Most Read

In early February, Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) made an unsolicited bid for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) at ¥4,300/share. They had approached in October 2024, and continued approaches through end-January.
Shibaura’s bankers approached Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) in January. Due diligence, then bids. They bid ¥4,600. Not enough said the SC. Then Trump. Then ¥4,400. Now ¥4,500 accepted 9 April.
But Trump tariffs relief came 9 April US time. And the Offer Price is below the mid-point of ALL three different financial advisors. I think this is not done yet.

Tsuruha (3391) – Welcia (3141) – Tsuruha Earnings In a Week – Still Good To Be Long The Ratio

Tsuruha and Welcia are on the road to a merger, where Tsuruha takes over Welcia but Aeon ends up owning “more than 50% but less than 51%” of Tsuruha.
The Price Ratio is now 4.24x. Trailing EPS ratios is >5. Forward EPS ratios are further above 5. BVPS ratio? Near 5. Welcia grows storecount. Tsuruha makes more money/store.
Tsuruha changed its FY-end to match that of Welcia/Aeon so both will report earnings/guidance in just over 3 weeks. That will likely influence the ratio.

China ETF Inflows & Implications: Central Huijin’s Huge Buying

Nearly US$22bn has flowed into mainland China listed ETFs over the last 3 trading days, reversing outflows that started in mid February.
Central Huijin has announced that it will be increasing its ETF holdings to maintain smooth operation of China’s capital markets. The rest of the National Team will be buying too.
There are multiple implications of the huge ETF creations in a short time frame and a reversal of flows will lead to a reversion in a bunch of trades.

Korea Short Selling: Biggest Changes in Shorts & Trade Performance

The resumption of short selling in Korea came at a good time for investors, giving them some additional tools to manage market volatility.
Short interest has increased from 0.17% to 0.23% of market cap for the KOSPI market and from 0.46% to 0.63% for the KOSDAR market.
The KOSPI/KOSDAQ ratio has reverted a bit on profit taking, and the forecast index deletions have recovered a bit but should continue to see increase short interest.

Corporate Act Amendment Takes Unexpected Turn: Watch for Holdco Momentum Plays Post-June Election

The word on the street is the Dems are banking on their candidate winning in June, then clearing the veto and pushing the Corporate Act amendment through immediately.
What seemed like a dead issue for the Corporate Act amendment has turned into a surprise, shifting market momentum and potentially impacting the Korean stock scene.
It could shift the Korean market’s focus to long-term governance improvements, targeting major holdcos like CJ, Hanwha, GS, Doosan, Mobis, SK, and Samsung C&T, with June’s election key.

Chagee Holdings IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Chagee Holdings is target price of $46.7 per share, representing 67% higher than the high end of the IPO price range ($28 per share).
Our base case valuation is based on a P/E of 21.4x on our estimated net profit of 2.9 billion RMB in 2025.
We used a very conservative valuation multiple, mainly due to the extremely high macro risks related to the ongoing tariff dispute between China and the United States.

Clearing Up the Confusion: Ex-Rights Trading in Korean Rights Offerings

Not much juice at ex-rights — price move’s small, and shorting’s risky with recall risk and having to compensate the lender for lost rights.
Some locals chase rights instead, but it’s not really a go-to trade with all the cost/efficiency uncertainty.
First round price pre–ex-rights sets the floor for arb margins and anchors rights pricing once they start trading — key level to keep in the playbook.

Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA): Chinese Tea Company Moves Forward with IPO Despite Macro Risks

By IPO Boutique

Chinese Tea Company is moving ahead with the IPO despite heavy Macro-Economic winds.
The company is seeking up to $412m with a high-end pricing and already includes $205m worth of buying on the cover of the prospectus.
There are. more questions than answers regarding this IPO due to the current uncertainty in the market.

Chagee IPO: Trading at a Discount to Peers but with Geopolitical Overhang

By Nicholas Tan

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) is looking to raise up to US$411m in its upcoming US IPO.
It is a leading premium tea drinks brand, serving healthy and delicious freshly-made tea drinks.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and provided our initial thoughts on valuations. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

UK: GDP Seasonal Surge Before Slowing

Fundamental causes should not be assigned to UK GDP surging far beyond consensus expectations again in February, despite the notability of Q1 growth tracking 0.7% q-o-q.
Residual seasonality has dominated the post-pandemic growth profile, and the recent resilience merely matches it. Stagnation for the rest of the year is the consequence.
Disruptive and volatile US trade policy will also depress the underlying economic trend beneath the spurious seasonals. We now bake both more fully into our modal forecasts.

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Apr 11

Most Read: Seven & I Holdings, Canvest Environmental Protection Group, Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index, Shibaura Electronics, Jinhong Gas , HKBN Ltd, Posco Future M, CJ Corp, De Grey Mining and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

7&I (3382) – FY24 Better, FY25 OK, Surprisingly Large Buyback
Canvest (1381 HK): Precondition Satisfied
China ETF Inflows & Implications: Central Huijin’s Huge Buying
Minebea Mitsumi Overbids Yageo for Shibaura Electronics (6957)
STAR Chip Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in June
HKBN (1310 HK): TPG Cashes In Early
Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Minebea Mitsumi’s (6479 JP) White Knight Tender Offer at JPY4,500
Korea Short Selling: Biggest Changes in Shorts & Trade Performance
Corporate Act Amendment Takes Unexpected Turn: Watch for Holdco Momentum Plays Post-June Election
Quiddity Leaderboard MV Jr-Gold Miners Jun25: Flow Expectations

7&I (3382) – FY24 Better, FY25 OK, Surprisingly Large Buyback

Today, Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) reported full-year earnings. The FY2025 guidance looks OK. Not overly exciting. Optically, it falls short, but 7&i guidance includes York only for H1.
The basic outlines of strategy in the Presentation are unchanged from the 6 March strategy report. The company seems convinced an IPO of SEI is a good thing. I’m underwhelmed.
The company also announced that it would bring forward ¥600bn of its planned 6-year ¥2trln buyback program, and execute it this year. That’s good.

Canvest (1381 HK): Precondition Satisfied

Grandblue Environment Co A (600323 CH) has satisfied the precondition related to its privatisation offer for Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK).
The offer remains attractive despite the re-rating of peers since announcing the deal. The vote risk is low as the two shareholders holding blocking stakes will be supportive.
This is a done deal. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread for a mid-June payment is 3.8%/13.0%.

China ETF Inflows & Implications: Central Huijin’s Huge Buying

Nearly US$22bn has flowed into mainland China listed ETFs over the last 3 trading days, reversing outflows that started in mid February.
Central Huijin has announced that it will be increasing its ETF holdings to maintain smooth operation of China’s capital markets. The rest of the National Team will be buying too.
There are multiple implications of the huge ETF creations in a short time frame and a reversal of flows will lead to a reversion in a bunch of trades.

