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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Rex Minerals, Posco Future M, First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge, Schlumberger Ltd, CES Energy Solutions, Ocean Power Technologies, PT Pertamina (Persero) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Who’s Winning from Rex’s $400m Bid?
  • KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Lots of Change; Shift Up Listing Adds to It
  • AI Surge Increases Power Consumption Leading to Energy Shifts
  • Schlumberger’s International Strength to Propel Q2 Growth
  • Ces Energy Solutions Corp (CEU.) – Tuesday, Apr 9, 2024
  • Ocean Power Technologies, Inc. – Wins on Multiple Fronts
  • Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , PT Pertamina (Persero), Sunny Optical Technology Group


Who’s Winning from Rex’s $400m Bid?

By Money of Mine

  • Rex Minerals being acquired by major shareholder, Selim Group, for $393 million
  • Acquisition comes after extensive partnering process and recent investment by Mac with 16% shareholding
  • Rex’s Hillside project in South Australia has historical challenges but now looks set for development with new ownership and funding capabilities

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Lots of Change; Shift Up Listing Adds to It

By Brian Freitas


AI Surge Increases Power Consumption Leading to Energy Shifts

By Uttkarsh Kohli

  • AI advancements will increase data center power demand by 160% by 2030, consuming 8% of U.S. electricity.
  • A single ChatGPT query uses 2.9 watt-hours of electricity, compared to 0.3 watt-hours for a Google search.
  • 2 of the 5 top performing stocks year-to-date in the S&P 500 are utility companies Vistra Corp and Constellation Energy. Utility sector has gained 6.7% in 2024. 

Schlumberger’s International Strength to Propel Q2 Growth

By Suhas Reddy

  • Schlumberger’s revenue is expected to rise 12.1% YoY and net profit by 15.3% YoY in Q2 2024. Management sees sequential margin growth across divisions.
  • Q2 growth is expected to be driven by SLB’s International segment, offsetting North American weakness. The International segment contributed 82% of Q1 revenue.
  • SLB announced plans to increase shareholder returns from USD 2.5 billion to USD 3 billion in 2024 and to USD 4 billion in 2025.

Ces Energy Solutions Corp (CEU.) – Tuesday, Apr 9, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • CES Energy (CEU) is an asset lite oil field services company focused on drilling fluids and production chemicals
  • Trading at C$5.55 per share with a US$931MM market cap
  • Analysts project a 75% upside potential with a valuation of C$10 per share by FY25 due to expected mid-single digit earnings growth and cashflow return to shareholders at a 13% yield

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Ocean Power Technologies, Inc. – Wins on Multiple Fronts

By Water Tower Research

  • OPT has partnered with Unique Group, a UAE-based subsea technology company that aims to deploy OPT’s USVs in the UAE and GCC region.
  • The partnership aims to develop a new GCC-specific USV model (WAM-V 22) that adheres to local safety regulations and prioritizes environmental efficiency.
  • OPT, a developer of low-carbon marine power solutions, signed an OEM agreement with Teledyne Marine, a supplier of maritime equipment.

Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , PT Pertamina (Persero), Sunny Optical Technology Group

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Kokusai Electric , CELSYS, Micron Technology, Shift Up, Netdragon Websoft, Arlo Technologies Inc, Cirrus Logic, Accenture Plc Cl A, BILL Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • KKR To Sell a 20-22% Stake in Kokusai Electric (6525)?
  • Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Rumoured KKR US$1.8 Billion Secondary Offering
  • TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (July 2024)
  • Micron Technology Inc.: Will Its Expansion into Data Center and AI Markets Result In A Massive Runup? – Major Drivers
  • Shift Up IPO Trading – Strong Demand for Quality Asset but It Has Slipped Out of the Top Games
  • Netdragon (777 HK) – Tuesday, Apr 9, 2024
  • ARLO: Accelerated Pace of Growth
  • Cirrus Logic Inc.: Market Expansion Into Laptops & PCs & Major Drivers
  • Accenture plc: How They Are Enabling Growth Through Acquisitions
  • Bill.com Holdings Inc.: Focus on International Expansion through Enhanced Payment Systems! – Major Drivers


KKR To Sell a 20-22% Stake in Kokusai Electric (6525)?

