Most Read

Laopu Gold (6181 HK) was on track to be added to a global index given its large H-share market cap and a free float that was close to 20%.
Completion of the full circulation in April pushed H-share market cap higher while free float market cap remained the same. Crucially, free float dropped below 15%.
Laopu Gold (6181 HK) could miss index inclusion in May, while inclusion in August will need some selling from non-float investors following lock-up expiry in June.

Evolution Mining (EVN AU): Global Index Inclusion in May as Gold Rallies

Evolution Mining‘s stock price has moved higher over the last year as Gold has gone on a big run. The increased market cap should result in a global index inclusion.
Evolution Mining (EVN AU) has performed in line with its peers over the last year and trades in line with the group on most valuation parameters.
Positioning has jumped in Evolution Mining (EVN AU) and its peers over the last couple of months. The index inclusion could result in outperformance over the next few weeks.

Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) Placement: Index Implications; Stock Appears Wildly Overvalued

Korea Development Bank is looking to sell 13m shares of Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS). That is US$740m at the top end of the marketed range and 4x ADV.
Following the sale, Korea Development Bank will still own over 15% of the company and that will be an overhang for the stock. Plus the stock appears wildly overvalued.
There will be limited buying from passive trackers at the time of the placement with bigger passive flows coming through in June and August.

CATL H Share Listing: AH Discount Views

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH), the world’s largest supplier of EV and ESS batteries, is set to launch an H Share listing to raise US$5 billion.
In CATL H Share Listing: The Investment Case, a leading market position, forecasted return to growth, peer-leading profitability, cash generation, peer-leading FCF margin and an attractive valuation are highlighted.
In this note, I examine the likely discount CATL will offer its H Shares compared to the A Shares.

ASX200 (AS51 INDEX) Outlook: Rallying Out of a Bear Market Amid Passive Flows And Sector Strength

By Nico Rosti

Over the past three weeks, the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) has staged one of the strongest rebounds since the early April Trump-tariff shock, rallying approximately +15% from its 16-month low.
Several factors are driving the rally: recent passive flow activity, as highlighted by Brian Freitas but also broad-based sector strength, with notable gains in energy, healthcare, and consumer staples.
Despite a positive outlook, our models indicate the index is currently OVERBOUGHT. This insight breaks down the key details.

Smartpay (SPY NZ/SMP AU): Three Is No Crowd as a Third Bid Lands at NZ$1.20

On 2 May, Smartpay Holdings (SPY NZ) disclosed receiving a third non-binding scheme proposal from another international strategic at NZ$1.20 (A$1.12), 20% premium to the Tyro Payments (TYR AU) offer.
Smartpay previously disclosed a NZ$1.00 cash/scrip bid from Tyro and an undisclosed offer from an international strategic (rumoured to be Shift4 Payments (FOUR US)).
Smartpay was susceptible to bids due to the RBA’s surcharge review, but the shareholder structure necessitates an attractive offer. The NZ$1.20 offer is attractive.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota, Rio Tinto, Hainan Meilan, Fujitsu General

Toyota Chair TOYODA made a proposal to take over Toyota Industries (6201 JP), not because he loves forklifts etc; but an opportunistic way to buy a large block of Toyota.
Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) shareholders voted down Palliser’s proposal to review its dual-company structure. That was the right outcome.
Hainan Meilan (357 HK)‘s H-share Offer price of HK$10.62/share is not compelling; but it’s not meant to be, as the SPA Buyer and Seller are ultimately controlled by Hainan SASAC.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Ainsworth Game, Bright Smart, PointsBet, Dickson Concepts, Canvest, Shibaura

I tally 49 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Four new deals discussed on Smartkarma this week: Ainsworth Game (AGI AU), Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK), and of course, Toyota Industries (6201 JP).
Key updates/news took place on: PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK), Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK), and Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP).

Oisix: Major Growth Expected in Foodtech

By Michael Causton

Given Japan’s growing interest in food-based health solutions, multiple players are looking to build businesses in the field across gut health and dietary solutions for the old and infirm.
Oisix, the leading online food retailer has developed an incubator for start ups in this area.
It is hoping to create a mini silicon valley for food tech businesses.

Crude Awakening: Shell’s Possible Bid to Refine BP’s Future

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Shell–BP deal offers strong industrial logic, with $70B in synergies justifying a 40–50% premium while delivering robust EPS accretion and strategic energy transition alignment.
Regulatory hurdles are real but manageable, with anticipated divestitures in UK/EU fuel retail and limited structural issues in the U.S.
Multiple financing structures are viable; a 60/40 cash-stock mix preserves leverage discipline, limits dilution, and enhances deal feasibility from a risk-arb perspective.

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May 04

Most Read: Laopu Gold, Vcanbio Cell & Gene Engineering, Bank Jago Tbk PT, Hanwha Aerospace, Evolution Mining, Sigma Healthcare, Hanwha Ocean , Ather Energy, S&P/ASX 200 and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Global Index Inclusion Likely Derailed by Full Circulation
CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance Preview: Five Potential Changes in June
IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Few Changes
FnGuide Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Flow in Large Cap Stocks
Evolution Mining (EVN AU): Global Index Inclusion in May as Gold Rallies
Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Next Round of Passive Buying Around the Corner
Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) Placement: Index Implications; Stock Appears Wildly Overvalued
Ather Energy IPO: Expensive and No Immediate Index Inclusion
ASX200 (AS51 INDEX) Outlook: Rallying Out of a Bear Market Amid Passive Flows And Sector Strength
Clarifying the Key Points on Lee Jae-Myung’s Legal Risk and How It Could Affect the Trade

Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Global Index Inclusion Likely Derailed by Full Circulation

Laopu Gold (6181 HK) was on track to be added to a global index given its large H-share market cap and a free float that was close to 20%.
Completion of the full circulation in April pushed H-share market cap higher while free float market cap remained the same. Crucially, free float dropped below 15%.
Laopu Gold (6181 HK) could miss index inclusion in May, while inclusion in August will need some selling from non-float investors following lock-up expiry in June.

CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance Preview: Five Potential Changes in June

The review period ends on 30 April, the changes should be announced on 30 May and will be effective after the close of trading on 13 June.
We forecast 5 potential changes for the index in June where there could be buying of 0.5-2x ADV in the adds and selling of between 0.7-3.8x ADV in the deletes.
The forecast adds and deletes have performed in line over the last few months and there could be outperformance as we near the end of the review period and announcement.

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Few Changes

There is 1 constituent change for the IDX30 Index and 2 changes for the IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 30 April.
The largest passive flows are expected in Bank Rakyat Indonesia, Bank Jago Tbk PT, Bank Mandiri Persero, Bank Tabungan Negara Persero, Adaro Energy and Bukalapak.com PT Tbk.
There are only 4 days to implementation, so there could be relatively big moves on the changes to the IDX30 Index.

FnGuide Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Flow in Large Cap Stocks

The Mirae Asset Tiger Top 10 ETF (292150 KS) tracks the FnGuide Top 10 Index and has an AUM of around US$660m.
We currently forecast two potential changes at the next rebalance in June – both are high probability changes.
The trade has performed well historically with positive performance till implementation followed by reversion post implementation in most cases.

Evolution Mining (EVN AU): Global Index Inclusion in May as Gold Rallies

Evolution Mining‘s stock price has moved higher over the last year as Gold has gone on a big run. The increased market cap should result in a global index inclusion.
Evolution Mining (EVN AU) has performed in line with its peers over the last year and trades in line with the group on most valuation parameters.
Positioning has jumped in Evolution Mining (EVN AU) and its peers over the last couple of months. The index inclusion could result in outperformance over the next few weeks.

Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Next Round of Passive Buying Around the Corner

There was big passive buying in Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) in March from S&P/ASX trackers following the completion of the merger with Chemist Warehouse Group.
Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) should be added to a global index in May and those passive trackers will have a lot of stock to buy.
While there will be positioning in the stock, it appears lighter than the estimated passive buying. Shorts are being covered and that could provide a boost.

Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) Placement: Index Implications; Stock Appears Wildly Overvalued

Korea Development Bank is looking to sell 13m shares of Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS). That is US$740m at the top end of the marketed range and 4x ADV.
Following the sale, Korea Development Bank will still own over 15% of the company and that will be an overhang for the stock. Plus the stock appears wildly overvalued.
There will be limited buying from passive trackers at the time of the placement with bigger passive flows coming through in June and August.

Ather Energy IPO: Expensive and No Immediate Index Inclusion

Ather Energy is looking to raise INR 30bn (US$349m) in its IPO, valuing the company at INR 120bn (US$1.4bn). The company appears to be expensive compared to peers.
Ather Energy could be added to one global smallcap index in August/November and to another in December/March. Small Cap classification for AMFI and no major local index inclusion.
The continued selloff in Ola Electric will give investors pause, especially given Ather Energy‘s stagnant market share and continued losses. There is supply in Ola Electric with PE/VC investors selling.

ASX200 (AS51 INDEX) Outlook: Rallying Out of a Bear Market Amid Passive Flows And Sector Strength

By Nico Rosti

Over the past three weeks, the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) has staged one of the strongest rebounds since the early April Trump-tariff shock, rallying approximately +15% from its 16-month low.
Several factors are driving the rally: recent passive flow activity, as highlighted by Brian Freitas but also broad-based sector strength, with notable gains in energy, healthcare, and consumer staples.
Despite a positive outlook, our models indicate the index is currently OVERBOUGHT. This insight breaks down the key details.

Clarifying the Key Points on Lee Jae-Myung’s Legal Risk and How It Could Affect the Trade

If the judicial overhang is overstated, it could distort the regime-change narrative and create new entry points for a deep value setup.
The local tape is overpricing post-win disqualification risk, creating a fear premium that could be low-hanging alpha for contrarians willing to fade the noise.
Monitor Lee’s poll numbers, as public sentiment impacts the judiciary. This offers a chance to front-run shifts and capitalize on the next rotation, potentially turning into a stealthy upside play.

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May 03

Most Read: Rio Tinto Ltd, Toyota Industries, Hanwha Aerospace, Hainan Meilan International Airport, Sony Corp, Kayou, Shinsegae and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Rio Tinto (RIO AU/LN): Shareholders To Vote On Merits Of Unification
Toyota Industries (6201) – Thinking About How To Value a ¥6trln Bid
FnGuide Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Flow in Large Cap Stocks
Meilan Airport (357 HK): Possible Unconditional MGO at HK$10.62
Hainan Meilan Intl Airport (357 HK): Hainan SASAC’s Left/Right Pocket MGO
StubWorld: On Valuing Toyota Industries (6201)’s Stub Ops
SONY (6758) | Going into Earnings
Kayou IPO Preview: 250%+ Growth + FCF of $500M+ in 2024, Leader in the Trading Card Sector in China
Lee Myung-Hee Transfers All of Her 10.2% Stake In Shinsegae to Her Daughter Chung Yoo-Kyung
HEW: Good News From Less News

Rio Tinto (RIO AU/LN): Shareholders To Vote On Merits Of Unification

Palliser Capital, which reportedly holds ~$300mn in Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU/LN) shares across its dual-head structure, has campaigned for near-on a year to unify the primary listing in Australia.
Palliser’s reasonings (and others) to unify make sense, such as access to stock-based mergers and eliminating franking wastage. A recent independent assessment from Grant Thornton is also supportive of unification.
Shareholders will vote on the resolution on 3rd April for UK-listed shares and 1st May for Australian-listed shares. The UK line holds the key to the vote outcome.

