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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Japan: Keisei Electric Railway Co, Aisin , Toenec Corp, Mitsubishi Motors, Toyo Corp, Carta Holdings, Inc. and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Keisei Electric Investor Activism Update: The Vote Count Could Shake Keisei’s Board
  • Aisin (7259) | Nine Months Ago
  • Toenec (1946 JP) Offering – Nearly $50mm on SmallCap Utility Infra Co as Chubu EPCO Sells Down
  • Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2024: Final Expectations
  • Toyo Corporation (8151 JP) – Initiating Coverage
  • 3Q FOLLOW-UP – Carta Holdings (3688 JP)


Keisei Electric Investor Activism Update: The Vote Count Could Shake Keisei’s Board

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Palliser’s proposal failed to meet the challenging two-thirds threshold at the AGM. Given the ownership landscape, this outcome was anticipated.
  • Palliser nearing 50% approval at Keisei’s AGM could signify a triumph, potentially leading to significant pressure on management and a positive shift in share price performance.
  • Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)‘s valuation, now attractively low post a 33% drop and with a potential OP guidance hike, presents minimal downside at a 26.0x EV/OP multiple.

Aisin (7259) | Nine Months Ago

By Mark Chadwick

  • Nine months have passed since Aisin announced a transformative MTP. Investors remain sceptical that it will deliver higher returns. 
  • Improving margins on hybrid transmissions, new products for BEVs and better capital allocation could deliver 70% upside for investors.
  • The key risk is the assumption that operating margins can rise above 8% versus the historical average of 5%. 

Toenec (1946 JP) Offering – Nearly $50mm on SmallCap Utility Infra Co as Chubu EPCO Sells Down

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, Toenec Corp (1946 JP) – an integrated facilities company 50+% owned by Chubu Electric Power Co (9502 JP) announced Chubu EPCO would sell down 7.7% to go to 43%+.
  • This is surprising. It suggests there are more selldowns to come. It’s also “big” at 88 days of ADV and about 26% of Max Real World Float (85% retail).
  • This is an odd sell-down. Chubu EPCO obviously doesn’t want to buy it in. That means overhang for years.

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2024: Final Expectations

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents.
  • A periodic review is conducted by the Index provider in August every year. The reference period for the August 2024 index rebal event is now complete.
  • In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations for ADDs and DELs.

Toyo Corporation (8151 JP) – Initiating Coverage

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Toyo Corporation is a trading company specializing in measurement technologies.
  • With several initiatives and strong structural demand in the electric vehicles space in particular, we expect the company to achieve higher revenue and profitability.
  • Higher recurring revenue and proprietary product ratios will support a margin improvement in the future. 

3Q FOLLOW-UP – Carta Holdings (3688 JP)

By Sessa Investment Research

  • Operating profit for 1Q (Jan-Mar) FY2024/12 was ¥985 mn, already achieving 65.7% of progress in 1Q against the full-year target.
  • Reason: a steady growth in programmatic advertising business including the collaboration business with Dentsu and the drastic cost reduction implemented in 2023 helped, while the bottoming out of reservation-based advertising business was not yet recognized in 1Q FY2024/12.
  • In addition, the phasing out of the use of third-party Cookies in Google Chrome, which was included in the initial performance plan as a downside risk, has been postponed to 2025 or later. 

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Daily Brief India: Precot and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Precot Limited: A Niche Technical Textile Player


Precot Limited: A Niche Technical Textile Player

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Niche Player in Cotton yarn spinning and Technical Textile with decadal experience.
  • Expansion in Technical Textile during FY24 will significantly improve the margin profile and revenue for the company.
  • Peer Comparison and assessment at multiple metrics to assess the suitability of investment.

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Most Read: Vanguard Intl Semiconductor, Keisei Electric Railway Co, L’Occitane, Fancl Corp, Shift Up, Aisin , Toenec Corp, Hollysys Automation Technologies, SenseTime Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • TIP Taiwan Technology Dividend Highlight Index Rebalance: 12 Changes & US$4bn Round-Trip Trade
  • Keisei Electric Investor Activism Update: The Vote Count Could Shake Keisei’s Board
  • L’Occitane (973 HK): Conditional Offer Opens
  • (Mostly) Asia M&A, June 2024: Fancl, Capitol Health, Infocom,Jeisys Medical, Nagatanien, Henlius Bio
  • Shift Up IPO Book Building Results Analysis
  • Aisin (7259) | Nine Months Ago
  • Toenec (1946 JP) Offering – Nearly $50mm on SmallCap Utility Infra Co as Chubu EPCO Sells Down
  • Hollysys (HOLI US): Ascendent Finally Obtains Regulatory Approvals
  • ECM Weekly (1st July 2024)-Aisin, Mitsui, Japan Hotel, Allied Blenders, Webtoon, Hyundai India
  • HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in September


