Daily Briefs

A lot of the talk around the news that Ito family scion Ito Junro had proposed to Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) an MBO was about thwarting Alimentation Couche-Tard.
Several mentioned that this bid – seemingly uncompetitive at the moment – would make ACT back down. I discussed the bid and its repercussions here.
Here I suggest an alternate solution which might get everyone what they want.

TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Div Index Rebalance Preview: 32% T/O; US$2.75bn Trade; HUGE Impact

The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF (00919 TW) tracks the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index and has an AUM of TWD 284bn (US$8.7bn).
We forecast 8 changes a side at the December rebalance with an estimated one-way turnover of around 15.8% and a round-trip trade of around US$2.75bn.
An equal weighted basket of potential inclusions has outperformed an equal weighted basket of potential deletions since beginning September with a pick-up in pace over the last 2-3 weeks.

TIP Taiwan Value High Dividend Index Rebalance: A Lot to Trade This Week

There are 15 changes for the TIP Taiwan Value High Dividend Index in November. The Yuanta Taiwan Value High Dividend ETF (00940 TT) has an AUM of US$5bn.
Estimated one-way turnover is 26% and there are 16 stocks with over 4 days of ADV left to trade. The rebalance commenced yesterday and will end on Friday.
An equal weighted basket of inclusions has outperformed an equal weighted basket of deletions since July. That could continue over the week as the ETF continues to rebalance their portfolio.

SF Holding (6936 HK): No Index Inclusion till Mid-2025; AH Premium Could Stay Wide

The S.F. Holding (002352 CH) H-shares are being offered at a price range of HK$32.3-36.3/share, a discount of 20.2%-29% to the A-shares. The max raise (including oversubscription) is US$912m.
Unlike Midea Group (300 HK), the S.F. Holding (002352 CH) H-shares will not get Fast Entry to any indices. Southbound Stock Connect inclusion will take place on 23 December.
With no index inclusion in the short-term, the H-shares discount to the A-shares should remain wide. The H-shares could become short sell eligible in February.

7&I (3382) Ito Family MBO – New Urgency for ACT

Days ago we got a dramatic headline about Ito family scion ITO Junro and his family company Ito Kogyo making a bid for Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP).
The stock popped, then fell. Details were not clear. Was the ¥9trln an EV number? A market cap? Was he serious? How would he get funding. Skepticism was rife.
Today we get more headlines from NHK. who says the family wants to raise ¥8trln to take 7&i private by end-Feb 2025.

HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Comes Knocking. Again.

By David Blennerhassett

HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), a Hong Kong broadband play, is never short on privatisation rumours. China Mobile (941 HK) is reportedly (again) holding talks with HKBN’s major shareholders.
China Mobile is a logical suitor. I highly doubt a non-PRC (government-affiliated) corporation would be permitted to take HKBN private.
Previous takeover rumours over the years came to nought. It may be different this time. HKBN was suspended this morning pursuant to the Takeovers Code.

SF Holdings A/H Listing – Lower End Looks Digestable

S.F. Holding (002352 CH), China’s largest express delivery company, is now looking to raise around US$800m in its H-share listing in Hong Kong.
SFH is the largest integrated express logistics service provider in China and the fourth largest in the world. It has been listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange since 2017.
We have covered the company and deal background in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Dec 2024): Dexus and Spark NZ with Double Deletions

With the review period nearly complete, there could be one change for the S&P/ASX 50 Index and one change for the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in December.
Both deletes are also deletions from a global index next week and there could be short-term buying/covering opportunities on a drop in the stock price.
There has been a buildup of cumulative excess volume in all stocks over the last few months. There has been no increase in positioning in CAR Group (CAR AU) recently.

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for December

Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 6 December.
With no increase in the number of index constituents this calendar year, there could be inclusions in December. The process of getting to 100 index constituents could drag into 2026.
Short interest is especially large in Sinotruk, Giant Biogene, Kuaishou Technology, ASMPT and JD Logistics and inclusion could set off some short covering.

KDC REIT Placement – Accretive Acquisitions Should Garner Strong Support

By Clarence Chu

Keppel DC REIT (KDCREIT SP) is looking to raise S$600m (US$450m) from a primary placement. The proceeds will be used to acquire interest in two data centers in Singapore.
The deal will be a large one to digest, accounting for 47 days of the stock’s three month ADV. That said, the acquisitions appear to be accretive to bottomline.
In this note, we’ll run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

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Nov 20

Daily Brief Utilities: Adani Green Energy, NTPC Green Energy Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
NTPC Green IPO – Grand Plans to Grow Its Portfolio, but Appears Expensive

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Tanvi Arora

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Adani Green Energy, Yankuang Energy
In the US, treasuries edged higher yesterday, with yields declining 2-4 bps across the curve on possible dip buying and despite a large slate of corporate bond issuances.
The yield on the 2Y UST fell 3 bps to 4.28%, while the 10Y declined 3 bps to 4.41%. Equities rebounded from last week’s losses, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively.

NTPC Green IPO – Grand Plans to Grow Its Portfolio, but Appears Expensive

By Clarence Chu

NTPC Green Energy Ltd (2214556D IN) is looking to raise around US$1.2bn in its upcoming India IPO.
NTPC Green Energy Limited (NGEL) is a renewable energy public sector enterprise and a wholly owned subsidiary of NTPC Limited, a Maharatna central public sector enterprise (PSU).
In an earlier note, we looked at the firm’s past performance. In this note, we look at its RHP updates, undertake a peer comparison and discuss our thoughts on valuation.

