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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Australia: Zip , Rex Minerals and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P/ASX 100/200 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Potential Replacements for Altium (ALU AU)
  • Rex Minerals (RXM AU)’s Scheme With The Salim Group


S&P/ASX 100/200 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Potential Replacements for Altium (ALU AU)

By Brian Freitas

  • With all regulatory approvals received, the Scheme Meeting for Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)‘ acquisition of Altium Ltd (ALU AU) will take place on 12 July.
  • If approved at the Scheme Meeting and at the Second Court Hearing, Altium Ltd (ALU AU) will stop trading from the close on 19 July.
  • The replacements for Altium Ltd (ALU AU) in the ASX100/200 indices could be announced late this week with implementation at the close on 19 July.

Rex Minerals (RXM AU)’s Scheme With The Salim Group

By David Blennerhassett

  • Copper-Gold play Rex Minerals (RXM AU) has entered into a Scheme with MACH Australia.
  • MACH, wholly-owned by Indonesia’s Salim Group, is offering A$0.47/share in cash, a 71% premium to last close and a decade-high.
  • Rex shareholder approval and FIRB are the key conditions. Rex’s board is unanimously supportive. This Offer will tentatively complete late October.

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Daily Brief South Korea: Clio Cosmetics and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: For Now, A Dozen Changes in December


KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: For Now, A Dozen Changes in December

By Brian Freitas

  • With just over a third of the review period complete, there could be 12 changes for the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX EQUITY) at the December rebalance.
  • Even with 12 potential changes, there is sector balance with over half the changes in the Information Technology sector. Passive trading impact varies from 0.04-4.1x ADV.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) since the start of the year with a big move higher since mid-May.

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Daily Brief India: NIFTY Index, Greentown China and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • EQD / NSE Vol Update / Regular Correlations Take Hold – Vols Drop as Market Soars
  • Morning Views Asia: Greentown China, NagaCorp Ltd, Vedanta Resources, Yuexiu Property


EQD / NSE Vol Update / Regular Correlations Take Hold – Vols Drop as Market Soars

By Sankalp Singh

  • Regular Spot-Vol Correlations reasserted – Implied Volatilities (IVs) traded lower as Equity Markets continued making new Highs.
  • As expected, Vol-Regime Switching Model is stuck in “High & Down” state. IVs projected to grind lower over an elongated period.      
  • Changes in Vol term-structure + Skew/ Smile compression – indicative of reduced risk-premia for July-end India Budget event.

Morning Views Asia: Greentown China, NagaCorp Ltd, Vedanta Resources, Yuexiu Property

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief United States: Copper, Corn Active Contract and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Copper Tracker July 2024: Physical/​Equity Screens And Trades
  • Crop Prices Plunge as Favorable US Weather Accelerates Planting, Growth, & Harvesting


Copper Tracker July 2024: Physical/​Equity Screens And Trades

By Sameer Taneja


Crop Prices Plunge as Favorable US Weather Accelerates Planting, Growth, & Harvesting

By Srinidhi Raghavendra

  • Corn and Wheat planted acreage are down 3% and 5% YoY, respectively. Meanwhile, Soybean total planted area is up by 5% YoY compared to 2023.
  • Planted acreage and ending stocks drove prices down for wheat and corn. Soybeans bucked the trend as reported acreage fell short of WASDE estimates by 400k acres.
  • A positive picture for 2024 planting season is visible, with the early benefits of warm temperatures and improved moisture levels setting the stage for strong yields.

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Daily Brief China: Canvest Environmental Protection Group, China Traditional Chinese Medicine, SHEIN, ICBC (H), Shanghai Henlius Biotech , Luxshare Precision Industry, GoodWe Technologies , Cathay Pacific Airways, Dobot, BYD and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Canvest Environmental (1381 HK): Possible Privatisation at HK$4.90
  • Merger Arb Mondays (08 Jul) – China TCM, L’Occitane, A8 Media, GA Pack, Asia Cement, Hollysys, MMA
  • SHEIN/Temu/AliExpress: As US Mulls Reforming “De Minimis” Rules, EU Could Take Similar Action
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 5 Jul 2024); SOE Bank and SOE Petro-Energy Flows Dominate
  • Shanghai Henlius Biotech Update (2696.HK) – The Story Behind Privatization
  • Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 5 July 2024): Finance, Consumer, IT Sold, Utilities Bought
  • STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Outright Adds Outperforming Outright Deletes
  • Cathay Pacific (293 HK, BUY, TP:HKD):
  • Shenzhen Yuejiang Technology IPO Preview: Dobot Files to List IPO on Hong Kong Stock Exchange
  • China Consumption Weekly (8 Jul 2024): BYD, Seres, Tesla, Microsoft, XHS, Mixue