TIP Taiwan Technology Dividend Highlight Index Rebalance: 12 Changes & US$4bn Round-Trip Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 12 changes for the TIP Taiwan Technology Dividend Highlight Index in June/July. The Fuh Hwa Taiwan Technology Dividend Highlight ETF (00929 TW) has an AUM of US$7.16bn.
  • One-Way turnover is estimated at 35% and that will result in a round-trip trade of TWD 134.7bn (US$4.1bn). There are 8 stocks that could have over 5x ADV to trade.
  • The ETF started rebalancing their portfolio on Friday and will continue to trade the stock over the next 7 trading days.

Keisei Electric Investor Activism Update: The Vote Count Could Shake Keisei’s Board

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Palliser’s proposal failed to meet the challenging two-thirds threshold at the AGM. Given the ownership landscape, this outcome was anticipated.
  • Palliser nearing 50% approval at Keisei’s AGM could signify a triumph, potentially leading to significant pressure on management and a positive shift in share price performance.
  • Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)‘s valuation, now attractively low post a 33% drop and with a potential OP guidance hike, presents minimal downside at a 26.0x EV/OP multiple.

L’Occitane (973 HK): Conditional Offer Opens

By Arun George

  • The L’Occitane (973 HK) IFA opines that Reinold Geiger’s conditional voluntary cash (HK$34.00) or scrip offer (10 rollover shares for each share, subject to a cap) is fair and reasonable.
  • Irrevocable/Letters of support have nudged lower from 49.83% (17 June) to 47.66% of disinterested shares due to Southeastern Asset Management selling its shares. 
  • Nevertheless, the scrip option, an attractive offer and no vocal opposition should facilitate achieving the minimum acceptance condition. At the last close, the gross spread was 2.4%.

(Mostly) Asia M&A, June 2024: Fancl, Capitol Health, Infocom,Jeisys Medical, Nagatanien, Henlius Bio

By David Blennerhassett

  • For the month of June 2024, 8 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$6bn.
  • The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in June was ~52%. The average premium YTD is ~47%
  • This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.

Shift Up IPO Book Building Results Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Shift Up reported solid IPO book building results. Shift Up’s IPO price has been determined at 60,000 won won, which is at the high end of the IPO price range.
  • According to Hankyung Business Daily, the demand ratio was 223 to 1. Shift Up will start trading on 11 July.
  • Our base case valuation of Shift Up is market cap of 5.7 trillion won or target price of 95,510 won (59% higher than the IPO price of 60,000 won).

Aisin (7259) | Nine Months Ago

By Mark Chadwick

  • Nine months have passed since Aisin announced a transformative MTP. Investors remain sceptical that it will deliver higher returns. 
  • Improving margins on hybrid transmissions, new products for BEVs and better capital allocation could deliver 70% upside for investors.
  • The key risk is the assumption that operating margins can rise above 8% versus the historical average of 5%. 

Toenec (1946 JP) Offering – Nearly $50mm on SmallCap Utility Infra Co as Chubu EPCO Sells Down

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, Toenec Corp (1946 JP) – an integrated facilities company 50+% owned by Chubu Electric Power Co (9502 JP) announced Chubu EPCO would sell down 7.7% to go to 43%+.
  • This is surprising. It suggests there are more selldowns to come. It’s also “big” at 88 days of ADV and about 26% of Max Real World Float (85% retail).
  • This is an odd sell-down. Chubu EPCO obviously doesn’t want to buy it in. That means overhang for years.

Hollysys (HOLI US): Ascendent Finally Obtains Regulatory Approvals

By Arun George

  • Six months after announcing a binding proposal, Ascendent has obtained all the Chinese regulatory approvals for its US$26.50 Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US) offer. 
  • The gross spread was wide due to the information vacuum, which has resulted in various conspiracy theories and rumours circulating.
  • The two remaining conditions required for close are the maximum dissenting cap (should be waived) and minimum net cash condition (satisfied). At the last close, the gross spread was 22.5%.