Minebea Mitsumi Overbids Yageo for Shibaura Electronics (6957)

In early February, Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) made an unsolicited bid for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) at ¥4,300/share. They had approached in October 2024, and continued approaches through end-January.
Shibaura’s bankers approached Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) in January. Due diligence, then bids. They bid ¥4,600. Not enough said the SC. Then Trump. Then ¥4,400. Now ¥4,500 accepted 9 April.
But Trump tariffs relief came 9 April US time. And the Offer Price is below the mid-point of ALL three different financial advisors. I think this is not done yet.

STAR Chip Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in June

There could be 1 constituent change for the STAR Chip Index at the June rebalance. There will also be a few capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.1% resulting in a round-trip trade of CNY 1.04bn (US$141m). Passives need to trade between 0.65-1.65x ADV in the potential changes.
Jinhong Gas (688106 CH) is also a potential delete from the STAR100 Index and that will lead to increased passive selling in the stock.

HKBN (1310 HK): TPG Cashes In Early

Back in December, China Mobile (941 HK) made a pre-conditional HK$5.23/share voluntary Offer for HKBN (1310 HK). The wild card is whether I Squared launches a counter-proposal.
This transaction has no shortage of intriguing developments. Last month, MBK mysteriously converted its VLNs. Now TPG has entered into an SPA with Mobile to sell its 15.46% stake.
IF I Squared were to make a counter-proposal, I doubt it would secure the necessary regulatory approvals. Evidently TPG is not waiting around to find out.

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Minebea Mitsumi’s (6479 JP) White Knight Tender Offer at JPY4,500

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) announced a preconditional tender offer from Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) at JPY4,500 per share, a 4.7% premium to Yageo Corporation (2327 TT)’s JPY4,300 hostile offer.
The offer is scheduled to start on 23 April, ahead of Yageo’s 7 May start. The Board intends to recommend the Minebea offer and oppose the Yageo offer.
Due to its low premium to the Yageo offer, at least another bidding round is highly probable, and the Minebea offer is below the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation.

Korea Short Selling: Biggest Changes in Shorts & Trade Performance

The resumption of short selling in Korea came at a good time for investors, giving them some additional tools to manage market volatility.
Short interest has increased from 0.17% to 0.23% of market cap for the KOSPI market and from 0.46% to 0.63% for the KOSDAR market.
The KOSPI/KOSDAQ ratio has reverted a bit on profit taking, and the forecast index deletions have recovered a bit but should continue to see increase short interest.

Corporate Act Amendment Takes Unexpected Turn: Watch for Holdco Momentum Plays Post-June Election

The word on the street is the Dems are banking on their candidate winning in June, then clearing the veto and pushing the Corporate Act amendment through immediately.
What seemed like a dead issue for the Corporate Act amendment has turned into a surprise, shifting market momentum and potentially impacting the Korean stock scene.
It could shift the Korean market’s focus to long-term governance improvements, targeting major holdcos like CJ, Hanwha, GS, Doosan, Mobis, SK, and Samsung C&T, with June’s election key.

Quiddity Leaderboard MV Jr-Gold Miners Jun25: Flow Expectations

The MV Jr-Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
This index is reviewed semiannually in March and September. There will be no index changes for the June 2025 index rebal event but there will be capping flows.
We expect one-way flows of US$81mm for June 2025 which translates to a turnover of 1.4%.

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Apr 10

Most Read: Bestechnic Shanghai , De Grey Mining, ESR Group , Seven & I Holdings, CK Hutchison Holdings, Daihatsu Diesel Mfg, HKBN Ltd, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, YG Entertainment, Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Central Huijin’s ETF Creations Skew Performance
Aussie Arbs: Trump Tariffs And MACs
Hong Kong Arbs: (Largely) Immune From Trump Tariffs
7&I (3382) – FY24 Better, FY25 OK, Surprisingly Large Buyback
CK Hutch (1 HK): Back To Square One
USTR Hearings on Section 301 China Maritime Dominance – Fees on Chinese Ships
HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Agrees to Acquire TPG’s Stake
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Near Short Level; ASE & ChipMOS Spreads Good Short Levels
June Value-Up Rebalance: Hype Fading, But Key Flags Remain
China ETF Inflows & Implications: Central Huijin’s Huge Buying

STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Central Huijin’s ETF Creations Skew Performance

Nearing the end of the review period, we forecast 1 change for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 4 changes for the STAR100 Index in June.
We estimate turnover of 1.9% for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 4.5% for the STAR100 Index. The estimated round-trip trade is CNY 7.5bn (US$1.02bn).
Large ETF inflows could have led to the recent underperformance of a long add/ short delete trade. That could reverse once markets stabilize or when the passives trade the rebalance.

Aussie Arbs: Trump Tariffs And MACs

Travis Lundy succinctly summarised the Trump Tariffs in Trump Team’s Weird Tariff Math – Not Meant to Be Negotiated. Do read his note.
From an arb standpoint, most (all?) NBIOs will likely see a downward revision in pricing. Vote risk should also be reduced.
Such tariffs on predominantly domestic businesses should not trigger material adverse changes (MACs) Down Under. But it is still a worthwhile project to dig a little deeper.

Hong Kong Arbs: (Largely) Immune From Trump Tariffs

In Aussie Arbs: Trump Tariffs And MACs, I ran a ruler over the fifteen live deals Down Under, and how they may be affected by the Trump Tariffs.
This insight canvasses the ongoing Hong Kong arbs and wording surrounding material adverse changes (MACs). Hong Kong MACs are typically less onerous, and lack specificity, versus Aussie arbs.
Although the framework exists for an Offeror to enforce a MAC, I’m not aware of any evidence of this occurring under Hong Kong’s Takeovers Code.

7&I (3382) – FY24 Better, FY25 OK, Surprisingly Large Buyback

Today, Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) reported full-year earnings. The FY2025 guidance looks OK. Not overly exciting. Optically, it falls short, but 7&i guidance includes York only for H1.
The basic outlines of strategy in the Presentation are unchanged from the 6 March strategy report. The company seems convinced an IPO of SEI is a good thing. I’m underwhelmed.
The company also announced that it would bring forward ¥600bn of its planned 6-year ¥2trln buyback program, and execute it this year. That’s good.

CK Hutch (1 HK): Back To Square One

The irony is that CKH (1 HK)‘s Panama-port sale was probably prompted, at least in part, by a desire to get out of a situation which was becoming increasingly political.
Instead, it has thrust the company right into the heart of it. And the share price has now given up all of its initial gains. And then some.
After Panama’s Attorney General recently determined CK Hutchison’s concessions were unconstitutional, the Comptroller-General has now announced that an audit had found “many breaches” of the concession.

