Daily Briefs

I tally 49 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Just one new deal was discussed this week on Smartkarma: Sermsuk PCL (SSC TB)‘s Delisting Offer. There are also rumours of an Offer for Raffles Medical Group (RFMD SP).
Key updates took place on: L’Occitane (973 HK), Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP), MMA Offshore (MRM AU), and Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US).

Asian Dividend Gems: Chow Tai Fook Jewellery

By Douglas Kim

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery’s shares are down 28.2% YTD, sharply underperforming the Hang Seng Index which is up 6% in the same period. We believe this divergence is excessive.
Chow Tai Fook’s dividend yield averaged 4.8% from FY20 to FY24. Its annual dividend payout averaged 107% in the same period.
Chai Tai Fook is currently trading at attractive valuations. It is trading at P/E of 10.1x, EV/EBITDA of 7.5x, and P/B of 2.9x based on FY25 consensus earnings estimates.

Berli Jucker (BJC TB) – Big C’s Tourism Factor

By Angus Mackintosh

Berli Jucker’s modern trade supply chain under Big C continues to benefit from the tourism recovery, with 25 dedicated tourism stores and another 35 secondary tourism stores.
Tourism stores carry a slightly different mix of SKUs versus regular stores, which generate higher margins. Big C continues to expand its store network and margins are moving upwards.
Berli Jucker provides direct exposure to Big C but its other divisions including packaging and consumer supply chain provide exposure to both Thailand and Vietnam. Valuations are attractive versus history.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Barito Renewables, Honda, Raffles Medical, Daidoh, Hanwha Corp

It’s just a question of when, not if, the bubble bursts for Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ), which is up 1,200% since it October 2023 IPO.
A Reuters article suggests a ¥500bn secondary offering for Honda Motor (7267 JP). Honda has since said there is smoke. And we can assume there is fire.
Loo Choon Yong, Raffles Medical Group (RFMD SP)‘s founder and major shareholder, continues to chip away at minorities, and now holds 54.944%,

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Jul 07

Daily Brief Australia: Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV AU): Positive Clinical Trial Result; Base Business Going Strong

Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV AU): Positive Clinical Trial Result; Base Business Going Strong

By Tina Banerjee

Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV AU) released positive update from its CUV151 study, which was evaluating the DNA-repair capacity of afamelanotide on skin of healthy volunteers exposed to UV radiation.
Riding on high trajectory of lead therapy, Scenesse, thanks to the prescriber network growth, treatment demand, and number of prescriptions, Clinuvel has been consistently reporting profitable revenue growth.
Greater patient outreach to be facilitated by more specialty centers able to administer Scenesse in the U.S., expanding geographic footprint, and future label expansions are future growth engines.

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Jul 07

Daily Brief Thailand: Berli Jucker and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

Berli Jucker (BJC TB) – Big C’s Tourism Factor

Berli Jucker (BJC TB) – Big C’s Tourism Factor

By Angus Mackintosh

Berli Jucker’s modern trade supply chain under Big C continues to benefit from the tourism recovery, with 25 dedicated tourism stores and another 35 secondary tourism stores.
Tourism stores carry a slightly different mix of SKUs versus regular stores, which generate higher margins. Big C continues to expand its store network and margins are moving upwards.
Berli Jucker provides direct exposure to Big C but its other divisions including packaging and consumer supply chain provide exposure to both Thailand and Vietnam. Valuations are attractive versus history.

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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

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✓ Company Data and News
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Jul 07

Daily Brief South Korea: Shift Up and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

Shift Up IPO: Final Allocation Results, Lockup Release Schedule, & Index Float Rates

Shift Up IPO: Final Allocation Results, Lockup Release Schedule, & Index Float Rates

Notably, local hedge funds receive significant allocation, nearly 10%, unusual for KOSPI IPOs this size, differing from HD Hyundai Marine Solution.
KOSPI 200’s initial float rate is 14%, rising to 58% in six months. MSCI starts at 8%, reaching 12% in six months and 25% in a year.
Differences from HD Hyundai Marine Solution include high short-term strategies among institutions. Unlike before, local pension funds receive substantial allocation, potentially affecting stock price post-listing.

