Category

Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Health Care: China Traditional Chinese Medicine, Sawai Group Holdings, Classys, Otsuka Holdings, Cencora , BB Biotech AG, Bayzed Health Group, Newron Pharmaceuticals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Something Is Brewing, but Nobody Knows Quite What
  • Sawai Group (4887) – BIGLY Buyback To “Drastically” Change Capital Structure
  • Merger Between Classys and Ilooda Likely to Reduce Local Competition
  • Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Label Expansion of Rexulti; 1H24 Guidance Revision; New Mid-Term Plan
  • Cencora Inc.: These Are The 6 Pivotal Factors Impacting Their Performance! – Financial Forecasts
  • BB Biotech – Positive trial news lifts two portfolio holdings
  • Pre-IPO Bayzed Health Group – Here Are the Concerns and Potential Risks
  • Newron Pharmaceuticals – Evenamide road to registration and beyond


China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Something Is Brewing, but Nobody Knows Quite What

By Arun George

  • On no news, China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) shares declined 12% today. We spoke to several readers to gauge the likely reasons for the fall.
  • The speculation is that the fall could be due to forced liquidation, Sinopharm’s new Chairman pulling the offer, the consortium unravelling, SAMR issues and Ping An blocking the deal. 
  • There is clearly news behind today’s fall, but none of the above rumours seem credible. The risk/reward is attractive as the upside (25% spread) outweighs the downside (18% to undisturbed).

Sawai Group (4887) – BIGLY Buyback To “Drastically” Change Capital Structure

By Travis Lundy

  • Two years ago, generic pharmaceuticals co Sawai Group Holdings (4887 JP) traded at 10x PER, 6% ROE, and far below book. 10mos ago the price got back to 1x PBR.
  • By then, their US sub had partly been put into “Current Assets AFS” as it was for sale. By Dec23, it was completely there. In Jan, a “business review” announcement.
  • The US business sale led to a loss, but growth this year, and a new MTMP in early June. Monday, we got a HUGE buyback announcement. Today, an 8+% pop.

Merger Between Classys and Ilooda Likely to Reduce Local Competition

By Douglas Kim

  • On 25 June, Classys (214150 KS) announced a merger with Ilooda (164060 KS). The merger ratio is set at 0.1405237 to 1 for Classys and Ilooda.
  • This merger aims to combine Classys’ expertise in high-intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) with Ilooda’s in micro-needle radio frequency (RF) and laser technologies.
  • We have a positive view of this merger between Classys and Ilooda. This merger is likely to reduce the overall competition in the aesthetics devices market in Korea.

Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Label Expansion of Rexulti; 1H24 Guidance Revision; New Mid-Term Plan

By Tina Banerjee

  • Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) announced FDA acceptance of indication expansion filing for Rexulti for the treatment of post-traumatic stress disorder. The FDA action date is February 8, 2025.
  • Due to impairment loss associated with termination of a pipeline asset, the company has reduced operating and net profit guidance for 1H24. However, 1H24 revenue guidance has been raised.
  • 2028 revenue is expected to reach ¥2.5T, an increase of ¥480B from 2023 results, that too after absorbing the negative impact of ~¥310B for loss of exclusivity of core drugs.

Cencora Inc.: These Are The 6 Pivotal Factors Impacting Their Performance! – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • Cencora, a leading healthcare solutions company, held a discussion reviewing its fiscal 2024 second-quarter results, highlighting both strengths and areas of concern as the organization continues to navigate a complex and evolving market landscape.
  • The transition announcement of Bob Mauch replacing Steven Collis as CEO presents both an opportunity for continuity and the challenge of strategic execution during leadership changes.
  • Revenue for the quarter increased by 8%, with an adjusted EPS growth of 9%.