USTR Hearings on Section 301 China Maritime Dominance – Fees on Chinese Ships

The original issues were discussed in depth in The USTR’s New “Proposed Actions” For Section 301 Investigation on China’s Maritime/Shipping Sectors (now unpaywalled). Hearings took place 24-26 March 2025.
The hearings were long, and comments were predictable. Those supporting the measures offered evidence which was simply incorrect. Those against tried. Post-hearing comments were due 2 April.
We don’t yet know what will happen, but if they stay in place, starting 17 April, US exports of grain/pulses, coal, etc will suffer. Imports will see higher costs too.

HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Agrees to Acquire TPG’s Stake

China Mobile (941 HK) has entered a share purchase agreement to acquire TPG’s HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) shares and vendor loan note conversion shares by 28 November.
On completion, TPG will be released from its irrevocable, which has a competing offer clause. China Mobile’s agreement signals its expectation that I Squared will launch a competing proposal.
The agreement will not change I Squared’s approach as it would not negatively impact regulatory approvals (a key risk) or prevent it from meeting a 50% minimum tendering condition.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Near Short Level; ASE & ChipMOS Spreads Good Short Levels

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC: +18.9% Premium; Soon at a Good Level to Short the Spread
ASE: +6.5% Premium; Good Level to Short the Spread Given Trading Range Breakdown
ChipMOS: +6.6% Premium; 2% And Higher Good Level to Short the Spread

June Value-Up Rebalance: Hype Fading, But Key Flags Remain

June rebalance drops mid-May, goes live post-KOSPI 200 expiry. Back to 100 names—net outflow setup with more deletes than adds. ETFs rebalance into June 12 close.
KRX confirmed 10 special entries for June; results likely out in May with Value-Up rebalance. 12 protected names stay. Stocks over 10% weight, like Samsung and SK Hynix, remain.
Value-Up disclosure isn’t mandatory yet—rule starts June 2026. But compliant firms get a screening boost. Around 76 spots remain, filled via quant screen after excluding 24 protected names.

China ETF Inflows & Implications: Central Huijin’s Huge Buying

Nearly US$22bn has flowed into mainland China listed ETFs over the last 3 trading days, reversing outflows that started in mid February.
Central Huijin has announced that it will be increasing its ETF holdings to maintain smooth operation of China’s capital markets. The rest of the National Team will be buying too.
There are multiple implications of the huge ETF creations in a short time frame and a reversal of flows will lead to a reversion in a bunch of trades.

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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
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✓ Company Analytics and News
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Apr 09

Most Read: ESR Group , Mitsubishi Corp, Suzuki Motor, Bestechnic Shanghai , Tokyo Metro, SK Inc, Hanwha Aerospace, Duality Biotherapeutics and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

HK Merger Arb: Opportunities Amidst the Market Selloff
Hong Kong Arbs: (Largely) Immune From Trump Tariffs
MitCorp (8058) BIG Buyback – Share Demand Will Help Weather The Storm
Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) Placement: Limited Index Buying & Weak Markets Could Pressure Stock
STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Central Huijin’s ETF Creations Skew Performance
TOPIX Index Upweights: Great Hit Rate; Strong Trade Performance; A Rare Win!
UK: Spillover effects from US tariffs
Key Implications of SK Inc’s Disposal of SK Siltron
Hanwha Aerospace – Lowers Rights Offering Capital Raise Amount To 2.3 Trillion Won
Duality Biotherapeutics (映恩生物) IPO: Valuation Upside at Risk

HK Merger Arb: Opportunities Amidst the Market Selloff

The gross spreads of large HK merger arb situations have increased due to the unfortunate fallout from Trump’s trade war. The HSI closed down 13.2%.
We assess the widening spreads of HK’s merger arb situations based on offer structure, preconditions, conditions, and other factors.
The deals, ranked in terms of increasing deal risk, are Tam Jai, Soundwill, Vesync, Goldlion, Canvest, ESR, OneConnect, HKBN, and ENN Energy.

Hong Kong Arbs: (Largely) Immune From Trump Tariffs

In Aussie Arbs: Trump Tariffs And MACs, I ran a ruler over the fifteen live deals Down Under, and how they may be affected by the Trump Tariffs.
This insight canvasses the ongoing Hong Kong arbs and wording surrounding material adverse changes (MACs). Hong Kong MACs are typically less onerous, and lack specificity, versus Aussie arbs.
Although the framework exists for an Offeror to enforce a MAC, I’m not aware of any evidence of this occurring under Hong Kong’s Takeovers Code.

MitCorp (8058) BIG Buyback – Share Demand Will Help Weather The Storm

On 3 April mid-day, Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP) announced its FY25 earnings guidance and new “Shareholder Return Strategy”, a ¥1 trillion buyback, and its “Corporate Strategy 2027” Mid-Term Management Plan.
The FY25 forecast is for a third consecutive decline in underlying operating cashflow, but a hike in dividend from ¥100 to ¥110 and a ¥1trln share buyback, including ¥230bn tender.
The combination of dividend and buyback should be 15% of market cap over the next 12mos. And I expect Warren Buffett will consider buying dips.

Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) Placement: Limited Index Buying & Weak Markets Could Pressure Stock

Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire Insurance and Sompo Japan Insurance are looking to offload their entire stakes in Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) by way of a secondary offering.
With the size of the secondary offering less than 5% of the number of shares, there could be no index buying in the short-term and that will pressure the stock.
If the overallotment option is exercised and the seller of the shares is currently considered as non-float, there could be small passive buying in the short-term.

STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Central Huijin’s ETF Creations Skew Performance

Nearing the end of the review period, we forecast 1 change for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 4 changes for the STAR100 Index in June.
We estimate turnover of 1.9% for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 4.5% for the STAR100 Index. The estimated round-trip trade is CNY 7.5bn (US$1.02bn).
Large ETF inflows could have led to the recent underperformance of a long add/ short delete trade. That could reverse once markets stabilize or when the passives trade the rebalance.

TOPIX Index Upweights: Great Hit Rate; Strong Trade Performance; A Rare Win!

In the TOPIX Index, some “low liquidity” names carry a liquidity factor of 0.75x resulting in their actual index weights being smaller than their default weights.
These names are reviewed every April and if the liquidity factor of a stock gets removed, the stock will see index inflows from passive trackers of TOPIX.
The results for April 2025 liquidity factor removal have been confirmed and we achieved very high hit rates for our High and Medium conviction baskets.

UK: Spillover effects from US tariffs

The UK output destroyed by reciprocal US tariffs is only partly due to the direct impact of the new 10% rate (worth ~0.2% of GDP) and generally weaker US prospects (0.1%).
Global GDP growth is depressed by this policy, indirectly destroying demand for UK exports from elsewhere (0.2%), especially if countries harm themselves by retaliating.
An overall 0.6% GDP hit has two-sided risks and a skew lowered by likely negotiations. Fears of items dumping into the UK market are overblown excuses for protectionism.