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Nov 20

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Piedmont Lithium, Iron Ore, Compass Minerals International, Inc, Hellenic Petroleum Sa, Nanoco Group PLC, Endurance Gold, TMC the metals co and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

Sayona (SYA AU)/Piedmont (PLL AU)’s Merger Of Equals
IO Weekly Technicals Review [2024/46]: IO to Rise on Seasonality
Inside the Buyout Buzz: Why Compass Minerals is Turning Heads on Wall Street!
HELLENiQ ENERGY – Margins troughed in Q3, expect Q4 improvement
Nanoco Group – Board states case for voting against resolutions
EDG: Gap Filling Continues Successfully at Crown
The Metals Company, Inc. – Setting Application Submission Date and Raising Capital to Get There

Sayona (SYA AU)/Piedmont (PLL AU)’s Merger Of Equals

By David Blennerhassett

North American hard-rock lithium plays Piedmont Lithium (PLL AU) and Sayona Mining (SYA AU) are to combine in all-stock merger with a ~50%/50% ownership split on a fully diluted basis.
Sayona will be the ultimate/surviving parent, via issuing 5.27 Sayona ordinary shares for each Piedmont share. Various equity raisings will also take place, before and after the merger.
EGMs for both Sayona and Piedmont shareholders are expected to be held in 1H25, with expected completion also in the 1H25.

IO Weekly Technicals Review [2024/46]: IO to Rise on Seasonality

By Suhas Reddy

SGX Iron Ore Futures dropped to USD 96.71/ton, down USD 5.49/ton, hitting a low of USD 96.30/ton amid pressure from declining housing prices and industrial output in China.
Chinese portside inventories increased by 120k tons WoW to 148.51m tons last week, while average daily port discharge volumes rose by 131k tons WoW to 3.18m tons.
Despite weak economic data from China, SGX Iron Ore Futures may rebound in November-December as pre-Lunar New Year restocking boosts steel demand.

Inside the Buyout Buzz: Why Compass Minerals is Turning Heads on Wall Street!

Compass Minerals Inc. recently reported its second-quarter fiscal 2024 results.
The quarter demonstrated significant challenges, primarily attributable to unseasonably mild winter weather conditions across North America.
The Salt segment, a core part of the company’s operations, was notably affected by these conditions, leading to a substantial decrease in deicing salt sales volumes, ultimately reflecting a 14% decline in segment revenue and a 7% drop in adjusted EBITDA compared to the previous year.

HELLENiQ ENERGY – Margins troughed in Q3, expect Q4 improvement

By Edison Investment Research

HELLENiQ ENERGY’s Q324 results were held back by a weak refining environment, as previously guided by the company, but showed an impressive operational performance. The company noted that the Q424 refining margin is likely to be $2/bbl to $3/bbl above the average for Q3. Q3 refining sales volumes of 4.163m tonnes were up 8% y-o-y, adjusted EBITDA of €183m was down 54% y o y and adjusted net income of €49m was down 77% y-o-y. HELLENiQ’s Q324 benchmark refining margin declined to $3.6/bbl, from $5.5/bbl in Q224, as anticipated by the company at the Q2 results, and at its lowest level since 2021. HELLENiQ announced a €0.2 per share dividend to be paid in January 2025, implying an interim yield of c 3.0%. Management was more confident on the Q424 outlook, expecting a better market and potentially some progress on its DEPA and ELPEDISON business associations that might continue the streamlining of the group.

Nanoco Group – Board states case for voting against resolutions

By Edison Investment Research

Nanoco has issued a circular recommending that shareholders vote against both resolutions being proposed by Milkwood in its requisition for a general meeting (scheduled for 11:30am on 13 December 2024). We summarise the board’s key arguments below.

EDG: Gap Filling Continues Successfully at Crown

By Atrium Research

What you need to know: • EDG announced assay results for five drill holes as part of its 10,000m 2024 drill program; it has completed 26 holes (7,303m) to date.
• Today’s results continued to confirm strong mineralization in the untested gaps between Eagle & Imperial (Crown Zone), intersecting bonanza grade.
• Two of five holes intersected significant intercepts (147.5 g/t Au over 1.0m and 7.61 g/t Au over 5.7m).

The Metals Company, Inc. – Setting Application Submission Date and Raising Capital to Get There

3Q24 update. TMC’s income statement expenses rose from $12.5 million in 3Q23 to $20.0 million in 3Q24 on higher legal and consulting costs, and share-based compensation accounting.
However, quarterly cash use slowed from $12.5 million in the year-ago period to $5.7 million and management reaffirmed its intention to reduce cash use to less than $5 million/quarter once the ISA exploitation application is submitted for review.
Submission date set. TMC initially intended to submit its NORI- D application to the ISA before the end of 2024 or before the first ISA meeting in 2025 (scheduled for March).

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Nov 20

Daily Brief Industrials: S.F. Holding, Integrated Design & Engineering Holdings, Oswal Pumps, AST SpaceMobile Inc, Japan Elevator Service Holding, Intuitive Machines and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

SF Holdings A/H Listing – Lower End Looks Digestable
Integrated Design & Engineering (9161 JP): Tokio Marine (8766 JP) Tender Offer at JPY6,500
I D & E Holdings (9161 JP) Gets a TOB Offer from Tokio Marine at +63% (¥6,500) – Probably Done
SF Holding H Share Listing (6936 HK): Valuation Insights
Oswal Pumps Pre-IPO – Revenue Surge Driven by Growing Demand in Solar Projects
Pre-IPO S.F. Holding (6936 HK) – Thoughts on Valuation and the Outlook
Is AST SpaceMobile Losing Its Shine? Reddit’s Darling Faces Tough Questions After Losses! – Major Drivers
Japan Elevator Service Holdings (6544 JP) – Demonstrating High-Quality Characteristics
Intuitive Machines’ Lunar Empire Takes Shape: Record Revenues and NASA Milestones! – Major Drivers
Intuitive Machines’ Lunar Empire Takes Shape: Record Revenues and NASA Milestones! – Major Drivers

