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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Consumer: ASICS Corp, Budweiser Brewing APAC , Honda Motor, DiDi Global, Mandarin Oriental International, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Burberry, JAKKS Pacific , Bassett Furniture Inds, Yifeng Pharmacy Chain and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Asics (7936 JP): Huge Forecast Revision to Offset Limited Passive Buying
  • BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stocks Update (July 15)
  • Honda Motor Placement – Past Large Deals Analysis – Could Do with a Bit More Correction
  • Remember DiDi Global? We Check in on China’s Dominant Rideshare Company and Review Recent Results
  • APAC Luxury Industry Series Update: Travel Rebounds While Goods Decline
  • Determine Whether Shareholder Return Is a Temporary Measure or a Shift to Value-Creating Management
  • BRBY: New CEO & Yet More Bad News for the Troubled Retailer
  • JAKK: Initiating Coverage of JAKKS with Buy, $24 PT; Building a Better Model
  • Bassett Furniture Industries, Inc. – 2QFY24 Results Were Ugly
  • Yifeng Pharmacy (603939 CH) – Monday, Apr 15, 2024


Asics (7936 JP): Huge Forecast Revision to Offset Limited Passive Buying

By Brian Freitas

  • 15 shareholders are looking to sell between 73.9-85m shares (US$1.2bn-US$1.38bn) of ASICS Corp (7936 JP) in a secondary offering that will likely be priced on 23 July.
  • ASICS Corp (7936 JP) has also announced a huge upward revision to its sales and profit forecasts with EPS expected to increase 61% from earlier estimates.
  • Passive buying will be extremely limited in the short-term with the downward pressure offset to a large extent by the sales and earnings revisions.

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stocks Update (July 15)

By David Mudd

  • Hong Kong market still trades at a substantial discount to Analyst year end price targets.
  • Budweiser APAC is dependent on China’s consumer to lift sales while Anta Sports is targeting increased sales from the upcoming Paris Olympics.
  • Sunny Optical is seeing substantial growth from it EV segment and Haitian continues to grow its international sales.  Shineway RX is a rare value play in the pharmaceutical sector.

Honda Motor Placement – Past Large Deals Analysis – Could Do with a Bit More Correction

By Sumeet Singh

  • A group of shareholders aims to raise up to US$3.2bn via selling around 5% of Honda Motor (7267 JP).
  • The possibility of such a selldown was flagged by Reuters prior to the deal launch.
  • In our earlier note, we spoke about the deal dynamics. In this note, we talk about the updates since then.

Remember DiDi Global? We Check in on China’s Dominant Rideshare Company and Review Recent Results

By Daniel Hellberg

  • First, we offer a recent history of Didi going back to its June 2021 IPO 
  • Next, we review the company’s annual results from 2020-23 plus Q124
  • Finally, we try to answer the question, “Does Didi need to raise cash soon?”

APAC Luxury Industry Series Update: Travel Rebounds While Goods Decline

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri


Determine Whether Shareholder Return Is a Temporary Measure or a Shift to Value-Creating Management

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The dissolution of cross-shareholdings and changing environment in which foreign ownership has risen to 30% have changed the view of activist investors. TSE is one such example of big change.
  • It’s convenient that activist investors can use “TSE requested” language that is both easily understood and undeniable by the company when communicating with the portfolio company to improve its issues.
  • We must determine whether this is a temporary return to shareholders until the activist investors are removed from the shareholder list, or a shift to value-creating management.

BRBY: New CEO & Yet More Bad News for the Troubled Retailer

By Investment Talk

  • It was hard to imagine a worse first quarter for Burberry.
  • At a time when investors were desperate for some positive news following a torrentially bad fiscal 2024, Burberry’s Q1 trading update emphasised a “luxury market that is proving more challenging than expected” with the weakness highlighted coming into FY25 having “deepened” .
  • Retail revenue for the quarter of £458 million came in 22% below the prior year.

