Category

Daily Briefs

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Lumir, China Tower , Hon Hai Precision Industry, Eltek , Global Payments, Hubspot Inc, IPS Inc, Kulicke And Soffa Industries,, Viasat Inc, Warner Bros Discovery and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Lumir IPO Preview
  • FXI Rebalance Preview: China Tower (788 HK) Could Replace CICC (3908 HK)
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (20-Aug-2024): Regional production helps Foxconn.
  • ELTK: Eltek releases 2nd quarter 2024 financial results. The company also provided updates on market trends and its capacity improvement program. We maintain our price target of 18.00 per share.
  • Global Payments Inc: Expanding Integrated Solutions & Recent Acquisitions Driving Our ‘Buy’ Rating! – Major Drivers
  • HubSpot Inc.: These 7 Factors Are Driving Our Optimism! – Financial Forecasts
  • IPS Inc (4390 JP): Initial Coverage,Q1 FY03/25 flash update
  • Kulicke and Soffa Industries: Expansion in Thermocompression Bonding & Hybrid Bonding Technologies & Other Major Drivers
  • Viasat Inc.: A Story Of Revenue Growth and Diversification through Direct-to-Device Initiatives! – Major Drivers
  • Warner Bros. Discovery Inc.: A Tale Of Robust Content Pipeline & IP Monetization! – Major Drivers


Lumir IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Lumir is getting ready to complete its IPO on KOSDAQ in September. The IPO which is expected to raise between 49.5 billion won to 61.5 billion won.
  • Lumir specializes in the development of observation satellite technology including image data processing devices and onboard computers for a number of government satellite series.
  • Lumir had sales of 12.1 billion won (up 90.5% YoY) in 2023. Its sales surged by 477% YoY to reach 8.2 billion won in 1H24.

FXI Rebalance Preview: China Tower (788 HK) Could Replace CICC (3908 HK)

By Brian Freitas


Tech Supply Chain Tracker (20-Aug-2024): Regional production helps Foxconn.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Foxconn benefits from regionalized production with improved efficiency, reduced shipping costs, and better supply chain integration.
  • AMEC is confident in their lawsuit against the US Department of Defense, showing strong belief in the merit of their legal case.
  • Japan’s economy faces uncertainty with financial resources at risk after Kishida’s resignation, raising concerns amidst the country’s economic landscape and supply chain players cautiously optimistic about AI server boom.

ELTK: Eltek releases 2nd quarter 2024 financial results. The company also provided updates on market trends and its capacity improvement program. We maintain our price target of 18.00 per share.

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Eltek Ltd is an established manufacturer of Printed Circuit Boards (PCBs) that is entering a new growth phase due to increases in manufacturing capacity and potential M&A transactions.
  • The company has the potential to grow both revenues and earnings at double-digit growth rates for the foreseeable future if they can execute on their accelerated investment program and maintain technological superiority.
  • The company maintains a strong balance sheet and generates free cash flow.

Global Payments Inc: Expanding Integrated Solutions & Recent Acquisitions Driving Our ‘Buy’ Rating! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Global Payments delivered mixed results in its second quarter of 2024.
  • The company reported a 6% adjusted net revenue growth or 7% excluding the impact from the divestiture of Netspend’s consumer assets, with adjusted earnings per share growing by 12%.
  • Operationally, Global Payments advanced its market positioning through strategic expansions and solution rollouts across varied verticals.

HubSpot Inc.: These 7 Factors Are Driving Our Optimism! – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • HubSpot, in its Q2 2024 earnings presentation, portrayed a complex yet promising landscape, balancing solid growth with strategic adjustments in response to market conditions.
  • The company reported a 21% year-over-year revenue growth in constant currency, backed by a surge in its customer base to 228,000, marking an addition of over 11,200 net customers within the quarter.
  • This growth trajectory was underpinned by enhanced operational efficiencies resulting in a notable improvement in operating margins, expanded by 270 basis points year-over year to 17%.

IPS Inc (4390 JP): Initial Coverage,Q1 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue reached JPY3.7bn (+47.5% YoY), with increases in Global Telecommunications but declines in Domestic Telecommunications and Medical & Healthcare.
  • Operating profit was JPY760mn (+84.0% YoY), with cost ratio falling 7.1pp YoY and SG&A ratio rising 3.0pp YoY.
  • Foreign exchange gains of JPY350mn were booked in Q1 FY03/25 due to valuation of foreign currency-denominated receivables and payables.

Kulicke and Soffa Industries: Expansion in Thermocompression Bonding & Hybrid Bonding Technologies & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Kulicke and Soffa Industries Inc., a global provider of semiconductor assembly equipment, reported its fiscal third quarter 2024 results with a focus on strategic growth initiatives and progress in various sectors.
  • The company has been actively working in areas such as advanced packaging, advanced dispense qualifications, and adopting new ball bonding solutions.
  • During the earnings call, the company highlighted its involvement with the U.S.-Joint semiconductor consortium, aiming to foster collaboration in advanced packaging production solutions.

