Category

Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Financials: Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index, Hang Seng Index, Morguard Real Estate Investmen and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Impact of Kim Byung-Hwan’s Appointment as Korea FSC Chairman on Value-Up Policy
  • EQD | Will the HSI Keep Falling In July?
  • Morguard Real Estate Invt Tr (MRT.UN) – Friday, Apr 5, 2024


Impact of Kim Byung-Hwan’s Appointment as Korea FSC Chairman on Value-Up Policy

By Sanghyun Park

  • Kim Byung-hwan addressed criticism of weak incentives in tax support for the value-up policy, emphasizing boosting dividends. His background suggests effective advocacy for tax reforms in his new role.
  • He prioritized abolishing the FIIT in the National Assembly, citing its hindrance to capital market liquidity and investment promotion, indicating a robust approach to the value-up policy.
  • Kim’s appointment as FSC Chairman signals the government’s commitment to advancing the value-up policy. He emphasizes boosting dividends and aligning tax policies accordingly, shaping trading strategies toward dividend-expanding companies.

EQD | Will the HSI Keep Falling In July?

By Nico Rosti

  • After an explosive rally in April, the Hang Seng Index has been in a downtrend since mid-May, many are wondering where the index is headed next.
  • July 2024, based on our seasonal pattern analysis, does not have a great chance to close higher (it could, but the odds are not good).
  • If the index goes down in the next 2 weeks, buy the 17600-17300 price area.

Morguard Real Estate Invt Tr (MRT.UN) – Friday, Apr 5, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Morguard REIT (MRT) is considered undervalued due to its exposure to commercial real estate, particularly in the office sector
  • MRT, a part of the Morguard group, is expected to unlock its value through a catalyst similar to Temple Hotels (TPH)
  • Despite being part of Morguard Corp (MRC), MRT has traditionally traded at a discount to its own NAV, with an estimated value of $7.5+ per unit and potential development asset upside, offering a projected downside of $4.5 per unit.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Consumer: Aisin , SHEIN, Tesla , Onward Holdings, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Signet Jewelers, Meritage Homes, J & J Snack Foods, Under Armour, Betterware de Mexico Sab de CV and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Aisin (7259 JP): The Current Playbook
  • SHEIN: Teaming up with Reliance Retail to Re-Enter India. A Win-Win Move
  • Outpacing Delivery Expectations Sends Shares Soaring. Is Tesla the Most Undervalued AI Name?
  • Onward Holdings (8016 JP): Q1 FY02/25 flash update
  • Whether Measures to Meet TSE’s Request Increased Certainty Will Be Tested at 2Q Financial Reporting
  • Signet Jewelers: A Flexible Operating Model and Strong Free Cash Flow Conversion! – Major Drivers
  • Meritage Homes Corporation: A Tale Of Community Expansion and Market Share Growth! – Major Drivers
  • J & J Snack Foods Corp.: Enhanced Distribution Strategy with New Infrastructure Developments As A Critical Growth Catalyst! – Major Drivers
  • Under Armour Inc.: Will Its D2C Focused International Business Strategy Pay Off? – Major Drivers
  • BWMX: Snapping the Catalog: July Remains Hot; Reiterate Buy, $22.50 PT


Aisin (7259 JP): The Current Playbook

By Arun George

  • Since the US$1.1 billion secondary placement announcement, Aisin (7259 JP)’s shares are up 2.5% from the undisturbed price of JPY5,243 per share (27 June).
  • Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Aisin’s shares have deviated from the pattern of previous large placements.
  • The offering will likely be priced on 8 July. Investors who have participated in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.

SHEIN: Teaming up with Reliance Retail to Re-Enter India. A Win-Win Move

By Devi Subhakesan

  • SHEIN’s fast-fashion apparel is set to hit India through Reliance Retail’s platforms, marking a major comeback after the 2020 ban.
  • This partnership could be a win-win, tapping into India’s booming fashion demand and offering Shein access to the world’s largest youth market, ahead of its proposed IPO.
  • With Shein’s affordable styles and Reliance’s extensive network, this alliance targets the youth market, challenging brands like Tata Group’s Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) owned Zudio.

