Category

Daily Briefs

Jul 19
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Pylon Technologies , Ryanair Holdings, Rentokil Initial , Rolls-Royce Holdings, Blackline Safety and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50 Sep 24: Final Ranks; Some Question Marks over Ninebot Re-Inclusion
  • Ryanair – Pricing Appears to Be Softening; Re-Setting Profitability Expectations
  • Rentokil Initial Plc (RTO) – Wednesday, Apr 17, 2024
  • Rolls-Royce: Turbines and Tribulations – [Business Breakdowns, EP.174]
  • Blackline Safety Corp (BLN.TO) – Wednesday, Apr 17, 2024

Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50 Sep 24: Final Ranks; Some Question Marks over Ninebot Re-Inclusion

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
  • Unlike the other popular Chinese indices (CSI, SSE, ChiNext, etc.) that rebalance semiannually, the STAR 50 index has a quarterly rebalance cycle and the next rebalance will be in September.
  • With the reference period for the September 2024 STAR 50 index rebal event coming to an end, we have presented our final expectations for ADDs and DELs in this insight.

Ryanair – Pricing Appears to Be Softening; Re-Setting Profitability Expectations

By Neil Glynn

  • Latest fare data suggests an incrementally more concerning trend for Ryanair pricing from June.
  • Concerns over pricing continue to increase in Europe, following Lufthansa’s profit warning last week.
  • We cut our FY25 net income by 9% to €2,289m albeit remain above consensus of €2,170m.

Rentokil Initial Plc (RTO) – Wednesday, Apr 17, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Rentokil Initial (RTO) is trading at a historically low valuation despite being in a resilient industry like pest control
  • Rentokil is well-managed with a long-tenured management team that consistently exceeds guidance and has a track record of double-digit EPS growth
  • With a P/E ratio of 17.5x, Rentokil presents an attractive investment opportunity with potential for a 30%+ return by the end of 2025 if targets are met and the multiple reverts to historical averages

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Rolls-Royce: Turbines and Tribulations – [Business Breakdowns, EP.174]

By Business Breakdowns

  • Rolls Royce is a British company known for its power business, mainly converting stored energy into kinetic energy through big engines such as airplane engines.
  • The company’s core business is in civil aerospace, with a focus on engineering excellence and a history dating back to the early 1900s.
  • The publicly traded entity of Rolls Royce Holdings focuses on the aerospace market, specifically in the production of airplane engines for large commercial planes and business.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Blackline Safety Corp (BLN.TO) – Wednesday, Apr 17, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Blackline Safety provides gas detection and safety monitoring services, currently undervalued at 2.3x NTM sales
  • Transitioning from hardware to SaaS will potentially double the company’s value in 3 years
  • Management’s experience in the industry supports the company’s potential for future success and 100% upside over the next 3 years through revenue growth and margin improvement.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jul 19
0

Daily Brief Financials: Huafa Property Services Group, Invincible Investment, Kyoto Financial Group , iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, Cls Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Huafa Property Services (982 HK): Wide Spread Ahead of the 28 August Vote
  • Invincible Investment Corp Placement  – Another Accretive Acquisition, past Deals Have Done Well
  • Kyoto Financial Group (5844 JP) – Limited Shareholdings Unwind, for Now
  • Ishare 20+ Year Treasury Bond Etf (TLT – Nov 15th 2024 $100 ) – Wednesday, Apr 17, 2024
  • CLS Holdings USA, Inc. – Water Tower Hour Recap

Huafa Property Services (982 HK): Wide Spread Ahead of the 28 August Vote

By Arun George

  • Huafa Property Services Group (982 HK)’s IFA opines that Huafa Industrial Co., Ltd. Zhuhai (600325 CH)’s HK$0.29 privatisation offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 28 August. 
  • Key conditions include approval by at least 75% of independent shareholders (<10% of independent shareholders rejection) and a headcount test. The offer price is final.
  • No shareholder holding a blocking stake, low AGM minority participation rate and calm retail boards suggest low vote risk. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread is 9.4%/52.5%. 

