Most Read

There are 13 changes for the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index in June. The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF (00919 TW) has an AUM of US$6.4bn.
One-Way turnover is estimated at 41% and that will result in a round-trip trade of TWD 168.8bn (US$5.2bn). There are 16 stocks that could have over 4x ADV to trade.
The rebalance will be implemented over 8 trading days and the ETF has started trading the stocks last week.

STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance: Index Committee Flip-Flops on Profitability

There are 3 changes for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 9 changes for the STAR100 Index. Implementation will take place at the close on 14 June.
United Nova Technology (688469 CH) and Biwin Storage Technology (688525 CH) were not added at the March rebalance since they were consistently loss-making. But they have been added this time.
United Nova Technology (688469 CH) had been trading poorly and then the stock dropped further after non-inclusion in March. That could change now with inclusion confirmed.

CSI300/CSI500 Index Rebalance: Big Flows and US$5bn Round-Trip Trade

There are 12 changes for the CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) and 50 changes for the CSI Smallcap 500 Index (SH000905 INDEX) in June. Most changes were expected.
There are a lot of stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade. The round-trip trade in June is estimated to be US$5bn.
The adds have outperformed the deletes for both indices but the return profile of a long adds/ short deletes trade for the CSI500 Index is a lot smoother.

CSI All Share Semiconductor Index Rebalance: Lots of Changes in June

The changes to the CSI All Share Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment Index were announced after market close on 31 May and will be implemented at the close on 14 June.
There are 17 adds and 5 deletes for the index.
The adds and deletes have underperformed the index over the last 6 months but the adds have outperformed the deletes over the last 3 months.

CSI All Share IB & Brokerage Index Rebalance: Couple of Large Flow & Impact Names

The changes to the CSI All Share Investment Banking & Brokerage Index were announced after market close on 31 May and will be implemented at the close on 14 June.
Guosen Securities (002736 CH) will be added to the index while Northeast Securities (000686 CH) will be deleted from the index.
There is a lot of flow and impact for both stocks and the stocks could outperform/underperform their peers over the next couple of weeks.

ChiNext/ChiNext 50 Index Rebalance: US$1bn Round-Trip Trade

There are 7 changes for the ChiNext Index (SZ399006 INDEX) and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index at the June rebalance.
We correctly forecast 5/7 and 7/7 for the Chinext Index adds/deletes and were 3/5 and 5/5 for the Chinext50 Index adds/deletes.
Based on the estimated passive tracking AUM, the one-way trade across both indices is estimated to be CNY 3.69bn (US$508m).

Yankuang Energy Placement – Doesn’t Appear Well Flagged Although Deal Size Is Large

By Ethan Aw

Yankuang Energy Group (1171 HK) is looking to raise up to US$608m through a primary follow-on, via selling 270m H-shares.
The deal is a somewhat large one to digest, at 10.6 days of three month ADV and 2.7% of current mcap.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Webtoon Entertainment IPO Preview

Webtoon Entertainment is getting ready to complete its IPO on the NASDAQ exchange in 2H 2024. Webtoon Entertainment is a subsidiary of Naver Corp (035420 KS).
Webtoon is seeking to raise as much of US$500 million at a valuation of US$3 billion to US$4 billion.
Webtoon Entertainment is one of the largest Korean company related IPOs in 2024.

Nagatanien Holdings (2899 JP): Marunouchi Capital-Sponsored MBO at JPY3,100

Nagatanien Holdings (2899 JP) recommended a Marunouchi Capital-sponsored MBO at JPY3,100, a 38.4% premium to the undisturbed price.
The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The offer period is from 4 June to 16 July.
While not a knockout bid, the offer represents a five-year high and requires a 58% minority acceptance rate. This is a done deal with payment commencing from 23 July.

CSI Esoteric Index Rebals Jun 24: All Share Brokerage, China Internet, Medical, Defense, & Livestock

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

We have already discussed our flow expectations for the mainstream indices in the CSI family such as CSI300/500, SSE50/100, and the STAR50/100 for the June 2024 index rebal event.
In this insight, we take a look at our flow expectations for the ADDs/DELs involved in the rebalance of some of the lesser known indices in the CSI family.
The indices covered in this insight are All Share Brokerage, China Internet, Medical Devices, National Defense, and Livestock Breeding indices.

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Jun 03

Most Read: Helios Techno Holding, Teijin Ltd, Beijing Strong Biotechnolo-A, ZX, Vanguard Intl Semiconductor, United Nova Technology , Bank of Communications , Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering-A, Biwin Storage Technology Lt, Hanwha Ocean and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Helios Techno Holding (6927) – Small TOB, Fat Premium (74%), Still Too Cheap
Teijin (3401 JP): Alternative Play on the Potential Infocom Tender
CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance: Adds Could Outperform Deletes in the Coming Week
KWEB Index Rebalance: ZX (9890 HK) In; Fenbi (2469 HK) Out
TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebalance: 13 Changes & US$5.2bn Round-Trip Trade
STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance: Index Committee Flip-Flops on Profitability
SSE50/SSE180 Index Rebalance: Heavy Focus on Sector Balance
Quiddity CSI 300/500 Jun 24 Rebalance: 92% Hit Rate; US$3.7 One-Way Flows
CES China Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance: Adding to Impact for Some Stocks
Hanwha Ocean’s June 22 Release of a 1.68% Stake Grabs Local Market Attention

Helios Techno Holding (6927) – Small TOB, Fat Premium (74%), Still Too Cheap

On Friday, acquisitive wafer technology firm Rs Technologies (3445 JP) announced it would buy lamp and printing equipment maker Helios Techno Holding (6927 JP) at a 74% premium.
The premium is big, but Helios is a steal at the price. Granted, it is a small potatoes steal.
The register is not controlled by any one party or group of investors other than retail. That makes this interesting.

Teijin (3401 JP): Alternative Play on the Potential Infocom Tender

Blackstone (BX US) is widely reported to have agreed to acquire Teijin Ltd (3401 JP)’s 55% stake in Infocom Corp (4348 JP) at a valuation of JPY260 billion.
If the valuation refers to market cap and Teijin shares its tax benefits, Teijin’s sale proceeds are around JPY128 billion, which is 42% of its market cap.
However, since 9 May, Teijin shares have been flat vs. Infocom shares are up 63%. Teijin’s medium-term plan suggests that the Infocom proceeds could result in substantial share buybacks.

CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance: Adds Could Outperform Deletes in the Coming Week

CSI announced the changes for the June rebalance after market close on 31 May and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 14 June.
There are 5 adds/deletes – we correctly forecasted 3 adds and all 5 deletes. Passives need to trade 0.5-3x ADV on the adds and 0.5-2.1x ADV on the deletes.
With the index not very widely forecasted, the adds could outperform the deletes over the next week in a repeat of the performance at the December rebalance.