Canvest Environmental (1381 HK): Possible Privatisation at HK$4.90

By Arun George

  • Grandblue Environment Co A (600323 CH) disclosed a potential pre-conditional privatisation of Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK) at HK$4.90 per share, a 20.7% premium to the last close price. 
  • Completing the capital injection from SOE entities into the offeror is a precondition. Grandblue also proposes that the controlling shareholder roll over 7.23% of its effective 44.75% stake. 
  • While not a knockout bid, the offer is reasonable. Shareholders with blocking stakes should support a binding proposal. Timing is the key risk. 


SHEIN/Temu/AliExpress: As US Mulls Reforming “De Minimis” Rules, EU Could Take Similar Action

By Daniel Hellberg

  • EU, like the US, is considering lowering “de minimis” import threshold, soon
  • Lowering import value thresholds or raising reporting requirements could make SHEIN/Temu/AliExpress goods more expensive, and fulfillment more onerous
  • Threat of “de minimis” changes coming just as SHEIN reportedly seeks an IPO

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 5 Jul 2024); SOE Bank and SOE Petro-Energy Flows Dominate

By Travis Lundy

  • SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$10.9bn this week, on smallish two-way volumes. Banks were a big buy.
  • The more I watch, the more I think the last few months have had serious national team buying of banks and energy, perhaps ahead of shareholder return policy changes.
  • But valuations are acceptable. Flows are good. Policy changes are afoot. SOUTHBOUND may continue to see inflows – national team and otherwise.

Shanghai Henlius Biotech Update (2696.HK) – The Story Behind Privatization

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Fosun’s preferred arrangement for Henlius is to list the Company in A-shares.Since IPO in A-shares failed and Henlius has begun to generate profits, Fosun finally feels the need for privatization.
  • Due to its “flaws”, undervaluation of Henlius in the Hong Kong stock market is difficult to fundamentally change. So, for conservative/cautious investors, Fosun’s one-time acquisition at a 30% premium is attractive.
  • The Potential Share Alternative Offer seems a good option, but it is uncertain whether investors are still willing to believe in Fosun’s “good story” – the future re-listing is uncertain.

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 5 July 2024): Finance, Consumer, IT Sold, Utilities Bought

By Travis Lundy

  • The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
  • Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 13.9bn of A-shares. NORTHBOUND bought utilities and raw materials and sold everything else, especially consumer names. Appliances remain on the sell side.
  • It is notable that net flows as a percentage of value traded are clearly “short gamma”, which is to say, sector underperformers are being sold, not bought.

STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Outright Adds Outperforming Outright Deletes

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the September rebalance ends 30 July. We expect the changes to be announced 30 August with the implementation taking place after the close on 13 September.
  • We forecast 6 changes for the index, including migrations between the STAR 100 Index and the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX).
  • Excluding the migrations, the potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes since the start of the calendar year and there could be further outperformance over the next few weeks.

Cathay Pacific (293 HK, BUY, TP:HKD):

By Mohshin Aziz

  • Operations are on track with earlier guidance given during FY23 results, loads and yields are healthy, with UK and North American performing better than expected  
  • Will buyback and cancel remaining 97.7m preference shares for a sum of HKD10b by end of July 2024. Shareholder dilution has been avoided  
  • Cathay Pacific is a value BUY, our target price of HK$9.90 (+24% UPSIDE) implies 10x FY2024 PE, parity multiple against its arch-rival Singapore Airlines (SIA SP) 

Shenzhen Yuejiang Technology IPO Preview: Dobot Files to List IPO on Hong Kong Stock Exchange

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Shenzhen Yuejiang Technology (Dobot), a China-based cobot company, filed for a Hong Kong IPO. Cobots are robots with operational robotic arms intended for collaboration within a shared space.
  • Dobot was backed by CICC, CRRC VC, Greenpine Growth, Qianhai Equity, and China Internet Investment Fund, among others. The company was founded in 2015 in Shenzhen, PRC.
  • The offering may attract significant investor interest after South Korea’s robotics company Doosan Robotics could raise ~$318M in October 2023.

