy

  • ENEOS announced its deal for Tatsuta Electric Wire & Cable (5809 JP) 18mos ago. China approval took a while. Now they have launched. 
  • The TOPIX Non-Ferrous Metals sector has returned 60%. TOPIX 50%. There is a new TSE Sheriff in town asking for PBR 1.0x. BVPS is up. Presumably, forward CF is up.
  • But the TOB Price is unchanged. That is disappointing. One reason why a higher price was rejected was that no other buyer approached to take over the company. 🤷🏻‍♂️

MMA Offshore (MRM AU): Disappointing Final Offer Poses a Vote Risk

By Arun George

  • Cyan Renewables has bumped its Mma Offshore (MRM AU) offer to A$2.70 per share, a 3.8% premium to the previous A$2.60 offer.
  • The bump is derisory in the context of recent earnings upgrades. Since the binding proposal, MMA has upgraded its FY24 EBITDA and EBIT guidance by 9.8% and 15.5%, respectively.
  • The AFR reported that around 30% of the register opposed the previous offer. A cursory 3.8% bump is unlikely to sway most of these dissenters to change their views.

Sharkninja (SN) – Thursday, Mar 21, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • SharkNinja is a newly listed company with popular consumer brands Shark and Ninja
  • Despite challenges in brand-building and international markets, the company achieved a 15% operating margin in 2023
  • Analysts project an annualized return of 18-20% based on current earnings yield and expected organic earnings growth

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Consumer: Taste Gourmet, Ryohin Keikaku, Hengdeli Holdings, Sa Sa International Hldgs, Hyundai Motor India , J & J Snack Foods, Adient PLC, Kontoor Brands , Pvh Corp, Abercrombie & Fitch Co Cl A and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Taste Gourmet (8371 HK): Strong FY24, 6.7x PE, Cash ~23% of Mkt Cap and >8% Dividend Yield
  • Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal – Still 1 ADD, 1 DELETE, 1 Dark Horse, But #2-Ranked ADD Is Close
  • Hengdeli Holdings (3389 HK)’s Pitiful Partial Offer
  • Sa Sa Intl (178 HK): Every Coin Has Two Sides
  • Hyundai Motor India: Can It Thrive Amidst a Rapidly Evolving Mobility Landscape?
  • J&J Snack Foods Corp.: Initiation Of Coverage – Growth from Branded Products & 3 Other Major Drivers
  • Adient plc: Initiation Of Coverage – What Is Its Business Strategy & How Is It Growing In China? – Major Drivers
  • Kontoor Brands: Initiation Of Coverage – Are Its DTC & Tech Investments Yielding The Necessary Results? – Major Drivers
  • Pvh Corp – VNCE: 1Q Review: Multiple Positives Coming to the Fore; Reiterate Buy, $3 PT
  • Abercrombie & Fitch Co Cl A – AKA: Snapping the Store: Building Unique Brands; Retierate Buy, $25 PT


Taste Gourmet (8371 HK): Strong FY24, 6.7x PE, Cash ~23% of Mkt Cap and >8% Dividend Yield

By Sameer Taneja

  • Taste Gourmet (8371 HK) reported revenues up 37% YoY and profits up 29% YoY (lower than our expectation of 39% profit growth) due to a slightly weaker-than-expected Q4.
  • Dividends for H2 were 7.4 cents/share (overall FY24:12.9 cents), implying an 8.1% dividend yield. Net cash on the balance sheet was 143 mn HKD (23% of market cap).
  • Trading at 6.7x PE FY24 (March end) and with an excellent execution track record, we believe that the company will be able to post more robust numbers in FY25. 

Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal – Still 1 ADD, 1 DELETE, 1 Dark Horse, But #2-Ranked ADD Is Close

By Travis Lundy

  • The Sep 2024 Nikkei 225 Review base date is six weeks away. One can no extrapolate results quite accurately. It still gives us one ADD, one DELETE, and capping fun.
  • Recently, Yanai-san sold more Fast Retailing (9983 JP). More active holders own more stock (which may mean less interest to buy later), and only 1% to go to avoid capping.
  • There should be one DELETE, one ADD. There is a low-probability Dark Horse ADD but I expect Kokusai Electric (6525) to be added in March 2025. 

Hengdeli Holdings (3389 HK)’s Pitiful Partial Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • After watch accessory play Hengdeli Holdings (3389 HK) was suspended on the 17th June pursuant to the Takeovers Code, I didn’t hold out high hopes of a knock-out Offer.
  • And on cue, CEO Tony Cheung (16%), son of founder Zhang Yuping (holding 17%), has made a Partial Offer (for 15% of shares outstanding) at HK$0.16/share, towards gaining majority control.
  • That’s a 18.5% premium to last close … and a 80% discount to NAV, and a 47% discount to Hengdeli’s net cash as at 31 December 2023.