KWEB Index Rebalance: ZX (9890 HK) In; Fenbi (2469 HK) Out

ZX (9890 HK) will replace Fenbi Ltd (2469 HK) in the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB US) at the close on 14 June.
There will be over 6 days of ADV to sell in Fenbi Ltd (2469 HK) and we estimate over 2 days of ADV to buy in ZX (9890 HK).
There are other ETFs that track very similar indices and there could be a lot more to trade in the stocks at the close on 14 June.

TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebalance: 13 Changes & US$5.2bn Round-Trip Trade

There are 13 changes for the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index in June. The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF (00919 TW) has an AUM of US$6.4bn.
One-Way turnover is estimated at 41% and that will result in a round-trip trade of TWD 168.8bn (US$5.2bn). There are 16 stocks that could have over 4x ADV to trade.
The rebalance will be implemented over 8 trading days and the ETF has started trading the stocks last week.

STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance: Index Committee Flip-Flops on Profitability

There are 3 changes for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 9 changes for the STAR100 Index. Implementation will take place at the close on 14 June.
United Nova Technology (688469 CH) and Biwin Storage Technology (688525 CH) were not added at the March rebalance since they were consistently loss-making. But they have been added this time.
United Nova Technology (688469 CH) had been trading poorly and then the stock dropped further after non-inclusion in March. That could change now with inclusion confirmed.

SSE50/SSE180 Index Rebalance: Heavy Focus on Sector Balance

There are 5 changes for the SSE50 Index (SSE50 INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 14 June. There is over 1x ADV to trade on most stocks.
The index committee has focused on sector balance with higher ranked stocks from the Financials sector ignored and lower ranked stocks from other sectors included.
The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last 6 months and positioning (especially on the surprises) could lead to further upside for a long/short trade.

Quiddity CSI 300/500 Jun 24 Rebalance: 92% Hit Rate; US$3.7 One-Way Flows

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The June 2024 index review results for China’s CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices were announced after market close on Friday 31st May 2024.
There will be 12 changes in CSI 300 and 50 changes in CSI 500 which could collectively cause one-way index flows of ~US$3.7bn during the June 2024 index rebal event.
Compared to Quiddity’s final expectations, 114 out of the 124 index changes (both ways) were correct translating to a hit rate of 92%.

CES China Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance: Adding to Impact for Some Stocks

There are 4 changes for the CES China Semiconductor Chips Index that will be implemented at the close on 14 June.
Biwin Storage Technology Lt (688525 CH) and Beijing Yandong Microelectroni (688172 CH) are also inclusions to other indices too and the multiple flows will increase the impact on the stocks.
The adds have underperformed the deletes. If things go the way of the December rebalance, a long adds/ short deletes trade could do well from now to implementation.

Hanwha Ocean’s June 22 Release of a 1.68% Stake Grabs Local Market Attention

The June 22 lock-up release, involving a 1.68% stake by Eximbank, is drawing attention, with concerns these shares might hit the market immediately, impacting prices significantly.
Eximbank is likely to sell its shares quickly post-lock-up, fueling speculation and potential market reactions, as their focus is on financial stability, not long-term holdings.
The 1.68% block deal could significantly impact Hanwha Ocean’s price, similar to last year’s 6.4% drop after a smaller block deal announcement by the Korean Financial Services Commission.

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Jun 02

Most Read: Infocom Corp, Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings, Greatview Aseptic Packaging, Hanwha Ocean , BHP Group Ltd, Mitsui Matsushima, China Yangtze Power Co, Ltd. and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Infocom (4348 JP): Blackstone’s Rumoured JPY260bn Bid to Acquire Teijin’s Stake
SG Holdings to Launch TOB on C&F Logistics (9099) At A Whopping ¥5,740/Share – HUGE Governance Win
Chilled & Frozen Logistics (9099 JP): SG Holdings’ Stunning JPY5,740 Offer
GAPack (468 HK): Shandong Xinjufeng Offer Progesses
End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 45 Companies in Korea in June 2024
Portfolio Watch – Adjusting equity and commodity risks as the reflation story stalls
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Huafa Prop, Asia Cement, QV Equities, Sciclone, Chilled & Frozen Logistics
Weekly Deals Digest (02 Jun) – Infocom, CF Logistics, Asia Cement, GA Pack, Huafa, Shift Up
Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Matsushima, China Merchants,Kansai Paint, Teijin, Sciclone Pharma
Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 31 May 2024): Net Sell Flows on Weak Gross Volumes

Infocom (4348 JP): Blackstone’s Rumoured JPY260bn Bid to Acquire Teijin’s Stake

Bloomberg reports that Blackstone (BX US) has agreed to acquire Teijin Ltd (3401 JP)’s 55% stake in Infocom Corp (4348 JP) at a rumoured valuation of JPY260 billion.
The potential minority offer price depends on whether the rumoured valuation refers to market cap or enterprise value and whether Teijin will share TOB tax benefits.
The most likely scenario is that the valuation refers to the market cap, with Teijin sharing TOB tax benefits, resulting in a minority offer of around JPY5,720 per share.

SG Holdings to Launch TOB on C&F Logistics (9099) At A Whopping ¥5,740/Share – HUGE Governance Win

Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP) was near an all-time high in late March when it closed at ¥2,041 the day AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP) bid ¥3,000/share.
That was hostile, and C&F’s Board reacted swiftly, looking for a market check and competitive process. It got one. It was VERY successful in getting the best bid.
SG Holdings (9143 JP) has bid ¥5,740 – a very full multiple and 91% higher than AZ-Com’s price. I don’t expect an overbidder. Huge governance win for Japan minorities.

Chilled & Frozen Logistics (9099 JP): SG Holdings’ Stunning JPY5,740 Offer

Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP) has recommended SG Holdings (9143 JP)’s JPY5,740 tender offer, a 91.3% premium to AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP)’s JPY3,000 hostile offer.
SG Holdings’ offer premium is stupendous. However, the offer values C&F at a CY2024 EV/EBITDA of 27.2x vs. Alps Logistics (9055 JP) offer at a CY2024 EV/EBITDA of 29.2x.
The Board deserves credit. AZ-COM Maruwa is unlikely to engage in a bidding war as SG Holding’s offer has the Board’s recommendation and comes with a hefty takeover premium.

GAPack (468 HK): Shandong Xinjufeng Offer Progesses

On the 9th May, Shandong Xinjufeng (301296 CH) (XJF) made a pre-conditional voluntary general Offer at $2.65/share (best & final), contingent on a 50% acceptance. Final/special dividends to be added.
GAPack(468 HK) has made it clear that XJF is a competitor of GAPack. And Mengniu (2319 HK) may review its relationship if pre-cons are satisfied/waived; or the Offer gets up.
XJF has announced the necessary applications have been sent to NDRC, MoC, and SAMR; and it prepping for a shareholder meeting to approve the Offer.

