Category

Daily Briefs

Daily Brief India: NIFTY Index, SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • EQD / NSE Vol Update / IVs Subdued in Spite of Weakening Equities. Skew Looks Overly Compressed.
  • Kerala Smallholders Turn The Heat On Tire Makers; To Cut Supply


EQD / NSE Vol Update / IVs Subdued in Spite of Weakening Equities. Skew Looks Overly Compressed.

By Sankalp Singh

  • IVs steady in spite of significant drop in Indices. Nifty50 Monthly IVs flat at 12.7% & BankNifty Monthly IVs mildly higher to 14.9%. 
  • Paring back of Skew-harvesting recommended. RR levels look overly compressed against backdrop of index weakness
  • Multiple market holidays pushed short-dated IVs lower. Vol term structure moved deeper into Contango,  Weekly vs. Monthly vol-differential now at -1.9 vols.

Kerala Smallholders Turn The Heat On Tire Makers; To Cut Supply

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Consortium appeals to farmers not to sell below INR 200/kg
  • Supply to market expected to fall by 30% in coming days
  • Compound rubber imports go up by 47.5% YoY until Sept

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Daily Brief Japan: Fuji Soft Inc, Seven & I Holdings, Kansai Electric Power, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Fuji Soft (9749): KKR To Launch at ¥9,451, Fuji Soft REJECTS Bain’s Bid – Governance in Shambles
  • 7&I (3382) – What If…  A Modest Proposal
  • ECM Weekly (18th Nov 2024) – SF Holdings, MNC, Swiggy, Sagility, Niva, GMM, Zinka, Kansai, Go Digit
  • Management Mindset of Believing that Company Growth Is Not the Main Objective Is Hindering Growth


Fuji Soft (9749): KKR To Launch at ¥9,451, Fuji Soft REJECTS Bain’s Bid – Governance in Shambles

By Travis Lundy

  • On Friday 15 November, KKR announced it would launch KKR Tender2 to buy the rest of FujiSoft not purchased in KKR Tender1. Their new price is ¥1 higher than Bain’s.
  • Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) announced (J) it supported the KKR2 Tender and rejected the Bain TOB Proposal. KKR1 shareholders are “made whole” at ¥9,451/share. Minimum is 53.22%.
  • The document, however, is a Governance Disaster – an absolute shambles, effectively gaslighting investors at every turn. And now investors can see it was problematic from the start.

7&I (3382) – What If…  A Modest Proposal

By Travis Lundy

  • A lot of the talk around the news that Ito family scion Ito Junro had proposed to Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) an MBO was about thwarting Alimentation Couche-Tard.
  • Several mentioned that this bid – seemingly uncompetitive at the moment – would make ACT back down. I discussed the bid and its repercussions here
  • Here I suggest an alternate solution which might get everyone what they want.

ECM Weekly (18th Nov 2024) – SF Holdings, MNC, Swiggy, Sagility, Niva, GMM, Zinka, Kansai, Go Digit

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
  • On the IPOs front, the usual year end deal flow appears to be picking up with US elections now out of the way.
  • On the placements front, Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP) launched a large primary offering, while Varun Beverages (VBL IN) did the same in India.

Management Mindset of Believing that Company Growth Is Not the Main Objective Is Hindering Growth

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Listing criteria for TSE Growth Market will be raised to over 4 billion yen in market capitalization after 10 years of listing, but the details are left for further discussion.
  • It is necessary to provide opportunities for founders to exit and recover their capital without relying on an IPO, for example by creating a market for unlisted shares.
  • Switching to a policy of using cash for shareholder returns because of the inability to comply with TSE Growth Market listing maintenance standards is not a fundamental solution.

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Most Read: Ping An Healthcare and Technology, Fuji Soft Inc, Samsung Electronics, Samsung Electronics Pref Shares, Evergreen Marine Corp, Seven & I Holdings, Yankuang Energy Group, S.F. Holding, Xingda International and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • 2025 High Conviction: PA Gooddoctor (1833 HK) – The Arb Is To Take The Stock
  • Fuji Soft (9749): KKR To Launch at ¥9,451, Fuji Soft REJECTS Bain’s Bid – Governance in Shambles
  • Samsung Electronics: A Massive 10 Trillion Won Share Buyback Program
  • Sammy’s Massive Buyback: Play the Pref Compression, Not Outright Long
  • Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 6 Adds, 5 Deletes, Capping, US$3.5bn Trade
  • Fuji Soft (9749 JP): KKR Bumps to JPY9,451 as Bain Left High and Dry
  • 7&I (3382) – What If…  A Modest Proposal
  • FXI Rebalance Preview: One Change in December as Shorts Spike
  • SF Holding H Share Listing: AH Discount Views
  • Xingda (1899 HK): A Surprising Result as Offer Declared Unconditional