BB Biotech – Positive trial news lifts two portfolio holdings

By Edison Investment Research

In our last BB Biotech (BION) review note, published in May 2024, we noted that the biotech sector was eagerly awaiting some key milestones, the most important being Alnylam Pharmaceuticals’ late-stage clinical trial of vutrisiran for patients with ATTR cardiomyopathy, a deadly heart disease. Alnylam, which comprised 4.3% of BION’s portfolio at end March 2024, released very positive, statistically significant, Phase III trial results this week. Assuming regulatory clearance, Alnylam expects that vutrisiran has the potential to become the new standard of care for the treatment of this disease, driving substantial future growth for the company. These results may have favourable implications for sentiment across the broader global biotech sector, and for Ionis Pharmaceuticals, BION’s largest portfolio position, which is also developing gene-silencing technology.


Pre-IPO Bayzed Health Group – Here Are the Concerns and Potential Risks

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Bayzed’s business model is similar to that of Hygeia and Inkon Life Technology. However, Bayzed’s profit margin is largely lagging behind peers. This makes us concerned about its future profitability.
  • The nationwide expansion of oncology hospitals is very challenging. Bayzed’s expansion pace may not be as fast as expected if it hopes to control the quality of expansion.
  • Due to “heavy asset” model, Bayzed would continue to face capital pressure.The latest valuation of Bayzed in 2023 is RMB2.625 billion. We think Bayzed’s valuation should be lower than peers.

Newron Pharmaceuticals – Evenamide road to registration and beyond

By Edison Investment Research

Newron hosted an investor day (25 June) featuring three key opinion leaders (KOLs) who highlighted evenamide’s unique mechanism at the site of pathology, offering durable responses and addressing unmet need despite the >40 available treatments for schizophrenia. Evenamide has a robust track record in clinical studies to date. Notably, the results of study 015 in treatment-resistant schizophrenia (TRS) saw 25% of patients achieve remission, and, more recently, the results from study 008A (poorly managed schizophrenia) confirmed the safety of evenamide as an add-on to current antipsychotics, as well as its effectiveness in a randomised, placebo-controlled setting. The KOLs commented on the potential benefit from earlier use of evenamide in patients with inadequate responses to current treatments. The reported data to date provide a strong foundation in addressing schizophrenia, in our view. Newron will prepare for the registrational trial (study 017), which, subject to securing a partnership deal, could launch by end-2024.


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Daily Brief Financials: Midea Real Estate Holding and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Midea Real Estate (3990 HK): Ex-In-Specie, The Rump Is Rich


Midea Real Estate (3990 HK): Ex-In-Specie, The Rump Is Rich

By David Blennerhassett

  • In an unusual move, property developer Midea Real Estate Holding (3990 HK)  announced the In-Specie distribution of its core ops, either in unlisted scrip, or HK$5.90/share in cash. 
  • As this is considered a “very substantial disposal“, a Scheme-like vote from independent shareholders is required at an EGM. And controlling shareholders – with 81.13% – are required to abstain. 
  • The EGM will be held on the 2 September, with the cash payment expected on (or before) the 18 October. The question is: what is the Rump worth?

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Daily Brief Consumer: Shankara Building Products L, Coupang , Coursera and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Shankara Building Products: Updated Forensic Analysis
  • Coupang Inc.: Artificial Intelligence Integration & 5 Major Growth Drivers
  • Coursera Inc.: What Are Their Latest Innovations in Learning Platforms and Technology?


Shankara Building Products: Updated Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • Shankara Building Products L (SHANKARA IN) is seeing a healthy topline growth in the last three years but this is accompanied with margin contractions.  
  • As far as the forensics are concerned, the company does not have grave auditor red flags like earlier but there are still some eye-catching checks.
  • Caution must be given to the finance costs of the company which look on a higher side vis-a-vis the borrowings. Moreover, inadequate provisioning might also expose out some receivables.

Coupang Inc.: Artificial Intelligence Integration & 5 Major Growth Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Coupang has commenced 2024 with a notable performance that underscores both strengths and areas in need of meticulous attention.
  • During the first quarter, Coupang reported a robust 28% year-over-year growth in revenues in constant currency terms, attributed primarily to increased spending across customer cohorts, including its longest-standing customers.
  • This points to successful customer retention and the appealing nature of its offerings.