Outpacing Delivery Expectations Sends Shares Soaring. Is Tesla the Most Undervalued AI Name?

By Uttkarsh Kohli

  • Tesla delivered 443,956 vehicles in Q2 with production of 410,831 vehicles. It deployed a quarterly record of 9.4 GW hours of battery storage, its best quarter ever.
  • Tesla delivered 443,956 vehicles in Q2 with production of 410,831 vehicles. It deployed a quarterly record of 9.4 GW hours of battery storage, its best quarter ever.
  • Future remains uncertain for Tesla and its investors. Tesla shares are pricing in the launch of a lower priced model and Tesla’s Robotaxi on 8/8.

Onward Holdings (8016 JP): Q1 FY02/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Sales rose JPY1.5bn YoY (+2.9% YoY) to JPY51.4bn, driven by higher sales in domestic and overseas apparel businesses.
  • Operating profit decreased JPY306mn YoY (-5.7% YoY) to JPY5.1bn due to a decline in domestic profit and wider overseas losses.
  • Full-year forecasts revised for recurring profit and net income attributable to owners of the parent, reflecting better-than-expected affiliate performance.

Whether Measures to Meet TSE’s Request Increased Certainty Will Be Tested at 2Q Financial Reporting

By Aki Matsumoto

  • If a company hasn’t improved its return such as ROE, it’s difficult to buy its shares until the plan is more certain that cash flow will expand in the future.
  • Since cash flow margin must be raised to increase cash flow, the ultimate goal is to achieve sales growth while raising the profit margin on sales.
  • Cutting costs alone isn’t enough; cash must be used for investments that will lead to future growth, so cash must be used for growth investments as well as stock repurchases.

Signet Jewelers: A Flexible Operating Model and Strong Free Cash Flow Conversion! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Signet Jewelers delivered a performance that aligns with its guidance amidst a challenging retail environmen characterized by macroeconomic pressures and heightened discount activities in the jewelry sector.
  • The company reported $1.5 billion in sales and $58 million in adjusted operating income, which falls within the upper half of its guidance range.
  • The quarter saw a sluggish start but improved significantly with late Valentine’s Day shopping and further momentum through March and April.

Meritage Homes Corporation: A Tale Of Community Expansion and Market Share Growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Meritage Homes commenced the year with a remarkable first quarter in 2024, demonstrating both strong execution and a robust demand environment, yet facing challenges due to the unpredictability of interest rates and increased land and material costs.
  • On the performance front, Meritage Homes reported substantial gains, with first-quarter sales orders hitting a record 3,991 homes, reflecting a 14% year-over-year increase.
  • This noteworthy jump was primarily driven by healthy spring sales, an 8% cancellation rate, and robust demand across all regions, particularly from entry-level homebuyers who make up more than 90% of the order volume.

J & J Snack Foods Corp.: Enhanced Distribution Strategy with New Infrastructure Developments As A Critical Growth Catalyst! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • J&J Snack Foods recently reported fiscal results for the second quarter of 2024 and showcased a promising outcome, marked by significant sales and profit growth.
  • The company’s strategy and operational efficiencies appear to be paying off, with net sales reaching $357 million, an increase of 6.5% compared to the prior year.
  • This results from a combination of higher volumes, new business performance, and continued robust sales in major segments like Foodservice and Retail.

Under Armour Inc.: Will Its D2C Focused International Business Strategy Pay Off? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Under Armour, the prominent athletic performance brand, reported their Q4 2024 earnings.
  • While the brand maintains a strong foundation and reputation amongst consumers, recent changes in leadership and the COVID 19 pandemic have presented challenges to the company’s operations, including increased competition and changes in consumer shopping behavior.
  • The company expressed a commitment to improvement by prioritizing clarity and stability amid rapid executive team changes and industry shifts.

BWMX: Snapping the Catalog: July Remains Hot; Reiterate Buy, $22.50 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating and $22.50 price target and slightly back-end loading our 2024 projections after reviewing the July catalog and recent foreign exchange swings between the Mexican Peso and USD.
  • July continued to demonstrate normalizing trends in the Betterware catalog, with SKU levels up YoY and discounting remaining down, as the division begins to compare against more normalized results from the prior year, as supply chains reset at more historic levels.
  • That said, overall pricing power remains somewhat constrained, as YoY pricing dropped 8.4%, the sixth drop, and deepest decline, this year.

