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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: StubWorld: Sun Corp (6736 JP) Running Out Of Puff? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • StubWorld: Sun Corp (6736 JP) Running Out Of Puff?
  • Mega Caps Thrive But Other Tech Firms Are Punished for Lack of AI-Linked Earnings Potential
  • The Beat Ideas: Kama Holdings- A Growing Player at Deep Discount
  • Asics (7936) | Raising the Bar
  • Midea Real Estate (3990 HK):  Divesting Property Development Business (Cash Option At 57% Premium)
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (25-Jun-2024): Konrad Young pushes Taiwan-UK collab in quantum tech
  • 4Q Follow-Up – Torex Semiconductor (6616 JP)
  • China Gas Holdings (384 HK): Still Warrants a Look
  • Nu Ride (NRDE) – Friday, Mar 22, 2024
  • Lincoln National Corp (LNC) – Monday, Mar 25, 2024


StubWorld: Sun Corp (6736 JP) Running Out Of Puff?

By David Blennerhassett

  • Trading comfortably through the Partial Offer terms, Sun Corp (6736 JP) may still do nothing with its Cellebrite DI (CLBT US) holding towards narrowing the NAV discount.
  • Preceding my comments on Sun Corp are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Mega Caps Thrive But Other Tech Firms Are Punished for Lack of AI-Linked Earnings Potential

By Uttkarsh Kohli

  • Mega cap stocks like Nvidia, Alphabet, and Microsoft surpass lofty market expectations, in the latest earnings season leading to continued rallies. 
  • Profits from AI innovations are accumulating predominantly at the bottom of the supply chain, benefiting large hardware and cloud service providers. 
  • Smaller tech companies, including Salesforce, MongoDB, and Dell, have experienced sharp corrections due to lofty expectations and their limited capacity to generate significant AI revenue.

The Beat Ideas: Kama Holdings- A Growing Player at Deep Discount

By Sudarshan Bhandari


Asics (7936) | Raising the Bar

By Mark Chadwick

  • Asics has demonstrated impressive growth in gross profit margins, as evidenced by 4.3ppt YoY improvement in Q1 to 54.5%
  • Asics has been successful in growing market share and enhancing its brand strength
  • For FY2024, we now forecast a 10% YoY increase in sales to ¥628 billion and a 46% rise in OP to ¥79 billion (prev: ¥ 71b)

Midea Real Estate (3990 HK):  Divesting Property Development Business (Cash Option At 57% Premium)

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Midea Real Estate Holding (3990 HK) announced last night a proposal for distribution in specie of the property development business to shareholders.
  • The proposal allows shareholders to select between receiving pro rata shares in the PrivateCo, or the cash alternative at HKD5.90 per share, a 57% premium to last close at HKD3.75. 
  • I believe this is a good deal for minority shareholders.  The company (ex. property development business) will continue to be listed on the HKSE after the distribution. 

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (25-Jun-2024): Konrad Young pushes Taiwan-UK collab in quantum tech

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Former TSMC R&D director Konrad Young advocates for a partnership between Taiwan and the UK in quantum technology.
  • Chinese car brands attract young Thai consumers with innovative smart cockpit features, winning over the market.
  • Xiaomi implements strategic changes in India after a decade of entering the market, adapting to new trends and demands.

4Q Follow-Up – Torex Semiconductor (6616 JP)

By Sessa Investment Research

  • While current underlying demand has yet to show signs of a strong recovery, progress has been made in inventory adjustments in the distribution supply chain, and TOREX expects a recovery in sales from the 2H of 2024, and the top priority for this term is strengthening sales expansion initiatives.
  • Regarding the initial FY25/3 consolidated OP forecast, in addition to a contribution of ¥1,150mn from the +8.7% YoY increase in net sales, the decrease of ¥2,370mn in inventory write-downs in manufacturing cost of sales will drive a strong recovery in OP.
  • Although capex is set to decline -31.9% YoY to ¥3,600mn (mainly for equipment being installed in the new Phenitec Kagoshima Fab clean room), having peaked out last term, depreciation will increase +27.7% YoY to ¥3,000mn as the new clean room has started operations. 