2025 High Conviction: PA Gooddoctor (1833 HK) – The Arb Is To Take The Stock

By David Blennerhassett


Fuji Soft (9749): KKR To Launch at ¥9,451, Fuji Soft REJECTS Bain’s Bid – Governance in Shambles

By Travis Lundy

  • On Friday 15 November, KKR announced it would launch KKR Tender2 to buy the rest of FujiSoft not purchased in KKR Tender1. Their new price is ¥1 higher than Bain’s.
  • Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) announced (J) it supported the KKR2 Tender and rejected the Bain TOB Proposal. KKR1 shareholders are “made whole” at ¥9,451/share. Minimum is 53.22%.
  • The document, however, is a Governance Disaster – an absolute shambles, effectively gaslighting investors at every turn. And now investors can see it was problematic from the start.

Samsung Electronics: A Massive 10 Trillion Won Share Buyback Program

By Douglas Kim

  • Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) announced a massive share buyback program worth 10 trillion won which represents 3.1% of its market cap.
  • Of this total amount, about 3 trillion won will be purchased and cancelled in the next three months. This will include 50,144,628 common shares and 6,912,036 preferred shares.
  • We believe that this massive share buyback and cancellation is likely to boost Samsung Electronics’ share price resulting in a strong outperformance relative to KOSPI in the next 6-12 months. 

Sammy’s Massive Buyback: Play the Pref Compression, Not Outright Long

By Sanghyun Park

  • The stock’s still below 1x PBR. But with Samsung’s tech gaps and slowdowns, going all-in on an outright long here off the back of this buyback feels way too early
  • The key is whether pref discounts tighten like 2015, but with a more balanced buyback this time and narrowing pref discounts, making a pref rally harder to predict short-term.
  • The goal’s the same as 2015—boosting the family’s control. If the remaining buyback leans pref-heavy, it could further tighten pref discounts, creating a potential opportunity to play the compression.

Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 6 Adds, 5 Deletes, Capping, US$3.5bn Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • Using data from the close on 15 November, there could be 6 adds and 5 deletes for the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December.
  • There will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to a one-way turnover of 16.9% and a one-way trade of TWD 57.5bn (US$1.77bn).
  • Short interest is at the highs in most forecast deletes, while the trend is mixed among the potential inclusions.

Fuji Soft (9749 JP): KKR Bumps to JPY9,451 as Bain Left High and Dry

By Arun George

  • KKR & Co (KKR US) has secured the Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) Board’s unanimous support by bumping its second tender offer to JPY9,451, a JPY1 premium to Bain’s JPY9,450 offer. 
  • The Board is claiming a “fiduciary duty” win as it has secured a higher offer from KKR but paradoxically signalling that it will not negotiate a bump from Bain.  
  • Bain will likely walk rather than try to win the Board’s support by revising terms. At the last close, the gross spread to KKR’s offer is 3.7%.

7&I (3382) – What If…  A Modest Proposal

By Travis Lundy

  • A lot of the talk around the news that Ito family scion Ito Junro had proposed to Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) an MBO was about thwarting Alimentation Couche-Tard.
  • Several mentioned that this bid – seemingly uncompetitive at the moment – would make ACT back down. I discussed the bid and its repercussions here
  • Here I suggest an alternate solution which might get everyone what they want.

FXI Rebalance Preview: One Change in December as Shorts Spike

By Brian Freitas


SF Holding H Share Listing: AH Discount Views

By Arun George

  • S.F. Holding (002352 CH), the largest Asian integrated logistics service provider, is premarketing an H Share listing to raise US$1.0-1.5 billion, according to press reports.
  • In SF Holding H Share Listing: Updates Point to Improving Fundamentals, we noted that SF is in good health, with a return to growth, rising margins, and strong cash generation.
  • In this note, we examine the likely discount SF Holding will offer its H Shares compared to the A Shares.

