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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: KRX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 9th): Celltrion and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 9th): Celltrion, Sk Hynix, Samsung Heavy Industries, L&F, Posco


KRX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 9th): Celltrion, Sk Hynix, Samsung Heavy Industries, L&F, Posco

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Aug 9th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD5.1bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Celltrion, Sk Hynix, Samsung Heavy Industries, L&F, Posco.

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Daily Brief Private Markets: Aprisium scores US$7M to expand contaminant detection solution to US and more

By | Daily Briefs, Private Markets

In today’s briefing:

  • Aprisium scores US$7M to expand contaminant detection solution to US, Europe | e27
  • Beep secures US$3.3M to expand interoperable EV charging network in Thailand, Malaysia | e27


Aprisium scores US$7M to expand contaminant detection solution to US, Europe | e27

By e27

  • Singapore-based Aprisium, a provider of advanced contaminant detection and monitoring solutions, has secured US$7 million in an oversubscribed Series A financing round led by Deep-Tech Venture Partners and Cocoon Capital.
  • Woh Hup and Solisa Peppercorn also participated.
  • The new funding will fuel Aprisium’s expansion into key markets in Europe, the US, and Asia.

Beep secures US$3.3M to expand interoperable EV charging network in Thailand, Malaysia | e27

By e27

  • Beep, an IoT company that provides interoperable charging networks for businesses and drivers in Singapore, has closed its US$3.3 million pre-Series A investment.
  • The round was led by existing investors Granite Asia (formerly GGV Capital), Farquhar VC, SUTD Venture Holdings, and Wing Vasiksiri, with participation from M7 Ace Neo, an M7 Company.
  • The startup will use the funds to accelerate its expansion in Thailand and Malaysi

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Daily Brief ESG: Smaller PE Funds May Have Opportunities to Invest in MBOs of TSE Growth Market Companies and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Smaller PE Funds May Have Opportunities to Invest in MBOs of TSE Growth Market Companies


Smaller PE Funds May Have Opportunities to Invest in MBOs of TSE Growth Market Companies

By Aki Matsumoto

  • TSE growth market, which institutional investors distance themselves from due to its low liquidity, is a market where gamblers who focus on price movements gobble up one IPO after another.
  • To convert users from gamblers to investors, companies with long-term growth potential should be listed. Raising the market capitalization criteria for Growth Market could improve the quality of IPOs.
  • Meanwhile, in order to improve the quality of the TSE Growth Market, existing listed companies should consider going private through an MBO.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Market Rallies with a Shot of Starbucks and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Market Rallies with a Shot of Starbucks
  • Dividend Stocks For Market Turbulence: China A-Shares Market
  • Japan Morning Connection: Softbank, Sapporo, Kose
  • # 45 India Insight: ONGC, Oil India Price Premium, JSW Steel Acquisition, Adani Green RE Target
  • [Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:PDD US/CPNGUS/4385JP/4689JP/4755JP/BABA US/1024HK/JD US/3690HK/700HK
  • Bunge Q2 Results Disappoint. Lower Margins Eclipse Strong Volume Growth.
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]:ATAT US/TCOM US/1810 HK/AAPL US/1519 HK/ZTO US/XPEV US/2454 TT/QCOM US/LKNCY US


Ohayo Japan | Market Rallies with a Shot of Starbucks

By Mark Chadwick

  • Stocks surged on Tuesday, with major indices edging closer to record highs as investors reacted positively to a key inflation report
  • Starbucks saw a significant 24.5% stock increase after naming Chipotle CEO Brian Niccol as its next leader
  • Japan reported a 8% year-on-year increase in July machine tool orders, reaching 124 billion yen. This marks the third consecutive month of growth

Dividend Stocks For Market Turbulence: China A-Shares Market

By Mohshin Aziz

  • Shanghai Index is trading at cheap levels based on P/E, P/BV, and P/CF, both against its own history and the valuation gap against other major markets.
  • Many companies are paying good dividends, the top-10 highest yielding stocks averages at 12.5%. Dividend cover is solid (>1x), and all are big MCAP with decent ADTV (>USD2m).
  • Investors have been underweight China for a long time. Even high quality blue chip stocks are trading at single-digit PE and paying dividends >7%.