China Gas Holdings (384 HK): Still Warrants a Look

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China Gas Holdings (384 HK)‘s FY24 result is distorted by non-recurring items and provisions. Adjusted net profit, however, has declined by only 4.3%, and is only 2.6% below consensus. 
  • FY25 guidance looks positive as a 6% increase in dollar margin and a 5% increase in gas volume are expected. The Apr-May operating figures support such projections.
  • China Gas maintained its DPS despite a drop in reported profit, showcasing its confidence. Assuming the same dividend in FY25 and FY26, it will sit on a yield of 7%. 

Nu Ride (NRDE) – Friday, Mar 22, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Nu Ride is a SPAC with $2.5 per share in cash and $1 billion in net operating losses
  • Company has $2.9 per share of net cash and $2.0 per share of perpetual preferred held by Foxconn
  • Ongoing litigation actions against Foxconn and former executives could result in potential increase in net cash value to $4.5 per share

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Lincoln National Corp (LNC) – Monday, Mar 25, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • LNC is poised for growth in the U.S. life insurance market due to improving fundamentals, positive earnings per share revisions, and an attractive valuation
  • Despite past challenges with capital and credibility, management has successfully addressed issues and reshaped the business, leading to a clear roadmap for future growth
  • With potential catalysts on the horizon, LNC has significant upside potential and the possibility of a shift in investor sentiment in the near future.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Most Read: Mitsui & Co Ltd, Swire Properties, MMG, Sanil Electric, Sun Corp, T Gaia Corp, Lotte Non Life Insurance Co, Shanghai Henlius Biotech , Japan Hotel Reit Investment and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Mitsui & Co (8031) – ¥100bn Overnight Equity Offering
  • Swire Properties (1972 HK): Potential Passive Selling & Trade Ideas
  • MMG (1208 HK) Rights Trading Dynamics
  • Sanil Electric IPO Preview
  • StubWorld: Sun Corp (6736 JP) Running Out Of Puff?
  • Mitsui & Co Placement – Another Cross-Shareholding Unwind, This Is a Small One to Digest
  • T-Gaia (3738 JP) – Possible Premium Takeout Story
  • Chronic Insider Trading in the Korean Tender Offer Market & Time Positions for Short-Term Targets
  • Henlius (2696 HK): Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 Offer at Around Half the IPO Price
  • Japan Hotel REIT Placement – Relatively Large Deal but It Is Accretive


Mitsui & Co (8031) – ¥100bn Overnight Equity Offering

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close, Mitsui & Co Ltd (8031 JP) announced that MS&AD Insurance (8725 JP) and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP) would sell 14.9mm shares in an offering.
  • This will get priced today or tomorrow, sold to institutional investors. This is ¥107bn, 4 days of ADV and 1% of shares out. It is not dilutive. 
  • Mitsui & Co has a buyback program with ¥123bn left til end-Sep, when presumably it will reload. Looks easy today, but measuring Mitsui & Co vs Peers is less flattering.

Swire Properties (1972 HK): Potential Passive Selling & Trade Ideas

By Brian Freitas


MMG (1208 HK) Rights Trading Dynamics

By Travis Lundy

  • The MMG (1208 HK) rights, designed to raise US$1.15bn to pay off loans to the parent for the purchase of a large copper asset, start trading 24 June 2024. 
  • There is some risk up for grabs, and it is likely to trade according to standard Hong Kong Rights Trading Dynamics. Shorts are down somewhat, but covering should be expected. 
  • There is path-dependency to the Rights Trading, and while they trade for 7 trading days through Tuesday next, one should expect the volume to trade this week. 