Invincible Investment Corp Placement  – Another Accretive Acquisition, past Deals Have Done Well

By Clarence Chu

  • Invincible Investment (8963 JP) is looking to raise around US$375m in its primary follow-on offering. The proceeds will be used to partially acquire 12 assets from its Sponsor’s affiliates. 
  • The REIT has been very active on the acquisition front, and has highlighted its ongoing discussions with its Sponsor for acquisitions. Thus, the current deal should be well flagged.
  • In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Kyoto Financial Group (5844 JP) – Limited Shareholdings Unwind, for Now

By Victor Galliano

  • Kyoto Financial’s stakes in three key listed Japanese corporates are valued at over 85% of its market capitalization with its total equity holdings accounting for 130%+ of its market capitalization
  • Kyoto management intends to retain the bulk of the bank’s equity holdings, opposing the growing trend for Japanese listed companies to unwind crossholdings; management will review this policy in November
  • In the near term, we see no major catalyst for Kyoto to accelerate its equity holdings unwind and so, combined with its underwhelming fundamentals, we are negative on Kyoto Financial

Ishare 20+ Year Treasury Bond Etf (TLT – Nov 15th 2024 $100 ) – Wednesday, Apr 17, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Consider purchasing Nov 15th 2024 calls with a $100 strike price for TLT as a hedge against inflation and US debt concerns
  • Analyst behind recommendation has seen success with asymmetrical portfolio hedges in the past, turning small investments into significant returns
  • Investing in these calls could provide a sanity hedge and offensive strategy for the future, potential for significant gains if market trends continue as predicted

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

CLS Holdings USA, Inc. – Water Tower Hour Recap

By Water Tower Research

  • Seeing the medical benefits of cannabis inspired Ramalho to dedicate his career to helping others.

  • He shares how he started at CLS as budtender, advanced to management roles, and eventually became COO of the company.

  • We cover the CLS’ key assets including Oasis Cannabis Dispensary, a popular retail cannabis store for locals and visitors. 

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jul 19
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Honda Motor, Thai Beverage, MercadoLibre , Lands’ End Inc, Dollar General, Betterware de Mexico Sab de CV, Health And Happiness (H&H), Perfect Medical Health and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Big Honda (7267) Offering – Flow Timing Matters
  • Thai Bev (THBEV SP): Exits Property, Boosts F&N Stake. Deal Valuation Seem Excessive
  • MercadoLibre: Analyzing the Market Reaction to S&P’s Outlook Change
  • LE: Mgmt. Meetings Confirm Positives; Raising PT to $20 (From $17); Reit. Buy
  • Dollar General Corp (DG) – Wednesday, Apr 17, 2024
  • BWMX: 2Q Preview: Another Quarter of Strong Proof; Reiterate Buy, $22.50 PT
  • Morning Views Asia: Anton Oilfield, Health And Happiness (H&H), Vedanta Resources
  • Perfect Medical (1830 HK): Gleanings from the Annual Report and Presentation For FY24

Big Honda (7267) Offering – Flow Timing Matters

By Travis Lundy

  • The ¥500bn Offering of Honda shares is now priced (¥1,664.5/share) making it ¥497.46bn. Bookbuilding for retail – 80% of the book – is now. The price today closed at ¥1,665/share. 
  • The Offering has follow-on “non-discretionary” demand which is non-negligible. It is worth understanding the amounts and timing.
  • The lockups and non-discretionary demand, along with Honda’s relative cheapness as a large cap OEM and likely upcoming offerings on competitors means it has support.

Thai Bev (THBEV SP): Exits Property, Boosts F&N Stake. Deal Valuation Seem Excessive

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Thai Beverage(THBEV SP)  has proposed a share swap-deal with a promoter company to acquire additional stake in FraserAnd Neave(FNN SP)  in exchange for Frasers Property at negotiated valuations, not market prices.
  • Post-Completion of the swap deal with the promoter-owned entity, which requires shareholder approval, Thai Bev will hold a 69.6% stake in F&N and no stake in Fraser Property (FPL).
  • If the stake swap were valued at yesterday’s closing share prices, it would imply a drop in the total stake value for Thai Bev after the proposed deal.

MercadoLibre: Analyzing the Market Reaction to S&P’s Outlook Change

By Leandro Gubler

  • S&P revised MELI’s credit rating outlook to positive from stable and affirmed its BB+ issuer credit rating.
  • MELI’s credit metrics are considerably stronger than its peers in the high-yield rating category
  • MELI’s bonds have arguably already been trading at the investment grade level, supported by the company’s solid credit metrics for the rating category.