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, a Reuters article came out saying that KKR would sell down half its 43% stake in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) according to “two people familiar with the matter.”
  • The article also said Kokusai Electric would buy back shares. Kokusai responded with a TDNET release saying “we did not release this info but we are considering various capital policies.
  • It pays to look at the Shareholder Structure as it stands. This is bigger than it looks. 

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Rumoured KKR US$1.8 Billion Secondary Offering

By Arun George

  • Reuters reported that KKR & Co (KKR US), the largest Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) shareholder, plans to sell about half of its 43% stake, worth around JPY300 billion.
  • As Kokusai’s shares are trading at 3.2x the IPO price of JPY1,840, KKR would be tempted to reduce its stake further. The 180-day IPO lock-up period expired on 22 April.
  • Kokusai anticipates a return to growth and margin improvement. However, Kokusai trades at a material premium to peer multiples and is fully priced. 

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (July 2024)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
  • In the last few days, SUNWELS Co (9229 JP) and Macbee Planet (7095 JP) have announced their moves to TSE prime which would eventually trigger a TOPIX Inclusion event.
  • Macbee Planet was in our highest conviction list but SUNWELS Co was not. In this insight, we have made some modifications to our methodology to improve future hit rates.

Micron Technology Inc.: Will Its Expansion into Data Center and AI Markets Result In A Massive Runup? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Micron Technology recently provided insights into their fiscal third quarter 2024 performance, shedding light on various strategic and operational aspects that investors may find critical in shaping their investment thesis.
  • Amid a challenging global semiconductor landscape characterized by rapid technological advancements and fluctuating demand cycles, Micron appears cautiously optimistic about the future, driven by strategic investments and a focus on high-margin products.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Shift Up IPO Trading – Strong Demand for Quality Asset but It Has Slipped Out of the Top Games

By Sumeet Singh

  • Shift Up (462870 KS) raised around US$320m in its South Korean IPO, after pricing at the top.
  • Shift Up is a South Korean games developer, which as released three games so far for the global markets.
  • We have looked at the company’s performance and valuation in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Netdragon (777 HK) – Tuesday, Apr 9, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • NetDragon’s stock is priced at 11.0 HKD with 531 million shares and a market cap of 5,870 HKD
  • Company completed a reverse merger listing for its education business, causing some complications, but gaming business is seen as a hidden gem with growth potential
  • NetDragon, operated by the Liu family, has a history of successful business incubation and has returned around 50% of its market capitalization to shareholders in the past three years

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


ARLO: Accelerated Pace of Growth

By Hamed Khorsand

  • ARLO announced it had reached 4 million paid accounts approximately four months after achieving 3 million paid accounts. 
  • The pace of growth is most likely the result of catch-up calculations related to Verisure. However, this should not take away from the magnitude of increase in the number.
  • The higher baseline of subscriber numbers should change the annualized recurring revenue (“ARR”) for ARLO compared to the end of the first quarter.  

Cirrus Logic Inc.: Market Expansion Into Laptops & PCs & Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Cirrus Logic has presented its financial results for the fourth quarter and the entire fiscal year 2024, revealing mixed outcomes that highlight both challenges and growth opportunities.
  • The company reported a fourth-quarter revenue of $378.1 million, surpassing the upper edge of the guidance range.
  • This surge was attributed to an unexpected rise in demand for smartphone components.

Accenture plc: How They Are Enabling Growth Through Acquisitions

By Baptista Research

  • Accenture’s latest financial results highlight a dynamic and multifaceted performance.
  • The fiscal year has seen client spending patterns diverge from initial expectations, with a clear preference for large-scale transformations over smaller, discretionary projects.
  • This shift has led to slower revenue conversion and delayed decision making, necessitating a strategic pivot by Accenture.