ECM Weekly (1st July 2024)-Aisin, Mitsui, Japan Hotel, Allied Blenders, Webtoon, Hyundai India

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
  • On the IPO front, we looked at the upcoming mega-listing for Hyundai Motor India.
  • On the placement front, the week was dominated by the cross-shareholding unwinds in Aisin (7259 JP) and Mitsui & Co Ltd (8031 JP)

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in September

By Brian Freitas


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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: A/H Premium Tracker (To 28 Jun 2024):  AH Premia Still Rebounding But Wide Spreads Narrowing and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 28 Jun 2024):  AH Premia Still Rebounding But Wide Spreads Narrowing


A/H Premium Tracker (To 28 Jun 2024):  AH Premia Still Rebounding But Wide Spreads Narrowing

By Travis Lundy

  • The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
  • SOUTHBOUND inflow continues, albeit smaller. Banks remain a big net buy. SOEs prominent in low overall SOUTHBOUND volume. 
  • Wide spreads (high AH premium) saw H outperform, but narrow spreads saw Hs underperform quite significantly.

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Daily Brief ESG: New World Development – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • New World Development – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics


New World Development – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess New World Development’s ESG as “Strong”, in line with its Environmental score, while the Social and Governance scores are “Adequate”. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Strong”.


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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Micron Earnings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Micron Earnings, SiTime, Consumer, and Applied Materials Insider Sale
  • Ohayo Japan | New Nasdaq Record
  • Portfolio Update: June 2024
  • #21 India Insight: Zomato Tax Demand, Tata Steel Legal Action, NTPC Rs. 12,000 Fund-Raise
  • Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – July 1, 2024
  • The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending June 28, 2024
  • Biopharma Week in Review – July 1, 2024


Micron Earnings, SiTime, Consumer, and Applied Materials Insider Sale

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • Micron’s earnings were… acceptable.
  • The market didn’t like the guide, but I think it is more of a function of expectations management.

  • Micron is clearly on the upswing, and the stock needs healthy revenue and profit beats.


Ohayo Japan | New Nasdaq Record

By Mark Chadwick

  • The tech-heavy Nasdaq advanced 0.8% to hit a record high. Tech giants Microsoft and Apple surged 2.2% and 2.9%
  • Tesla rose more than 6% ahead of quarterly delivery numbers released on Tuesday, expected to show a decline of ~5%
  • Japan’s average land price rose by 2.3% in 2024, the highest annual increase since 2010, driven by economic recovery and rising tourism.

Portfolio Update: June 2024

By Contrarian Cashflows

  • There were no changes to the portfolio in June.
  • The two major news among my holdings come from Norbit and Lindbergh.
  • Norbit acquired Innomar, a market leader in sub-bottom profilers in the maritime industry, to strengthen their oceans segment product offering.

#21 India Insight: Zomato Tax Demand, Tata Steel Legal Action, NTPC Rs. 12,000 Fund-Raise

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • GAIL’s Rs. 12,940-crore Urja Ganga gas pipeline delayed to March 2025 completion date
  • Tata Steel UK pursues legal action against Unite union over planned July 8 strike
  • IREDA could unlock Rs. 22-lakh crore debt market for renewables energy

Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – July 1, 2024

By Water Tower Research

  • Residential furniture stocks had a tough week over concerns about demand, though commercial furniture stocks fared better.
  • The Water Tower Research Commercial/Contract Furniture Index declined 0.5%, the Residential Manufacturers & Suppliers Index fell 3.2%, and Home Goods Retailers declined 5.7%.
  • All three trailed the broader indexes (+0.2 to +0.5%) and the Mass Retailers Index (+1.7%). 

The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending June 28, 2024

By Water Tower Research

  • Cannabis stocks had a volatile week but finished almost exactly flat.
  • The US cannabis MSOS ETF ended the five days down 0.27%, while the global YOLO ETF gained 0.43%.
  • Among the larger MSOs, Green Thumb Industries (CSE: GTII, OTCQX: GTBIF) at +6.11% and Verano (NEO: VRNO, OTCQX: VRNOF) at +5.49% performed best, while Jushi (CSE: JUSH, OTQCX: JUSHF) had the largest weekly loss.

Biopharma Week in Review – July 1, 2024

By Water Tower Research

  • We review last week’s biopharma news for meaningful clinical data, regulatory updates, research innovation, and M&A.
  • We recapped our IOC of Ainos, Inc. (AIMD) in a FlashCast Podcast. Those interested can listen to the episode on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALNY) reported strong vutrisiran Phase 3 HELIOS-B results for ATTR-CM, showing a significant 28% reduction in the primary composite endpoint of mortality and CV events for all patients (HR=0.718, p=0.0118) and a 33% reduction for the mono subset (HR=0.672, p=0.0162) versus placebo. 