Viasat Inc.: A Story Of Revenue Growth and Diversification through Direct-to-Device Initiatives! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Viasat, Inc. recently delivered its Q1 FY 2025 earnings results, reporting an encouraging uptick in year-over-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth, reflecting a positive development.
  • The company showcased a strategic focus in strengthening its capital structure and continues to make significant investments to set the stage for a promising future.
  • Specifically, the enhancements include expected activations in aviation, robust defense and advanced technology orders, and a strong existing and prospective order pipeline, which have collectively allowed Viasat to elevate its fiscal year outlook.

Warner Bros. Discovery Inc.: A Tale Of Robust Content Pipeline & IP Monetization! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • In the second quarter of 2024, Warner Bros. Discovery navigated a mixed environment marked by significant achievements and prevailing market challenges, reflecting the complex visibility of its transition phase two years post its launch.
  • The direct-to-consumer (DTC) segment exhibited robust performance, highlighted by impressive international subscriber growth initiated by the strategic timing of Max’s launch in Europe to coincide with the Olympic Games.
  • This geographical expansion has fundamentally bolstered Warner Bros. Discovery’s position as a formidable player on the global streaming scene, leveraging large-scale live events to drive subscriber engagement and growth.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Steel, Copper, Wheaton Precious Metals, Nutrien , Cf Industries Holdings, Marathon Oil, TMC the metals co, Western Midstream Partners LP, Kolibri Global Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Making a Drama Out of a Steel Crisis
  • Copper Inventories Back at Pre-Covid Levels & Oil Demand Cuts Everywhere
  • Wheaton Precious Metals Corp.: Is The Risk of Over-dependence on Key Projects That Significant? – Major Drivers
  • Nutrien Ltd.: Expansion in Proprietary Products and Digital Solutions! – Major Drivers
  • CF Industries: Dealing With Geopolitical and International Market Dynamics! – Major Drivers
  • Marathon Oil Corporation: These Are The 4 Pivotal Factors Driving Our Optimism! – Financial Forecasts
  • TMC: 2Q24 Highlights and Continuing Progress Toward Commercialization
  • Western Midstream Partners: Increased Presence in Key Basins Catapulting Growth! – Major Drivers
  • Kolibri Global Energy – Longer laterals are a potential game changer


Making a Drama Out of a Steel Crisis

By BMO Equity Research Metal Matters

  • China’s steel industry is facing significant challenges, including price drops, overcapacity, and government intervention
  • Steel producers are preparing for potential consolidation and supply side reforms to address the industry crisis
  • Iron ore prices have also been impacted by the challenges in the steel market, with expectations for lower Chinese imports and domestic output

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Copper Inventories Back at Pre-Covid Levels & Oil Demand Cuts Everywhere

By The Commodity Report

  • During last week, the International Energy Association (IEA) as well as OPEC both announced that demand for oil is slowing, revising down previous demand forecasts for the year and beyond.
  • The world is seeing a major deceleration in oil demand growth led by China, with inventories set to rise next year even if OPEC+ were to postpone its plans to ease output cuts, the IEA stated.
  • Meanwhile, the growth from the US won’t be able to offset the slowdown from China, according to the agency.

Wheaton Precious Metals Corp.: Is The Risk of Over-dependence on Key Projects That Significant? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Wheaton Precious Metals has reported its second quarter results for 2024, demonstrating a robust financial and operational performance, reflecting the company’s successful business model and strategic asset management.
  • The company generated $234 million in operating cash flows and reached a record of over $450 million for the first half of the year.
  • Wheaton Precious Metals produced over 305,000 gold equivalent ounces year-to-date, keeping on track with the 2024 production guidance of 550,000 to 620,000 gold equivalent ounces.

Nutrien Ltd.: Expansion in Proprietary Products and Digital Solutions! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Nutrien recently reported its financial results for the first half of 2024, highlighted by mixed performances across its various segments.
  • The company, a global leader in providing crop inputs and services, recorded an adjusted EBITDA of $3.3 billion, driven by increased crop input margins, strong global demand for potash, and lower operating costs.
  • Potash segment performance was robust in terms of volume but faced challenges from lower benchmark prices which were partly offset by reduced production costs due to increased mine automation.

CF Industries: Dealing With Geopolitical and International Market Dynamics! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • CF Industries reported notable operational and financial results for the first half and second quarter of 2024, reflecting strong performance despite a mix of ongoing challenges and strategic advancements.
  • The company, a major player in the nitrogen fertilizer industry, generated an adjusted EBITDA of $750 million for the quarter, bringing the figure to $1.2 billion for the half-year period.
  • Key drivers included robust operational rates at ammonia plants, particularly the Waggaman facility which outperformed expectations, and significant strides in its decarbonization initiatives which include several carbon capture and sequestration projects.

Marathon Oil Corporation: These Are The 4 Pivotal Factors Driving Our Optimism! – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • Marathon Oil Corporation reported its first quarter 2024 earnings with several important takeaways underlining its current and future financial health.
  • The company successfully navigated the quarter, showcasing a strong financial and operational performance while continuing to make strategic enhancements to its asset base, aiming for a resilient and sustainable business model.
  • In the past earnings results, Marathon Oil strongly emphasized its commitment to executing a capital-efficient strategy, delivering significant free cash flows, and providing meaningful returns to shareholders.