Key Implications of SK Inc’s Disposal of SK Siltron

SK Inc is selling SK Siltron to cut its 68% debt-to-equity ratio. The sale could reduce borrowings below ₩5T and lower debt ratio to 30-40%.
Chey Tae-won’s divorce lawsuit risks his majority stake in SK Inc. Selling Siltron helps raise ₩1T for alimony without touching his SK Inc shares, potentially reducing the holding company discount.
SK Inc-SK Square merger is unlikely soon, despite asset sales and preparation on both sides, as SK Square recently reaffirmed no current merger plans. Setting a position now seems premature.

Hanwha Aerospace – Lowers Rights Offering Capital Raise Amount To 2.3 Trillion Won

On 8 April, Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS) announced that it plans to lower its rights offering capital raise amount from 3.6 trillion won to 2.3 trillion won (US$1.6 billion).
The remaining 1.3 trillion won will be secured through a third-party allocation paid-in capital increase targeting three companies, including Hanwha Energy, Hanwha Impact Partners, and Hanwha Energy Singapore.
Hanwha Aerospace disclosed today that it expects sales of 30 trillion won (58% higher than consensus) and operating profit of 3 trillion won (20% higher than consensus) in 2025.

Duality Biotherapeutics (映恩生物) IPO: Valuation Upside at Risk

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Duality, a China-based clinical-stage biotechnology company, launched its IPO to raise up to US$200m via a Hong Kong listing.
We look at the deal dynamics and latest developments in the biotech sector.
The deal initially presented upside for investors but there’s a portion of its valuation now at risk due to the latest development.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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✓ Personalised Alerts
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Apr 08

Most Read: ESR Group , De Grey Mining, Suzuki Motor, Treasury Wine Estates, Mitsubishi Corp, Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders , Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index, Wonik Ips and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

HK Merger Arb: Opportunities Amidst the Market Selloff
Aussie Arbs: Trump Tariffs And MACs
Suzuki Motor Placement – Not the Best Time for a US$1.15bn Deal. It Will Be a Long Week.
Treasury Wine Estates (TWE AU): Passive Selling Adds to Tariff Woes
Suzuki Motor (7269 JP): A US$1.1 Billion Secondary Offering
MitCorp (8058) BIG Buyback – Share Demand Will Help Weather The Storm
US vs EU: Worse to Come
Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders (MAZDOCKS IN): OFS & Potential Global Index Inclusion
CSI 300 Index Outlook After Trump’s Threat of 50% Tariff on China
Watch This Friday’s TIGER Top 10 Semicon Rebalance

HK Merger Arb: Opportunities Amidst the Market Selloff

The gross spreads of large HK merger arb situations have increased due to the unfortunate fallout from Trump’s trade war. The HSI closed down 13.2%.
We assess the widening spreads of HK’s merger arb situations based on offer structure, preconditions, conditions, and other factors.
The deals, ranked in terms of increasing deal risk, are Tam Jai, Soundwill, Vesync, Goldlion, Canvest, ESR, OneConnect, HKBN, and ENN Energy.

Aussie Arbs: Trump Tariffs And MACs

Travis Lundy succinctly summarised the Trump Tariffs in Trump Team’s Weird Tariff Math – Not Meant to Be Negotiated. Do read his note.
From an arb standpoint, most (all?) NBIOs will likely see a downward revision in pricing. Vote risk should also be reduced.
Such tariffs on predominantly domestic businesses should not trigger material adverse changes (MACs) Down Under. But it is still a worthwhile project to dig a little deeper.

Suzuki Motor Placement – Not the Best Time for a US$1.15bn Deal. It Will Be a Long Week.

By Sumeet Singh

Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP) and Sompo Holdings (8630 JP) aim to raise around US1.15bn (including over-allotment) via selling around 5% of Suzuki Motor (7269 JP).
While Suzuki doesn’t have much direct exposure to the US markets, its shares have still corrected in line with other auto players.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Treasury Wine Estates (TWE AU): Passive Selling Adds to Tariff Woes

Given its portfolio mix, Treasury Wine Estates (TWE AU) does not expect a material impact on its business from the blanket 10% tariff on all goods imported from Australia/New Zealand.
However, there is a high probability that Treasury Wine Estates (TWE AU) will be deleted from a global index in May and that will lead to large selling from passives.
There has been an increase in short interest and an increase in other positioning. Trading will be volatile but there could be a downward bias over the next few weeks.

Suzuki Motor (7269 JP): A US$1.1 Billion Secondary Offering

Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 95.7 million shares (110.1 million including overallotment), worth around US$1.1 billion (US$1.3 billion including overallotment).
Suzuki’s goal with the secondary offering is (i) to reduce cross-shareholdings and (ii) to expand and diversify the shareholder base, which should further enhance liquidity.
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 21 and 23 April (likely 21 April).

MitCorp (8058) BIG Buyback – Share Demand Will Help Weather The Storm

On 3 April mid-day, Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP) announced its FY25 earnings guidance and new “Shareholder Return Strategy”, a ¥1 trillion buyback, and its “Corporate Strategy 2027” Mid-Term Management Plan.
The FY25 forecast is for a third consecutive decline in underlying operating cashflow, but a hike in dividend from ¥100 to ¥110 and a ¥1trln share buyback, including ¥230bn tender.
The combination of dividend and buyback should be 15% of market cap over the next 12mos. And I expect Warren Buffett will consider buying dips.

US vs EU: Worse to Come

By Alastair Newton

Policymakers and investors are not fully recognizing the threat posed by the US in response to ‘Liberation Day’.
The threat level has increased as ‘transactional Trump’ is replaced by a new president.
The new president aims to return the US to a perceived golden era in his mission to ‘make America great again’.

Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders (MAZDOCKS IN): OFS & Potential Global Index Inclusion

Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders (MAZDOCKS IN) has announced an Offer for Sale of 4.01% of the Government holding in the stock. That is INR 41bn (US$481m) at the last close.
The increase in float brings the stock very close to inclusion in a global index at the May rebalance. However, that is dependent on how the stock performs from here.
Inclusion in the index will bring around US$222m/ 2x ADV of passive inflows and could help support the stock.

CSI 300 Index Outlook After Trump’s Threat of 50% Tariff on China

By Nico Rosti

The Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY) was less impacted than other indices by the global sell-off: on Monday it was down only -10% from the recent top.
On Monday Donald Trump posted that if China does not withdraw immediately its +34% tariffs increase, the United States will impose ADDITIONAL Tariffs on China of +50%, effective April 9th!
Although the CSI 300 Index is more insulated than other indices from global market volatility, it is not completely immune and remains vulnerable to the impact of US’s tariff threats.