Bill.com Holdings Inc.: Focus on International Expansion through Enhanced Payment Systems! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • BILL reported strong fiscal third quarter 2027 results, highlighting robust revenue growth and significant expansion in non-GAAP operating income.
  • Revenue increased by 19% year-over-year, driven by high transaction volumes and an effective monetization strategy.
  • The reception of their financial management solutions among small businesses remains vigorous, as evidenced by the processing of over 25 million transactions amounting to more than $70 billion during the quarter.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Emcure Pharmaceuticals, UMP Healthcare, EC Healthcare, New Horizon Health , Oryzon Genomics, BioNTech and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Emcure Pharma Pre-IPO Trading – Strong Subscription, Will Pop
  • UMP Healthcare (722 HK): Parsing the Announcement on The Major One-Time Gain
  • EC Healthcare (2138 HK): Shares at Multi-Year Low; Still Not a Value Buying Opportunity
  • New Horizon Health (6606 HK) – Behind the Trading Suspension and the Outlook
  • Oryzon Genomics – Strengthening vafidemstat’s IP profile
  • BioNTech SE: Expansion into Oncology and Cancer Therapies & Other Major Drivers


Emcure Pharma Pre-IPO Trading – Strong Subscription, Will Pop

By Sumeet Singh

  • Emcure Pharmaceuticals raised around US$240m in its India IPO. Subscription rates were strong.
  • Emcure Pharmaceuticals (EP) is an Indian Pharmaceutical company engaged in the developing, manufacturing and globally marketing a broad range of pharmaceutical products across several major therapeutic areas.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

UMP Healthcare (722 HK): Parsing the Announcement on The Major One-Time Gain

By Sameer Taneja

  • The company announced a settlement with its subsidiary of 18 mn HKD. This is material as we estimate that core profit for FY24 (June-end) would be 30-35 mn HKD. 
  • This settlement will be paid in cash (tranches) as it involves making the company whole on a vendor’s profit guarantee shortfall. It boosts cash and investments >340 mn HKD. 
  • The stock is cheap, with net cash almost equal to the market capitalization, an 11x PE (on core profit), and a 9% dividend yield. 

EC Healthcare (2138 HK): Shares at Multi-Year Low; Still Not a Value Buying Opportunity

By Tina Banerjee

  • EC Healthcare (2138 HK) reported muted FY24 result. While revenue increased 9% YoY to a record high of HK$4.2B, EBITDA and net profit declined 10% and 85%, YoY, respectively.
  • The reopening of borders saw a slower-than-anticipated recovery in revenue from Chinese Mainland medical tourism. The prevailing high interest rate, inflationary pressure, and economic uncertainties have made the operations challenging.
  • EC Healthcare shares plunged ~70% over the last one year. Although the company has long-term growth drivers and margin levers, there is short-term uncertainties over financial performance improvement.

New Horizon Health (6606 HK) – Behind the Trading Suspension and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • New Horizon Health is a “big client” of Deloitte, who, however, still delay the publication of 2023 results. This leads us to take the issues raised by Deloitte more seriously.
  • It’s uncertain whether New Horizon Health would obtain the audit report with non-qualified opinion or “survive” the independent investigation.2023 Annual Report/2024 Mid-Year Report/2024 Annual Report may continue to be postponed.
  • If New Horizon Health fails provide reasonable explanation, investors don’t need to spend any more time on the Company with no integrity.We forecast the timetable for the resumption of trading.

Oryzon Genomics – Strengthening vafidemstat’s IP profile

By Edison Investment Research

Oryzon Genomics continues to fortify its IP profile for vafidemstat, which is being developed for borderline personality disorder (BPD) and for the potential application to attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Oryzon has received positive acceptance decisions for two incremental patent applications from the Japanese Patent Office (JPO), which should provide protection until 2040 (excluding potential extensions). Oryzon was also notified of similar patent grants from the European and Korean patent offices, which may extend the drug’s exclusivity in those jurisdictions. Oryzon is advancing its lead CNS asset towards an end-of-Phase II (EoP2) meeting with the FDA to discuss a potentially registrational Phase III trial in BPD. Vafidemstat already holds composition of matter patents in the US and EU providing protection up to 2037 and 2036, respectively.


