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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | First Half Done and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | First Half Done
  • China Slams EU’s EV Anti-Subsidy Probe as ‘Disregarding’ WTO Rules
  • Most of China’s Top Auto Suppliers Are Expanding Into Europe, Report Shows


Ohayo Japan | First Half Done

By Mark Chadwick

  • U.S. stocks dipped on Friday as investors processed economic data signaling slowing inflation. Nike down 20%. 
  • Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications and KDDI will collaborate on developing generative AI
  • NTT DATA plans to launch multiple satellites by 2026 to create a space-based observation network, enhancing disaster monitoring and national security

China Slams EU’s EV Anti-Subsidy Probe as ‘Disregarding’ WTO Rules

By Caixin Global

  • China has slammed the European Commission for requiring Chinese electric-vehicle (EV) and battery makers to provide additional information for its anti-subsidy probe as beyond what is required, saying that its requirements “undermine fair competition” and “disregard” World Trade Organization (WTO) rules.
  • “The types, scope and amount of information that the European Commission has asked from Chinese companies are unprecedented, far exceeding the needs of the anti-subsidy investigation,” said He Yadong, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce (MOC), at a Thursday media briefing.
  • The information requested included detailed battery components and formulation, as well as the production costs of EVs, purchase information for all EV parts and raw materials, sales channels and pricing methods, and information on customers in Europe, He said.

Most of China’s Top Auto Suppliers Are Expanding Into Europe, Report Shows

By Caixin Global

  • Chinese suppliers of both auto hardware and software are following their carmaking clients overseas, particularly focusing on Europe and North America, a new report showed.
  • The suppliers have several motivations, such as being more responsive to their Chinese clients with assembly plants abroad, reducing shipping costs, avoiding tariffs and localizing their operations, according to industry data compiled by Cyzone research center and a subsidiary of China Automotive Technology and Research Center Co. Ltd.
  • The report looked at 70 “outstanding” Chinese auto parts and software suppliers that were expanding overseas as of June.

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Daily Brief ECM: Timee Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Stronger Growth Has Allowed It to Close the Margin Gap and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Timee Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Stronger Growth Has Allowed It to Close the Margin Gap
  • ECM Weekly (1st July 2024)-Aisin, Mitsui, Japan Hotel, Allied Blenders, Webtoon, Hyundai India


Timee Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Stronger Growth Has Allowed It to Close the Margin Gap

By Clarence Chu

  • Timee Inc (215A JP) is looking to raise US$290m from its Japan IPO. The IPO will be a 100% secondary selldown by existing shareholders.
  • Timee operates an on-demand staffing platform that connects part-time jobseekers with businesses in Japan. 
  • In an earlier note, we looked at the firm’s past performance. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison.

ECM Weekly (1st July 2024)-Aisin, Mitsui, Japan Hotel, Allied Blenders, Webtoon, Hyundai India

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
  • On the IPO front, we looked at the upcoming mega-listing for Hyundai Motor India.
  • On the placement front, the week was dominated by the cross-shareholding unwinds in Aisin (7259 JP) and Mitsui & Co Ltd (8031 JP)

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: China Water Affairs and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: China Water Affairs, Health And Happiness (H&H)


Morning Views Asia: China Water Affairs, Health And Happiness (H&H)

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Rangebound; UMC Hits Upper End of Range and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Rangebound; UMC Hits Upper End of Range
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.30) – TCM Companies Witness Soaring Costs, Rising Stars in ADC, 1515.HK
  • Selamat Sempurna (SMSM IJ) – Filter Champion
  • India Channel Insight | Bandhan Bank (BANDHAN IN) | The Other Shoe to Drop
  • Nuvama: Continues to Deliver Strong
  • PC Monitor: Growth Expectations Have Increased Recently; HPE Signals Enterprise AI Acceleration
  • China Consumption Weekly (1 Jul 2024): Douyin, Green Tea, Alibaba, Tencent, Haidilao
  • Perfect Medical (1830 HK): Resilient FY24 And 12.5% Trailing Dividend Yield
  • Delfi Ltd (DELFI.SI) – Friday, Mar 29, 2024
  • Another Debt Downgrade


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Rangebound; UMC Hits Upper End of Range

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +16.7% Premium, Has Remained Rangebound; Watching for Over 20% or Under 15%
  • UMC: +2% Premium, Upper End of Trading Range, Can Consider Shorting
  • ASE: +9.9% Premium; Spread Could Have Further Room to Bounce Higher

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.30) – TCM Companies Witness Soaring Costs, Rising Stars in ADC, 1515.HK

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Investors should be aware of the increasing prices of TCM raw materials, which could lead to fluctuations in profit margins of TCM companies. Investors should prepare for these potential impacts.
  • After years of “fast-follow”, we’ve finally seen products from Chinese pharmaceutical companies stand at the center of the stage for the first time in the new generation of ADC.
  • China Resources Medical’s profitability outlook is not promising due to issues within the Chinese healthcare system. The bottom line is P/B above 1 and P/E above 10x.

