Most Read

The March 2024 rebal is done and dusted. When announced, there were 2 prospective DELETEs for Sep 2024. Now there is only one expected DELETE, Nippon Paper Industries (3863 JP).
The one likely inclusion is therefore Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP). But there is more fun afoot with Fast Retailing (9983 JP) and Tokyo Electron (8035 JP).
The two stocks – of totally different sectors – interact somewhat, both in determining Nikkei 225 direction, and their relative potential selldowns.

Fast Retailing (9983) – Great (Bte) Earnings Now Out of The Way; Anticipating End-July Capping Data

Yesterday after the close, Fast Retailing (9983 JP) reported salutary Q3 earnings, and raised its full-year (to August) guidance and its final dividend forecast (by ¥50/share)
Q3 revenue and profit gained sharply (Rev +13.5%, OP +31.2%) everywhere but Greater China. OPMs were up, especially in Japan. Early summer has been good, despite FX impact.
New guidance is above consensus, the ADR popped, and with slightly stronger yen on US CPI, that should help. But we approach end-July. Expect lots of pop-sellers.

Details of Two Doosan Mergers Involving Enerbility, Robotics, & Bobcat

The restructuring plan of Doosan Group announced today primarily consists of two merger events aimed at transferring the stake in Doosan Bobcat held by Doosan Enerbility to Doosan Robotics.
The 50% price cut on Doosan Enerbility’s share price for merging with Doosan Robotics boosts Robotics’ advantage. This resulted in a swap spread opening with Doosan Bobcat.
Considering an arbitrage strategy in the Doosan Robotics and Doosan Bobcat swap needs caution due to shareholder approval risks, especially with Doosan Enerbility’s low controlling stake potentially complicating the process.

[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Keisei Elec (9009) AGM Result Not Salutary, Tough To Win On This Stance

A week ago, the Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) AGM took place. The activist which had proposed a shareholder resolution saw ISS and Glass Lewis support.
But that was to no avail as the shareholder proposal got 29.89% of the votes, and 26.15% of total voting rights. This likely informs the near-term future of such proposals.
I expect the ask needs to change, and the agenda item needs to be difficult to be against.

JAPAN ACTIVISM: Activists Sell ALL Their Daidoh (3205) In One Day. Oops 😬

Daidoh Ltd (3205 JP) saw an activist “win” at its AGM, another activist bought, the stock popped. I wrote about it. 2hrs later, the Board set a new Div Policy.
¥100/Yr for 3 years in a row. That was 11% of then-current price. Big activist win for Strategic Capital which owned 25% and Murakami-san who had gone substantial 1wk earlier.
Today post-close, Strategic Capital reported it sold everything on 5 July, the next day. WOW. That was half of Maximum Real World Float. Oops. Murakami-san sold too.

Henlius (2696 HK): Dilemma as the Scrip Pre-Condition Met and a Substantial Shareholder Emerges

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) announced that the share alternative pre-condition was satisfied. However, the share alternative offer remains at Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)’s discretion.
Loyal Valley Capital (LVC), a pre-IPO investor, emerged as a substantial shareholder on 10 July, the deadline for submitting letters of interest for the share alternative offer.
The likely scenario is that the offer succeeds as the co-founders enter rollover arrangements, and a share alternative is introduced, which is taken by QIA and LVC.

Henlius (2696 HK): Here Comes The Scrip Option

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)‘s (SFP) “Merger by Absorption” HK$24.60/share cash Offer for H-shares not held in Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK), tentatively includes a scrip alternative.
The first hurdle for the share option – valid letters of interest from those shareholders wishing to rollover – was secured yesterday. SCP still has the discretion on providing scrip.
But if SFP had any lingering doubts whether to offer scrip, that was answered earlier this week with the emergence of a substantial shareholder who is typically a pre-IPO investor.

Pacific Smiles’ (PSQ AU) Scheme Vote: Say “aaaarrrghhhh”?!

After what appeared indecisiveness from Genesis Capital, Crescent Capital’s National Dental Care snuck in on the 29th April and entered into a Scheme with Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU) at A$1.90/share.
The Scheme Meeting is the 1st August with expected implementation on the 19th August. The IE (Deloitte) reckoned terms are fair & reasonable. All good right? Not quite.
The Takeovers Panel has concluded Genesis Capital, with 19.9% of shares out, is free to vote. Assuming Genesis votes against the Scheme, Crescent Capital’s Offer is effectively dead.

HUGE Asics (7936) Offering – Big Guidance Boost at ATH So Feed the Ducks When They Are Quacking

Today after the close, ASICS Corp (7936 JP) announced a very large secondary offering. It points out that as a global brand, it needs global-standard corporate governance.
As such, it says they’ve been discussing sales with crossholders. But we knew the cross-holders were going to sell. This offering is 85mm shares, ¥210bn at last. That’s big.
The stock has doubled year-to-date. Today they raised FY guidance BIGLY (+60% OP and NP). Now a huge offering. This seems like a “feed the ducks when they’re quacking” situation.

Reorganization of the Doosan Group: Why Delist Doosan Bobcat (Jewel of Doosan Group)?

By Douglas Kim

On 11 July, the Doosan Group announced a major business structure reorganization, including the delisting of Doosan Bobcat Inc (241560 KS).
In our view (over the next 3-6 months), these transactions appear to be value-destroying for Doosan Bobcat and Doosan Enerbility minority shareholders but positive for Doosan Robotics shareholders.
Doosan Robotics plans to acquire the remaining 54% stake in Doosan Bobcat through a tender offer. Once Doosan Robotics fully owns Doosan Bobcat, its shares will be delisted.

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Jul 12

Most Read: Kokusai Electric , Doosan Robotics , Linklogis, Fast Retailing, Canvest Environmental Protection Group, Keisei Electric Railway Co, Netmarble , Puig Brands , Shanghai Henlius Biotech and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Kokusai Elec (6525) ¥300bn+ Offering at ATH – Almost a Second IPO
Details of Two Doosan Mergers Involving Enerbility, Robotics, & Bobcat
Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Three Adds/Deletes & Capping Changes
Fast Retailing (9983) – Great (Bte) Earnings Now Out of The Way; Anticipating End-July Capping Data
Canvest (1381 HK): Evaluating A Privatisation
[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Keisei Elec (9009) AGM Result Not Salutary, Tough To Win On This Stance
Fast Retailing (9983) | Q3 Masterclass
Trading Setup Targeting the Netmarble PSR Contract, as Seen in the Case of Doosan Bobcat
Puig Brands Joins the IBEX35
Henlius (2696 HK): Dilemma as the Scrip Pre-Condition Met and a Substantial Shareholder Emerges

Kokusai Elec (6525) ¥300bn+ Offering at ATH – Almost a Second IPO

Today post-close we got confirmation of yesterday’s Reuters scoop of a secondary selldown on Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) after the stock fell 7.2% in heavy volume.
KKR HKE LP and KSP Kokusai LLC (Koch) will together sell 52.5mm shares plus another 7.8mm+ in the greenshoe. Split is 50/50 domestic/international.
This is 60+mm shares against 51mm shares held by non-passive holders ex-Capital (who has been selling). It’s a lot of stock at a high price.