Coursera Inc.: What Are Their Latest Innovations in Learning Platforms and Technology?

By Baptista Research

  • Coursera reported mixed financial results for the first quarter of 2024, reflecting progress on strategic initiatives but facing challenges in revenue growth, particularly within their consumer segment.
  • The company reported a 15% year-over-year increase in revenue, which, despite aligning with progression in its product offerings and user base growth, fell short of internal expectations primarily due to softness in North American paid learners.
  • On the positive side, Coursera continues to strengthen its platform with enhanced educational content and broader partnerships, evidenced by the addition of new professional certificates and degrees, and significant emphasis on integrating generative AI technologies into its offerings.

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Most Read: China Traditional Chinese Medicine, Timee Inc, Malaysia Airports Holdings, Core Lithium Ltd, Sawai Group Holdings, Hyundai Motor India , Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • TCM (570 HK): Sinopharm’s $4.60/Share Offer
  • China TCM (570.HK) Privatization Update – Investors May Need to Prepare for a Longer Wait
  • China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Evaluating Deal-Break Risks
  • China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Something Is Brewing, but Nobody Knows Quite What
  • Timee Pre-IPO – The Positives – Exponential Growth Since Inception
  • Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK)’s Offer: Buckle Up!
  • Tax-Loss Selling In Australia 2024 – Time To Reverse The Trade (7.2-8.6% Rtn in Two Months So Far)
  • Sawai Group (4887) – BIGLY Buyback To “Drastically” Change Capital Structure
  • Hyundai Motor India Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Not All Hunky-Dory
  • Quiddity Leaderboard MV J-Gold Miners Sep 24:  Mergers Mean Possible Up-And-Out DELETEs


TCM (570 HK): Sinopharm’s $4.60/Share Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • $4.60/Share. That’s the number – by way of a Scheme – that only matters. Below the recently rumoured $6/share, and $5.10/share a little over three years ago. Terms are final.
  • As widely expected, the Offeror is SASAC-managed China National Pharmaceutical Group Corporation (CNPGC), indirectly owning 32.46% in China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) (TCM) via Sinopharm Group Hongkong,
  • Optically, the Offer price appears light. But this should still get up. TCM is trading rich to peers. No other competing bidder will emerge. Expect regulatory pre-cons to be fast-tracked.

China TCM (570.HK) Privatization Update – Investors May Need to Prepare for a Longer Wait

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The approval/filing process of China TCM’s privatization is complicated and would take some time, but there’re almost no cases of disapproval. It also depends on the adequacy of materials submitted.
  • Due to the extension of time for the despatch of Scheme Document, this process would be delayed for more months.But we should receive clear information by October at the latest.
  • For arbitrageurs, China TCM is an investment opportunity of high success rate, which becomes more attractive if HK stock market is depressed.It’s better suited to idle funds considering potential risks/returns.

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Evaluating Deal-Break Risks

By Arun George

  • On 21 February, China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) announced a privatisation offer from the Sinopharm-led consortium at HK$4.60 per share, a 47.4% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • The wide gross spread (7.0%) reflects risks around the re-rating of peers, the slow pace of satisfying the pre-condition, the completion timetable and Ping An’s blocking stake. 
  • The key risk is the deal close timing due to the slow pace of regulatory approvals, which increases the chance that the vote will held after the August interim.   

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Something Is Brewing, but Nobody Knows Quite What

By Arun George

  • On no news, China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) shares declined 12% today. We spoke to several readers to gauge the likely reasons for the fall.
  • The speculation is that the fall could be due to forced liquidation, Sinopharm’s new Chairman pulling the offer, the consortium unravelling, SAMR issues and Ping An blocking the deal. 
  • There is clearly news behind today’s fall, but none of the above rumours seem credible. The risk/reward is attractive as the upside (25% spread) outweighs the downside (18% to undisturbed).

