Category

Daily Briefs

Jul 08
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | All-Time Highs and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | All-Time Highs
  • Apple Intelligence, Powered By ChatGPT. Genius Move Or Desperate Gamble?
  • GEMWeekly (5 Jul 2024): EU Tariffs on Chinese Online Goods; China Macro; Samsung, Reliance, PDD

Ohayo Japan | All-Time Highs

By Mark Chadwick

  • US stocks surged to all-time highs on Friday, buoyed by the June jobs report which may prompt the Federal Reserve to consider a rate cut.
  • Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) reported record gains of ¥45.4 trillion ($282 billion) for the fiscal year ending March
  • Honda and Sony will use a shared platform for their electric vehicles (EVs) to cut development costs

Apple Intelligence, Powered By ChatGPT. Genius Move Or Desperate Gamble?

By William Keating

  • Since Microsoft’s association with ChatGPT has become common knowledge, it’s share price has doubled
  • Since rumours of an impending partnership with OpenAI first emerged, Apple share price is up 37% 
  • The extraordinary valuations of Microsoft & Apple were driven by association with ChatGPT. Revenue growth to justify those valuations must now depend on ChatGPT. Let’s see how that works out.  

GEMWeekly (5 Jul 2024): EU Tariffs on Chinese Online Goods; China Macro; Samsung, Reliance, PDD

By Wium Malan, CFA

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Jul 08
0

Daily Brief ECM: Timee (215A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Timee (215A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights
  • SHEIN/Temu/AliExpress: As US Mulls Reforming “De Minimis” Rules, EU Could Take Similar Action
  • Timee Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation – Primed for a Decent Upside at the Current Range
  • ECM Weekly (8th July 2024) – Japan Cross-Shareholding, Honda, Aisin, Timee, Chenqi, Cirrus, Emcure
  • Shenzhen Yuejiang Technology IPO Preview: Dobot Files to List IPO on Hong Kong Stock Exchange
  • SF Holding Pre-IPO: Core EBITDA Margins Compare Favorably to Most Express Peers in China and US

Timee (215A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George

SHEIN/Temu/AliExpress: As US Mulls Reforming “De Minimis” Rules, EU Could Take Similar Action

By Daniel Hellberg

  • EU, like the US, is considering lowering “de minimis” import threshold, soon
  • Lowering import value thresholds or raising reporting requirements could make SHEIN/Temu/AliExpress goods more expensive, and fulfillment more onerous
  • Threat of “de minimis” changes coming just as SHEIN reportedly seeks an IPO

Timee Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation – Primed for a Decent Upside at the Current Range

By Clarence Chu

  • Timee Inc (215A JP) is looking to raise US$290m in its Japan IPO. The IPO will be a 100% secondary selldown by existing shareholders.
  • Timee operates an on-demand staffing platform that connects part-time jobseekers with businesses in Japan.
  • In an earlier note, we looked at the firm’s past performance and peer comparison. In this note, we discuss our thoughts on valuation.

ECM Weekly (8th July 2024) – Japan Cross-Shareholding, Honda, Aisin, Timee, Chenqi, Cirrus, Emcure

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
  • On the IPO front, we looked at the recently launced offerings of Timee Inc , Chenqi Technology Limited and Cirrus Aircraft.
  • On the placement front, this week too was dominated by the cross-shareholding unwinds, this time in Honda Motor (7267 JP).

Shenzhen Yuejiang Technology IPO Preview: Dobot Files to List IPO on Hong Kong Stock Exchange

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Shenzhen Yuejiang Technology (Dobot), a China-based cobot company, filed for a Hong Kong IPO. Cobots are robots with operational robotic arms intended for collaboration within a shared space.
  • Dobot was backed by CICC, CRRC VC, Greenpine Growth, Qianhai Equity, and China Internet Investment Fund, among others. The company was founded in 2015 in Shenzhen, PRC.
  • The offering may attract significant investor interest after South Korea’s robotics company Doosan Robotics could raise ~$318M in October 2023.

SF Holding Pre-IPO: Core EBITDA Margins Compare Favorably to Most Express Peers in China and US

By Daniel Hellberg

  • We believe SF’s core express margins are higher than most of its peers’ margins
  • But on 2023 EV / EBITDA SF trades at multiples below most Chinese, US peers
  • One objective of SF listing in HK is to attract global investors, lift valuation