TMC: 2Q24 Highlights and Continuing Progress Toward Commercialization

By Water Tower Research

  • 2Q24 costs increased Y/Y but declined Q/Q.
  • TMC reported 2Q24 operating results that included higher exportation and evaluation expense of $12.4 million versus $8.1 million in 2Q23 due to increased spending on mining, technological and process development costs associated with increased engineering work with its offshore partner Allseas, and a modest increase in G&A expenses ($7.9 million versus $5.1 million in the year-ago period) due to higher share-based compensation and personnel costs.
  • As a result, quarterly loss increased to $20.2 million from $14.1 million in 2Q23, with EPS of ($0.06) versus ($0.05) in 2Q23.

Western Midstream Partners: Increased Presence in Key Basins Catapulting Growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Western Midstream Partners has recently reported a robust quarter, continuing its momentum into the second quarter of 2024.
  • The company saw significant throughput growth, largely driven by the robust operability of its systems, setting records in the Delaware Basin for natural gas and crude oil, along with natural gas liquids.
  • This marks the fifth consecutive quarter of records for these metrics.

Kolibri Global Energy – Longer laterals are a potential game changer

By Edison Investment Research

Kolibri Global Energy (KEI) reported Q224 results that saw double-digit increases across all financial and operating metrics on a y-o-y basis, with production and EBITDA up 37% and 40%, respectively. Sequentially, EBITDA fell 7%, while netback was 5% higher at US$40/bbl. KEI has started drilling three new 1.5-mile lateral wells, slated for completion in early Q4. If successful, these wells could potentially see an up to 1.5x increase in production rates and lead to a change in the field development plan. We have updated our valuation to US$6.9/share as we await more details about the performance of the new wells and KEI’s next steps. The potential change in field development strategy is yet to be priced in by the market.


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Daily Brief Industrials: JD Logistics , Rockwell Automation, Sodick Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • JD Logistics (2618 HK): There Are More Rooms
  • Rockwell Automation: Expansion of Partnership with NVIDIA & Key Developments – Major Drivers
  • Sodick (6143) – An Upbeat Result Reflecting Transformational Efforts


JD Logistics (2618 HK): There Are More Rooms

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Even after the 28% surge in share price since the 1H24 result, JD Logistics (2618 HK) still deserves a look as fundamentals have improved, especially with better cost control.
  • JDL is riding on scale economies with higher asset utilisation. Quarterly margins have sustained an uptrend, reaching the highest levels since 1Q21 and it will continue.
  • We like its lower reliance on JD.com (9618 HK) and net cash of HK$2.83/share (28% of the share price). There is a massive upside in consensus forecasts too.

Rockwell Automation: Expansion of Partnership with NVIDIA & Key Developments – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Rockwell Automation’s latest quarterly earnings underscore both strengths and challenges within its business environment, indicating a mixed financial landscape that investors need to consider.
  • On the positive side, Rockwell Automation has shown adeptness in managing costs amidst lower order volumes, which has helped sustain margin performance.
  • The company has continued to push forward with its cost-cutting initiatives, anticipating $100 million in savings in the latter half of this fiscal year, alongside projections for an additional $120 million in savings next year.

Sodick (6143) – An Upbeat Result Reflecting Transformational Efforts

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Q1-2FY12/24 results were a positive surprise in our view.
  • Quarterly Q2 FY12/24 OPM of 4% returned to positive territory after four consecutive quarters of losses, driven by a combination of price hikes, revision to the product line-up to improve sales mix, restructuring measures, and sales volume expansion with a marked jump in China demand for electronic discharge machines.
  • We believe Sodick has begun to transform to become more resilient and operationally efficient. 

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Daily Brief Health Care: Peptron, Grifols , Jeisys Medical, VIOL , Medtide, SIGA Technologies, LogicMark , Achieve Life Sciences , Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Bio Techne Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Peptron Rights Issue: The 25% Discount Is an Attractive Outright Position Opportunity
  • Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: August‘24 Report
  • Archimed Group Seeks Delisting of Jeisys Medical Through Stock Exchange
  • KOSDAQ150 Index Adhoc Rebalance Preview: Replacements for Jeisys Medical
  • Pre-IPO Medtide – The Industry, the Business and the Concerns
  • SIGA Technologies – PALM 007 data warrant a closer look in mpox
  • LGMK: Expanded Product Suite Includes Predictive, Preventive & Traditional Tools
  • ACHV: ORCA OL Enrolling at Rapid Pace
  • Zimmer Biomet Holdings Inc.: Enhanced Focus on Robotic & Cementless Technologies & Global Expansion! – Major Drivers
  • Bio-Techne Corporation: Enhanced Investment in Molecular Diagnostics


Peptron Rights Issue: The 25% Discount Is an Attractive Outright Position Opportunity

By Sanghyun Park

  • Peptron’s lack of single-stock futures means no risk-free arbitrage but also less speculative selling, making the 25% discount an attractive outright position opportunity.
  • The low capital increase rate may stabilize the stock price, and more forfeited shares could lower the cost of securing subscription rights during the trading window.
  • Consider buying rights during the trading period or targeting forfeited shares. Conservatively estimate the final offering price range to set a profitable cost for securing rights.