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Daily Brief Australia: Iron Ore and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Iron Ore Prices on Fire on Hopes of China’s Third Plenum


Iron Ore Prices on Fire on Hopes of China’s Third Plenum

By Pranay Yadav

  • Anticipation of an extensive stimulus package at China’s Third Plenum, aimed at revitalizing the decelerating economy, is driving a rebound in iron ore prices.
  • China’s iron ore imports have increased by 7% year-over-year despite a 3% decline in steel output, leading to a buildup in inventories on-shore. 
  • The convergence of technical signals and seasonal trends in the SGX TSI Iron Ore Index suggests a bullish market stance, highlighting potential profit opportunities.

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Daily Brief South Korea: Hanwha Corporation, Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Hanwha Corp Tender Offer Details & Arbitrage Trading Assessment
  • Impact of Kim Byung-Hwan’s Appointment as Korea FSC Chairman on Value-Up Policy
  • Hanwha Energy Launches Tender Offer of 180 Billion Won Worth of Hanwha Corp


Hanwha Corp Tender Offer Details & Arbitrage Trading Assessment

By Sanghyun Park

  • Hanwha Energy, wholly owned by the Hanwha Group’s owning family, announced a tender offer for an 8% stake in Hanwha Corp at ₩30,000. The tender period is until July 24.
  • Hanwha Energy will buy all shares if tendered less than planned, otherwise pro-rata. Payment in cash eliminates cancellation risk but poses allocation risk.
  • Approximately 10-15% of shares are likely to be the potential ceiling for tendering, minimizing allocation risk for the 8% target. A widening spread of 2-3% could offer arbitrage opportunities.

Impact of Kim Byung-Hwan’s Appointment as Korea FSC Chairman on Value-Up Policy

By Sanghyun Park

  • Kim Byung-hwan addressed criticism of weak incentives in tax support for the value-up policy, emphasizing boosting dividends. His background suggests effective advocacy for tax reforms in his new role.
  • He prioritized abolishing the FIIT in the National Assembly, citing its hindrance to capital market liquidity and investment promotion, indicating a robust approach to the value-up policy.
  • Kim’s appointment as FSC Chairman signals the government’s commitment to advancing the value-up policy. He emphasizes boosting dividends and aligning tax policies accordingly, shaping trading strategies toward dividend-expanding companies.

Hanwha Energy Launches Tender Offer of 180 Billion Won Worth of Hanwha Corp

By Douglas Kim

  • On 5 July, Hanwha Energy announced a tender offer of 8% stake in Hanwha Corporation (000880 KS) worth 180 billion won.
  • The tender offer price is 30,000 won. Hanwha Energy will launch a tender offer for up to 6 million shares of Hanwha Corp, representing 8% of outstanding shares. 
  • Hanwha Corp’s 34% stake in Hanwha Aerospace which is worth 4.2 trillion won. (191% of Hanwha Corp’s market cap). 

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Daily Brief United States: Tesla , Uranium, Meritage Homes, J & J Snack Foods, Credo Technology Group Holding, Scotts Miracle-Gro Co Cl A, Signet Jewelers, Old Dominion Freight Line, Sherwin Williams Co, iHeartMedia and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Outpacing Delivery Expectations Sends Shares Soaring. Is Tesla the Most Undervalued AI Name?
  • Paladin-Fission Merger Primed to Benefit from Rising Uranium Demand
  • Meritage Homes Corporation: A Tale Of Community Expansion and Market Share Growth! – Major Drivers
  • J & J Snack Foods Corp.: Enhanced Distribution Strategy with New Infrastructure Developments As A Critical Growth Catalyst! – Major Drivers
  • Credo Technology Group: We Are Unsure Despite Their Expansion in Artificial Intelligence Applications! – Major Drivers
  • Scotts Miracle-Gro Co (SMG) – Friday, Apr 5, 2024
  • Signet Jewelers: A Flexible Operating Model and Strong Free Cash Flow Conversion! – Major Drivers
  • Old Dominion Freight Line Inc.: How They Are Growing Volumes Through Operating Ratio Leverage! – Major Drivers
  • The Sherwin-Williams Company: What Is Their Market Share Strategy in Emerging Opportunities? – Major Drivers
  • Iheartmedia Inc (IHRT) – Friday, Apr 5, 2024


Outpacing Delivery Expectations Sends Shares Soaring. Is Tesla the Most Undervalued AI Name?

