Daily Briefs

The MMG (1208 HK) rights, designed to raise US$1.15bn to pay off loans to the parent for the purchase of a large copper asset, start trading 24 June 2024.
There is some risk up for grabs, and it is likely to trade according to standard Hong Kong Rights Trading Dynamics. Shorts are down somewhat, but covering should be expected.
There is path-dependency to the Rights Trading, and while they trade for 7 trading days through Tuesday next, one should expect the volume to trade this week.

Swire Properties (1972 HK): Potential Passive Selling & Trade Ideas

By Brian Freitas

The steady selloff in Swire Properties (1972 HK) could result in the stock being deleted from global passive portfolios in the next couple of months.
Swire Properties (1972 HK) trades marginally cheaper than its similar sized peers on forward PE and price to book value.
Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) owns 82% of Swire Properties (1972 HK) and a big drop in the stock price could see them step in.

Merger Arb Mondays (24 Jun) – Malaysia Airports, GA Pack, Infocom, Mimasu, Tatsuta, Capitol, MMA

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK), Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US), Asia Cement China (743 HK), A8 New Media (800 HK), Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK).
Lowest spreads: Fancl Corp (4921 JP), Tatsuta Electric Wire & Cable (5809 JP), Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP), Nagatanien Holdings (2899 JP), Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP).

DMA | JSE June ’24 Rebalance: Estimated Flows (Buys: Banks, Sells: NPN, PRX)

By Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

In this note we show flow estimates based on passive AUM tracking and hedging the Capped Top 40 SWIX (DCAP), Top 40 SWIX (DTOP & TOPI) and Capped ALSI SWIX.
Relative to the March rebalance, we expect turnover in the closing auction to be much lower.
Turnover for the day was R59bn, R44bn traded in the closing auction (harmonisation implemented).

EQD / NSE Vol Update / IVs Stabilize After Falling Dramatically over past 2 Weeks

By Sankalp Singh

Implied Volatilities (IVs) stabilized over the week after falling dramatically since the 04-June-2024 India General Election results.
No tactical changes required while IVs are stable & “High & Down” Vol-state is maintained.
Vol Curve continues to be in Contango. Lack of significant event risk should keep term structure locked in its current orientation.

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Jun 24

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC & ASE Premiums Drop Sharply; ChipMOS Extreme Discount and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC & ASE Premiums Drop Sharply; ChipMOS Extreme Discount
Cathay Pacific (293 HK): Multiple Positive Developments
China Healthcare Weekly (Jun23)-Retail Pharmacy’s Dilemma, Logic to Biotech’s Stock Price,YSB’s Risk
China Consumption Weekly (24 Jun 2024): Kuaishou, Bilibili, NetEase, GAC, Honda Motor, Chow Tai Fook
Everest Group (EG) – Sunday, Mar 24, 2024
Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669.HK) – The Company Is Now In Trouble
Aclaris Therapeutics Inc (ACRS) – Sunday, Mar 24, 2024
Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) – Less New Stores with Higher Volumes

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC & ASE Premiums Drop Sharply; ChipMOS Extreme Discount

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC: +16.1% Premium, After Sharp Drop, Will Be Interesting to See If Spread Will Remain Within the Recent ~15-25% Range
ASE: +7.4% Premium; Can Consider Going Long the Spread Given Recent Trading Range
ChipMOS: -2.4% Discount Repesents Extreme Low of End of Range; Can Consider Going Long the Spread

Cathay Pacific (293 HK): Multiple Positive Developments

By Osbert Tang, CFA

With more foreign countries being granted visa-free visits to China, Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK) will benefit from more transfer traffic via Hong Kong.
Recovery is decent with passenger traffic rising 37.5% in 5M24. CX’s capacity already returned to 80% of pre-pandemic in 2Q24, and this will reach 100% in 1Q25.
YTD, CX is still a laggard relative to many global airlines. Its P/B valuation is not stretched at 0.8x, given ROE of 11% over the next 3 years.