SF Holdings A/H Listing – Lower End Looks Digestable

S.F. Holding (002352 CH), China’s largest express delivery company, is now looking to raise around US$800m in its H-share listing in Hong Kong.
SFH is the largest integrated express logistics service provider in China and the fourth largest in the world. It has been listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange since 2017.
We have covered the company and deal background in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

Integrated Design & Engineering (9161 JP): Tokio Marine (8766 JP) Tender Offer at JPY6,500

Integrated Design & Engineering Holdings (9161 JP) has recommended Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP)’s tender offer at JPY6,500 per share, a 63.3% premium to the last close.
The offer is attractive as it represents an all-time high, above NAV (including latent real estate gains) and above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range.
Despite the high required minority acceptance rate, an attractive offer facilitates deal completion. The tender runs from 20 November to 15 January 2025 (35 business days).

I D & E Holdings (9161 JP) Gets a TOB Offer from Tokio Marine at +63% (¥6,500) – Probably Done

In 2023, Integrated Design & Engineering Holdings (9161 JP) was created as a technical listing, succeeding Nippon Koei (1954 JP). It has been listed for decades.
On Tuesday 19 November, Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP) announced an agreed/supported deal to buy out Integrated Design & Engineering Holdings (9161 JP). The register is open. Should be easy.
It’s a nice high price for a boring stock, but it is cheap. They are NOT overpaying, but I don’t see who would want to run interference on this.

SF Holding H Share Listing (6936 HK): Valuation Insights

S.F. Holding (002352 CH) has launched its H Share listing at HK$32.30-36.30 per share. Pricing will be on 25 November, and the listing on 27 November.
We previously discussed the listing in SF Holding H Share Listing: Updates Point to Improving Fundamentals and SF Holding H Share Listing: AH Discount Views.
Our valuation analysis suggests that the H Share listing range is attractive. We would participate in the listing.

Oswal Pumps Pre-IPO – Revenue Surge Driven by Growing Demand in Solar Projects

By Rosita Fernandes

Oswal Pumps (1019841D IN) (OPL), established in 2003, specializes in the manufacturing of solar-powered and conventional pumps, electric motors, and related components for agricultural, residential, and industrial applications.
The company has established itself as a leading player in the solar pump market, benefiting from government initiatives such as the PM Kusum scheme
OPL aims to use its IPO proceeds to fund its expansion plans, including increasing manufacturing capacity and diversifying its product offerings.

Pre-IPO S.F. Holding (6936 HK) – Thoughts on Valuation and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

One important reason S.F. chose to go public on Hong Kong stock market is due to financial pressure, which mainly comes from its heavy asset development model and internationalization strategy.
Considering the discount of the H-share price versus the A-share price, if the IPO pricing is at the lower limit of the range, then the safety margin would be higher.
In the short term, S.F. is better than JD Logistics, so its valuation should be higher than JD Logistics and industry average. Future valuation expansion depends on international business performance.

Is AST SpaceMobile Losing Its Shine? Reddit’s Darling Faces Tough Questions After Losses! – Major Drivers

AST SpaceMobile recently reported a challenging Q3, with widened losses overshadowing its operational progress.
The company, which is transitioning from research and development (R&D) to commercial operations, highlighted key advancements such as the successful launch and activation of five Block 1 BlueBird satellites.
These satellites are integral to AST SpaceMobile’s mission of creating a space-based cellular broadband network that directly connects with mobile phones without modification, addressing global connectivity gaps.

Japan Elevator Service Holdings (6544 JP) – Demonstrating High-Quality Characteristics

By Astris Advisory Japan

Ongoing growth and margin expansion – The company continues to display positive characteristics of a high-quality franchise business with growth opportunities, with Q1-2 FY3/25 results showing sustained double-digit sales (+17.0% YoY) and OP growth (+30.6% YoY).
Maintenance contracts grew 13.8% YoY organically, and Modernization units remain on a positive trajectory with strong underlying demand given the company’s competitive advantage as an independent provider.
The company has maintained FY3/25 guidance; we believe the earnings outlook for H2 FY3/25 remains positive given the increasing utilization at the JIK (JES Innovation Center Kansai) and geographic reach, and ongoing productivity enhancement of its engineers resulting in operating leverage.

Intuitive Machines’ Lunar Empire Takes Shape: Record Revenues and NASA Milestones! – Major Drivers

Intuitive Machines presented a positive third-quarter 2024 performance with considerable revenue growth and strategic achievements.
The company reported revenue of $58.5 million, marking more than a fourfold increase compared to the same quarter last year.
This increase was driven by their core service pillars of delivery, data transmission, and infrastructure as services, coupled with key contract awards such as the Near Space Network Services (NSNS), valued up to $4.82 billion over a decade.

Intuitive Machines’ Lunar Empire Takes Shape: Record Revenues and NASA Milestones! – Major Drivers

Intuitive Machines presented a positive third-quarter 2024 performance with considerable revenue growth and strategic achievements.
The company reported revenue of $58.5 million, marking more than a fourfold increase compared to the same quarter last year.
This increase was driven by their core service pillars of delivery, data transmission, and infrastructure as services, coupled with key contract awards such as the Near Space Network Services (NSNS), valued up to $4.82 billion over a decade.