Toyota Industries (6201) – Thinking About How To Value a ¥6trln Bid

Toyota Industries is a relatively complicated business. It owns lots of shares of Toyota and other companies. It has a financing business, and runs ¥500+bn of EBITDA.
As of 31 March 2025, the “Enterprise Value” of the Operating and Financing Business together was about ¥2.2trln. The “Asset Ownership Business” was at ¥2.8trln (1yr ago it was ¥4trln).
If you think buying the Operating Business at 6x EBITDA is appropriate, that means the Asset Ownership Business block buy gets done at 31-March-2025 prices. Worth thinking about.

FnGuide Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Flow in Large Cap Stocks

The Mirae Asset Tiger Top 10 ETF (292150 KS) tracks the FnGuide Top 10 Index and has an AUM of around US$660m.
We currently forecast two potential changes at the next rebalance in June – both are high probability changes.
The trade has performed well historically with positive performance till implementation followed by reversion post implementation in most cases.

Meilan Airport (357 HK): Possible Unconditional MGO at HK$10.62

Haikou Meilan International Airport Company entered an SPA with Hainan Island Construction (600515 CH) to sell its Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK) 50.19% stake at RMB9.85 per share (HK$10.62).
The SPA completion requires several regulatory approvals, which are low-risk, particularly as Hainan SASAC is the largest shareholder of the offeror and the seller.
Under Rule 26.1 of the Takeovers Code, upon completion, the offeror will be required to make an unconditional mandatory cash offer at HK$10.62 per share. The MGO price is final.

Hainan Meilan Intl Airport (357 HK): Hainan SASAC’s Left/Right Pocket MGO

Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK) has announced a potential change of control, via the domestic shares.
Haikou Meilan’s major shareholder, Hainan Airport Industrial, has entered into a SPA with Hainan Island (600515 CH) to sell its 50.19% stake, the completion of which triggers an unconditional MGO.
The H-share Offer price will be HK$10.62/share. That’s not compelling; but it’s not meant to be as Hainan Airport Industrial and Hainan Island Construction are ultimately controlled by Hainan SASAC.

StubWorld: On Valuing Toyota Industries (6201)’s Stub Ops

Yes, I agree with Travis Lundy that the ¥6tn headline price tag for Toyota Industries (6201 JP) backs out a ~6x forward EBITDA for the unlisted stub ops.
Preceding my comments on the Toyota Group are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

SONY (6758) | Going into Earnings

By Mark Chadwick

Content-Driven growth: Strong performance in music and gaming supports Sony’s shift toward high-margin content, insulating it from trade and macro headwinds.
Upcoming catalysts: Spin-off of Sony Financial and potential restructuring could unlock value and address the long-standing conglomerate discount.
Attractive valuation: Trading at 14x EV/EBIT with defensive sector exposure, Sony remains undervalued relative to global peers despite YTD outperformance.

Kayou IPO Preview: 250%+ Growth + FCF of $500M+ in 2024, Leader in the Trading Card Sector in China

By Andrei Zakharov

Kayou Inc., early-mover in the trading card industry in China, filed for an IPO in Hong Kong. The company sells trading cards, toys, figures, badges, pens, and notebooks, among others.
Kayou Inc. received capital of ~$135M from HongShan Capital and Tencent Holdings in 2022. Mr. Li Qibin founded trading card and collectible toy firm in 2011.
Founder led company has delivered 250%+ growth and FCF of $500M+ in 2024. The market opportunity is large enough to support sustained high growth for Kayou for several years.

Lee Myung-Hee Transfers All of Her 10.2% Stake In Shinsegae to Her Daughter Chung Yoo-Kyung

By Douglas Kim

On 30 April, Lee Myung-Hee (Chairwoman of Shinsegae Group) decided to transfer all of her 10.2% stake in Shinsegae (004170 KS) as a gift to her daughter Chung Yoo-Kyung.
After this gift, Chung Yoo-Kyung’s ownership in Shinsegae will rise from 18.95% to 29.16%.
We are positive on this share transfer of 10.2% stake in Shinsegae from mother (Lee Myung-Hee) to her daughter Chung Yoo-Kyung on the share price impact on Shinsegae.

HEW: Good News From Less News

By Phil Rush

Economic data and Trump’s declarations do not support dovish fears, with the economy showing resilience despite the initial US tariff shock and the UK stamp duty rise. EA inflation pressure remains unbroken.
The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain steady rates next week due to lack of hard evidence for a cut. Similarly, the Bank of England is likely to continue its course with a quarterly 25bp rate cut, influenced by the strength of sterling and falling commodity prices.
Any future rate cuts by both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England would require more substantial evidence.