Selamat Sempurna (SMSM IJ) – Filter Champion

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Selamat Sempurna is one of the most interesting industrial companies in Indonesia, with a leading market share in filters for auto and heavy equipment markets in Indonesia and overseas.
  • 1Q2024 was impacted by a seasonal slowdow ahead of Lebaran and a decline in sales to Russia, offset by strong US sales. Management remains confident in the outlook for FY2024.
  • Selamat Sempurna will continue to benefit from growth in the filter replacement market for both auto and heavy equipment markets and already has exposure to EVs. Valuations are attractive. 

India Channel Insight | Bandhan Bank (BANDHAN IN) | The Other Shoe to Drop

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • While the street is getting excited about Bandhan Bank (assuming a change in management, end of a bad asset cycle, and lower valuations), we are not.
  • We believe the next set of problems for the bank are yet to be unleashed, and a change in management will only intensify the challenges ahead.
  • We believe the worst is yet to come for the bank. 

Nuvama: Continues to Deliver Strong

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • Nuvama Wealth Management (“Nuvama”)  continues to report strong growth with Q4FY24 revenue at INR 596cr, a growth of 35% YoY. Q4FY24 PAT grew 57% YoY to reach INR 181cr. 
  • Overall, FY24 revenue and PAT ended strong at INR 2063cr (YoY growth of 31%) and INR 597cr (YoY growth of 62%), respectively.
  • FY24 growth was led by the capital markets (revenue grew 64% YoY) segment, aided by favorable cycle and market-share gains. Wealth and asset management segments are also scaling up well.

PC Monitor: Growth Expectations Have Increased Recently; HPE Signals Enterprise AI Acceleration

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • PC & Server solutions names have fallen moderately from highs in June, however enterprise server company HPE soared 20% on AI strength.
  • Despite the market pullback from highs, we note that 2025E forward growth expectations have generally increased for the universe over the last month.
  • Latest Taiwan PC company revenues indicate healthy growth and HPE’s management guided for Enterprise AI orders to accelerate.

China Consumption Weekly (1 Jul 2024): Douyin, Green Tea, Alibaba, Tencent, Haidilao

By Ming Lu

  • Douyin’ GMV increased by 300% YoY in the “June 18” sales season.
  • The revenue of a pre-IPO restaurant chain, Green Tea, increased by 55% in 2023.
  • Alibaba’s supermarket chain, Freshippo, opened 12 new stores in June.

Perfect Medical (1830 HK): Resilient FY24 And 12.5% Trailing Dividend Yield

By Sameer Taneja

  • Perfect Medical Health (1830 HK) reported flat revenue/profit growth for FY24 due to a weak Q4 that plagued the entire HK consumer space. H2FY24  revenue/profit growth was -6.3%/-12.5%
  • The company paid a generous dividend of 31.5 cents for FY24 (vs. 30.0 cents), resulting in a 12.5% dividend yield.
  • We will follow up with more details after the earnings call and presentation. 

Delfi Ltd (DELFI.SI) – Friday, Mar 29, 2024

By Value Investors Club

Key points

  • Delfi, the leading chocolate company in Indonesia, is experiencing challenges due to rising cocoa prices
  • Despite a decrease in share price, analysts remain optimistic about Delfi’s future prospects
  • The company’s management team is implementing strategic measures to protect profit margins and improve financial performance, with initiatives planned for 2024 expected to mitigate the impact of cocoa price increases

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Another Debt Downgrade

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Moody’s Ratings downgraded Grifols’ corporate family rating to B3 from B2, with a stable outlook, due to high leverage, and complex, opaque corporate governance involving related-party transactions.
  • Moody’s considers Grifols’s liquidity to still be “fragile,” noting that “while adequate for the next 12 months, beyond that, maintaining adequate liquidity will depend on returning to positive FCF generation.
  • For risk-tolerant investors, the current low share price could present a long-term buying opportunity if Grifols successfully executes its strategic initiatives.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: TIP Taiwan Technology Dividend Highlight Index Rebalance: 12 Changes & US$4bn Round-Trip Trade and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • TIP Taiwan Technology Dividend Highlight Index Rebalance: 12 Changes & US$4bn Round-Trip Trade
  • Merger Arb Mondays (01 Jul) – Henlius, China TCM, GA Pack, CPMC, Asia Cement, Great Eastern
  • (Mostly) Asia M&A, June 2024: Fancl, Capitol Health, Infocom,Jeisys Medical, Nagatanien, Henlius Bio
  • Potential Recurrence of Local Flow Trade Patterns in Hyundai Glovis’s Stock Dividend Event
  • EQD / NSE Vol Update / IVs Rise in Conjunction with Equities Counter to Regular Spot-Vol Correlation


