Category

Daily Briefs

Daily Brief United States: Crude Oil, Everest Re, Aclaris Therapeutics, EURO/US DOLLAR and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Commodity Analysis – Crude Oil WTI Futures
  • Everest Group (EG) – Sunday, Mar 24, 2024
  • Aclaris Therapeutics Inc (ACRS) – Sunday, Mar 24, 2024
  • Comment on Exchange Rate EUR/USD – May 3, 2024


Commodity Analysis – Crude Oil WTI Futures

By VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

  • According to Graph 1, during the period February 28th , 2024 – May 31st , 2024, a mixed trend was reflected in the prices of crude oil futures amid fluctuations.
  • During the period under consideration, there was a notable increase in the price of crude oil until April 8th , 2024, whereas thereafter crude oil prices followed a downward trend returning to the levels seen at end of February 2024.
  • The MA- 10 was recorded to perform higher than MA-20 from the beginning, whereas on April 23rd the MA-20 took over and started trading above the MA 10 until the end of the period under consideration.

Everest Group (EG) – Sunday, Mar 24, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Everest Group has sustainable and improving 15-20% ROEs
  • Stock trades at a valuation of 1.2x book and 6x P/E
  • Poised for future success with accelerating casualty pricing, stable property-cat rates, and potential for hitting 90 combined ratio target

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Aclaris Therapeutics Inc (ACRS) – Sunday, Mar 24, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • ACRC is a biotech pharma micro-cap company trading below its net cash value
  • Downsized workforce after a failed phase 2 trial, CEO and CMO left prompting strategic evaluation
  • Activist investors involved, potential for monetization of stakes to benefit shareholders.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Comment on Exchange Rate EUR/USD – May 3, 2024

By VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

  • During the period under consideration, i.e. April 3rd, 2024 to May 3rd, 2024, the EUR/USD pair posted both downward and upward swings.
  • In the beginning, it faced a slight increase, while from April 9th until April 18th the pair faced a sharp decrease.
  • After that, it fluctuated sideways and by the end of the period the pair traded at a higher level but still below the price level of the start of April. 

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Daily Brief Indonesia: Erajaya Swasembada and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) – Less New Stores with Higher Volumes


Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) – Less New Stores with Higher Volumes

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) is back on track with its handset business, with stronger volume growth driven by more affordable models from Infinix and Techno brands.
  • The company’s buildout of its electrical retailer Erablue, a JV with Mobile World, is gaining momentum and should become a significant growth driver along with Grand Lucky supermarket.
  • Erajaya will slow its store buildout this year as it focuses on productivity ny it still expected to add 200 new stores over in Indonesia. Valuation is attractive.

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Daily Brief China: MMG, Swire Properties, Cathay Pacific Airways, YSB, Guangzhou Automobile Group, Acotec Scientific Holdings, Greentown China and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • MMG (1208 HK): Rights Trade Playbook
  • Swire Properties (1972 HK): Potential Passive Selling & Trade Ideas
  • Cathay Pacific (293 HK): Multiple Positive Developments
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Jun23)-Retail Pharmacy’s Dilemma, Logic to Biotech’s Stock Price,YSB’s Risk
  • China Consumption Weekly (24 Jun 2024): Kuaishou, Bilibili, NetEase, GAC, Honda Motor, Chow Tai Fook
  • Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669.HK) – The Company Is Now In Trouble
  • Morning Views Asia: Greentown China


MMG (1208 HK): Rights Trade Playbook

By Arun George

  • On 4 June, MMG (1208 HK) announced plans to raise HK$9.1bn (US$1.2bn) through 2 rights shares for every five existing shares rights offering, with a rights price of HK$2.62.
  • Since the rights issue announcement, MMG shares have declined by 16.2% to the undisturbed price and by 8.0% compared to the TERP of HK$3.48 per share. 
  • MMG’s trading pattern has diverged from Link REIT/Yuexiu’s rights trading due to the statement on 18 May that the Peruvian mine is not liable for a 30% withholding tax.