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May 02

Most Read: Toyota Industries, Hanwha Aerospace, Shibaura Electronics, Hainan Meilan International Airport, Suzhou Kematek and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Toyota Industries (6201) – SURPRISE! It’s a TOYODA Takeover Proposal (Good Governance May Not Win)
Toyota Industries (6201) – Thinking About How To Value a ¥6trln Bid
FnGuide Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Flow in Large Cap Stocks
Shibaura Elec (6957) – Minebea Overbids Yageo’s Overbid of Minebea’s Overbid of Yageo – ¥5,500
Meilan Airport (357 HK): Possible Unconditional MGO at HK$10.62
Hainan Meilan Intl Airport (357 HK): Hainan SASAC’s Left/Right Pocket MGO
Quiddity Leaderboard CSI All Share Semiconductors Jun25: Final Expectations
Hanwha Aerospace Rights Offering – Third Time Is a Charm?
UK: Tax Hikes Disrupt Housing Market
Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): MinebeaMitsumi Outbids Yageo for a Second Time

Toyota Industries (6201) – SURPRISE! It’s a TOYODA Takeover Proposal (Good Governance May Not Win)

On Friday after the close, media reports surfaced that Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Group chairman and founding family member had put forth a take-private proposal to Toyota Industries (6201 JP).
The number quoted was ¥6trln market cap (most) or EV (FT), financed by personal funds, 3 megabanks, and reportedly some group companies.
¥6trln market cap would be +50%. ¥6trln EV +16%. Simultaneously shocking but somehow not surprising. Opportunistic, and surprisingly elegant as a family/group/cultural solution. More below.

Toyota Industries (6201) – Thinking About How To Value a ¥6trln Bid

Toyota Industries is a relatively complicated business. It owns lots of shares of Toyota and other companies. It has a financing business, and runs ¥500+bn of EBITDA.
As of 31 March 2025, the “Enterprise Value” of the Operating and Financing Business together was about ¥2.2trln. The “Asset Ownership Business” was at ¥2.8trln (1yr ago it was ¥4trln).
If you think buying the Operating Business at 6x EBITDA is appropriate, that means the Asset Ownership Business block buy gets done at 31-March-2025 prices. Worth thinking about.

FnGuide Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Flow in Large Cap Stocks

The Mirae Asset Tiger Top 10 ETF (292150 KS) tracks the FnGuide Top 10 Index and has an AUM of around US$660m.
We currently forecast two potential changes at the next rebalance in June – both are high probability changes.
The trade has performed well historically with positive performance till implementation followed by reversion post implementation in most cases.

Shibaura Elec (6957) – Minebea Overbids Yageo’s Overbid of Minebea’s Overbid of Yageo – ¥5,500

A Nikkei article today suggested Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) would overbid Yageo’s dramatic 20% overbid of Minebea’s early ¥4,500 overbid of Yageo’s initial ¥4,300 bid for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP).
Now the news is out. MinebeaMitsumi has bid ¥5,500. Shibaura Electronics has endorsed. This is bang-in-line with the expected path. The question is now YAGEO’s overbid, expected 7 May.
If I were YAGEO, I would wait for Shibaura’s earnings a couple of days later, then overbid by ¥100-150 and go for 35 days. There’s optionality there.

Meilan Airport (357 HK): Possible Unconditional MGO at HK$10.62

Haikou Meilan International Airport Company entered an SPA with Hainan Island Construction (600515 CH) to sell its Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK) 50.19% stake at RMB9.85 per share (HK$10.62).
The SPA completion requires several regulatory approvals, which are low-risk, particularly as Hainan SASAC is the largest shareholder of the offeror and the seller.
Under Rule 26.1 of the Takeovers Code, upon completion, the offeror will be required to make an unconditional mandatory cash offer at HK$10.62 per share. The MGO price is final.

Hainan Meilan Intl Airport (357 HK): Hainan SASAC’s Left/Right Pocket MGO

Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK) has announced a potential change of control, via the domestic shares.
Haikou Meilan’s major shareholder, Hainan Airport Industrial, has entered into a SPA with Hainan Island (600515 CH) to sell its 50.19% stake, the completion of which triggers an unconditional MGO.
The H-share Offer price will be HK$10.62/share. That’s not compelling; but it’s not meant to be as Hainan Airport Industrial and Hainan Island Construction are ultimately controlled by Hainan SASAC.

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI All Share Semiconductors Jun25: Final Expectations

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

CSI All Share Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment Index represents the largest and most-liquid stocks in the Semiconductor Industry Group from the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Exchanges.
In this insight, we have presented our final expectations for ADDs and DELs for the upcoming semiannual index rebal event in June 2025.
We expect up to four ADDs and six DELs for the CSI All Share Semiconductors index during this index review based on the latest available data.

Hanwha Aerospace Rights Offering – Third Time Is a Charm?

By Douglas Kim

Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS) has once again provided a revised rights offering prospectus following another request from the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS).
Rights offering amount remains the same at 2.3 trillion won. Expected rights offering price is 539,000 won which is subject to change. New shares listing date is 21 July 2025.
Hanwha Aerospace reported sales of 5.5 trillion won (14.3% better than consensus) and operating profit of 560.8 billion won (11.7% better than consensus) in 1Q 2025.

UK: Tax Hikes Disrupt Housing Market

By Phil Rush

Domestic tax hikes are more substantial than US tariffs in April, so the impact should not be forgotten, even if the UK government wants to blame any damage on Trump.
Frontrunning April’s stamp duty increases stoked transactions and lending, and may take at least a few months to recover afterwards. Resilient approvals are reassuring.
Higher transaction costs probably won’t break expectations into a downwards spiral, but are now widely cited as a major hurdle, contributing to slower UK activity growth.