LE: Mgmt. Meetings Confirm Positives; Raising PT to $20 (From $17); Reit. Buy

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating and projections and raising our price target to $20 (from $17) after meeting with Lands’ End management at their headquarters in Dodgeville, Wisconsin.
  • We believe management is laser focused on continuing to drive higher overall returns to the company, from shifting the product mix, lowering inventories, realizing higher pricing, focusing on features and stories to drive deeper customer interaction and loyalty, deepening licensing penetration on non-core categories, expanding internationally and driving stronger results at the Outfitters segment.
  • The emphasis on leveraging the highly trusted Lands’ End moniker to maximize brand equity, drive higher returns and create an even more compelling lifestyle story is still in the early stages and, we believe, will drive multi-period growth.

Dollar General Corp (DG) – Wednesday, Apr 17, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Author may buy or sell securities related to discussed issuer without informing readers
  • Information presented is believed to be accurate but not guaranteed in terms of accuracy or completeness
  • Author’s views are opinion-based and subject to change at any time; readers advised to do their own research and not base investment decisions on the note

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

BWMX: 2Q Preview: Another Quarter of Strong Proof; Reiterate Buy, $22.50 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, $22.50 price targe and projections for Betterware de Mexico with the company reporting 2Q24 (June) results after the close on Thursday.
  • We believe, while the Betterware division may be a drag (due primarily to foreign exchange), JAFRA continued to shine and the expansion into the United States has slowly begun to gain momentum at both Betterware and JAFRA.
  • Further, we expect management to remain positive over key trends and for the company to once again reiterate overall guidance for 2024.

Morning Views Asia: Anton Oilfield, Health And Happiness (H&H), Vedanta Resources

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

Perfect Medical (1830 HK): Gleanings from the Annual Report and Presentation For FY24

By Sameer Taneja

  • We analyze the audited annual report of Perfect Medical Health (1830 HK) released on the 16th of July. We also analyzed the company’s FY24 presentation. 
  • The key takeaway is that the company will endeavor to improve its efficiency by cross-selling more services through Beauty Supermarket and expanding the sleep therapy business with Goku.
  • Trading at a 12.5% dividend yield with 17% of its market cap in cash and >50% ROEs, the business is solid and worth exploring as an investment. 

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jul 19
0

Most Read: Aisin , Hygeia Healthcare Group, Kokusai Electric , KT Corp, Honda Motor, Samson Holding, Huafa Property Services Group, Thai Beverage, Advanced Info Service, Capitol Health and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Toyota Group Cross-Holding Structure Primer – Holdings, Unwind Progress, Buyback Policies, Etc
  • Hong Kong: Stocks Facing the Passive Boot in August
  • Kokusai Electric Placement Updates – Misbehaving
  • Reasons Why KT’s Foreign Room Is Likely to Fall Below the 3.75% Cutoff Level
  • Big Honda (7267) Offering – Flow Timing Matters
  • Samson (531 HK): MBO Via A Scheme
  • Huafa Property Services (982 HK): Wide Spread Ahead of the 28 August Vote
  • Thai Bev (THBEV SP): Exits Property, Boosts F&N Stake. Deal Valuation Seem Excessive
  • GULF/INTUCH Merger & ADVANC/THCOM VTO’s
  • Capitol Health (CAJ AU): Binding Merger with Integral Diagnostics (IDX AU)

Toyota Group Cross-Holding Structure Primer – Holdings, Unwind Progress, Buyback Policies, Etc

By Travis Lundy

  • Last September in the release of its new Mid-Term Management Plan, Toyota Group member Aisin (7259 JP) announced a plan to cut cross-holdings to zero. JTEKT Corp (6473 JP) followed suit.
  • It started with a selldown of Denso Corp (6902 JP), then Toyota Industries (6201 JP), now Aisin. Last FY, Toyota Group cos reduced crossholdings by ¥870bn. This year will be more.
  • Attached below is a general breakdown of Toyota Group cross-holdings, discussion of cross-holding policies, and analysis of what is next, and what is not.