Sanil Electric IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Sanil Electric is getting ready to complete its IPO in late July in KOSPI. The IPO price range is from 24,000 won to 30,000 won per share. 
  • The company is planning is raise between 182.4 billion won and 228 billion won in this IPO. The book building for the institutional investors lasts from 9 to 15 July. 
  • Sanil Electric is best known for making special transformers used for special purposes in environments with severe weather changes, such as offshore wind power, solar power, and offshore plants. 

StubWorld: Sun Corp (6736 JP) Running Out Of Puff?

By David Blennerhassett

  • Trading comfortably through the Partial Offer terms, Sun Corp (6736 JP) may still do nothing with its Cellebrite DI (CLBT US) holding towards narrowing the NAV discount.
  • Preceding my comments on Sun Corp are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Mitsui & Co Placement – Another Cross-Shareholding Unwind, This Is a Small One to Digest

By Clarence Chu


T-Gaia (3738 JP) – Possible Premium Takeout Story

By Travis Lundy

  • I kind of hate this, but I also can’t ignore it. Apparently, an expensive media service Reporting on Deals or about the Market for Mergers, had an article today.
  • Bloomberg carried a small blurb saying there was “speculation on a tender offer…. according to traders”. The stock is untraded, limit up.  
  • The most informative comment comes from Japanese stock market portal ‘kabutan‘ which suggests “overseas media” thinks Sumitomo Corp will sell its shares. I look at the possibilities below.

Chronic Insider Trading in the Korean Tender Offer Market & Time Positions for Short-Term Targets

By Sanghyun Park

  • There is a high likelihood of information leaking through the lead securities firm when the tender offer prospectus is provided to branches about three days before the disclosure.
  • With the FSS’s stricter stance, tender offer candidates may act swiftly before new regulations, prompting attention to potential surges in tender offers.
  • Our approach is clear: identify short-term tender offer candidates, monitor trading volumes for spikes, and use the three-day pre-disclosure surge to time our positions effectively.

Henlius (2696 HK): Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 Offer at Around Half the IPO Price

By Arun George

  • Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) disclosed a pre-conditional privatisation offer by Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK) at HK$24.60, a 36.7% premium to the undisturbed price. The offer price is final. 
  • The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (<10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). There is no minimum acceptance condition. 
  • Long term investors will be unimpressed as the offer is half the HK$49.60 IPO price. However, shareholders with blocking stakes should be supportive partly because of the share alternative option.

Japan Hotel REIT Placement – Relatively Large Deal but It Is Accretive

By Sumeet Singh

  • Japan Hotel Reit Investment (8985 JP) aims to raise around US$214m to partly fund the acquisition of four hotel assets.
  • The company has undertaken a number of deals in the past, most of which have managed to perform well.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: T-Gaia (3738 JP) – Possible Premium Takeout Story and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • T-Gaia (3738 JP) – Possible Premium Takeout Story
  • Unlocking Value: SEBI’s New Special Call Auction Mechanism Explained
  • Chronic Insider Trading in the Korean Tender Offer Market & Time Positions for Short-Term Targets
  • Henlius (2696 HK): Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 Offer at Around Half the IPO Price
  • Best World (BEST SP): EGM Vote on 19 July
  • Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Dec 24: Some Expected DELs Could Underperform Peers
  • Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Dec 24: Expected ADDs Could Outperform Expected DELs
  • Henlius Biotech (2696 HK): Fosun Pharma’s “Fair” Offer
  • Carlsberg/Britvic: Awaiting a Third Proposal


T-Gaia (3738 JP) – Possible Premium Takeout Story

By Travis Lundy

  • I kind of hate this, but I also can’t ignore it. Apparently, an expensive media service Reporting on Deals or about the Market for Mergers, had an article today.
  • Bloomberg carried a small blurb saying there was “speculation on a tender offer…. according to traders”. The stock is untraded, limit up.  
  • The most informative comment comes from Japanese stock market portal ‘kabutan‘ which suggests “overseas media” thinks Sumitomo Corp will sell its shares. I look at the possibilities below.

