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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): #25 India Insight: LIC Stake in IDFC and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • #25 India Insight: LIC Stake in IDFC, INOX Wind Soars 13%, Reliance Retail to Launch Shein IPO
  • Taiwan Banks – HFD Profit Figures Good, Tech Exposure Can Support Credit Metrics, Loan Growth
  • US Battery and Solar Investments, One Year After, Part II
  • Auctus on Friday – 05/07/2024
  • Despite Many Years and Efforts, Insurance Covered Online Pharmacies Still Only 0.8-3.6% of Total


#25 India Insight: LIC Stake in IDFC, INOX Wind Soars 13%, Reliance Retail to Launch Shein IPO

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Reliance Retail Ventures will launch Shein in India, four years after its ban
  • Indian Railways plans 10,000 non-AC coaches by 2025-26 to alleviate overcrowding issues
  • The coal sector achieved a notable 10.2% growth in May, leading key infrastructure industries

Taiwan Banks – HFD Profit Figures Good, Tech Exposure Can Support Credit Metrics, Loan Growth

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Monthly high frequency data from Taiwan’s banks shows strong profit acceleration through May YTD, which will include insurance investment gains for some
  • This can be driven by accelerating loan growth to technology companies, to related companies, indirectly and may explain in part, Taiwan’s leading loan growth rate vs other countries
  • Credit metrics and net profit growth can be supported for Taiwan’s banks by a sector focus that differs from many others in the region and the world

US Battery and Solar Investments, One Year After, Part II

By Eric Wen

  • One year after we started tracking solar investment in US, the planned capacity almost doubled to 123GW, comparing to addition of 32GW of capacity added in 2023;
  • However, there is a lack of wafer, ingot and polysilicon capacity in planning. Only 7GW of ingot capacity is planned, vs. cell capacity rose from 8% of total to 43%;
  • Chinese participation declined only slightly from 31% to 28%. Lack of wafer, ingot and polysilicon integration means cost of US production stays high. But overcapacity still restrains up stream profitability.

Auctus on Friday – 05/07/2024

By Auctus Advisors

  • Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C; Target price of NOK52 per share: About to commence drilling in EG – The drilling rig has arrived in EG.
  • The drilling campaign is about to commence.
  • It will include two development wells plus an exploration well at the high impact Akeng Deep prospect.

Despite Many Years and Efforts, Insurance Covered Online Pharmacies Still Only 0.8-3.6% of Total

By Andy Fu

  • Beijing launched the use of medical social insurance (MSI) via online payments, marking MSI payable among all the 1st tier cities in China. But the policy only covers non-prescription;
  • However, the progress for the online penetration of MSI payment was still slow, reaching only 3.6% of all MSI capable pharmacies and 0.8% of all pharmacies in China;
  • The reason for the slow adoption is the vested, interlinked interests among local public hospitals, local MSI administrators and public security concerns over drug disbursement.

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Daily Brief ECM: Aisin (7259 JP): The Current Playbook and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Aisin (7259 JP): The Current Playbook
  • SHEIN: Teaming up with Reliance Retail to Re-Enter India. A Win-Win Move


Aisin (7259 JP): The Current Playbook

By Arun George

  • Since the US$1.1 billion secondary placement announcement, Aisin (7259 JP)’s shares are up 2.5% from the undisturbed price of JPY5,243 per share (27 June).
  • Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Aisin’s shares have deviated from the pattern of previous large placements.
  • The offering will likely be priced on 8 July. Investors who have participated in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.

SHEIN: Teaming up with Reliance Retail to Re-Enter India. A Win-Win Move

By Devi Subhakesan

  • SHEIN’s fast-fashion apparel is set to hit India through Reliance Retail’s platforms, marking a major comeback after the 2020 ban.
  • This partnership could be a win-win, tapping into India’s booming fashion demand and offering Shein access to the world’s largest youth market, ahead of its proposed IPO.
  • With Shein’s affordable styles and Reliance’s extensive network, this alliance targets the youth market, challenging brands like Tata Group’s Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) owned Zudio.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Outpacing Delivery Expectations Sends Shares Soaring. Is Tesla the Most Undervalued AI Name? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Outpacing Delivery Expectations Sends Shares Soaring. Is Tesla the Most Undervalued AI Name?
  • Wix.com Ltd. – Improved Monetization Leading to Increasing ARPS! – Major Drivers
  • Onward Holdings (8016 JP): Q1 FY02/25 flash update
  • Credo Technology Group: We Are Unsure Despite Their Expansion in Artificial Intelligence Applications! – Major Drivers
  • Signet Jewelers: A Flexible Operating Model and Strong Free Cash Flow Conversion! – Major Drivers
  • J & J Snack Foods Corp.: Enhanced Distribution Strategy with New Infrastructure Developments As A Critical Growth Catalyst! – Major Drivers
  • Meritage Homes Corporation: A Tale Of Community Expansion and Market Share Growth! – Major Drivers
  • Scotts Miracle-Gro Co (SMG) – Friday, Apr 5, 2024
  • Iheartmedia Inc (IHRT) – Friday, Apr 5, 2024
  • Nano Dimension – Agreement to acquire Desktop Metal