By Uttkarsh Kohli

  • Tesla delivered 443,956 vehicles in Q2 with production of 410,831 vehicles. It deployed a quarterly record of 9.4 GW hours of battery storage, its best quarter ever.
  • Tesla delivered 443,956 vehicles in Q2 with production of 410,831 vehicles. It deployed a quarterly record of 9.4 GW hours of battery storage, its best quarter ever.
  • Future remains uncertain for Tesla and its investors. Tesla shares are pricing in the launch of a lower priced model and Tesla’s Robotaxi on 8/8.

Paladin-Fission Merger Primed to Benefit from Rising Uranium Demand

By Suhas Reddy

  • Combined entity of Paladin Energy and Fission Uranium expected to command a market capitalisation of USD 3.5 billion.  
  • Following the Russia-Ukraine war, uranium miners started looking for alternative sources in low-risk regions, putting focus on US and Canada.
  • Post-Merger, Paladin will have the second-largest resource base of any listed uranium miner in the Western Hemisphere, second only to Cameco.  

Meritage Homes Corporation: A Tale Of Community Expansion and Market Share Growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Meritage Homes commenced the year with a remarkable first quarter in 2024, demonstrating both strong execution and a robust demand environment, yet facing challenges due to the unpredictability of interest rates and increased land and material costs.
  • On the performance front, Meritage Homes reported substantial gains, with first-quarter sales orders hitting a record 3,991 homes, reflecting a 14% year-over-year increase.
  • This noteworthy jump was primarily driven by healthy spring sales, an 8% cancellation rate, and robust demand across all regions, particularly from entry-level homebuyers who make up more than 90% of the order volume.

J & J Snack Foods Corp.: Enhanced Distribution Strategy with New Infrastructure Developments As A Critical Growth Catalyst! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • J&J Snack Foods recently reported fiscal results for the second quarter of 2024 and showcased a promising outcome, marked by significant sales and profit growth.
  • The company’s strategy and operational efficiencies appear to be paying off, with net sales reaching $357 million, an increase of 6.5% compared to the prior year.
  • This results from a combination of higher volumes, new business performance, and continued robust sales in major segments like Foodservice and Retail.

Credo Technology Group: We Are Unsure Despite Their Expansion in Artificial Intelligence Applications! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Credo’s fiscal 2024 earnings presented a blend of robust achievements and markers for future growth, tied along with inherent business risks associated with developing and scaling high-speed connectivity solutions.
  • The company highlighted record annual revenue alongside a notable uplift in revenue derived from AI-powered workloads, indicating successful alignment with leading-edge technological demands.
  • Revenue for fiscal year 2024 stood at $193 million, up by 5% year-over-year, with a marked improvement in non GAAP gross margins to 62.5%.

Scotts Miracle-Gro Co (SMG) – Friday, Apr 5, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Recommendation to short shares of Scotts Miracle-Gro based on excessive leverage from Hawthorne hydroponics subsidiary’s cannabis market bet
  • Core consumer lawn care business facing increased competition, pricing pressure, and challenges in driving volume growth
  • Projected 40% downside for SMG due to precarious financial position and reliance on key retailers and seasonal revenue

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Signet Jewelers: A Flexible Operating Model and Strong Free Cash Flow Conversion! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Signet Jewelers delivered a performance that aligns with its guidance amidst a challenging retail environmen characterized by macroeconomic pressures and heightened discount activities in the jewelry sector.
  • The company reported $1.5 billion in sales and $58 million in adjusted operating income, which falls within the upper half of its guidance range.
  • The quarter saw a sluggish start but improved significantly with late Valentine’s Day shopping and further momentum through March and April.