End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 45 Companies in Korea in June 2024

We discuss the end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 45 stocks in Korea in June 2024, among which 5 are in KOSPI and 40 are in KOSDAQ.
These 45 stocks on average could be subject to further selling pressures in June and could underperform relative to the market.
The top three market cap stocks including those of which at least 1% of outstanding shares could be sold in June include Hanwha Ocean, LS Materials, and Komico.

Portfolio Watch – Adjusting equity and commodity risks as the reflation story stalls

By Andreas Steno

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly portfolio watch, where we shed light on the most important factors driving our Macro and Crypto portfolio over the past week.
Macro Portfolio – Reflation bets have lost momentumWe have been banging the drum on a combination of slightly higher prices and a continuation of the rebound in manufacturing on a more global scale, placing bets in broad commodities and cyclical equities like Materials.
The recent rally in BCOM has however been put to a halt over the past week, and it looks like we are in for a smaller correction in industrial metals, where clustering risks have turned more profound in copper and silver especially, as right about everyone has placed longs in the copper July contract.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Huafa Prop, Asia Cement, QV Equities, Sciclone, Chilled & Frozen Logistics

I tally 51 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week:Huafa Property Services Group (982 HK)‘s Scheme. Asia Cement China (743 HK) also suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code.
Key updates took place on: QV Equities (QVE AU), Boral (BLD AU), Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK), Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK), and Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP).

Weekly Deals Digest (02 Jun) – Infocom, CF Logistics, Asia Cement, GA Pack, Huafa, Shift Up

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Shift Up (462870 KS) seeks to raise up to US$320 million.
Event-Driven developments: Asia Cement China (743 HK), Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK), Huafa Property Services Group (982 HK), Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP), Infocom Corp (4348 JP).

Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Matsushima, China Merchants,Kansai Paint, Teijin, Sciclone Pharma

Colour me perplexed. Murakami Group ran up Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP)‘s share price in acquiring 29%. The pattern was clear, but one assumes everyone in-group was on the same page.
Two activist shareholders. And long only upping its stake. Heavily discounted China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK) is in play.
A HUGE new buyback for Kansai Paint (4613 JP). Really big. Buy Kansai Paint vs Nippon Paint. One can buy the pop. One can buy any dips after the pop.

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 31 May 2024): Net Sell Flows on Weak Gross Volumes

The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 5.7bn of A-shares on lower gross volumes. NORTHBOUND bought Zijin, Yangtze Power, and renewables and sold SOEs.
Ongoing questions as to whether the NORTHBOUND volumes to the buy side are all foreigners. Some suspect there is national team buying mixed in, as was expected from earlier announcements.

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Jun 01

Most Read: Infocom Corp, Shift Up, Legend Holdings Corp H, Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings, Greatview Aseptic Packaging, Hanwha Ocean , Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Mitsubishi Motors and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Infocom (4348 JP) – Reports of an Exclusive Negotiation May Give Hints
Shift Up IPO: Valuation Insights
How to Own Lenovo at a Discount: BUY Legend Holdings Corp (3396 HK)
SG Holdings to Launch TOB on C&F Logistics (9099) At A Whopping ¥5,740/Share – HUGE Governance Win
GAPack (468 HK): Shandong Xinjufeng Offer Progesses
Infocom (4348 JP): Blackstone’s Rumoured JPY260bn Bid to Acquire Teijin’s Stake
End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 45 Companies in Korea in June 2024
Chilled & Frozen Logistics (9099 JP): SG Holdings’ Stunning JPY5,740 Offer
Hot Topic Among Local Institutions in Recent Days: Utilizing COE in Value-Up Investing
Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2024: End-May 2024 Estimates

Infocom (4348 JP) – Reports of an Exclusive Negotiation May Give Hints

The entire saga here of Teijin Ltd (3401 JP)‘s disposal of its 55.1% stake in Infocom Corp (4348 JP) is being played out in the non-generally-public press.
There is reportedly a new piece of writing out late Thursday which suggests an approach.
I wrote about the “meaning” of words in Infocom (4348 JP) – The Meaning of ‘Binding Bids’ and ‘¥250bn’ and now there is more nuance to parse.

Shift Up IPO: Valuation Insights

Shift Up (462870 KS) is Korea’s leading game development studio. It is seeking to raise up to US$320 million.
We previously discussed the IPO in Shift Up IPO: The Investment Case.
We examine the syndicate’s valuation methodology. Our analysis suggests that Shift Up is attractively valued in the IPO price range. We would participate in the IPO.

How to Own Lenovo at a Discount: BUY Legend Holdings Corp (3396 HK)

By David Mudd

Legend Holdings Corp H (3396 HK) owns 31% of Lenovo (992 HK) , the number one global PC maker
Lenovo is a leader selling AI enabled PC’s globally. Its server business is growing rapidly through strong demand for generative AI. Legend is the leading AI seed investor in China.
Technical pattern strong for Lenovo reaching a 9 year high. Legend showing increasing momentum from an historic trough valuation level

SG Holdings to Launch TOB on C&F Logistics (9099) At A Whopping ¥5,740/Share – HUGE Governance Win

Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP) was near an all-time high in late March when it closed at ¥2,041 the day AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP) bid ¥3,000/share.
That was hostile, and C&F’s Board reacted swiftly, looking for a market check and competitive process. It got one. It was VERY successful in getting the best bid.
SG Holdings (9143 JP) has bid ¥5,740 – a very full multiple and 91% higher than AZ-Com’s price. I don’t expect an overbidder. Huge governance win for Japan minorities.

GAPack (468 HK): Shandong Xinjufeng Offer Progesses

On the 9th May, Shandong Xinjufeng (301296 CH) (XJF) made a pre-conditional voluntary general Offer at $2.65/share (best & final), contingent on a 50% acceptance. Final/special dividends to be added.
GAPack(468 HK) has made it clear that XJF is a competitor of GAPack. And Mengniu (2319 HK) may review its relationship if pre-cons are satisfied/waived; or the Offer gets up.
XJF has announced the necessary applications have been sent to NDRC, MoC, and SAMR; and it prepping for a shareholder meeting to approve the Offer.

Infocom (4348 JP): Blackstone’s Rumoured JPY260bn Bid to Acquire Teijin’s Stake

Bloomberg reports that Blackstone (BX US) has agreed to acquire Teijin Ltd (3401 JP)’s 55% stake in Infocom Corp (4348 JP) at a rumoured valuation of JPY260 billion.
The potential minority offer price depends on whether the rumoured valuation refers to market cap or enterprise value and whether Teijin will share TOB tax benefits.
The most likely scenario is that the valuation refers to the market cap, with Teijin sharing TOB tax benefits, resulting in a minority offer of around JPY5,720 per share.

End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 45 Companies in Korea in June 2024

We discuss the end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 45 stocks in Korea in June 2024, among which 5 are in KOSPI and 40 are in KOSDAQ.
These 45 stocks on average could be subject to further selling pressures in June and could underperform relative to the market.
The top three market cap stocks including those of which at least 1% of outstanding shares could be sold in June include Hanwha Ocean, LS Materials, and Komico.