Details of Two Doosan Mergers Involving Enerbility, Robotics, & Bobcat

The restructuring plan of Doosan Group announced today primarily consists of two merger events aimed at transferring the stake in Doosan Bobcat held by Doosan Enerbility to Doosan Robotics.
The 50% price cut on Doosan Enerbility’s share price for merging with Doosan Robotics boosts Robotics’ advantage. This resulted in a swap spread opening with Doosan Bobcat.
Considering an arbitrage strategy in the Doosan Robotics and Doosan Bobcat swap needs caution due to shareholder approval risks, especially with Doosan Enerbility’s low controlling stake potentially complicating the process.

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Three Adds/Deletes & Capping Changes

The review cutoff date for the September rebalance of the HSIII was 28 June. The changes will be announced on 16 August and become effective after the close 6 September.
There could be 3 changes to the index with some inclusions driven by potential addition to the Hang Seng Composite Index. That could lead to buying via Southbound Stock Connect.
Capping will result in passives buying Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) and JD.com (9618 HK) while selling Meituan (3690 HK) and Tencent (700 HK).

Fast Retailing (9983) – Great (Bte) Earnings Now Out of The Way; Anticipating End-July Capping Data

Yesterday after the close, Fast Retailing (9983 JP) reported salutary Q3 earnings, and raised its full-year (to August) guidance and its final dividend forecast (by ¥50/share)
Q3 revenue and profit gained sharply (Rev +13.5%, OP +31.2%) everywhere but Greater China. OPMs were up, especially in Japan. Early summer has been good, despite FX impact.
New guidance is above consensus, the ADR popped, and with slightly stronger yen on US CPI, that should help. But we approach end-July. Expect lots of pop-sellers.

Canvest (1381 HK): Evaluating A Privatisation

Since waste-to-energy play Canvest Environmental Protection (1381 HK) announced a possible privatisation from Grandblue Environment (600323 CH) at $4.90/share (a 20.7% premium to undisturbed), shares are up just 6.4%.
There’s a lot to pack in here, not the least being this is an indicative Pre-Conditional Offer.
But the fact the announcement mentions rolling over a specific number of shares of the controlling shareholders (7.23%), suggests negotiations are well advanced. So we explore.

[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Keisei Elec (9009) AGM Result Not Salutary, Tough To Win On This Stance

A week ago, the Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) AGM took place. The activist which had proposed a shareholder resolution saw ISS and Glass Lewis support.
But that was to no avail as the shareholder proposal got 29.89% of the votes, and 26.15% of total voting rights. This likely informs the near-term future of such proposals.
I expect the ask needs to change, and the agenda item needs to be difficult to be against.

Fast Retailing (9983) | Q3 Masterclass

By Mark Chadwick

Fast Retailing delivered an impressive Q3 report. Sales +10% YoY were +3% above our expectations.
Big jump in profitability. OP +31% YoY to Y145b driven by +57% jump in Uniqlo Japan earnings. Record consolidated OPM ~19%
Uniqlo’s performance is leaving global peers in its wake. Profitability now rivalling Inditex. However, valuations remain at a premium

Trading Setup Targeting the Netmarble PSR Contract, as Seen in the Case of Doosan Bobcat

This block deal has an unusual PSR (price swap return) contract at ₩58,200, the July 10th closing price, likely preventing Netmarble’s typical stock price correction today.
In 2022, a similar-sized local PSR transaction involved Doosan Bobcat Inc, with 9.9 million shares and a PSR swap price of ₩37,500.
As for Doosan Bobcat, the stock initially dropped but rebounded near the PSR swap price, prompting local brokerages, focused on PSR fee income, to sell rather than realize capital gains.

Puig Brands Joins the IBEX35

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

The Technical Advisory Committee (CAT) in an extraordinary meeting adds Puig Brands (PUIG SM) to the IBEX 35 index and removes Melia Hotels International Sa (MEL SM).
Although Puig Brands has only been publicly traded since 3 May, its market value exceeds €14.5 billion and its trading volume makes it deserving of a spot in the IBEX.
Puig Brands is expected to see at least a 50% increase in trading volume by July 22, potentially adding four to eight additional days of trading volume.

Henlius (2696 HK): Dilemma as the Scrip Pre-Condition Met and a Substantial Shareholder Emerges

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) announced that the share alternative pre-condition was satisfied. However, the share alternative offer remains at Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)’s discretion.
Loyal Valley Capital (LVC), a pre-IPO investor, emerged as a substantial shareholder on 10 July, the deadline for submitting letters of interest for the share alternative offer.
The likely scenario is that the offer succeeds as the co-founders enter rollover arrangements, and a share alternative is introduced, which is taken by QIA and LVC.

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Jul 11

Most Read: Asia Cement China, Ryohin Keikaku, Kokusai Electric , Posco Future M, Wiwynn Corp, Hong Kong Television Network and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

KKR To Sell a 20-22% Stake in Kokusai Electric (6525)?
Asia Cement (743 HK): $3.22/Share Offer – Really?
Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2024): Potential Adds/Deletes, Capping & Funding Changes
Kokusai Elec (6525) ¥300bn+ Offering at ATH – Almost a Second IPO
Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Placement, Buyback & Index Flows
Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Rumoured KKR US$1.8 Billion Secondary Offering
KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Lots of Change; Shift Up Listing Adds to It
Wiwynn GDR Offering – US$1.45bn Dilutive Offering, but Momentum Has Been Very Strong
HKTV (1137 HK)’s Low-Balled Buyback Gets The Nod
Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): A US$2.0 Billion Secondary Offering

KKR To Sell a 20-22% Stake in Kokusai Electric (6525)?

Today, a Reuters article came out saying that KKR would sell down half its 43% stake in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) according to “two people familiar with the matter.”
The article also said Kokusai Electric would buy back shares. Kokusai responded with a TDNET release saying “we did not release this info but we are considering various capital policies.
It pays to look at the Shareholder Structure as it stands. This is bigger than it looks.

Asia Cement (743 HK): $3.22/Share Offer – Really?

After Chinese cement play Asia Cement China (743 HK) (ACC) was suspended on the 28th May, a punchy Offer from its parent Asia Cement (1102 TT) was expected.
Not to be. Asia Cement is offering $3.22/share, best & final. A 3.01% discount to last close, ~ 45% premium to undisturbed, and a whopping 37% discount to net cash.
Asia Cement plus concert parties hold 73.38%, so a blocking stake at the Court Meeting is 2.662%. One (possible) aspect in Asia Cement’s favour is that ACC is not shortable.

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2024): Potential Adds/Deletes, Capping & Funding Changes

The review period for the Nikkei 225 Index September rebalance ends in three weeks. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance used for the additions.
Depending on the changes, passive trackers will need to buy between 3-57x ADV (2.4%-24% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 3.7-8.4x ADV on the deletions.
Fast Retailing (9983 JP)‘s index weight is currently higher than 10% and that will result in capping in September. Passives will need to sell 6x ADV in the stock.