Watch This Friday’s TIGER Top 10 Semicon Rebalance

After the March avg daily market cap screen, Wonik IPS is swapped for Jusung Engineering. Big passive impact expected—Jusung gets 1x ADTV buy flow, Wonik faces 2.6x ADTV sell.
Watch for passive flow timing—last rebalance (Oct 11), ISC Co Ltd got kicked, Wonik IPS called up. TIGER split Wonik’s rebalance over two trading days to minimize price impact.
The long/short yield was 2.89% on Oct 11, 3.96% over two days. With bigger passive flow impact, TIGER may split the rebalance—enter near Thursday close, exit by Monday afternoon.

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Apr 07

Most Read: SPDR S&P 500, BYD, Solar Industries India, Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd., Krafton , Treasury Wine Estates, Seven & I Holdings, Topcon Corp, Abacus Storage King and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Trump Team’s Weird Tariff Math – Not Meant to Be Negotiated
BYD (1211 HK): God’s Eye & Potential HSTECH Index Inclusion
AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Jun 2025): Plenty of Change With More Likely
US Tariff Impact Estimates
Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105) – Worth Buying The Dip On Likely Sale
20 Korean Stocks That Could Outperform Next 2 Months Amid Tariff War and Local Political Turmoil
Treasury Wine Estates (TWE AU): Passive Selling Adds to Tariff Woes
Merger Arb Mondays (07 Apr) – Seven & I, Makino, HKBN, OneConnect, Dada, Insignia, Domain, Dropsuite
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Topcon, Jinke Smart Services, Dropsuite, Domain, Jamco, Shin Kong, Dada Nexus
Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) Gets an NBIO from Ki Corp & PSA

Trump Team’s Weird Tariff Math – Not Meant to Be Negotiated

For weeks, if not months, the world has been wondering what the “reciprocal tariffs” would be, and what the logic would be behind them.
There is talk of VAT, and NTBs, and huge tariff step-ups after quotas are exceeded (US exports of milk and cheese to Canada – high tariffs, but quotas not exceeded).
But a quick check of the math on the Trump Executive Order and Annex I tells you the logic is different than what everyone expected.

BYD (1211 HK): God’s Eye & Potential HSTECH Index Inclusion

BYD (1211 HK) raised US$5.6bn in a secondary offering a few weeks ago and the stock is trading a lot higher than the placement price.
Buying from global index trackers is done, but there will be more passive buying from Hang Seng Index (HSI) and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) trackers later this month.
With the release of the God’s Eye advanced driver-assistance system (ADAS), the stock could be added to the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in June, bringing more passive inflows.

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Jun 2025): Plenty of Change With More Likely

We currently forecast 10 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 10 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 9 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 11 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
From the new listings, 2 stocks are expected to be added to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.
There are multiple stocks among the AMFI changes that will be changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) and/or Nifty Midcap 150 Index in September.

US Tariff Impact Estimates

New US tariffs ignored any notion of reciprocity, reaching shockingly substantial sizes. However, the UK was relatively fortunate in landing on the 10% minimum rate.
Repeating 2024’s imports would raise $577bn in tariff revenue, which is worth ~3% of consumption. 70% pass-through to prices would add 2% to the level over 1-2 years.
Negotiations need to conclude rapidly to avoid these front-loaded price rises. The EU’s likely retaliations would magnify its pain, but the US is the biggest stagflationary loser.

Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105) – Worth Buying The Dip On Likely Sale

There was a Nikkei article in December about the Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP) selling its interests in Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP).
The stock popped. Then popped some more. It was not expensive yet, but no longer dirt cheap. Now the stock is falling as Trump Tariffs threaten to throttle exports.
The reasons why this takeout price could be “high” are unchanged. Tariffs meant to drive US-manufacturing don’t reduce need for forklifts. Logisnext is not badly placed.

20 Korean Stocks That Could Outperform Next 2 Months Amid Tariff War and Local Political Turmoil

In this insight, we discuss 20 Korean stocks that could outperform the market in the next two months amid global tariff war and local political turmoil.
Going forward, we believe these 20 Korean stocks could continue to outperform the market in the next couple of months.
As the market tries to digest further the uncertainties due to tariff war and the local Presidential election, these 20 stocks could provide sound defensive outperformance.

Treasury Wine Estates (TWE AU): Passive Selling Adds to Tariff Woes

Given its portfolio mix, Treasury Wine Estates (TWE AU) does not expect a material impact on its business from the blanket 10% tariff on all goods imported from Australia/New Zealand.
However, there is a high probability that Treasury Wine Estates (TWE AU) will be deleted from a global index in May and that will lead to large selling from passives.
There has been an increase in short interest and an increase in other positioning. Trading will be volatile but there could be a downward bias over the next few weeks.

Merger Arb Mondays (07 Apr) – Seven & I, Makino, HKBN, OneConnect, Dada, Insignia, Domain, Dropsuite

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Insignia Financial (IFL AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), OneConnect Financial Technology (OCFT US), Smart Share Global (EM US), Soundwill Holdings (878 HK).
Lowest spreads: Sinarmas Land (SML SP), Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP), Millennium & Copthorne Hotels Nz (MCK NZ), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Tonami Holdings (9070 JP).

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Topcon, Jinke Smart Services, Dropsuite, Domain, Jamco, Shin Kong, Dada Nexus

I tally 54 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Two news new deals discussed this week: Reject Shop (TRS AU) and Topcon Corp (7732 JP). Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK) also suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code.
Key updates/news took place on Dropsuite (DSE AU), AVJennings Ltd (AVJ AU), Domain Holdings (DHG AU), Jamco (7408 JP), Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT), and Dada Nexus (DADA US).

Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) Gets an NBIO from Ki Corp & PSA

Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) was demerged from Abacus Property Group in 2023 and the stock has traded in a range since listing.
Now, Ki Corp and Public Storage (PSA US) have made a conditional and non-binding proposal to take Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) private at A$1.47/share.
The offer is a 27% premium to the last close of the stock and is higher than the price that the stock has traded at since listing.

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✓ Company Analytics and News
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Apr 06

Most Read: Nick Scali Ltd, Indian Hotels, Hanmi Semiconductor, Solar Industries India, Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd., NIFTY Index, S&P 500 INDEX, Bangkok Chain Hospital, Krafton and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Northern Star’s Acquisition of De Grey Mining: The Many Index Implications & Flows
NIFTY Indices: Flows (Post Capping) At the Close Today; Round-Trip US$2.6bn
Korea Short Selling: What Happened on Day 1?
AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Jun 2025): Plenty of Change With More Likely
Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105) – Worth Buying The Dip On Likely Sale
Global Stocks Outlook: Where Is the Bottom for This Crash?
HEW: Yikes, At Tonto Tariff Hikes
SP500: Friday Sell-Offs, the VIX, and a Bit of 1987
Bangkok Chain Hospital – Expect Strong Earnings Growth in 2025E with a Higher ERP
20 Korean Stocks That Could Outperform Next 2 Months Amid Tariff War and Local Political Turmoil

Northern Star’s Acquisition of De Grey Mining: The Many Index Implications & Flows

Northern Star Resources (NST AU)‘s acquisition of De Grey Mining (DEG AU) is expected to complete in the next 3 weeks.
There will be an ad hoc inclusion to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and passive buying in Northern Star Resources (NST AU) from a bunch of trackers of different indices.
The acquisition brings Northern Star Resources (NST AU) close to inclusion in the S&P/ASX 20 Index, but it’s not there yet.