BioNTech SE: Expansion into Oncology and Cancer Therapies & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • BioNTech’s First Quarter 2024 Earnings Call highlighted a strategic focus on their late-stage oncology pipeline and continued initiatives surrounding their COVID-19 vaccine offerings.
  • The company’s advancement in multiple pivotal Phase III clinical trials, primarily in oncology, and preparation for upcoming new strains of COVID-19 vaccines suggests a pivotal transformation period.
  • Positively, BioNTech’s progression in oncology is notable with its comprehensive approach of integrating multiple therapeutic solutions.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Recruit Holdings, LS Marine Solution, Sanil Electric, Dobot, Aeon Delight, FedEx Corp, MillerKnoll and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Recruit (6098 JP) – BIG Headline Buyback But Disappointing if That Is Best Use Of Cash
  • Insiders Buying and Selling Prior To Mandatory Block Deal Pre-Announcement Requirement in Korea
  • Sanil Electric IPO – Stars Aligned with High Growth and Strong Sentiment
  • Shenzhen Yuejiang Technology IPO: What’s The IPO Valuation? Long-Term Growth Prospects
  • Aeon Delight (9787 JP): Q1 FY02/25 flash update
  • FedEx Corporation: Can The Potential Sale of FedEx Freight Enable Some Kind Of Strategic Growth? – Major Drivers
  • MillerKnoll, Inc. – Updating FY25 and FY26 EPS and Revenue Estimates


Recruit (6098 JP) – BIG Headline Buyback But Disappointing if That Is Best Use Of Cash

By Travis Lundy

  • Last December, Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) announced a ¥200bn buyback which sounded big but with lots of cross-holders, wasn’t huge. The stock is up 80% in 6+ months since.
  • Today, the company announced a new buyback of ¥600bn. This is very aggressive, and at 25x EBITDA and 40x PER, is probably due to demand to sell. 
  • Crossholders now hold ¥2trln which is three-plus times this buyback. And if the price were to rise 10% a year for 3yrs, it would be four times.

Insiders Buying and Selling Prior To Mandatory Block Deal Pre-Announcement Requirement in Korea

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss recent, active insiders buying and selling their shares prior to the mandatory block deal pre-announcement requirement starting 24 July in Korea.
  • The three companies that announced insiders selling (July) are down on average 3% YTD. However, the three companies that announced insiders buying (July) are up on average 74% YTD. 
  • LS Cable has been consistently increasing its ownership of LS Marine Solution, up from 46% stake as of 27 May 2024 to 56.14% as of 8 July 2024.

Sanil Electric IPO – Stars Aligned with High Growth and Strong Sentiment

By Ethan Aw

  • Sanil Electric (062040 KS) is looking to raise up to US$165m in its Korean IPO.
  • Sanil Electric is a specialized company that manufactures and sells reactors, transformers, railway vehicle parts, and switchboards. As an industrial transformer manufacturer, the company mainly manufactures power and distribution transformers.
  • In our previous notes, we talked about the company’s historical performance. In this note, we undertake a quick peer comparison and share our thoughts on valuation.

Shenzhen Yuejiang Technology IPO: What’s The IPO Valuation? Long-Term Growth Prospects

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Shenzhen Yuejiang Technology (Dobot), a Shenzhen-based cobot company with a diversified customer base globally, filed publicly for Hong Kong IPO.
  • The terms of the IPO were not disclosed. The robotics company plans to increase production capacity due to high demand in the coming years.
  • Dobot may be trading above the last round valuation of ~RMB3.5b, but I believe investors should focus on the company’s long-term growth prospects and rapidly growing TAM.

Aeon Delight (9787 JP): Q1 FY02/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Sales increased by 2.5% YoY to JPY81.1bn, operating profit decreased by 5.2% YoY to JPY3.3bn.
  • Sales growth in Facilities Management, Security Services, Cleaning Services, and Materials and Supplies Sourcing Services contributed to overall revenue increase.
  • Operating profit fell YoY due to higher SG&A expenses despite segment profit growth in several divisions.