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✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jul 07

Daily Brief China: L’Occitane, ESR Group , ASM Pacific Technology, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences , JD Logistics and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Sermsuk, L’Occitane, Shinko Electric, MMA Offshore, Hollysys
Weekly Deals Digest (07 Jul) – ESR, L’Occitane, Hollysys, Aisin, Honda, Sanil, Shift Up, Timee
Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep 24: Reference Period Over; One Change Likely; US$733mn One-Way
Asian Dividend Gems: Chow Tai Fook Jewellery
China Healthcare Weekly (July.7) – MNCs’ Next Move In Licensing Deals, Topchoice, Junshi’s Trouble
Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep 24: Final Ranks and Updated Flow Expectations

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Sermsuk, L’Occitane, Shinko Electric, MMA Offshore, Hollysys

I tally 49 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Just one new deal was discussed this week on Smartkarma: Sermsuk PCL (SSC TB)‘s Delisting Offer. There are also rumours of an Offer for Raffles Medical Group (RFMD SP).
Key updates took place on: L’Occitane (973 HK), Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP), MMA Offshore (MRM AU), and Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US).

Weekly Deals Digest (07 Jul) – ESR, L’Occitane, Hollysys, Aisin, Honda, Sanil, Shift Up, Timee

By Arun George

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Aisin (7259 JP), Honda Motor (7267 JP) placements; Sanil Electric (062040 KS), Shift Up (462870 KS) and Timee Inc (215A JP) IPOs.
Event-Driven developments: ESR Group (1821 HK), L’Occitane (973 HK), Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US).

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep 24: Reference Period Over; One Change Likely; US$733mn One-Way

The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
The reference period for the September 2024 index rebal event is now complete. In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations for index changes.
Our current estimates suggest one-way flows due to index changes and capping could be around US$733mn but that could change by early September 2024.

Asian Dividend Gems: Chow Tai Fook Jewellery

By Douglas Kim

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery’s shares are down 28.2% YTD, sharply underperforming the Hang Seng Index which is up 6% in the same period. We believe this divergence is excessive.
Chow Tai Fook’s dividend yield averaged 4.8% from FY20 to FY24. Its annual dividend payout averaged 107% in the same period.
Chai Tai Fook is currently trading at attractive valuations. It is trading at P/E of 10.1x, EV/EBITDA of 7.5x, and P/B of 2.9x based on FY25 consensus earnings estimates.

China Healthcare Weekly (July.7) – MNCs’ Next Move In Licensing Deals, Topchoice, Junshi’s Trouble

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

For all licensing cooperation with MNCs, we recommend that investors wait to see what MNCs’ next move is before deciding whether the cooperation is really promising.
Topchoice showed good business growth in 24Q2. Our biggest concern for Topchoice is that the unit price per customer may further decrease in the future, thereby affecting revenue/profit growth.
Junshi’s sales growth picked up in 24Q1, but concerns on Junshi persist. We don’t think Junshi is undervalued and its valuation should be lower than that of peers.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep 24: Final Ranks and Updated Flow Expectations

The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
In mid-June 2024, we had two expected ADDs and DELs for the September 2024 index rebal event and they remain unchanged even after the end of the reference period.
However, our capping flow expectations continue to change as the pro-forma post-rebalance weights change with share prices. In this insight, we have provided our latest flow estimates.

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Jul 07

Daily Brief Japan: Honda Motor and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

Last Week in Event SPACE: Barito Renewables, Honda, Raffles Medical, Daidoh, Hanwha Corp

Last Week in Event SPACE: Barito Renewables, Honda, Raffles Medical, Daidoh, Hanwha Corp

It’s just a question of when, not if, the bubble bursts for Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ), which is up 1,200% since it October 2023 IPO.
A Reuters article suggests a ¥500bn secondary offering for Honda Motor (7267 JP). Honda has since said there is smoke. And we can assume there is fire.
Loo Choon Yong, Raffles Medical Group (RFMD SP)‘s founder and major shareholder, continues to chip away at minorities, and now holds 54.944%,

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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

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Jul 07

Most Read: Hanwha Aerospace, Hanwha Corporation, Aisin , Mitsui Matsushima, Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index, Tesla , Hang Seng Index, L’Occitane, ASM Pacific Technology, Shift Up and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