Old Dominion Freight Line Inc.: How They Are Growing Volumes Through Operating Ratio Leverage! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Old Dominion Freight Line, a major freight carrier company, recently released its first quarter 2024 which reflected a challenging economic environment but also highlighted areas of growth.
  • Despite the continued softness in the domestic economy, Old Dominion was able to report modest year over-year increases in revenue and earnings per diluted share for two consecutive quarters.
  • Its Q1 2024 earnings per diluted share of $1.34 signifies a new company record for this period.

The Sherwin-Williams Company: What Is Their Market Share Strategy in Emerging Opportunities? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The Sherwin-Williams Company recently reported its consolidated sales within the guided range, gross margin expansion, and growth in diluted earnings per share (EPS) and Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA).
  • However, the results were at the lower end of expected sales.
  • Despite the modest first quarter, the company remains confident in its full-year outlook and is optimistic about the upcoming painting season.

Iheartmedia Inc (IHRT) – Friday, Apr 5, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • IHRT is expected to experience positive growth in the upcoming quarters, driven by its podcasting business
  • CEO and CFO have been buying stocks, indicating confidence in the company’s future prospects
  • Potential debt restructuring and positive growth could lead to a significant increase in IHRT’s equity value by the end of 2025.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief China: SHEIN, J&T Global Express , Hang Seng Index and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • SHEIN: Teaming up with Reliance Retail to Re-Enter India. A Win-Win Move
  • HK CEO & Director Dealings (5th Jul 2024): J&T Global Express, Flat Glass, Lifetech Scientific, PCCW
  • EQD | Will the HSI Keep Falling In July?


SHEIN: Teaming up with Reliance Retail to Re-Enter India. A Win-Win Move

By Devi Subhakesan

  • SHEIN’s fast-fashion apparel is set to hit India through Reliance Retail’s platforms, marking a major comeback after the 2020 ban.
  • This partnership could be a win-win, tapping into India’s booming fashion demand and offering Shein access to the world’s largest youth market, ahead of its proposed IPO.
  • With Shein’s affordable styles and Reliance’s extensive network, this alliance targets the youth market, challenging brands like Tata Group’s Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) owned Zudio.

HK CEO & Director Dealings (5th Jul 2024): J&T Global Express, Flat Glass, Lifetech Scientific, PCCW

By David Blennerhassett


EQD | Will the HSI Keep Falling In July?

By Nico Rosti

  • After an explosive rally in April, the Hang Seng Index has been in a downtrend since mid-May, many are wondering where the index is headed next.
  • July 2024, based on our seasonal pattern analysis, does not have a great chance to close higher (it could, but the odds are not good).
  • If the index goes down in the next 2 weeks, buy the 17600-17300 price area.

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Daily Brief Japan: Aisin , Mitsui Matsushima, Onward Holdings, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Bike O & Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Aisin (7259 JP): The Current Playbook
  • JAPAN ACTIVISM: Murakami Target Mitsui Matsushima Cleans Up
  • Onward Holdings (8016 JP): Q1 FY02/25 flash update
  • Whether Measures to Meet TSE’s Request Increased Certainty Will Be Tested at 2Q Financial Reporting
  • Bike O & Co Ltd (3377 JP): 1H FY11/23 flash update


Aisin (7259 JP): The Current Playbook

By Arun George

  • Since the US$1.1 billion secondary placement announcement, Aisin (7259 JP)’s shares are up 2.5% from the undisturbed price of JPY5,243 per share (27 June).
  • Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Aisin’s shares have deviated from the pattern of previous large placements.
  • The offering will likely be priced on 8 July. Investors who have participated in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.

JAPAN ACTIVISM: Murakami Target Mitsui Matsushima Cleans Up

By Travis Lundy

  • On 20 May, I wrote that Japanese activist MURAKAMI Yoshiaki and relations/affiliates had gone from 5% to 20% of Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) in 5 trading days.
  • I wondered if it was real, or a pump & dump, but they went to near 30% in following days. THEN they drifted off as Murakami-Fille sold while Murakami-Père bought. 
  • The reasoning was not clear, but the story had real potential. Still does. Today, shareholders got more good news. 