Kokusai Elec (6525) ¥300bn+ Offering at ATH – Almost a Second IPO

Today post-close we got confirmation of yesterday’s Reuters scoop of a secondary selldown on Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) after the stock fell 7.2% in heavy volume.
KKR HKE LP and KSP Kokusai LLC (Koch) will together sell 52.5mm shares plus another 7.8mm+ in the greenshoe. Split is 50/50 domestic/international.
This is 60+mm shares against 51mm shares held by non-passive holders ex-Capital (who has been selling). It’s a lot of stock at a high price.

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Placement, Buyback & Index Flows

KKR and KSP Kokusai will offer 52.51m-60.38m shares (US$1.76bn-2bn) of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) in a secondary offering that will likely be priced on 22 July.
Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) will also buy back up to JPY 18bn of its shares. At the last close, that is 3.33m shares (1.2x ADV).
Trackers of one global index will buy stock at the time of settlement of the shares. The (much) bigger buying will come at the end of August.

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Rumoured KKR US$1.8 Billion Secondary Offering

Reuters reported that KKR & Co (KKR US), the largest Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) shareholder, plans to sell about half of its 43% stake, worth around JPY300 billion.
As Kokusai’s shares are trading at 3.2x the IPO price of JPY1,840, KKR would be tempted to reduce its stake further. The 180-day IPO lock-up period expired on 22 April.
Kokusai anticipates a return to growth and margin improvement. However, Kokusai trades at a material premium to peer multiples and is fully priced.

KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Lots of Change; Shift Up Listing Adds to It

The review period for the September rebalance ends 31 July, the changes will be announced in the first week of September and implemented at the close of trading 12 September.
There are changes expected for each of the Secondary Battery, Bio, Internet, Game and BBIG indices. The Shift Up (462870 KS) listing should result in more changes.
The largest flows will be in Posco Future M, Ecopro BM, SK Biopharmaceuticals, Alteogen, Douzone Bizon, SKC Co and Kakao Corp.

Wiwynn GDR Offering – US$1.45bn Dilutive Offering, but Momentum Has Been Very Strong

By Clarence Chu

Wiwynn Corp (6669 TT) is looking to raise around US$850m in its global depository receipts (GDRs) offering.
Similar to previous GDR listings, the deal is a long drawn out process with the firm required to jump through a number of board/shareholder/regulatory approval loops.
In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

HKTV (1137 HK)’s Low-Balled Buyback Gets The Nod

Back in May, online shopping platform play Hong Kong Television Network (1137 HK) announced a buy-back of 11.25% of shares out, at $2.15/share, a mediocre 20.8% premium to undisturbed.
The thrust of the Offer was to lift co-founder Ricky Wong’s stake to 51.55% from 45.75%. But that required independent shareholders approving a whitewash waiver not to make a MGO.
I didn’t expect shareholder pushback. And there wasn’t. Tendering closes on the 23rd July. Keep an eye on CCASS movements. Shares gained 4.7% yesterday prior to the EGM outcome. Mmm.

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): A US$2.0 Billion Secondary Offering

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 60.4 million shares (including overallotment). At the close, the offer, including overallotment, is worth JPY326 billion (US$2.0 billion).
The secondary offering facilitates KKR and KSP Kokusai Investments’ ability to crystallise substantial IPO gains—the shares are trading at 3.2x the IPO price of JPY1,840.
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 22 and 24 July (likely 22 July).

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Jul 10

Most Read: Kokusai Electric , Aisin , Recruit Holdings, Hanwha Corporation, Asia Cement China, Ryohin Keikaku, Kelun Biotech, Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Kokusai Electric IPO Lock-Up – KKR Will Be Tempted by the US$2.7bn Release but Might Have to Wait
KKR To Sell a 20-22% Stake in Kokusai Electric (6525)?
Toyota Group Cross-Holding Structure Primer – Holdings, Unwind Progress, Buyback Policies, Etc
Recruit (6098 JP) – BIG Headline Buyback But Disappointing if That Is Best Use Of Cash
StubWorld: Hanwha Corp’s Steep Discount & Tender Offer
Asia Cement China (743.HK) – Investors Are Facing the Dilemma of Low-Priced Privatization
Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2024): Potential Adds/Deletes, Capping & Funding Changes
Kelun-Biotech IPO Lock-Up Expiry – Strong Performance Leaves Pre-IPO Investors with Large Gains
Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Rumoured KKR US$1.8 Billion Secondary Offering
Details of Block Deal Pre-Disclosure Rule Disclosed: Cancellation Risk from 30% Price Correction

Kokusai Electric IPO Lock-Up – KKR Will Be Tempted by the US$2.7bn Release but Might Have to Wait

KKR raised around US$730m via selling some stake in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) Japan IPO in Sep 2023. Its remaining stake will be released from its IPO linked lockup soon.
KE main business activities consist of the manufacturing, sales and maintenance service of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.

KKR To Sell a 20-22% Stake in Kokusai Electric (6525)?

Today, a Reuters article came out saying that KKR would sell down half its 43% stake in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) according to “two people familiar with the matter.”
The article also said Kokusai Electric would buy back shares. Kokusai responded with a TDNET release saying “we did not release this info but we are considering various capital policies.
It pays to look at the Shareholder Structure as it stands. This is bigger than it looks.

Toyota Group Cross-Holding Structure Primer – Holdings, Unwind Progress, Buyback Policies, Etc

Last September in the release of its new Mid-Term Management Plan, Toyota Group member Aisin (7259 JP) announced a plan to cut cross-holdings to zero. JTEKT Corp (6473 JP) followed suit.
It started with a selldown of Denso Corp (6902 JP), then Toyota Industries (6201 JP), now Aisin. Last FY, Toyota Group cos reduced crossholdings by ¥870bn. This year will be more.
Attached below is a general breakdown of Toyota Group cross-holdings, discussion of cross-holding policies, and analysis of what is next, and what is not.

Recruit (6098 JP) – BIG Headline Buyback But Disappointing if That Is Best Use Of Cash

Last December, Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) announced a ¥200bn buyback which sounded big but with lots of cross-holders, wasn’t huge. The stock is up 80% in 6+ months since.
Today, the company announced a new buyback of ¥600bn. This is very aggressive, and at 25x EBITDA and 40x PER, is probably due to demand to sell.
Crossholders now hold ¥2trln which is three-plus times this buyback. And if the price were to rise 10% a year for 3yrs, it would be four times.

StubWorld: Hanwha Corp’s Steep Discount & Tender Offer

With Hanwha Corporation (000880 KS) trading around a one-year low NAV discount, the Hanwha Group has made a Tender Offer for 8% of shares outstanding at ₩30,000/share.
Preceding my comments on Hanwha are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Asia Cement China (743.HK) – Investors Are Facing the Dilemma of Low-Priced Privatization

Many minority shareholders have lodged complaints against ACC with the SFC, since unfair privatization price damages the ecology of the entire market.It depends on whether the SFC will take action.
The failure of privatization does not necessarily mean better returns for investors. On the contrary, it may result in greater losses. ACC can have other ways “hollow out” the Company.
Arbitrageurs can choose to bet on a second privatization (with higher Offer Price) and also on the potential dividends, but the prerequisite is that the management choose to “act honorably”.