Unlocking Value: SEBI’s New Special Call Auction Mechanism Explained

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • SEBI introduced the SPECIAL CALL AUCTION framework for Listed Holding Companies to unlock the value.
  • The first special call auction is set to take place in October.
  • Some companies are trading at a discount of more than 50% or even 80%, post this framework, shares will be traded at fair value.

Chronic Insider Trading in the Korean Tender Offer Market & Time Positions for Short-Term Targets

By Sanghyun Park

  • There is a high likelihood of information leaking through the lead securities firm when the tender offer prospectus is provided to branches about three days before the disclosure.
  • With the FSS’s stricter stance, tender offer candidates may act swiftly before new regulations, prompting attention to potential surges in tender offers.
  • Our approach is clear: identify short-term tender offer candidates, monitor trading volumes for spikes, and use the three-day pre-disclosure surge to time our positions effectively.

Henlius (2696 HK): Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 Offer at Around Half the IPO Price

By Arun George

  • Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) disclosed a pre-conditional privatisation offer by Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK) at HK$24.60, a 36.7% premium to the undisturbed price. The offer price is final. 
  • The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (<10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). There is no minimum acceptance condition. 
  • Long term investors will be unimpressed as the offer is half the HK$49.60 IPO price. However, shareholders with blocking stakes should be supportive partly because of the share alternative option.

Best World (BEST SP): EGM Vote on 19 July

By Arun George

  • The Best World International (BEST SP) IFA considers the S$2.56 exit offer fair and reasonable as it is towards the upper end of its S$1.36-2.69 per share valuation range. 
  • The key conditions are approval for the selective capital reduction (at least 75% of eligible shareholders) and delisting resolution (a majority holding not less than 75% in value).
  • The lack of activists, IFA supporting recommendations, and no competing offer suggest a done deal. At the last close, the gross spread was 2.8%.

Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Dec 24: Some Expected DELs Could Underperform Peers

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • SSE 50 and SSE 180, respectively, aim to represent the performance of the 50 and 180 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs during the December 2024 index rebal event.
  • We currently estimate one-way flows to be US$1.4bn and US$235mn for the SSE 50 and 180, respectively.

Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Dec 24: Expected ADDs Could Outperform Expected DELs

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The ChiNext Index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
  • The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext Index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
  • We see seven change for the ChiNext index and five changes for the ChiNext 50 index.

Henlius Biotech (2696 HK): Fosun Pharma’s “Fair” Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (2196 HK) has made a HK$24.60/share Offer (best & final), in cash, for H-shares not held in Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK). A scrip alternative may be afforded. 
  • As Henlius is PRC-incorporated, this Offer is structured as a Merger by Absorption, involving a Scheme-like vote for independent H-shareholders. There is no tendering condition.
  • Pre-Conditions include NDRC, MoC, and SAFE. The Long Stop date to secure these conditions is 30th April 2025. That’s way too conservative. This should be wrapped up around mid 4Q24.

Carlsberg/Britvic: Awaiting a Third Proposal

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • On June 24, Carlsberg announced that Pepsico had agreed to waive a change of control clause in its bottling deals with Britvic. The current proposal is 1250p (+9.5p interim).
  • The offer represents an undemanding 12x EV/fwd NTM EBITDA. My standalone base case fair-value estimate is 1,056p/share. An improved offer could come >1,300p, although 1,420p (13.3x wouldn’t  be unreasonable).
  • Gross spread to the revised offer is 6.2% (6.9% including interim). Shares are pricing a 72% probability of deal success. I believe Carlsberg will come with an improved offer. Long.