Outpacing Delivery Expectations Sends Shares Soaring. Is Tesla the Most Undervalued AI Name?

By Uttkarsh Kohli

  • Tesla delivered 443,956 vehicles in Q2 with production of 410,831 vehicles. It deployed a quarterly record of 9.4 GW hours of battery storage, its best quarter ever.
  • Tesla delivered 443,956 vehicles in Q2 with production of 410,831 vehicles. It deployed a quarterly record of 9.4 GW hours of battery storage, its best quarter ever.
  • Future remains uncertain for Tesla and its investors. Tesla shares are pricing in the launch of a lower priced model and Tesla’s Robotaxi on 8/8.

Wix.com Ltd. – Improved Monetization Leading to Increasing ARPS! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • In the Q1 2024 earnings, Wix.com Ltd.’s management shared a very positive outlook based on the company’s recent financial results, strategic initiatives, and product advancements.
  • Key achievements included stronger-than-expected Q1 growth, with booking growing to over $457 million and revenue reaching $420 million, exceeding the company’s previous guidance.
  • This performance led to free cash flow growth to more than $111 million.

Onward Holdings (8016 JP): Q1 FY02/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Sales rose JPY1.5bn YoY (+2.9% YoY) to JPY51.4bn, driven by higher sales in domestic and overseas apparel businesses.
  • Operating profit decreased JPY306mn YoY (-5.7% YoY) to JPY5.1bn due to a decline in domestic profit and wider overseas losses.
  • Full-year forecasts revised for recurring profit and net income attributable to owners of the parent, reflecting better-than-expected affiliate performance.

Credo Technology Group: We Are Unsure Despite Their Expansion in Artificial Intelligence Applications! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Credo’s fiscal 2024 earnings presented a blend of robust achievements and markers for future growth, tied along with inherent business risks associated with developing and scaling high-speed connectivity solutions.
  • The company highlighted record annual revenue alongside a notable uplift in revenue derived from AI-powered workloads, indicating successful alignment with leading-edge technological demands.
  • Revenue for fiscal year 2024 stood at $193 million, up by 5% year-over-year, with a marked improvement in non GAAP gross margins to 62.5%.

Signet Jewelers: A Flexible Operating Model and Strong Free Cash Flow Conversion! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Signet Jewelers delivered a performance that aligns with its guidance amidst a challenging retail environmen characterized by macroeconomic pressures and heightened discount activities in the jewelry sector.
  • The company reported $1.5 billion in sales and $58 million in adjusted operating income, which falls within the upper half of its guidance range.
  • The quarter saw a sluggish start but improved significantly with late Valentine’s Day shopping and further momentum through March and April.

J & J Snack Foods Corp.: Enhanced Distribution Strategy with New Infrastructure Developments As A Critical Growth Catalyst! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • J&J Snack Foods recently reported fiscal results for the second quarter of 2024 and showcased a promising outcome, marked by significant sales and profit growth.
  • The company’s strategy and operational efficiencies appear to be paying off, with net sales reaching $357 million, an increase of 6.5% compared to the prior year.
  • This results from a combination of higher volumes, new business performance, and continued robust sales in major segments like Foodservice and Retail.

Meritage Homes Corporation: A Tale Of Community Expansion and Market Share Growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Meritage Homes commenced the year with a remarkable first quarter in 2024, demonstrating both strong execution and a robust demand environment, yet facing challenges due to the unpredictability of interest rates and increased land and material costs.
  • On the performance front, Meritage Homes reported substantial gains, with first-quarter sales orders hitting a record 3,991 homes, reflecting a 14% year-over-year increase.
  • This noteworthy jump was primarily driven by healthy spring sales, an 8% cancellation rate, and robust demand across all regions, particularly from entry-level homebuyers who make up more than 90% of the order volume.