JAKK: Initiating Coverage of JAKKS with Buy, $24 PT; Building a Better Model

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are initiating coverage of JAKKS Pacific, Inc. (“JAKKS” or the company), a leading designer, producer, marketer, seller and distributor of multi-brand licensed toys and related products, with a Buy rating and a $24 price target, or 7.5X our 2025 EPS projection of $3.20.
  • We believe, after a rough start to 2024, driven by weak content-led movie driven results, JAKKS is nearing a stabilization of the business and, with new licensing relationships (The Simpsons and Authentic Brands) and content-led movies (Moana 2, Sonic the Hedgehog 3) coming to the fore, is positioned for upside.
  • Further, as of 1Q24, JAKKS is debt free for the first time in recent history, with cash per share of over $3.40 and tangible book value of over $14.75 per share.

Bassett Furniture Industries, Inc. – 2QFY24 Results Were Ugly

By Water Tower Research

  • Herein, we analyze and discuss Bassett’s 2QFY24 earnings report.
  • Management reported its results for the interim period that ended on June 1, 2024, on Wednesday after market close.
  • It also conducted its “first-ever” management-sponsored and conducted earnings conference call on Thursday before market open, taking and answering analyst questions live.

Yifeng Pharmacy (603939 CH) – Monday, Apr 15, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Yifeng is a leading pharmacy chain in China with 13,000 stores nationwide, primarily in East and Southcentral regions
  • Revenue is mostly derived from prescription and over-the-counter drugs, with Traditional Chinese Medicine and non-medicine products also contributing
  • Despite already being a top pharmacy chain in China, Yifeng still has room to grow and capture more market share in the industry

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Most Read: ASICS Corp, China Traditional Chinese Medicine, MMG, Eoptolink Technology , TIS, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Legend Biotech Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • China TCM (570.HK) Update – Behind The Share Price Plunge and Prospects for Privatization Progress
  • HUGE Asics (7936) Offering – Big Guidance Boost at ATH So Feed the Ducks When They Are Quacking
  • Asics (7936 JP): Huge Forecast Revision to Offset Limited Passive Buying
  • ASICS Placement – Needs to Correct, but Watch Out for the Revision Impact
  • China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Update Provides Fodder for Bulls and Bears
  • MMG (1208) – Rights Results Show High Take-Up, Small Unhedged Portion
  • CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 18 Changes in Dec; Third Plenum; ETF Inflows; Short Sell Crackdown
  • Japan – Yet Another Big Round of Passive Selling Expected in August
  • Recently Observed Market Flow Movements Related to Korea’s Value-Up Initiatives
  • Legend Biotech (LEGN US): Takeover Interest – Possible but Tough to Pull Off


China TCM (570.HK) Update – Behind The Share Price Plunge and Prospects for Privatization Progress

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The slow progress of privatization is related to recent high-level changes in CNPGC. Decisions on SOE deals with “strategic purpose” require careful considerations, not based on “one leader’s personal preferences”.
  • Based on public information, we cannot find convincing reason to prove that CNPGC has changed its mind.There’re rumors that China TCM’s privatization is still considered important project on the agenda.
  • China TCM’s has strong fundamentals to support valuation. If there is no announcement, the privatization process is expected to proceed as usual, and we continue to wait for the voting.  

HUGE Asics (7936) Offering – Big Guidance Boost at ATH So Feed the Ducks When They Are Quacking

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close, ASICS Corp (7936 JP) announced a very large secondary offering. It points out that as a global brand, it needs global-standard corporate governance. 
  • As such, it says they’ve been discussing sales with crossholders. But we knew the cross-holders were going to sell. This offering is 85mm shares, ¥210bn at last. That’s big. 
  • The stock has doubled year-to-date. Today they raised FY guidance BIGLY (+60% OP and NP). Now a huge offering. This seems like a “feed the ducks when they’re quacking” situation.

Asics (7936 JP): Huge Forecast Revision to Offset Limited Passive Buying

By Brian Freitas

  • 15 shareholders are looking to sell between 73.9-85m shares (US$1.2bn-US$1.38bn) of ASICS Corp (7936 JP) in a secondary offering that will likely be priced on 23 July.
  • ASICS Corp (7936 JP) has also announced a huge upward revision to its sales and profit forecasts with EPS expected to increase 61% from earlier estimates.
  • Passive buying will be extremely limited in the short-term with the downward pressure offset to a large extent by the sales and earnings revisions.