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: August‘24 Report

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Since mid-July, share-price spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 8 widened, 2 remained at same level).
  • Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Grifols SA (GRF SM) (see section on the company), Media-for-Europe, Sixt.
  • Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.

Archimed Group Seeks Delisting of Jeisys Medical Through Stock Exchange

By Douglas Kim

  • Jeisys Medical announced that it has decided to exchange shares with Syracus Subco, its largest shareholder. The stock exchange ratio between Syracus Subco and Jeisys Medical is 1 to 1.3575606. 
  • The exchange date is 23 October. Through this stock exchange, Archimed Group (owner of Syracus Subco) seeks to delist Jeisys Medical (287410 KS).
  • Jeisys Medical also announced that it plans to cancel 1,075,838 common shares, representing 1.4% of its outstanding shares. 

KOSDAQ150 Index Adhoc Rebalance Preview: Replacements for Jeisys Medical

By Brian Freitas


Pre-IPO Medtide – The Industry, the Business and the Concerns

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Medtide relies heavily on limited number of customers to contribute performance. If there is any significant reduction in demand by its major customers, Medtide’s performance growth would be materially/adversely affected.
  • Due to geopolitical conflicts, pharmaceutical companies are becoming more cautious about their reliance on China CXO. So, the development of Medtide’s overseas business would become more uncertain in this context.
  • Medtide’s business scale is still small and its position in the global peptide CXO industry is not as strong as described. Valuation of Medtide should be lower than peers.

SIGA Technologies – PALM 007 data warrant a closer look in mpox

By Edison Investment Research

Although the topline results of PALM 007 (studying SIGA’s tecovirimat in the treatment of mpox) did not meet the statistical significance for the full population (primary endpoint), we are encouraged by the clinically meaningful benefit reported over placebo in early-treated patients and in those with severe disease. The data highlight an opportunity to establish an effective regime for these key populations, given the lack of effective treatment options and the overall importance of early treatment in infectious diseases. PALM 007 was not a registrational study, and SIGA’s priorities in mpox are the four remaining ongoing studies targeting this indication, which may potentially support a mpox label in the US. Currently, tecovirimat is approved for mpox treatment in the EU and UK.


LGMK: Expanded Product Suite Includes Predictive, Preventive & Traditional Tools

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • LGMK has expanded its product portfolio with recently launched Freedom Alert Plus, Freedom Alert Mini & Aster.
  • Incorporating both predictive and preventive tools as it innovates, new product features include advanced fall detection, geofencing for memory care, connected cloud & caretaker app support, sensors and AI / ML (machine learning), among others.
  • By leveraging enhanced sensors, algorithms and ML technology to analyze movement patterns + other relevant data, LGMK technology can detect pattern changes that might indicate potential for falls (predictive technology), as well as provide health communications such as medicine reminders (preventative technology).

ACHV: ORCA OL Enrolling at Rapid Pace

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Achieve Life Sciences is developing cytisinicline for use as a smoking cessation treatment in the United States and rest of world.
  • Topline results from ORCA-2 were reported in April 2022 and for ORCA-3 in May 2023.
  • Results exceeded expectations on safety & efficacy parameters.

Zimmer Biomet Holdings Inc.: Enhanced Focus on Robotic & Cementless Technologies & Global Expansion! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc.’s most recent quarterly performance reflects a steadied progress in its growth trajectory and continuous strategic advancements, though it faced specific challenges during the period.
  • The company reported a year-over-year revenue growth of 5.6% on a constant currency basis for the second quarter of 2024.
  • This marks Zimmer Biomet’s tenth consecutive quarter of mid-single-digit or higher growth.

Bio-Techne Corporation: Enhanced Investment in Molecular Diagnostics

By Baptista Research

  • Bio-Techne Corporation recently held its earnings call for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2024, during which the company announced in-line financial results with modest organic revenue growth of 1% year-over-year.
  • This growth came amidst market stabilization and strategic execution by the company despite a complex external environment that included reduced biotech funding and significant budget recalibrations from large pharmaceutical entities and academia.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Seven & I Holdings, Alibaba Group Holding , 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings, Zomato, Grab Holdings , Pan Pacific International Holdings, China Resources Beer Holdings, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Duolingo and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • MEGA M&A! 7&I (3382 JP) Gets Non-Binding Bid from Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)
  • Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Couche-Tard “friendly” Proposal Likely to Go Nowhere
  • China Consumption Weekly (19Aug2024): China Literature, BEKE, Alibaba, JD, JD Health, Tencent Music
  • 99 Speed Mart IPO: The Bull Case
  • Zomato Placement – Momentum Is Very Strong, past Ant Related Deals Have Been Mixed
  • Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – Product-Led Sequential Growth Ahead
  • Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP): Full-year FY06/24 flash update
  • China Resources Beer Holdings – Interim Results Show Progress but Macro Headwinds Remain
  • Amidst Changes in Purpose of Policy Shareholdings, We Should Note Whether They Are Really Decreasing
  • Duolingo Inc.: Expansion of Motion Design Capabilities by Acquiring Hobbes & Other Major Drivers


MEGA M&A! 7&I (3382 JP) Gets Non-Binding Bid from Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, part-way through the day, the Nikkei ran an article saying that Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) had made a confidential non-binding proposal to buy Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP)
  • 7&i shares obviously went up (limit up in a hurry, staying there, large size traded limit up at close). 
  • Now things get complicated. 7&i has said they received a non-binding proposal for all the shares. There will be a Special Committee of all Independent Directors. All stakeholders will matter. 