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Nov 20

Daily Brief Consumer: Seven & I Holdings, ASICS Corp, XPeng , Trip.com Group , EFCI Ltd, Tesla , The Walt Disney Co, CJ Cheiljedang, Domino’s Pizza, Dream International and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

7&I (3382) Ito Family MBO – New Urgency for ACT
Asics (7936) | Upgraded Targets on Fashion Pivot
Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Dec 24: Large Flow Expectations Although No Index Changes Expected
Trip.com (9961.HK, TCOM): 3Q24, Still Healthy, But Stock Price Exceeded Our Last Target
The Beat Ideas: EFC(I) Limited – The Indian Wework!
Buy the Pullback Again; S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000 Testing Confluence of Support
Disney’s Secret Weapons: How Streaming
CJ Cheiljedang: Considering a Potential Sale of Its Bio Business
Warren Buffett’s Domino’s Pizza Deal: The Possible Strategy Behind The Recent $550 Million Investment! – Major Drivers
Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – November 2024

7&I (3382) Ito Family MBO – New Urgency for ACT

Days ago we got a dramatic headline about Ito family scion ITO Junro and his family company Ito Kogyo making a bid for Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP).
The stock popped, then fell. Details were not clear. Was the ¥9trln an EV number? A market cap? Was he serious? How would he get funding. Skepticism was rife.
Today we get more headlines from NHK. who says the family wants to raise ¥8trln to take 7&i private by end-Feb 2025.

Asics (7936) | Upgraded Targets on Fashion Pivot

By Mark Chadwick

ASICS has demonstrated exceptional brand rejuvenation and profitability improvements, with an ambitious 2026 plan that capitalizes on high-growth lifestyle categories
However, the pivot toward fashion and luxury markets introduces heightened execution risk.
While the upgraded MTP targets are commendable, much of the good news appears to be priced in.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Dec 24: Large Flow Expectations Although No Index Changes Expected

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
The official index changes and indicative weights for the December 2024 index rebal event will be announced later this week on Friday 22nd November 2024.
In this insight, we take a look at our updated flow expectations.

Trip.com (9961.HK, TCOM): 3Q24, Still Healthy, But Stock Price Exceeded Our Last Target

By Ming Lu

The stock has risen by 38% since our last buy rate.
The 3Q24 results are still healthy – both growth rate and operating margin.
We set a downside of 19% for the end of 2025.

The Beat Ideas: EFC(I) Limited – The Indian Wework!

By Sudarshan Bhandari

EFCI Ltd (EFCIL IN) is one of few companies in the Flex Space Operator Business present in the entire value chain providing an unbeatable edge in Cost competitiveness.
Management target is to double revenue in FY25 capitalising on sector tailwinds driving exponential growth in all business verticals.
Completed Backward Integration through manufacturing furniture which will help increase margins as furniture comprise 40-50% of total fitout cost.

Buy the Pullback Again; S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000 Testing Confluence of Support

By Joe Jasper

Our outlook remains bullish following the S&P 500’s multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside healthy market dynamics which have continued to improve.
Two weeks ago, our election day report (11/5/24) was titled “Buy the Pullback,” and with the SPX/QQQ/IWM pulling back to their 20-day MAs, it’s time to buy the pullback again.
We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and early 2025, and we expect support at the 20-day MAs on the aforementioned indexes (though support at 50-day MAs is possible).

Disney’s Secret Weapons: How Streaming

The Walt Disney Company’s recent fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 financial results provided a comprehensive overview of both the progress and challenges faced by the company.
CEO Bob Iger highlighted the company’s strategic positioning for growth, emphasizing their momentum as a result of specific strategies across various business segments.
However, the commentary also reveals nuances in their operational dynamics and future outlook.

CJ Cheiljedang: Considering a Potential Sale of Its Bio Business

By Douglas Kim

CJ Cheiljedang announced that it is considering on potentially selling its bio business for about 5-6 trillion won which could be more than its market cap.
CJ Cheiljedang’s bio business is expected to have more than 4 trillion won in sales and about 700 billion won in EBITDA in 2024.
We are positive on the company’s efforts to sell its Bio Business and reinvest it in its food business.

Warren Buffett’s Domino’s Pizza Deal: The Possible Strategy Behind The Recent $550 Million Investment! – Major Drivers

The recent earnings call for Domino’s Pizza highlighted several key aspects of its financial performance, strategic initiatives, and market dynamics, revealing both promising areas and challenges.
The company’s Hungry for MORE strategy appears to be yielding positive results domestically, but international markets face significant hurdles.
Domestically, Domino’s Pizza has successfully leveraged its value-focused Hungry for MORE strategy.

Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – November 2024

By Sameer Taneja

We compile our selection of small and mid-cap names with our desired characteristics of high dividend yields, value, and margin of safety.
Our top picks are Perfect Medical Health (1830 HK), The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM), Taste Gourmet (8371 HK), Uchi Technologies (UCHI MK), and Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM).
We provide updates on the Q3 results for the Philippines picks and our management meeting on our recent trip to Hong Kong.

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Nov 20

Daily Brief Health Care: Santen Pharmaceutical, Cocrystal Pharma , Cybin , D.Western Therapeutics Institute Inc., Abeona Therapeutics , Pharmaessentia Corp, Reviva Pharmaceuticals Holdi, LogicMark and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

Santen Pharmaceutical (4536 JP): Subdued H1 Performance; FY25 Guidance Reiterated; Robust Pipeline
COCP: Multiple Upcoming Catalysts
Cybin, Inc. – CYB003 Demonstrates Exceptional Durable Treatment Benefits for Depression
D. Western Therapeutics Institute (4576 JP) – News Flash – November 19, 2024
ABEO: FDA Accepts BLA Re-Submission for Pz-cel PDUFA Date of April 29
Pharmaessentia Corp (6446 TT): Third Consecutive Quarters for Operating Profit; Pipeline Raises Hope
RVPH: Year-End OLE Update
LGMK: New Freedom Alert Mini & Freedom Alert Max Expand Product Suite

Santen Pharmaceutical (4536 JP): Subdued H1 Performance; FY25 Guidance Reiterated; Robust Pipeline

By Tina Banerjee

Santen Pharmaceutical (4536 JP) witnessed flat revenues while core operating profit and net profit declined in H1FY25. Overseas business grew 6% YoY and remained the main driver.
Santen reiterated FY25 guidance as overseas markets are performing well, reviewed impact of generics in Japan, and continued progress in company-wide cost optimizations.
Santen signed collaboration agreement for ARVN001 suprachoroidal injectable suspension, a treatment for uveitic macular oedema, for exclusive commercialization rights in China, excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan.