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2024): Potential Adds/Deletes, Capping & Funding Changes

The review period for the Nikkei 225 Index September rebalance ends in three weeks. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance used for the additions.
Depending on the changes, passive trackers will need to buy between 3-57x ADV (2.4%-24% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 3.7-8.4x ADV on the deletions.
Fast Retailing (9983 JP)‘s index weight is currently higher than 10% and that will result in capping in September. Passives will need to sell 6x ADV in the stock.

Kelun-Biotech IPO Lock-Up Expiry – Strong Performance Leaves Pre-IPO Investors with Large Gains

Kelun Biotech (KB) raised around US$170m in its IPO in July 2023, the lockup on its pre-IPO shareholders is set to expire soon.
KB is a China-based integrated innovative biopharmaceutical company. It has accumulated more than ten years of experience in antibody drug conjugates (ADC) development.
In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Rumoured KKR US$1.8 Billion Secondary Offering

Reuters reported that KKR & Co (KKR US), the largest Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) shareholder, plans to sell about half of its 43% stake, worth around JPY300 billion.
As Kokusai’s shares are trading at 3.2x the IPO price of JPY1,840, KKR would be tempted to reduce its stake further. The 180-day IPO lock-up period expired on 22 April.
Kokusai anticipates a return to growth and margin improvement. However, Kokusai trades at a material premium to peer multiples and is fully priced.

Details of Block Deal Pre-Disclosure Rule Disclosed: Cancellation Risk from 30% Price Correction

Today’s press release unveils details on new flow trading events in Korea’s local market from the second half of this year, highlighting two key points.
Firstly, the disclosure rule starts with block deals from August 23rd. Secondly, a 30% or greater stock price correction on disclosure day may cancel the transaction plan.
This highlights the need to consider cancellation risks in pre-disclosure positions and design setups with consideration for the potential for reverse flows as stock prices approach 30% corrections.

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Jul 09

Most Read: China Traditional Chinese Medicine, Zip , Shanghai Henlius Biotech , Clio Cosmetics, Softbank Corp, GoodWe Technologies , Kakao Games , Honda Motor, China Resources Pharmaceutical, MD Pictures Tbk PT and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Merger Arb Mondays (08 Jul) – China TCM, L’Occitane, A8 Media, GA Pack, Asia Cement, Hollysys, MMA
S&P/ASX 100/200 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Potential Replacements for Altium (ALU AU)
Shanghai Henlius Biotech Update (2696.HK) – The Story Behind Privatization
KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: For Now, A Dozen Changes in December
Softbank Corp (9434) – Accounting for the Accounting Is Complicated Redux – So Be Bearish
STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Outright Adds Outperforming Outright Deletes
Exploring the Kakao Corp and Krafton Deal Potential for Kakao Games
Honda (7267) : Offering’s Underwhelming Global Index Implications
Quiddity Leaderboard for Hang Seng Index Sep 24: New Economy? Clean Energy? or Shipping?
LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Index Changes

Merger Arb Mondays (08 Jul) – China TCM, L’Occitane, A8 Media, GA Pack, Asia Cement, Hollysys, MMA

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK), China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK), A8 New Media (800 HK), Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK), Asia Cement China (743 HK).
Lowest spreads: Fancl Corp (4921 JP), Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP), Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP), Tatsuta Electric Wire & Cable (5809 JP), Kfc Holdings Japan (9873 JP).

S&P/ASX 100/200 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Potential Replacements for Altium (ALU AU)

With all regulatory approvals received, the Scheme Meeting for Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)‘ acquisition of Altium Ltd (ALU AU) will take place on 12 July.
If approved at the Scheme Meeting and at the Second Court Hearing, Altium Ltd (ALU AU) will stop trading from the close on 19 July.
The replacements for Altium Ltd (ALU AU) in the ASX100/200 indices could be announced late this week with implementation at the close on 19 July.

Shanghai Henlius Biotech Update (2696.HK) – The Story Behind Privatization

Fosun’s preferred arrangement for Henlius is to list the Company in A-shares.Since IPO in A-shares failed and Henlius has begun to generate profits, Fosun finally feels the need for privatization.
Due to its “flaws”, undervaluation of Henlius in the Hong Kong stock market is difficult to fundamentally change. So, for conservative/cautious investors, Fosun’s one-time acquisition at a 30% premium is attractive.
The Potential Share Alternative Offer seems a good option, but it is uncertain whether investors are still willing to believe in Fosun’s “good story” – the future re-listing is uncertain.

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: For Now, A Dozen Changes in December

With just over a third of the review period complete, there could be 12 changes for the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX EQUITY) at the December rebalance.
Even with 12 potential changes, there is sector balance with over half the changes in the Information Technology sector. Passive trading impact varies from 0.04-4.1x ADV.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) since the start of the year with a big move higher since mid-May.

Softbank Corp (9434) – Accounting for the Accounting Is Complicated Redux – So Be Bearish

Telecom companies are traditionally “easy” to value. They have assets, debt, depreciation, earnings, cashflow. Lots of people like to use EV/EBITDA to measure.
In comparing Japan’s telcos, I believe when Softbank Corp (9434 JP) is in the mix, one has to use forward PERs. EV/EBITDA is too fraught with complications.
Softbank is currently at its most expensive multiple since listing on a Price to Forward Earnings basis, and relative to its major Peers. And KDDI has a big buyback now.

STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Outright Adds Outperforming Outright Deletes

The review period for the September rebalance ends 30 July. We expect the changes to be announced 30 August with the implementation taking place after the close on 13 September.
We forecast 6 changes for the index, including migrations between the STAR 100 Index and the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX).
Excluding the migrations, the potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes since the start of the calendar year and there could be further outperformance over the next few weeks.

Exploring the Kakao Corp and Krafton Deal Potential for Kakao Games

Kakao has begun talks with potential buyers for Kakao Games, with Krafton leading discussions directly using its own investment team.
Despite official denials, it’s viewed as procedural. Local markets anticipate the deal due to no direct refutation beyond formal announcements.
A three-month compliance period from disclosure makes this quarter challenging, but completion announcement potential exists by Q4 this year.

Honda (7267) : Offering’s Underwhelming Global Index Implications

By Dimitris Ioannidis

Despite the significant offering size, passive fund demand is unlikely to materialize due to non-strategic selling shareholders.
Company’s number of shares and free float in the main global indices are forecasted to remain the same before and after the offering.
Upcoming buybacks can lead to a decrease in float shares which can even cause passive fund supply at a subsequent quarterly review.

Quiddity Leaderboard for Hang Seng Index Sep 24: New Economy? Clean Energy? or Shipping?