Scotts Miracle-Gro Co (SMG) – Friday, Apr 5, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Recommendation to short shares of Scotts Miracle-Gro based on excessive leverage from Hawthorne hydroponics subsidiary’s cannabis market bet
  • Core consumer lawn care business facing increased competition, pricing pressure, and challenges in driving volume growth
  • Projected 40% downside for SMG due to precarious financial position and reliance on key retailers and seasonal revenue

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Iheartmedia Inc (IHRT) – Friday, Apr 5, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • IHRT is expected to experience positive growth in the upcoming quarters, driven by its podcasting business
  • CEO and CFO have been buying stocks, indicating confidence in the company’s future prospects
  • Potential debt restructuring and positive growth could lead to a significant increase in IHRT’s equity value by the end of 2025.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Nano Dimension – Agreement to acquire Desktop Metal

By Edison Investment Research

Nano Dimension has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Desktop Metal (DM) in an all-cash deal worth $185m ($5.50 per DM share), with potential adjustments that could reduce it to $135m ($4.07 per share). The deal is subject to regulatory approvals and DM shareholder approval and is expected to close in Q424. With complementary product lines, the combined entity will offer a broad range of additive manufacturing solutions covering multiple verticals and materials, supporting the entire value chain from prototyping through to mass manufacturing.


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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Hanwha Corp Tender Offer Details & Arbitrage Trading Assessment and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Hanwha Corp Tender Offer Details & Arbitrage Trading Assessment
  • JAPAN ACTIVISM: Murakami Target Mitsui Matsushima Cleans Up
  • Impact of Kim Byung-Hwan’s Appointment as Korea FSC Chairman on Value-Up Policy
  • HK CEO & Director Dealings (5th Jul 2024): J&T Global Express, Flat Glass, Lifetech Scientific, PCCW
  • Hanwha Energy Launches Tender Offer of 180 Billion Won Worth of Hanwha Corp
  • EQD | Will the HSI Keep Falling In July?


Hanwha Corp Tender Offer Details & Arbitrage Trading Assessment

By Sanghyun Park

  • Hanwha Energy, wholly owned by the Hanwha Group’s owning family, announced a tender offer for an 8% stake in Hanwha Corp at ₩30,000. The tender period is until July 24.
  • Hanwha Energy will buy all shares if tendered less than planned, otherwise pro-rata. Payment in cash eliminates cancellation risk but poses allocation risk.
  • Approximately 10-15% of shares are likely to be the potential ceiling for tendering, minimizing allocation risk for the 8% target. A widening spread of 2-3% could offer arbitrage opportunities.

JAPAN ACTIVISM: Murakami Target Mitsui Matsushima Cleans Up

By Travis Lundy

  • On 20 May, I wrote that Japanese activist MURAKAMI Yoshiaki and relations/affiliates had gone from 5% to 20% of Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) in 5 trading days.
  • I wondered if it was real, or a pump & dump, but they went to near 30% in following days. THEN they drifted off as Murakami-Fille sold while Murakami-Père bought. 
  • The reasoning was not clear, but the story had real potential. Still does. Today, shareholders got more good news. 

Impact of Kim Byung-Hwan’s Appointment as Korea FSC Chairman on Value-Up Policy

By Sanghyun Park

  • Kim Byung-hwan addressed criticism of weak incentives in tax support for the value-up policy, emphasizing boosting dividends. His background suggests effective advocacy for tax reforms in his new role.
  • He prioritized abolishing the FIIT in the National Assembly, citing its hindrance to capital market liquidity and investment promotion, indicating a robust approach to the value-up policy.
  • Kim’s appointment as FSC Chairman signals the government’s commitment to advancing the value-up policy. He emphasizes boosting dividends and aligning tax policies accordingly, shaping trading strategies toward dividend-expanding companies.

HK CEO & Director Dealings (5th Jul 2024): J&T Global Express, Flat Glass, Lifetech Scientific, PCCW

By David Blennerhassett


Hanwha Energy Launches Tender Offer of 180 Billion Won Worth of Hanwha Corp

By Douglas Kim

  • On 5 July, Hanwha Energy announced a tender offer of 8% stake in Hanwha Corporation (000880 KS) worth 180 billion won.
  • The tender offer price is 30,000 won. Hanwha Energy will launch a tender offer for up to 6 million shares of Hanwha Corp, representing 8% of outstanding shares. 
  • Hanwha Corp’s 34% stake in Hanwha Aerospace which is worth 4.2 trillion won. (191% of Hanwha Corp’s market cap). 

EQD | Will the HSI Keep Falling In July?