Xingda (1899 HK): A Surprising Result as Offer Declared Unconditional

By Arun George

  • On its first closing date on 15 November, Xingda International (1899 HK) declared the Chairman’s offer unconditional as the offeror and concert parties represented 60.76% of outstanding shares. 
  • The result was surprising. The IFA opined that the offer was not fair or reasonable, and the independent Board recommended that the shareholder not accept it. 
  • The CCASS movements suggest that the offer was declared unconditional mainly because friends and family supported the Chairman’s offer. The gross/annualised spread is 1.6%/92.6%.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Evergreen Marine Corp, S.F. Holding, Malaysia Airports Holdings, Wan Hai Lines, CiDi Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 6 Adds, 5 Deletes, Capping, US$3.5bn Trade
  • SF Holding H Share Listing: AH Discount Views
  • Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK): A Firm Offer (Finally)
  • Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Shippers Sailing Back Into Indices
  • CiDi IPO Preview: Uniquely Positioned For Growth In Autonomous Mining and Logistics Trucks


Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 6 Adds, 5 Deletes, Capping, US$3.5bn Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • Using data from the close on 15 November, there could be 6 adds and 5 deletes for the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December.
  • There will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to a one-way turnover of 16.9% and a one-way trade of TWD 57.5bn (US$1.77bn).
  • Short interest is at the highs in most forecast deletes, while the trend is mixed among the potential inclusions.

SF Holding H Share Listing: AH Discount Views

By Arun George

  • S.F. Holding (002352 CH), the largest Asian integrated logistics service provider, is premarketing an H Share listing to raise US$1.0-1.5 billion, according to press reports.
  • In SF Holding H Share Listing: Updates Point to Improving Fundamentals, we noted that SF is in good health, with a return to growth, rising margins, and strong cash generation.
  • In this note, we examine the likely discount SF Holding will offer its H Shares compared to the A Shares.

Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK): A Firm Offer (Finally)

By David Blennerhassett

  • Talk about cutting it fine. On the pre-conditional long stop date, the Gateway Development Alliance has now made a firm Offer for Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK) at RM11/share. 
  • The consortium, led by Khazanah Nasional’s subsidiary UEM Group Bhd and EPF, together with the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and Global Infrastructure Partners, collectively hold 41.22%. 
  • This is a Tender Offer with a 90% acceptance threshold. “The Joint Offerors reserve the right to revise the level of the Acceptance Condition to a lower level“.

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Shippers Sailing Back Into Indices

By Brian Freitas

  • Wan Hai Lines (2615 TT) and Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT) are currently in contention to be added to the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF in December.
  • Passive trackers will need to trade around 0.5x ADV in the inclusions while impact on the forecast deletes is between 0.36-2.2x ADV.
  • Short interest has decreased and is near the lows for the forecast adds while short interest has been increasing in the forecast deletions.

CiDi IPO Preview: Uniquely Positioned For Growth In Autonomous Mining and Logistics Trucks

By Andrei Zakharov

  • CiDi, a China’s leading provider of AD technology for commercial vehicles, will tap equity markets in Hong Kong for growth capital.
  • The autonomous driving company with focus on autonomous mining and logistics trucks, V2X technologies, and high-performance perception solutions, filed its IPO prospectus.
  • I like CiDi’s leadership position in autonomous mining industry, hyper-growth trajectory and differentiated full-stack autonomous mining solution.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Kerala Smallholders Turn The Heat On Tire Makers; To Cut Supply


Kerala Smallholders Turn The Heat On Tire Makers; To Cut Supply

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Consortium appeals to farmers not to sell below INR 200/kg
  • Supply to market expected to fall by 30% in coming days
  • Compound rubber imports go up by 47.5% YoY until Sept

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Daily Brief Consumer: Seven & I Holdings, Xingda International, 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings, Ping An Healthcare and Technology, Oriental Watch, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • 7&I (3382) – What If…  A Modest Proposal
  • Xingda (1899 HK): A Surprising Result as Offer Declared Unconditional
  • KLCI Index Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change; One at the Cusp
  • Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) – Privatization Ahead?
  • Xingda (1899 HK): Go Figure As Offer Turns Unconditional
  • Oriental Watch (398 HK)  H1 FY25 and Mgmt Meeting: Resilient 14% Yield Despite Tough Environment
  • Management Mindset of Believing that Company Growth Is Not the Main Objective Is Hindering Growth


7&I (3382) – What If…  A Modest Proposal

By Travis Lundy

  • A lot of the talk around the news that Ito family scion Ito Junro had proposed to Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) an MBO was about thwarting Alimentation Couche-Tard.
  • Several mentioned that this bid – seemingly uncompetitive at the moment – would make ACT back down. I discussed the bid and its repercussions here
  • Here I suggest an alternate solution which might get everyone what they want.