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): MinebeaMitsumi Outbids Yageo for a Second Time

Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) has revised its tender offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) to JPY 5,500, representing a 1.9% premium over Yageo Corporation (2327 TT)’s JPY 5,400 hostile offer.
There are factors supporting Yageo again outbidding Minebea, and Yageo calling it quits. A revised Yageo could potentially touch JPY6,000, 40% higher than its first offer.
The shares are trading 7.1% above Minebea’s offer, factoring in a fair chunk of the upside from an ongoing bidding war. Take profits as risk/reward looks unattractive.

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May 01

Most Read: Toyota Industries, Hanwha Aerospace, Horizon Robotics, Samsung SDI, Aisin , Soundwill Holdings, DN Solutions, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Green Tea Group, Aviva and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Toyota Industries (6201) – SURPRISE! It’s a TOYODA Takeover Proposal (Good Governance May Not Win)
FnGuide Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Flow in Large Cap Stocks
Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Global Index Inclusion After April & October Lock-Ups
Samsung SDI Rights Trade Period & Short Ban: Quick Clarity
Aisin (7259) – Executing the Capital Policy Side of Its MTMP – Big ¥120bn (8.8%) Buyback
Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): Wide Spread Ahead of the 23 May Scheme Vote
DN Solutions IPO Officially Withdrawn: Background and Key Takeaways
Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End Apr 2025 Ranks
Pre-IPO Green Tea Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
Aviva’s £3.7B Acquisition: Key Index Changes

Toyota Industries (6201) – SURPRISE! It’s a TOYODA Takeover Proposal (Good Governance May Not Win)

On Friday after the close, media reports surfaced that Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Group chairman and founding family member had put forth a take-private proposal to Toyota Industries (6201 JP).
The number quoted was ¥6trln market cap (most) or EV (FT), financed by personal funds, 3 megabanks, and reportedly some group companies.
¥6trln market cap would be +50%. ¥6trln EV +16%. Simultaneously shocking but somehow not surprising. Opportunistic, and surprisingly elegant as a family/group/cultural solution. More below.

FnGuide Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Flow in Large Cap Stocks

The Mirae Asset Tiger Top 10 ETF (292150 KS) tracks the FnGuide Top 10 Index and has an AUM of around US$660m.
We currently forecast two potential changes at the next rebalance in June – both are high probability changes.
The trade has performed well historically with positive performance till implementation followed by reversion post implementation in most cases.

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Global Index Inclusion After April & October Lock-Ups

By Dimitris Ioannidis

Free float is expected to increase from 10% to 70% on 24 April for Global-F and on 24 October for Global-M. The delayed increase is due to undisclosed shareholders.
Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) is forecasted to be added to global all-world in June 2025 following the 6-month lock-up expiry of most shareholders.
Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) is forecasted to be added to global standard in February 2026 following the 12-month lock-up expiry of undisclosed shareholders.

Samsung SDI Rights Trade Period & Short Ban: Quick Clarity

Samsung SDI kept the trading window open until May 12, not May 9 — so stock rights will trade for a total of six sessions.
If all shorts are closed by May 16, we can still subscribe. Spot hedging isn’t allowed, but outright shorts for pricing plays are fine.
Entry cost is effectively capped at 146,200 won, and it’s still very unlikely the final price exceeds that, so using it as the rights entry cap still makes sense.

Aisin (7259) – Executing the Capital Policy Side of Its MTMP – Big ¥120bn (8.8%) Buyback

Last Friday during market hours, Toyota Group member Aisin (7259 JP) announced earnings, guidance, its MTMP progress update, and a buyback.
Earnings were OK, all things considered. Guidance was disappointing, but tariff impact is real. The buyback headlines are huge (17%); reality is about half that given the stock price.
If they execute via TN-3 near-term, it just sets up the next one, but they may do 2/3 TN=3 and 1/3 market. There may be Toyota Industries factors involved.

Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): Wide Spread Ahead of the 23 May Scheme Vote

Soundwill Holdings (878 HK)’s IFA opines that the Foo family’s HK$8.50 offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 23 May.
Key conditions include approval by at least 75% of independent shareholders (<10% of independent shareholders’ rejection) and a headcount test. No shareholder holds a blocking stake.
The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. The vote risk is low. At the current price and for a June 11 payment, the gross/annualised spread is 4.3%/44.0%.

DN Solutions IPO Officially Withdrawn: Background and Key Takeaways

Book built weak, even under ₩65,000. Both local and foreign demand was super soft. Company floated printing at the bottom, but floor didn’t hold. Now, the deal is officially dead.
The real overhang was valuation; the IPO priced too high for the growth story. Without a strong momentum trade, DN Solutions couldn’t ride the wave, and sentiment soured fast.
They’re not waiting too long — likely aiming for a H2 comeback. KRX might skip the full review, and they may focus on domestic investors this time without an OC.

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End Apr 2025 Ranks

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted capped index composed of 400 constituents.
The annual index review takes place in August every year. We look at the latest rankings of potential ADDs/DELs every month.
Below is a look at the rankings of ~45 potential ADDs/DELs for the JPX-Nikkei 400 August 2025 rebalance based on trading data as of end-April 2025.