COCP: Multiple Upcoming Catalysts

On November 13, 2024, Cocrystal Pharma, Inc. (COCP) announced financial results for the third quarter of 2024 and provided a business update.
Over the next few months, we anticipate multiple important catalysts for the company, including topline results from the Phase 2a trial of CC-42344 before the end of 2024, filing of an Investigational New Drug (IND) application in 2025 to conduct the next study of CC-42344 in the U.S., and topline results for the multiple-ascending dose (SAD) portion of the Phase 1 trial of CDI-988 in late 2024 or early 2025.
The company exited the third quarter of 2024 with unrestricted cash of approximately $13.0 million, which is enough to fund operations for at least the next 12 months.

Cybin, Inc. – CYB003 Demonstrates Exceptional Durable Treatment Benefits for Depression

CYB003’s Phase 2 data demonstrate impressive long-term safety and efficacy data.
Cybin’s release of its highly anticipated 12-month safety and efficacy data for CYB003, its proprietary deuterated psilocin program for the potential adjunctive treatment of major depressive disorder, did not disappoint.
The outcomes demonstrated durable and robust efficacy from its Phase 2 study of CYB003.

D. Western Therapeutics Institute (4576 JP) – News Flash – November 19, 2024

By Sessa Investment Research

DWTI announced topline results from its Phase 2B clinical trial of its H-1337 Ophthalmic Solution, for the treatment of elevated intraocular pressure in patients with primary open-angle glaucoma or ocular hypertension.
This study was a double-masked, active- controlled, dose-response study in 201 subjects with primary open-angle glaucoma or ocular hypertension, where subjects were dosed for 28 days during the period from August 2023 – August 2024.
The study was designed to evaluate the ocular safety and hypotensive efficacy of three doses of multi-kinase inhibitor H-1337 Ophthalmic Solution: 0.6% twice-daily, 1.0% twice daily, and 1.0% once-daily.

ABEO: FDA Accepts BLA Re-Submission for Pz-cel PDUFA Date of April 29

On November 14, 2024, Abeona Therapeutics, Inc. (ABEO) announced financial results for the third quarter of 2024 and provided a business update.
The company recently announced that the U.S. FDA has accepted the re-submission of the Biologics License Application (BLA) for pz-cel and set a PDUFA target action date of April 29, 2025.
The acceptance of the BLA by the FDA indicates that the resubmission includes all the necessary information that was found to be deficient in the original BLA filing and we are confident that the company has addressed all the issues identified in the CRL and the pre-license inspection.

Pharmaessentia Corp (6446 TT): Third Consecutive Quarters for Operating Profit; Pipeline Raises Hope

By Tina Banerjee

Pharmaessentia Corp (6446 TT) reported 66% QoQ increase in operating profit in 3Q24. Scale expansion coupled with tight control over expenses led to such strong performance.
3Q24 marks the six consecutive quarters of sequential revenue increase. Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 already exceeded full-year 2023 revenue.
Geography expansion of the sole marketed drug Besremi, indication expansion, and pipeline progress will remain the main growth engines. Pharmaessentia is eyeing on Besremi’s indication expansion in US by 2026.

RVPH: Year-End OLE Update

Reviva is a research and development pharmaceutical company with two portfolio compounds targeting nine indications.
The candidates address multiple related mental disorders, rare diseases & other categories of un met need.
Reviva’s lead indication in schizophrenia with brilaroxazine (RP5063) completed its 1st Phase III trial & expects to begin its 2nd in 2025.

LGMK: New Freedom Alert Mini & Freedom Alert Max Expand Product Suite

As LGMK creates and launches new products, the goal is to expand the target addressable market beyond its traditional target demo and concurrently broaden its penetration within the traditional market with new hardware such as the Freedom Alert Mini and Max and new features such as advanced fall detection and solutions leveraging AI/ML technologies, among other features.
The company also expects opportunities to license its technology to third parties and thereby boost recurring high-margin revenue, and continues to expands its patent position to support potential licensing opportunities and protect its IP.

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Nov 20

Daily Brief Financials: Keppel DC REIT, PICC Property & Casualty H, Federal Bank, DigiCo REIT, Pjt Partners and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

KDC REIT Placement – Accretive Acquisitions Should Garner Strong Support
Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Dec 24: Time for a LONG-SHORT Trade
EQD | Nifty Banks – Single Stock Options and Relative Value Opportunities
DigiCo REIT – The Negatives – Not All Engines Are Firing
Pjt Partners Inc. (PTJ) – Monday, Aug 19, 2024

KDC REIT Placement – Accretive Acquisitions Should Garner Strong Support

By Clarence Chu

Keppel DC REIT (KDCREIT SP) is looking to raise S$600m (US$450m) from a primary placement. The proceeds will be used to acquire interest in two data centers in Singapore.
The deal will be a large one to digest, accounting for 47 days of the stock’s three month ADV. That said, the acquisitions appear to be accretive to bottomline.
In this note, we’ll run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Dec 24: Time for a LONG-SHORT Trade

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
The official index changes will be confirmed later this week on Friday 22nd November 2024.
In this insight, we take a look at our final index change expectations and updated flow estimates for the upcoming index rebal event.