TIP Taiwan Technology Dividend Highlight Index Rebalance: 12 Changes & US$4bn Round-Trip Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 12 changes for the TIP Taiwan Technology Dividend Highlight Index in June/July. The Fuh Hwa Taiwan Technology Dividend Highlight ETF (00929 TW) has an AUM of US$7.16bn.
  • One-Way turnover is estimated at 35% and that will result in a round-trip trade of TWD 134.7bn (US$4.1bn). There are 8 stocks that could have over 5x ADV to trade.
  • The ETF started rebalancing their portfolio on Friday and will continue to trade the stock over the next 7 trading days.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, June 2024: Fancl, Capitol Health, Infocom,Jeisys Medical, Nagatanien, Henlius Bio

By David Blennerhassett

  • For the month of June 2024, 8 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$6bn.
  • The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in June was ~52%. The average premium YTD is ~47%
  • This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.

Potential Recurrence of Local Flow Trade Patterns in Hyundai Glovis’s Stock Dividend Event

By Sanghyun Park

  • Finding a trading entry point during a stock dividend event is tough, but locally, stock prices often rise post-ex-rights date and stabilize after listing, over 70% of the time.
  • There’s speculation that local flow trading, mainly driven by local prop traders, might target this pattern in Glovis’s stock dividend as well.
  • While I wouldn’t recommend banking on this probabilistic trading setup, it’s important to be aware that this could significantly impact stock movements from the ex-rights date to the listing date.

EQD / NSE Vol Update / IVs Rise in Conjunction with Equities Counter to Regular Spot-Vol Correlation

By Sankalp Singh

  • Implied Volatilities (IVs) continued to rise as the underlying index tried to break above critical resistance – marking a break-down of usual spot-vol correlations.
  • Vol surface smile & skew characteristics held steady at the 25-Delta point of curve, while dynamics at the 10-Delta zone extended further.
  • Nifty50 Back-end Term Structure is in Backwardation as Monthly options enjoy markups based on July-end Indian Budget release.   

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Daily Brief Macro: Union Budget 2024- What to Expect? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Union Budget 2024- What to Expect?
  • PBoC Examines Overhaul of Monetary Policy Framework, but Quantitative Easing Appears Unlikely
  • How Much Is Left in the Bulls’ Gas Tank?
  • Q2 Earnings Season Preview


Union Budget 2024- What to Expect?

By Nitin Mangal

  • All eyes will be on the upcoming Union Budget 2024 in July, marking the first of Modi Government 3.0.
  • Job creation, tackling agriculture woes including farmers income and sustaining expenditure on infra are expected to be the core deliverables.
  • Moreover, fiscal deficit is expected to continue its improvement run. Capital gains tax would not be touched but GST network could broaden.

PBoC Examines Overhaul of Monetary Policy Framework, but Quantitative Easing Appears Unlikely

By Said Desaque

  • The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is studying the efficacy of buying and selling government bonds in the secondary market for liquidity management as opposed to introducing quantitative easing (QE).
  • China’s government bond market has increased significantly in size since 2008, but the PBoC has not, unlike the Fed, bought sovereign debt in over two decades.
  • Monetary policy conduct could be streamlined as the number of policy benchmark lending rates is reduced. Hopes of aggressive QE by the PBoC are far-fetched given its balance sheet structure.

How Much Is Left in the Bulls’ Gas Tank?

By Cam Hui

  • The stock market advance in 2024 has been impressive, but prices can continue to rise.
  • Market internals have become frothy and overbought in the AI-related leadership, but the rest of the market is showing signs of recovery that’s indicative of a leadership rotation.
  • Our base-case scenario calls for some near-term choppiness, followed by further gains into year-end.

Q2 Earnings Season Preview

By Cam Hui

  • Investors are facing a number of challenges as they approach Q2 earnings season. 
  • Bottom-Up EPS estimate revisions are strong, top-down economic releases have been weak. As well, forward P/E valuations are elevated
  • We interpret these conditions as the characteristics of a mid-cycle expansion.

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Daily Brief Australia: Telix Pharmaceuticals, Actinogen Medical and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 24 Rebal: Altium to Trigger Two Intra-Review Replacements in July
  • Actinogen Medical – Publication of XanADu biomarker analysis


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 24 Rebal: Altium to Trigger Two Intra-Review Replacements in July

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the September 2024 index rebal event.
  • In July 2024, a couple of important Australian M&A deals could close and one of them could trigger intra-review additions for ASX 100 and ASX 200.
  • Separately, we see one ASX 100 change and one ASX 200 change during the September 2024 rebalance. For ASX 300, there could be 13 ADDs and 6 DELs.