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Jul 08
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Fy23 GPIF Results and Portfolio Changes – Outlook for FY24 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Fy23 GPIF Results and Portfolio Changes – Outlook for FY24
  • Canvest Environmental (1381 HK): Possible Privatisation at HK$4.90
  • Merger Arb Mondays (08 Jul) – China TCM, L’Occitane, A8 Media, GA Pack, Asia Cement, Hollysys, MMA
  • S&P/ASX 100/200 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Potential Replacements for Altium (ALU AU)
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 5 Jul 2024); SOE Bank and SOE Petro-Energy Flows Dominate
  • Shanghai Henlius Biotech Update (2696.HK) – The Story Behind Privatization
  • Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 5 July 2024): Finance, Consumer, IT Sold, Utilities Bought
  • STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Outright Adds Outperforming Outright Deletes
  • Rex Minerals (RXM AU)’s Scheme With The Salim Group
  • KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: For Now, A Dozen Changes in December

Fy23 GPIF Results and Portfolio Changes – Outlook for FY24

By Travis Lundy

  • Last year, the GPIF as a whole returned 22.67% in yen terms. As a whole, GPIF outperformed its benchmarks by 0.04% after paying 0.02% in fees and costs.
  • GPIF traded ¥30trln of assets – relatively high turnover for a fund which espouses very low turnover – but there’s a reason for that. There were also sharp active/passive moves.
  • This year is the last year in the “cycle” of the “old” Policy Allocation Framework. A new one is likely to be introduced this year.

Canvest Environmental (1381 HK): Possible Privatisation at HK$4.90

By Arun George

  • Grandblue Environment Co A (600323 CH) disclosed a potential pre-conditional privatisation of Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK) at HK$4.90 per share, a 20.7% premium to the last close price. 
  • Completing the capital injection from SOE entities into the offeror is a precondition. Grandblue also proposes that the controlling shareholder roll over 7.23% of its effective 44.75% stake. 
  • While not a knockout bid, the offer is reasonable. Shareholders with blocking stakes should support a binding proposal. Timing is the key risk. 

Merger Arb Mondays (08 Jul) – China TCM, L’Occitane, A8 Media, GA Pack, Asia Cement, Hollysys, MMA

By Arun George

S&P/ASX 100/200 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Potential Replacements for Altium (ALU AU)

By Brian Freitas

  • With all regulatory approvals received, the Scheme Meeting for Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)‘ acquisition of Altium Ltd (ALU AU) will take place on 12 July.
  • If approved at the Scheme Meeting and at the Second Court Hearing, Altium Ltd (ALU AU) will stop trading from the close on 19 July.
  • The replacements for Altium Ltd (ALU AU) in the ASX100/200 indices could be announced late this week with implementation at the close on 19 July.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 5 Jul 2024); SOE Bank and SOE Petro-Energy Flows Dominate

By Travis Lundy

  • SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$10.9bn this week, on smallish two-way volumes. Banks were a big buy.
  • The more I watch, the more I think the last few months have had serious national team buying of banks and energy, perhaps ahead of shareholder return policy changes.
  • But valuations are acceptable. Flows are good. Policy changes are afoot. SOUTHBOUND may continue to see inflows – national team and otherwise.

Shanghai Henlius Biotech Update (2696.HK) – The Story Behind Privatization

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Fosun’s preferred arrangement for Henlius is to list the Company in A-shares.Since IPO in A-shares failed and Henlius has begun to generate profits, Fosun finally feels the need for privatization.
  • Due to its “flaws”, undervaluation of Henlius in the Hong Kong stock market is difficult to fundamentally change. So, for conservative/cautious investors, Fosun’s one-time acquisition at a 30% premium is attractive.
  • The Potential Share Alternative Offer seems a good option, but it is uncertain whether investors are still willing to believe in Fosun’s “good story” – the future re-listing is uncertain.

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 5 July 2024): Finance, Consumer, IT Sold, Utilities Bought

By Travis Lundy

  • The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
  • Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 13.9bn of A-shares. NORTHBOUND bought utilities and raw materials and sold everything else, especially consumer names. Appliances remain on the sell side.
  • It is notable that net flows as a percentage of value traded are clearly “short gamma”, which is to say, sector underperformers are being sold, not bought.

STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Outright Adds Outperforming Outright Deletes

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the September rebalance ends 30 July. We expect the changes to be announced 30 August with the implementation taking place after the close on 13 September.
  • We forecast 6 changes for the index, including migrations between the STAR 100 Index and the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX).
  • Excluding the migrations, the potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes since the start of the calendar year and there could be further outperformance over the next few weeks.

Rex Minerals (RXM AU)’s Scheme With The Salim Group

By David Blennerhassett

  • Copper-Gold play Rex Minerals (RXM AU) has entered into a Scheme with MACH Australia.
  • MACH, wholly-owned by Indonesia’s Salim Group, is offering A$0.47/share in cash, a 71% premium to last close and a decade-high.
  • Rex shareholder approval and FIRB are the key conditions. Rex’s board is unanimously supportive. This Offer will tentatively complete late October.