ASICS Placement – Needs to Correct, but Watch Out for the Revision Impact

By Sumeet Singh

  • A group of shareholders aims to raise around US$1.3bn via selling around 11% of ASICS Corp (7936 JP).
  • For the two large banks, this will be a cleanup of their cross-shareholding.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Update Provides Fodder for Bulls and Bears

By Arun George

  • China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)’s monthly update provides ammunition to both the bulls and bears. Since falling on no news on 26 June, the spread has widened to 31.8%. 
  • The bull view is that while the timelines are delayed, the privatisation remains on track as the update shows ongoing progress in satisfying the pre-condition. 
  • The bear view is that progress remains glacial, as the consortium wants to withdraw from a binding offer by failing to satisfy the pre-condition before the long stop date.

MMG (1208) – Rights Results Show High Take-Up, Small Unhedged Portion

By Travis Lundy

  • Friday post-close, MMG (1208 HK) released the results of its Rights Offering. 3.4654bn Rights Shares at HK$2.62 saw 98.18% take-up. New Rights Shares officially start trading on 16 July.
  • The other 1.82% (63.1mm Rights Shares) saw 6.383bn excess Rights Shares applications. EAFs were allocated evenly, so applicants got 0.99% of what they bid for, but hey, free money?
  • The new Rights Shares are expected to commence trading on 16 July. Even better, there was good fundamental news out late Sunday which should add to the general wellbeing.

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 18 Changes in Dec; Third Plenum; ETF Inflows; Short Sell Crackdown

By Brian Freitas

  • There could be 18 changes at the December rebalance with the Industrials sector gaining 3 index spots and the Information Technology sector losing 5 spots.
  • We estimate one-way turnover of 3.3% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 22.07bn (US$3bn). There are a lot of stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes. There were ETF inflows last week amid a short selling crackdown as the Third Plenum kicks off.

Japan – Yet Another Big Round of Passive Selling Expected in August

By Brian Freitas

  • There are a bunch of stocks that have underperformed the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) and their peers and could be deleted from global passive portfolios in August.
  • The deletion from passive portfolios will lead to a liquidity event at the end of August where passive trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.
  • Shorts have been built up on all the stocks over the last few months and the extent of the positioning varies across stocks.

Recently Observed Market Flow Movements Related to Korea’s Value-Up Initiatives

By Sanghyun Park

  • Nine companies disclosed value-up plans, with four official and five pending disclosures. Initially, these announcements boosted stock prices, but long-term correlations were inconclusive. Yet, shareholder returns notably rose in H1.
  • NPS increased stakes in three of the nine recently announced value-up companies. They share traits in value-up trading (large caps & low PBR), potentially guiding our strategy as NPS enters.
  • BlackRock’s Hong Kong branch has recently engaged with six Korean asset management firms for potential entrustment of its Asian fund’s Korean investment portion, focusing on the value-up policy.

Legend Biotech (LEGN US): Takeover Interest – Possible but Tough to Pull Off

By Arun George

  • Legend Biotech Corp (LEGN US) shares increased 12% on Friday as a Street Insider report claimed it received takeover interest and hired Centerview Partners to help review the offer.
  • Genscript Biotech (1548 HK), the largest shareholder, shares rose 25%. Genscript responsded that it is not aware of any reasons for these share price movements and any inside information.
  • The chances for an offer are low as the offeror would face several hurdles. Nevertheless, without an offer, the upcoming CARVYKTI commercial production in 2H24 will support the share price.   

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: HK Short Interest Weekly: Petrochina and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • HK Short Interest Weekly: Petrochina, Bosideng, Anta Sports
  • KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 12th): Samsung Electronics
  • A-H Premium Weekly (Jul 12th):Wuapptec, China Telecom, Remegen, Hua Hong Semi, Flat Glass
  • Northbound Flows (Jul 12th): Moutai, Yangtze Power, Ping An Insurance, Cosco Shipping, CNNP
  • TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 12th): Umc, Alchip Tech, Quanta Computer, Chung-Hsin, TSMC
  • Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jul 12th): ICBC
  • TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jul 12th): Acer, Hon Hai, Evergreen Marine, Mediatek, Silicon Integrat


HK Short Interest Weekly: Petrochina, Bosideng, Anta Sports

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jul 5th.
  • Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
  • We highlight short changes in Petrochina (857 HK), Bosideng (3998 HK), Anta Sports (2020 HK).