NIFTY Indices: Flows (Post Capping) At the Close Today; Round-Trip US$2.6bn

The NIFTY Index, Nifty Next 50 Index, Nifty Bank Index, Nifty IT Index, Nifty Midcap 150 Index, Nifty100 Low Volatility30 Index and the CPSE ETF rebalance at the close today.
The round-trip trade across the indices is US$2.6bn and there are 26 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade from passive trackers.
Stocks with the largest impact are Britannia Industries, Bharat Petroleum, Adani Total Gas, Indian Hotels, Jio Financial, IRCTC, Zomato, Federal Bank, Union Bank Of India and Crompton Greaves.

Korea Short Selling: What Happened on Day 1?

Short notional ticked higher on the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets and is expected to continue increasing over the next few months.
Since the resumption of short selling, foreign holdings of Korean equities have increased from 29.26% to 29.3%.
The Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) to KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) ratio has stayed stable over the last 3 trading days.

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Jun 2025): Plenty of Change With More Likely

We currently forecast 10 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 10 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 9 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 11 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
From the new listings, 2 stocks are expected to be added to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.
There are multiple stocks among the AMFI changes that will be changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) and/or Nifty Midcap 150 Index in September.

Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105) – Worth Buying The Dip On Likely Sale

There was a Nikkei article in December about the Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP) selling its interests in Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP).
The stock popped. Then popped some more. It was not expensive yet, but no longer dirt cheap. Now the stock is falling as Trump Tariffs threaten to throttle exports.
The reasons why this takeout price could be “high” are unchanged. Tariffs meant to drive US-manufacturing don’t reduce need for forklifts. Logisnext is not badly placed.

Global Stocks Outlook: Where Is the Bottom for This Crash?

By Nico Rosti

Analysis of the NIFTY, Nikkei 225, Hang Seng, KOSPI 200, S&P/ASX 200, S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 stock indices: where is the bottom for the global stock market rout?
As explained in this insight, our models have been battle-tested since 2008. While they can’t predict the future, they provide valuable insights for identifying market bottoms during crashes.
What follows is a focused analysis of each market index we track, aimed at identifying potential bottoms amid extreme sell-offs, helping position ahead of the next Bear Market rally/reversal.

HEW: Yikes, At Tonto Tariff Hikes

Severe global tariff increases have significantly impacted market sentiment, leading to lower equity prices and rate expectations. The market’s eagerness to discount ongoing US labour market resilience is considered excessive.
The new tariff rates are set to take effect in the coming week. Any further trade conflicts could be the main macro news.
US inflation, UK GDP, and the RBNZ are the conventional highlights, but these data may be disregarded as old news.

SP500: Friday Sell-Offs, the VIX, and a Bit of 1987

By John Ley

Drops greater than 5% on a Friday are rare, we examine historical returns after such events.
We revisit 1987 price action and reconstructed VIX levels to add historical context.
With circuit breakers now in place and political volatility elevated, we assess what today’s sell-off might mean for the next trading day.

Bangkok Chain Hospital – Expect Strong Earnings Growth in 2025E with a Higher ERP

By Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

We initiate our coverage on BCH with a Neutral rating and a fair value estimate of Bt15.70, based on the earnings yield method using a required return of 3.8%.
KTX’s valuation view is positive on strong long-term growth potential, with 2025-27E core EPS CAGR expected at +9%, outpacing the industry average of +5%.
However, the fundamental outlook is seen as neutral, with the fair value offering 8% upside and the tactical view also neutral.

20 Korean Stocks That Could Outperform Next 2 Months Amid Tariff War and Local Political Turmoil

In this insight, we discuss 20 Korean stocks that could outperform the market in the next two months amid global tariff war and local political turmoil.
Going forward, we believe these 20 Korean stocks could continue to outperform the market in the next couple of months.
As the market tries to digest further the uncertainties due to tariff war and the local Presidential election, these 20 stocks could provide sound defensive outperformance.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

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✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Analytics and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Apr 05

Most Read: Rio Tinto Ltd, Hanmi Semiconductor, Solar Industries India, The Shanghai Commerical & Sa, Makino Milling Machine Co, Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd., Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index, Dada Nexus , Regencell Bioscience Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Rio Tinto (RIO AU/LN): Shareholders To Vote On Merits Of Unification
Korea Short Selling: What Happened on Day 1?
AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Jun 2025): Plenty of Change With More Likely
Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Jun25: US$2.1bn One-Way; 17% Turnover; Sector-Neutral Trade Ideas
US Tariff Impact Estimates
Nidec Launches on Makino Milling (6135) – Others Presumably Wait In the Wings
Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105) – Worth Buying The Dip On Likely Sale
Yoon’s Impeachment Confirmed: Key Timeline & Regime Change Trade
Dada Nexus (DADA US): JD.Com’s US$2/ADS Firm Offer
Is This Chinese Biotech Going Out of Business?

Rio Tinto (RIO AU/LN): Shareholders To Vote On Merits Of Unification

Palliser Capital, which reportedly holds ~$300mn in Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU/LN) shares across its dual-head structure, has campaigned for near-on a year to unify the primary listing in Australia.
Palliser’s reasonings (and others) to unify make sense, such as access to stock-based mergers and eliminating franking wastage. A recent independent assessment from Grant Thornton is also supportive of unification.
Shareholders will vote on the resolution on 3rd April for UK-listed shares and 1st May for Australian-listed shares. The UK line holds the key to the vote outcome.

Korea Short Selling: What Happened on Day 1?

Short notional ticked higher on the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets and is expected to continue increasing over the next few months.
Since the resumption of short selling, foreign holdings of Korean equities have increased from 29.26% to 29.3%.
The Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) to KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) ratio has stayed stable over the last 3 trading days.

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Jun 2025): Plenty of Change With More Likely

We currently forecast 10 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 10 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 9 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 11 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
From the new listings, 2 stocks are expected to be added to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.
There are multiple stocks among the AMFI changes that will be changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) and/or Nifty Midcap 150 Index in September.