Chilled & Frozen Logistics (9099 JP): SG Holdings’ Stunning JPY5,740 Offer

Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP) has recommended SG Holdings (9143 JP)’s JPY5,740 tender offer, a 91.3% premium to AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP)’s JPY3,000 hostile offer.
SG Holdings’ offer premium is stupendous. However, the offer values C&F at a CY2024 EV/EBITDA of 27.2x vs. Alps Logistics (9055 JP) offer at a CY2024 EV/EBITDA of 29.2x.
The Board deserves credit. AZ-COM Maruwa is unlikely to engage in a bidding war as SG Holding’s offer has the Board’s recommendation and comes with a hefty takeover premium.

Hot Topic Among Local Institutions in Recent Days: Utilizing COE in Value-Up Investing

Local institutional investors were disappointed Kiwoom omitted COE from their value-up disclosure. They seek clearer plans to address low-yield assets and reduce COE.
Rapidly rising interest in COE among local institutional investors is now shaping the screening criteria for the Korea Exchange’s value-up index, possibly using COE as a primary factor for inclusion.
Competition likely centers on selecting and weighting stocks, including those beyond KOSPI 200. Key metric: COE linked with ROE.

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2024: End-May 2024 Estimates

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents.
A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. We look at the rankings of the potential ADDs/DELs every month.
In this insight, we take a look at potential ADDs/DELs for the JPX-Nikkei 400 index rebal event to come in August 2024 based on trading data as of end-May 2024.

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May 31

Most Read: Vanguard Intl Semiconductor, Exedy Corp, Infocom Corp, Mitsui Matsushima, SK Bioscience , SK Inc, Kansai Paint, Shift Up, Zomato, Shinsegae and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebalance Preview: AUM Jump & HUGE Trade
Exedy (7278) Huge Offering Resized – Watch the Dynamics Here
Infocom (4348 JP) – Reports of an Exclusive Negotiation May Give Hints
JAPAN ACTIVISM: Murakami-Père Ran Up Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP), Now Murakami-Fille Selling Down
Block Deal Prospects Arising from SK Group’s Corporate Reshuffle
Detailed Summary of Today’s Second Trial Ruling in Chey Tae-Won’s Divorce Case Involving SK Inc
Kansai Paint (4613) – Going Hard with a BIG Buyback and More Capital Moves Beyond
Shift Up IPO: Valuation Insights
Zomato Placement Lockup Expiry – US$800m Overhang
Legal Complications on Put Options on SSG.Com to Result in Ongoing Concerns for Emart and Shinsegae

TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebalance Preview: AUM Jump & HUGE Trade

The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF (00919 TW) tracks the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index and has an AUM of TWD 209bn (US$6.5bn).
There could be 14 changes for the ETF in June with an estimated one-way turnover of around 40% and a round-trip trade of around US$5bn.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last couple of months and there could be more to go heading into announcement and implementation.

Exedy (7278) Huge Offering Resized – Watch the Dynamics Here

On Monday 27 May, Aisin (7259 JP) announced an offering to sell ALL of its 36+% stake in equity affiliate Exedy Corp (7278 JP) for likely ¥40bn+.
Exedy announced a big buyback to go with it. It bought back 30% of the total on Weds morning, and that reduced the size of the offer.
I had expected “short-term games” but we haven’t really had them. Which is a bit weird. This update shows the details and dynamics (they differ).

Infocom (4348 JP) – Reports of an Exclusive Negotiation May Give Hints

The entire saga here of Teijin Ltd (3401 JP)‘s disposal of its 55.1% stake in Infocom Corp (4348 JP) is being played out in the non-generally-public press.
There is reportedly a new piece of writing out late Thursday which suggests an approach.
I wrote about the “meaning” of words in Infocom (4348 JP) – The Meaning of ‘Binding Bids’ and ‘¥250bn’ and now there is more nuance to parse.

JAPAN ACTIVISM: Murakami-Père Ran Up Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP), Now Murakami-Fille Selling Down

Colour me perplexed. Murakami Group ran up Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP)‘s share price in acquiring 29%. The pattern was clear, but one assumes everyone in-group was on the same page.
The earliest buyer was NOMURA Aya. She bought early, slowly, then aggressively, then onshore buyers bought aggressively at higher prices. But she has now sold 6 days straight.
The pattern is confusing but it will become clearer in coming days.

Block Deal Prospects Arising from SK Group’s Corporate Reshuffle

The declining appeal of the separator business prompts SK to seek buyers for SKIET through block deals amid financial pressures. The first deal is anticipated despite recent stock price drops.
SK Ecoplant looks to sell its 37.6% stake in SK Oceanplant. Negotiations stall over the former major shareholder’s 20% stake, prompting consideration of a block deal.
SK Bioscience, under SK Discovery, faces possible sale amid SK’s bio company reshuffle. SK Chemicals may bring SK Biopharm under its wing to help SK Inc focus on semiconductors/batteries.

Detailed Summary of Today’s Second Trial Ruling in Chey Tae-Won’s Divorce Case Involving SK Inc

The first trial in December 2022 ordered Chey to pay 67.5 billion KRW; today’s ruling increased this to 1.38 trillion KRW plus 2 billion KRW, including splitting SK Inc. shares.
The increased settlement and SK Inc. share split could spark a management rights battle, causing SK Inc.’s stock price to jump as investors and shareholders react.
It may take a year for the final verdict, making a sustained stock price increase unlikely. Yet, differences between trial rulings could alter Chey’s SK Inc. stake, sustaining market interest.

Kansai Paint (4613) – Going Hard with a BIG Buyback and More Capital Moves Beyond

24mos ago, Kansai Paint (4613 JP) announced a new MTMP, a large buyback, and plans to unwind cross-holdings. Big. 15mos ago a large secondary offering kicked off the festivities.
Key was Toyota sold. Then KP could sell its Toyota shares – two-thirds of its cross-holdings. The offering was one to buy. A buyback followed. KP vs Nippon Paint doubled.
KP offered a CB recently with the delta hedge done by TN-3. Now there is a HUGE new buyback. Really big. This gets rid of more cross-holders. And there’s more.

Shift Up IPO: Valuation Insights

Shift Up (462870 KS) is Korea’s leading game development studio. It is seeking to raise up to US$320 million.
We previously discussed the IPO in Shift Up IPO: The Investment Case.
We examine the syndicate’s valuation methodology. Our analysis suggests that Shift Up is attractively valued in the IPO price range. We would participate in the IPO.

Zomato Placement Lockup Expiry – US$800m Overhang

By Sumeet Singh

Antfin will come out of its placement linked lockup for its remaining stake in Zomato soon.
Ant Group had earlier sold some of its stake in Nov 2023 and Mar 2024. It still has over US$800m worth of shares left to sell.
In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Legal Complications on Put Options on SSG.Com to Result in Ongoing Concerns for Emart and Shinsegae

Emart and Shinsegae are facing concerns about put options of nearly 1 trillion won on private equity investors’ investment in SSG.com nearly six years ago.
From AEP and BRV’s point of views, they want to get their money back through put options since an IPO is not likely in the near term.
The most probable result appears to be that this is likely to be dragged on for some time, which will cause continued concerns on both Emart and Shinsegae.