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun23)-Retail Pharmacy’s Dilemma, Logic to Biotech’s Stock Price,YSB’s Risk

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Retail pharmacies experienced performance decline in April and May. Due to negative policies, retail pharmacies will experience industry clearance. Therefore, we do not recommend investors to bottom-fish related stocks now.
There is a logic to biotech’s performance from 2023 to present.The clearer the path of sustainable development, the better the stock price performance. They can be divided into three types.
YSB faces big risks and the outlook is not optimistic. If the final valuation of the Company is lower than China Resources Pharmaceutical and Shanghai Pharmaceuticals, we wouldn’t be too surprised.

China Consumption Weekly (24 Jun 2024): Kuaishou, Bilibili, NetEase, GAC, Honda Motor, Chow Tai Fook

By Ming Lu

Kuaishou and Bilibili’s GMV surged YoY during “June 18” sales.
World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King, will formally start on June 27.
GAC Honda Automobile Ltd planned to dismiss 1700 employees, about 14% of total.

Everest Group (EG) – Sunday, Mar 24, 2024

By Value Investors Club

Everest Group has sustainable and improving 15-20% ROEs
Stock trades at a valuation of 1.2x book and 6x P/E
Poised for future success with accelerating casualty pricing, stable property-cat rates, and potential for hitting 90 combined ratio target

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669.HK) – The Company Is Now In Trouble

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Acotec’s 2023 performance was unsatisfactory. Core products suffered weak growth. Positive trend of continuing to optimize revenue structure was broken. Sales of latecomers’ competing products would expand rapidly in 2024/2025.
Revenue proportion in overseas markets was still below 5% in 2023. If no highlights in Acotec’s cooperation with Boston Scientific in 2024, this collaboration could be considered a failure.
Due to VBP, margin could further decline. If it’s just the current situation, then Acotec is not as good as Zylox-Tonbridge. So, its valuation should also be lower than Zylox-Tonbridge.

Aclaris Therapeutics Inc (ACRS) – Sunday, Mar 24, 2024

By Value Investors Club

ACRC is a biotech pharma micro-cap company trading below its net cash value
Downsized workforce after a failed phase 2 trial, CEO and CMO left prompting strategic evaluation
Activist investors involved, potential for monetization of stakes to benefit shareholders.

Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) – Less New Stores with Higher Volumes

By Angus Mackintosh

Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) is back on track with its handset business, with stronger volume growth driven by more affordable models from Infinix and Techno brands.
The company’s buildout of its electrical retailer Erablue, a JV with Mobile World, is gaining momentum and should become a significant growth driver along with Grand Lucky supermarket.
Erajaya will slow its store buildout this year as it focuses on productivity ny it still expected to add 200 new stores over in Indonesia. Valuation is attractive.

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Jun 24

Daily Brief Macro: Why the November Election Matters to Gold and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

Why the November Election Matters to Gold
Why the Breadth Divergence May Not Be Bearish
VALE US: Exposure to High-Grade Iron Ore With >8% Dividend Yield
Commodity Analysis – Crude Oil WTI Futures
US Financial Markets Underprice Geopolitical Risks as Equities Flirt With Another Melt-Up
Canadian Economy – June 12, 2024
Greek Economy – May 20, 2024
Comment on Exchange Rate EUR/USD – May 3, 2024

Why the November Election Matters to Gold

By Cam Hui

The latest CBO fiscal update raises the odds of upside inflation surprises in the coming years, which would be bullish for gold.
The intermediate-term outlook for inflation will largely depend on the outcome of the November election.
We project that a Biden win would be bearish for bond prices and mildly bullish for stock prices. A Trump win would be bond and USD bearish and gold bullish.

Why the Breadth Divergence May Not Be Bearish

By Cam Hui

Anxiety has been increasing among the technical analysis community over the blatant instances of narrow market leadership and negative breadth divergence.
The bearish consequences of a negative breadth divergence can take over a year to be realized. Instead, they are warnings of bearish conditions than actionable tactical sell signals.
We interpret current market conditions as highly extended that can pull back at any time, but investors should also recognize that the situation could resolve itself in a benign manner.

VALE US: Exposure to High-Grade Iron Ore With >8% Dividend Yield

By Sameer Taneja

We like Vale (VALE US) for its exposure to high-grade iron ore (95% of EBITDA) and capital return discipline, with a current dividend yield of 8% and 3.5x EV-EBITDA.
The cash flows from the iron ore business could be used to invest in base metals, such as copper, nickel, etc., to enhance the portfolio.
The key risk remains the overhang from the Mariana Dam disaster being settled for ~25.7 billion USD (vs. the current market cap of 50 billion USD).