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 12th): Samsung Electronics

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Jul 12th which has an aggregated holding worth USD572.7bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD2,198mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We estimate the inflows decreased by 1.0% WoW and highlight foreign changes in Samsung Electronics (005930 KS).

A-H Premium Weekly (Jul 12th):Wuapptec, China Telecom, Remegen, Hua Hong Semi, Flat Glass

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 105.7% as of Jul 12th.
  • The average A-H premium changed by -2.5ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, energy, consumer discretionary and offset by real estate, utilities, information technology.
  • We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Wuapptec, China Telecom, Remegen, Hua Hong Semi, Flat Glass .

Northbound Flows (Jul 12th): Moutai, Yangtze Power, Ping An Insurance, Cosco Shipping, CNNP

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 12th.
  • We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$2,168.8 million, led by financials, information technology, utilities sectors, and offset by health care, communication services, energy.
  • We highlight flows for Moutai, Yangtze Power, Ping An Insurance, Cosco Shipping, CNNP.

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 12th): Umc, Alchip Tech, Quanta Computer, Chung-Hsin, TSMC

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jul 12th which has an aggregated holding worth USD1,035.6bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,431mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We highlight foreign changes in Umc, Alchip Tech, Quanta Computer, Chung-Hsin, Cathay Financial, TSMC, Hon Hai, Ctbc Financial, ASE.

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jul 12th): ICBC

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 12th.
  • The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
  • We estimate the inflows to be USD 580m and highlight flows for ICBC (1398 HK).

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jul 12th): Acer, Hon Hai, Evergreen Marine, Mediatek, Silicon Integrat

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Jul 12th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD22.0bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Acer, Hon Hai, Evergreen Marine, Mediatek, Silicon Integrat, Yang Ming Marine.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Football Is Not Coming Home and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Football Is Not Coming Home
  • GEMWeekly (12 Jul 2024): Driverless Robotaxis in Shanghai; China Macro; Baidu, Samsung Electronics


Ohayo Japan | Football Is Not Coming Home

By Mark Chadwick

  • The Dow closed above 40,000 for only the second time, finishing just over two points shy of a record high
  • Mitsui & Co will invest 500 billion yen to raise its domestic data center assets to 1 trillion yen by 2030
  • SoftBank acquired Bristol-based AI firm Graphcore Ltd, although the financial terms were undisclosed. Graphcore specializes in AI chips to rival Nvidia

GEMWeekly (12 Jul 2024): Driverless Robotaxis in Shanghai; China Macro; Baidu, Samsung Electronics

By Wium Malan, CFA


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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd, JSW Steel Ltd, Lenovo, Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust


Morning Views Asia: HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd, JSW Steel Ltd, Lenovo, Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief ECM: ASICS Placement – Needs to Correct and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • ASICS Placement – Needs to Correct, but Watch Out for the Revision Impact
  • ECM Weekly (15th July 2024) – Kokusai, Wiwynn, Kelun-Biotech, Timee, Shift Up, Sanil, Avanse
  • T.S. Lines Pre-IPO – Looks like an Opportunistic Listing
  • TS Lines Pre-IPO: Should We Expect TS Lines to Match Wan Hai’s Strength in YTD 2024?
  • Pateo Connect Technology Pre-IPO Tearsheet


ASICS Placement – Needs to Correct, but Watch Out for the Revision Impact

By Sumeet Singh

  • A group of shareholders aims to raise around US$1.3bn via selling around 11% of ASICS Corp (7936 JP).
  • For the two large banks, this will be a cleanup of their cross-shareholding.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

ECM Weekly (15th July 2024) – Kokusai, Wiwynn, Kelun-Biotech, Timee, Shift Up, Sanil, Avanse

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
  • On the IPO front, there were a number of listing in the past week, most of which performed as per our expectations.
  • On the placement front, Japan continued to dominate the ECM flows.