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May 30

Most Read: Square Enix Holdings, Baidu , Deep Yellow Ltd, Asia Cement China, Vanguard Intl Semiconductor, Mitsui Matsushima, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, SK Bioscience , Cummins India and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Japan – Another Big Round of Passive Selling
Baidu: Priced to Fail
S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Regular & Ad Hoc Changes in June
Asia Cement (743 HK): Parent’s Ready-Mixed Offer?
TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebalance Preview: AUM Jump & HUGE Trade
Asia Cement China (743 HK): Privatisation by Asia Cement?
JAPAN ACTIVISM: Murakami-Père Ran Up Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP), Now Murakami-Fille Selling Down
Latest Info on Value-Up Index Involving KRX & NPS: Potential Flow Trading Patterns
Block Deal Prospects Arising from SK Group’s Corporate Reshuffle
NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 49% Turnover; US$850m Trade; Election Results Coming

Japan – Another Big Round of Passive Selling

There are 15 stocks in Japan that will be sold by passive trackers at the close on 31 May.
Short interest has been increasing in these stocks over the last few months and there will be covering on implementation date.
Cumulative excess volume on all stocks has risen in the last couple of months though the pace of the increase has varied.

Baidu: Priced to Fail

By Wium Malan, CFA

Since late 2020, Search’s share of digital advertising revenue has stabilised at around 8-10%, seemingly retaining its core advertising customers and industries.
Baidu management expects AI Cloud to maintain strong revenue growth momentum in the upcoming quarters.
Baidu trades on a 3.6x NTM EV/EBITDA multiple, well below one standard deviation lower than its 5-year historical average trading range and the lowest it has ever been.

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Regular & Ad Hoc Changes in June

With the review period complete, we take a look at the potential index changes at the June rebalance as well as potential index inclusions due to M&A.
Timing is key for the ad hoc inclusions to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) with an ad hoc inclusion being announced prior to the regular announcement.
Passive trackers will need to buy 1.3-27x ADV on the expected adds and have 0.8-4.7x ADV to sell on the expected deletes. Shorts have built up on the potential deletes.

Asia Cement (743 HK): Parent’s Ready-Mixed Offer?

Chinese cement play Asia Cement China (743 HK) (ACC) is currently suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code.
Asia Cement (1102 TT) has been ACC’s majority shareholder since its 2008 IPO. Asia Cement currently holds 73.07%.
Shares gained ~50% this week. On serious volume. With net cash of US$1.03bn vs. a market cap of US$66mn, a privatisation should command a punchy premium to the last close.

TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebalance Preview: AUM Jump & HUGE Trade

The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF (00919 TW) tracks the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index and has an AUM of TWD 209bn (US$6.5bn).
There could be 14 changes for the ETF in June with an estimated one-way turnover of around 40% and a round-trip trade of around US$5bn.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last couple of months and there could be more to go heading into announcement and implementation.

Asia Cement China (743 HK): Privatisation by Asia Cement?

Asia Cement China (743 HK) entered a trading halt based on the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers. Bloomberg reports that Asia Cement (1102 TT) is considering a buyout.
Privatisation interest is unsurprising, as ACC’s EV has been negative since 6 July 2022 due to headwinds from the weak Chinese property sector and uncertainty about cash use.
An offer price of HK$5.18 would imply a zero EV. However, due to the difficult trading conditions, we think an offer would be around HK$4.00 per share.

JAPAN ACTIVISM: Murakami-Père Ran Up Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP), Now Murakami-Fille Selling Down

Colour me perplexed. Murakami Group ran up Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP)‘s share price in acquiring 29%. The pattern was clear, but one assumes everyone in-group was on the same page.
The earliest buyer was NOMURA Aya. She bought early, slowly, then aggressively, then onshore buyers bought aggressively at higher prices. But she has now sold 6 days straight.
The pattern is confusing but it will become clearer in coming days.

Latest Info on Value-Up Index Involving KRX & NPS: Potential Flow Trading Patterns

The value-up index aims to align closely with the KOSPI 200’s composition, adjusting stock weights based on factors from KRX Governance Leaders 100 and KRX ESG Dividend Opportunities Index.
Insiders confirm NPS will create new funds to track the value-up index, needing SAA adjustments and Fund Management Committee approval. Despite hurdles, government backing suggests smooth NPS involvement.
Buybacks could cause passive outflows in KOSPI 200 rebalancing and inflows in value-up index rebalancing. This timing discrepancy could create a consistent passive flow pattern for these stocks.

Block Deal Prospects Arising from SK Group’s Corporate Reshuffle

The declining appeal of the separator business prompts SK to seek buyers for SKIET through block deals amid financial pressures. The first deal is anticipated despite recent stock price drops.
SK Ecoplant looks to sell its 37.6% stake in SK Oceanplant. Negotiations stall over the former major shareholder’s 20% stake, prompting consideration of a block deal.
SK Bioscience, under SK Discovery, faces possible sale amid SK’s bio company reshuffle. SK Chemicals may bring SK Biopharm under its wing to help SK Inc focus on semiconductors/batteries.

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 49% Turnover; US$850m Trade; Election Results Coming

There could be 13 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 48.8% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 35.5bn (US$426m).
Since January, the potential adds to the index have outperformed the potential deletes by a big margin. Watch out for the general election results on 4 June for momentum change.

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May 29

Most Read: Kokusai Electric , Exedy Corp, Asia Vital Components, AU Optronics, Huafa Property Services Group, Deep Yellow Ltd, Barito Renewables Energy, Celltrion Inc, Asmedia Technology and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Kokusai Elec (6525) – The Much-Anticipated Lockup Expiry
Cash-Rich Exedy (7278) Sees Huge Offering Offset by Huge Buyback – Watch For Short-Term Games
Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Asia Vital Components (3017 TT) In Back-To-Back Inclusion?
Yuanta Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 5 Changes as Names Move Around; US$2.35bn Round-Trip Trade
ASMedia GDR Early Look – Momentum Has Been Strong, and Raising Would Grow Its Cash Base Almost 6x
Huafa Property Services (982 HK)’s Knockout Offer
S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Regular & Ad Hoc Changes in June
Barito Renewables Lockup Expiry – US$8bn Lockup Expiry for Largest Indonesian Market Cap Stock
FnGuide Top 5 Plus Index Rebalance Preview: Celltrion Could Replace KT&G
ASMedia GDR Offering – Well Flagged, and Momentum Has Been Strong Leading into the Offering

Kokusai Elec (6525) – The Much-Anticipated Lockup Expiry

Last autumn, Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) was IPOed by KKR. The lockup expires next week, on 21 April 2024 (a Sunday). That frees up about 70% of the stock.
KKR’s own stake is worth about US$2.8bn. It is not clear that Applied Materials, Qatar, or the Koch Strategic Platforms stakes would be for sale (now, or near-term).
There is an interesting schedule of events between here and a likely offering date. It pays to pay attention to the details.