By Nico Rosti

  • After an explosive rally in April, the Hang Seng Index has been in a downtrend since mid-May, many are wondering where the index is headed next.
  • July 2024, based on our seasonal pattern analysis, does not have a great chance to close higher (it could, but the odds are not good).
  • If the index goes down in the next 2 weeks, buy the 17600-17300 price area.

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Daily Brief Macro: Hong Kong: How Much GDP Is Deduced from the Northern Spending of Hong Kong Residents and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong: How Much GDP Is Deduced from the Northern Spending of Hong Kong Residents
  • Iron Ore Prices on Fire on Hopes of China’s Third Plenum
  • The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA/HONG KONG (July 5th)
  • Paladin-Fission Merger Primed to Benefit from Rising Uranium Demand
  • Eurozone: Will the Tight Labor Market Persevere?
  • US Nonfarm Payroll Change 206k (consensus 190k) in Jun-24
  • HEW: Passing Political Parties


Hong Kong: How Much GDP Is Deduced from the Northern Spending of Hong Kong Residents

By Alex Ng

  • It is estimated that 0.8 million Hong Kong residents spend weekends at other Bay Areas
  • These residents spend an average of HKD730 on a weekend in Shenzhen
  • The value-added factor for food, alcoholic drinks, and tobacco as well as retail trade are both  0.12, which gives 3.64 billion HKD, or 3.5% in annual GDP

Iron Ore Prices on Fire on Hopes of China’s Third Plenum

By Pranay Yadav

  • Anticipation of an extensive stimulus package at China’s Third Plenum, aimed at revitalizing the decelerating economy, is driving a rebound in iron ore prices.
  • China’s iron ore imports have increased by 7% year-over-year despite a 3% decline in steel output, leading to a buildup in inventories on-shore. 
  • The convergence of technical signals and seasonal trends in the SGX TSI Iron Ore Index suggests a bullish market stance, highlighting potential profit opportunities.

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA/HONG KONG (July 5th)

By David Mudd

  • China and Hong Kong saw positive ETF flows for the week.
  • Dividend Yield, Low Volatility and Value strategies have outperformed during the market correction in Hong Kong.
  • Lufax Holdings jumps after announcement that Ping An will increase stake.  Fufeng slumps after announcing a decline in 1st half profit.

Paladin-Fission Merger Primed to Benefit from Rising Uranium Demand

By Suhas Reddy

  • Combined entity of Paladin Energy and Fission Uranium expected to command a market capitalisation of USD 3.5 billion.  
  • Following the Russia-Ukraine war, uranium miners started looking for alternative sources in low-risk regions, putting focus on US and Canada.
  • Post-Merger, Paladin will have the second-largest resource base of any listed uranium miner in the Western Hemisphere, second only to Cameco.  

Eurozone: Will the Tight Labor Market Persevere?

By Alex Ng

  • With markets and policy makers very much focused on inflation, the EZ labor market continues to shine –apparently. Indeed, the EZ jobless rate has remains at a record-low of 6.4%.
  • That will perturb ECB hawks wary of higher ensuing wage pressures.  
  • But this apparent record-low may exaggerate the tightness in the labor market.

US Nonfarm Payroll Change 206k (consensus 190k) in Jun-24

By Heteronomics AI

  • US Nonfarm Payroll additions for June 2024 surpassed expectations, however, showed a slowdown compared to prior months, particularly in private sector hiring.
  • There is an increase in unemployment and only modest wage growth, indicating a weakening labour market.
  • This economic situation is likely to prompt a Federal Reserve rate cut in the near future.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

HEW: Passing Political Parties

By Phil Rush

  • UK, France, and US voters are showing support for opposition parties in recent elections, with a notable shift away from Biden in the US. Central banks in these countries are expected to make cuts in August and September.
  • Upcoming events include monetary policy decisions from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Bank of Korea, Bank Negara Malaysia, and Central Reserve Bank of Peru.
  • The second round of French elections and US inflation data are anticipated to be the focal points for global markets, with a potential September cut from the Federal Reserve if outcomes are benign.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Timee Inc, Hanwha Aerospace, Tsubakimoto Kogyo, Srg Takamiya, UFP Industries and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Timee (215A JP) IPO: The Bear Case
  • What Did NPS Buy and Sell in Korean Stock Market in 2Q 2024?
  • Tsubakimoto Kogyo (8052 Jp) – Record Net Sales for Second Consecutive Year
  • 4Q Follow-Up – Takamiya (2445 JP)
  • UFP Industries Inc.: Will The Resilience in Housing & Construction Sectors Last?