Sa Sa Intl (178 HK): Every Coin Has Two Sides

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Despite missing market consensus, Sa Sa International Hldgs (178 HK)‘s FY24 result still have silver linings. Its resumption of dividends with a 70% payout ratio is welcoming.
  • Tax credit in 2H23 has distorted comparison. At pre-tax level, 2H24 profit has gone up by 29.5%. Cost management is solid, generating a 0.9pp FY24 operating margin expansion. 
  • While overall 1Q25 sales have dropped, mainland China sales surged 83.9%. The macro environment should have bottomed and government efforts to attract tourists will pay off.  

Hyundai Motor India: Can It Thrive Amidst a Rapidly Evolving Mobility Landscape?

By Devi Subhakesan

  • India’s passenger vehicle industry is shifting towards alternative fuels and facing intense competition, amidst changing customer preferences.
  • Despite a growing vehicle market, Hyundai Motor India (HMIL) faces a tough battle to defend its market share given changing industry dynamics.
  • With more competitors in the fray, including its parent group company Kia and EV leader BYD, Hyundai Motor India is in for a challenging ride.

J&J Snack Foods Corp.: Initiation Of Coverage – Growth from Branded Products & 3 Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The first quarter earnings of J&J Snack Foods Corporation (J&J) highlights several aspects of the company’s financial health and operational performance.
  • The company’s Q1 2024 results were influenced by a challenging consumer environment, with many customers witnessing yearly declines in consumer traffic and consumption.
  • To counteract these trends, J&J leveraged its popular brands to optimize sales opportunities, resulting in less than a 1% sales decline.

Adient plc: Initiation Of Coverage – What Is Its Business Strategy & How Is It Growing In China? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on Adient, a global leader in automotive seating.
  • The company has continued to focus on business performance, launch execution, and continuous improvement in FY 2024.
  • Some highlights in the first fiscal quarter of 2024 include a total revenue of $3.7 billion, a slight decrease compared to the previous year’s first quarter, and an adjusted EBITDA totalling $216 million, reflecting an increase of 2%.

Kontoor Brands: Initiation Of Coverage – Are Its DTC & Tech Investments Yielding The Necessary Results? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on apparel major, Kontoor Brands Inc. The company released its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2023 in its recent earnings conference call.
  • The company’s Vice President, President, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Chief Operating Officer, and Chief Financial Officer were on the call to provide insights on Kontoor’s business accomplishments and forecasts.
  • One crucial undertaking announced in the conference call was Project Jeanius.

Pvh Corp – VNCE: 1Q Review: Multiple Positives Coming to the Fore; Reiterate Buy, $3 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating and $3 price target for Vince Holding Corp. after the company reported slightly better-than expected 1QFY24 (April) results and reiterated FY24 guidance.
  • We believe, as the Vince operating model continues to normalize in FY24, it will become increasingly clear to investors the material positives at Vince, from a focus on full price selling, strong wholesale order book, continuing emphasis on higher overall returns and a strengthening balance sheet, which we believe will drive a higher valuation for VNCE, especially with momentum ramping even higher from a “normalized” 2HFY24.
  • As such, we reiterate our Buy rating and $3 price target for VNCE.

Abercrombie & Fitch Co Cl A – AKA: Snapping the Store: Building Unique Brands; Retierate Buy, $25 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, $25 price target and projections of a.k.a. Brands after touring the company’s Culture Kings store in Las Vegas and Princess Polly unit in Los Angeles.
  • We believe both locations represent impressive retail units which will allow for continued growth (and high returns) going forward, as a.k.a. expands their retail footprint, with three new Princess Polly stores on track for a 2H24 opening.
  • As such, we remain excited by the potential for the ongoing turn at the company, which we believe will be even further driven by continued retail expansion, and reiterate our Buy rating and $25 price target for AKA.

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Most Read: Mcdonald’s Japan, SBI Sumishin Net Bank , Mimasu Semiconductor Industry, Mizuho Financial Group, Tatsuta Electric Wire & Cable, Mma Offshore, SK Innovation, SenseTime Group , Ryohin Keikaku and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • JPX Proposes BIG Changes To TOPIX Rules, Affects IPOs More Than Market
  • TOPIX Market Consultation: Wider Next-Gen Universe in a Couple of Years; But Stocks Moving Already
  • Shin-Etsu Chem TOB for Rest of Mimasu Semi (8155) – Far Too Cheap, But No Squeaky Wheel No Grease
  • Mizuho Cross-Shareholding – US$11bn of Cross-Shareholding, with at Least US$2bn to Sell over FY24-26
  • Tatsuta Electric (5809 JP): Eneos Refuses to Bump, Board Capitulates
  • MMA Offshore (MRM AU): Cyan Lifts Offer
  • ENEOS Launches Tatsuta Elec (5809) “Minority” Takeout at Same Price as 18mos Ago
  • Digging into Chosun Ilbo’s Report on SK Group’s SK Innovation & SK E&S Merger Plans
  • Sensetime Placement – Seems Highly Opportunistic
  • Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal – Still 1 ADD, 1 DELETE, 1 Dark Horse, But #2-Ranked ADD Is Close