Onward Holdings (8016 JP): Q1 FY02/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Sales rose JPY1.5bn YoY (+2.9% YoY) to JPY51.4bn, driven by higher sales in domestic and overseas apparel businesses.
  • Operating profit decreased JPY306mn YoY (-5.7% YoY) to JPY5.1bn due to a decline in domestic profit and wider overseas losses.
  • Full-year forecasts revised for recurring profit and net income attributable to owners of the parent, reflecting better-than-expected affiliate performance.

Whether Measures to Meet TSE’s Request Increased Certainty Will Be Tested at 2Q Financial Reporting

By Aki Matsumoto

  • If a company hasn’t improved its return such as ROE, it’s difficult to buy its shares until the plan is more certain that cash flow will expand in the future.
  • Since cash flow margin must be raised to increase cash flow, the ultimate goal is to achieve sales growth while raising the profit margin on sales.
  • Cutting costs alone isn’t enough; cash must be used for investments that will lead to future growth, so cash must be used for growth investments as well as stock repurchases.

Bike O & Co Ltd (3377 JP): 1H FY11/23 flash update

By Shared Research

  • In 1H FY11/24, revenue was JPY16.5bn (-5.5% YoY), with an operating loss of JPY244mn and net loss of JPY146mn.
  • Wholesale revenue was JPY8.7bn (-17.1% YoY), retail revenue JPY6.5bn (-0.7% YoY), and other revenue JPY1.3bn (+191.1% YoY).
  • SG&A expenses totaled JPY6.3bn (+4.3% YoY), with selling expenses at JPY2.4bn (-2.9% YoY) and personnel expenses JPY2.2bn (+4.9% YoY).

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Most Read: Honda Motor, Robosense Technology, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Hanwha Corporation, Aisin , Mitsui Matsushima, Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index, SHEIN, J&T Global Express and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Big ¥500bn Honda (7267) Offering Is Small
  • Robosense IPO Lock-Up Expiry – US$2.8bn Lockup Expiry for 99% of the Stock, CCASS Movement
  • A Practical Guide to Create A Workable Electronic File for KOSPI 200 Rebalancing Simulation
  • Hanwha Corp Tender Offer Details & Arbitrage Trading Assessment
  • Aisin (7259 JP): The Current Playbook
  • Aisin Corp Placement – Follow Up – Could Fall into a Similar Fate as past Large JP Secondary Deals
  • JAPAN ACTIVISM: Murakami Target Mitsui Matsushima Cleans Up
  • Impact of Kim Byung-Hwan’s Appointment as Korea FSC Chairman on Value-Up Policy
  • SHEIN: Teaming up with Reliance Retail to Re-Enter India. A Win-Win Move
  • HK CEO & Director Dealings (5th Jul 2024): J&T Global Express, Flat Glass, Lifetech Scientific, PCCW


Big ¥500bn Honda (7267) Offering Is Small

By Travis Lundy

  • Just pre-close on 2 July, Reuters carried an article suggesting a ¥500bn secondary offering in Honda Motor (7267 JP) as insurers sold. The stock fell 4% in minutes. 
  • Honda semi-confirmed but it took two days to get to the details, now out. The stock climbed in the meantime. 
  • At launch, this deal is two-thirds covered by buyback + passive demand but the supply is heavily-weighted to retail. Cheaper than it looks, lots of moving parts. Read the details!

Robosense IPO Lock-Up Expiry – US$2.8bn Lockup Expiry for 99% of the Stock, CCASS Movement

By Sumeet Singh

  • Robosense Technology (2498 HK) raised around US$126m in its Hong Kong IPO in Jan 2024. The lockup on its shareholders will expire soon.
  • The company provides LiDAR and perception solutions to its customers. As of March 2024, it had design wins for mass production of LiDAR products with 22 automotive OEMs and suppliers.
  • In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.

A Practical Guide to Create A Workable Electronic File for KOSPI 200 Rebalancing Simulation

By Sanghyun Park

  • Predicting KOSPI 200 rebalancing is straightforward, focusing on quantitative screening rather than qualitative factors, unlike other indices.
  • Accurate simulation of KOSPI 200 requires daily data on shares, volume, and prices for six months, typically sourced from KOSCOM due to limitations in free data access.
  • I plan to share a practical KOSPI 200 simulation file with Smartkarma readers, leveraging freely available data from Google Finance.