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Couche-Tard “friendly” Proposal Likely to Go Nowhere

By Arun George

  • Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) shares rose 22.7% as it confirmed media reports that it had received a confidential, non-binding preliminary proposal from Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)
  • The interest is unsurprising due to the weak share price performance. Since ValueAct’s open letter on 25 January 2022, the shares are up 5.2% vs. the Nikkei 225 up 38.0%.
  • Couche-Tard aims for a friendly offer, which is challenging as it requires support from the founder’s family and the Japanese government. Therefore, the probability of a binding proposal is low.  

China Consumption Weekly (19Aug2024): China Literature, BEKE, Alibaba, JD, JD Health, Tencent Music

By Ming Lu

  • China Literature’s revenue increased by 28% YoY in 1H24, because four novel copyrights for movies brought box office hits.
  • KE revenue increased by 20% YoY in 2Q24 compared with a 19% YoY decrease in 1Q24, as government policies supported existing home transaction.
  • Alibaba announced that it will recruit 1,000 fresh graduates for tech positions in 2025.

99 Speed Mart IPO: The Bull Case

By Arun George

  • 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings (99SPD MK), a leading groceries retailer in Malaysia, is seeking to raise US$530 million at RM1.65 per share.    
  • 99 Speed Mart is Malaysia’s largest mini-market player and leading grocery retailer, holding a market share of 40.1% and 11.6% in 2023, respectively. 
  • The bull case rests on a large TAM, rising market share, robust revenue growth underpinned by SSSG, a store expansion-driven growth strategy, profitability, cash generation, and modest leverage.   

Zomato Placement – Momentum Is Very Strong, past Ant Related Deals Have Been Mixed

By Sumeet Singh

  • AntFin is looking to raise around US$400m by selling around 2% of Zomato (ZOMATO IN).
  • Ant Group had earlier sold some of its stake in Nov 2023 and Mar 2024, with the deals producing a mixed bag result.
  • In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – Product-Led Sequential Growth Ahead

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Grab Holdings booked record GMV, revenue, FCF, MTUs, and EBITDA in 2Q2024 and flagged an optimistic outlook for 2H2024, with positive adjusted FCF expected to remain positive for FY2024.  
  • The company continues to focus on its product-led and technology-driven initiatives to drive growth and profitability through mass-market and high-value products such as Grab Unlimited, advance bookings, and group bookings.
  • Concerns over competition from TikTok look overblown, with Grab already active on social media. Management expects positive sequential growth for the next 2Qs and a stronger growth outlook in FY2025,

Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP): Full-year FY06/24 flash update

By Shared Research

  • FY06/24 results: Sales JPY2,095.1bn (+8.2% YoY), operating profit JPY140.2bn (+33.2% YoY), net income JPY88.7bn (+34.1% YoY).
  • FY06/25 forecast: Sales JPY2,220.0bn (+6.0% YoY), operating profit JPY150.0bn (+7.0% YoY), net income JPY86.5bn (-2.5% YoY).
  • Store count end-June 2024: 742 total, 632 domestic, 110 overseas; 24 new stores in Japan, 12 overseas.

China Resources Beer Holdings – Interim Results Show Progress but Macro Headwinds Remain

By Rikki Malik

  • The company’s strategy of premiumisation continues to be executed to plan
  • Despite the derating, investors will wait until seeing concrete signs of a turn in the Chinese consumer
  • Continues to be a liquid proxy for Chinese consumption with no technology regulation risk

Amidst Changes in Purpose of Policy Shareholdings, We Should Note Whether They Are Really Decreasing

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The increase in foreign ownership and the decline in cross-shareholdings have encouraged management reform. In order for engagement to be effective, it is essential to further reduce cross shareholdings.
  • Reasonable explanation of the reasons for such transfers as changes in the purpose of policy shareholding or contributions to retirement benefit trust must be provided in the annual securities report.
  • Rising stock prices increase the value of policy shareholdings. To accelerate the reduction of policy shareholdings, numerical targets should be published, such as by setting milestones.

Duolingo Inc.: Expansion of Motion Design Capabilities by Acquiring Hobbes & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Duolingo Inc., a leader in language learning platforms, demonstrated robust performance in its second quarter of 2024 financial results, showcasing a balanced mix of high growth, increased user engagement, and strategic milestones that solidifies its market position while highlighting areas for prudence looking ahead.
  • The company reported a significant year-over-year growth in daily active users (DAUs) at 59% and revenues surged by 41%.
  • This robust top-line growth is supported by key product expansions and user engagement strategies.