Pre-IPO Green Tea Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The decline in Green Tea’s performance in 2024 cannot be solely attributed to external factors such as economic downturn and the decline in consumption. There are deeper reasons behind it.
The growth is mainly contributed by delivery service. However, commission fee is high and average spending per order is lower than dine-in services.So delivery service has limited contribution to profits.
The aggressive expansion of restaurants may further dilute the performance of individual restaurant. We shared our three-year forecast.Valuation of Green Tea could be lower than Xiaocaiyuan and the industry average

Aviva’s £3.7B Acquisition: Key Index Changes

By Harry Kalfas

Aviva’s (AV/ LN) £3.7B acquisition of Direct Line Insurance Group Pl (DLG LN) combines two major insurers, with £125M in expected annual synergies by year three.
Direct Line Insurance Group Pl (DLG LN) shareholders to receive 0.2867 new Aviva (AV/ LN) shares, 129.7p in cash, and up to 5p in pre-completion dividends per share held.
The acquisition is expected to impact major UK and European indices on an intra-quarter basis.

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Apr 30

Most Read: Toyota Industries, Laopu Gold, Hanwha Ocean , Toyota Motor, Horizon Robotics, Hanwha Aerospace, Dickson Concepts Intl, PointsBet Holdings , Samsung SDI and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Toyota Industries (6201) – SURPRISE! It’s a TOYODA Takeover Proposal (Good Governance May Not Win)
Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Global Index Inclusion Likely Derailed by Full Circulation
Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) Placement: Index Implications; Stock Appears Wildly Overvalued
KDB’s Hanwha Ocean Block Deal: Worth Taking a Swing
Toyota (7203 JP) Tactical Outlook Following Toyota Industries (6201 JP) Privatization Rumors
Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Global Index Inclusion After April & October Lock-Ups
FnGuide Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Flow in Large Cap Stocks
Poon’s Underpriced Takeover. Minorities Deserve Better
Betr’s “Superior Offer” For PointsBet (PBH AU) Is Questionable
Samsung SDI Rights Trade Period & Short Ban: Quick Clarity

Toyota Industries (6201) – SURPRISE! It’s a TOYODA Takeover Proposal (Good Governance May Not Win)

On Friday after the close, media reports surfaced that Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Group chairman and founding family member had put forth a take-private proposal to Toyota Industries (6201 JP).
The number quoted was ¥6trln market cap (most) or EV (FT), financed by personal funds, 3 megabanks, and reportedly some group companies.
¥6trln market cap would be +50%. ¥6trln EV +16%. Simultaneously shocking but somehow not surprising. Opportunistic, and surprisingly elegant as a family/group/cultural solution. More below.

Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Global Index Inclusion Likely Derailed by Full Circulation

Laopu Gold (6181 HK) was on track to be added to a global index given its large H-share market cap and a free float that was close to 20%.
Completion of the full circulation in April pushed H-share market cap higher while free float market cap remained the same. Crucially, free float dropped below 15%.
Laopu Gold (6181 HK) could miss index inclusion in May, while inclusion in August will need some selling from non-float investors following lock-up expiry in June.

Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) Placement: Index Implications; Stock Appears Wildly Overvalued

Korea Development Bank is looking to sell 13m shares of Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS). That is US$740m at the top end of the marketed range and 4x ADV.
Following the sale, Korea Development Bank will still own over 15% of the company and that will be an overhang for the stock. Plus the stock appears wildly overvalued.
There will be limited buying from passive trackers at the time of the placement with bigger passive flows coming through in June and August.

KDB’s Hanwha Ocean Block Deal: Worth Taking a Swing

KDB sells 4.3% of total shares, offloading about one fifth of its holdings. The price range was 81,265–81,710 won, at an 8.51–9.00% discount, totaling 1.056–1.062 trillion won.
With more float and passive buying (KOSPI 200) potential, plus shipbuilding momentum, the stock’s pullback likely won’t exceed today’s discount — it might be worth taking a swing.
There’s buzz KDB might sell its HMM stake through block trades, like Hanwha Ocean. However, with HMM’s cash reserves, a tender offer seems more likely to drive stock action instead.

Toyota (7203 JP) Tactical Outlook Following Toyota Industries (6201 JP) Privatization Rumors

By Nico Rosti

Toyota Motor (7203 JP) said in a Tokyo stock exchange filing on Saturday that it is exploring the possibility of investing in a potential buyout of key supplier Toyota Industries.
Bloomberg reported Friday that Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Chairman Akio Toyoda and his family proposed acquiring Toyota Industries (6201 JP) in a possible 6 trillion yen ($42 billion) transaction.
The stocks of both companies were rising on Monday, this insight focus on tactical positioning on Toyota Motor:the stock appears very OVERBOUGHT according to our models.

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Global Index Inclusion After April & October Lock-Ups

By Dimitris Ioannidis

Free float is expected to increase from 10% to 70% on 24 April for Global-F and on 24 October for Global-M. The delayed increase is due to undisclosed shareholders.
Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) is forecasted to be added to global all-world in June 2025 following the 6-month lock-up expiry of most shareholders.
Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) is forecasted to be added to global standard in February 2026 following the 12-month lock-up expiry of undisclosed shareholders.

FnGuide Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Flow in Large Cap Stocks

The Mirae Asset Tiger Top 10 ETF (292150 KS) tracks the FnGuide Top 10 Index and has an AUM of around US$660m.
We currently forecast two potential changes at the next rebalance in June – both are high probability changes.
The trade has performed well historically with positive performance till implementation followed by reversion post implementation in most cases.