FedEx Corporation: Can The Potential Sale of FedEx Freight Enable Some Kind Of Strategic Growth? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • FedEx Corporation delivered a robust finish to its fiscal year 2024, showcasing a mixture of challenges and triumphs that reflect the intricate dynamics of the current global logistics and transportation landscape.
  • In its fourth quarter, FedEx managed to inflect positive revenue growth amid an environment characterized by continuous demand volatilities and transitioning market conditions, all while advancing significant structural reforms aimed at improving efficiency and profitability.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

MillerKnoll, Inc. – Updating FY25 and FY26 EPS and Revenue Estimates

By Water Tower Research

  • Herein, we refresh our estimates and economic model for MillerKnoll after its release and conference call for 4QFY24, which ended May 2024.
  • As noted in our earlier earnings analysis note dated June 27, 2024, management delivered strong margins, enabling it to beat estimates with the report.
  • The margin performance benefited from cost discipline and sustained pricing benefits.

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Daily Brief Financials: Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index, Bitcoin, HDFC Bank, Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, Industrivarden AB, Bitcoin Pro, Ohmyhome , Silver Spike Investment and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Details of Block Deal Pre-Disclosure Rule Disclosed: Cancellation Risk from 30% Price Correction
  • Crypto Crisp: Buy the Dip
  • Hdfc Bank Ltd (HDB) – Tuesday, Apr 9, 2024
  • Vietcombank (VCB VN Equity): Secondary Placement Offer, up to 2.4% Discount
  • Industrivärden: H1 Results, NAV Evolution and Discount
  • A Bad Break For Bulls… What’s Next?
  • OMH: Strong 1H 2024 Metrics Support Company Revenue Growth Guidance
  • Silver Spike Investment Corp (SSIC) – Tuesday, Apr 9, 2024


Details of Block Deal Pre-Disclosure Rule Disclosed: Cancellation Risk from 30% Price Correction

By Sanghyun Park

  • Today’s press release unveils details on new flow trading events in Korea’s local market from the second half of this year, highlighting two key points.
  • Firstly, the disclosure rule starts with block deals from August 23rd. Secondly, a 30% or greater stock price correction on disclosure day may cancel the transaction plan.
  • This highlights the need to consider cancellation risks in pre-disclosure positions and design setups with consideration for the potential for reverse flows as stock prices approach 30% corrections.

Crypto Crisp: Buy the Dip

By Mads Eberhardt

  • Before we dive into this Monday’s edition of Crypto Crisp, we want to announce a format change.
  • Starting today, the ‘Charting Crypto’ section will only feature the most intriguing charts we have discovered over the past week.
  • Instead of showcasing four to five recurring charts that may not always be interesting, we will focus solely on the most noteworthy ones.

Hdfc Bank Ltd (HDB) – Tuesday, Apr 9, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • HDFC Bank is the largest private sector bank in India known for its strong track record of compounding book value and EPS
  • The recent merger with Housing Development Finance Company initially received positive market reaction but has since caused a decline in HDFC Bank’s stock price
  • Despite the stock underperformance, the merger offers potential cross-selling opportunities and a bright future for HDFC Bank

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Vietcombank (VCB VN Equity): Secondary Placement Offer, up to 2.4% Discount

By Mohshin Aziz

  • Secondary placement taking place, ~29million share on offer via accelerated bookbuild, for total offer size of ~USD100 million 
  • Discount of 0-2.4% relative to market close 9 July, discount depends on demand
  • Free float will increase by 0.5% to 8.4%, which is low but typical for Vietnamese government linked (GLC) stocks 

Industrivärden: H1 Results, NAV Evolution and Discount

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • As of end of H1, NAV was SEK 156 billion (SEK 361/share). NAV increased by 4%, gains in portfolio compensated by leverage increase. 5-y total return of 78.6% (OMX30, 76.4%).
  • Industrivärden C shares are trading at a 4.8% discount to NAV (vs. 8.3% average for last 5-years). It seems risky to bet on a further discount reduction, rather a reversal.
  • My target NAV is SEK 176,893 million. My TP for the C shares of Industrivärden, assuming a 5% discount to NAV, is SEK 360.3 (4.6% upside).

A Bad Break For Bulls… What’s Next?

By Delphi Digital

  • BTC hits multi-month range lows amid heavy liquidations and bearish market structure.
  • Altcoins experience significant losses, with many sectors down 20%-50% in recent weeks.
  • ETH and SOL spot ETFs signal growing institutional interest despite current market struggles.