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

In this insight, we take a look at a group of names with reasonably high likelihood of being involved in index changes for the Hang Seng Index in September 2024.
The index changes for the September 2024 index rebal will be announced on 16th August 2024.
The HSI selection process is highly subjective and does not follow clear-cut rules. This insight is simply an attempt to provide readers with an overall understanding of the possible scenarios.

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Index Changes

The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended 30 June. The changes should be announced the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.
Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for Bank Rakyat (BBRI) and Bank Central Asia (BBCA).
For a change, the impact on the potential inclusions will be higher since they will join the index with higher weights compared to the potential deletions.

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Jul 08

Most Read: Mitsui Matsushima, Aisin , TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Canvest Environmental Protection Group, Honda Motor, China Traditional Chinese Medicine, Zip , Timee Inc, ICBC (H) and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

JAPAN ACTIVISM: Murakami Target Mitsui Matsushima Cleans Up
Aisin (7259 JP): The Current Playbook
Fy23 GPIF Results and Portfolio Changes – Outlook for FY24
Canvest Environmental (1381 HK): Possible Privatisation at HK$4.90
Last Week in Event SPACE: Barito Renewables, Honda, Raffles Medical, Daidoh, Hanwha Corp
Merger Arb Mondays (08 Jul) – China TCM, L’Occitane, A8 Media, GA Pack, Asia Cement, Hollysys, MMA
S&P/ASX 100/200 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Potential Replacements for Altium (ALU AU)
Timee (215A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights
Timee Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation – Primed for a Decent Upside at the Current Range
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 5 Jul 2024); SOE Bank and SOE Petro-Energy Flows Dominate

JAPAN ACTIVISM: Murakami Target Mitsui Matsushima Cleans Up

On 20 May, I wrote that Japanese activist MURAKAMI Yoshiaki and relations/affiliates had gone from 5% to 20% of Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) in 5 trading days.
I wondered if it was real, or a pump & dump, but they went to near 30% in following days. THEN they drifted off as Murakami-Fille sold while Murakami-Père bought.
The reasoning was not clear, but the story had real potential. Still does. Today, shareholders got more good news.

Aisin (7259 JP): The Current Playbook

Since the US$1.1 billion secondary placement announcement, Aisin (7259 JP)’s shares are up 2.5% from the undisturbed price of JPY5,243 per share (27 June).
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Aisin’s shares have deviated from the pattern of previous large placements.
The offering will likely be priced on 8 July. Investors who have participated in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.

Fy23 GPIF Results and Portfolio Changes – Outlook for FY24

Last year, the GPIF as a whole returned 22.67% in yen terms. As a whole, GPIF outperformed its benchmarks by 0.04% after paying 0.02% in fees and costs.
GPIF traded ¥30trln of assets – relatively high turnover for a fund which espouses very low turnover – but there’s a reason for that. There were also sharp active/passive moves.
This year is the last year in the “cycle” of the “old” Policy Allocation Framework. A new one is likely to be introduced this year.

Canvest Environmental (1381 HK): Possible Privatisation at HK$4.90

Grandblue Environment Co A (600323 CH) disclosed a potential pre-conditional privatisation of Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK) at HK$4.90 per share, a 20.7% premium to the last close price.
Completing the capital injection from SOE entities into the offeror is a precondition. Grandblue also proposes that the controlling shareholder roll over 7.23% of its effective 44.75% stake.
While not a knockout bid, the offer is reasonable. Shareholders with blocking stakes should support a binding proposal. Timing is the key risk.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Barito Renewables, Honda, Raffles Medical, Daidoh, Hanwha Corp

It’s just a question of when, not if, the bubble bursts for Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ), which is up 1,200% since it October 2023 IPO.
A Reuters article suggests a ¥500bn secondary offering for Honda Motor (7267 JP). Honda has since said there is smoke. And we can assume there is fire.
Loo Choon Yong, Raffles Medical Group (RFMD SP)‘s founder and major shareholder, continues to chip away at minorities, and now holds 54.944%,

Merger Arb Mondays (08 Jul) – China TCM, L’Occitane, A8 Media, GA Pack, Asia Cement, Hollysys, MMA

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK), China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK), A8 New Media (800 HK), Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK), Asia Cement China (743 HK).
Lowest spreads: Fancl Corp (4921 JP), Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP), Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP), Tatsuta Electric Wire & Cable (5809 JP), Kfc Holdings Japan (9873 JP).

S&P/ASX 100/200 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Potential Replacements for Altium (ALU AU)

With all regulatory approvals received, the Scheme Meeting for Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)‘ acquisition of Altium Ltd (ALU AU) will take place on 12 July.
If approved at the Scheme Meeting and at the Second Court Hearing, Altium Ltd (ALU AU) will stop trading from the close on 19 July.
The replacements for Altium Ltd (ALU AU) in the ASX100/200 indices could be announced late this week with implementation at the close on 19 July.

Timee (215A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

Timee Inc (215A JP), a leading part-time job platform in Japan, is seeking to raise up to US$286 million. Book-building runs from 9 to 23 July.
We previously discussed the IPO in Timee (215A JP) IPO: The Bull Case and Timee (215A JP) IPO: The Bear Case.
In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that Timee is attractively valued at the IPO price range in the context of the forecasted growth.

Timee Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation – Primed for a Decent Upside at the Current Range

By Clarence Chu

Timee Inc (215A JP) is looking to raise US$290m in its Japan IPO. The IPO will be a 100% secondary selldown by existing shareholders.
Timee operates an on-demand staffing platform that connects part-time jobseekers with businesses in Japan.
In an earlier note, we looked at the firm’s past performance and peer comparison. In this note, we discuss our thoughts on valuation.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 5 Jul 2024); SOE Bank and SOE Petro-Energy Flows Dominate

SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$10.9bn this week, on smallish two-way volumes. Banks were a big buy.
The more I watch, the more I think the last few months have had serious national team buying of banks and energy, perhaps ahead of shareholder return policy changes.
But valuations are acceptable. Flows are good. Policy changes are afoot. SOUTHBOUND may continue to see inflows – national team and otherwise.

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Jul 07

Most Read: Hanwha Aerospace, Hanwha Corporation, Aisin , Mitsui Matsushima, Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index, Tesla , Hang Seng Index, L’Occitane, ASM Pacific Technology, Shift Up and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

What Did NPS Buy and Sell in Korean Stock Market in 2Q 2024?
Hanwha Corp Tender Offer Details & Arbitrage Trading Assessment
Aisin (7259 JP): The Current Playbook
JAPAN ACTIVISM: Murakami Target Mitsui Matsushima Cleans Up
Impact of Kim Byung-Hwan’s Appointment as Korea FSC Chairman on Value-Up Policy
Outpacing Delivery Expectations Sends Shares Soaring. Is Tesla the Most Undervalued AI Name?
EQD | Will the HSI Keep Falling In July?
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Sermsuk, L’Occitane, Shinko Electric, MMA Offshore, Hollysys
Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep 24: Reference Period Over; One Change Likely; US$733mn One-Way
Shift Up IPO: Final Allocation Results, Lockup Release Schedule, & Index Float Rates

What Did NPS Buy and Sell in Korean Stock Market in 2Q 2024?