Timee Pre-IPO – The Positives – Exponential Growth Since Inception

By Clarence Chu

  • Timee Inc (215A JP) is looking to raise US$290m from its Japan IPO. The IPO will be a 100% secondary selldown by existing shareholders.
  • Timee operates an on-demand staffing platform that connects part-time jobseekers with businesses in Japan.
  • In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK)’s Offer: Buckle Up!

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 15th May, Khazanah Nasional, the EPF, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, and GIP, offered to buy shares not already owned in Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK) at RM11.00/share.
  • The premium to undisturbed appears reasonable. The price is a life-time high. The 90% acceptance hurdle was not insurmountable, and the consortium had the flexibility to lower the %. 
  • But the Offer is now facing unexpected political pushback, amid protests against the Israel-linked bid.

Tax-Loss Selling In Australia 2024 – Time To Reverse The Trade (7.2-8.6% Rtn in Two Months So Far)

By Travis Lundy

  • The original trade was discussed at end-April in Tax-Loss Selling in Australia 2024 – Historical Analysis and A Trade Basket then updated here and here
  • That has done OK. The LIQUID basket has delta neutral performance of +8.4% over 2mos; LIQUID+LESSLIQUID +7.2%; If one did a mixed basket (3x L+LL + 1x Illiquids) it’s +8.6%.
  • Now it is time to reverse the trade, buying the basket you were short, and running it against index for the next 6-8 weeks.

Sawai Group (4887) – BIGLY Buyback To “Drastically” Change Capital Structure

By Travis Lundy

  • Two years ago, generic pharmaceuticals co Sawai Group Holdings (4887 JP) traded at 10x PER, 6% ROE, and far below book. 10mos ago the price got back to 1x PBR.
  • By then, their US sub had partly been put into “Current Assets AFS” as it was for sale. By Dec23, it was completely there. In Jan, a “business review” announcement.
  • The US business sale led to a loss, but growth this year, and a new MTMP in early June. Monday, we got a HUGE buyback announcement. Today, an 8+% pop.

Hyundai Motor India Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Not All Hunky-Dory

By Sumeet Singh

  • Hyundai Motor (005385 KS) is looking to raise around US$3bn via listing its India unit, Hyundai Motor India. HMI is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Hyundai Motor Group.
  • HMI primarily manufactures and sells four-wheeler passenger vehicles and parts. Currently its vehicle portfolio includes 13 passenger vehicle models across sedans, hatchbacks, SUVs and battery EVs.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Quiddity Leaderboard MV J-Gold Miners Sep 24:  Mergers Mean Possible Up-And-Out DELETEs

By Travis Lundy

  • The MV J-Gold Miners index represents the performance small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
  • This index is reviewed semi-annually in March and September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs and our flow expectations for the index rebal event in September 2024.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: KRX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 21st): Sk Hynix and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 21st): Sk Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Hyundai Motor, Kia, Enchem


KRX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 21st): Sk Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Hyundai Motor, Kia, Enchem

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX Stocks as of Jun 21st which has an aggregated short interest worth USD5.8bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Sk Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Hyundai Motor, Kia, Enchem.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Yen Flirts with 161 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Yen Flirts with 161
  • What Is Cooking in Indian Textile Sector?
  • Japan Banks – Trading Gains and Cross-Shareholding Vary Widely Among Megabanks and Regionals
  • India Banks – Divergent Trends at Canara and Bandhan Fundamentally Support NIFTY Bank Rebalancing
  • #19 India Insight: Telcos Bid for 5G Spectrum, UltraTech Acquisition, Bajaj Auto Expands Capacity


Ohayo Japan | Yen Flirts with 161

By Mark Chadwick

  • The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.49%, driven by a 3.9% surge in Amazon, which hit a $2 trillion market cap milestone.
  • Japan wants companies to disclose the percentage of women in management roles, aiming to address gender disparities
  • Tourists in Japan spent an annualized 7.2 trillion yen ($45.1 billion) in early 2024, making it Japan’s second-largest export category

What Is Cooking in Indian Textile Sector?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Cotton consumption in the 2023-24 season is estimated at 307 lakh bales, making it one of the highest in the past decade.
  • Government is considering extending the PLI scheme to all garments, including cotton ones.
  • Minister Singh also emphasized the need for a comprehensive roadmap to elevate India’s textile market from $165 billion to $350 billion.