Timee (215A JP) IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • Timee Inc (215A JP), a leading part-time job platform in Japan, is seeking to raise up to US$286 million. Book-building runs from 9 to 23 July.
  • In Timee (215A JP) IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
  • The bear case rests on rapidly slowing growth, an industry-low FCF profile, and a business model predicated on access to large funding and significant share option dilution.

What Did NPS Buy and Sell in Korean Stock Market in 2Q 2024?

By Douglas Kim

  • On 4 July, NPS disclosed the details of the ownership changes for 112 listed companies in Korea, of which 87 were listed in KOSPI and 25 in KOSDAQ. 
  • In 2Q 2024, the NPS reduced its investments in defense and military stocks and increased investments in cosmetics, shipbuilding, and food companies in Korea.
  • NPS reduced its capital allocation to the military & defense sector. NPS reduced its stake in LIG Nex1 (-2.32%), Poongsan Corp (-2.24%), and Hanwha Aerospace (-1.02%). 

Tsubakimoto Kogyo (8052 Jp) – Record Net Sales for Second Consecutive Year

By Sessa Investment Research

  • Tsubakimoto Kogyo Co., Ltd., (hereafter, the Company) is an industrial equipment–related trading company with a history that goes back more than a century.
  • While primarily handling power transmission products, such as motors and chains, the Company also handles factory automation (FA) equipment, including conveyors for automobiles and liquid crystals.
  • Furthermore, the Company is expanding into other industrial equipment parts, including actuators, such as cylinders, for semiconductor-manufacturing equipment, and conveyor equipment in factories, inspection equipment, and various types of meters. 

4Q Follow-Up – Takamiya (2445 JP)

By Sessa Investment Research

  • Takamiya (hereafter, the Company) announced its FY24/3 full-year earnings results on Friday, May 10, 2024 after the market closed.
  • Sales, operating profit, and net profit were below its initial estimates, except for ordinary profit.
  • However, a significant increase in profits were achieved thanks to the strong performance of its high-margin rental business.

UFP Industries Inc.: Will The Resilience in Housing & Construction Sectors Last?

By Baptista Research

  • UFP Industries Inc. has presented its Q1 2024 earnings, showcasing a resilient yet moderately challenged financial and operational landscape.
  • The company reported net sales of $1.64 billion, a decrease driven by diminished demand and lower lumber market levels, alongside a net earnings per share of $1.96, which fortunately exceeded expectations due to a nonrecurring tax benefit.
  • Despite the fall in net sales, the consistency in earnings per share beyond projections is commendable and highlights the company’s effective management and strategic financial controls.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Sanil Electric, Iron Ore, Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Crude Oil, Kinross Gold Corp, Nanoco Group PLC, ICL Group , Sonoco Products Co, West Fraser Timber and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Sanil Electric IPO: Valuation Insights
  • Iron Ore Tracker July 4th, 2024: Prices Rangebound, Iron Condors Anyone?
  • Alpha Metallurgical Resources: These Are The 4 Pivotal Factors Driving Its Performance In 2024 & 2025! – Financial Forecasts
  • [ETP 27/2024] Oil Prices Surge While Natural Gas Slides; Energy Majors’ Gains Slowdown
  • Kinross Gold Corporation: A Tale Of Continued Exploration & Resource Expansion! – Major Drivers
  • Nanoco Group – Visibility pushed back
  • ICL Group Ltd.: Improvements & Expansions In Potash & 3 Pivotal Factors Driving Our Optimism! – Major Drivers
  • Sonoco Products Company: A Story Of Strategic Reorganization & Market Positioning! – Major Drivers
  • West Fraser Timber Co.: Leveraging Geographic & Product Diversification


Sanil Electric IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George


Iron Ore Tracker July 4th, 2024: Prices Rangebound, Iron Condors Anyone?

By Sameer Taneja

  • Iron ore has remained rangebound between 95 and 130 USD/ton for three years, with cost-curve support kicking in on the higher end of the cost curve at around 100 USD/ton. 
  • Coking coal prices are expected to bounce due to the Anglo incident, and we believe the 65-62 spread will benefit, moving out of its mid-teens band. 
  • We like iron condors (set up details in the insight) and high-grade ore producers Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU), Vale (VALE US).

Alpha Metallurgical Resources: These Are The 4 Pivotal Factors Driving Its Performance In 2024 & 2025! – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • Alpha Metallurgical Resources recently disclosed its financial results for the first quarter of 2024, presenting mixed outcomes amidst challenging market conditions.
  • The company announced an adjusted EBITDA of $190 million, a decline from the $266 million recorded in the previous quarter, citing the softening metallurgical coal market which deteriorated further after the quarter ended, setting a challenging environment for the upcoming quarter.
  • Despite these complex market dynamics, Alpha Metallurgical Resources remains committed to maintaining operational excellence and cost-efficient practices.