Cash-Rich Exedy (7278) Sees Huge Offering Offset by Huge Buyback – Watch For Short-Term Games

Toyota equity affiliate Aisin (7259 JP) last September said it would sell all its crossholdings. That now includes a 36.5% stake in Exedy Corp (7278 JP).
Today, they announced an offering of all the shares (when including the greenshoe). That is nearly ¥50bn. That is offset by a ¥15bn buyback which could reduce the offering size.
Games may be played, but there is considerable accretion, and Exedy will see higher float and still-high net cash.

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Asia Vital Components (3017 TT) In Back-To-Back Inclusion?

Asia Vital Components (3017 TT) could replace Chang Hwa Commercial Bank (2801 TT) in the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF at the June rebalance.
This ETF inclusion for Asia Vital Components (3017 TT) could come back-to-back with another index inclusion scheduled for the end of May.
Shorts in Asia Vital Components (3017 TT) have been increasing recently while shorts in Chang Hwa Commercial Bank (2801 TT) are near their lows.

Yuanta Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 5 Changes as Names Move Around; US$2.35bn Round-Trip Trade

With the review period now complete, there could be 5 changes to the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June.
Price changes and changes to dividend estimates have led to names dropping off the list of potential adds and deletes over the last week.
Constituent changes, capping and funding flows will lead to a one-way turnover of 12.7% and a one-way trade of US$1.17bn. There are 12 stocks with over 4x ADV to trade.

ASMedia GDR Early Look – Momentum Has Been Strong, and Raising Would Grow Its Cash Base Almost 6x

Asmedia Technology (5269 TT) is looking to raise up to US$333m in its upcoming global depository receipts (GDRs) offering.
ASMedia recently announced its board’s resolution to offer between 4.3-5.3m shares in the form of GDRs, with the proceeds geared towards purchasing raw materials and machinery, R&D and working capital.
Similar to previous GDR listings, the deal is a long drawn out process with the firm required to jump through a number of board/shareholder/regulatory approval loops.

Huafa Property Services (982 HK)’s Knockout Offer

After entering a trading halt on the 16th May pursuant to the Takeover’s Code, property manager Huafa Property Services (982 HK) has now announced a privatisation by way of a Scheme.
The cancellation price of A$0.29/share is a 30.63% to last close, a 70.59% premium over the 30-day average close, and a life-time high price. The price is final.
The Offeror, Zhuhai Huafa, a state-owned enterprise wholly-owned by Zhuhai SASAC, plus concert parties hold 42.63% of shares out. Clean deal.

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Regular & Ad Hoc Changes in June

With the review period complete, we take a look at the potential index changes at the June rebalance as well as potential index inclusions due to M&A.
Timing is key for the ad hoc inclusions to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) with an ad hoc inclusion being announced prior to the regular announcement.
Passive trackers will need to buy 1.3-27x ADV on the expected adds and have 0.8-4.7x ADV to sell on the expected deletes. Shorts have built up on the potential deletes.

Barito Renewables Lockup Expiry – US$8bn Lockup Expiry for Largest Indonesian Market Cap Stock

By Ethan Aw

Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ) raised around US$200m in its Indonesian IPO, after pricing at the top end at IDR780/share. Its eight-month lockup will expire on 29th May 2024.
Barito Renewables (BR) is Indonesia’s largest geothermal power producer, and the third-largest globally by installed capacity, as per the firm.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

FnGuide Top 5 Plus Index Rebalance Preview: Celltrion Could Replace KT&G

The Samsung KODEX Top5Plus Total Return ETF (315930 KS) tracks the FnGuide Top 5 Plus Index and has an AUM of KRW 1,357bn (~US$1bn).
We currently see a high probability of Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) replacing KT&G Corporation (033780 KS) in the index at the June rebalance.
There is between 1-2 days of ADV to trade on the potential add and delete and smaller flows on the other index members due to capping and funding changes.

ASMedia GDR Offering – Well Flagged, and Momentum Has Been Strong Leading into the Offering

Asmedia Technology (5269 TT) is looking to raise up to US$335m in its global depository receipts (GDRs) offering.
Overall, the deal would be a relatively small one for the stock to digest at just 5.6 days of its three month ADV.
In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

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May 28

Most Read: Exedy Corp, Infocom Corp, S.M.Entertainment Co, COSCO SHIPPING Holdings , Alibaba Group Holding , AU Optronics, Huafa Property Services Group, China Merchants China Direct Investments and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Cash-Rich Exedy (7278) Sees Huge Offering Offset by Huge Buyback – Watch For Short-Term Games
Infocom (4348 JP) – The Meaning of ‘Binding Bids’ and ‘¥250bn’
HYBE: Block Deal Sale of SM Entertainment
Offshore China ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in June; Cutoff Today
Alibaba/JD.com: Thoughts On The Recent Convertible Bond Issuance
Exedy Corporation Placement – Relatively Large One, Although Buyback Should Aid Share Price
Yuanta Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 5 Changes as Names Move Around; US$2.35bn Round-Trip Trade
Huafa Property Services (982 HK)’s Knockout Offer
Activism Takes On CMCDI (133 HK)
Huafa Property Services (982 HK): Scheme Offer at HK$0.29

Cash-Rich Exedy (7278) Sees Huge Offering Offset by Huge Buyback – Watch For Short-Term Games

Toyota equity affiliate Aisin (7259 JP) last September said it would sell all its crossholdings. That now includes a 36.5% stake in Exedy Corp (7278 JP).
Today, they announced an offering of all the shares (when including the greenshoe). That is nearly ¥50bn. That is offset by a ¥15bn buyback which could reduce the offering size.
Games may be played, but there is considerable accretion, and Exedy will see higher float and still-high net cash.

Infocom (4348 JP) – The Meaning of ‘Binding Bids’ and ‘¥250bn’

A variety of articles of recent from private media sources have suggested that Teijin Ltd (3401 JP) has its 55% stake in Infocom Corp (4348 JP) up for auction.
According to earlier articles, binding Second Round bids were due last week. According to an article out late last week, binding bids have been made, with some “around ¥250bn.”
What that means for price may depend on what the “around ¥250bn” means. A brief exploration below.

HYBE: Block Deal Sale of SM Entertainment

After the market close on 27 May, HYBE (352820 KS) announced that it will conduct a block deal sale of 0.75 million to 0.94 million shares of SM Entertainment.
The block deal sale price discount is 4% to 5.5% discount to the closing price on 27 May (95,800 won).
One of the major positive, recent issues facing the Korean K-Pop related stocks has been the potential easing of Korean content restrictions by China.