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Jun25: US$2.1bn One-Way; 17% Turnover; Sector-Neutral Trade Ideas

The TDIV index tracks the top 50 names in the Taiwan Stock Exchange with the highest dividend yields. It is a yield-weighted index with unique capping rules.
In this insight, we take look at Quiddity’s expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the June 2025 index rebal event.
We expect five changes for the TDIV index. On top of that, there will be capping flows too.

US Tariff Impact Estimates

New US tariffs ignored any notion of reciprocity, reaching shockingly substantial sizes. However, the UK was relatively fortunate in landing on the 10% minimum rate.
Repeating 2024’s imports would raise $577bn in tariff revenue, which is worth ~3% of consumption. 70% pass-through to prices would add 2% to the level over 1-2 years.
Negotiations need to conclude rapidly to avoid these front-loaded price rises. The EU’s likely retaliations would magnify its pain, but the US is the biggest stagflationary loser.

Nidec Launches on Makino Milling (6135) – Others Presumably Wait In the Wings

Nidec Corp (6594 JP) bid ¥11,000 for Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP) in December, saying it expected to launch on 4-April. It launched its ¥11,000 bid on 4-April.
A Nikkei article in March suggested Makino had found multiple competing bidders, some who had put in “legally binding bids.” No news on those yet, but we have a month.
Earnings are 9-May. Strategy on timing for Makino differs according to its desired outcome. It has to opine on Nidec’s bid by about 18 April. Be long. Carry .

Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105) – Worth Buying The Dip On Likely Sale

There was a Nikkei article in December about the Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP) selling its interests in Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP).
The stock popped. Then popped some more. It was not expensive yet, but no longer dirt cheap. Now the stock is falling as Trump Tariffs threaten to throttle exports.
The reasons why this takeout price could be “high” are unchanged. Tariffs meant to drive US-manufacturing don’t reduce need for forklifts. Logisnext is not badly placed.

Yoon’s Impeachment Confirmed: Key Timeline & Regime Change Trade

The Constitutional Court approved President Yoon’s impeachment. The PM steps in as interim president, with a new election expected by May 28, 2025, before June 3.
The Democratic Party is the frontrunner, and if they win, expect a “regime change trade” with policy shifts toward green energy, welfare, public stimulus, and SME-focused initiatives.
Big-Cap builders, nuclear stocks, and major financials may struggle if the new regime focuses on public housing, anti-nuclear policies, and pro-SME, labor-friendly initiatives.

Dada Nexus (DADA US): JD.Com’s US$2/ADS Firm Offer

Back on the 27th January, Dada Nexus (DADA US), a Chinese on-demand retail and delivery platform, announced a preliminary non-binding proposal from JD.com (9618 HK).
JD.com, a 63.2% shareholder, was offering US$0.50/share (US$2.00/ADS), a 42% premium to last close. Those terms are now firm and a definitive agreement entered into.
The merger is expected to close in the third quarter. Trading at 4.7%/15%, gross/annualised spread, assuming a four month off-ramp.

Is This Chinese Biotech Going Out of Business?

By J Capital Research

This Nasdaq-listed, Hong Kong-based company hopes to apply Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) to significant illnesses like ADHD, but that seems unlikely. The company is a family affair, with all research provided by the CEO’s father, so one wonders how objective scientific assessment can be.
The stock surged by more than 700% in a month without patent approval, a buyout offer, or other notable news. The CEO funded a share buyback, but rather than demonstrating faith in the company, the repurchase looked suspiciously like a way to inflate the short-term share price, possibly for an equity issue or insider self- enrichment since the CEO’s compensation is tied to market capitalization.
This is a highly speculative business run by a family team from Hong Kong, thus little trusted in the U.S. and very volatile.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

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✓ Company Analytics and News
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Apr 04

Most Read: SPDR S&P 500, Nick Scali Ltd, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Hanmi Semiconductor, ENN Energy, Solar Industries India, The Shanghai Commerical & Sa, HKBN Ltd, Makino Milling Machine Co and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Trump Team’s Weird Tariff Math – Not Meant to Be Negotiated
HKBN (1310 HK): MBK Ups Stake Via VLN Conversion
Northern Star’s Acquisition of De Grey Mining: The Many Index Implications & Flows
CATL A/H Listing – Thoughts on A/H Premium
Korea Short Selling: What Happened on Day 1?
ENN Energy (2688 HK): This Is An Avoid
AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Jun 2025): Plenty of Change With More Likely
Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Jun25: US$2.1bn One-Way; 17% Turnover; Sector-Neutral Trade Ideas
HKBN (1310 HK): I Squared Inches Closer to a Competing Offer
Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Nidec Launches Its Offer

Trump Team’s Weird Tariff Math – Not Meant to Be Negotiated

For weeks, if not months, the world has been wondering what the “reciprocal tariffs” would be, and what the logic would be behind them.
There is talk of VAT, and NTBs, and huge tariff step-ups after quotas are exceeded (US exports of milk and cheese to Canada – high tariffs, but quotas not exceeded).
But a quick check of the math on the Trump Executive Order and Annex I tells you the logic is different than what everyone expected.

HKBN (1310 HK): MBK Ups Stake Via VLN Conversion

China Mobile (941 HK) has made a pre-conditional HK$5.23/share voluntary Offer for HKBN Ltd (1310 HK). However, a possible separate Offer from I Squared continues to make the news.
In an unusual move, MBK, via Twin Holding, has converted HK$970.5mn of VLNs, at a whopping HK$11.60/share conversion price, lifting MBK’s stake to 16.39% on a fully diluted basis.
Speculation is rife that MBK provides an irrevocable to I Squared for its enlarged shareholding. Maybe. I still don’t see China supporting a U.S.-based infrastructure firm over an SOE .

Northern Star’s Acquisition of De Grey Mining: The Many Index Implications & Flows

Northern Star Resources (NST AU)‘s acquisition of De Grey Mining (DEG AU) is expected to complete in the next 3 weeks.
There will be an ad hoc inclusion to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and passive buying in Northern Star Resources (NST AU) from a bunch of trackers of different indices.
The acquisition brings Northern Star Resources (NST AU) close to inclusion in the S&P/ASX 20 Index, but it’s not there yet.

CATL A/H Listing – Thoughts on A/H Premium

By Sumeet Singh

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH), one of the world’s largest battery solutions providers, aims to raise at least US$5bn in its H-share listing.
CATL is the global leader in new energy vehicle battery solutions, in China and globally, as per SNE Research. Its A-shares have been listed since 2018.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about its recent updates and provide our thoughts on valuations.

Korea Short Selling: What Happened on Day 1?

Short notional ticked higher on the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets and is expected to continue increasing over the next few months.
Since the resumption of short selling, foreign holdings of Korean equities have increased from 29.26% to 29.3%.
The Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) to KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) ratio has stayed stable over the last 3 trading days.