T.S. Lines Pre-IPO – Looks like an Opportunistic Listing

By Clarence Chu

  • T.S. Lines (TSL HK) is looking to raise about US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • T.S. Lines (TSL) is a container shipping firm primarily operating in the Asia Pacific (APAC) region.
  • In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

TS Lines Pre-IPO: Should We Expect TS Lines to Match Wan Hai’s Strength in YTD 2024?

By Daniel Hellberg

  • TS Lines’ comp Wan Hai has reported strong numbers so far in 2024
  • But TS Lines is unlikely to match Wan Hai’s impressive H124 gains
  • Next for TS Lines: H124 financials and valuation vs Wan Hai, RCL

Pateo Connect Technology Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Pateo Connect Technology (PTC HK) seeks to raise up to US$300m in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by CICC, Guotai Junan, CMBI, Huatai and Citic Securities.
  • Pateo Connect Technology (PCT) provides one-stop smart cockpit solutions and intelligent vehicle connectivity solutions. Its smart cockpit solutions enhance driving safety, convenience and connectivity, offering a more intelligent driving experience. 
  • It offers OEM customers the flexibility to choose individual software and products or combine various components into a seamless and integrated smart cockpit solution. 

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Thai Beverage (THBEV SP): Faces Potential Hit as Vietnam Proposes Beer Tax Hike and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Thai Beverage (THBEV SP): Faces Potential Hit as Vietnam Proposes Beer Tax Hike
  • China Consumption Weekly (15 Jul 2024): Seres, BYD, Guangzhou Automobile,Trip.com
  • Zozo Still Expecting New Highs
  • CHARLES & COLVARD LTD (CTHR) – Sunday, Apr 14, 2024
  • Coherent Corp (COHR) – Monday, Apr 15, 2024


Thai Beverage (THBEV SP): Faces Potential Hit as Vietnam Proposes Beer Tax Hike

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) majority-owned SABECO, a leading beer company in Vietnam, may face volume declines if the proposed beer tax hike is implemented.
  • The tougher market outlook makes the earlier proposed BeerCo listing unlikely anytime soon.  
  • With no meaningful stock catalyst, weak sector outlook and a stretched balance sheet, the stock could slip down after index inclusion related passive stock buying ends.

China Consumption Weekly (15 Jul 2024): Seres, BYD, Guangzhou Automobile,Trip.com

By Ming Lu

  • Guangzhou Automobile sales volume of new energy vehicle decreased by 38% YoY in June and by 31% YoY in 1H24.
  • BYD plans to invest US$1 billion to build a factory in Turkey.
  • AliPay announced that foreigners’ consumption amount in China in 1H24 was eight times of last year.

Zozo Still Expecting New Highs

By Michael Causton

  • Zozo continues to post solid gains in sales but a slight dip in new customers has led some to suggest that the online fashion mall is reaching its peak. 
  • Meanwhile, The Japanese fashion retail sector has seen improved performance from retail stores at the expense of e-commerce, with stores actually outperforming online last year.
  • While further growth may be harder to achieve, Zozo has several strategies in place that should help it reach its target of ¥800 billion.

CHARLES & COLVARD LTD (CTHR) – Sunday, Apr 14, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Charles & Colvard operates in the lab-created diamond industry and plans to transition to lab-grown diamonds and direct distribution
  • The company experienced a challenging second quarter but has a solid foundation and potential for improved financial performance in the future
  • Despite current setbacks, Charles & Colvard could present a value investment opportunity for patient investors awaiting a turnaround

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Coherent Corp (COHR) – Monday, Apr 15, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Coherent Corp. is a maker of optical components with a focus on optical connectivity within GPU clusters
  • Predicted 20%+ internal rate of return over a 3-year holding period due to secular adoption trends
  • Emphasis on addressing interconnect bandwidth wall issue in data centers to improve data movement speed in relation to compute speeds