What Did NPS Buy and Sell in Korean Stock Market in 2Q 2024?
Hanwha Corp Tender Offer Details & Arbitrage Trading Assessment
Aisin (7259 JP): The Current Playbook
JAPAN ACTIVISM: Murakami Target Mitsui Matsushima Cleans Up
Impact of Kim Byung-Hwan’s Appointment as Korea FSC Chairman on Value-Up Policy
Outpacing Delivery Expectations Sends Shares Soaring. Is Tesla the Most Undervalued AI Name?
EQD | Will the HSI Keep Falling In July?
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Sermsuk, L’Occitane, Shinko Electric, MMA Offshore, Hollysys
Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep 24: Reference Period Over; One Change Likely; US$733mn One-Way
Shift Up IPO: Final Allocation Results, Lockup Release Schedule, & Index Float Rates

What Did NPS Buy and Sell in Korean Stock Market in 2Q 2024?

By Douglas Kim

On 4 July, NPS disclosed the details of the ownership changes for 112 listed companies in Korea, of which 87 were listed in KOSPI and 25 in KOSDAQ.
In 2Q 2024, the NPS reduced its investments in defense and military stocks and increased investments in cosmetics, shipbuilding, and food companies in Korea.
NPS reduced its capital allocation to the military & defense sector. NPS reduced its stake in LIG Nex1 (-2.32%), Poongsan Corp (-2.24%), and Hanwha Aerospace (-1.02%).

Hanwha Corp Tender Offer Details & Arbitrage Trading Assessment

Hanwha Energy, wholly owned by the Hanwha Group’s owning family, announced a tender offer for an 8% stake in Hanwha Corp at ₩30,000. The tender period is until July 24.
Hanwha Energy will buy all shares if tendered less than planned, otherwise pro-rata. Payment in cash eliminates cancellation risk but poses allocation risk.
Approximately 10-15% of shares are likely to be the potential ceiling for tendering, minimizing allocation risk for the 8% target. A widening spread of 2-3% could offer arbitrage opportunities.

Aisin (7259 JP): The Current Playbook

By Arun George

Since the US$1.1 billion secondary placement announcement, Aisin (7259 JP)’s shares are up 2.5% from the undisturbed price of JPY5,243 per share (27 June).
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Aisin’s shares have deviated from the pattern of previous large placements.
The offering will likely be priced on 8 July. Investors who have participated in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.

JAPAN ACTIVISM: Murakami Target Mitsui Matsushima Cleans Up

By Travis Lundy

On 20 May, I wrote that Japanese activist MURAKAMI Yoshiaki and relations/affiliates had gone from 5% to 20% of Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) in 5 trading days.
I wondered if it was real, or a pump & dump, but they went to near 30% in following days. THEN they drifted off as Murakami-Fille sold while Murakami-Père bought.
The reasoning was not clear, but the story had real potential. Still does. Today, shareholders got more good news.

Impact of Kim Byung-Hwan’s Appointment as Korea FSC Chairman on Value-Up Policy

Kim Byung-hwan addressed criticism of weak incentives in tax support for the value-up policy, emphasizing boosting dividends. His background suggests effective advocacy for tax reforms in his new role.
He prioritized abolishing the FIIT in the National Assembly, citing its hindrance to capital market liquidity and investment promotion, indicating a robust approach to the value-up policy.
Kim’s appointment as FSC Chairman signals the government’s commitment to advancing the value-up policy. He emphasizes boosting dividends and aligning tax policies accordingly, shaping trading strategies toward dividend-expanding companies.

Outpacing Delivery Expectations Sends Shares Soaring. Is Tesla the Most Undervalued AI Name?

By Uttkarsh Kohli

Tesla delivered 443,956 vehicles in Q2 with production of 410,831 vehicles. It deployed a quarterly record of 9.4 GW hours of battery storage, its best quarter ever.
Tesla delivered 443,956 vehicles in Q2 with production of 410,831 vehicles. It deployed a quarterly record of 9.4 GW hours of battery storage, its best quarter ever.
Future remains uncertain for Tesla and its investors. Tesla shares are pricing in the launch of a lower priced model and Tesla’s Robotaxi on 8/8.

EQD | Will the HSI Keep Falling In July?