Japan Morning Connection: Softbank, Sapporo, Kose

By Andrew Jackson

  • ARM +5.7% will help lift 9984 Softbank which is lagging some of the other high-beta plays in Japan giving it plenty of room to rebound further.
  • The market is going to like the news that 2501 Sapporo is finally listening to activist investors who have been angling for the firm to divest some of its large R/E holdings.
  • 4922 Kose is looking more interesting after it’s failure to rebound looks to have been caused by a negative read from 4911 Shiseido’s poor numbers rather than anything company specific.

# 45 India Insight: ONGC, Oil India Price Premium, JSW Steel Acquisition, Adani Green RE Target

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • ONGC, Oil India to Price New Gas at 20% Premium over the APM price.
  • JSW Steel buys a 66.67% stake in M Res NSW for $120 million.
  • Adani Green Energy aims for a 30% CAGR in renewable capacity.

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:PDD US/CPNGUS/4385JP/4689JP/4755JP/BABA US/1024HK/JD US/3690HK/700HK

By Ying Pan

  • PDD US/CPNG US/4385 JP/4689 JP/4755 JP: Temu to launch semi-consignment in Japan and South Korea in October (+/-/-/-/-)
  • BABA US: Alibaba upgrades it AI generated fashion model tool (+)
  • BABA US: Alibaba’s C2C platform Idle Fish to charge commissions in September (+)

Bunge Q2 Results Disappoint. Lower Margins Eclipse Strong Volume Growth.

By Amrutha Raj

  • Bunge’s Q2 results disappointed markets, leading to a huge selloff as both EPS and revenue missed analyst estimates.
  • Bunge’s agribusiness segment experienced margin compression despite surging volumes resulting in shrinking profits.
  • The refined and specialty oils segment faced headwinds from lower selling prices. Milling emerged as a bright spot, driven by cost optimization.

[Blue Lotus Daily]:ATAT US/TCOM US/1810 HK/AAPL US/1519 HK/ZTO US/XPEV US/2454 TT/QCOM US/LKNCY US

By Eric Wen

  • Consumer Industry Update:Hubei province takes the lead in implementing the home appliance replacement policy (+)
  • ATAT US/TCOM US:The year-on-year decline in hotel RevPAR narrowed in the second week of August, showing resilient in hotel demand.(+/+)
  • ATAT US/TCOM US: MCT plans to cut the prices of scenic spot tickets, bodes well to tourism demand. (+/+)

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Downgrading Discretionary to UW; 2000 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Downgrading Discretionary to UW; 2000, 2007, 2022 SPX Top Similarities Suggest Test of YTD Highs


Downgrading Discretionary to UW; 2000, 2007, 2022 SPX Top Similarities Suggest Test of YTD Highs

By Joe Jasper

  • We downgraded our long-term outlook to neutral last week (8/6/24 Compass) after being bullish since early-November 2023. We still believe the SPX is going through a 1-to 4-month consolidation phase.
  • It is possible the low for this consolidation has been established within our expected pullback zone of 5100-5191 that we discussed two weeks ago (7/30/24 Compass)
  • In terms of upside, the SPX could test its YTD highs or make a marginal new high, or could also see it roll over at the 5400 or 5585 resistances.

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Daily Brief ECM: WeRide IPO – Stiff Competition and Bleak Sentiment.  Premium Valuation Doesn’t Help and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • WeRide IPO – Stiff Competition and Bleak Sentiment.  Premium Valuation Doesn’t Help
  • WeRide IPO: High-Risk Venture Investment and Unproven Business Model
  • China Resources Beverage Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation


WeRide IPO – Stiff Competition and Bleak Sentiment.  Premium Valuation Doesn’t Help

By Clarence Chu

  • WeRide (WRD US) is looking to raise US$119m in its US IPO.
  • WeRide provides autonomous driving products and services from L2 to L4 of driving automation.
  • We had looked at the firm’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we discuss our thoughts on valuation.