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Daily Brief ECM: Mitsui & Co (8031) – ¥100bn Overnight Equity Offering and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Mitsui & Co (8031) – ¥100bn Overnight Equity Offering
  • Mitsui & Co Placement – Another Cross-Shareholding Unwind, This Is a Small One to Digest
  • Japan Hotel REIT Placement – Relatively Large Deal but It Is Accretive
  • Avanse Financial Services Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Hyundai Motor India Pre-IPO – The Positives – Quasi-Local, Riding the SUV Wave


Mitsui & Co (8031) – ¥100bn Overnight Equity Offering

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close, Mitsui & Co Ltd (8031 JP) announced that MS&AD Insurance (8725 JP) and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP) would sell 14.9mm shares in an offering.
  • This will get priced today or tomorrow, sold to institutional investors. This is ¥107bn, 4 days of ADV and 1% of shares out. It is not dilutive. 
  • Mitsui & Co has a buyback program with ¥123bn left til end-Sep, when presumably it will reload. Looks easy today, but measuring Mitsui & Co vs Peers is less flattering.

Mitsui & Co Placement – Another Cross-Shareholding Unwind, This Is a Small One to Digest

By Clarence Chu


Japan Hotel REIT Placement – Relatively Large Deal but It Is Accretive

By Sumeet Singh

  • Japan Hotel Reit Investment (8985 JP) aims to raise around US$214m to partly fund the acquisition of four hotel assets.
  • The company has undertaken a number of deals in the past, most of which have managed to perform well.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Avanse Financial Services Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Avanse Financial Services (1288481D IN) is looking to raise up to US$419m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners will be JPM, Nomura, Kotak, Avendus, Nuvama Wealth and SBI Capital.
  • Avanse Financial Services (AFS) is an education focused non-banking financial company (NBFC) operating in India. 
  • It offers full stack education products ranging from education loans for students to growth capital for education institutions through education infrastructure loans. 

Hyundai Motor India Pre-IPO – The Positives – Quasi-Local, Riding the SUV Wave

By Sumeet Singh

  • Hyundai Motor (005387 KS) is looking to raise around US$3bn via listing its India unit, Hyundai Motor India. HMI is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Hyundai Motor Group.
  • HMI primarily manufactures and sells four-wheeler passenger vehicles and parts. Currently its vehicle portfolio includes 13 passenger vehicle models across sedans, hatchbacks, SUVs and battery EVs.
  • In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): SEBI’s New Measures to Tackle IPO Call Auction Manipulation and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • SEBI’s New Measures to Tackle IPO Call Auction Manipulation
  • Ohayo Japan | Mixed Message Monday
  • Relief Comes to Global Supply Chain with Panama Canal Returns to Normalcy
  • #17 India Insight: Fintech Dominance, Electronics Boom, Tata Steel Challenge
  • Japan Drugstores: More M&A as Sector Attacks Supermarkets and Conbini
  • Semiconductor WFE Q124 Revenues, China’s Share & What Are They Doing With All Those Tools?
  • Oilfield Services: Still Way Too Cheap
  • Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – June 24, 2024
  • Biopharma Week in Review – June 24, 2024
  • The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending June 21, 2024


SEBI’s New Measures to Tackle IPO Call Auction Manipulation

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • SEBI shortens IPO pre-open call auction sessions, introduces random closure, and enhances surveillance to combat manipulation.
  • These measures aim to improve price discovery, transparency, and prevent artificial inflation of demand and supply in IPOs.
  • SEBI’s proactive steps bolster market integrity, making IPO processes fairer and more reliable for investors.

Ohayo Japan | Mixed Message Monday

By Mark Chadwick

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 260 points (0.7%) to extend its winning streak to five days
  • Nvidia’s 6.7% drop dragging the Nasdaq down by 1.1% and putting Nvidia into correction territory.
  • Shimamura’s March-May 2024 profits hit a record high, driven by strong sales of high-end private brands

Relief Comes to Global Supply Chain with Panama Canal Returns to Normalcy

By Amrutha Raj

  • The ACP has expedited the increase of the maximum authorized draft for vessels to forty-five feet in line with rising water levels and the start of the rainy season.
  • Adjustments to draft and transit schedules are driven by higher-than-expected water levels in Gatun and Alajuela Lakes since May 26.
  • ACP is implementing range of water-saving initiatives and planning infrastructure investments such as a new reservoir, to enhance capacity and resilience against climate variability.

