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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Event-Driven: (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Sermsuk and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Sermsuk, L’Occitane, Shinko Electric, MMA Offshore, Hollysys
  • Weekly Deals Digest (07 Jul) – ESR, L’Occitane, Hollysys, Aisin, Honda, Sanil, Shift Up, Timee
  • Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep 24: Reference Period Over; One Change Likely; US$733mn One-Way
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Barito Renewables, Honda, Raffles Medical, Daidoh, Hanwha Corp
  • Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep 24: Final Ranks and Updated Flow Expectations


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Sermsuk, L’Occitane, Shinko Electric, MMA Offshore, Hollysys

By David Blennerhassett


Weekly Deals Digest (07 Jul) – ESR, L’Occitane, Hollysys, Aisin, Honda, Sanil, Shift Up, Timee

By Arun George


Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep 24: Reference Period Over; One Change Likely; US$733mn One-Way

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
  • The reference period for the September 2024 index rebal event is now complete. In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations for index changes.
  • Our current estimates suggest one-way flows due to index changes and capping could be around US$733mn but that could change by early September 2024.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Barito Renewables, Honda, Raffles Medical, Daidoh, Hanwha Corp

By David Blennerhassett

  • It’s just a question of when, not if, the bubble bursts for Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ), which is up 1,200% since it October 2023 IPO. 
  • A Reuters article suggests a ¥500bn secondary offering for Honda Motor (7267 JP). Honda has since said there is smoke. And we can assume there is fire.
  • Loo Choon Yong, Raffles Medical Group (RFMD SP)‘s founder and major shareholder, continues to chip away at minorities, and now holds 54.944%,

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep 24: Final Ranks and Updated Flow Expectations

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
  • In mid-June 2024, we had two expected ADDs and DELs for the September 2024 index rebal event and they remain unchanged even after the end of the reference period.
  • However, our capping flow expectations continue to change as the pro-forma post-rebalance weights change with share prices. In this insight, we have provided our latest flow estimates.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | Stocks Surge; Retail Rises; Heavies Hover and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Weekly | Stocks Surge; Retail Rises; Heavies Hover


Japan Weekly | Stocks Surge; Retail Rises; Heavies Hover

By Mark Chadwick

  • US Markets: Economic indicators showed signs of slowing, with the ISM Services index contracting and lower-than-expected job growth, hinting at cooling inflation and potential Fed rate cuts.
  • Japan’s Market: TOPIX and Nikkei surged, buoyed by expectations of positive retail earnings and strong performance in the broader market.
  • Key Stock Moves: Mercari and MHI saw significant gains due to strategic shifts and favorable sector outlooks, while Ain Holdings fell on acquisition concerns.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Asian Dividend Gems: Chow Tai Fook Jewellery and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Asian Dividend Gems: Chow Tai Fook Jewellery
  • Berli Jucker (BJC TB) – Big C’s Tourism Factor
  • China Healthcare Weekly (July.7) – MNCs’ Next Move In Licensing Deals, Topchoice, Junshi’s Trouble
  • Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV AU): Positive Clinical Trial Result; Base Business Going Strong


Asian Dividend Gems: Chow Tai Fook Jewellery

By Douglas Kim

  • Chow Tai Fook Jewellery’s shares are down 28.2% YTD, sharply underperforming the Hang Seng Index which is up 6% in the same period. We believe this divergence is excessive. 
  • Chow Tai Fook’s dividend yield averaged 4.8% from FY20 to FY24. Its annual dividend payout averaged 107% in the same period.
  • Chai Tai Fook is currently trading at attractive valuations. It is trading at P/E of 10.1x, EV/EBITDA of 7.5x, and P/B of 2.9x based on FY25 consensus earnings estimates. 

Berli Jucker (BJC TB) – Big C’s Tourism Factor

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Berli Jucker’s modern trade supply chain under Big C continues to benefit from the tourism recovery, with 25 dedicated tourism stores and another 35 secondary tourism stores. 
  • Tourism stores carry a slightly different mix of SKUs versus regular stores, which generate higher margins. Big C continues to expand its store network and margins are moving upwards.
  • Berli Jucker provides direct exposure to Big C but its other divisions including packaging and consumer supply chain provide exposure to both Thailand and Vietnam. Valuations are attractive versus history.