Hanwha Corp Tender Offer Details & Arbitrage Trading Assessment

By Sanghyun Park

  • Hanwha Energy, wholly owned by the Hanwha Group’s owning family, announced a tender offer for an 8% stake in Hanwha Corp at ₩30,000. The tender period is until July 24.
  • Hanwha Energy will buy all shares if tendered less than planned, otherwise pro-rata. Payment in cash eliminates cancellation risk but poses allocation risk.
  • Approximately 10-15% of shares are likely to be the potential ceiling for tendering, minimizing allocation risk for the 8% target. A widening spread of 2-3% could offer arbitrage opportunities.

Aisin (7259 JP): The Current Playbook

By Arun George

  • Since the US$1.1 billion secondary placement announcement, Aisin (7259 JP)’s shares are up 2.5% from the undisturbed price of JPY5,243 per share (27 June).
  • Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Aisin’s shares have deviated from the pattern of previous large placements.
  • The offering will likely be priced on 8 July. Investors who have participated in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.

Aisin Corp Placement – Follow Up – Could Fall into a Similar Fate as past Large JP Secondary Deals

By Clarence Chu


JAPAN ACTIVISM: Murakami Target Mitsui Matsushima Cleans Up

By Travis Lundy

  • On 20 May, I wrote that Japanese activist MURAKAMI Yoshiaki and relations/affiliates had gone from 5% to 20% of Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) in 5 trading days.
  • I wondered if it was real, or a pump & dump, but they went to near 30% in following days. THEN they drifted off as Murakami-Fille sold while Murakami-Père bought. 
  • The reasoning was not clear, but the story had real potential. Still does. Today, shareholders got more good news. 

Impact of Kim Byung-Hwan’s Appointment as Korea FSC Chairman on Value-Up Policy

By Sanghyun Park

  • Kim Byung-hwan addressed criticism of weak incentives in tax support for the value-up policy, emphasizing boosting dividends. His background suggests effective advocacy for tax reforms in his new role.
  • He prioritized abolishing the FIIT in the National Assembly, citing its hindrance to capital market liquidity and investment promotion, indicating a robust approach to the value-up policy.
  • Kim’s appointment as FSC Chairman signals the government’s commitment to advancing the value-up policy. He emphasizes boosting dividends and aligning tax policies accordingly, shaping trading strategies toward dividend-expanding companies.

SHEIN: Teaming up with Reliance Retail to Re-Enter India. A Win-Win Move

By Devi Subhakesan

  • SHEIN’s fast-fashion apparel is set to hit India through Reliance Retail’s platforms, marking a major comeback after the 2020 ban.
  • This partnership could be a win-win, tapping into India’s booming fashion demand and offering Shein access to the world’s largest youth market, ahead of its proposed IPO.
  • With Shein’s affordable styles and Reliance’s extensive network, this alliance targets the youth market, challenging brands like Tata Group’s Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) owned Zudio.

HK CEO & Director Dealings (5th Jul 2024): J&T Global Express, Flat Glass, Lifetech Scientific, PCCW

By David Blennerhassett


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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jul 5th): Tencent and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jul 5th): Tencent, Meituan, Aia


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jul 5th): Tencent, Meituan, Aia

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Jul 5th based on HKEx daily reports.
  • In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), AIA (1299 HK).
  • In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), AIA (1299 HK).

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Daily Brief ESG: Whether Measures to Meet TSE’s Request Increased Certainty Will Be Tested at 2Q Financial Reporting and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Whether Measures to Meet TSE’s Request Increased Certainty Will Be Tested at 2Q Financial Reporting


Whether Measures to Meet TSE’s Request Increased Certainty Will Be Tested at 2Q Financial Reporting

By Aki Matsumoto

  • If a company hasn’t improved its return such as ROE, it’s difficult to buy its shares until the plan is more certain that cash flow will expand in the future.
  • Since cash flow margin must be raised to increase cash flow, the ultimate goal is to achieve sales growth while raising the profit margin on sales.
  • Cutting costs alone isn’t enough; cash must be used for investments that will lead to future growth, so cash must be used for growth investments as well as stock repurchases.

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