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Daily Brief Financials: Swire Pacific (A), Star Asia Investment, National Australia Bank, Wharf Real Estate Investment C, NZD, Hero FinCorp, JDC Group AG and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • HK CEO & Director Dealings (19th Aug 2024): Merlin Selling Swire Pac/Props; Chans Buying Hang Lung
  • Star Asia Investment Corp Placement – Needs a Decent Correction Leading up to Pricing
  • NAB – Profit Slightly Down in 3Q, Credit Costs Collapsed, but Bad Loans Are Rising Significantly
  • Wharf REIC: Beta Play W Multiple Catalysts, Lower Rates, Weaker Currency and Returning of Shoppers
  • Global FX: Fed easing and dollar weakness: uneasy bedfellows
  • Hero Fincorp Pre-IPO – The Positives – Riding on the Parent’s Brand
  • JDC Group – Gaining a firm foothold in commercial insurers


HK CEO & Director Dealings (19th Aug 2024): Merlin Selling Swire Pac/Props; Chans Buying Hang Lung

By David Blennerhassett


Star Asia Investment Corp Placement – Needs a Decent Correction Leading up to Pricing

By Ethan Aw

  • Star Asia Investment (3468 JP) is looking to raise around US$118m in its primary follow-on offering to acquire four hotels. The acquisition will amount to a total of JPY34.7bn (US$237.5m). 
  • The deal is a somewhat large one to digest, at 83 days of three month ADV and 13.3% of TSO .
  • In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

NAB – Profit Slightly Down in 3Q, Credit Costs Collapsed, but Bad Loans Are Rising Significantly

By Daniel Tabbush

  • NAB reported its 3Q24 results with slightly lower profit, but major divergence inside the figures
  • The bank shows a staggering decline in credit costs in 3Q24, which means the results were flattered
  • This is despite a very sharp rise in bad loans in major segments, corporate and residential mortgages, up around 50% YoY annualized in 3Q24

Wharf REIC: Beta Play W Multiple Catalysts, Lower Rates, Weaker Currency and Returning of Shoppers

By Jacob Cheng

  • Wharf REIC reported 2% yoy core earnings growth, the first earnings increase since 2019. The results also show Hong Kong retail business is more resilient than expected
  • The upcoming catalysts include 1) lower interest rates, 2) weakening currency environment and 3) bottoming out of HK retail market
  • Market is forward-looking and we think the worst is behind us.  Valuation is very compelling.  The stock is a beta play.  BUY

Global FX: Fed easing and dollar weakness: uneasy bedfellows

By At Any Rate

  • Market pricing reflects less Fed cuts than previously expected, with uncertainty surrounding the impact on the dollar
  • RBNZ rate cut delivered as expected, leading to potential further kiwi weakness
  • Labor market data and rate pricing are key factors to watch for potential future movements in FX markets

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Hero Fincorp Pre-IPO – The Positives – Riding on the Parent’s Brand

By Sumeet Singh

  • Hero FinCorp (HF) is looking to raise around US$438m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • HF is a non-deposit taking NBFC. It offers a suite of financial products catering primarily to the retail segment and the MSME customer segment in India.
  • In this note, we talk about the positive aspets of the deal.

JDC Group – Gaining a firm foothold in commercial insurers

By Edison Investment Research

JDC Group’s (JDC’s) H124 results were strong, with organic revenue growth close to 20% and an EBITDA margin of 6.5% (H123: 6%). Management reiterated its FY24 guidance of €205–220m of revenue and €14.5–16m for EBITDA. Given JDC’s H124 performance, we have increased our estimates to the high end of the range. With an FY25e EV/EBITDA multiple of 11.9x (based on our estimates), we believe our valuation is undemanding, certainly compared to platform peers. Our discounted cash flow (DCF) values JDC at €38.20 per share (€34.04/share previously).


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Most Read: Seven & I Holdings, Tokyo Metro, Weimob Inc., Apple , PropertyGuru , Peptron, Lumir, China Tower and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • MEGA M&A! 7&I (3382 JP) Gets Non-Binding Bid from Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)
  • Tokyo Metro IPO Early Look – Could Raise Around US$2bn While Still Recovering from COVID
  • Hang Seng Internet & IT Index Rebalance: Three Changes & A Few Surprises
  • Apple Inc (AAPL US): $43bn Passive Buying Driven by Berkshire Selling & Market Consultation
  • Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Couche-Tard “friendly” Proposal Likely to Go Nowhere
  • Apple (AAPL): Berkshire’s Sell-Off Triggers $37bn Demand from S&P 500
  • EQT’s Offer For PropertyGuru (NYSE:PGRU): As Clean As It Gets
  • Peptron Rights Issue: The 25% Discount Is an Attractive Outright Position Opportunity
  • Lumir IPO Preview
  • FXI Rebalance Preview: China Tower (788 HK) Could Replace CICC (3908 HK)


MEGA M&A! 7&I (3382 JP) Gets Non-Binding Bid from Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, part-way through the day, the Nikkei ran an article saying that Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) had made a confidential non-binding proposal to buy Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP)
  • 7&i shares obviously went up (limit up in a hurry, staying there, large size traded limit up at close). 
  • Now things get complicated. 7&i has said they received a non-binding proposal for all the shares. There will be a Special Committee of all Independent Directors. All stakeholders will matter. 