Poon’s Underpriced Takeover. Minorities Deserve Better

Dickson Concepts (113 HK) (DC)’s Chairman, Dickson Poon (& relatives), holding 61.98%, have tabled an Offer by way of a Scheme for shares not held, at HK$7.20/share (best & final).
That compares to DC’s net cash (as at 30 Sept 2024) of HK$7.44/share. Plus financial assets comprise an additional ~HK$2.16/share.
The IFA will cite liquidity and DC’s historical discount to NAV, and opine “reasonable”, and perhaps even “fair”. It is neither. Minorities should vote this down. But probably won’t …

Betr’s “Superior Offer” For PointsBet (PBH AU) Is Questionable

On the 26th Feb 2025, PointsBet (PBH AU), an Australian/Canadian online wagering platform, entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Mixi (2121 JP) at A$1.06/share, a 27.7% premium to undisturbed.
PointsBet rebuffed key (smaller) rival Betr Entertainment (BBT AU)‘s (previously known as BlueBet) ostensibly higher non-binding cash/scrip; and refuted Betr’s claim that it’s Offer was fully funded.
Betr has returned with, what appears to be, an all cash offer of A$1.20/share, fully-funded/underwritten. Betr’s Offer still requires confirmatory due diligence. Importantly, Betr has also acquired a 19.9% stake.

Samsung SDI Rights Trade Period & Short Ban: Quick Clarity

Samsung SDI kept the trading window open until May 12, not May 9 — so stock rights will trade for a total of six sessions.
If all shorts are closed by May 16, we can still subscribe. Spot hedging isn’t allowed, but outright shorts for pricing plays are fine.
Entry cost is effectively capped at 146,200 won, and it’s still very unlikely the final price exceeds that, so using it as the rights entry cap still makes sense.

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Apr 29

Most Read: Toyota Industries, Laopu Gold, Shin Etsu Chemical, Sigma Healthcare, Ather Energy, SK Inc, Hanwha Ocean and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Toyota Industries (6201) – SURPRISE! It’s a TOYODA Takeover Proposal (Good Governance May Not Win)
Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Global Index Inclusion Likely Derailed by Full Circulation
Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063) – OK Earnings, OK Forecast, But Ground-Breaking Buyback
Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Next Round of Passive Buying Around the Corner
Toyota Industries (6201 JP): A Rumoured Privatisation with Several Unknowns
Ather Energy IPO: Expensive and No Immediate Index Inclusion
Next Target After Hanwha for Regime Change Momentum Play: SK Inc’s Share Cancellation
Hanwha Ocean Placement – Recent Run-Up, Results Make It Tricky
Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) Placement: Index Implications; Stock Appears Wildly Overvalued
KDB’s Hanwha Ocean Block Deal: Worth Taking a Swing

Toyota Industries (6201) – SURPRISE! It’s a TOYODA Takeover Proposal (Good Governance May Not Win)

On Friday after the close, media reports surfaced that Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Group chairman and founding family member had put forth a take-private proposal to Toyota Industries (6201 JP).
The number quoted was ¥6trln market cap (most) or EV (FT), financed by personal funds, 3 megabanks, and reportedly some group companies.
¥6trln market cap would be +50%. ¥6trln EV +16%. Simultaneously shocking but somehow not surprising. Opportunistic, and surprisingly elegant as a family/group/cultural solution. More below.

Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Global Index Inclusion Likely Derailed by Full Circulation

Laopu Gold (6181 HK) was on track to be added to a global index given its large H-share market cap and a free float that was close to 20%.
Completion of the full circulation in April pushed H-share market cap higher while free float market cap remained the same. Crucially, free float dropped below 15%.
Laopu Gold (6181 HK) could miss index inclusion in May, while inclusion in August will need some selling from non-float investors following lock-up expiry in June.

Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063) – OK Earnings, OK Forecast, But Ground-Breaking Buyback

Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP) reported FY earnings to beat January guidance for all four major measures, just slightly. They only guide 1 quarter out, and Q1 is up year-on-year…
…in revenues, but down in OP and NP. Note: OP and NP guidance is nearly identical to what they guided for Q1 last year on ¥585bn revenues (vs ¥610bn now)
The BIG news here is a Very Large Buyback. The company has long has huge piles of cash. This buyback (~90% of annual profit) starts to make use of it.

Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Next Round of Passive Buying Around the Corner

There was big passive buying in Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) in March from S&P/ASX trackers following the completion of the merger with Chemist Warehouse Group.
Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) should be added to a global index in May and those passive trackers will have a lot of stock to buy.
While there will be positioning in the stock, it appears lighter than the estimated passive buying. Shorts are being covered and that could provide a boost.

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): A Rumoured Privatisation with Several Unknowns

Toyota Industries (6201 JP) shares were set to hit the daily upper limit of JPY16,225 due to press reports of a privatisation bid valuing it at JPY6 trillion.
Toyota Industries confirmed receiving a going-private proposal from a special purpose company, while Toyota Motor (7203 JP) said it is considering all possibilities, including a partial investment.
There are still several unknowns, including the price, the identity of the offeror, potential irrevocable commitments, the financing structure, and the timeline.

Ather Energy IPO: Expensive and No Immediate Index Inclusion

Ather Energy is looking to raise INR 30bn (US$349m) in its IPO, valuing the company at INR 120bn (US$1.4bn). The company appears to be expensive compared to peers.
Ather Energy could be added to one global smallcap index in August/November and to another in December/March. Small Cap classification for AMFI and no major local index inclusion.
The continued selloff in Ola Electric will give investors pause, especially given Ather Energy‘s stagnant market share and continued losses. There is supply in Ola Electric with PE/VC investors selling.