China Consumption Weekly (8 Jul 2024): BYD, Seres, Tesla, Microsoft, XHS, Mixue

By Ming Lu

  • BYD’s sales volume increased by 35% YoY in June and by 39% YoY in 2Q24.
  • Tesla’s Model Y is on the state-owned corporation procurement catalogs.
  • Microsoft plans to close its franchised store chain in China due to the weak demand for Surface.

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Daily Brief Japan: TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Timee Inc, Toyota Motor and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Fy23 GPIF Results and Portfolio Changes – Outlook for FY24
  • Timee (215A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights
  • Timee Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation – Primed for a Decent Upside at the Current Range
  • ECM Weekly (8th July 2024) – Japan Cross-Shareholding, Honda, Aisin, Timee, Chenqi, Cirrus, Emcure
  • The Key to Higher ROE Is Higher Profit Margins and Faster Efforts by Smaller Companies


Fy23 GPIF Results and Portfolio Changes – Outlook for FY24

By Travis Lundy

  • Last year, the GPIF as a whole returned 22.67% in yen terms. As a whole, GPIF outperformed its benchmarks by 0.04% after paying 0.02% in fees and costs.
  • GPIF traded ¥30trln of assets – relatively high turnover for a fund which espouses very low turnover – but there’s a reason for that. There were also sharp active/passive moves.
  • This year is the last year in the “cycle” of the “old” Policy Allocation Framework. A new one is likely to be introduced this year.

Timee (215A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George


Timee Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation – Primed for a Decent Upside at the Current Range

By Clarence Chu

  • Timee Inc (215A JP) is looking to raise US$290m in its Japan IPO. The IPO will be a 100% secondary selldown by existing shareholders.
  • Timee operates an on-demand staffing platform that connects part-time jobseekers with businesses in Japan.
  • In an earlier note, we looked at the firm’s past performance and peer comparison. In this note, we discuss our thoughts on valuation.

ECM Weekly (8th July 2024) – Japan Cross-Shareholding, Honda, Aisin, Timee, Chenqi, Cirrus, Emcure

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
  • On the IPO front, we looked at the recently launced offerings of Timee Inc , Chenqi Technology Limited and Cirrus Aircraft.
  • On the placement front, this week too was dominated by the cross-shareholding unwinds, this time in Honda Motor (7267 JP).

The Key to Higher ROE Is Higher Profit Margins and Faster Efforts by Smaller Companies

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Since TSE’s request, more companies have used ROE or ROIC as KPIs in mid-term management plans, but even now, more companies only indicate targets for sales, operating profit, etc.
  • Larger companies have been the first to raise ROE; the key will be for smaller companies, which have been slower to improve their ROE, to raise their ROE.
  • Many companies have only just begun to reduce their policy shareholdings and strengthen shareholder returns, and are still in the process of addressing the core issue of increasing profit margins.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: A/H Premium Tracker (To 5 Jul 2024):  Spread Curve Torsion Still Strong and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 5 Jul 2024):  Spread Curve Torsion Still Strong
  • A-H Premium Weekly (Jul 5th): China Tourism, Ganfeng Lithium, China East Air, Petrochina
  • Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jul 5th): CCB, China Mobile, ICBC, CMB, Petrochina, Tencent
  • KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 5th): Samsung Electronics, Sk Hynix
  • Northbound Flows (Jul 5th): 4 Weeks of Outflows
  • TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 5th): TSMC, Zhen Ding Tech, Realtek Semi, Cathay Financial
  • TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jul 5th): Taiwan Mobile, Lite-On Tech, Far Eastone Tele, L&K Engineering


A/H Premium Tracker (To 5 Jul 2024):  Spread Curve Torsion Still Strong

By Travis Lundy

  • The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
  • SOUTHBOUND inflow continues, albeit smaller. SOE Banks/Energy remain a big net buy. SOUTHBOUND Net buying as a percent of volume on SOE Banks and Energy is HUGE.
  • Wide spreads (high AH premium) saw H outperform, but narrow spreads saw Hs underperform significantly. Again.