WeRide IPO: High-Risk Venture Investment and Unproven Business Model

By Andrei Zakharov

  • WeRide, a pure-play autonomous driving company with operations in 7 countries, may raise up to $120M in upcoming IPO in the United States.
  • WeRide is expected to IPO this week. The company’s amended prospectus puts the price range per ADS at $15.50 to $18.50, implying a market cap of ~$4.6B at the midpoint.
  • The company has raised ~$1.4B in equity financing to date and was backed by Qiming Venture Partners and the venture capital fund of the Renault Nissan Mitsubishi Alliance, among others.

China Resources Beverage Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

  • China Resources Beverage is looking to raise US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • China Resources Beverage manufactures and sells packaged drinking water and RTD soft beverages in China.
  • In our earlier notes, we talked about the company’s past performance and undertook a peer comparison. In this note, we will look at valuations.

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Guangzhou R&F Properties and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Guangzhou R&F Properties, JSW Steel Ltd, Yuexiu Property
  • Energy Absolute: Band Aid Secured
  • Morning Views Asia: Bharti Airtel, China Vanke , China International Marine Containers A


Morning Views Asia: Guangzhou R&F Properties, JSW Steel Ltd, Yuexiu Property

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Energy Absolute: Band Aid Secured

By Warut Promboon

  • The EA 248A bond meeting on 9-August produced a consent from bondholders to extend the maturity as per the company’s request.
  • EA’s CFO announced that the company has secured 3-year credit facilities from 9 financial institutions and Asset Plus Securities Fund Management.
  • Barring any further negative news , we believe the maturity extension and the long-term bank credit facilities could lead TRIS to at least reverse EA’s credit rating outlook.

Morning Views Asia: Bharti Airtel, China Vanke , China International Marine Containers A

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Softbank (9984 JP): The NAV Discount High Offers an Investment Opportunity and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Softbank (9984 JP): The NAV Discount High Offers an Investment Opportunity
  • SK Square: Updated NAV Valuation Post Recent Share Price Decline
  • BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (August 12)
  • Asics (7936) | Raceing Ahead—But Can They Keep Pace?
  • GSMI PM/PLUS PM: Solid Growth in Q2 2024, >30% ROCE, Net Cash, >5% Div Yield
  • SM Entertainment: Share Cancellation and the Launch of a New British Band – Dear Alice
  • MMG Limited Releases Interim Results
  • Ball Corporation: A Story Of Growing Market Share in Strategic Geographies!
  • GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) – Product-Led Initiatives Driving Growth and Profitability
  • All Eyes on Jadar + Red 5’s Next Move


Softbank (9984 JP): The NAV Discount High Offers an Investment Opportunity

By Victor Galliano

  • The announcement of JPY500bn share buybacks is a positive for SoftBank group minority shareholders, and confirms the positive impact of the emergence of Elliott as an activist shareholder
  • The combination of the big weighting of Arm Holdings in the group’s equity value and the impact of the appreciating JPY has driven the NAV discount to very high levels
  • Much bad news seems priced in following the market turbulence; we remain positive on Softbank shares as they trade at a historically high 57%+ discount to the estimated NAV

SK Square: Updated NAV Valuation Post Recent Share Price Decline

By Douglas Kim

  • Our NAV analysis of SK Square suggests NAV of 15.6 trillion won or 115,605 won per share, representing 48% higher than current share price.
  • SK Square’s market cap is only 39% of SK Square’s stake in SK Hynix. SK Square’s share price has declined by 27% since reaching its recent peak on 11 July. 
  • SK Square had excellent results in 2Q 2024, driven by improving results of its affiliates including SK Hynix. 

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (August 12)

By David Mudd


Asics (7936) | Raceing Ahead—But Can They Keep Pace?

By Mark Chadwick

  • Strong Q2 performance: Asics delivered impressive profit growth and margin improvement, exceeding expectations with operating profit surging 119% YoY to 25 billion yen.
  • Market share gains: Asics continues outpacing Nike across key regions, with strong growth in Japan, Europe, China, and the US, driven by Sportstyle and Performance Running.
  • Bullish outlook, limited upside: Recent guidance revision and current FX rates cap near-term gains; stock trades at 19x NTM EV/EBIT with 15% upside to fair value.