[ETP 27/2024] Oil Prices Surge While Natural Gas Slides; Energy Majors’ Gains Slowdown

By Suhas Reddy

  • US crude oil inventory declined by 12.2 million barrels as of the week ending on 28/Jun, the biggest drawdown since July 2023.
  • Henry Hub prices continued to decline from last week due to increased production and cooler weather forecasts.
  • Saudi Aramco awarded over USD 25 billion in contracts for gas expansion. Goldman Sachs lowered its target price on Saudi Aramco but maintained its “Neutral” rating.

Kinross Gold Corporation: A Tale Of Continued Exploration & Resource Expansion! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Kinross Gold Corporation reported a financially robust first quarter for the year 2024, characterized by strong operational performance and strategic developmental advancements, despite the inherent challenges and complexities in the mining sector.
  • During this quarter, Kinross Gold produced 527,000 ounces of gold, with its key operations at Tasiast, Paracau, and La Coipa contributing significantly to the output, demonstrating cost-effective production with an All-In Sustaining Cost (ASIC) below $1,000 per ounce.
  • The favorable gold prices provided a financial tailwind, enhancing the company’s profitability margins.

Nanoco Group – Visibility pushed back

By Edison Investment Research

Nanoco Group’s trading update flagged that, while its development work on second-generation materials continues to progress as expected, it does not expect to receive a follow-on order for commercial materials in FY24. These orders were expected to be low volume, hence the delay is not particularly material from a financial perspective, although it does remove an expected milestone to gauge Nanoco’s pathway to volume production. We have adjusted our estimates to reflect a more cautious scenario for the near-term ramp-up of volume material sales. Success will be defined by the extent to which Nanoco-based sensors are designed into handsets and other devices in the 2026/27 timeframe, when the infrared sensing market is expected to see an inflection. Nanoco and its lead partner hope to have more visibility on end-customers’ commercialisation pipelines by the time of the FY24 results in October.


ICL Group Ltd.: Improvements & Expansions In Potash & 3 Pivotal Factors Driving Our Optimism! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • ICL recently shared financial results for the first quarter of 2024, marking a period of adaptation and resilience amidst enduring operational challenges, particularly due to the geopolitical situation in Israel.
  • This quarter demonstrated a mixed financial performance, showcasing both progress and areas needing attention.
  • ICL reported a total revenue of $1.735 billion for the quarter, which, while representing a sequential improvement of 3%, is lower compared to the same period in the previous year.

Sonoco Products Company: A Story Of Strategic Reorganization & Market Positioning! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Sonoco, a diversified global packaging company, displayed stable financial performance in its first quarter of 2024.
  • With revenues hitting $1.6 billion and adjusted earnings per share at $1.12, the company’s resilience in managing operating costs and capital was transparent.
  • A particularly strong note was the reported operating cash flow of $166 million, supported by effective working capital management.

West Fraser Timber Co.: Leveraging Geographic & Product Diversification

By Baptista Research

  • West Fraser presented its Q1 2024 financial performance, revealing mixed business outcomes and a nuanced path forward amidst shifting market dynamics.
  • The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of $200 million with a 12% margin, demonstrating stable financial health, despite sectoral challenges.
  • This performance marks a considerable improvement over the previous fiscal year’s EBITDA, largely buoyed by strategic acquisitions and capital investments that have enhanced operational efficacy and market reach.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Douyu International Holdings, Dell Technologies , Digital Arts, Delta Air Lines and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Screening For The Next Douyu (DOYU US)
  • S&P 500 / S&P 1500: Deriving Forecasts & First Prediction for September
  • Digital Arts: Decision to Deconsolidate DAC Business – A Positive Move
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (05-Jul-2024): S. Korea boosts EDA competitiveness.


Screening For The Next Douyu (DOYU US)

By David Blennerhassett

  • In a particularly altruistic move, live-streaming game platform play Douyu International Holdings (DOYU US)  announced a special cash dividend of US$9.76/share, vs. a last price of US$12.59.
  • The cash outlay is roughly US$308mn, and Douyu had cash (as at 1Q24) of US$936.6mn. And no debt.  Founder/chairman/CEO Shaojie Chen (17.2% shareholder) will pocket a tidy ~US$53mn.
  • An outlier; or should we expect more of the same for other cash-rich US-listed China plays?