JPX Proposes BIG Changes To TOPIX Rules, Affects IPOs More Than Market

By Travis Lundy

  • In 2021 the JPX established new Listing Rules, and in April 2022 introduced new market segments (Prime/Standard/Growth) to much fanfare. Today, the TSE basically said those changes were meaningless.
  • Today, the TSE announced proposed new rules for TOPIX constituent selection. There is a 2-month consultation period, then rules come out end-Sep 2024. Expect few changes from the Proposal.
  • NextGen TOPIX will be created October 2026. 3-4 dozen ADDs, 500-600 DELETEs to create an index of 1,100-1,200 names. Some obvious large impacts 2+yrs from now, but this changes IPOs.

TOPIX Market Consultation: Wider Next-Gen Universe in a Couple of Years; But Stocks Moving Already

By Brian Freitas

  • JPX has commenced a market consultation on changes to the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX) including expansion of the universe and periodic stock selection.
  • Based on current market cap/ liquidity, there could be 38 adds and 447 deletions for the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, though the changes only start in October 2026. 
  • The deletions will be phased out of the index in 8 steps that will end in July 2028 and most of the stocks will move to the TOPIX Next-tier. 

Shin-Etsu Chem TOB for Rest of Mimasu Semi (8155) – Far Too Cheap, But No Squeaky Wheel No Grease

By Travis Lundy

  • Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP), owner of a 44% stake in Mimasu Semiconductor Industry (8155 JP), will launch the TOB to buy out Mimasu minority holders, as pre-announced 2mos ago.
  • Not surprising. They bought in 19yrs ago, raised to 40+% 18yrs ago, then waited. Finally, we have a deal. It’s too cheap but in 18yrs, I recall zero activism here.
  • Shin-Etsu starts with ~45%, and crossholders and the chairman get it to 53%. Then they need a bit to get them to 67% but it should be straightforward.

Mizuho Cross-Shareholding – US$11bn of Cross-Shareholding, with at Least US$2bn to Sell over FY24-26

By Sumeet Singh

  • Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding notes, in this note we look at Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)‘s cross-shareholding.
  • Mizuho had a stake over US$100m in at least 34 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of around US$7bn.
  • In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.

Tatsuta Electric (5809 JP): Eneos Refuses to Bump, Board Capitulates

By Arun George

  • 18 months after announcing the offer, ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP) launched the Tatsuta Electric Wire & Cable (5809 JP) tender offer at unchanged JPY720, 4.9% below the last close price.  
  • The Board requested a bump, but Eneos refused due to Tatsuta’s missed targets, no competing offer and the supportive updated IFA valuation
  • The lack of a bump, no vocal opposition, deal fatigue, the Board’s unexpected recommendation, weak earnings and 73.9% takeover premium will help acceptance.

MMA Offshore (MRM AU): Cyan Lifts Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on 25 March, marine and subsea services provider MMA Offshore (MRM AU) entered into a Scheme with Singapore’s Cyan Renewables, a wholly-owned vehicle of Seraya Partners.
  • The A$2.60/share Offer in cash, a 11% premium to last close, was within the IE’s fair value range of A$2.03 to A$2.83. However, shares have consistently traded through terms.
  • Cyna has now bumped the Offer to A$2.70/share – best & final. Thorney (7.95% of shares out) is supportive. The Scheme Meeting will still be held on the 1 July.

ENEOS Launches Tatsuta Elec (5809) “Minority” Takeout at Same Price as 18mos Ago

By Travis Lundy

  • ENEOS announced its deal for Tatsuta Electric Wire & Cable (5809 JP) 18mos ago. China approval took a while. Now they have launched. 
  • The TOPIX Non-Ferrous Metals sector has returned 60%. TOPIX 50%. There is a new TSE Sheriff in town asking for PBR 1.0x. BVPS is up. Presumably, forward CF is up.
  • But the TOB Price is unchanged. That is disappointing. One reason why a higher price was rejected was that no other buyer approached to take over the company. 🤷🏻‍♂️

Digging into Chosun Ilbo’s Report on SK Group’s SK Innovation & SK E&S Merger Plans

By Sanghyun Park

  • SK Group plans to merge SK Innovation and 90%-owned SK E&S by month-end. Chosun Ilbo’s report solidifies market confidence due to its credibility and likely intentional leak by SK Group.
  • Initially considered but deemed lower priority than SK IE Technology sale; SK Group opts for this alternative due to challenging market conditions for SKITE sale.
  • SK Innovation and SKIET rise with hopes of resolving liquidity issues and avoiding sacrifice. SK Inc is negatively impacted by concerns over valuation double counting from this merger.