By Douglas Kim

On 4 July, NPS disclosed the details of the ownership changes for 112 listed companies in Korea, of which 87 were listed in KOSPI and 25 in KOSDAQ.
In 2Q 2024, the NPS reduced its investments in defense and military stocks and increased investments in cosmetics, shipbuilding, and food companies in Korea.
NPS reduced its capital allocation to the military & defense sector. NPS reduced its stake in LIG Nex1 (-2.32%), Poongsan Corp (-2.24%), and Hanwha Aerospace (-1.02%).

Hanwha Corp Tender Offer Details & Arbitrage Trading Assessment

Hanwha Energy, wholly owned by the Hanwha Group’s owning family, announced a tender offer for an 8% stake in Hanwha Corp at ₩30,000. The tender period is until July 24.
Hanwha Energy will buy all shares if tendered less than planned, otherwise pro-rata. Payment in cash eliminates cancellation risk but poses allocation risk.
Approximately 10-15% of shares are likely to be the potential ceiling for tendering, minimizing allocation risk for the 8% target. A widening spread of 2-3% could offer arbitrage opportunities.

Aisin (7259 JP): The Current Playbook

Since the US$1.1 billion secondary placement announcement, Aisin (7259 JP)’s shares are up 2.5% from the undisturbed price of JPY5,243 per share (27 June).
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Aisin’s shares have deviated from the pattern of previous large placements.
The offering will likely be priced on 8 July. Investors who have participated in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.

JAPAN ACTIVISM: Murakami Target Mitsui Matsushima Cleans Up

On 20 May, I wrote that Japanese activist MURAKAMI Yoshiaki and relations/affiliates had gone from 5% to 20% of Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) in 5 trading days.
I wondered if it was real, or a pump & dump, but they went to near 30% in following days. THEN they drifted off as Murakami-Fille sold while Murakami-Père bought.
The reasoning was not clear, but the story had real potential. Still does. Today, shareholders got more good news.

Impact of Kim Byung-Hwan’s Appointment as Korea FSC Chairman on Value-Up Policy

Kim Byung-hwan addressed criticism of weak incentives in tax support for the value-up policy, emphasizing boosting dividends. His background suggests effective advocacy for tax reforms in his new role.
He prioritized abolishing the FIIT in the National Assembly, citing its hindrance to capital market liquidity and investment promotion, indicating a robust approach to the value-up policy.
Kim’s appointment as FSC Chairman signals the government’s commitment to advancing the value-up policy. He emphasizes boosting dividends and aligning tax policies accordingly, shaping trading strategies toward dividend-expanding companies.

Outpacing Delivery Expectations Sends Shares Soaring. Is Tesla the Most Undervalued AI Name?

By Uttkarsh Kohli

Tesla delivered 443,956 vehicles in Q2 with production of 410,831 vehicles. It deployed a quarterly record of 9.4 GW hours of battery storage, its best quarter ever.
Tesla delivered 443,956 vehicles in Q2 with production of 410,831 vehicles. It deployed a quarterly record of 9.4 GW hours of battery storage, its best quarter ever.
Future remains uncertain for Tesla and its investors. Tesla shares are pricing in the launch of a lower priced model and Tesla’s Robotaxi on 8/8.

EQD | Will the HSI Keep Falling In July?

By Nico Rosti

After an explosive rally in April, the Hang Seng Index has been in a downtrend since mid-May, many are wondering where the index is headed next.
July 2024, based on our seasonal pattern analysis, does not have a great chance to close higher (it could, but the odds are not good).
If the index goes down in the next 2 weeks, buy the 17600-17300 price area.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Sermsuk, L’Occitane, Shinko Electric, MMA Offshore, Hollysys

I tally 49 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Just one new deal was discussed this week on Smartkarma: Sermsuk PCL (SSC TB)‘s Delisting Offer. There are also rumours of an Offer for Raffles Medical Group (RFMD SP).
Key updates took place on: L’Occitane (973 HK), Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP), MMA Offshore (MRM AU), and Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US).

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep 24: Reference Period Over; One Change Likely; US$733mn One-Way

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
The reference period for the September 2024 index rebal event is now complete. In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations for index changes.
Our current estimates suggest one-way flows due to index changes and capping could be around US$733mn but that could change by early September 2024.

Shift Up IPO: Final Allocation Results, Lockup Release Schedule, & Index Float Rates

Notably, local hedge funds receive significant allocation, nearly 10%, unusual for KOSPI IPOs this size, differing from HD Hyundai Marine Solution.
KOSPI 200’s initial float rate is 14%, rising to 58% in six months. MSCI starts at 8%, reaching 12% in six months and 25% in a year.
Differences from HD Hyundai Marine Solution include high short-term strategies among institutions. Unlike before, local pension funds receive substantial allocation, potentially affecting stock price post-listing.

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Jul 06

Most Read: Honda Motor, Robosense Technology, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Hanwha Corporation, Aisin , Mitsui Matsushima, Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index, SHEIN, J&T Global Express and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Big ¥500bn Honda (7267) Offering Is Small
Robosense IPO Lock-Up Expiry – US$2.8bn Lockup Expiry for 99% of the Stock, CCASS Movement
A Practical Guide to Create A Workable Electronic File for KOSPI 200 Rebalancing Simulation
Hanwha Corp Tender Offer Details & Arbitrage Trading Assessment
Aisin (7259 JP): The Current Playbook
Aisin Corp Placement – Follow Up – Could Fall into a Similar Fate as past Large JP Secondary Deals
JAPAN ACTIVISM: Murakami Target Mitsui Matsushima Cleans Up
Impact of Kim Byung-Hwan’s Appointment as Korea FSC Chairman on Value-Up Policy
SHEIN: Teaming up with Reliance Retail to Re-Enter India. A Win-Win Move
HK CEO & Director Dealings (5th Jul 2024): J&T Global Express, Flat Glass, Lifetech Scientific, PCCW

Big ¥500bn Honda (7267) Offering Is Small

Just pre-close on 2 July, Reuters carried an article suggesting a ¥500bn secondary offering in Honda Motor (7267 JP) as insurers sold. The stock fell 4% in minutes.
Honda semi-confirmed but it took two days to get to the details, now out. The stock climbed in the meantime.
At launch, this deal is two-thirds covered by buyback + passive demand but the supply is heavily-weighted to retail. Cheaper than it looks, lots of moving parts. Read the details!

Robosense IPO Lock-Up Expiry – US$2.8bn Lockup Expiry for 99% of the Stock, CCASS Movement

Robosense Technology (2498 HK) raised around US$126m in its Hong Kong IPO in Jan 2024. The lockup on its shareholders will expire soon.
The company provides LiDAR and perception solutions to its customers. As of March 2024, it had design wins for mass production of LiDAR products with 22 automotive OEMs and suppliers.
In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.