Offshore China ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in June; Cutoff Today

Based on the close of 24 May, there could be three changes for the iShares A50 China (2823 HK)/ CSOP China A50 (HKD) (2822 HK) in June.
COSCO SHIPPING (601919 CH), CRRC (601766 CH) and China National NuclearPower (601985 CH) could replace LONGi GreenEnergy (601012 CH), CSC Financial (601066 CH) and China Tourism Group DutyFree (601888 CH).
There are a couple of stocks that are close adds and could become adds if they outperform higher ranked stocks in trading today.

Alibaba/JD.com: Thoughts On The Recent Convertible Bond Issuance

By Steve Zhou, CFA

Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) and JD.com (9618 HK) both announced the issuance of convertible debt last week (Alibaba on May 23 and JD.com on May 21).
Both have mentioned that the reasons for the issuance are the low funding cost (0.25% coupon for JD.com and 0.5% for Alibaba) and to fund their current share repurchase program.
I think the convertible debt structures makes sense and it is beneficial for both companies to buy back as much as possible at the current share price.

Exedy Corporation Placement – Relatively Large One, Although Buyback Should Aid Share Price

Aisin (7259 JP) is looking to raise US$290m from selling its entire stake in Exedy Corp (7278 JP).
While the selldown doesn’t seem to be particularly well-flagged, this appears to be another cross-shareholder unwind in Japan.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Yuanta Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 5 Changes as Names Move Around; US$2.35bn Round-Trip Trade

With the review period now complete, there could be 5 changes to the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June.
Price changes and changes to dividend estimates have led to names dropping off the list of potential adds and deletes over the last week.
Constituent changes, capping and funding flows will lead to a one-way turnover of 12.7% and a one-way trade of US$1.17bn. There are 12 stocks with over 4x ADV to trade.

Huafa Property Services (982 HK)’s Knockout Offer

After entering a trading halt on the 16th May pursuant to the Takeover’s Code, property manager Huafa Property Services (982 HK) has now announced a privatisation by way of a Scheme.
The cancellation price of A$0.29/share is a 30.63% to last close, a 70.59% premium over the 30-day average close, and a life-time high price. The price is final.
The Offeror, Zhuhai Huafa, a state-owned enterprise wholly-owned by Zhuhai SASAC, plus concert parties hold 42.63% of shares out. Clean deal.

Activism Takes On CMCDI (133 HK)

In January this year, Argyle Street, a (now) 8% shareholder of China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK) (CMCDI), a closed-end investment company, proposed a solution to boost shareholder value.
Two months later, Rydal Value Fund (stake unknown) also proposed a means to boosting shareholder value along similar lines.
CMCDI is currently trading at a ~63% discount to NAV. But it is up 78% since Argyle’s initial proposal, and recently touched a six-year high. Argyle is still buying.

Huafa Property Services (982 HK): Scheme Offer at HK$0.29

Huafa Property Services Group (982 HK) announced a privatisation offer from Huafa Industrial Co., Ltd. Zhuhai (600325 CH) at HK$0.29 per share, a 30.6% premium to the undisturbed price.
Key conditions include approval by at least 75% of independent shareholders (<10% of independent shareholders rejection) and a headcount test. No shareholder holds a blocking stake.
The offer, which has been declared final, is attractive compared to historical share prices and peer multiples. This is a done deal, with payment likely in November.

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May 27

Most Read: Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index, Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings, Meituan, Modec Inc, Techwing Inc, Hoshino Resorts Reit, Great Wall Motor, L’Occitane, COSCO SHIPPING Holdings , China Molybdenum Co Ltd H and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

KRX Announces Final Version of Value-Up Disclosure Guidelines Alongside Dedicated Website Launch
Chilled & Frozen Logistics (9099 JP): Irrational Exuberance Takes Hold
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 24 May 2024); Strong Bank Buying and Tech Selling Continues
Weekly Deals Digest (26 May) – Henlius, HKTV, SciClone, KFC, Best World, PropertyGuru, Modec
KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance: Short Sell Ban Definitely Helping
Hoshino Resorts REIT Placement – Another Raising to Fund an Accretive Acquisition
A/H Premium Tracker (To 24 May 2024): HK Stocks Have a BAD Week and AH Premium Rebounds In
Merger Arb Mondays (27 May) – L’Occitane, SciClone, GA Pack, KFC Japan, CF Logistics, Best World
Offshore China ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in June; Cutoff Today
FXI Rebalance Preview: Cutoff Today; Two Changes Likely in June

KRX Announces Final Version of Value-Up Disclosure Guidelines Alongside Dedicated Website Launch

Starting May 27th, KRX-listed firms can voluntarily disclose value-up details, publicly available on the website. Additionally, view five investment indicators for all KRX-listed companies below.
Finalized version similar to draft, with added content requested by listed companies, like R&D investment growth rate. Tax incentives excluded, awaiting alignment with Ministry’s plan in July.
KRX keeps a screening framework for the index akin to March’s criteria, with ROE likely having the highest weight. Recent signals hint at increasing dividend weighting.

Chilled & Frozen Logistics (9099 JP): Irrational Exuberance Takes Hold

Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP) shares are trading 85.7% above AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP) JPY3,000 offer due to the disclosure of four counterbidders.
The white knight “winning” bidder can secure the Board’s recommendation if it is the highest offer (likely well below the last close) and does not result in AZ-COM Maruwa-type dis-synergies.
AZ-COM Maruwa would face the dilemma of bumping, particularly if the white knight bidder secures irrevocables and the Board presents a compelling case to support the white knight bidder.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 24 May 2024); Strong Bank Buying and Tech Selling Continues

SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer for HK$18.6bn on strong two-way volumes. The top three net buys of the week were SOE banks. Some may be Central Huijin.
Some of this may be driven by the dividend w/h tax cancellation on H divs and by significant H-share discounts, but high-div CNOOC was the biggest net sell.
No end to the inflows, and HK valuations are not at a place where they would hamper continued flows. Alibaba making HK a Primary will spur more inflows over time.

Weekly Deals Digest (26 May) – Henlius, HKTV, SciClone, KFC, Best World, PropertyGuru, Modec

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Modec Inc (6269 JP) prices its US$535 million secondary offering.
Event-Driven developments: Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK), Hong Kong Television Network (1137 HK). Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK), Kfc Holdings Japan (9873 JP), Best World International (BEST SP), PropertyGuru (PGRU US).

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance: Short Sell Ban Definitely Helping

There are 13 inclusions and 13 exclusions for the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) at the June rebalance to be implemented at the close on 13 June.
For the second consecutive review, Fadu (440110 KS) and Shinsung DeltaTech (065350 KS) have been kept out of the index. Not sure what the index committee’s beef with them is.
The adds have outperformed the deletes and the KOSDAQ150 since the start of the review period. This has been helped, in no small, part by the ban on short selling.