Swire Properties (1972 HK): Potential Passive Selling & Trade Ideas

By Brian Freitas


Cathay Pacific (293 HK): Multiple Positive Developments

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • With more foreign countries being granted visa-free visits to China, Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK) will benefit from more transfer traffic via Hong Kong.
  • Recovery is decent with passenger traffic rising 37.5% in 5M24. CX’s capacity already returned to 80% of pre-pandemic in 2Q24, and this will reach 100% in 1Q25. 
  • YTD, CX is still a laggard relative to many global airlines. Its P/B valuation is not stretched at 0.8x, given ROE of 11% over the next 3 years.  

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun23)-Retail Pharmacy’s Dilemma, Logic to Biotech’s Stock Price,YSB’s Risk

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Retail pharmacies experienced performance decline in April and May. Due to negative policies, retail pharmacies will experience industry clearance. Therefore, we do not recommend investors to bottom-fish related stocks now.
  • There is a logic to biotech’s performance from 2023 to present.The clearer the path of sustainable development, the better the stock price performance. They can be divided into three types.
  • YSB faces big risks and the outlook is not optimistic. If the final valuation of the Company is lower than China Resources Pharmaceutical and Shanghai Pharmaceuticals, we wouldn’t be too surprised.

China Consumption Weekly (24 Jun 2024): Kuaishou, Bilibili, NetEase, GAC, Honda Motor, Chow Tai Fook

By Ming Lu

  • Kuaishou and Bilibili’s GMV surged YoY during “June 18” sales.
  • World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King, will formally start on June 27.
  • GAC Honda Automobile Ltd planned to dismiss 1700 employees, about 14% of total.

Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669.HK) – The Company Is Now In Trouble

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Acotec’s 2023 performance was unsatisfactory. Core products suffered weak growth. Positive trend of continuing to optimize revenue structure was broken. Sales of latecomers’ competing products would expand rapidly in 2024/2025. 
  • Revenue proportion in overseas markets was still below 5% in 2023. If no highlights in Acotec’s cooperation with Boston Scientific in 2024, this collaboration could be considered a failure.
  • Due to VBP, margin could further decline. If it’s just the current situation, then Acotec is not as good as Zylox-Tonbridge. So, its valuation should also be lower than Zylox-Tonbridge.

Morning Views Asia: Greentown China

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief India: NIFTY Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • EQD / NSE Vol Update / IVs Stabilize After Falling Dramatically over past 2 Weeks


EQD / NSE Vol Update / IVs Stabilize After Falling Dramatically over past 2 Weeks

By Sankalp Singh

  • Implied Volatilities (IVs) stabilized over the week after falling dramatically since the 04-June-2024 India General Election results.
  • No tactical changes required while IVs are stable & “High & Down” Vol-state is maintained.
  • Vol Curve continues to be in Contango. Lack of significant event risk should keep term structure locked in its current orientation. 

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Daily Brief Japan: TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • What Lies Behind the Inability to Come up with Flexible Cash Usage Is


What Lies Behind the Inability to Come up with Flexible Cash Usage Is

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Many Japanese managers have little idea that what belongs to shareholders is net profit and not free cash flow. This has created two problems.
  • If Japanese companies, mostly manufacturers, use dividend payout ratios as a criterion for shareholder returns, cash on hand will not decline even if shareholder returns are increased to some extent.
  • The inability to move beyond the concept of allocating investment and shareholder returns based on increases or decreases in cash may be the reason for the unclear cash allocation policy.

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Daily Brief Industrials: LS Electric, Malaysia Airports Holdings, Cathay Pacific Airways and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Sanil Electric IPO Preview
  • Merger Arb Mondays (24 Jun) – Malaysia Airports, GA Pack, Infocom, Mimasu, Tatsuta, Capitol, MMA
  • Cathay Pacific (293 HK): Multiple Positive Developments


Sanil Electric IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Sanil Electric is getting ready to complete its IPO in late July in KOSPI. The IPO price range is from 24,000 won to 30,000 won per share. 
  • The company is planning is raise between 182.4 billion won and 228 billion won in this IPO. The book building for the institutional investors lasts from 9 to 15 July. 
  • Sanil Electric is best known for making special transformers used for special purposes in environments with severe weather changes, such as offshore wind power, solar power, and offshore plants. 