GSMI PM/PLUS PM: Solid Growth in Q2 2024, >30% ROCE, Net Cash, >5% Div Yield

By Sameer Taneja


SM Entertainment: Share Cancellation and the Launch of a New British Band – Dear Alice

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the recent share cancellation at S.M. Entertainment, valuations, and the launch of a new British boy band in August 2024. 
  • Dear Alice boy band will start its promotion with the broadcast of “Made in Korea: The K-Pop Experience” on BBC One and BBC iPlayer on 17 August.
  • We are cautiously positive on Dear Alice band. Unlike most aspiring boy bands, Dear Alice has a HUGE advantage of launching the band on the BBC through a TV show.

MMG Limited Releases Interim Results

By Rikki Malik

  • In H1 2024 Profits and cash flow grew year over year
  • Overall, operations tracking in line with previous guidance with some cost savings
  • The key is the copper price which is closer to bottoming

Ball Corporation: A Story Of Growing Market Share in Strategic Geographies!

By Baptista Research

  • Ball Corporation reported its second quarter 2024 earnings, depicting a strategic navigation through a mixed market landscape, facing both headwinds and tailwinds across its various regional operations.
  • The company’s global beverage can shipments and aerosol shipments experienced growth rates of 2.8% and 5.6% respectively, indicating strong demand for sustainable aluminum packaging solutions—an area in which Ball continues to cement its leadership.
  • This growth, however, came amidst varying regional dynamics, from exceeding expectations in North America and EMEA to confronting challenges in South America, particularly due to economic volatility in Argentina.

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) – Product-Led Initiatives Driving Growth and Profitability

By Angus Mackintosh

  • GoTo (GOTO IJ)“‘s 2Q2024 reflected an ongoing focus on growth as the company invested in both its On Demand Services and its Fintech segments driven by its product-led initiatives.
  • The company’s growth was driven by the mass market, subscription products, and premium offerings such as express deliveries, which helped to boost both frequency and retention on the platform. 
  • GoTo will continue to benefit from the service fee from Tokopedia, which can be used to drive its core ODS and Fintech businesses. The stock overhang is a temporary drag.

All Eyes on Jadar + Red 5’s Next Move

By Money of Mine

  • Red Five sold 412 million shares acquired through the process of merging with Silver Lake, making a tidy profit of 30 million
  • The move gives Red Five nearly $500 million in cash and bullion with no debt, providing significant flexibility for the company
  • Len’s discussion in the Diggers presentation indicated that this was a medium-term strategy with potential action by June 2025 for evaluating and dealing with the shares

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


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Daily Brief Event-Driven: To Tender Or Not – Gauging The Future of Sun Corp (6736) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • To Tender Or Not – Gauging The Future of Sun Corp (6736)
  • HSCEI/HSTECH/HSIII Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes, Flow & Positioning
  • CPMC Holdings (906 HK): A Carefully Caveated Board Recommendation of Changping Industrial’s Offer
  • Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468.HK) – The Story Behind The “Hostile Offer”
  • Orora Ltd (ORA AU) Rejects A$2.55/Share Offer From Lone Star
  • Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep 24: Expected ADD and DEL Have 10+ Days to Trade
  • Tencent to Report 2Q FY24 Results (What Is Priced?), MSC Index Changes for Aug Rebalance Published
  • Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep 24: Announcement Soon; Updated Flow Expectations and Trade Idea
  • Orora (ORA AU): Lone Star’s Opportunistic A$2.55 Offer
  • DB Hitek: Buying a Golf Course Overshadows Corporate Value Up Efforts


To Tender Or Not – Gauging The Future of Sun Corp (6736)

By Travis Lundy

  • The revised/final True Wind Tender Offer for up to 19% of Sun Corp (6736 JP) ends this week. With the “excitement” the last two weeks, the SunCorp/CLBT ratio is higher.
  • The minimum threshold is relatively low. The Tender will most likely succeed with very high pro-ration. 
  • For those on the edge, I discuss possibilities on the back end. It will be less liquid, but that may not be bad.