A Practical Guide to Create A Workable Electronic File for KOSPI 200 Rebalancing Simulation

Predicting KOSPI 200 rebalancing is straightforward, focusing on quantitative screening rather than qualitative factors, unlike other indices.
Accurate simulation of KOSPI 200 requires daily data on shares, volume, and prices for six months, typically sourced from KOSCOM due to limitations in free data access.
I plan to share a practical KOSPI 200 simulation file with Smartkarma readers, leveraging freely available data from Google Finance.

Hanwha Corp Tender Offer Details & Arbitrage Trading Assessment

Hanwha Energy, wholly owned by the Hanwha Group’s owning family, announced a tender offer for an 8% stake in Hanwha Corp at ₩30,000. The tender period is until July 24.
Hanwha Energy will buy all shares if tendered less than planned, otherwise pro-rata. Payment in cash eliminates cancellation risk but poses allocation risk.
Approximately 10-15% of shares are likely to be the potential ceiling for tendering, minimizing allocation risk for the 8% target. A widening spread of 2-3% could offer arbitrage opportunities.

Aisin (7259 JP): The Current Playbook

Since the US$1.1 billion secondary placement announcement, Aisin (7259 JP)’s shares are up 2.5% from the undisturbed price of JPY5,243 per share (27 June).
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Aisin’s shares have deviated from the pattern of previous large placements.
The offering will likely be priced on 8 July. Investors who have participated in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.

Aisin Corp Placement – Follow Up – Could Fall into a Similar Fate as past Large JP Secondary Deals

By Clarence Chu

Denso Corp (6902 JP), Toyota Motor (7203 JP) and Toyota Industries (6201 JP) are looking to raise US$1.1bn from selling some of their stakes in Aisin (7259 JP).
We have covered the background of the deal in our earlier note, Aisin Corp Placement – US$1.1bn Selldown by Toyota and DENSO.
In this note, we talk about the updates since and look at the performance of some of the past large Japan deals.

JAPAN ACTIVISM: Murakami Target Mitsui Matsushima Cleans Up

On 20 May, I wrote that Japanese activist MURAKAMI Yoshiaki and relations/affiliates had gone from 5% to 20% of Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) in 5 trading days.
I wondered if it was real, or a pump & dump, but they went to near 30% in following days. THEN they drifted off as Murakami-Fille sold while Murakami-Père bought.
The reasoning was not clear, but the story had real potential. Still does. Today, shareholders got more good news.

Impact of Kim Byung-Hwan’s Appointment as Korea FSC Chairman on Value-Up Policy

Kim Byung-hwan addressed criticism of weak incentives in tax support for the value-up policy, emphasizing boosting dividends. His background suggests effective advocacy for tax reforms in his new role.
He prioritized abolishing the FIIT in the National Assembly, citing its hindrance to capital market liquidity and investment promotion, indicating a robust approach to the value-up policy.
Kim’s appointment as FSC Chairman signals the government’s commitment to advancing the value-up policy. He emphasizes boosting dividends and aligning tax policies accordingly, shaping trading strategies toward dividend-expanding companies.

SHEIN: Teaming up with Reliance Retail to Re-Enter India. A Win-Win Move

By Devi Subhakesan

SHEIN’s fast-fashion apparel is set to hit India through Reliance Retail’s platforms, marking a major comeback after the 2020 ban.
This partnership could be a win-win, tapping into India’s booming fashion demand and offering Shein access to the world’s largest youth market, ahead of its proposed IPO.
With Shein’s affordable styles and Reliance’s extensive network, this alliance targets the youth market, challenging brands like Tata Group’s Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) owned Zudio.

HK CEO & Director Dealings (5th Jul 2024): J&T Global Express, Flat Glass, Lifetech Scientific, PCCW

The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. Or pledging. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.
The key stocks mentioned in this regular insight include: J&T Global Express (1519 HK), Flat Glass (6865 HK), Lifetech Scientific (1302 HK), and PCCW Ltd (8 HK).

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Jul 05

Most Read: China Traditional Chinese Medicine, Honda Motor, Toyota Motor, Daidoh Ltd, Douyu International Holdings, SUNWELS Co, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

China TCM (570.HK) Update – Behind The Share Price Plunge and Prospects for Privatization Progress
Big ¥500bn Honda (7267) Offering Is Small
Japan Cross-Shareholding – Summary Matrix – Over US$100bn of Selling in 118 Companies
JAPAN ACTIVISM: Strategic Capital Target Daido (3205) Now A Murakami Target Too
Screening For The Next Douyu (DOYU US)
Sunwels Co (9229) – Nursing Care Operator Offering and TOPIX Inclusion
Honda (7267 JP): A US$3.3 Billion Secondary Offering
Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJSGD SP): Cheaper than Peers with Index Inclusion Kicker
Honda Motor Placement – Large in Size, Relatively Small in Other Terms
A Practical Guide to Create A Workable Electronic File for KOSPI 200 Rebalancing Simulation

China TCM (570.HK) Update – Behind The Share Price Plunge and Prospects for Privatization Progress

The slow progress of privatization is related to recent high-level changes in CNPGC. Decisions on SOE deals with “strategic purpose” require careful considerations, not based on “one leader’s personal preferences”.
Based on public information, we cannot find convincing reason to prove that CNPGC has changed its mind.There’re rumors that China TCM’s privatization is still considered important project on the agenda.
China TCM’s has strong fundamentals to support valuation. If there is no announcement, the privatization process is expected to proceed as usual, and we continue to wait for the voting.

Big ¥500bn Honda (7267) Offering Is Small

Just pre-close on 2 July, Reuters carried an article suggesting a ¥500bn secondary offering in Honda Motor (7267 JP) as insurers sold. The stock fell 4% in minutes.
Honda semi-confirmed but it took two days to get to the details, now out. The stock climbed in the meantime.
At launch, this deal is two-thirds covered by buyback + passive demand but the supply is heavily-weighted to retail. Cheaper than it looks, lots of moving parts. Read the details!

Japan Cross-Shareholding – Summary Matrix – Over US$100bn of Selling in 118 Companies

Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding work, in this note we look to summarize our work so far by looking at where most of the selling will likely come.
Of the seven companies that we have looked at so far, collectively they have around US$102bn worth of shares to sell in 118 companies.
Of these, they have a combined stake of over US$1bn in 23 companies.

JAPAN ACTIVISM: Strategic Capital Target Daido (3205) Now A Murakami Target Too

Small cap Japanese manufacturer and purveyor of apparel Daidoh Ltd (3205 JP) has consistently been a target for value investors. In late 2022, Strategic Capital went over 5%.
They have bought more, and as of end-March, they declared 24.85% of TSO (28% of voting rights), but they have 33%. They made proposals for the AGM. They won one.
Now Murakami-san has bought in, going over 5%. This gets interesting. Together they have 39.4% as of last week, and probably more now. That should get them 50+% next AGM/EGM.

Screening For The Next Douyu (DOYU US)

In a particularly altruistic move, live-streaming game platform play Douyu International Holdings (DOYU US) announced a special cash dividend of US$9.76/share, vs. a last price of US$12.59.
The cash outlay is roughly US$308mn, and Douyu had cash (as at 1Q24) of US$936.6mn. And no debt. Founder/chairman/CEO Shaojie Chen (17.2% shareholder) will pocket a tidy ~US$53mn.
An outlier; or should we expect more of the same for other cash-rich US-listed China plays?