Cathay Pacific (293 HK): Multiple Positive Developments

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • With more foreign countries being granted visa-free visits to China, Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK) will benefit from more transfer traffic via Hong Kong.
  • Recovery is decent with passenger traffic rising 37.5% in 5M24. CX’s capacity already returned to 80% of pre-pandemic in 2Q24, and this will reach 100% in 1Q25. 
  • YTD, CX is still a laggard relative to many global airlines. Its P/B valuation is not stretched at 0.8x, given ROE of 11% over the next 3 years.  

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: MMG, Crude Oil, Iron Ore and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • MMG (1208 HK) Rights Trading Dynamics
  • MMG (1208 HK): Rights Trade Playbook
  • Commodity Analysis – Crude Oil WTI Futures
  • VALE US: Exposure to High-Grade Iron Ore With >8% Dividend Yield


MMG (1208 HK) Rights Trading Dynamics

By Travis Lundy

  • The MMG (1208 HK) rights, designed to raise US$1.15bn to pay off loans to the parent for the purchase of a large copper asset, start trading 24 June 2024. 
  • There is some risk up for grabs, and it is likely to trade according to standard Hong Kong Rights Trading Dynamics. Shorts are down somewhat, but covering should be expected. 
  • There is path-dependency to the Rights Trading, and while they trade for 7 trading days through Tuesday next, one should expect the volume to trade this week. 

MMG (1208 HK): Rights Trade Playbook

By Arun George

  • On 4 June, MMG (1208 HK) announced plans to raise HK$9.1bn (US$1.2bn) through 2 rights shares for every five existing shares rights offering, with a rights price of HK$2.62.
  • Since the rights issue announcement, MMG shares have declined by 16.2% to the undisturbed price and by 8.0% compared to the TERP of HK$3.48 per share. 
  • MMG’s trading pattern has diverged from Link REIT/Yuexiu’s rights trading due to the statement on 18 May that the Peruvian mine is not liable for a 30% withholding tax.

Commodity Analysis – Crude Oil WTI Futures

By VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

  • According to Graph 1, during the period February 28th , 2024 – May 31st , 2024, a mixed trend was reflected in the prices of crude oil futures amid fluctuations.
  • During the period under consideration, there was a notable increase in the price of crude oil until April 8th , 2024, whereas thereafter crude oil prices followed a downward trend returning to the levels seen at end of February 2024.
  • The MA- 10 was recorded to perform higher than MA-20 from the beginning, whereas on April 23rd the MA-20 took over and started trading above the MA 10 until the end of the period under consideration.

VALE US: Exposure to High-Grade Iron Ore With >8% Dividend Yield

By Sameer Taneja

  • We like Vale (VALE US) for its exposure to high-grade iron ore (95% of EBITDA) and capital return discipline, with a current dividend yield of 8% and 3.5x EV-EBITDA. 
  • The cash flows from the iron ore business could be used to invest in base metals, such as copper, nickel, etc., to enhance the portfolio. 
  • The key risk remains the overhang from the Mariana Dam disaster being settled for  ~25.7 billion USD (vs. the current market cap of 50 billion USD). 

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Erajaya Swasembada and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC & ASE Premiums Drop Sharply; ChipMOS Extreme Discount
  • Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) – Less New Stores with Higher Volumes


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC & ASE Premiums Drop Sharply; ChipMOS Extreme Discount

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +16.1% Premium, After Sharp Drop, Will Be Interesting to See If Spread Will Remain Within the Recent ~15-25% Range
  • ASE: +7.4% Premium; Can Consider Going Long the Spread Given Recent Trading Range
  • ChipMOS: -2.4% Discount Repesents Extreme Low of End of Range; Can Consider Going Long the Spread

Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) – Less New Stores with Higher Volumes