Hong Kong: Stocks Facing the Passive Boot in August

By Brian Freitas

  • There are a bunch of stocks listed in Hong Kong that have underperformed the HSCEI INDEX and their peers and could be deleted from global passive portfolios in August.
  • The deletion from passive portfolios will lead to a liquidity event at the end of August where passive trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.
  • There has been a big jump in cumulative excess volume in some stocks and the A/H premium on a lot of the names has jumped over the last few months.

Kokusai Electric Placement Updates – Misbehaving

By Sumeet Singh

  • KKR and KSP Kokusai Investments are looking to raise approximately US$1.7bn through an extended secondary follow-on offering, via selling approximately 22.3% of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP). 
  • We have looked at the lockup expiry and deal dynamics in our earlier notes.
  • In this note, we talk about share price performance since then.

Reasons Why KT’s Foreign Room Is Likely to Fall Below the 3.75% Cutoff Level

By Sanghyun Park

  • KT’s foreign room has been exhausted due to value-up trading inflows, NPS selling shares, and KT canceling treasury stocks.
  • Hyundai Motor may sell 0.5% of its KT stake, likely to overseas investors. KT’s 700,000 share cancellation will lower foreign ownership to the low-4% range, possibly below 3.75% by November.
  • Focus on the stock price surge from ETF recall requests around the effective date, and note that passive outflow corrections typically occur afterward.

Big Honda (7267) Offering – Flow Timing Matters

By Travis Lundy

  • The ¥500bn Offering of Honda shares is now priced (¥1,664.5/share) making it ¥497.46bn. Bookbuilding for retail – 80% of the book – is now. The price today closed at ¥1,665/share. 
  • The Offering has follow-on “non-discretionary” demand which is non-negligible. It is worth understanding the amounts and timing.
  • The lockups and non-discretionary demand, along with Honda’s relative cheapness as a large cap OEM and likely upcoming offerings on competitors means it has support.

Samson (531 HK): MBO Via A Scheme

By David Blennerhassett

  • Furniture trader Samson Holding (531 HK) has announced a Scheme from Shan Huei Kuo, Samson’s Chairman. 
  • The Cancellation price is $0.48, a 50% to last close. The premium is more pronounced if going back a month. The price is final.
  • This looks done. But Samson is an illiquid micro cap.

Huafa Property Services (982 HK): Wide Spread Ahead of the 28 August Vote

By Arun George

  • Huafa Property Services Group (982 HK)’s IFA opines that Huafa Industrial Co., Ltd. Zhuhai (600325 CH)’s HK$0.29 privatisation offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 28 August. 
  • Key conditions include approval by at least 75% of independent shareholders (<10% of independent shareholders rejection) and a headcount test. The offer price is final.
  • No shareholder holding a blocking stake, low AGM minority participation rate and calm retail boards suggest low vote risk. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread is 9.4%/52.5%. 

Thai Bev (THBEV SP): Exits Property, Boosts F&N Stake. Deal Valuation Seem Excessive

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Thai Beverage(THBEV SP)  has proposed a share swap-deal with a promoter company to acquire additional stake in FraserAnd Neave(FNN SP)  in exchange for Frasers Property at negotiated valuations, not market prices.
  • Post-Completion of the swap deal with the promoter-owned entity, which requires shareholder approval, Thai Bev will hold a 69.6% stake in F&N and no stake in Fraser Property (FPL).
  • If the stake swap were valued at yesterday’s closing share prices, it would imply a drop in the total stake value for Thai Bev after the proposed deal.

GULF/INTUCH Merger & ADVANC/THCOM VTO’s

By Brian Freitas

Capitol Health (CAJ AU): Binding Merger with Integral Diagnostics (IDX AU)

By Arun George

  • Capitol Health (CAJ AU) has entered a binding merger proposal with Integral Diagnostics (IDX AU) at 0.12849 Integral shares per Capitol share.
  • The transaction will require approval from the ACCC and Capitol shareholders. Due to the minimal geographic overlap, ACCC clearance should be forthcoming.
  • The offer is attractive compared to historical exchange ratios, trading ranges and peer multiples. At the last close, the gross spread was 8.0%. 