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: For Now, A Dozen Changes in December

By Brian Freitas

  • With just over a third of the review period complete, there could be 12 changes for the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX EQUITY) at the December rebalance.
  • Even with 12 potential changes, there is sector balance with over half the changes in the Information Technology sector. Passive trading impact varies from 0.04-4.1x ADV.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) since the start of the year with a big move higher since mid-May.

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Jul 08
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Cathay Pacific (293 HK and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Cathay Pacific (293 HK, BUY, TP:HKD):
  • Silergy (6415.TT): Trial-Run with Vanguard, and Recent Stock Drops Represent an Entry Opportunity.
  • Vanguard (5347.TT): The Utilization to Improve over 70% in 3Q24.
  • China Consumption Weekly (8 Jul 2024): BYD, Seres, Tesla, Microsoft, XHS, Mixue
  • Mongolia Mining Corp (975 HK): Play on Coking Coal Price With Growth Optionality
  • Card Factory (CARD) – Sunday, Apr 7, 2024

Cathay Pacific (293 HK, BUY, TP:HKD):

By Mohshin Aziz

  • Operations are on track with earlier guidance given during FY23 results, loads and yields are healthy, with UK and North American performing better than expected  
  • Will buyback and cancel remaining 97.7m preference shares for a sum of HKD10b by end of July 2024. Shareholder dilution has been avoided  
  • Cathay Pacific is a value BUY, our target price of HK$9.90 (+24% UPSIDE) implies 10x FY2024 PE, parity multiple against its arch-rival Singapore Airlines (SIA SP) 

Silergy (6415.TT): Trial-Run with Vanguard, and Recent Stock Drops Represent an Entry Opportunity.

By Patrick Liao

  • We are surprised that Silergy Corp (6415 TT) is using Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT) to trial-run products.
  • The outlook for 2024 remains unchanged at over 20% YoY, and we still see a path to recovery ahead.
  • We consider the recent drop from NTD$526 on June 14th to NTD$429 on July 5th as an opportunity to consider entering the stock.

Vanguard (5347.TT): The Utilization to Improve over 70% in 3Q24.

By Patrick Liao

China Consumption Weekly (8 Jul 2024): BYD, Seres, Tesla, Microsoft, XHS, Mixue

By Ming Lu

  • BYD’s sales volume increased by 35% YoY in June and by 39% YoY in 2Q24.
  • Tesla’s Model Y is on the state-owned corporation procurement catalogs.
  • Microsoft plans to close its franchised store chain in China due to the weak demand for Surface.

Mongolia Mining Corp (975 HK): Play on Coking Coal Price With Growth Optionality

By Sameer Taneja

Card Factory (CARD) – Sunday, Apr 7, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • CARD is a UK microcap retailer with impressive qualities despite appearing unattractive at first glance
  • The company has shown consistent growth and gains market share each year in a stagnant market
  • With a strong balance sheet, high return on capital employed, and efficient CEO, CARD presents a compelling investment opportunity at a low valuation

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

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Jul 08
0

Daily Brief Macro: Fed Sees Economy Cooling as Leading Indicators Also Suggest Softer Looming Trend and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Fed Sees Economy Cooling as Leading Indicators Also Suggest Softer Looming Trend
  • Tops Are Processes
  • Copper Tracker July 2024: Physical/​Equity Screens And Trades
  • How Politics Is Intruding on Fed Policy
  • Japan: Is the Balance Sheet Recession Over?
  • Crop Prices Plunge as Favorable US Weather Accelerates Planting, Growth, & Harvesting

Fed Sees Economy Cooling as Leading Indicators Also Suggest Softer Looming Trend

By Said Desaque

  • Consumer confidence measures have been generally weaker in H1, thereby suggesting a major improvement in underlying spending trends is unlikely in the near-term. 
  • House price inflation has moderated due to lower demand, while banks have not loosened lending standards across all categories of mortgage loans. 
  • Recently released minutes of the latest FOMC meeting indicate that members expect the economy and inflation to cool, but they are in no hurry to lower the federal funds rate.

Tops Are Processes

By Cam Hui

  • Numerous warnings about a toppy market have been appearing , but they tend to be “this will not end well” warnings with no obvious bearish trigger.
  • Long-Term risks to equity prices are rising, but short-term price momentum is strong.
  • We believe that your decision to be bullish or bearish will depend on your time horizon.

Copper Tracker July 2024: Physical/​Equity Screens And Trades

By Sameer Taneja

How Politics Is Intruding on Fed Policy

By Cam Hui

  • Recent economic data is signaling a trend of growth deceleration, which raises the odds of a September rate cut.
  • Political considerations may derail a September easing decision as Powell may not achieve a unanimous vote, which would open the Fed to charges of interference in the electoral process.
  • The Supreme Court’s recent repudiation of the Chevron decision also opens the door to constraining future Fed policy to stabilize the financial system in the event of a crisis.