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Health And Happiness (H&H) and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Health And Happiness (H&H)


Morning Views Asia: Health And Happiness (H&H)

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief ECM: Shift Up IPO Book Building Results Analysis and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Shift Up IPO Book Building Results Analysis
  • Toenec (1946 JP) Offering – Nearly $50mm on SmallCap Utility Infra Co as Chubu EPCO Sells Down
  • Chenqi Technology Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Sales Growth Accelerated but Sustainability in Question
  • Sanil Electric IPO: The Bear Case
  • Shanghai Voicecomm IPO Preview: Superior Growth Profile and Collaboration With Baidu on ERNIE Bot


Shift Up IPO Book Building Results Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Shift Up reported solid IPO book building results. Shift Up’s IPO price has been determined at 60,000 won won, which is at the high end of the IPO price range.
  • According to Hankyung Business Daily, the demand ratio was 223 to 1. Shift Up will start trading on 11 July.
  • Our base case valuation of Shift Up is market cap of 5.7 trillion won or target price of 95,510 won (59% higher than the IPO price of 60,000 won).

Toenec (1946 JP) Offering – Nearly $50mm on SmallCap Utility Infra Co as Chubu EPCO Sells Down

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, Toenec Corp (1946 JP) – an integrated facilities company 50+% owned by Chubu Electric Power Co (9502 JP) announced Chubu EPCO would sell down 7.7% to go to 43%+.
  • This is surprising. It suggests there are more selldowns to come. It’s also “big” at 88 days of ADV and about 26% of Max Real World Float (85% retail).
  • This is an odd sell-down. Chubu EPCO obviously doesn’t want to buy it in. That means overhang for years.

Chenqi Technology Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Sales Growth Accelerated but Sustainability in Question

By Ethan Aw

  • Chenqi Technology Limited (CT HK) is looking to raise US$130m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO, after downsizing from an earlier reported float of US$300m.
  • Chenqi Technology (Chenqi) is a mobility technology and service company in China, founded by the GAC Group and Tencent.
  • In our previous note, we talked about the company’s historical performance. In this note, we talk about its PHIP updates.

Sanil Electric IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • Sanil Electric (062040 KS), a Korean industrial transformer manufacturer, is seeking to raise up to US$165 million.
  • In Sanil Electric IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
  • The bear case rests on rapidly slowing growth, high customer concentration, mid-tier revenue growth and mid-tier FCF margin compared to peers.

Shanghai Voicecomm IPO Preview: Superior Growth Profile and Collaboration With Baidu on ERNIE Bot

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Shanghai Voicecomm Information Technology Co., an IT solution provider for enterprise-level users in China, plans to price its IPO by July 10, 2024 and raise ~HK$664M.
  • CICC is leading the offering in Hong Kong and the IPO is expected to be priced at HK$152.10 per H share, implying a market cap of ~HK$5.4B or ~$690M.
  • Cornerstone investors have agreed to acquire ~1.8M H shares, representing 41% of the offer shares or ~5% of the total outstanding shares.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Keisei Electric Investor Activism Update: The Vote Count Could Shake Keisei’s Board and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Keisei Electric Investor Activism Update: The Vote Count Could Shake Keisei’s Board
  • L’Occitane (973 HK): Conditional Offer Opens
  • Hollysys (HOLI US): Ascendent Finally Obtains Regulatory Approvals
  • HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in September
  • Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2024: Final Expectations
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 28 June 2024); Still a Net Buy, but Less Strong. Financials Dominate
  • CPMC Holdings (906.HK) Privatization – Some New Information Worth the Attention
  • Shift Up IPO: Details, Bookbuilding & Index Inclusion
  • STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes & Over US$1.2bn to Trade
  • Boeing/Spirit AeroSystems: All-Stock Deal


Keisei Electric Investor Activism Update: The Vote Count Could Shake Keisei’s Board

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Palliser’s proposal failed to meet the challenging two-thirds threshold at the AGM. Given the ownership landscape, this outcome was anticipated.
  • Palliser nearing 50% approval at Keisei’s AGM could signify a triumph, potentially leading to significant pressure on management and a positive shift in share price performance.
  • Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)‘s valuation, now attractively low post a 33% drop and with a potential OP guidance hike, presents minimal downside at a 26.0x EV/OP multiple.