#17 India Insight: Fintech Dominance, Electronics Boom, Tata Steel Challenge

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • India’s fintech startups to dominate future unicorns, contributing $11.4 billion value
  • Electronics manufacturing sector projected to hit $500 billion valuation by 2030
  • Tata Steel might expedite furnace closures amid strike and job cut disputes

Japan Drugstores: More M&A as Sector Attacks Supermarkets and Conbini

By Michael Causton

  • The big merger between Welcia and Tsuruha is part of a wider concentration of market share in the drugstore sector as the leaders take on supermarkets and even convenience stores.
  • Japan’s drugstores have morphed into multiple sub-formats, selling food and other FMCG products in ever higher ratios, creating massive pressure for other sectors. 
  • The net effect is the emergence of a powerful new retail sector that is impacting all other FMCG retail formats and even lifestyle categories like cosmetics.

Semiconductor WFE Q124 Revenues, China’s Share & What Are They Doing With All Those Tools?

By William Keating

  • Global semiconductor equipment billings amounted to $26.4 billion in Q124, down 6% QoQ and down 2% YoY
  • China’s annual WFE spending has roughly doubled between 2020 and 2023 to $36.6 billion
  • A combination of China’s WFE customers including new entrants and a high failure rate among semi startups means that spending has not yet translated into corresponding increase in semi output

Oilfield Services: Still Way Too Cheap

By Atrium Research

  • We anticipate oil prices to remain within the US$80-$90 range, which will sustain the current uptick in E&P capital expenditure and foster a strong environment for oilfield services firms.
  • Our peer group continues to trade at deep-value multiples; currently at 4.5x/4.0x 2024E/2025E EBITDA.
  • We highlight a few of our favourite small-cap names that we believe have significant upside as we move into H2/24.

Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – June 24, 2024

By Water Tower Research

  • SCS and LZB both reported strong earnings. Steelcase gained 7.2% for the week after posting strong orders and margins in 1QFY25 with adjusted EPS of $0.16, beating consensus of $0.10 and our estimate of $0.11. LZB surged 12.4% after posting adjusted 4QFY24 EPS of $0.95 versus consensus of $0.70.
  • It was a mixed week for the Water Tower Research Furniture/Furnishings indexes.
  • The Commercial/Contract Furniture Index was up 3.3% for the week, while the Residential Manufacturers & Suppliers Index was down 1.1% and the Home Goods Retailers Index was down 1.2%. 

Biopharma Week in Review – June 24, 2024

By Water Tower Research

  • We are initiating our Biopharma Week in Review.
  • In this report, we will review coverage items and last week’s biopharma news for meaningful clinical data, regulatory updates, research innovation, and M&A.
  • We published an initiation of coverage on Ainos, Inc. (AIMD). Click here for the full report.

The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending June 21, 2024

By Water Tower Research

  • US cannabis stocks climbed higher last week, with the US cannabis MSOS ETF gaining 5.15%, while the global YOLO ETF lost 2.04%.
  • Among the larger MSOs, Verano (NEO: VRNO, OTCQX: VRNOF) had the best week, jumping 9.84%.
  • Verano rose after sharing it authorized a $50 million share repurchase program on Monday. 

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Softbank Group and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Softbank Group


Morning Views Asia: Softbank Group

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Crypto: Liquidity Headwinds Play Catch Up and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Liquidity Headwinds Play Catch Up
  • Crypto Crisp: There it was, the height of Mt. Gox fear


Liquidity Headwinds Play Catch Up

By Delphi Digital

  • BTC faces headwinds as global liquidity contracts, impacting recent price action.
  • Spot BTC ETFs initially fueled highs, but inflows and volumes are now declining.
  • Crypto markets need a major catalyst to counteract waning liquidity support.