HSCEI/HSTECH/HSIII Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes, Flow & Positioning

By Brian Freitas


CPMC Holdings (906 HK): A Carefully Caveated Board Recommendation of Changping Industrial’s Offer

By Arun George

  • The CPMC Holdings (906 HK) Board recommends that shareholders accept Changping Industrial’s HK$6.87 offer, which the IFA opines is fair and reasonable.
  • The Board’s carefully crafted and suitably caveated recommendation acknowledges that shares continue to trade through terms and ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH)’s HK$7.21 offer is higher but preconditional. 
  • Based on ORG’s shareholding/irrevocable and volume traded above terms, Changping Industrial’s offer has little chance of success. It remains a question of when, not if, Changping Industrial will bump.

Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468.HK) – The Story Behind The “Hostile Offer”

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The connection between Newjf and Greatview is deep. Newjf expressed an interest in acquiring Greatview early on, but the two parties didn’t reach an agreement. Greatview is not entirely “innocent”.
  • Newjf’s decision to forcibly acquire Greatview at this moment should be made after careful consideration. Mengniu may not necessarily oppose this merger. Mengniu is likely to take a neutral stance. 
  • Newjf’s Offer is attractive. In the absence of a more realistic action by Greatview to make a higher Offer, we advise investors not to walk away from Newjf’s Offer easily.

Orora Ltd (ORA AU) Rejects A$2.55/Share Offer From Lone Star

By David Blennerhassett

  • Sustainable packaging play Orora Ltd (ORA AU) has “received and has rejected an opportunistic, conditional and non-binding indicative proposal from Lone Star Fund“. 
  • The A$2.55/share Offer (less any dividends declared or payable), by way of a Scheme, was a  33.9% premium to last close. Orora was down 25% YTD, prior to the proposal.
  • Orora’s FY24 results will be released tomorrow. Expect more commentary on the rejection of Lone Star’s approach in the Q&A. 

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep 24: Expected ADD and DEL Have 10+ Days to Trade

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
  • There could be one index change during the September 2024 index rebal event. The official results will be announced after market close on 16th August 2024.
  • In this insight, we take a look at our latest flow expectations based on closing prices on Monday 12th August 2024.

Tencent to Report 2Q FY24 Results (What Is Priced?), MSC Index Changes for Aug Rebalance Published

By Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

  • Last night, MSC published index changes due at the August rebalance. There will be no changes to SA constituents.
  • The rebalance is set to take place at the end of the month on Friday the 30th.
  • Tomorrow after the HK close, Tencent is expected to report results for 2Q FY24.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep 24: Announcement Soon; Updated Flow Expectations and Trade Idea

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
  • The index changes and indicative weights for the September 2024 index rebal event is expected to be announced after market close on Friday 16th August 2024.
  • In this insight, we take a look at our latest expectations for capping flows based on current prices.

Orora (ORA AU): Lone Star’s Opportunistic A$2.55 Offer

By Arun George

  • In response to media speculation, Orora Ltd (ORA AU) disclosed that it had rejected Lone Star’s indicative non-binding proposal at A$2.55 per share, a 33.5% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • The offer is opportunistically timed to take advantage of the share price collapse precipitating from the profit warning on 2 April. 
  • The Lone Star offer is unattractive and could also draw other suitors. If Lone Star walks, the downside is low, as Orora’s valuation is undemanding compared to peer multiples.

DB Hitek: Buying a Golf Course Overshadows Corporate Value Up Efforts

By Douglas Kim

  • DB Hitek’s investment in a golf course operating company is a poor investment, one that destroys shareholder value.
  • Most investors would rather have DB Hitek increase shareholder returns through share buybacks/cancellations and dividends as well as invest in its core semiconductor business rather then buy a golf course. 
  • Given DB Inc’s lack of cash, there is a growing possibility that it will use the proceeds from selling its DB World shares to increase its stake in DB Hitek. 

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Daily Brief Crypto: Crypto Crisp: Slowly But Surely and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Crypto Crisp: Slowly But Surely


Crypto Crisp: Slowly But Surely

By Mads Eberhardt

  • As we noted in last week’s Crypto Crisp, we anticipated a gradual but steady recovery in the market to the levels seen before last weekend’s sharp decline.
  • This prediction has proven accurate so far, with some recovery since last week, though we are still far from fully regaining those levels.
  • We remain confident that it could take the rest of August to reach those levels again.

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