A-H Premium Weekly (Jul 5th): China Tourism, Ganfeng Lithium, China East Air, Petrochina

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 104.4% as of Jul 5th.
  • The average A-H premium changed by -1.2ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, information technology, health care and offset by communication services, real estate.
  • We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Tourism, Ganfeng Lithium, China East Air, Petrochina.

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jul 5th): CCB, China Mobile, ICBC, CMB, Petrochina, Tencent

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 5th.
  • The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
  • We highlight flows for CCB, China Mobile, ICBC, CMB, Petrochina, Tencent.

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 5th): Samsung Electronics, Sk Hynix

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX Stocks as of Jul 5th which has an aggregated holding worth USD576.9bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD409mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We highlight foreign changes in Samsung Electronics(005930 KS) , Sk Hynix(000660 KS) .

Northbound Flows (Jul 5th): 4 Weeks of Outflows

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 5th.
  • We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$1,769.7 million, led by information technology, materials, industrials, and offset by communication services, real estate, utilities.
  • We note that outflows have been consecutive for four weeks and highlight outflows for CATL (300750 CH).

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 5th): TSMC, Zhen Ding Tech, Realtek Semi, Cathay Financial

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jul 5th which has an aggregated holding worth USD1,012.0bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD531mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Zhen Ding Tech, Realtek Semi, Cathay Financial, Compeq Mfg, Far Eastone Tele, Taiwan Mobile, Lite-On Tech, Asia Vital, Novatek.

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jul 5th): Taiwan Mobile, Lite-On Tech, Far Eastone Tele, L&K Engineering

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Jul 5th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD22.2bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Taiwan Mobile, Lite-On Tech, Far Eastone Tele, L&K Engineering, Evergreen Marine, ASE, Hon Hai, Asia Vital.

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Daily Brief ESG: The Key to Higher ROE Is Higher Profit Margins and Faster Efforts by Smaller Companies and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • The Key to Higher ROE Is Higher Profit Margins and Faster Efforts by Smaller Companies


The Key to Higher ROE Is Higher Profit Margins and Faster Efforts by Smaller Companies

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Since TSE’s request, more companies have used ROE or ROIC as KPIs in mid-term management plans, but even now, more companies only indicate targets for sales, operating profit, etc.
  • Larger companies have been the first to raise ROE; the key will be for smaller companies, which have been slower to improve their ROE, to raise their ROE.
  • Many companies have only just begun to reduce their policy shareholdings and strengthen shareholder returns, and are still in the process of addressing the core issue of increasing profit margins.

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Greentown China and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Greentown China, NagaCorp Ltd, Vedanta Resources, Yuexiu Property


Morning Views Asia: Greentown China, NagaCorp Ltd, Vedanta Resources, Yuexiu Property

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Most Read: Mitsui Matsushima, Aisin , TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Canvest Environmental Protection Group, Honda Motor, China Traditional Chinese Medicine, Zip , Timee Inc, ICBC (H) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • JAPAN ACTIVISM: Murakami Target Mitsui Matsushima Cleans Up
  • Aisin (7259 JP): The Current Playbook
  • Fy23 GPIF Results and Portfolio Changes – Outlook for FY24
  • Canvest Environmental (1381 HK): Possible Privatisation at HK$4.90
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Barito Renewables, Honda, Raffles Medical, Daidoh, Hanwha Corp
  • Merger Arb Mondays (08 Jul) – China TCM, L’Occitane, A8 Media, GA Pack, Asia Cement, Hollysys, MMA
  • S&P/ASX 100/200 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Potential Replacements for Altium (ALU AU)
  • Timee (215A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights
  • Timee Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation – Primed for a Decent Upside at the Current Range
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 5 Jul 2024); SOE Bank and SOE Petro-Energy Flows Dominate