Actinogen Medical – Publication of XanADu biomarker analysis

By Edison Investment Research

Actinogen Medical announced that the prespecified biomarker subset analyses on stored plasma samples (n=72) from its previous Phase IIa XanADu study (n=185) in patients with mild Alzheimer’s disease (AD) has been published in the peer-reviewed Journal of Alzheimer’s Disease (JAD). As reported in Q422, patients with elevated baseline phosphorylated Tau-181 (pTau-181) protein (at least 6.74pg/mL), representing 34 patients (16 on Xanamem 10mg daily, 18 on placebo), showed a 0.6 mean difference (effect size) on the CDR-SB scale at 12 weeks between the placebo and treatment arms, representing a 60% relative reduction in progression. This suggests that Xanamem’s potential cognitive or disease-slowing effects may be sensitively detected by the CDR-SB endpoint, which is one of the critical endpoints in the ongoing XanaMIA Phase IIb trial (planned n=220) enrolling participants with cognitive impairment (CI) in mild to moderate AD as confirmed through elevated baseline p-Tau181. Actinogen’s next milestone will be results, expected in early Q3 CY24, from its Phase IIa XanaCIDD study of Xanamem in patients with CI and major depressive disorder.


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Daily Brief South Korea: Lunit , Sanil Electric, SK Bioscience and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 55 Companies in Korea in July 2024
  • Sanil Electric IPO: The Bull Case
  • SK Bioscience (302440 KS): Acquiring Majority Stake in IDT Biologika- A Step Toward ‘Globalization’


End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 55 Companies in Korea in July 2024

By Douglas Kim

  • We discuss the end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 55 stocks in Korea in July 2024, among which 6 are in KOSPI and 49 are in KOSDAQ.
  • These 55 stocks on average could be subject to further selling pressures in July and could underperform relative to the market.
  • The top three market cap stocks including those of which at least 1% of outstanding shares could be sold in July include Lunit, Mezzion Pharma, and DS Dansuk.

Sanil Electric IPO: The Bull Case

By Arun George

  • Sanil Electric (062040 KS), a Korean industrial transformer manufacturer, is seeking to raise up to US$165 million.    
  • The IPO is a pure primary raise of 7.6 million shares at an IPO price range of KRW24,000-30,000. Book building will run from 9 to 15 July.
  • The bull case rests on US-led rapid revenue growth, high barriers to entry, good revenue visibility, improving margins, top-quartile margin performance and modest leverage.

SK Bioscience (302440 KS): Acquiring Majority Stake in IDT Biologika- A Step Toward ‘Globalization’

By Tina Banerjee

  • SK Bioscience (302440 KS) secures 60% stake in IDT Biologika, a global CDMO company with state-of-the-art manufacturing facilities in Germany, for KRW339B ($244M). The valuation seems reasonable.
  • The transaction paves the way for SK bioscience to strengthen its global presence, notably in Europe and the U.S., and to diversify its business by expanding into bulk drug substances.
  • Based on the existing CDMO contracts, IDT Biologika’s outlook remains positive. SK bioscience aims to more than double its revenue and stabilize operating profit margins at 20%+.

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Daily Brief Singapore: MoneyHero and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • MoneyHero – Encouraging start to FY24


MoneyHero – Encouraging start to FY24

By Edison Investment Research

MoneyHero has made a promising start to FY24, with robust levels of revenue growth in Q124 across several core markets and all product verticals. Investment in the platform has resulted in improved application conversion rates, while several senior hires have been made, including the new CFO, Hao Qian, and a head of AI. Although the EBITDA loss widened in the quarter, management expects profitability to improve to a break-even run rate by end FY24. Our estimates are unchanged, anticipating sequential quarterly revenue growth as management accelerates investment in its user base and benefits from operational leverage.


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Daily Brief Indonesia: PT Metrodata Electronics and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • PT Metrodata Electronics (MTDL IJ) – A Future in AI Implementation


PT Metrodata Electronics (MTDL IJ) – A Future in AI Implementation

By Angus Mackintosh

  • PT Metrodata Electronics (MTDL IJ) saw a strong rebound in 1Q2024 for its distribution business, especially for telco products, which partially offset the slower growth in solutions & consulting. 
  • Solutions&consulting saw slow growth due to some delays over projects due to political uncertainty ahead of the election but it did have the support of recurrent income from software.
  • PT Metrodata Electronics should see a recovery in solutions & consulting in 2H2024, with increasing demand from AI-related projects, which will further drive future growth. Valuations remain attractive.

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