L’Occitane (973 HK): Conditional Offer Opens

By Arun George

  • The L’Occitane (973 HK) IFA opines that Reinold Geiger’s conditional voluntary cash (HK$34.00) or scrip offer (10 rollover shares for each share, subject to a cap) is fair and reasonable.
  • Irrevocable/Letters of support have nudged lower from 49.83% (17 June) to 47.66% of disinterested shares due to Southeastern Asset Management selling its shares. 
  • Nevertheless, the scrip option, an attractive offer and no vocal opposition should facilitate achieving the minimum acceptance condition. At the last close, the gross spread was 2.4%.

Hollysys (HOLI US): Ascendent Finally Obtains Regulatory Approvals

By Arun George

  • Six months after announcing a binding proposal, Ascendent has obtained all the Chinese regulatory approvals for its US$26.50 Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US) offer. 
  • The gross spread was wide due to the information vacuum, which has resulted in various conspiracy theories and rumours circulating.
  • The two remaining conditions required for close are the maximum dissenting cap (should be waived) and minimum net cash condition (satisfied). At the last close, the gross spread was 22.5%.

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in September

By Brian Freitas


Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2024: Final Expectations

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents.
  • A periodic review is conducted by the Index provider in August every year. The reference period for the August 2024 index rebal event is now complete.
  • In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations for ADDs and DELs.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 28 June 2024); Still a Net Buy, but Less Strong. Financials Dominate

By Travis Lundy

  • SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$9.3bn this week, on smallish two-way volumes. Banks were a big buy.
  • It is not clear how much of this is H/A discounts, expected dividend tax removal, shareholder return KPIs for SOE CEOs, upcoming Third Plenum policy, or national team buying…
  • But valuations are acceptable. Flows are good. Policy changes are afoot. SOUTHBOUND may continue to see inflows – national team and otherwise.

CPMC Holdings (906.HK) Privatization – Some New Information Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • ORG purchased 27% of CPMC’s shares at HK$6/share in 2015.After about eight years, Baosteel’s Offer Price was only HK$6.87/share. The annualized return rate was low, which obviously cannot satisfy ORG.
  • Baosteel and CPMC have been in talks for a long time – There may have been some “tacit agreement” between the two parties. The approval process is smooth so far.
  • For acquisitions/consolidation between SOEs, private enterprises usually have limited chances of winning.ORG has financial pressure and the approval process face uncertainties. There would be more negotiations among CPMC, ORG, Baosteel.

Shift Up IPO: Details, Bookbuilding & Index Inclusion

By Brian Freitas

  • Shift Up (462870 KS) will raise KRW 435bn (US$315m) in its IPO, valuing the company at KRW 3,482bn (US$2.52bn). Listing is expected later this month.
  • Competition for the shares has been fierce with institutional investors indicating demand for 226x the number of shares on offer at prices higher than the top end of the range.
  • Inclusion in the KOSPI 200 looks likely in June 2025, while inclusion in global indices is likely in December. But there could be some passive inflows in September.

STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes & Over US$1.2bn to Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the September rebalance ends 31 July. We expect the changes to be announced 30 August with the implementation taking place after the close on 13 September.
  • We expect the index committee to continue using a 6-month minimum listing history resulting in two changes to the index.
  • One-Way turnover is estimated at 3.5% resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 4.5bn (US$618m). Passive trackers will need to trade 4-8x ADV on the index changes.

Boeing/Spirit AeroSystems: All-Stock Deal

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • On July 1, Boeing Co (BA US) announced a definitive agreement to acquire Spirit Aerosystems Holdings, Inc (SPR US) in an expected all-share deal valued at c.$4.7 billion, or $37.25/share.
  • Consideration is calculated using a floating exchange ratio ($37.25 divided by 15-day VWAP) with a collar. 0.20466 using Boeing’s last closing share price, which implies 3.9% dilution for Boeing’s shareholders.
  • The offer price is 6.4% above consensus price target median ($35), and reasonable, reflecting some control premium. The valuation represents 10.1x EV/2025 EBITDA based on IBES estimates. Long spread.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Aisin (7259) | Nine Months Ago and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Aisin (7259) | Nine Months Ago
  • Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 3Q 2024
  • Precot Limited: A Niche Technical Textile Player
  • Gap Trades in Korean Prefs Vs Common Share Pairs in 3Q 2024
  • Elon Wins $56B Package Re-Vote and Shift to Texas. Now What for Tesla?
  • Toyo Corporation (8151 JP) – Initiating Coverage
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (02-Jul-2024): India boosts smartphone exports with iPhone manufacturers.
  • Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – July 2024
  • 3Q FOLLOW-UP – Carta Holdings (3688 JP)
  • Target Healthcare REIT – Enhanced portfolio metrics and interest savings