Japan Banks – Trading Gains and Cross-Shareholding Vary Widely Among Megabanks and Regionals

By Daniel Tabbush

  • We derive which of Japan’s banks may be most or least exposed to trading gains from divestment of cross-shareholdings.
  • Mizuho looks best of the megabanks and SMFG looks least good of the megabanks.
  • Japan Post Bank and SBI Shinsei may appear to have a high potential for selling domestic stocks, but we believe other drivers make them appear this way.

India Banks – Divergent Trends at Canara and Bandhan Fundamentally Support NIFTY Bank Rebalancing

By Daniel Tabbush


#19 India Insight: Telcos Bid for 5G Spectrum, UltraTech Acquisition, Bajaj Auto Expands Capacity

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Telcos Bid INR 11,000 Crore in First Day of 5G Spectrum Auction
  • UltraTech Cement Revises RAKWCT Acquisition from 31.6% to 25% Stake 
  • Bajaj Auto Achieves Over 7 Million Unit Production Capacity in FY24

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Daily Brief ECM: Timee Pre-IPO – The Positives – Exponential Growth Since Inception and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Timee Pre-IPO – The Positives – Exponential Growth Since Inception
  • Sanil Electric IPO – Strong Profitability Growth, but Highly Dependent on Its Top Customers
  • Mexican Airlines – Capacity Management to Drive Bumper 2024; Gains Beyond Difficult
  • Pre-IPO Bayzed Health Group – Here Are the Concerns and Potential Risks


Timee Pre-IPO – The Positives – Exponential Growth Since Inception

By Clarence Chu

  • Timee Inc (215A JP) is looking to raise US$290m from its Japan IPO. The IPO will be a 100% secondary selldown by existing shareholders.
  • Timee operates an on-demand staffing platform that connects part-time jobseekers with businesses in Japan.
  • In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Sanil Electric IPO – Strong Profitability Growth, but Highly Dependent on Its Top Customers

By Ethan Aw

  • Sanil Electric (062040 KS) is looking to raise up to US$164m in its Korean IPO.
  • Sanil Electric is a specialized company that manufactures and sells reactors, transformers, railway vehicle parts, and switchboards.  As an industrial transformer manufacturer, the company mainly manufactures power and distribution transformers.
  • In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.

Mexican Airlines – Capacity Management to Drive Bumper 2024; Gains Beyond Difficult

By Neil Glynn

  • We update forecasts for Mexican carriers Aeromexico, Viva Aerobus and Volaris following extremely strong 1Q results, driven by capacity management.
  • We expect each carrier to produce record performances in 2024 as pricing gains continue through the year.
  • However, we expect market conditions to normalise beyond 2024 and see further gains as a lot more difficult, particularly given drag from higher aircraft ownership costs.

Pre-IPO Bayzed Health Group – Here Are the Concerns and Potential Risks

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Bayzed’s business model is similar to that of Hygeia and Inkon Life Technology. However, Bayzed’s profit margin is largely lagging behind peers. This makes us concerned about its future profitability.
  • The nationwide expansion of oncology hospitals is very challenging. Bayzed’s expansion pace may not be as fast as expected if it hopes to control the quality of expansion.
  • Due to “heavy asset” model, Bayzed would continue to face capital pressure.The latest valuation of Bayzed in 2023 is RMB2.625 billion. We think Bayzed’s valuation should be lower than peers.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Something Is Brewing and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Something Is Brewing, but Nobody Knows Quite What
  • Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK)’s Offer: Buckle Up!
  • Tax-Loss Selling In Australia 2024 – Time To Reverse The Trade (7.2-8.6% Rtn in Two Months So Far)
  • Sawai Group (4887) – BIGLY Buyback To “Drastically” Change Capital Structure
  • Quiddity Leaderboard MV J-Gold Miners Sep 24:  Mergers Mean Possible Up-And-Out DELETEs
  • Redox IPO Lock-Up Expiry – Limited Liquidity Might Provide a Good Excuse to Sell
  • Midea Real Estate (3990 HK): Ex-In-Specie, The Rump Is Rich
  • Merger Between Classys and Ilooda Likely to Reduce Local Competition
  • Adnoc/Covestro: Fresh Takeover Negotiations and Valuation Scenarios