Sunwels Co (9229) – Nursing Care Operator Offering and TOPIX Inclusion

On 2 July 2024, nursing care operator SUNWELS Co (9229 JP) announced a sale of Treasury shares and newly-issued shares, and with it, a move to TSE Prime (therefore TOPIX)
The stock, of course, popped. The stock starts with VERY low float because the CEO and his company own 64% of shares out ex-treasury.
The offering is much larger than the TOPIX inclusion, so this is really more about the growth story.

Honda (7267 JP): A US$3.3 Billion Secondary Offering

Honda Motor (7267 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 298.9 million shares (including overallotment). At the close, the offer, including overallotment, is worth JPY535 billion (US$3.3 million).
The offering is another sign that the unwinding of cross-shareholdings is catching pace as part of Japan’s corporate governance reforms.
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 17 and 22 July (likely 17 July).

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJSGD SP): Cheaper than Peers with Index Inclusion Kicker

The rally in Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJSGD SP) over the last month should result in the stock being added to global passive portfolios late next month.
Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJSGD SP) trades cheaper than peers on forward PE but there has been a big rally in the stock over the last month.
There has been an increase in cumulative excess volume since mid-May and there will be positioning for the event, but there could be further gains in the stock.

Honda Motor Placement – Large in Size, Relatively Small in Other Terms

A group of shareholders aims to raise up to US$3.2bn via selling around 5% of Honda Motor (7267 JP) .
The possibility of such a selldown was flagged earlier in the week by Reuters. Thus, the deal is well flagged.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

A Practical Guide to Create A Workable Electronic File for KOSPI 200 Rebalancing Simulation

Predicting KOSPI 200 rebalancing is straightforward, focusing on quantitative screening rather than qualitative factors, unlike other indices.
Accurate simulation of KOSPI 200 requires daily data on shares, volume, and prices for six months, typically sourced from KOSCOM due to limitations in free data access.
I plan to share a practical KOSPI 200 simulation file with Smartkarma readers, leveraging freely available data from Google Finance.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
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✓ Company Analytics and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jul 04

Most Read: Honda Motor, HDFC Bank, China Traditional Chinese Medicine, Stella International, Timee Inc, ASM Pacific Technology, Shinko Electric Industries, ESR Group , Barito Renewables Energy and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

BIG ¥500bn Honda (7267) Offering Coming?
HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Foreign Room Crosses 25%; Index Implications & Positioning for US$5bn+ Buying
China TCM (570.HK) Update – Behind The Share Price Plunge and Prospects for Privatization Progress
HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September
Timee (215A JP) IPO: The Bull Case
HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: ASM Pacific (522) Could Replace Ping An Health (1833); US$1bn Trade
Shinko Electric (6967) – Break/Gap Risk Early July 2024 Update
ESR Group (1821 HK): Consortium’s Expansion Talks Suggest Progress
StubWorld: Barito Renewables (BREN IJ) – This Too Shall Pop
Korean Government Announces Corporate and Dividend Tax Incentives Under Corporate Value Up Program

BIG ¥500bn Honda (7267) Offering Coming?

Today just before the close, Reuters came out with an article saying Japan’s four major insurers and some financial institutions would offer ¥500bn of shares in a secondary offering.
That implies about 275-280mm shares (insurers hold ~195mm). In May, Honda announced a ¥300bn buyback with earnings, with nothing done so far.
The supply/demand dynamics here are key. There are a lot of moving parts over time. Honda is cheaper than it looks but there are moving parts there too.

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Foreign Room Crosses 25%; Index Implications & Positioning for US$5bn+ Buying

Foreign shareholding in HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) has dropped to 54.83% and that results in foreign room crossing the ‘magical’ 25% mark.
The increase in foreign room could lead to passive trackers of a global index needing to buy 256m shares (US$5.3bn; 11.5x ADV) at the end of August.
There will definitely be positioning in the stock but there should still be upside in the stock. The HDFC Bank (ADR) (HDB US) line was up 4.5% overnight.

China TCM (570.HK) Update – Behind The Share Price Plunge and Prospects for Privatization Progress

The slow progress of privatization is related to recent high-level changes in CNPGC. Decisions on SOE deals with “strategic purpose” require careful considerations, not based on “one leader’s personal preferences”.
Based on public information, we cannot find convincing reason to prove that CNPGC has changed its mind.There’re rumors that China TCM’s privatization is still considered important project on the agenda.
China TCM’s has strong fundamentals to support valuation. If there is no announcement, the privatization process is expected to proceed as usual, and we continue to wait for the voting.

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September

We see 37 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 25 potential deletes (on market cap and liquidity) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September.
We expect 32 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 24 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.

Timee (215A JP) IPO: The Bull Case

Timee Inc (215A JP), a leading part-time job platform in Japan, is seeking to raise up to US$286 million. Book-building runs from 9 to 23 July.
Timee’s app allows users to work shifts as short as one hour at restaurants, convenience stores, and hotels, with quick payment for their work.
The bull case rests on favourable market trends, best-in-class revenue growth, good retention rates, credible growth drivers, and top-quartile EBITDA margins.

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: ASM Pacific (522) Could Replace Ping An Health (1833); US$1bn Trade

ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK) is expected to replace Ping An Healthcare and Technol (1833 HK) in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) at the September rebalance.
Constituent changes and capping changes will result in a one-way turnover of 3.7% and that will result in a round-trip trade of HK$7.8bn (US$1bn).
Short interest is near the lows on both stocks but there has been a recent tick higher for ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK).

Shinko Electric (6967) – Break/Gap Risk Early July 2024 Update

When this deal was announced, it was light. But the timing, JSR influence, large-ish float, ensured FUD would make this trade wide. It traded wider.
Nearly 6mos ago, Shinko had much-underperformed peer Ibiden, meaning downside gap risk from undisturbed was negative as spreads were wide. I reco’d a buy. Then 16+wks ago, recommended taking profits.
Shinko had outperformed Ibiden, gross spreads had narrowed 5+% on JSR approval. Gross spread is now 4.6% but time is shorter so annualised is 10+% even out to December launch.

ESR Group (1821 HK): Consortium’s Expansion Talks Suggest Progress

Bloomberg reports that the bidding consortium is in talks to bring in other partners, such as QIA, PIF, and CPP Investment Board, to aid in privatising ESR Group (1821 HK).
Warburg Pincus and OMERS have blocking stakes for a Cayman scheme. Warburg Pincus is seemingly supportive, and the consortium’s expansion talks suggest confidence in meeting OMERS’ price expectations.
Our best guess is that an offer is around HK$14.00. ESR’s current valuation is undemanding, with its forward EV/EBITDA multiple at a 40% discount compared to the median peers’ multiple.

StubWorld: Barito Renewables (BREN IJ) – This Too Shall Pop