Xingda (1899 HK): A Surprising Result as Offer Declared Unconditional

By Arun George

  • On its first closing date on 15 November, Xingda International (1899 HK) declared the Chairman’s offer unconditional as the offeror and concert parties represented 60.76% of outstanding shares. 
  • The result was surprising. The IFA opined that the offer was not fair or reasonable, and the independent Board recommended that the shareholder not accept it. 
  • The CCASS movements suggest that the offer was declared unconditional mainly because friends and family supported the Chairman’s offer. The gross/annualised spread is 1.6%/92.6%.

KLCI Index Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change; One at the Cusp

By Brian Freitas


Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) – Privatization Ahead?

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • PAGD’s business model is problematic, leading to continuous shrinking revenue scale. As PAGD will entirely lose competitiveness in the future, the management wants to find a suitable way to “exit”.
  • Privatizing PAGD at low price and integrating it into the Ping An Group’s system is a good choice. In other words, Ping An hopes other shareholders to choose cash dividends.
  • Due to high tax, Hong Kong Stock Connect investors would prefer to sell in advance. Arbitrageurs can wait until stock price drops then make decisions based on new conversion price.

Xingda (1899 HK): Go Figure As Offer Turns Unconditional

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 24 September, tyre component manufacturer Xingda International (1899 HK) announced a zero-premium $1.30/share cash Offer from Liu Jinlan, chairman and executive director.
  • Liu and concert parties held 37.03%, and the Offer was conditional on a 50% acceptance hurdle. The IFA concluded the Offer was not fair.
  • Surprisingly, 23.73% of shares out have tendered, and the Offer is now unconditional in all respects. The Offer will remain open to acceptances until the 29th November.

Oriental Watch (398 HK)  H1 FY25 and Mgmt Meeting: Resilient 14% Yield Despite Tough Environment

By Sameer Taneja

  • Oriental Watch reported H1 FY25 revenues/profits down 2.6%/-13.7 % YoY despite the tough retail sales environment, especially in HK (25% of revenues).
  • The company declared a 24.6 HKD cents dividend, equivalent to a 14% dividend yield annualized on the current price.
  • With 62% of the market capitalization in cash, a 7x PE, and a 14% dividend yield (assuming a consistent 100% payout), this is a name to look at.

Management Mindset of Believing that Company Growth Is Not the Main Objective Is Hindering Growth

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Listing criteria for TSE Growth Market will be raised to over 4 billion yen in market capitalization after 10 years of listing, but the details are left for further discussion.
  • It is necessary to provide opportunities for founders to exit and recover their capital without relying on an IPO, for example by creating a market for unlisted shares.
  • Switching to a policy of using cash for shareholder returns because of the inability to comply with TSE Growth Market listing maintenance standards is not a fundamental solution.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Fuji Soft Inc, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Asustek Computer, Cuscal , Pony AI and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Fuji Soft (9749): KKR To Launch at ¥9,451, Fuji Soft REJECTS Bain’s Bid – Governance in Shambles
  • TSMC Has Increased Its Dividend. Again. It Will Keep Increasing.
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Weakness Could Open TSMC Long Level; ASE Short Interest Keeps Surging
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Taiwan Firms to Surge U.S. Investment Due to Trump?; AI PCs & Memory Expansion
  • Tech News This Week: TSMC, Samsung, Amazon / Nvidia, Super Micro, Smartphone ASP Increasing, AI PC
  • PC Monitor: Asustek & Lenovo Signal Strong PC Growth, AI PC Expansion in Process
  • Cuscal IPO – Peers Have Traded Up, Decent Margin of Safety from Here
  • Pony AI IPO – Autonomous Valuation


Fuji Soft (9749): KKR To Launch at ¥9,451, Fuji Soft REJECTS Bain’s Bid – Governance in Shambles

By Travis Lundy

  • On Friday 15 November, KKR announced it would launch KKR Tender2 to buy the rest of FujiSoft not purchased in KKR Tender1. Their new price is ¥1 higher than Bain’s.
  • Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) announced (J) it supported the KKR2 Tender and rejected the Bain TOB Proposal. KKR1 shareholders are “made whole” at ¥9,451/share. Minimum is 53.22%.
  • The document, however, is a Governance Disaster – an absolute shambles, effectively gaslighting investors at every turn. And now investors can see it was problematic from the start.