China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Something Is Brewing, but Nobody Knows Quite What

By Arun George

  • On no news, China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) shares declined 12% today. We spoke to several readers to gauge the likely reasons for the fall.
  • The speculation is that the fall could be due to forced liquidation, Sinopharm’s new Chairman pulling the offer, the consortium unravelling, SAMR issues and Ping An blocking the deal. 
  • There is clearly news behind today’s fall, but none of the above rumours seem credible. The risk/reward is attractive as the upside (25% spread) outweighs the downside (18% to undisturbed).

Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK)’s Offer: Buckle Up!

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 15th May, Khazanah Nasional, the EPF, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, and GIP, offered to buy shares not already owned in Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK) at RM11.00/share.
  • The premium to undisturbed appears reasonable. The price is a life-time high. The 90% acceptance hurdle was not insurmountable, and the consortium had the flexibility to lower the %. 
  • But the Offer is now facing unexpected political pushback, amid protests against the Israel-linked bid.

Tax-Loss Selling In Australia 2024 – Time To Reverse The Trade (7.2-8.6% Rtn in Two Months So Far)

By Travis Lundy

  • The original trade was discussed at end-April in Tax-Loss Selling in Australia 2024 – Historical Analysis and A Trade Basket then updated here and here
  • That has done OK. The LIQUID basket has delta neutral performance of +8.4% over 2mos; LIQUID+LESSLIQUID +7.2%; If one did a mixed basket (3x L+LL + 1x Illiquids) it’s +8.6%.
  • Now it is time to reverse the trade, buying the basket you were short, and running it against index for the next 6-8 weeks.

Sawai Group (4887) – BIGLY Buyback To “Drastically” Change Capital Structure

By Travis Lundy

  • Two years ago, generic pharmaceuticals co Sawai Group Holdings (4887 JP) traded at 10x PER, 6% ROE, and far below book. 10mos ago the price got back to 1x PBR.
  • By then, their US sub had partly been put into “Current Assets AFS” as it was for sale. By Dec23, it was completely there. In Jan, a “business review” announcement.
  • The US business sale led to a loss, but growth this year, and a new MTMP in early June. Monday, we got a HUGE buyback announcement. Today, an 8+% pop.

Quiddity Leaderboard MV J-Gold Miners Sep 24:  Mergers Mean Possible Up-And-Out DELETEs

By Travis Lundy

  • The MV J-Gold Miners index represents the performance small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
  • This index is reviewed semi-annually in March and September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs and our flow expectations for the index rebal event in September 2024.

Redox IPO Lock-Up Expiry – Limited Liquidity Might Provide a Good Excuse to Sell

By Sumeet Singh

  • Redox (RDX AU), a chemical and ingredients distributor, raised US$270m in its IPO in Jun 2023. Some of its founding family shareholders will be released from their IPO lockup soon.
  • Redox primarily serves the ANZ market, and it has a presence in Malaysia and the US. It is one of the largest chemicals and ingredients distributors in Australia.
  • In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.

Midea Real Estate (3990 HK): Ex-In-Specie, The Rump Is Rich

By David Blennerhassett

  • In an unusual move, property developer Midea Real Estate Holding (3990 HK)  announced the In-Specie distribution of its core ops, either in unlisted scrip, or HK$5.90/share in cash. 
  • As this is considered a “very substantial disposal“, a Scheme-like vote from independent shareholders is required at an EGM. And controlling shareholders – with 81.13% – are required to abstain. 
  • The EGM will be held on the 2 September, with the cash payment expected on (or before) the 18 October. The question is: what is the Rump worth?