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Merger Arb Mondays (15 Jul) – China TCM and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Merger Arb Mondays (15 Jul) – China TCM, Canvest, Henlius, Hollysys, Second Chance, Anasarda, Rex
  • MMG (1208) – Rights Results Show High Take-Up, Small Unhedged Portion
  • POSCO Holdings: Announces Shares Buyback and Cancellation of Nearly 2 Trillion Won
  • CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 18 Changes in Dec; Third Plenum; ETF Inflows; Short Sell Crackdown
  • CK Infra (1038 HK): London Calling
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 12 Jul 2024): Roughly Flat Week Ahead of 3rd Plenum, Possible A Short-Covers
  • Legend Biotech (LEGN US) – A Takeover Offer?
  • Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 12 July 2024): Finance, Industry, Infotech Bought
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Jul 2024); Slower Flows Gross and Net (Buy), Still SOEs
  • EQD / NSE Vol Update / Vega Was Bid & Gamma Was Offered



MMG (1208) – Rights Results Show High Take-Up, Small Unhedged Portion

By Travis Lundy

  • Friday post-close, MMG (1208 HK) released the results of its Rights Offering. 3.4654bn Rights Shares at HK$2.62 saw 98.18% take-up. New Rights Shares officially start trading on 16 July.
  • The other 1.82% (63.1mm Rights Shares) saw 6.383bn excess Rights Shares applications. EAFs were allocated evenly, so applicants got 0.99% of what they bid for, but hey, free money?
  • The new Rights Shares are expected to commence trading on 16 July. Even better, there was good fundamental news out late Sunday which should add to the general wellbeing.

POSCO Holdings: Announces Shares Buyback and Cancellation of Nearly 2 Trillion Won

By Douglas Kim

  • POSCO Holdings (005490 KS) announced a major shareholder return policy to buyback and cancel nearly 2 trillion won worth of treasury shares from 2024 to 2026. 
  • The company will cancel 5.25 million treasury shares representing 6.2% of outstanding shares (about 1.9 trillion won). It will also repurchase and cancel additional 100 billion won of shares.
  • POSCO Holdings has taken a major initiative to provide greater returns to its shareholders and this should have a positive impact on its share price. 

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 18 Changes in Dec; Third Plenum; ETF Inflows; Short Sell Crackdown

By Brian Freitas

  • There could be 18 changes at the December rebalance with the Industrials sector gaining 3 index spots and the Information Technology sector losing 5 spots.
  • We estimate one-way turnover of 3.3% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 22.07bn (US$3bn). There are a lot of stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes. There were ETF inflows last week amid a short selling crackdown as the Third Plenum kicks off.

CK Infra (1038 HK): London Calling

By David Blennerhassett

  • CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK), 75.67%-held by CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK), announced it is considering a second listing on an overseas stock exchange, such as London.
  • A UK-listing makes perfect sense. In excess of 90% of CKI’s FY23 profit was sourced from businesses outside Asia, with ~50% from its UK ops.
  • The wording in the announcement is unclear – a dual primary listing, or a secondary listing? The LSE is also undergoing a listing regime change, effective 29th July.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 12 Jul 2024): Roughly Flat Week Ahead of 3rd Plenum, Possible A Short-Covers

By Travis Lundy

  • The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
  • SOUTHBOUND inflow continues, albeit smaller. SOE Banks/Energy/Telecoms remain a big net buy. Percentage of volume is large. NORTHBOUND saw finance buying. Possible short-covering ahead of new short-selling restrictions/access.
  • AH Premia were up small on average, down small on the liquid pairs. But HSI/HSCEI vs CSI300/500 performance spreads were higher. Third Plenum this week may drive “sentiment.”

Legend Biotech (LEGN US) – A Takeover Offer?

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Legend Biotech received takeover interest and hired Centerview Partners to review the offer. Due to the satisfactory clinical results/promising commercialization outlook of Carvykti, Legend Bio is an attractive M&A candidate.
  • Peak sales of Carvykti could exceed US$5 billion. After Carvykti is approved by the FDA/EC for 2L treatment of MM, future valuation leap of legend Bio is becoming more certain.
  • Legend Bio is clearly undervalued. We think reasonable market value range for Legend Bio is about US$12.5 – 15 billion, which means there is decent upward potential for share price.