By Nico Rosti

After an explosive rally in April, the Hang Seng Index has been in a downtrend since mid-May, many are wondering where the index is headed next.
July 2024, based on our seasonal pattern analysis, does not have a great chance to close higher (it could, but the odds are not good).
If the index goes down in the next 2 weeks, buy the 17600-17300 price area.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Sermsuk, L’Occitane, Shinko Electric, MMA Offshore, Hollysys

I tally 49 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Just one new deal was discussed this week on Smartkarma: Sermsuk PCL (SSC TB)‘s Delisting Offer. There are also rumours of an Offer for Raffles Medical Group (RFMD SP).
Key updates took place on: L’Occitane (973 HK), Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP), MMA Offshore (MRM AU), and Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US).

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep 24: Reference Period Over; One Change Likely; US$733mn One-Way

The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
The reference period for the September 2024 index rebal event is now complete. In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations for index changes.
Our current estimates suggest one-way flows due to index changes and capping could be around US$733mn but that could change by early September 2024.

Shift Up IPO: Final Allocation Results, Lockup Release Schedule, & Index Float Rates

Notably, local hedge funds receive significant allocation, nearly 10%, unusual for KOSPI IPOs this size, differing from HD Hyundai Marine Solution.
KOSPI 200’s initial float rate is 14%, rising to 58% in six months. MSCI starts at 8%, reaching 12% in six months and 25% in a year.
Differences from HD Hyundai Marine Solution include high short-term strategies among institutions. Unlike before, local pension funds receive substantial allocation, potentially affecting stock price post-listing.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

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✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Analytics and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jul 07

Daily Brief ECM: Shift Up IPO: Final Allocation Results and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

Shift Up IPO: Final Allocation Results, Lockup Release Schedule, & Index Float Rates

Shift Up IPO: Final Allocation Results, Lockup Release Schedule, & Index Float Rates

Notably, local hedge funds receive significant allocation, nearly 10%, unusual for KOSPI IPOs this size, differing from HD Hyundai Marine Solution.
KOSPI 200’s initial float rate is 14%, rising to 58% in six months. MSCI starts at 8%, reaching 12% in six months and 25% in a year.
Differences from HD Hyundai Marine Solution include high short-term strategies among institutions. Unlike before, local pension funds receive substantial allocation, potentially affecting stock price post-listing.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jul 07

Daily Brief Event-Driven: (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Sermsuk and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Sermsuk, L’Occitane, Shinko Electric, MMA Offshore, Hollysys
Weekly Deals Digest (07 Jul) – ESR, L’Occitane, Hollysys, Aisin, Honda, Sanil, Shift Up, Timee
Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep 24: Reference Period Over; One Change Likely; US$733mn One-Way
Last Week in Event SPACE: Barito Renewables, Honda, Raffles Medical, Daidoh, Hanwha Corp
Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep 24: Final Ranks and Updated Flow Expectations

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Sermsuk, L’Occitane, Shinko Electric, MMA Offshore, Hollysys

I tally 49 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Just one new deal was discussed this week on Smartkarma: Sermsuk PCL (SSC TB)‘s Delisting Offer. There are also rumours of an Offer for Raffles Medical Group (RFMD SP).
Key updates took place on: L’Occitane (973 HK), Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP), MMA Offshore (MRM AU), and Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US).

Weekly Deals Digest (07 Jul) – ESR, L’Occitane, Hollysys, Aisin, Honda, Sanil, Shift Up, Timee

By Arun George

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Aisin (7259 JP), Honda Motor (7267 JP) placements; Sanil Electric (062040 KS), Shift Up (462870 KS) and Timee Inc (215A JP) IPOs.
Event-Driven developments: ESR Group (1821 HK), L’Occitane (973 HK), Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US).

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep 24: Reference Period Over; One Change Likely; US$733mn One-Way

The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
The reference period for the September 2024 index rebal event is now complete. In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations for index changes.
Our current estimates suggest one-way flows due to index changes and capping could be around US$733mn but that could change by early September 2024.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Barito Renewables, Honda, Raffles Medical, Daidoh, Hanwha Corp

It’s just a question of when, not if, the bubble bursts for Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ), which is up 1,200% since it October 2023 IPO.
A Reuters article suggests a ¥500bn secondary offering for Honda Motor (7267 JP). Honda has since said there is smoke. And we can assume there is fire.
Loo Choon Yong, Raffles Medical Group (RFMD SP)‘s founder and major shareholder, continues to chip away at minorities, and now holds 54.944%,

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep 24: Final Ranks and Updated Flow Expectations