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Analytics and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free



Jul 19
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 12th): Wesfarmers and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 12th): Wesfarmers, Mineral Resource, Macquarie, South32, Car

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 12th): Wesfarmers, Mineral Resource, Macquarie, South32, Car

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jul 12th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD20.9bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Wesfarmers, Mineral Resource, Macquarie, South32, Car.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jul 19
0

Daily Brief Credit: MercadoLibre: Analyzing the Market Reaction to S&P’s Outlook Change and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • MercadoLibre: Analyzing the Market Reaction to S&P’s Outlook Change
  • Morning Views Asia: Anton Oilfield, Health And Happiness (H&H), Vedanta Resources

MercadoLibre: Analyzing the Market Reaction to S&P’s Outlook Change

By Leandro Gubler

  • S&P revised MELI’s credit rating outlook to positive from stable and affirmed its BB+ issuer credit rating.
  • MELI’s credit metrics are considerably stronger than its peers in the high-yield rating category
  • MELI’s bonds have arguably already been trading at the investment grade level, supported by the company’s solid credit metrics for the rating category.

Morning Views Asia: Anton Oilfield, Health And Happiness (H&H), Vedanta Resources

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jul 19
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): SEBI’s Proposed New Asset Class: Bridging Mutual Funds and Portfolio Management Services and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • SEBI’s Proposed New Asset Class: Bridging Mutual Funds and Portfolio Management Services
  • Japan Morning Connection – 18 July, 2024
  • Ohayo Japan | Dow Falls 500 Points
  • # 31 India Insight: Tata Power Investment, Zee Fund Raise, India Defence Indigenous Components
  • [Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:700HK/JD US/PDD US/BABA US/NTES US/SE US/TCOM US/ATAT US/3690HK/BABAUS
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]:BZ US/LI US/NIO US/XPEV US/1810 HK/1211 HK

SEBI’s Proposed New Asset Class: Bridging Mutual Funds and Portfolio Management Services

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • SEBI proposes a new asset class to bridge the gap between mutual funds and portfolio management services, requiring a minimum investment of INR 10 lakh.
  • The new class targets sophisticated investors, offering higher-risk products and strategies, while ensuring regulatory compliance to curb unauthorized investments.
  • This initiative provides a regulated, higher-risk investment option for investors, encouraging innovation in AMCs’ investment strategies while enhancing market depth and investor protection.

Japan Morning Connection – 18 July, 2024

By Andrew Jackson

  • DOW +0.59%, Russell -1.06%, SPX -1.39%, Nasdaq -2.77%, SOX -6.81% as investors shifted from growth to value stocks. UST10 was flat at 4.16%, and the yen strengthened to Y156.18.
  • Commodities were mixed with copper -0.3%, nickel -0.83%, and Brent +1.72%. Energy and consumer staples rose, with VSF +13.6% after Essilor Luxottica agreed to buy Supreme. US homebuilders lost ground. 
  • Tech stocks fell sharply after ASML’s earnings missed estimates and news of potential US export restrictions to China. Focus on SPE names with high China exposure as shorts.

Ohayo Japan | Dow Falls 500 Points

By Mark Chadwick

  • Tech stocks continued their decline on Thursday, with the Nasdaq Composite falling over 0.7% following its worst day since 2022
  • Dalton Investments, a US activist fund, acquired a 5% stake in Ezaki Glico, becoming its fourth-largest shareholder.
  • TSMC reports that AI chip constraints will persist until 2025, despite exploring new packaging technologies

# 31 India Insight: Tata Power Investment, Zee Fund Raise, India Defence Indigenous Components

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Tata Power’s INR 20,000-crore investment in renewables to boosts clean energy
  • Zee Entertainment’s $239 million FCCBs plan: Raises funds to bolster financial position
  • India to approve INR 70,000-crore warship order: Advanced warships with Indigenous components

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:700HK/JD US/PDD US/BABA US/NTES US/SE US/TCOM US/ATAT US/3690HK/BABAUS

By Ying Pan

  • 700 HK: Tencent’s <Civilization Mobile> Officially Launches, Ranks Second on iOS Download Chart.（+）
  • JD US/PDD US/BABA US : JD to launch new monthly promo event “Super 18” (/)
  • PDD US: PDD announces new requirements for some merchants (+)

[Blue Lotus Daily]:BZ US/LI US/NIO US/XPEV US/1810 HK/1211 HK

By Eric Wen

  • BZ US: Age 16-24 unemployment rate declined for three consecutive months, mainly driven by the manufacturing sector.（+）
  • LI US/NIO US/XPEV US/1810 HK/1211 HK: EV post holiday sales weak, LI and AITO strong but NIO and Xiaomi down.（/////////）
  • 1810 HK: Xiaomi to launch new products on July 19th (/)