Tokyo Metro IPO Early Look – Could Raise Around US$2bn While Still Recovering from COVID

By Sumeet Singh

  • Tokyo Metro (TKYMETRO JP)’s shareholders, the Japanese and Tokyo Metropolitan Governments, could look to raise up to US$2bn by selling half of their stake via an IPO.
  • Tokyo Metro is one of the two metro network operators in the Tokyo region. It operates nine subway lines.
  • In this note, we take an early look at the possible listing.

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index Rebalance: Three Changes & A Few Surprises

By Brian Freitas

  • There will be 3 changes for the Hang Seng Internet & Information Technology Index (HSIII) at the September rebalance. There are some surprises.
  • Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 3.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$2.04bn (US$262m). 7 stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade.
  • Weimob Inc. (2013 HK) is a surprise add. There is 6x ADV to buy from passive trackers and shorts are 12% of shares out and 24x ADV to cover.

Apple Inc (AAPL US): $43bn Passive Buying Driven by Berkshire Selling & Market Consultation

By Brian Freitas


Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Couche-Tard “friendly” Proposal Likely to Go Nowhere

By Arun George

  • Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) shares rose 22.7% as it confirmed media reports that it had received a confidential, non-binding preliminary proposal from Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)
  • The interest is unsurprising due to the weak share price performance. Since ValueAct’s open letter on 25 January 2022, the shares are up 5.2% vs. the Nikkei 225 up 38.0%.
  • Couche-Tard aims for a friendly offer, which is challenging as it requires support from the founder’s family and the Japanese government. Therefore, the probability of a binding proposal is low.  

Apple (AAPL): Berkshire’s Sell-Off Triggers $37bn Demand from S&P 500

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • Free float is forecasted to increase from ~94% to 100% in S&P 500 and other US and Global indices after Berkshire halved its stake in Apple (AAPL US) .
  • Forecasted demand from S&P 500 and S&P TMI is 164.2m shares, $37.1bn and 3.0 ADV at the close of 20 September 2024.
  • Materialization of the free float increase is uncertain due to debatable strategic shareholder classification. ETF ratios and current free float improve the confidence of the forecast. 

EQT’s Offer For PropertyGuru (NYSE:PGRU): As Clean As It Gets

By David Blennerhassett

  • Listed on the 18th March 2022 at US$8.33/share, Singaporean-based online real estate portal PropertyGuru (PGRU US) has now announced a US$6.70/share cash Offer from Sweden’s EQT AB.
  • That backs out a premium to undisturbed of 52%. Media speculation of a takeover for the TPG/KKR-backed PropertyGuru first surfaced around the 21st May this year. 
  • TPG and KKR, collectively holding ~56.1%, are supportive. REA Group Ltd (REA AU), holding 17.2%, is also on board. The key Offer condition is two-thirds of shareholders approving terms.

Peptron Rights Issue: The 25% Discount Is an Attractive Outright Position Opportunity

By Sanghyun Park

  • Peptron’s lack of single-stock futures means no risk-free arbitrage but also less speculative selling, making the 25% discount an attractive outright position opportunity.
  • The low capital increase rate may stabilize the stock price, and more forfeited shares could lower the cost of securing subscription rights during the trading window.
  • Consider buying rights during the trading period or targeting forfeited shares. Conservatively estimate the final offering price range to set a profitable cost for securing rights.

Lumir IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Lumir is getting ready to complete its IPO on KOSDAQ in September. The IPO which is expected to raise between 49.5 billion won to 61.5 billion won.
  • Lumir specializes in the development of observation satellite technology including image data processing devices and onboard computers for a number of government satellite series.
  • Lumir had sales of 12.1 billion won (up 90.5% YoY) in 2023. Its sales surged by 477% YoY to reach 8.2 billion won in 1H24.

FXI Rebalance Preview: China Tower (788 HK) Could Replace CICC (3908 HK)

By Brian Freitas


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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Aug 16th): TSMC and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Aug 16th): TSMC, Fortune Elec, Hon Hai, Far Eastone Tele
  • Hong Kong Connect Flows (Aug 16th): Tencent, China Mobile
  • KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 16th): Samsung Electronics, Sk Hynix, Naver
  • Northbound Flows (Aug 16th): CATL
  • HK Short Interest Weekly: Baba, HSBC, Ntes, AIA, Bidu, Galaxy Ent
  • TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 16th): TSMC, Umc, Yageo, Evergreen Marine
  • A-H Premium Weekly (Aug 16th):Asymchem Lab, Air China, GAC Group, Hua Hong Semi


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Aug 16th): TSMC, Fortune Elec, Hon Hai, Far Eastone Tele

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Aug 16th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD19.4bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in TSMC, Fortune Elec, Hon Hai, Far Eastone Tele, Chunghwa Telecom.

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Aug 16th): Tencent, China Mobile

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of August 16th.
  • The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
  • We highlight flows for Tencent (700 HK) , China Mobile (941 HK) .