Crypto Crisp: There it was, the height of Mt. Gox fear

By Mads Eberhardt

  • It was only a matter of time. Today, Mt. Gox confirmed that it will begin distributing its Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash holdings to creditors, primarily former clients, starting in July.
  • The announcement did not specify the exact date or the timeline for the repayments.
  • The crypto market reacted poorly to this news, with Bitcoin dropping nearly 4% since the announcement this morning.

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Daily Brief Macro: India:  Record Exposure Gives Rise to Caution and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • India:  Record Exposure Gives Rise to Caution
  • US Crude Oil Output at Risk as Rig Count Plummets
  • Mexico: GEM Funds Wrong-Footed After Election Results.
  • The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Prodia’s Cure, Ace Hardware, and Erajaya’s Growing Volumes
  • Strengthening Risk Management in the Booming Private Credit Market
  • France: Redefining ‘The Right’
  • Energy Cable: Bullish Oil, Bearish Nat Gas, and Especially Metals! Here’s Why!
  • Fund Managers Reduce Commodities Again
  • China’s Excess Production over Domestic Demand
  • The Week At A Glance: Time to bet against the USD?


India:  Record Exposure Gives Rise to Caution

By Steven Holden

  • The average Indian allocation among active GEM funds broke through the 15% barrier at the start of 2024, despite an increasing underweight versus the benchmark index.
  • Valuation-Driven Underweight: The average weight versus the iShares MSCI EM ETF hit record underweights of -2.44%, with only 27.6% of funds positioned overweight. EM Value funds hit record -8.7% underweight.
  • HDFC Bank is the most widely held stock, owned by 60.5% of funds, while a majority of Indian names, such as Reliance Industries, are underweighted by active GEM funds.

US Crude Oil Output at Risk as Rig Count Plummets

By Suhas Reddy

  • US oil rig count falls to 485 as of the week ending on 21/June, its lowest since January 2022.
  • US oil and gas rig count is falling as producers prioritize shareholder returns over increasing output.
  • Rising labour and equipment costs along with macroeconomic uncertainties further discourage producers from adding rigs.  

Mexico: GEM Funds Wrong-Footed After Election Results.

By Steven Holden

  • Mexico has seen increased inflows and exposure over the past 3-4 years, with funds invested reaching an all-time high of 94.6% and average holding weights climbing to 3.93%.
  • The percentage of active EM funds overweight the benchmark rose from 20% in 2011 to over 69% last month, making Mexico the largest overweight compared country peers.
  • Grupo Financiero Banorte and Wal-Mart de Mexico are key contributors to the net Mexican overweight, with Banorte seeing increased exposure of +4.26% of funds in the last 6 months

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Prodia’s Cure, Ace Hardware, and Erajaya’s Growing Volumes

By Angus Mackintosh


Strengthening Risk Management in the Booming Private Credit Market

By Albert Maass

  • Private credit’s rapid growth necessitates enhanced risk management due to increased capital inflows and limited high-quality investment opportunities.
  • Focus on credit risk, liquidity risk, and interest rate risk, ensuring thorough due diligence and stress testing.
  • Employ advanced risk models, foster strong risk culture, leverage technology, and stay updated on regulatory changes for sustainable market positioning.

France: Redefining ‘The Right’

By Alastair Newton

  • The centre maintained its position in the European Parliament elections.
  • The unexpected general election in France is contributing to the rise of the ‘far right’.
  • The EPP’s post-election negotiations in Brussels are also strengthening the ‘far right’, which is reshaping conservatism in Europe.

Energy Cable: Bullish Oil, Bearish Nat Gas, and Especially Metals! Here’s Why!

By Ulrik Simmelholt

  • We start with crude oil, where positions in crude oil futures have returned to Covid-19 pandemic levels, which we believe is overly bearish.
  • The economy is normalizing with rising travel and growing consumer energy demand.
  • Despite this, the futures market’s bearish sentiment seems misaligned with these positive economic indicators.