Sensetime Placement – Seems Highly Opportunistic

By Sumeet Singh

  • SenseTime Group (20 HK)  aims to raise up to US$263m via selling around 4.5% stake.
  • Sensetime hasn’t had the best of times since listing, however, the shares have rebounded recently on generative AI buzz around the stock.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal – Still 1 ADD, 1 DELETE, 1 Dark Horse, But #2-Ranked ADD Is Close

By Travis Lundy

  • The Sep 2024 Nikkei 225 Review base date is six weeks away. One can no extrapolate results quite accurately. It still gives us one ADD, one DELETE, and capping fun.
  • Recently, Yanai-san sold more Fast Retailing (9983 JP). More active holders own more stock (which may mean less interest to buy later), and only 1% to go to avoid capping.
  • There should be one DELETE, one ADD. There is a low-probability Dark Horse ADD but I expect Kokusai Electric (6525) to be added in March 2025. 

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: KRX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 14th): L&F and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 14th): L&F, Samsung SDI, Samsung C&T, Sk Hynix, Hyundai Motor
  • Garrett DeSimone, Head of Quantitative Research at OptionMetrics


KRX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 14th): L&F, Samsung SDI, Samsung C&T, Sk Hynix, Hyundai Motor

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX Stocks as of Jun 14th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD5.8bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in L&F, Samsung SDI, Samsung C&T, Sk Hynix, Hyundai Motor.

Garrett DeSimone, Head of Quantitative Research at OptionMetrics

By Alpha Exchange

  • Dissertation findings show that earnings event risk premium for single stocks makes straddles punitive to own
  • Discussion on inflated S&P 500 implied volume levels before macro events like CPI, nonfarm payrolls report, and FOMC meetings
  • Recent work on implied dividends shows very little risk premium in dividends, market charging almost nothing for bearing risk of disappointing dividends

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


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Daily Brief ESG: The Key to Higher Valuations for Mid-To-Small Caps Is Management’s Strong Will to Achieve Its Goals and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • The Key to Higher Valuations for Mid-To-Small Caps Is Management’s Strong Will to Achieve Its Goals


The Key to Higher Valuations for Mid-To-Small Caps Is Management’s Strong Will to Achieve Its Goals

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Even companies with high valuations and return on capital have room to further raise their return on capital and valuations because of cash allocation challenges.
  • Companies whose valuations have not changed over the past year have low ROE and ROA, yet have high policy shareholdings. They have not taken steps to improve return on capital.
  • As for whether many companies without high foreign ownership can raise their return on capital and valuations, strong will of management to achieve their goals is necessary.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Hong Kong Property: In Need Of A Good Story and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong Property: In Need Of A Good Story
  • Ohayo Japan | Lower Open After US Holiday
  • #21Business Buzz: ABD $180 Mn IPO, State Owned Banks Sell Bonds, K29 Secures $120 Mn Loan


Hong Kong Property: In Need Of A Good Story

By David Blennerhassett

  • When property advisors (JLL, Knight Frank, CBRE etc) debate the bottom of Hong Kong’s office/retail market, such commentary is often infused with cautious optimism. 
  • And for good reason, as vacancies increase, and rents soften.
  • Recent press articles and anecdotal evidence suggests market uncertainty lingers, prompting  landlords to (further) assess their stance on rents.

Ohayo Japan | Lower Open After US Holiday

By Mark Chadwick

  • US Stock market closed for holiday; Nikkei Futures close at a 0.5% discount to cash suggesting a lower open.
  • Approximately 900 listed companies, or 40%, plan to raise dividends in the fiscal year ending March 2025, totaling an 8% increase to about ¥18 trillion.
  • Toyota Chairman Akio Toyoda saw a drop in shareholder support, falling to 72% from 85% last year

#21Business Buzz: ABD $180 Mn IPO, State Owned Banks Sell Bonds, K29 Secures $120 Mn Loan

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Indian Whiskey Maker Allied Blenders & Distillers Sets Terms for $180 Million IPO
  • Indian State-Owned Banks Sell Bonds as Foreign Demand Surges Ahead of Index Inclusion
  • K92 Mining Expands Loan and Offtake Agreement with Trafigura to Advance Kainantu Operations

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