Commodity Analysis – Crude Oil WTI Futures

According to Graph 1, during the period February 28th , 2024 – May 31st , 2024, a mixed trend was reflected in the prices of crude oil futures amid fluctuations.
During the period under consideration, there was a notable increase in the price of crude oil until April 8th , 2024, whereas thereafter crude oil prices followed a downward trend returning to the levels seen at end of February 2024.
The MA- 10 was recorded to perform higher than MA-20 from the beginning, whereas on April 23rd the MA-20 took over and started trading above the MA 10 until the end of the period under consideration.

US Financial Markets Underprice Geopolitical Risks as Equities Flirt With Another Melt-Up

By Said Desaque

US equities have discounted the arrival of a lower federal funds rate (FFR). Upbeat corporate profit expectations and a lower FFR could easily produce an H2 equity market melt-up.
Financial markets have largely ignored geopolitical risks. Holding assets in Western financial institutions now has counterparty risks. High budget deficits driven by defence spending are bearish for productivity and profitability.
The appetite of private investors to buy longer-dated Treasuries will be tested by the arrival of persistently large budget deficits. Notably, the outlook for foreign participation is less certain.

Canadian Economy – June 12, 2024

In the first quarter of 2024, Canada’s economy managed to grow by 1.6% (QoQ).
This growth is mainly attributed to real private and final consumption expenditures but also to real fixed capital formation as they increased by about 1.2% to 1.6% (QoQ) each.
Net exports slightly fell from 0.17% of GDP in fourth quarter of 2023 to 0.13% in the first quarter of 2024.

Greek Economy – May 20, 2024

The 2024 GDP projections for Greece show a 2.07% growth rate, so that Real GDP would reach €198.512 billion, lower than the previous projections of €199.205 billion.
In 2024, the IMF, OECD, and EU forecast an average growth rate of 2.07% for 2024 and 2.24% for 2025.
The Public Debt is projected to increase from € 356.695 billion to €362.856 billion in 2024 but with a lower Debt-to-GDP ratio than the previous year of 156.3% (161.9% in 2023).

Comment on Exchange Rate EUR/USD – May 3, 2024

During the period under consideration, i.e. April 3rd, 2024 to May 3rd, 2024, the EUR/USD pair posted both downward and upward swings.
In the beginning, it faced a slight increase, while from April 9th until April 18th the pair faced a sharp decrease.
After that, it fluctuated sideways and by the end of the period the pair traded at a higher level but still below the price level of the start of April.

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Jun 24

Most Read: Ryohin Keikaku, Infocom Corp, MMG, Exedy Corp, L’Occitane, Swire Properties, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Malaysia Airports Holdings, LS Electric and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal – Still 1 ADD, 1 DELETE, 1 Dark Horse, But #2-Ranked ADD Is Close
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Infocom, Capitol Health, MMA Offshore, Mimasu, Tatsuta Elect., Great Eastern
MMG (1208 HK) Rights Trading Dynamics
Last Week in Event SPACE: Exedy Corp, EOFlow, L’Occitane, Jardine Cycle & Carriage
MMG (1208 HK): Rights Trade Playbook
Weekly Deals Digest (23 Jun) – L’Occitane, Exedy, Infocom, Mimasu, Tatsuta, MMA Offshore, Webtoon
Swire Properties (1972 HK): Potential Passive Selling & Trade Ideas
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC & ASE Premiums Drop Sharply; ChipMOS Extreme Discount
Merger Arb Mondays (24 Jun) – Malaysia Airports, GA Pack, Infocom, Mimasu, Tatsuta, Capitol, MMA
Sanil Electric IPO Preview

Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal – Still 1 ADD, 1 DELETE, 1 Dark Horse, But #2-Ranked ADD Is Close

The Sep 2024 Nikkei 225 Review base date is six weeks away. One can no extrapolate results quite accurately. It still gives us one ADD, one DELETE, and capping fun.
Recently, Yanai-san sold more Fast Retailing (9983 JP). More active holders own more stock (which may mean less interest to buy later), and only 1% to go to avoid capping.
There should be one DELETE, one ADD. There is a low-probability Dark Horse ADD but I expect Kokusai Electric (6525) to be added in March 2025.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Infocom, Capitol Health, MMA Offshore, Mimasu, Tatsuta Elect., Great Eastern

I tally 48 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Two new deals discussed this week: the Capitol Health (CAJ AU) / Integral Diagnostics (IDX AU) merger; and Infocom Corp (4348 JP)‘s Tender Offer.
Key updates took place on: MMA Offshore (MRM AU), L’Occitane (973 HK), Mimasu Semiconductor Industry (8155 JP), Tatsuta Electric Wire & Cable (5809 JP), and Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP).