Hoshino Resorts REIT Placement – Another Raising to Fund an Accretive Acquisition

Hoshino Resorts Reit (3287 JP) is looking to raise US$125m from a primary follow-on. Proceeds will be used to acquire the OMO7 Osaka asset.
The REIT has been active on the acquisition front, undertaking a number of capital raisings in recent years.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 24 May 2024): HK Stocks Have a BAD Week and AH Premium Rebounds In

The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND’s buy streak continued this past week; every day was net positive. NORTHBOUND was net positive too. It is not clear how much is National Team buying. Much may be.
AH Premia rebounded off multi-year lows, on average, this past week as Hang Seng and other HK indices fell sharply and A-shares did not fall as much.

Merger Arb Mondays (27 May) – L’Occitane, SciClone, GA Pack, KFC Japan, CF Logistics, Best World

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK), Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US), Ansarada Group Ltd (AND AU), Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK), China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK).
Lowest spreads: Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP), Mma Offshore (MRM AU), Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP), Mimasu Semiconductor Industry (8155 JP), Boral Ltd (BLD AU).

Offshore China ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in June; Cutoff Today

Based on the close of 24 May, there could be three changes for the iShares A50 China (2823 HK)/ CSOP China A50 (HKD) (2822 HK) in June.
COSCO SHIPPING (601919 CH), CRRC (601766 CH) and China National NuclearPower (601985 CH) could replace LONGi GreenEnergy (601012 CH), CSC Financial (601066 CH) and China Tourism Group DutyFree (601888 CH).
There are a couple of stocks that are close adds and could become adds if they outperform higher ranked stocks in trading today.

FXI Rebalance Preview: Cutoff Today; Two Changes Likely in June

With a day to go in the review period, there could be 2 changes for the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) in June.
There should be more than 1x ADV to buy on one of the adds while there will be nearly 5x ADV to sell on one of the deletes.
There will be positioning in all the potential changes but there appears to be higher interest in one of the potential adds and one of the potential deletes.

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May 26

Most Read: Hanmi Semiconductor, Sciclone Pharmaceuticals, DB Hitek Co., Ltd., Hang Seng Index, Alibaba Group Holding , Modec Inc, Best World International, Grape King Bio, BHP Group Ltd, Honda Motor Co Ltd (Adr) and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

KOSPI200 June ’24 Rebalance: Index Changes Released, 6 Additions & 6 Deletions
SciClone Pharma (6600 HK): Scheme Vote on 19 June
Unexpected Inclusion of Cosmo AM&T in KOSPI 200 Sparks Notable One-Day Flow Via KOSPI 200 IT
EQD | Hang Seng Down: How Low Can the Pullback Go?
Alibaba Group: A Story Of Cross-Border E-commerce Scale-up! – Major Drivers
Weekly Deals Digest (26 May) – Henlius, HKTV, SciClone, KFC, Best World, PropertyGuru, Modec
Best World (BEST SP): Best and Final S$2.56 Offer
Asian Dividend Gems: Grape King Bio
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: KFC Holdings Japan, Shanghai Henlius, Alumina, BHP/ Anglo American, SciClone
Honda Motor Co.: What Is The Positioning of Hybrid in Electrification Strategy? – Major Drivers

KOSPI200 June ’24 Rebalance: Index Changes Released, 6 Additions & 6 Deletions

By Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

The KRX have announced the index changes for the KOSPI200 June review.
The index will be rebalanced in the closing auction on Thursday the 13th of June.
There will be 6 additions to the index and 6 deletions.

SciClone Pharma (6600 HK): Scheme Vote on 19 June

Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK)‘s scheme document is out, and the court meeting is scheduled for 19 June. The IFA considers the HK$18.80 per share offer fair and reasonable.
The key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (<10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). No independent shareholder holds a blocking stake.
This is a done deal. At the last close and for the 12 July payment, the gross and annualised spread is 2.2% and 17.3%, respectively.

Unexpected Inclusion of Cosmo AM&T in KOSPI 200 Sparks Notable One-Day Flow Via KOSPI 200 IT

Unexpectedly, KRX included Cosmo AM&T (005070 KS) despite not meeting the market cap cutoff and excluded DB Hitek (000990 KS) and Lotte Energy Materials (020150 KS).
Cosmo AM&T’s unexpected inclusion triggers a significant one-day passive flow event through the KOSPI 200 IT, the sector index with the largest AUM.
Sector index rebalancing, a single-day event managed by one ETF operator, more significantly correlates flow direction with price impact. We should consider a long-short setup for these on June 13th.

EQD | Hang Seng Down: How Low Can the Pullback Go?

By Nico Rosti

The Hang Seng Index has been rallying for 3 weeks but then last week the rise was halted and the index gave up a good chunk of the gains.
It seems the index has become quite volatile but this week it could go up again, or otherwise next week, the reversal is imminent given its oversold condition.
It’s hard to predict if the rally can continue after the bounce, the index seems a bit long-term overbought, albeit short-term oversold. A contradiction, but that is the situation now.

Alibaba Group: A Story Of Cross-Border E-commerce Scale-up! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

Alibaba Group’s March Quarter and Full Fiscal Year 2024 results show that major segments such as the Taobao and Tmall Group, Alibaba International Digital Commerce, and core public cloud offerings are experiencing growth.
The Taobao and Tmall Group achieved double-digit year-over year growth, while Alibaba International Digital Commerce revenue increased by 45%.
Moreover, AI related revenue increased triple digit year-over-year, demonstrating the potential of AI technology in fueling the company’s growth.

Weekly Deals Digest (26 May) – Henlius, HKTV, SciClone, KFC, Best World, PropertyGuru, Modec

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Modec Inc (6269 JP) prices its US$535 million secondary offering.
Event-Driven developments: Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK), Hong Kong Television Network (1137 HK). Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK), Kfc Holdings Japan (9873 JP), Best World International (BEST SP), PropertyGuru (PGRU US).

Best World (BEST SP): Best and Final S$2.56 Offer

Best World International (BEST SP) has disclosed a revised exit offer which has been declared final. The S$2.56 offer is a modest 2.4% premium to the previous S$2.50 offer.
The key conditions are approval for the selective capital reduction (at least 75% of eligible shareholders) and delisting resolution (a majority holding not less than 75% in value).
The revised offer remains underwhelming. However, the headcount test risk is lowering as retail seems resigned to accepting it. At the last close, the gross spread was 2.4%.

Asian Dividend Gems: Grape King Bio

Grape King Bio has one of the most remarkable consistency in profit margins among all Asian F&B companies. Its net margins ranged from 13% to 15% in the past decade.
The company’s dividend yield increased from 3.8% in 2021 to 4.1% in 2022, and 4.4% in 2023. Its annual dividend payout averaged 69.6% from 2019 to 2023.
Established in 1969, Grape King Bio is one of the leading health food, drink, and supplement products manufacturers in Taiwan.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: KFC Holdings Japan, Shanghai Henlius, Alumina, BHP/ Anglo American, SciClone