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jul 19
0

Daily Brief ECM: Big Honda (7267) Offering – Flow Timing Matters and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Big Honda (7267) Offering – Flow Timing Matters
  • Invincible Investment Corp Placement  – Another Accretive Acquisition, past Deals Have Done Well
  • Premier Energies Pre-IPO – Still Ramping up but Already Profitable

Big Honda (7267) Offering – Flow Timing Matters

By Travis Lundy

  • The ¥500bn Offering of Honda shares is now priced (¥1,664.5/share) making it ¥497.46bn. Bookbuilding for retail – 80% of the book – is now. The price today closed at ¥1,665/share. 
  • The Offering has follow-on “non-discretionary” demand which is non-negligible. It is worth understanding the amounts and timing.
  • The lockups and non-discretionary demand, along with Honda’s relative cheapness as a large cap OEM and likely upcoming offerings on competitors means it has support.

Invincible Investment Corp Placement  – Another Accretive Acquisition, past Deals Have Done Well

By Clarence Chu

  • Invincible Investment (8963 JP) is looking to raise around US$375m in its primary follow-on offering. The proceeds will be used to partially acquire 12 assets from its Sponsor’s affiliates. 
  • The REIT has been very active on the acquisition front, and has highlighted its ongoing discussions with its Sponsor for acquisitions. Thus, the current deal should be well flagged.
  • In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Premier Energies Pre-IPO – Still Ramping up but Already Profitable

By Ethan Aw

  • Premier Energies Limited (0377949D IN) is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming India IPO. It is a manufacturer of solar photovoltaic (PV) cells, and solar modules. 
  • It also executes engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) projects and provides follow-up operation and maintenance (O&M) services. 
  • In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jul 19
0

Daily Brief Macro: Investment Strategy Under Upcoming US Rate Cut and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Investment Strategy Under Upcoming US Rate Cut
  • Where US Stocks Are Heading Before Rate Cut
  • [ETP 29/2024] Oil Rebounds on Inventory Drop; Energy Majors’ Targets Cut
  • Debt Watch: Will the US Treasury spook markets with issuance in the QRA again?
  • CX Daily: Tesla’s Chinese Rival Hits Accelerator on Smart Driving
  • Almost Half of Global GDP Tracking Unevenly
  • ECB: September Cut Not Yet Determined
  • UK: Slow Slackening Progress for Pay
  • ECB Refi Rate 4.25% (consensus 4.25%) in Jul-24

Investment Strategy Under Upcoming US Rate Cut

By Alex Ng

  • In face of the recent speeches by several FOMC members, we are changing or non-consensus view of no rate cut this year to one rate cut in September
  • Under rate cuts, several asset classes such as real estate stocks, gold, and other safe haven currencies will rise.
  • However, we still believe there will not be continuous series of rate cuts in the remainder of this year such that various asset classes listed above will only rise modestly. 

Where US Stocks Are Heading Before Rate Cut

By Alex Ng

  • To assess US equity direction before rate cut, we must first forecast the next rate cut. Our house forecasts that there will only be one rate cut during 2024.
  • We believe S&P500, after hitting all-time high this week is due a 10% correction until the rate cut in September. Rate cuts are essential for S&P500 to tread new high. 
  • But we believe the rate cut is going to be one-off as the labor market remains bullish and inflation still comes off a tad higher than the Fed target.

[ETP 29/2024] Oil Rebounds on Inventory Drop; Energy Majors’ Targets Cut

By Suhas Reddy

  • US crude oil inventories fell by 4.9 million barrels in the week ending 12/Jul, marking the third consecutive weekly decline.
  • As of 12/Jul, US natural gas inventories were up 8.4% YoY and 16.9% above the 5-year seasonal average.
  • UBS expects Chevron’s Q2 earnings to fall short of expectations due to LNG project downtime and lower international refining margins.

Debt Watch: Will the US Treasury spook markets with issuance in the QRA again?