OMH: Strong 1H 2024 Metrics Support Company Revenue Growth Guidance

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • OMH expects 1H24 revenue increased >110% y/y.
  • OMH views its technology & data as competitive advantages & cites recently launched HomerAI & Property Mgmt.
  • unit as key factors behind expected growth.

Silver Spike Investment Corp (SSIC) – Tuesday, Apr 9, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • SSIC stock recommended by Dakota at $8.85, now up by $1.00 with $1.58 cash distributions
  • Recent corporate transaction with REFI expected to benefit SSIC stockholders
  • SSIC is a BDC founded by Wall Street veterans, with strong balance sheet, no debt, and management owning significant portion of shares

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Consumer: Aisin , Ryohin Keikaku, Hyundai Motor India , Hong Kong Television Network, Mercari , Tesla , Carmax Inc, elf Beauty Inc, Lands’ End Inc, Build A Bear Workshop and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Toyota Group Cross-Holding Structure Primer – Holdings, Unwind Progress, Buyback Policies, Etc
  • Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2024): Potential Adds/Deletes, Capping & Funding Changes
  • India Car Sales Slow: Can Hyundai Keep Its No. 2 Spot Amidst Fierce Competition?
  • HKTV (1137 HK)’s Low-Balled Buyback Gets The Nod
  • Mercari (4385) | Fintech and Gig Economy as Key Catalysts
  • Play the Hand You’re Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys
  • CarMax Inc.: Operational Efficiencies In Reconditioning & Logistics Expanding The Bottom-Line? – Major Drivers
  • elf Beauty Inc – STCB: 2H Signposts; Building for a Better Tomorrow; Reiterate Buy, $0.25 PT
  • LE: 2H Signposts; Proving Model Shifts Working; Reiterate Buy, $17 PT
  • BBW: Snapping the Store – Milan Edition – Looking at Expansion, Reiterate Buy


Toyota Group Cross-Holding Structure Primer – Holdings, Unwind Progress, Buyback Policies, Etc

By Travis Lundy

  • Last September in the release of its new Mid-Term Management Plan, Toyota Group member Aisin (7259 JP) announced a plan to cut cross-holdings to zero. JTEKT Corp (6473 JP) followed suit.
  • It started with a selldown of Denso Corp (6902 JP), then Toyota Industries (6201 JP), now Aisin. Last FY, Toyota Group cos reduced crossholdings by ¥870bn. This year will be more.
  • Attached below is a general breakdown of Toyota Group cross-holdings, discussion of cross-holding policies, and analysis of what is next, and what is not.

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2024): Potential Adds/Deletes, Capping & Funding Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the Nikkei 225 Index September rebalance ends in three weeks. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance used for the additions.
  • Depending on the changes, passive trackers will need to buy between 3-57x ADV (2.4%-24% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 3.7-8.4x ADV on the deletions.
  • Fast Retailing (9983 JP)‘s index weight is currently higher than 10% and that will result in capping in September. Passives will need to sell 6x ADV in the stock.

India Car Sales Slow: Can Hyundai Keep Its No. 2 Spot Amidst Fierce Competition?

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Hyundai Motor India (HMIL) saw a market share loss in India Passenger Vehicles sales reported for June 2024 and 1QFY2025, impacted by intensified competition in the SUV segment.
  • Mahindra & Mahindra, and Toyota Kirloskar India gained market share in 1QFY2025 led by upgraded model launches in the SUV segment, traditionally a strong category for HMIL.
  • HMIL’s declining market share, if not reversed soon, could challenge optimistic growth projections and valuation multiples for its upcoming IPO.

HKTV (1137 HK)’s Low-Balled Buyback Gets The Nod

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back in May, online shopping platform play Hong Kong Television Network (1137 HK) announced a buy-back of 11.25% of shares out, at $2.15/share, a mediocre 20.8% premium to undisturbed.
  • The thrust of the Offer was to lift co-founder Ricky Wong’s stake to 51.55% from 45.75%.  But that required independent shareholders approving a whitewash waiver not to make a MGO.
  • I didn’t expect shareholder pushback. And there wasn’t. Tendering closes on the 23rd July. Keep an eye on CCASS movements. Shares gained 4.7% yesterday prior to the EGM outcome. Mmm.