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 16th): Samsung Electronics, Sk Hynix, Naver

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Aug 16th which has an aggregated holding worth USD550.5bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD260mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We highlight foreign changes in Samsung Electronics, Sk Hynix, Naver.

Northbound Flows (Aug 16th): CATL

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of August 16th.
  • We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$600.9 million, led by materials, industrials, consumer discretionary, and offset by financials, communication services, health care.
  • Outflows were driven by Material, Industries and Consumer Discretionary sectors. We highlight flows for CATL (300750 CH).

HK Short Interest Weekly: Baba, HSBC, Ntes, AIA, Bidu, Galaxy Ent

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 9th.
  • Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
  • We highlight short changes in Baba, HSBC, Ntes, AIA, Bidu, Galaxy Ent.

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 16th): TSMC, Umc, Yageo, Evergreen Marine

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Aug 16th which has an aggregated holding worth USD955.9bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD2,501mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Umc, Yageo, Evergreen Marine.

A-H Premium Weekly (Aug 16th):Asymchem Lab, Air China, GAC Group, Hua Hong Semi

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 145 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 112.2% as of Aug 16th.
  • The average A-H premium changed by 0.9ppt week-on-week, led by health care, financials, utilities and offset by communication services, real estate.
  • We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Asymchem Lab, Air China, GAC Group, Hua Hong Semi.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Best Week of the Year and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Best Week of the Year
  • Japan Weekly | Stocks Surge; Fujikura, KHI, Rakus
  • Japan Morning Connection: Asahi Intecc, PPIH
  • Japan’s Retail Sector Grows Faster than 1990
  • A Few Signs Beyond Advertising Optimization In GAI Commercialization
  • Japan’s Retail Week: New Malls Slow, Lawson/Muji Get Closer, Donki Booms and Jobs for the over 80s


Ohayo Japan | Best Week of the Year

By Mark Chadwick

  • Stocks closed higher on Friday, capping the best week of the year for major indexes.
  • In the April-June quarter, 70% of surveyed Japanese companies exceeded profit forecasts
  • Japan’s anime and content exports, at 4.7 trillion yen annually, are nearing parity with the semiconductor industry’s 5.7 trillion yen

Japan Weekly | Stocks Surge; Fujikura, KHI, Rakus

By Mark Chadwick

  • This week, the S&P 500 surged 3.9%. The rally was driven by encouraging inflation data, robust retail sales, and lower-than-expected initial jobless claims
  • Japanese stocks saw a remarkable recovery this week, with the Nikkei surging over 3,000 points and posting gains for four consecutive trading days.
  • Fujikura’s stock surged 40% over the past week due to a positive market outlook driven by the rising demand for AI servers

Japan Morning Connection: Asahi Intecc, PPIH

By Andrew Jackson

  • Upbeat results briefing from Asahi Intecc on Friday continues to make this look oversold with GPM bottoming, its MTP 1-year ahead of plan and strong growth outlooks for key markets China and US.
  • With numbers out for PPIH on Friday and the outlook reassuringly steady, this may start to get more attention as NKY225 inclusion candidate given it comes from the under-represented consumer goods segment.
  • AMAT numbers showing a decline in China revenues a red flag for Japanese SPE names overly reliant on China sales?

Japan’s Retail Sector Grows Faster than 1990

By Michael Causton

  • Retailing is booming in Japan, backed by consumers getting out and about, buying enthusiastically and enjoying Japan’s shop-focused entertainment centres once again. 
  • Tourists are back in record numbers, with 3 million a month entering Japan since March and well over 30 million expected in 2024 overall.
  • Inflation remains a concern, but we’re two years into this round of price increases and consumers are becoming resigned to higher prices. FY2024 will be another excellent year.

A Few Signs Beyond Advertising Optimization In GAI Commercialization

By Eric Wen

  • From C1Q24 results we concluded that media platforms with large, untapped and preferably contextual traffic tend to benefit the most from Generative AI (GAI). C2Q24 largely trended the same line;
  • But Google is experimenting with inserting ads above or below the AI Overview Box. We hold reservation on the result but Baidu can likely copy;
  • New growth emerged in AI Agent with API calls on Microsoft Azure, Google, Linked-In and Snap showing accelerated sequential growth. AI agent is likely the next hot spot in GAI.

Japan’s Retail Week: New Malls Slow, Lawson/Muji Get Closer, Donki Booms and Jobs for the over 80s

By Michael Causton

  • Last week in Japan’s retail sector: continued weakness in shopping mall development due to both falling demand from tenants and competition from online.
  • Don Quijote operator, Pan Pacific posted strong results, reflecting high demand from both locals looking for value and tourists browsing for fun.
  • The retail sector had a record year in FY23, but a big constraint is the labour shortage but, with many fit older Japanese, some employees are now over 80. 

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Time To Buy China/Gold and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Time To Buy China/Gold


Time To Buy China/Gold

By Douglas Busch

  • Gold breaks above MONTHLY bull flag suggesting possible move to 3000.
  • Is China ready to duplicate prior move we witnessed in Nikkei?
  • BABA looks technically attractive and could reach par by year-end.

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