Aisin (7259) | Nine Months Ago

By Mark Chadwick

  • Nine months have passed since Aisin announced a transformative MTP. Investors remain sceptical that it will deliver higher returns. 
  • Improving margins on hybrid transmissions, new products for BEVs and better capital allocation could deliver 70% upside for investors.
  • The key risk is the assumption that operating margins can rise above 8% versus the historical average of 5%. 

Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 3Q 2024

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in 3Q 2024.
  • Of the 38 pair trades, 21 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos in the past six months, suggesting increased capital allocation to Korean holdcos relative to their opcos.
  • These pairs could generate trading opportunities in terms of their pricing gaps closing reversal (Doosan Corp vs. Doosan Enerbility; Hyundai Mobis vs Hyundai Motor).

Precot Limited: A Niche Technical Textile Player

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Niche Player in Cotton yarn spinning and Technical Textile with decadal experience.
  • Expansion in Technical Textile during FY24 will significantly improve the margin profile and revenue for the company.
  • Peer Comparison and assessment at multiple metrics to assess the suitability of investment.

Gap Trades in Korean Prefs Vs Common Share Pairs in 3Q 2024

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss numerous gap trades involving Korean preferred and common shares in 3Q 2024.
  • The recent push for Korea Value Up program has helped to push up prices of numerous Korean preferred stocks including Hyundai Motor (005385 KS)
  • On a longer timeframe (3-4 years), we believe this discount could narrow further to the 20-25% range, which provides additional opportunities for the Korean preferred shares to further make gains.

Elon Wins $56B Package Re-Vote and Shift to Texas. Now What for Tesla?

By Uttkarsh Kohli

  • Despite achieving significant milestones, Elon Musk’s $56 billion compensation package was voided in January 2024 due to a flawed approval process, ruled a Delaware judge.
  • Tesla’s shareholders voted to reinstate Musk’s package in June 2024, but the lawsuit continues, and the contract’s future remains uncertain.
  • Tesla faces challenges with slow EV sales growth, rising competition, and the need for lower-cost models, which may impact stock performance despite Musk’s ongoing leadership.

Toyo Corporation (8151 JP) – Initiating Coverage

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Toyo Corporation is a trading company specializing in measurement technologies.
  • With several initiatives and strong structural demand in the electric vehicles space in particular, we expect the company to achieve higher revenue and profitability.
  • Higher recurring revenue and proprietary product ratios will support a margin improvement in the future. 

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (02-Jul-2024): India boosts smartphone exports with iPhone manufacturers.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Indian smartphone exports boosted by iPhone makers as Xiphera introduces quantum security improvements in crypto solutions
  • Ola Electric pioneers solid-state batteries for electric vehicles, while SK Hynix invests $75 billion to dominate HBM Market for AI Chips
  • China nationalizes rare earth resources as airlines struggle with high costs to achieve sustainable fuel goals, Foxconn denies mistreating married women in India

Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – July 2024

By Sameer Taneja


3Q FOLLOW-UP – Carta Holdings (3688 JP)

By Sessa Investment Research

  • Operating profit for 1Q (Jan-Mar) FY2024/12 was ¥985 mn, already achieving 65.7% of progress in 1Q against the full-year target.
  • Reason: a steady growth in programmatic advertising business including the collaboration business with Dentsu and the drastic cost reduction implemented in 2023 helped, while the bottoming out of reservation-based advertising business was not yet recognized in 1Q FY2024/12.
  • In addition, the phasing out of the use of third-party Cookies in Google Chrome, which was included in the initial performance plan as a downside risk, has been postponed to 2025 or later. 

Target Healthcare REIT – Enhanced portfolio metrics and interest savings

By Edison Investment Research

Target Healthcare REIT has sold four of its care homes for £44.5m to the incumbent tenant, modestly ahead of the carried value. The homes have performed well since being acquired as part of the significant portfolio transaction in late 2021, but their sale enhances key portfolio average metrics such as age, floor space and unexpired lease term, has been completed at a lower yield than the portfolio average and enables the company to reduce exposure to more expensive debt.


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