S&P 500 / S&P 1500: Deriving Forecasts & First Prediction for September

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • Index Committee’s discretion decreases the predictability of index changes. Even when a company passes all eligibility criteria and thresholds, it might still not be selected.
  • Understanding triggers for index changes, types of additions/deletions and selection patterns, narrows down the pool of candidates and increases conviction of forecasts.
  • Dell Technologies (DELL US) is currently the main candidate to be added by transition to the S&P 500 in September 2024 Quarterly Rebalance.

Digital Arts: Decision to Deconsolidate DAC Business – A Positive Move

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Digital Arts (2326 JP) , based in Japan offers internet security software and appliances  globally. The company also provides consulting services related to information security.
  • The company’s share price has moved up by more than 30% over the last 30-days driven by DA’s decision to deconsolidate its DAC business.
  • Given the high-cost nature, we welcome Digital Arts’ move to deconsolidate the DAC business as it should help improve the company’s profitability.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (05-Jul-2024): S. Korea boosts EDA competitiveness.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • South Korea is prioritizing enhancing its EDA competitiveness to stay ahead in the technological race.
  • China is focusing on consolidating promising chip firms while doubling the terminations of IPOs to control the market.
  • Commodity DRAM and NAND chip prices are stalling due to slow demand recovery, affecting Taiwanese companies and PanelSemi’s development of mini LEDs. Vietnam PM strengthens South Korea relations and secures investments in display production and clean energy. Taiwan is aiming to lead in floating wind technology with a projected global investment of EUR250 billion by 2035.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Timee Inc, Hanwha Aerospace, Tsubakimoto Kogyo, Srg Takamiya, UFP Industries and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Timee (215A JP) IPO: The Bear Case
  • What Did NPS Buy and Sell in Korean Stock Market in 2Q 2024?
  • Tsubakimoto Kogyo (8052 Jp) – Record Net Sales for Second Consecutive Year
  • 4Q Follow-Up – Takamiya (2445 JP)
  • UFP Industries Inc.: Will The Resilience in Housing & Construction Sectors Last?


Timee (215A JP) IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • Timee Inc (215A JP), a leading part-time job platform in Japan, is seeking to raise up to US$286 million. Book-building runs from 9 to 23 July.
  • In Timee (215A JP) IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
  • The bear case rests on rapidly slowing growth, an industry-low FCF profile, and a business model predicated on access to large funding and significant share option dilution.

What Did NPS Buy and Sell in Korean Stock Market in 2Q 2024?

By Douglas Kim

  • On 4 July, NPS disclosed the details of the ownership changes for 112 listed companies in Korea, of which 87 were listed in KOSPI and 25 in KOSDAQ. 
  • In 2Q 2024, the NPS reduced its investments in defense and military stocks and increased investments in cosmetics, shipbuilding, and food companies in Korea.
  • NPS reduced its capital allocation to the military & defense sector. NPS reduced its stake in LIG Nex1 (-2.32%), Poongsan Corp (-2.24%), and Hanwha Aerospace (-1.02%). 

Tsubakimoto Kogyo (8052 Jp) – Record Net Sales for Second Consecutive Year

By Sessa Investment Research

  • Tsubakimoto Kogyo Co., Ltd., (hereafter, the Company) is an industrial equipment–related trading company with a history that goes back more than a century.
  • While primarily handling power transmission products, such as motors and chains, the Company also handles factory automation (FA) equipment, including conveyors for automobiles and liquid crystals.
  • Furthermore, the Company is expanding into other industrial equipment parts, including actuators, such as cylinders, for semiconductor-manufacturing equipment, and conveyor equipment in factories, inspection equipment, and various types of meters. 

4Q Follow-Up – Takamiya (2445 JP)

By Sessa Investment Research

  • Takamiya (hereafter, the Company) announced its FY24/3 full-year earnings results on Friday, May 10, 2024 after the market closed.
  • Sales, operating profit, and net profit were below its initial estimates, except for ordinary profit.
  • However, a significant increase in profits were achieved thanks to the strong performance of its high-margin rental business.

UFP Industries Inc.: Will The Resilience in Housing & Construction Sectors Last?