Mercari (4385) | Fintech and Gig Economy as Key Catalysts

By Mark Chadwick

  • Mercari’s US operations, responsible for major losses, saw a workforce reduction by 45%, potentially preceding a market exit to improve overall margins.
  • Fintech growth is strong, with Mercari issuing over 3 million credit cards, achieving a 67% YoY credit balance increase, despite current operational losses
  • Mercari Hallo, an on-demand work platform, has rapidly gained users and business partners, positioning it to capitalize on Japan’s growing gig economy.

Play the Hand You’re Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

By Joe Jasper

  • We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth
  • Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth’s outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.
  • Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend

CarMax Inc.: Operational Efficiencies In Reconditioning & Logistics Expanding The Bottom-Line? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • CarMax has reported its fiscal 2025 first quarter results, revealing a mixed financial scenario.
  • This analysis aims to objectively evaluate the performance by weighing the key positives and negatives reflected in the data and future company outlook.
  • Starting with the positives, CarMax noted several encouraging business trends, such as a stabilization in vehicle values and a decrease in average vehicle selling prices, which fell by approximately $700 per unit.

elf Beauty Inc – STCB: 2H Signposts; Building for a Better Tomorrow; Reiterate Buy, $0.25 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating.
  • $0.25 price target and projections for Starco Brands as we look at key trends for 2H24 and beyond.
  • We believe 2024, while somewhat frustrating from an investor standpoint (given the downward revenue guidance and pulling of EBITDA guidance after 1Q), will be seen as a positive over the longer term, as the company has made material steps forward for all of their brands, positioning Starco for significant top line growth and going forward, material operating leverage, which we believe will become increasingly self-evident in 2025 and beyond.

LE: 2H Signposts; Proving Model Shifts Working; Reiterate Buy, $17 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, $17 price target and projections for Lands’ End as we look at key trends for 2HFY24 and beyond.
  • We believe management’s focus on reducing discounting, material product newness and excitement, telling product “stories” focused on key differentiating features, and shifting the product mix to higher levels of licensing, has been a hit, and we believe FY24 will continue to demonstrate there remain material upgrades still to come, with the potential for further top andbottom line upside.
  • Further, with international top line growth nearing, digital marketplaces remaining a plus and the full positive margin impact of licensing still on tap, we believe there remain further catalysts going forward.

BBW: Snapping the Store – Milan Edition – Looking at Expansion, Reiterate Buy

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, $41 price target and projections after visiting franchised stores in Milan, Italy.
  • With the company ramping up penetration with commercial partners and international franchisees, we believe it will be increasingly important for investors to understand and appreciate what we believe are the impressive economics of the franchised Build-A-Bear business.
  • Our Milan visits reiterated both the ability to recreate the experiential aspect of the Build-A-Bear operating model with partners and what we believe can be the lucrative nature of the business.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: KRX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 5th): Hlb and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 5th): Hlb, Posco


KRX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 5th): Hlb, Posco

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX Stocks as of Jul 5th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD6.1bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Hlb (028300 KS), Posco (005490 KS).

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Daily Brief ESG: Faster Management Improvement Requires a Sense of Tension in Management and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Faster Management Improvement Requires a Sense of Tension in Management
  • Ontex – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics


Faster Management Improvement Requires a Sense of Tension in Management

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Now that the defensive wall of cross-shareholdings has been lowered, the strategies of activist investors are beginning to work, as companies are forced to listen to demands of their shareholders.
  • Many companies continued to be reappointed at shareholder meetings without fulfilling the role of management in maximizing shareholder interests and carrying out sustainable expansion.
  • For faster management improvement, further increasing the sense of tension in management requires the elimination of further cross-shareholdings and a change in the mindset of domestic investors, including individual investors.

Ontex – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Tanvi Arora

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Ontex’s ESG as “Strong”, in line with its Environmental and Governance scores, while the Social pillar is “Adequate”. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Strong”. 


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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Play the Hand You’re Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Play the Hand You’re Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys


Play the Hand You’re Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

By Joe Jasper

  • We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth
  • Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth’s outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.
  • Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: China Vanke and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , PT Pertamina (Persero), Sunny Optical Technology Group


Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , PT Pertamina (Persero), Sunny Optical Technology Group

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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