EQD | Nifty Banks – Single Stock Options and Relative Value Opportunities

By Gaudenz Schneider

The NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) and the NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX EQUITY) reached all-time highs on 26 September 2024 but have since declined.
Most stocks in the Bank Index have fallen below their 200 and 50 day moving average,. Volatilities have gone up, but trade cheap when compared to historical levels.
Opportunities present themselves either in stocks that stayed resilient during the downturn (Federal Bank (FB IN)),or fell and gained in implied volatility. A long-short strategy might also be considered.

DigiCo REIT – The Negatives – Not All Engines Are Firing

DigiCo REIT (DIGICO AU) aims to raise over US$1bn in its Australian IPO.
DigiCo REIT (DREIT) aims to be a diversified owner, operator and developer of data centres, with a global portfolio and broad investment mandate across stabilised, value-add and development opportunities
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Pjt Partners Inc. (PTJ) – Monday, Aug 19, 2024

By Value Investors Club

PJT Partners is a global investment bank with strong strategic and restructuring advisory services
The company’s partnership structure results in a tax drag on free cash flow, leading to an expensive valuation compared to peers
Despite lower growth than expected, PJT shares trade at high multiples, making a short position recommended due to estimated overvaluation of over 40% compared to normalized earnings

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

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Nov 20

Daily Brief Industrials: S.F. Holding, Integrated Design & Engineering Holdings, Oswal Pumps, AST SpaceMobile Inc, Japan Elevator Service Holding, Intuitive Machines and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

SF Holdings A/H Listing – Lower End Looks Digestable
Integrated Design & Engineering (9161 JP): Tokio Marine (8766 JP) Tender Offer at JPY6,500
I D & E Holdings (9161 JP) Gets a TOB Offer from Tokio Marine at +63% (¥6,500) – Probably Done
SF Holding H Share Listing (6936 HK): Valuation Insights
Oswal Pumps Pre-IPO – Revenue Surge Driven by Growing Demand in Solar Projects
Pre-IPO S.F. Holding (6936 HK) – Thoughts on Valuation and the Outlook
Is AST SpaceMobile Losing Its Shine? Reddit’s Darling Faces Tough Questions After Losses! – Major Drivers
Japan Elevator Service Holdings (6544 JP) – Demonstrating High-Quality Characteristics
Intuitive Machines’ Lunar Empire Takes Shape: Record Revenues and NASA Milestones! – Major Drivers
Intuitive Machines’ Lunar Empire Takes Shape: Record Revenues and NASA Milestones! – Major Drivers

SF Holdings A/H Listing – Lower End Looks Digestable

S.F. Holding (002352 CH), China’s largest express delivery company, is now looking to raise around US$800m in its H-share listing in Hong Kong.
SFH is the largest integrated express logistics service provider in China and the fourth largest in the world. It has been listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange since 2017.
We have covered the company and deal background in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

Integrated Design & Engineering (9161 JP): Tokio Marine (8766 JP) Tender Offer at JPY6,500

Integrated Design & Engineering Holdings (9161 JP) has recommended Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP)’s tender offer at JPY6,500 per share, a 63.3% premium to the last close.
The offer is attractive as it represents an all-time high, above NAV (including latent real estate gains) and above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range.
Despite the high required minority acceptance rate, an attractive offer facilitates deal completion. The tender runs from 20 November to 15 January 2025 (35 business days).

I D & E Holdings (9161 JP) Gets a TOB Offer from Tokio Marine at +63% (¥6,500) – Probably Done

In 2023, Integrated Design & Engineering Holdings (9161 JP) was created as a technical listing, succeeding Nippon Koei (1954 JP). It has been listed for decades.
On Tuesday 19 November, Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP) announced an agreed/supported deal to buy out Integrated Design & Engineering Holdings (9161 JP). The register is open. Should be easy.
It’s a nice high price for a boring stock, but it is cheap. They are NOT overpaying, but I don’t see who would want to run interference on this.

SF Holding H Share Listing (6936 HK): Valuation Insights

S.F. Holding (002352 CH) has launched its H Share listing at HK$32.30-36.30 per share. Pricing will be on 25 November, and the listing on 27 November.
We previously discussed the listing in SF Holding H Share Listing: Updates Point to Improving Fundamentals and SF Holding H Share Listing: AH Discount Views.
Our valuation analysis suggests that the H Share listing range is attractive. We would participate in the listing.

Oswal Pumps Pre-IPO – Revenue Surge Driven by Growing Demand in Solar Projects

By Rosita Fernandes

Oswal Pumps (1019841D IN) (OPL), established in 2003, specializes in the manufacturing of solar-powered and conventional pumps, electric motors, and related components for agricultural, residential, and industrial applications.
The company has established itself as a leading player in the solar pump market, benefiting from government initiatives such as the PM Kusum scheme
OPL aims to use its IPO proceeds to fund its expansion plans, including increasing manufacturing capacity and diversifying its product offerings.

Pre-IPO S.F. Holding (6936 HK) – Thoughts on Valuation and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

One important reason S.F. chose to go public on Hong Kong stock market is due to financial pressure, which mainly comes from its heavy asset development model and internationalization strategy.
Considering the discount of the H-share price versus the A-share price, if the IPO pricing is at the lower limit of the range, then the safety margin would be higher.
In the short term, S.F. is better than JD Logistics, so its valuation should be higher than JD Logistics and industry average. Future valuation expansion depends on international business performance.

Is AST SpaceMobile Losing Its Shine? Reddit’s Darling Faces Tough Questions After Losses! – Major Drivers

AST SpaceMobile recently reported a challenging Q3, with widened losses overshadowing its operational progress.
The company, which is transitioning from research and development (R&D) to commercial operations, highlighted key advancements such as the successful launch and activation of five Block 1 BlueBird satellites.
These satellites are integral to AST SpaceMobile’s mission of creating a space-based cellular broadband network that directly connects with mobile phones without modification, addressing global connectivity gaps.