TSMC Has Increased Its Dividend. Again. It Will Keep Increasing.

By Nicolas Baratte

  • TSMC cash dividend has increased by 65% in 2 years or NT$2.75 in 4Q22 to NT$4.50 in 3Q24. It will keep increasing.
  • TSMC is spinning cash. 2nm-16A could increase Capex intensity but still we estimate that quarterly dividend can increase to NT$5.50 in 2025 and NT$6.00 in 2026.
  • Consensus forecasts similar EPS growth for TSMC and ASML: 30% in 2025, 20% in 2026. TSMC is 50% cheaper than ASML. 2025 PEx: TSMC 18x and ASML 28x.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Weakness Could Open TSMC Long Level; ASE Short Interest Keeps Surging

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +16.7% Premium; Further Market Weakness Could Soon Open Up Good Long Level
  • UMC: -2.1% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the ADR Spread
  • ASE: -0.1% Discount; Premium Completely Broken Down & Local Short Interest Continues to Surge

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Taiwan Firms to Surge U.S. Investment Due to Trump?; AI PCs & Memory Expansion

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Hon Hai, Pegatron, and Quanta Gear Up for Potential U.S. Investment Surge Amid Trump Policy Speculation
  • PC Monitor: Asustek & Lenovo Signal Strong PC Growth, AI PC Expansion in Process
  • Semiconductor Memory Q324 Revenue Close To Historic Highs Even As Decoupling Intensifies 

Tech News This Week: TSMC, Samsung, Amazon / Nvidia, Super Micro, Smartphone ASP Increasing, AI PC

By Nicolas Baratte

  • TSMC: more restrictions on export to China. TSMC can’t make 2nm in US before 2028-29. Lawsuit in Arizona.
  • Korea: special chips act to give chipmakers subsidies and an exemption from a national cap on working hours. Korean engineers only work 52 hours / week. That’s a problem.
  • Amazon more in-house AI chips. Super Micro trying to avoid delisting. Smartphone ASP keep increasing because chip prices are increasing (ie Mediatek, Qualcomm). AI PC reaching 20% in 3Q214. 

PC Monitor: Asustek & Lenovo Signal Strong PC Growth, AI PC Expansion in Process

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Asustek Guides for 20%+ YoY PC Revenue Growth in 4Q24E;  Lenovo Delivers 17% YoY PC Revenue Growth in CY3Q24
  • AI PCs: A Multi-Year Upgrade Cycle with Rising Average Selling Prices; AI PCs 80% of the PC Market by 2027E
  • Maintain Structural Long View for AI PC Up-Cycle; Asustek, Acer, & Lenovo Well-Positioned Through 2025E

Cuscal IPO – Peers Have Traded Up, Decent Margin of Safety from Here

By Clarence Chu

  • Cuscal (1229Z AU) is looking to raise A$337m (US$218m) in its Australia IPO.
  • Cuscal is an authorized deposit-taking institution (ADI) in Australia that primarily provides financial infrastructure and payment services in Australia.
  • In this note, we look at the updates since our last look-through and share our thoughts on valuation.

Pony AI IPO – Autonomous Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

  • Pony AI (PONY US), an autonomous mobility solutions provider, is looking to raise up to US$195m in its US IPO.
  • As per Frost & Sullivan, Pony AI was among the first companies in China to obtain licenses to operate fully driverless robotaxis in all four Tier-1 cities in China.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the IPO valuations.

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Daily Brief Financials: NIFTY Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • EQD / NSE Vol Update / IVs Subdued in Spite of Weakening Equities. Skew Looks Overly Compressed.


EQD / NSE Vol Update / IVs Subdued in Spite of Weakening Equities. Skew Looks Overly Compressed.

By Sankalp Singh

  • IVs steady in spite of significant drop in Indices. Nifty50 Monthly IVs flat at 12.7% & BankNifty Monthly IVs mildly higher to 14.9%. 
  • Paring back of Skew-harvesting recommended. RR levels look overly compressed against backdrop of index weakness
  • Multiple market holidays pushed short-dated IVs lower. Vol term structure moved deeper into Contango,  Weekly vs. Monthly vol-differential now at -1.9 vols.