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) is back on track with its handset business, with stronger volume growth driven by more affordable models from Infinix and Techno brands.
  • The company’s buildout of its electrical retailer Erablue, a JV with Mobile World, is gaining momentum and should become a significant growth driver along with Grand Lucky supermarket.
  • Erajaya will slow its store buildout this year as it focuses on productivity ny it still expected to add 200 new stores over in Indonesia. Valuation is attractive.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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Daily Brief Industrials: LS Electric, Malaysia Airports Holdings, Cathay Pacific Airways and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Sanil Electric IPO Preview
  • Merger Arb Mondays (24 Jun) – Malaysia Airports, GA Pack, Infocom, Mimasu, Tatsuta, Capitol, MMA
  • Cathay Pacific (293 HK): Multiple Positive Developments


Sanil Electric IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Sanil Electric is getting ready to complete its IPO in late July in KOSPI. The IPO price range is from 24,000 won to 30,000 won per share. 
  • The company is planning is raise between 182.4 billion won and 228 billion won in this IPO. The book building for the institutional investors lasts from 9 to 15 July. 
  • Sanil Electric is best known for making special transformers used for special purposes in environments with severe weather changes, such as offshore wind power, solar power, and offshore plants. 


Cathay Pacific (293 HK): Multiple Positive Developments

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • With more foreign countries being granted visa-free visits to China, Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK) will benefit from more transfer traffic via Hong Kong.
  • Recovery is decent with passenger traffic rising 37.5% in 5M24. CX’s capacity already returned to 80% of pre-pandemic in 2Q24, and this will reach 100% in 1Q25. 
  • YTD, CX is still a laggard relative to many global airlines. Its P/B valuation is not stretched at 0.8x, given ROE of 11% over the next 3 years.  

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Daily Brief Financials: Swire Properties, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, NIFTY Index, Everest Re, EURO/US DOLLAR, Greentown China and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Swire Properties (1972 HK): Potential Passive Selling & Trade Ideas
  • Local Capital Market Movements Targeting July Implementation of Block Deal Pre-Disclosure Rule
  • EQD / NSE Vol Update / IVs Stabilize After Falling Dramatically over past 2 Weeks
  • Everest Group (EG) – Sunday, Mar 24, 2024
  • Comment on Exchange Rate EUR/USD – May 3, 2024
  • Morning Views Asia: Greentown China


Swire Properties (1972 HK): Potential Passive Selling & Trade Ideas

By Brian Freitas


Local Capital Market Movements Targeting July Implementation of Block Deal Pre-Disclosure Rule

By Sanghyun Park

  • The new pre-disclosure rule starting July 24th will reshape business practices. Local institutions are now preparing by launching dedicated block deal funds, targeting 40 to 80 deals annually.
  • No rule bars short-sellers from block deals post-pre-disclosure. Local institutions are planning to exploit this, anticipating sellers favoring club deals under new July rules, potentially stabilizing prices for hedge strategies.
  • Access to club deals will be crucial post-July in Korea’s block deal market. Effective short-selling instruments are also vital with the ban extended until March next year.

EQD / NSE Vol Update / IVs Stabilize After Falling Dramatically over past 2 Weeks

By Sankalp Singh

  • Implied Volatilities (IVs) stabilized over the week after falling dramatically since the 04-June-2024 India General Election results.
  • No tactical changes required while IVs are stable & “High & Down” Vol-state is maintained.
  • Vol Curve continues to be in Contango. Lack of significant event risk should keep term structure locked in its current orientation. 

Everest Group (EG) – Sunday, Mar 24, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Everest Group has sustainable and improving 15-20% ROEs
  • Stock trades at a valuation of 1.2x book and 6x P/E
  • Poised for future success with accelerating casualty pricing, stable property-cat rates, and potential for hitting 90 combined ratio target

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Comment on Exchange Rate EUR/USD – May 3, 2024

By VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

  • During the period under consideration, i.e. April 3rd, 2024 to May 3rd, 2024, the EUR/USD pair posted both downward and upward swings.
  • In the beginning, it faced a slight increase, while from April 9th until April 18th the pair faced a sharp decrease.
  • After that, it fluctuated sideways and by the end of the period the pair traded at a higher level but still below the price level of the start of April. 

Morning Views Asia: Greentown China

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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