Japan Elevator Service Holdings (6544 JP) – Demonstrating High-Quality Characteristics

By Astris Advisory Japan

Ongoing growth and margin expansion – The company continues to display positive characteristics of a high-quality franchise business with growth opportunities, with Q1-2 FY3/25 results showing sustained double-digit sales (+17.0% YoY) and OP growth (+30.6% YoY).
Maintenance contracts grew 13.8% YoY organically, and Modernization units remain on a positive trajectory with strong underlying demand given the company’s competitive advantage as an independent provider.
The company has maintained FY3/25 guidance; we believe the earnings outlook for H2 FY3/25 remains positive given the increasing utilization at the JIK (JES Innovation Center Kansai) and geographic reach, and ongoing productivity enhancement of its engineers resulting in operating leverage.

Intuitive Machines’ Lunar Empire Takes Shape: Record Revenues and NASA Milestones! – Major Drivers

Intuitive Machines presented a positive third-quarter 2024 performance with considerable revenue growth and strategic achievements.
The company reported revenue of $58.5 million, marking more than a fourfold increase compared to the same quarter last year.
This increase was driven by their core service pillars of delivery, data transmission, and infrastructure as services, coupled with key contract awards such as the Near Space Network Services (NSNS), valued up to $4.82 billion over a decade.

Intuitive Machines’ Lunar Empire Takes Shape: Record Revenues and NASA Milestones! – Major Drivers

Intuitive Machines presented a positive third-quarter 2024 performance with considerable revenue growth and strategic achievements.
The company reported revenue of $58.5 million, marking more than a fourfold increase compared to the same quarter last year.
This increase was driven by their core service pillars of delivery, data transmission, and infrastructure as services, coupled with key contract awards such as the Near Space Network Services (NSNS), valued up to $4.82 billion over a decade.

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Nov 20

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: HKBN Ltd, CAR Group , Kuaishou Technology, Samsung Electronics, Microstrategy Inc Cl A, Nagarro SE, Spotify, NVIDIA Corp, SOITEC, Solid State PLC and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Comes Knocking. Again.
S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Dec 2024): Dexus and Spark NZ with Double Deletions
Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for December
A Step Closer to Samsung Life Insurance Finally Selling Its Shares in Samsung Electronics?
Crypto Crisp: MicroStrategy Continues Its Buying Spree
Nagarro SE: Potential Takeover Amidst Financial Growth
How Spotify Turned Critical Mass Into Massive Profits—Breaking Down the Numbers! – Major Drivers
NVIDIA’s AI Revolution Stalls? What Blackwell’s Overheating Issues Reveal!
Soitec (SOI) – Tuesday, Aug 20, 2024
Solid State – Defence contract delay affects expectations

HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Comes Knocking. Again.

By David Blennerhassett

HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), a Hong Kong broadband play, is never short on privatisation rumours. China Mobile (941 HK) is reportedly (again) holding talks with HKBN’s major shareholders.
China Mobile is a logical suitor. I highly doubt a non-PRC (government-affiliated) corporation would be permitted to take HKBN private.
Previous takeover rumours over the years came to nought. It may be different this time. HKBN was suspended this morning pursuant to the Takeovers Code.

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Dec 2024): Dexus and Spark NZ with Double Deletions

With the review period nearly complete, there could be one change for the S&P/ASX 50 Index and one change for the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in December.
Both deletes are also deletions from a global index next week and there could be short-term buying/covering opportunities on a drop in the stock price.
There has been a buildup of cumulative excess volume in all stocks over the last few months. There has been no increase in positioning in CAR Group (CAR AU) recently.

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for December

Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 6 December.
With no increase in the number of index constituents this calendar year, there could be inclusions in December. The process of getting to 100 index constituents could drag into 2026.
Short interest is especially large in Sinotruk, Giant Biogene, Kuaishou Technology, ASMPT and JD Logistics and inclusion could set off some short covering.

A Step Closer to Samsung Life Insurance Finally Selling Its Shares in Samsung Electronics?

By Douglas Kim

Amid Samsung Electronics announcing a huge buyback of 10 trillion won, one of the issues that has resurfaced is the potential sale of Samsung Electronics by Samsung Life Insurance.
The total amount of Samsung Electronics that could be sold by Samsung Life Insurance and Samsung F&M Insurance is 25.6 trillion won (at current prices).
We remain Positive on Samsung Electronics. The 10 trillion won buyback program is a positive sign on the company’s willingness to provide higher shareholder returns.

Crypto Crisp: MicroStrategy Continues Its Buying Spree

By Mads Eberhardt

It has been a relatively quiet week.
Bitcoin has outperformed much of the market, resulting in an increase in its dominance, as highlighted in Thursday’s Crypto Moves #52.
This was most likely driven by the intense buying pressure from MicroStrategy over the past week.

Nagarro SE: Potential Takeover Amidst Financial Growth

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Nagarro SE (NA9 GR) is in discussions for a potential delisting and takeover, with private equity firm Warburg Pincus reportedly considering a buyout.
Strong Financial Growth: Q3 2024 revenue rose by 3.7% to €242.9M, with a 5.6% constant currency growth, adjusted EBITDA improving to €34.6M (14.3% of revenue).
Nagarro trades at a P/E ratio below peers, suggesting undervaluation despite financial resilience, strong liquid assets, and 14% stock price growth over the last eight trading days.