By Andreas Steno

  • Good evening from Europe! The quarterly refunding announcement is due on July 29, and it always holds the potential to spook duration markets and liquidity betas.
  • The release of the updated budget projections from the CBO in June garnered attention as they raised their budget deficit projections by around $400 billion compared to the winter projections in February.
  • Not all of these outlays are newsworthy for the US Treasury.

CX Daily: Tesla’s Chinese Rival Hits Accelerator on Smart Driving

By Caixin Global

  • BYD / In Depth: Tesla’s Chinese rival hits accelerator on smart driving
  • Fraud /: Fugitive Chinese billionaire Guo Wengui convicted in United States
  • Bonuses /: Mainland financial firms’ Hong Kong units tell staff to repay bonuses

Almost Half of Global GDP Tracking Unevenly

By Thomas Lam

  • My hybrid G3 nowcasting framework harnesses varied inputs from US, Euro Area (both through June) and Japan (mostly through May)
  • Although 2Q 2024 headline GDP growth for the G3 overall is tracking better, 3Q might be soggier   
  • The individual nowcasts imply prospective upside risk for Japan in the near-term, and perhaps emerging downside risk for the US and Euro Area in the offing

ECB: September Cut Not Yet Determined

By Phil Rush

  • The ECB unanimously held its policy rates in July, as widely expected after June’s cut, and refused to pre-commit to any outcome in September.
  • Its policy will depend on the data in the weeks and months ahead, with some policymakers likely to firm up their positions before September’s highlighted meeting.
  • We still expect another cut in September, encouraged by the Fed and BoE also easing policy. However, their premature steps could swiftly require reversals in 2025.

UK: Slow Slackening Progress for Pay

By Phil Rush

  • The UK unemployment rate remained at 4.4% in May as the H1 increases are grinding to a halt in a similar pattern to 2023. Underlying changes are also becoming more neutral.
  • Weekly vacancies data have rebounded to March levels while redundancies remain low and monthly pay growth is consistently annualising above 5%.
  • The dovish BoE can welcome a renewed slowing in the headline wage growth rate despite current levels remaining inconsistent with the inflation target.

ECB Refi Rate 4.25% (consensus 4.25%) in Jul-24

By Heteronomics AI

  • The ECB kept key interest rates unchanged in July, following June’s rate cuts, to manage persistent inflationary pressures while supporting economic recovery.
  • Future interest rate decisions will be data-driven and flexible, avoiding pre-commitments to specific rate paths and based on ongoing assessments of inflation, economic data, and monetary policy transmission.
  • Economic and financial risks, including geopolitical tensions and global trade dynamics, will influence the ECB’s policy adjustments to ensure the stability and effectiveness of monetary policy transmission.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jul 19
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The Outlook of 3Q24 Is Pretty Much In-Line and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The Outlook of 3Q24 Is Pretty Much In-Line, and GM Could Be Better.
  • We See TSMC’s Margins Increasing Much Higher Than Guidance in Long-Term; 2Q24 Shows Apple Ramping Up
  • Kyoto Financial Group (5844 JP) – Limited Shareholdings Unwind, for Now
  • Mount Gibson (MGX AU): Q4 Production Report And Guidance Disappointing, But Mkt Cap = Net Cash
  • American Water Works Company: Initiation of Coverage – PFAS Regulatory Compliance
  • Brookfield Infrastructure Partners (BIP or BIPC) – Wednesday, Apr 17, 2024
  • Ryanair – Pricing Appears to Be Softening; Re-Setting Profitability Expectations
  • MediaTek (2454.TT): 3Q24 Might Grow Slightly QoQ, While AI PCs Could Be Delivered in 2H25.
  • Silversun Technologies Inc (SSNT) – Wednesday, Apr 17, 2024
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (19-Jul-2024): China’s auto exports, 2023.

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The Outlook of 3Q24 Is Pretty Much In-Line, and GM Could Be Better.

By Patrick Liao

  • TSMC expects sales to grow by mid-20% YoY in USD in 2024, compared to low to mid-20% previously.
  • The N3/N5 capacity is very tight, and they are even working with customers for 2026 capacity requirements, while N2 is on track to enter MP in 4Q25.
  • A16 will enter MP in 2H26, and it’s first process starts adopting backside power.