Fund Managers Reduce Commodities Again

By The Commodity Report

  • Fund managers recently reduced their broad commodity position as well as energy position, compared to last month, according to the latest BofA survey.
  • Compared to the long-term z-score, fund managers are now heavily under-positioned in energy but close to neutral positioned in broad commodities.
  • In a recent note, Goldman Sachs explained their views about commodities if inflation would re-accelerate again – or in detail beat the market estimates and lead to an inflation upside surprise.

China’s Excess Production over Domestic Demand

By Alex Ng

  • Classical economist believes in what is called the “Say’s Law” i.e. supply creates its own demand. But the case of China’s excess production disproves this law.
  • Industry output far exceeds demand and inventory is piling up over the last decade.
  • Heavy industries such as steel, aluminium, cement, coal, and shipbuilding, are particularly prone to over-capacity as China has been over-stretching its infrastructure development since 2008. 

The Week At A Glance: Time to bet against the USD?

By Andreas Steno

  • Greetings from Europe! The Week At A Glance replaces our Morning Report each Monday as it allows for a deep dive into the economic releases and major tradeable themes for the week ahead.
  • We see a couple of major tradeable themes in the week(s) ahead.
  • First, the Euro area data, which is still improving in forward-looking indicators, while spot data remains relatively soft, probably in part due to a plethora of (potential) election risks.

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Daily Brief Australia: MMG and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • MMG (1208 HK) Rights Trading Dynamics


MMG (1208 HK) Rights Trading Dynamics

By Travis Lundy

  • The MMG (1208 HK) rights, designed to raise US$1.15bn to pay off loans to the parent for the purchase of a large copper asset, start trading 24 June 2024. 
  • There is some risk up for grabs, and it is likely to trade according to standard Hong Kong Rights Trading Dynamics. Shorts are down somewhat, but covering should be expected. 
  • There is path-dependency to the Rights Trading, and while they trade for 7 trading days through Tuesday next, one should expect the volume to trade this week. 

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Daily Brief South Korea: Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, LS Electric, Webtoon Entertainment and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Local Capital Market Movements Targeting July Implementation of Block Deal Pre-Disclosure Rule
  • Sanil Electric IPO Preview
  • ECM Weekly (24th June 2024)-Webtoon, Guzman, Black Ses, Johor Plant, Bajaj Housing, Infratil, Mizuho


Local Capital Market Movements Targeting July Implementation of Block Deal Pre-Disclosure Rule

By Sanghyun Park

  • The new pre-disclosure rule starting July 24th will reshape business practices. Local institutions are now preparing by launching dedicated block deal funds, targeting 40 to 80 deals annually.
  • No rule bars short-sellers from block deals post-pre-disclosure. Local institutions are planning to exploit this, anticipating sellers favoring club deals under new July rules, potentially stabilizing prices for hedge strategies.
  • Access to club deals will be crucial post-July in Korea’s block deal market. Effective short-selling instruments are also vital with the ban extended until March next year.

Sanil Electric IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Sanil Electric is getting ready to complete its IPO in late July in KOSPI. The IPO price range is from 24,000 won to 30,000 won per share. 
  • The company is planning is raise between 182.4 billion won and 228 billion won in this IPO. The book building for the institutional investors lasts from 9 to 15 July. 
  • Sanil Electric is best known for making special transformers used for special purposes in environments with severe weather changes, such as offshore wind power, solar power, and offshore plants. 

ECM Weekly (24th June 2024)-Webtoon, Guzman, Black Ses, Johor Plant, Bajaj Housing, Infratil, Mizuho

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
  • On the IPO front, Guzman provided some hope to the Australian market, while Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US) and Allied Blenders & Distillers will soon test their respective markets.
  • There was no dearth of placement this week, with large deals in Hong Kong, New Zealand and India.

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