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 12 July 2024): Finance, Industry, Infotech Bought

By Travis Lundy

  • The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
  • Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB +15.9bn of A-shares. NORTHBOUND bought Financials, Industry, Infotech, etc. They sold Communications (which was a HUGE SOUTHBOUND buy) and Pharma/Healthcare.
  • It is notable that net flows as a percentage of value traded are clearly “short gamma”, which is to say, sector underperformers are being sold, sector outperformers being bought.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Jul 2024); Slower Flows Gross and Net (Buy), Still SOEs

By Travis Lundy

  • SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$7.3bn this week, on smallish two-way volumes. Major buying was mostly SOEs.
  • The more I watch, the more I think the last few months have had serious national team buying of banks and energy, perhaps ahead of shareholder return policy changes.
  • But valuations are acceptable. Flows are good. Policy changes are afoot. SOUTHBOUND may continue to see inflows – national team and otherwise.

EQD / NSE Vol Update / Vega Was Bid & Gamma Was Offered

By Sankalp Singh

  • IVs for Monthly & Quarterly contracts rose as options market baked in additional risk premia for the Budget Announcement. 
  • Vega bid & Gamma offered  – Monthly IVs higher by +2.3 vols & Weekly IVs lower by -0.5 vols.  Short-Dated IVs closed lower in spite of upcoming earnings events 
  • Term structure is trading with a kinked shape, with Monthly IVs trading at a markup to rest of the curve

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Daily Brief Macro: Real Interest Rate Plays a Key Role in Hong Kong Residential Property Market and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Real Interest Rate Plays a Key Role in Hong Kong Residential Property Market
  • Overview #6 – Japanese Data Perks Up.
  • Trading the Slow Motion Melt-Up
  • A Roadmap for the Rest of 2024
  • Actinver – Macro Daily: Industrial Activity


Real Interest Rate Plays a Key Role in Hong Kong Residential Property Market

By Alex Ng

  • Negative real interest rate had been associated with booming residential property prices in Hong Kong from 2008 to 2021 
  • However the party is over as Hong Kong interest rate moves up following ups in Fed Fund Rate due to Linked Exchange Rate System.
  • Residential prices rise 250% during the negative real interest rate period of 2008 to 2021, and are down 22.5% immediately during the real interest rate hike in 2022 to 2023.

Overview #6 – Japanese Data Perks Up.

By Rikki Malik

  • A review of recent events impacting our investment themes or outlook
  • Japan perks up as machine tool orders rise y/y for the first time in nearly 19 months
  • US Interest Rate cut expectations rise to a “sure thing” in September

Trading the Slow Motion Melt-Up

By Cam Hui

  • Valuation and breadth indicators are flashing concerning signs of excesses. We believe this market bull has more room to run.
  • If this is a market bubble, valuations are stretched but not bubbly.
  • Price and fundamental momentum are strong, and we are not seeing signs of distribution.

A Roadmap for the Rest of 2024

By Cam Hui

  • Our base-case scenario is based on an analysis of current market conditions and seasonal patterns of a near-term top in July and sideways consolidation for the remainder of the month.
  • Expect a rally in August, which could be consistent with an anticipation of a September rate cut in the wake of the July 31 FOMC meeting and Jackson Hole speeches.
  • Volatility and risk should rise into the November election, followed by a post-electoral rally into year-end.

Actinver – Macro Daily: Industrial Activity

By Actinver

  • In May, industrial activity grew 0.7% MoM, driven by mining and construction.
  • Unlike what happened at the beginning of the year, government projects are no longer the driving force of construction, but rather private sector construction.
  • In May, industrial production reversed the decline seen in April (-0.4% MoM), growing 0.7% MoM.

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Daily Brief Australia: MMG and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • MMG (1208) – Rights Results Show High Take-Up, Small Unhedged Portion


MMG (1208) – Rights Results Show High Take-Up, Small Unhedged Portion

By Travis Lundy

  • Friday post-close, MMG (1208 HK) released the results of its Rights Offering. 3.4654bn Rights Shares at HK$2.62 saw 98.18% take-up. New Rights Shares officially start trading on 16 July.
  • The other 1.82% (63.1mm Rights Shares) saw 6.383bn excess Rights Shares applications. EAFs were allocated evenly, so applicants got 0.99% of what they bid for, but hey, free money?
  • The new Rights Shares are expected to commence trading on 16 July. Even better, there was good fundamental news out late Sunday which should add to the general wellbeing.

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