We See TSMC’s Margins Increasing Much Higher Than Guidance in Long-Term; 2Q24 Shows Apple Ramping Up

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Significant revenue guidance hike — TSMC reported 2Q24 results, increasing 2024E revenue growth guidance to exceed ‘mid-20’s’ percent, a significant hike from previous guidance.
  • Management is low-balling LT margins — Latest figures and long-term margin color makes us believe that TSMC will be able to increase GM much higher than current official LT guidance.
  • Signs of Apple expecting strong iPhone 16 sales — TSMC reported strength in smartphone end-applications and we believe this is reflective of Apple ramping up re: stronger iPhone volume expectations.

Kyoto Financial Group (5844 JP) – Limited Shareholdings Unwind, for Now

By Victor Galliano

  • Kyoto Financial’s stakes in three key listed Japanese corporates are valued at over 85% of its market capitalization with its total equity holdings accounting for 130%+ of its market capitalization
  • Kyoto management intends to retain the bulk of the bank’s equity holdings, opposing the growing trend for Japanese listed companies to unwind crossholdings; management will review this policy in November
  • In the near term, we see no major catalyst for Kyoto to accelerate its equity holdings unwind and so, combined with its underwhelming fundamentals, we are negative on Kyoto Financial

Mount Gibson (MGX AU): Q4 Production Report And Guidance Disappointing, But Mkt Cap = Net Cash

By Sameer Taneja

  • Mount Gibson Iron (MGX AU) reported a disappointing Q4 FY24 production report. Volumes were inline, but provisional pricing impacts of ~20% brought a quarterly cash outflow of one mn AUD.
  • Volume guidance for FY25 was light at 2.7-3 mn tons (vs. 4.1 mn in FY24). Net Cash rose to 436 mn AUD (excluding Fenix Investment), almost equaling the market cap. 
  • FY24 results are due on 21st August 2024, when the board will recommend a dividend. Net cash and future cash flows should support the share price in the long run.  

American Water Works Company: Initiation of Coverage – PFAS Regulatory Compliance

By Baptista Research

  • American Water started 2023 with promising financial results, as its earnings per share (EPS) rose from $0.91 to $0.95 compared to the same quarter last year.
  • This increase was anticipated, aligning with the company’s forecast and sustaining its full-year earnings guidance.
  • Noteworthy contributing factors include the $0.02 per share rise stemming from additional interest income, linked to amendments in the seller note related to the HOS sale.

Brookfield Infrastructure Partners (BIP or BIPC) – Wednesday, Apr 17, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Dalrymple Finance report examines financial structure of Brookfield Infrastructure Partners managed by Brookfield Asset Management
  • Report raises concerns about fee maximization practices that may not align with interests of limited partners
  • Comparison with sister entity launched in 2023 highlights flaws in BIP’s financial policies, suggesting a unsustainable pyramid scheme structure

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Ryanair – Pricing Appears to Be Softening; Re-Setting Profitability Expectations

By Neil Glynn

  • Latest fare data suggests an incrementally more concerning trend for Ryanair pricing from June.
  • Concerns over pricing continue to increase in Europe, following Lufthansa’s profit warning last week.
  • We cut our FY25 net income by 9% to €2,289m albeit remain above consensus of €2,170m.

MediaTek (2454.TT): 3Q24 Might Grow Slightly QoQ, While AI PCs Could Be Delivered in 2H25.

By Patrick Liao

  • Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) is forecasted to experience slight growth in 3Q24 compared to 2Q24.  
  • Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US) is expected to introduce AI PCs in 2024, while Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) scheduled for this product is anticipated to delivered in 2H25.  
  • The shipment forecast for the Dimensity 9400 is approximately 5 million sets in 2H24.

Silversun Technologies Inc (SSNT) – Wednesday, Apr 17, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Author admires Brad Jacobs’ entrepreneurial success but questions high valuation of SilverSun Technologies
  • Conversion of SSNT into stake in QXO implies optimistic market capitalization of $46 billion
  • Author remains skeptical of QXO valuation despite Jacobs’ successful track record

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (19-Jul-2024): China’s auto exports, 2023.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • XPeng and Baidu leading China’s autonomous driving technology advancements in 2023
  • Malaysia’s semiconductor sector set for growth in 3Q24 with talent recruitment and AI integration
  • Singtel partners with SK Telecom for 6G and AI innovation, while automakers persist in V2X development efforts

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free