MMG (1208 HK) Rights Trading Dynamics

The MMG (1208 HK) rights, designed to raise US$1.15bn to pay off loans to the parent for the purchase of a large copper asset, start trading 24 June 2024.
There is some risk up for grabs, and it is likely to trade according to standard Hong Kong Rights Trading Dynamics. Shorts are down somewhat, but covering should be expected.
There is path-dependency to the Rights Trading, and while they trade for 7 trading days through Tuesday next, one should expect the volume to trade this week.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Exedy Corp, EOFlow, L’Occitane, Jardine Cycle & Carriage

Murakami Group now owns 10.13% of Exedy Corp (7278 JP). Interestingly, NOMURA Aya sold 6.79% off-market to Minami Aoyama Fudosan. Has the Murakami Group made a “mistake” in its planning?
A big win for EOFlow (294090 KS) as the U.S. Federal Appeals Court issued its decision on overturning Insulet Corp (PODD US)‘s provisional injunction
L’Occitane (973 HK) finally announces the share alternative. And Pleasant Lake (3.25% of shares out) will accept the share offer (either cash or scrip). This is a done deal

MMG (1208 HK): Rights Trade Playbook

On 4 June, MMG (1208 HK) announced plans to raise HK$9.1bn (US$1.2bn) through 2 rights shares for every five existing shares rights offering, with a rights price of HK$2.62.
Since the rights issue announcement, MMG shares have declined by 16.2% to the undisturbed price and by 8.0% compared to the TERP of HK$3.48 per share.
MMG’s trading pattern has diverged from Link REIT/Yuexiu’s rights trading due to the statement on 18 May that the Peruvian mine is not liable for a 30% withholding tax.

Weekly Deals Digest (23 Jun) – L’Occitane, Exedy, Infocom, Mimasu, Tatsuta, MMA Offshore, Webtoon

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: MMG (1208 HK) US$1.2 billion rights issue. Shift Up (462870 KS) and Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US) IPOs.
Event-Driven developments: L’Occitane (973 HK), Exedy Corp (7278 JP), Infocom Corp (4348 JP), Mimasu Semiconductor Industry (8155 JP), Tatsuta Electric Wire & Cable (5809 JP), Mma Offshore (MRM AU).

Swire Properties (1972 HK): Potential Passive Selling & Trade Ideas

By Brian Freitas

The steady selloff in Swire Properties (1972 HK) could result in the stock being deleted from global passive portfolios in the next couple of months.
Swire Properties (1972 HK) trades marginally cheaper than its similar sized peers on forward PE and price to book value.
Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) owns 82% of Swire Properties (1972 HK) and a big drop in the stock price could see them step in.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC & ASE Premiums Drop Sharply; ChipMOS Extreme Discount

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC: +16.1% Premium, After Sharp Drop, Will Be Interesting to See If Spread Will Remain Within the Recent ~15-25% Range
ASE: +7.4% Premium; Can Consider Going Long the Spread Given Recent Trading Range
ChipMOS: -2.4% Discount Repesents Extreme Low of End of Range; Can Consider Going Long the Spread

Merger Arb Mondays (24 Jun) – Malaysia Airports, GA Pack, Infocom, Mimasu, Tatsuta, Capitol, MMA

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK), Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US), Asia Cement China (743 HK), A8 New Media (800 HK), Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK).
Lowest spreads: Fancl Corp (4921 JP), Tatsuta Electric Wire & Cable (5809 JP), Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP), Nagatanien Holdings (2899 JP), Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP).