Japan: Is the Balance Sheet Recession Over?

By Alex Ng

  • Japan has suffered from a balance sheet recession, triggered by a sharp decline in asset value, since the 1990s.
  • As the Nikkei treads new height, it raises the question of whther the balance sheet recession is over.
  • Though some of the structural challenges remain, the balance sheet recession has improved in recent years.

Crop Prices Plunge as Favorable US Weather Accelerates Planting, Growth, & Harvesting

By Srinidhi Raghavendra

  • Corn and Wheat planted acreage are down 3% and 5% YoY, respectively. Meanwhile, Soybean total planted area is up by 5% YoY compared to 2023.
  • Planted acreage and ending stocks drove prices down for wheat and corn. Soybeans bucked the trend as reported acreage fell short of WASDE estimates by 400k acres.
  • A positive picture for 2024 planting season is visible, with the early benefits of warm temperatures and improved moisture levels setting the stage for strong yields.

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Jul 07
0

Daily Brief Industrials: JD Logistics and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep 24: Final Ranks and Updated Flow Expectations

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep 24: Final Ranks and Updated Flow Expectations

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
  • In mid-June 2024, we had two expected ADDs and DELs for the September 2024 index rebal event and they remain unchanged even after the end of the reference period.
  • However, our capping flow expectations continue to change as the pro-forma post-rebalance weights change with share prices. In this insight, we have provided our latest flow estimates.

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Jul 07
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: ASM Pacific Technology, Shift Up and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep 24: Reference Period Over; One Change Likely; US$733mn One-Way
  • Shift Up IPO: Final Allocation Results, Lockup Release Schedule, & Index Float Rates

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep 24: Reference Period Over; One Change Likely; US$733mn One-Way

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
  • The reference period for the September 2024 index rebal event is now complete. In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations for index changes.
  • Our current estimates suggest one-way flows due to index changes and capping could be around US$733mn but that could change by early September 2024.

Shift Up IPO: Final Allocation Results, Lockup Release Schedule, & Index Float Rates

By Sanghyun Park

  • Notably, local hedge funds receive significant allocation, nearly 10%, unusual for KOSPI IPOs this size, differing from HD Hyundai Marine Solution.
  • KOSPI 200’s initial float rate is 14%, rising to 58% in six months. MSCI starts at 8%, reaching 12% in six months and 25% in a year.
  • Differences from HD Hyundai Marine Solution include high short-term strategies among institutions. Unlike before, local pension funds receive substantial allocation, potentially affecting stock price post-listing.

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Jul 07
0

Daily Brief Industrials: JD Logistics and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep 24: Final Ranks and Updated Flow Expectations

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep 24: Final Ranks and Updated Flow Expectations

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
  • In mid-June 2024, we had two expected ADDs and DELs for the September 2024 index rebal event and they remain unchanged even after the end of the reference period.
  • However, our capping flow expectations continue to change as the pro-forma post-rebalance weights change with share prices. In this insight, we have provided our latest flow estimates.

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Jul 07
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV AU): Positive Clinical Trial Result; Base Business Going Strong
  • China Healthcare Weekly (July.7) – MNCs’ Next Move In Licensing Deals, Topchoice, Junshi’s Trouble

Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV AU): Positive Clinical Trial Result; Base Business Going Strong

By Tina Banerjee

  • Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV AU) released positive update from its CUV151 study, which was evaluating the DNA-repair capacity of afamelanotide on skin of healthy volunteers exposed to UV radiation.
  • Riding on high trajectory of lead therapy, Scenesse, thanks to the prescriber network growth, treatment demand, and number of prescriptions, Clinuvel has been consistently reporting profitable revenue growth.
  • Greater patient outreach to be facilitated by more specialty centers able to administer Scenesse in the U.S., expanding geographic footprint, and future label expansions are future growth engines.

China Healthcare Weekly (July.7) – MNCs’ Next Move In Licensing Deals, Topchoice, Junshi’s Trouble

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • For all licensing cooperation with MNCs, we recommend that investors wait to see what MNCs’ next move is before deciding whether the cooperation is really promising.
  • Topchoice showed good business growth in 24Q2. Our biggest concern for Topchoice is that the unit price per customer may further decrease in the future, thereby affecting revenue/profit growth.
  • Junshi’s sales growth picked up in 24Q1, but concerns on Junshi persist. We don’t think Junshi is undervalued and its valuation should be lower than that of peers.

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Jul 07
0

Daily Brief Financials: ESR Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Deals Digest (07 Jul) – ESR, L’Occitane, Hollysys, Aisin, Honda, Sanil, Shift Up, Timee

Weekly Deals Digest (07 Jul) – ESR, L’Occitane, Hollysys, Aisin, Honda, Sanil, Shift Up, Timee

By Arun George

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