ENN Energy (2688 HK): This Is An Avoid

Back on the 26th March, ENN Energy (2688 HK) announced a cash/scrip Offer from ENN Natural Gas (600803 CH), its largest shareholder.
Investors hoping for a clean (er) exit, or one where the back-end terms were clearly defined, will be disappointed. And minorities are active in this name.
The Offer pivots on where the newly-listed H-shares trade. The IFA’s assessment on the theoretical value of these H-shares is unrealistic.

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Jun 2025): Plenty of Change With More Likely

We currently forecast 10 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 10 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 9 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 11 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
From the new listings, 2 stocks are expected to be added to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.
There are multiple stocks among the AMFI changes that will be changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) and/or Nifty Midcap 150 Index in September.

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Jun25: US$2.1bn One-Way; 17% Turnover; Sector-Neutral Trade Ideas

The TDIV index tracks the top 50 names in the Taiwan Stock Exchange with the highest dividend yields. It is a yield-weighted index with unique capping rules.
In this insight, we take look at Quiddity’s expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the June 2025 index rebal event.
We expect five changes for the TDIV index. On top of that, there will be capping flows too.

HKBN (1310 HK): I Squared Inches Closer to a Competing Offer

Today’s HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) monthly update notes that I Squared has completed due diligence and is finalising the terms of a possible preconditional offer.
The I Squared bid will likely be a modest premium to the China Mobile offer with a 50% minimum tendering condition. The key unknown is securing regulatory approvals.
China Mobile (941 HK) will first react to an I Squared offer by maintaining terms. However, regardless of whether I Squared secures regulatory approvals, it is likely to match terms.

Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Nidec Launches Its Offer

Nidec Corp (6594 JP) has launched its offer for Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP) at an unchanged JPY11,000. The offer is open from 4 April to 21 May.
The offer was launched despite securing all regulatory approvals and the Board’s postponement request. The launch could also be an attempt to thwart a competing proposal.
Despite the launch, Nidec’s offer at current terms has a low chance of success, necessitating revised terms. There remains a medium-to-high probability of a competing proposal.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Analytics and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Apr 03

Most Read: Nick Scali Ltd, BYD, Shin Kong Financial Holding, Kokusai Electric , Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Hanmi Semiconductor, Chagee Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

BYD (1211 HK): God’s Eye & Potential HSTECH Index Inclusion
Northern Star’s Acquisition of De Grey Mining: The Many Index Implications & Flows
BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Buy-The-Dip Scenarios With Passive Buying from HSI/HSCEI Trackers
Shin Kong (2888 TT)/Taishin (2887 TT) Deal Gets FSC Approval – Still A Good Swap
Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD, One DELETE Still Probable Unless Kokusai Elec (6525) Offering/Split
CATL A/H Listing – Thoughts on A/H Premium
Korea Short Selling: What Happened on Day 1?
Quiddity Leaderboard T50/100 Jun25: Taishin-Shin Kong Merger Could Cause Two Changes
Tariff Transition Smoothing
Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bull Case

BYD (1211 HK): God’s Eye & Potential HSTECH Index Inclusion

BYD (1211 HK) raised US$5.6bn in a secondary offering a few weeks ago and the stock is trading a lot higher than the placement price.
Buying from global index trackers is done, but there will be more passive buying from Hang Seng Index (HSI) and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) trackers later this month.
With the release of the God’s Eye advanced driver-assistance system (ADAS), the stock could be added to the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in June, bringing more passive inflows.

Northern Star’s Acquisition of De Grey Mining: The Many Index Implications & Flows

Northern Star Resources (NST AU)‘s acquisition of De Grey Mining (DEG AU) is expected to complete in the next 3 weeks.
There will be an ad hoc inclusion to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and passive buying in Northern Star Resources (NST AU) from a bunch of trackers of different indices.
The acquisition brings Northern Star Resources (NST AU) close to inclusion in the S&P/ASX 20 Index, but it’s not there yet.

BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Buy-The-Dip Scenarios With Passive Buying from HSI/HSCEI Trackers

By Nico Rosti

A recent insight by Brian Freitas signals that BYD (1211 HK)buying from global index trackers is done (more passive buying from HSI/HSCEI trackers may come later this month).
As of Tuesday, the stock is currently in the middle of a modest pullback, 1 week down, reached a support area where the probability of a bounce is around 50%.
We are at the start of the month, it may be early to benefit from the passive buying discussed by Brian Freitas, however this pullback could support a buy-the-dips strategy.

Shin Kong (2888 TT)/Taishin (2887 TT) Deal Gets FSC Approval – Still A Good Swap

Late Monday, The Financial Supervisory Commission approved the merger where Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) is to be absorbed by Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT). Announcement here.
Yesterday, the chairmen of both Shin Kong and Taishin decided the merger base date, which has been set a bit further out than even I expected, at 24 July 2025.
The terms tightened yesterday. There is still a worthwhile switch to be done (or arb if you have cheap borrow), and NEWCO is cheap to peers, STILL.

Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD, One DELETE Still Probable Unless Kokusai Elec (6525) Offering/Split

The March 2025 Nikkei 225 review came out with a sparse set of changes. That gives us hints for the September 2025 review.
Kokusai did NOT get added, waiting for a split, an offering, or time to pass. Only one sector change was made. So we see One ADD and One DELETE.
The lack of effort to address sector imbalances within the rules suggests the rules are not as hard as people thought. Intra-review changes could be more interesting in years ahead.

CATL A/H Listing – Thoughts on A/H Premium

By Sumeet Singh

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH), one of the world’s largest battery solutions providers, aims to raise at least US$5bn in its H-share listing.
CATL is the global leader in new energy vehicle battery solutions, in China and globally, as per SNE Research. Its A-shares have been listed since 2018.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about its recent updates and provide our thoughts on valuations.

Korea Short Selling: What Happened on Day 1?

Short notional ticked higher on the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets and is expected to continue increasing over the next few months.
Since the resumption of short selling, foreign holdings of Korean equities have increased from 29.26% to 29.3%.
The Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) to KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) ratio has stayed stable over the last 3 trading days.

Quiddity Leaderboard T50/100 Jun25: Taishin-Shin Kong Merger Could Cause Two Changes

The T50 index represents the top 50 largest stocks by market capitalization in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). The T100 index represents the next 100 largest names (51-150 ranks).
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs for the June 2025 index rebal event.
Currently, we see one change for T50 and one change for T100.

Tariff Transition Smoothing

President Trump’s tariffs embed structural cost pressures, compounding supply chain changes and creating a stagflationary shock central banks cannot offset.
Potential retaliation risks raising inflation expectations, constraining the extent to which monetary policy can smooth transitional pains through temporary easing.
We still believe any dovish policy imperative is likely to be short, shallow, and reversed, with central banks forced to remain flexible and focused on shorter horizons again.

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bull Case