How Spotify Turned Critical Mass Into Massive Profits—Breaking Down the Numbers! – Major Drivers

Spotify Technology S.A. delivered a mixed set of results for the third quarter of 2024, showcasing both achievements and continued challenges as the company navigates through its business strategy.
On one hand, it marked a milestone by delivering strong growth metrics in both subscribers (net addition of 6 million to reach a total of 252 million) and monthly active users (MAU, rising by 14 million to 640 million).
These metrics exceeded Spotify’s guidance and reflect its dual focus on product innovation and marketing efficiency.

NVIDIA’s AI Revolution Stalls? What Blackwell’s Overheating Issues Reveal!

NVIDIA, the undisputed leader in AI-driven GPUs, is currently navigating turbulent waters with its latest Blackwell architecture chips.
While the company has been riding high on record-breaking revenues and a surging demand for AI compute power, reports of overheating issues in Blackwell chips have cast a shadow over its otherwise stellar growth trajectory.
According to recent disclosures, these state-of-the-art GPUs face severe thermal management challenges when configured in server racks holding up to 72 units.

Soitec (SOI) – Tuesday, Aug 20, 2024

By Value Investors Club

Soitec is a leading supplier of specialty engineered wafers for semiconductor manufacturing, particularly in smartphone RF applications.
The company experienced a downturn in the smartphone market and covid-related inventory corrections but is poised for growth as chip complexity and demand for their products increase.
Soitec is expanding their market with silicon carbide (SiC) wafers for EVs, which could significantly boost earnings by 2025/2026, with a price target of €175 over 1.75 years and a 70% upside potential for investors.

Solid State – Defence contract delay affects expectations

By Edison Investment Research

The delay of a major contract inevitably has an impact on short-term profitability. Solid State has a strong balance sheet and a growth strategy to develop into a higher value-added electronics components and systems business, as witnessed by the two recent small acquisitions. Post the current hiatus we expect this to drive growth and value creation.

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Nov 19

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): SUMCO Despairs On Legacy Rebound and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

SUMCO Despairs On Legacy Rebound, EVs, China, Visibility Etc…
Trump 2.0: Understanding the Impact on India and China’s Trade
Ohayo Japan | Tesla Shares Accelerate
Japan Morning Connection: JP Set for a More Upbeat Start After Tech Rebound
Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on REX American Resources Corp. (REX)
Mat-Chem Notes – Growth Remains Elusive as Geopolitics of Battery Metals Heats Up
Biopharma Week in Review – November 18, 2024
Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – November 18, 2024
A Primer on Digital Advertising – [Making Markets, EP.49]

SUMCO Despairs On Legacy Rebound, EVs, China, Visibility Etc…

By William Keating

The pace of recovery in 200 millimeters appears to have been very weak. Customers continue to respect LTA prices but we have to push out delivery timing which impacts volumes.
China appears to have developed their own capability to fabricate wafers. Quality does not necessarily appear to be very good but there is strong pressure to comply with “Buy China”
The recovery in legacy applications has been surprisingly slow. At this stage we don’t know whether it is a slow recovery or in fact that there won’t be a recovery.

Trump 2.0: Understanding the Impact on India and China’s Trade

By Nimish Maheshwari

The return of Donald Trump to the global trade landscape brings uncertainty and potential disruption, particularly for countries like China with high trade exposure to the US
India, on the other hand, appears to be in a more insulated position, with lower trade dependence and stable fundamentals
Overall, the trade dynamics between the US, China, and India will continue to evolve, shaping the future of the global economy.

Ohayo Japan | Tesla Shares Accelerate

By Mark Chadwick

US stocks ended mixed as tech shares led a modest rebound, with Tesla surging over 5% following reports that Trump’s incoming administration may ease self-driving vehicle regulations.
Investors are now focused on Nvidia’s upcoming earnings report Wednesday as a key test for AI-related stocks, which have been crucial drivers of market gains over the past year.
The Japan Tourism Agency is proposing to eliminate the ¥500,000 daily cap on tax-free purchases for foreign tourists in its fiscal 2025 tax reforms

Japan Morning Connection: JP Set for a More Upbeat Start After Tech Rebound

By Andrew Jackson

Nidec may be back in focus on a lifeline for SMCI and heating issues for NVDA.
Tesla and power-semis are both up on the self-driving U-turn.
No bid for JP SPE’s recently, although Lasertec may still have further to fall.

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on REX American Resources Corp. (REX)

The WTR Sustainable Index was down 4.5% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 2.1%), the cex (down 4.0%) and the Nasdaq Index (up 5.7%).
Energy Technology (13.5% of the index) was down 1.6%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (48.3% of the index) was down 3.8%, ClimateTech Mining was down 3.4%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (20.6% of index) was down 5.5%.
Top 10 Performers: GRB, BE, WKHS, MULN, LILM, HLGN, FGPHF, AMPS, NEOV, NOVA

Mat-Chem Notes – Growth Remains Elusive as Geopolitics of Battery Metals Heats Up

WTR-CMI last week. After the momentous US election, the stock market has rallied on expectations of lower regulations, lower taxes, and a more confrontational approach to China and other geopolitical adversaries.
Last week saw some profit taking across the market, with the Russell 2000, which we view as a better proxy for the broader market, declining 4%, with the large- cap, tech-heavy S&P 500 posting a 2.1% decline.
Our WTR-CMI Index of 30 specialty chemicals and materials companies fared similarly, losing 2.2% of its value.

Biopharma Week in Review – November 18, 2024

We review last week’s biopharma news for meaningful clinical data, regulatory updates, research innovation, and M&A.
Last week, Trump named RFK Jr. to lead the HHS, placing an overhang on XBI and vaccine makers PFE, GSK, MRNA, MRK, and SNY. BNTX and MRK made moves in the PD- 1/VEGF space.
ABBV’s costly neuro play failed, removing the main threat to BMY’s Cobenfy. AMGN was rattled by bone loss data for its obesity drug.

Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – November 18, 2024