Merger Between Classys and Ilooda Likely to Reduce Local Competition

By Douglas Kim

  • On 25 June, Classys (214150 KS) announced a merger with Ilooda (164060 KS). The merger ratio is set at 0.1405237 to 1 for Classys and Ilooda.
  • This merger aims to combine Classys’ expertise in high-intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) with Ilooda’s in micro-needle radio frequency (RF) and laser technologies.
  • We have a positive view of this merger between Classys and Ilooda. This merger is likely to reduce the overall competition in the aesthetics devices market in Korea.

Adnoc/Covestro: Fresh Takeover Negotiations and Valuation Scenarios

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • On 24 June, Covestro AG (1COV GR) confirmed it has decided to enter into concrete negotiations with ADNOC regarding a potential transaction at an indicative €62/share (9.6x EV/fwd NTM EBITDA).
  • Covestro is trading at 8x (vs. 6.5x median of peers). To justify €70/share (sought last December), Covestro should overdeliver, but analysts and market are somehow skeptical about that.
  • Considering a takeout price of €62, gross spread is 12.1% and the shares are pricing a 32.5% probability of deal completion.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Tencent/Netease: One Game Approval for Tencent in June and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Tencent/Netease: One Game Approval for Tencent in June
  • Shankara Building Products: Updated Forensic Analysis
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (27-Jun-2024): AI advances tech and industry’s potential.
  • Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Label Expansion of Rexulti; 1H24 Guidance Revision; New Mid-Term Plan
  • Broadcom Inc: How Are They Expanding AI and Networking Technologies! – Major Drivers
  • Warner Bros. Discovery Inc.: A Growth Story Around Strategic Partnerships and Global Expansion! – Major Drivers
  • Zuiko Corp (6279 JP): Q1 FY02/25 flash update
  • Coupang Inc.: Artificial Intelligence Integration & 5 Major Growth Drivers
  • Clean Harbors Inc.: Enhancing Environmental Services Through Expanded Solutions & PFAS Regulation Response! – Major Drivers
  • BB Biotech – Positive trial news lifts two portfolio holdings


Tencent/Netease: One Game Approval for Tencent in June

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • China announced game approval for the June batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.
  • The pace of China game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening, though the number of approvals appears to be slower than March.
  • Of companies that we are monitoring, Tencent and iDreamSky clinched one approval each.

Shankara Building Products: Updated Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • Shankara Building Products L (SHANKARA IN) is seeing a healthy topline growth in the last three years but this is accompanied with margin contractions.  
  • As far as the forensics are concerned, the company does not have grave auditor red flags like earlier but there are still some eye-catching checks.
  • Caution must be given to the finance costs of the company which look on a higher side vis-a-vis the borrowings. Moreover, inadequate provisioning might also expose out some receivables.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (27-Jun-2024): AI advances tech and industry’s potential.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Generative AI is driving hardware advancements and creating new industrial prospects, with Synopsys offering automation and analytics tools for chipmaking facilities in India.
  • Cultivating global cash cows like CHPT and Chief Telecom to enhance revenue streams, Volkswagen is investing $5 billion in Rivian to create an EV software joint venture, while Poland’s CEZAMAT boosts photonics and chip goals in Europe.
  • Indian electronic component production value is set to increase 5x by 2030, but slow data center expansion may affect chip sales, according to Nvidia CEO. SiFive also unveils 4th-gen essential product line to drive innovation in embedded applications.

Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Label Expansion of Rexulti; 1H24 Guidance Revision; New Mid-Term Plan

By Tina Banerjee

  • Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) announced FDA acceptance of indication expansion filing for Rexulti for the treatment of post-traumatic stress disorder. The FDA action date is February 8, 2025.
  • Due to impairment loss associated with termination of a pipeline asset, the company has reduced operating and net profit guidance for 1H24. However, 1H24 revenue guidance has been raised.
  • 2028 revenue is expected to reach ¥2.5T, an increase of ¥480B from 2023 results, that too after absorbing the negative impact of ~¥310B for loss of exclusivity of core drugs.