JAPAN ACTIVISM: Murakami Target Mitsui Matsushima Cleans Up

By Travis Lundy

  • On 20 May, I wrote that Japanese activist MURAKAMI Yoshiaki and relations/affiliates had gone from 5% to 20% of Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) in 5 trading days.
  • I wondered if it was real, or a pump & dump, but they went to near 30% in following days. THEN they drifted off as Murakami-Fille sold while Murakami-Père bought. 
  • The reasoning was not clear, but the story had real potential. Still does. Today, shareholders got more good news. 

Aisin (7259 JP): The Current Playbook

By Arun George

  • Since the US$1.1 billion secondary placement announcement, Aisin (7259 JP)’s shares are up 2.5% from the undisturbed price of JPY5,243 per share (27 June).
  • Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Aisin’s shares have deviated from the pattern of previous large placements.
  • The offering will likely be priced on 8 July. Investors who have participated in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.

Fy23 GPIF Results and Portfolio Changes – Outlook for FY24

By Travis Lundy

  • Last year, the GPIF as a whole returned 22.67% in yen terms. As a whole, GPIF outperformed its benchmarks by 0.04% after paying 0.02% in fees and costs.
  • GPIF traded ¥30trln of assets – relatively high turnover for a fund which espouses very low turnover – but there’s a reason for that. There were also sharp active/passive moves.
  • This year is the last year in the “cycle” of the “old” Policy Allocation Framework. A new one is likely to be introduced this year.

Canvest Environmental (1381 HK): Possible Privatisation at HK$4.90

By Arun George

  • Grandblue Environment Co A (600323 CH) disclosed a potential pre-conditional privatisation of Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK) at HK$4.90 per share, a 20.7% premium to the last close price. 
  • Completing the capital injection from SOE entities into the offeror is a precondition. Grandblue also proposes that the controlling shareholder roll over 7.23% of its effective 44.75% stake. 
  • While not a knockout bid, the offer is reasonable. Shareholders with blocking stakes should support a binding proposal. Timing is the key risk. 

Last Week in Event SPACE: Barito Renewables, Honda, Raffles Medical, Daidoh, Hanwha Corp

By David Blennerhassett

  • It’s just a question of when, not if, the bubble bursts for Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ), which is up 1,200% since it October 2023 IPO. 
  • A Reuters article suggests a ¥500bn secondary offering for Honda Motor (7267 JP). Honda has since said there is smoke. And we can assume there is fire.
  • Loo Choon Yong, Raffles Medical Group (RFMD SP)‘s founder and major shareholder, continues to chip away at minorities, and now holds 54.944%,


S&P/ASX 100/200 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Potential Replacements for Altium (ALU AU)

By Brian Freitas

  • With all regulatory approvals received, the Scheme Meeting for Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)‘ acquisition of Altium Ltd (ALU AU) will take place on 12 July.
  • If approved at the Scheme Meeting and at the Second Court Hearing, Altium Ltd (ALU AU) will stop trading from the close on 19 July.
  • The replacements for Altium Ltd (ALU AU) in the ASX100/200 indices could be announced late this week with implementation at the close on 19 July.

Timee (215A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George


Timee Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation – Primed for a Decent Upside at the Current Range

By Clarence Chu

  • Timee Inc (215A JP) is looking to raise US$290m in its Japan IPO. The IPO will be a 100% secondary selldown by existing shareholders.
  • Timee operates an on-demand staffing platform that connects part-time jobseekers with businesses in Japan.
  • In an earlier note, we looked at the firm’s past performance and peer comparison. In this note, we discuss our thoughts on valuation.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 5 Jul 2024); SOE Bank and SOE Petro-Energy Flows Dominate

By Travis Lundy

  • SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$10.9bn this week, on smallish two-way volumes. Banks were a big buy.
  • The more I watch, the more I think the last few months have had serious national team buying of banks and energy, perhaps ahead of shareholder return policy changes.
  • But valuations are acceptable. Flows are good. Policy changes are afoot. SOUTHBOUND may continue to see inflows – national team and otherwise.

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