China Healthcare Weekly (July.7) – MNCs’ Next Move In Licensing Deals, Topchoice, Junshi’s Trouble

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • For all licensing cooperation with MNCs, we recommend that investors wait to see what MNCs’ next move is before deciding whether the cooperation is really promising.
  • Topchoice showed good business growth in 24Q2. Our biggest concern for Topchoice is that the unit price per customer may further decrease in the future, thereby affecting revenue/profit growth.
  • Junshi’s sales growth picked up in 24Q1, but concerns on Junshi persist. We don’t think Junshi is undervalued and its valuation should be lower than that of peers.

Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV AU): Positive Clinical Trial Result; Base Business Going Strong

By Tina Banerjee

  • Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV AU) released positive update from its CUV151 study, which was evaluating the DNA-repair capacity of afamelanotide on skin of healthy volunteers exposed to UV radiation.
  • Riding on high trajectory of lead therapy, Scenesse, thanks to the prescriber network growth, treatment demand, and number of prescriptions, Clinuvel has been consistently reporting profitable revenue growth.
  • Greater patient outreach to be facilitated by more specialty centers able to administer Scenesse in the U.S., expanding geographic footprint, and future label expansions are future growth engines.

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Daily Brief Macro: Hong Kong Services PMI: True Recovery or One-Off Improvement? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong Services PMI: True Recovery or One-Off Improvement?


Hong Kong Services PMI: True Recovery or One-Off Improvement?

By Alex Ng

  • In June 2024, the Hong Kong Service PMI improved to 49.6, up from 43.9 in May. This indicates that while the sector is contracting, the contraction rate has slowed significantly.
  • Unemployment levels remained stable. Additionally, there was an increase in input cost inflation, and business confidence reached a five-month high​​.
  • Though the services PMI improves, long-run factors such as northward spending of residents, outflow of human labours, and corrections in housing sector will continue to weigh on the economy

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Top 10 Highlights from the APAC PE, VC and Startup Ecosystem this Week – 07 Jul 2024

By | Private Markets, Smartkarma Newswire

Top ten highlights from the APAC PE, VC, and startup ecosystem this week:

  1. ByteDance and Tokopedia Merger Aftermath: Six months since the merger, ByteDance’s e-commerce ecosystem has seen significant changes, including a round of layoffs and strategic shifts.
  2. Indonesia’s Tech IPO Market: After a lull post-2021-22 tech IPO boom, Indonesia’s tech startups are now eyeing public listings in H2 2024 and 2025 as valuations moderate.
  3. SE Asia’s Public Markets Resilience: Amid widespread optimism about a potential US Fed interest rate cut, SE Asia’s public markets are seeing a revival in IPO plans.
  4. Investment Roundup: Significant investments include Aruna’s fresh investment, Viz Branz sale process, Capsquare Asia Partners’ continuation fund, Xurya’s funding round, and Superbank’s additional investment.
  5. Global Investment Updates: KKR’s stake acquisition in Baby Memorial Hospital, OYO’s funding round, Matter Motor’s Series B round, and KargoBot’s Series A financing.
  6. LP-GP Updates: Norfund’s focus on Southeast Asia, Orios Venture Partners’ fund close postponement, Clime Capital’s clean energy fund closing, and Suzuki Motor Corporation’s social impact fund launch.
  7. EQT Private Capital Asia’s Mid-Market Fund: The New York Fire Department Pension Fund’s investment in EQT’s mid-market fund focused on Asia.
  8. GEF Capital Partners Climate-focused Private Equity Fund: GEF Capital Partners’ successful raise of $380.2 million for its latest climate-focused private equity vehicle.
  9. Siguler Guff’s Emerging Markets Growth Opportunities Fund: Siguler Guff’s upcoming Global Emerging Markets Growth Opportunities Fund II raises over $110 million for its $300 million fund.
  10. Industry Analyses: LPs direct investments in Indian companies, Indonesian wealth tech sector challenges, the thawing of India’s funding winter, and Southeast Asia’s commitment to energy transition.

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