Broadcom Inc: How Are They Expanding AI and Networking Technologies! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Broadcom Inc. presented its second quarter fiscal year 2024 financial results, underscoring notable growth and strategic advancements, particularly through its semiconductor and software segments.
  • The revenue recorded was $12.5 billion, a substantial 43% increase year-on-year, buoyed significantly by the inclusion of a full quarter’s financial contribution from VMware.
  • Excluding this factor, revenue was up 12% from the previous year.

Warner Bros. Discovery Inc.: A Growth Story Around Strategic Partnerships and Global Expansion! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Warner Bros. Discovery commenced the first quarter of 2024 with a focus on adjusting its operations for future sustainability in an industry marked by rapid disruption due to technological advancements.
  • The company acknowledges the transformative necessities dictated by changing consumer behaviors and the technological landscape.
  • On a positive note, Warner Bros. Discovery reported an encouraging increase in subscriber growth for its streaming service, Max, which saw an addition of 2 million subscribers across various regions, pushing its total Direct-to-Consumer (D2C) subscriber count towards 100 million.

Zuiko Corp (6279 JP): Q1 FY02/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue: JPY3.9bn (-4.1% YoY); Operating loss: JPY133mn; Recurring loss: JPY39mn; Net loss: JPY759mn.
  • Revenue by product type: Adult diaper machinery JPY887mn (-48.8% YoY), Sanitary napkin machinery JPY1.1bn (+82.7% YoY).
  • Gross profit margin rose to 18.0% from 12.9%; Net income improved due to JPY534mn gain on sale of securities.

Coupang Inc.: Artificial Intelligence Integration & 5 Major Growth Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Coupang has commenced 2024 with a notable performance that underscores both strengths and areas in need of meticulous attention.
  • During the first quarter, Coupang reported a robust 28% year-over-year growth in revenues in constant currency terms, attributed primarily to increased spending across customer cohorts, including its longest-standing customers.
  • This points to successful customer retention and the appealing nature of its offerings.

Clean Harbors Inc.: Enhancing Environmental Services Through Expanded Solutions & PFAS Regulation Response! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Clean Harbors reported a firm start to 2024, with various elements of the business performing strongly, though challenges linger primarily in pricing environments affecting some segments.
  • The Environment Services (ES) division, a pivotal part of the company’s operations, showcased an impressive 10% revenue increase, bolstered by both organic growth and strategic mergers, including recent acquisitions like Thompson and HEPACO.
  • With a particular strength displayed in technical services which saw an 11% spike driven by high operation volumes, ES stands out as a robust contributor to Clean Harbors’ overall financial health.

BB Biotech – Positive trial news lifts two portfolio holdings

By Edison Investment Research

In our last BB Biotech (BION) review note, published in May 2024, we noted that the biotech sector was eagerly awaiting some key milestones, the most important being Alnylam Pharmaceuticals’ late-stage clinical trial of vutrisiran for patients with ATTR cardiomyopathy, a deadly heart disease. Alnylam, which comprised 4.3% of BION’s portfolio at end March 2024, released very positive, statistically significant, Phase III trial results this week. Assuming regulatory clearance, Alnylam expects that vutrisiran has the potential to become the new standard of care for the treatment of this disease, driving substantial future growth for the company. These results may have favourable implications for sentiment across the broader global biotech sector, and for Ionis Pharmaceuticals, BION’s largest portfolio position, which is also developing gene-silencing technology.


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Daily Brief Macro: CX Daily: China Debates Pros and Cons of Open-Source AI Models and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • CX Daily: China Debates Pros and Cons of Open-Source AI Models


CX Daily: China Debates Pros and Cons of Open-Source AI Models

By Caixin Global

  • When discussing the development of large language models (LLMs) Zhou Hongyi, CEO of Chinese cybersecurity firm 360 Security Technology Inc.
  • , dismissed claims that open-source LLMs are inferior to closed-source ones, calling such assertions “nonsense.
  • ” Zhou’s comments, which were delivered during the 27th Harvard College China Forum in April, were widely seen as a response to Baidu Inc.

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