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Daily Brief Utilities: Kansai Electric Power, Greenvolt-Energias Renovaveis and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • ECM Weekly (18th Nov 2024) – SF Holdings, MNC, Swiggy, Sagility, Niva, GMM, Zinka, Kansai, Go Digit
  • KKR/Greenvolt: Squeeze-Out Coming Next


ECM Weekly (18th Nov 2024) – SF Holdings, MNC, Swiggy, Sagility, Niva, GMM, Zinka, Kansai, Go Digit

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
  • On the IPOs front, the usual year end deal flow appears to be picking up with US elections now out of the way.
  • On the placements front, Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP) launched a large primary offering, while Varun Beverages (VBL IN) did the same in India.

KKR/Greenvolt: Squeeze-Out Coming Next

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Core shareholders holding 60.86% accepted KKR’s €8.30/share offer, triggering a mandatory tender for minorities. Greenvolt’s revised offer price (€8.3107/share) represented a 95.5% IPO premium, but faced critiques for modest value. 
  • By October 25, KKR held 97.64% of Greenvolt’s share capital, surpassing the 90% threshold for a squeeze-out and delisting.
  • The delisting is expected by late 2024 or early 2025, following squeeze-out completion. Minority shareholders will be compelled to sell, receiving €8.3107/share. Gross spread is 0.8%. Long.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Evergreen Marine Corp, S.F. Holding, Malaysia Airports Holdings, Wan Hai Lines, CiDi Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 6 Adds, 5 Deletes, Capping, US$3.5bn Trade
  • SF Holding H Share Listing: AH Discount Views
  • Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK): A Firm Offer (Finally)
  • Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Shippers Sailing Back Into Indices
  • CiDi IPO Preview: Uniquely Positioned For Growth In Autonomous Mining and Logistics Trucks


Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 6 Adds, 5 Deletes, Capping, US$3.5bn Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • Using data from the close on 15 November, there could be 6 adds and 5 deletes for the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December.
  • There will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to a one-way turnover of 16.9% and a one-way trade of TWD 57.5bn (US$1.77bn).
  • Short interest is at the highs in most forecast deletes, while the trend is mixed among the potential inclusions.

SF Holding H Share Listing: AH Discount Views

By Arun George

  • S.F. Holding (002352 CH), the largest Asian integrated logistics service provider, is premarketing an H Share listing to raise US$1.0-1.5 billion, according to press reports.
  • In SF Holding H Share Listing: Updates Point to Improving Fundamentals, we noted that SF is in good health, with a return to growth, rising margins, and strong cash generation.
  • In this note, we examine the likely discount SF Holding will offer its H Shares compared to the A Shares.

Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK): A Firm Offer (Finally)

By David Blennerhassett

  • Talk about cutting it fine. On the pre-conditional long stop date, the Gateway Development Alliance has now made a firm Offer for Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK) at RM11/share. 
  • The consortium, led by Khazanah Nasional’s subsidiary UEM Group Bhd and EPF, together with the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and Global Infrastructure Partners, collectively hold 41.22%. 
  • This is a Tender Offer with a 90% acceptance threshold. “The Joint Offerors reserve the right to revise the level of the Acceptance Condition to a lower level“.

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Shippers Sailing Back Into Indices

By Brian Freitas

  • Wan Hai Lines (2615 TT) and Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT) are currently in contention to be added to the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF in December.
  • Passive trackers will need to trade around 0.5x ADV in the inclusions while impact on the forecast deletes is between 0.36-2.2x ADV.
  • Short interest has decreased and is near the lows for the forecast adds while short interest has been increasing in the forecast deletions.

CiDi IPO Preview: Uniquely Positioned For Growth In Autonomous Mining and Logistics Trucks

By Andrei Zakharov

  • CiDi, a China’s leading provider of AD technology for commercial vehicles, will tap equity markets in Hong Kong for growth capital.
  • The autonomous driving company with focus on autonomous mining and logistics trucks, V2X technologies, and high-performance perception solutions, filed its IPO prospectus.
  • I like CiDi’s leadership position in autonomous mining industry, hyper-growth trajectory and differentiated full-stack autonomous mining solution.

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