Sanil Electric IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

Sanil Electric is getting ready to complete its IPO in late July in KOSPI. The IPO price range is from 24,000 won to 30,000 won per share.
The company is planning is raise between 182.4 billion won and 228 billion won in this IPO. The book building for the institutional investors lasts from 9 to 15 July.
Sanil Electric is best known for making special transformers used for special purposes in environments with severe weather changes, such as offshore wind power, solar power, and offshore plants.

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Jun 23

Daily Brief South Korea: Webtoon Entertainment and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

Webtoon Entertainment IPO: Favorable Risk/Reward IPO Valuation and Limited Downside Potential

Webtoon Entertainment IPO: Favorable Risk/Reward IPO Valuation and Limited Downside Potential

By Andrei Zakharov

Webtoon Entertainment, a South Korean global storytelling platform and the world’s largest digital comics platform, filed for an IPO in the United States.
The company offers 15M shares at a price range between $18.00 and $21.00, implying a market cap of roughly $2.5B at the midpoint based on 129.3M outstanding shares.
I have a positive view of the upcoming Webtoon Entertainment IPO and I think risk/reward is more favorable for IPO investors given the company’s improving profitability and strong cash position.

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Jun 23

Daily Brief United States: Apple and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Will Apple Intelligence Drive IPhone Maker past USD 4 Trillion in Market Cap?

Will Apple Intelligence Drive IPhone Maker past USD 4 Trillion in Market Cap?

By Uttkarsh Kohli

Never a pioneer, instead a perfectionist in delivering mind bending experience. That’s what Apple has stood for traditionally. Can it repeat the act in the Gen AI era?
Siri to have advanced language comprehension and Writing Tools to deliver useful features to drive convenience and productivity.
Private Cloud Compute ensures user data remains encrypted and secure. Reflects Apple’s commitment to privacy amidst growing concerns surrounding data misuse.

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Jun 23

Daily Brief Japan: Infocom Corp, Exedy Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Infocom, Capitol Health, MMA Offshore, Mimasu, Tatsuta Elect., Great Eastern
Last Week in Event SPACE: Exedy Corp, EOFlow, L’Occitane, Jardine Cycle & Carriage

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Infocom, Capitol Health, MMA Offshore, Mimasu, Tatsuta Elect., Great Eastern

I tally 48 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Two new deals discussed this week: the Capitol Health (CAJ AU) / Integral Diagnostics (IDX AU) merger; and Infocom Corp (4348 JP)‘s Tender Offer.
Key updates took place on: MMA Offshore (MRM AU), L’Occitane (973 HK), Mimasu Semiconductor Industry (8155 JP), Tatsuta Electric Wire & Cable (5809 JP), and Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP).

Last Week in Event SPACE: Exedy Corp, EOFlow, L’Occitane, Jardine Cycle & Carriage

Murakami Group now owns 10.13% of Exedy Corp (7278 JP). Interestingly, NOMURA Aya sold 6.79% off-market to Minami Aoyama Fudosan. Has the Murakami Group made a “mistake” in its planning?
A big win for EOFlow (294090 KS) as the U.S. Federal Appeals Court issued its decision on overturning Insulet Corp (PODD US)‘s provisional injunction
L’Occitane (973 HK) finally announces the share alternative. And Pleasant Lake (3.25% of shares out) will accept the share offer (either cash or scrip). This is a done deal

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Jun 23

Daily Brief China: L’Occitane, Luxshare Precision Industry, Trip.com and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Weekly Deals Digest (23 Jun) – L’Occitane, Exedy, Infocom, Mimasu, Tatsuta, MMA Offshore, Webtoon
Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 21 June 2024): BIG Consumer Name Selling Again
Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Recovery Expands | Domestic Solid Too | (June 2024)

Weekly Deals Digest (23 Jun) – L’Occitane, Exedy, Infocom, Mimasu, Tatsuta, MMA Offshore, Webtoon

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: MMG (1208 HK) US$1.2 billion rights issue. Shift Up (462870 KS) and Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US) IPOs.
Event-Driven developments: L’Occitane (973 HK), Exedy Corp (7278 JP), Infocom Corp (4348 JP), Mimasu Semiconductor Industry (8155 JP), Tatsuta Electric Wire & Cable (5809 JP), Mma Offshore (MRM AU).

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 21 June 2024): BIG Consumer Name Selling Again