By Baptista Research

  • UFP Industries Inc. has presented its Q1 2024 earnings, showcasing a resilient yet moderately challenged financial and operational landscape.
  • The company reported net sales of $1.64 billion, a decrease driven by diminished demand and lower lumber market levels, alongside a net earnings per share of $1.96, which fortunately exceeded expectations due to a nonrecurring tax benefit.
  • Despite the fall in net sales, the consistency in earnings per share beyond projections is commendable and highlights the company’s effective management and strategic financial controls.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Honda Motor, Daidoh Ltd, Dollar Industries, Aisin , Samvardhana Motherson Automotive Systems Group BV, Lululemon Athletica, Arcos Dorados Holdings , D’ieteren SA/NV and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Big ¥500bn Honda (7267) Offering Is Small
  • JAPAN ACTIVISM: Strategic Capital Target Daido (3205) Now A Murakami Target Too
  • Honda (7267 JP): A US$3.3 Billion Secondary Offering
  • Honda Motor Placement – Large in Size, Relatively Small in Other Terms
  • The Beat Ideas- Dollar Industries: A Tech-Driven Transformation in the Innerwear Market
  • Aisin Corp Placement – Follow Up – Could Fall into a Similar Fate as past Large JP Secondary Deals
  • Morning Views Asia: Road King Infrastructure, Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd
  • Lululemon (LULU) – Thursday, Apr 4, 2024
  • Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.: Strategic Restaurant Expansion
  • D’Ieteren Group Sa (DIE.BR) – Thursday, Apr 4, 2024


Big ¥500bn Honda (7267) Offering Is Small

By Travis Lundy

  • Just pre-close on 2 July, Reuters carried an article suggesting a ¥500bn secondary offering in Honda Motor (7267 JP) as insurers sold. The stock fell 4% in minutes. 
  • Honda semi-confirmed but it took two days to get to the details, now out. The stock climbed in the meantime. 
  • At launch, this deal is two-thirds covered by buyback + passive demand but the supply is heavily-weighted to retail. Cheaper than it looks, lots of moving parts. Read the details!

JAPAN ACTIVISM: Strategic Capital Target Daido (3205) Now A Murakami Target Too

By Travis Lundy

  • Small cap Japanese manufacturer and purveyor of apparel Daidoh Ltd (3205 JP) has consistently been a target for value investors. In late 2022, Strategic Capital went over 5%.
  • They have bought more, and as of end-March, they declared 24.85% of TSO (28% of voting rights), but they have 33%. They made proposals for the AGM. They won one. 
  • Now Murakami-san has bought in, going over 5%. This gets interesting. Together they have 39.4% as of last week, and probably more now. That should get them 50+% next AGM/EGM.

Honda (7267 JP): A US$3.3 Billion Secondary Offering

By Arun George

  • Honda Motor (7267 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 298.9 million shares (including overallotment). At the close, the offer, including overallotment, is worth JPY535 billion (US$3.3 million).
  • The offering is another sign that the unwinding of cross-shareholdings is catching pace as part of Japan’s corporate governance reforms.
  • Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 17 and 22 July (likely 17 July).

Honda Motor Placement – Large in Size, Relatively Small in Other Terms

By Sumeet Singh

  • A group of shareholders aims to raise up to US$3.2bn via selling around 5% of Honda Motor (7267 JP) .
  • The possibility of such a selldown was flagged earlier in the week by Reuters. Thus, the deal is well flagged.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

The Beat Ideas- Dollar Industries: A Tech-Driven Transformation in the Innerwear Market

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Dollar has 15% market share in the Indian hosiery space with 2,000 products
  • Strategically expanding the Distribution network by targeting specific areas with Lakshya   
  • Integrated value chain from Spinning to stitching to marketing and distribution

Aisin Corp Placement – Follow Up – Could Fall into a Similar Fate as past Large JP Secondary Deals

By Clarence Chu


Morning Views Asia: Road King Infrastructure, Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Lululemon (LULU) – Thursday, Apr 4, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Strong candidate for shorting in the short-run, potential to miss revenue consensus by 4-5ppt in Q1 2024
  • Recommendation to short LULU US when share price is above USD410, price target of USD300 before next earnings date in May 2024
  • Lululemon is a leading brand in women’s indoor training and yoga, overvalued and likely to see a decline in share price

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.: Strategic Restaurant Expansion

By Baptista Research

  • Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. recently discussed its financial performance for the first quarter of 2024, highlighting both favorable outcomes and challenges that depict a mixed fiscal environment.
  • The company, a major player in the fast-food industry in Latin America and the Caribbean, operates primarily under the McDonald’s brand, holding exclusive rights to own, operate, and grant franchises in 20 countries.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

D’Ieteren Group Sa (DIE.BR) – Thursday, Apr 4, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • D’Ieteren Group plans to unlock value through an IPO of its majority-controlled subsidiary, Belron
  • Belron is a leader in the global auto glass and repair industry with strong market shares and impressive operating margins
  • Appointment of Carlos Brito as CEO signals focus on international expansion and recent investments value Belron at €17.5Bn, offering upside potential for D’Ieteren shareholders

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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