Next Target After Hanwha for Regime Change Momentum Play: SK Inc’s Share Cancellation

Local traders are betting SK Inc will preemptively announce a treasury share cancellation before the June election, positioning it as the center of the regime change momentum play.
From a trading perspective, SK Inc could rally as a “buyback stock” and offer NAV gap trading opportunities.
Another option could be an event-driven hedge strategy: go long on SK and short index futures post-election. If Lee Jae-myung wins, SK could outperform, but the broader market may drop.

Hanwha Ocean Placement – Recent Run-Up, Results Make It Tricky

By Sumeet Singh

Korea Development Bank (KDB) plans to raise around US$740m via selling around 5%+ stake in Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS).
HO’s shares have nearly tripled since the start of the year, and the company reported its results today.
In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.

Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) Placement: Index Implications; Stock Appears Wildly Overvalued

Korea Development Bank is looking to sell 13m shares of Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS). That is US$740m at the top end of the marketed range and 4x ADV.
Following the sale, Korea Development Bank will still own over 15% of the company and that will be an overhang for the stock. Plus the stock appears wildly overvalued.
There will be limited buying from passive trackers at the time of the placement with bigger passive flows coming through in June and August.

KDB’s Hanwha Ocean Block Deal: Worth Taking a Swing

KDB sells 4.3% of total shares, offloading about one fifth of its holdings. The price range was 81,265–81,710 won, at an 8.51–9.00% discount, totaling 1.056–1.062 trillion won.
With more float and passive buying (KOSPI 200) potential, plus shipbuilding momentum, the stock’s pullback likely won’t exceed today’s discount — it might be worth taking a swing.
There’s buzz KDB might sell its HMM stake through block trades, like Hanwha Ocean. However, with HMM’s cash reserves, a tender offer seems more likely to drive stock action instead.

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Apr 28

Most Read: Toyota Industries, JX Advanced Metals, Shin Etsu Chemical, Bright Smart Securities And, Alibaba Group Holding , Sigma Healthcare, Laopu Gold, Seven & I Holdings, Fujitsu General and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Toyota Industries (6201) – SURPRISE! It’s a TOYODA Takeover Proposal (Good Governance May Not Win)
The End-April TOPIX Rebalance – US$2.1bn a Side
Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063) – OK Earnings, OK Forecast, But Ground-Breaking Buyback
Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK): Ant’s Possible Unconditional MGO at HK$3.28
Alibaba (9988 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading
Alibaba (9988 HK): Volatility Surface Favoring Diagonal and Calendar Spreads
Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Next Round of Passive Buying Around the Corner
Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Global Index Inclusion Likely Derailed by Full Circulation
Merger Arb Mondays (28 Apr) – Seven & I, Shibaura, Makino, Bright Smart, ENN Energy, Tam Jai
Fujitsu General (6755 JP): Done Deal as Precondition Satisfied

Toyota Industries (6201) – SURPRISE! It’s a TOYODA Takeover Proposal (Good Governance May Not Win)

On Friday after the close, media reports surfaced that Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Group chairman and founding family member had put forth a take-private proposal to Toyota Industries (6201 JP).
The number quoted was ¥6trln market cap (most) or EV (FT), financed by personal funds, 3 megabanks, and reportedly some group companies.
¥6trln market cap would be +50%. ¥6trln EV +16%. Simultaneously shocking but somehow not surprising. Opportunistic, and surprisingly elegant as a family/group/cultural solution. More below.

The End-April TOPIX Rebalance – US$2.1bn a Side

This year there are 10 Free Float Weight Changes for April. There are 20 Liquidity Factor Changes, 2 Inclusions, and 3 M&A-related downweights. There are 90+ Share Count Change Downweights.
This is a bigger Big April Basket than normally comes around. And there are some big flows. All trades are 28 April at the close.
Total flow is ~US$2.1bn a side. 64 trades of >2 days of ADV, and of those, 27 with >US$10mm to trade (7 of US$50mm+). Top 20 in USD average 5dADV.

Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063) – OK Earnings, OK Forecast, But Ground-Breaking Buyback

Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP) reported FY earnings to beat January guidance for all four major measures, just slightly. They only guide 1 quarter out, and Q1 is up year-on-year…
…in revenues, but down in OP and NP. Note: OP and NP guidance is nearly identical to what they guided for Q1 last year on ¥585bn revenues (vs ¥610bn now)
The BIG news here is a Very Large Buyback. The company has long has huge piles of cash. This buyback (~90% of annual profit) starts to make use of it.

Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK): Ant’s Possible Unconditional MGO at HK$3.28

Bright Smart Securities And (1428 HK)‘s Chairman entered a SPA with Ant Holdco to sell his 50.55% stake at HK$3.28, a 7.5% premium to the last close.
The SPA completion requires approval from both the NDRC and SFC. Unusually, Ant has the option of extending the long-stop date, reflecting a possibility of extra scrutiny by the regulators.
Under Rule 26.1 of the Code, upon completion, Ant will be required to make an unconditional mandatory cash offer at HK$3.28. The MGO price is final and a knockout offer.

Alibaba (9988 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading

By Gaudenz Schneider

Over the past five trading days, Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
Diagonal Spreads account for nearly 30% of all strategies. Many of these strategies sell short term risk to finance longer term protection.
Several structures hedge against low probability tail events. One such strategy traded 100 contracts.

Alibaba (9988 HK): Volatility Surface Favoring Diagonal and Calendar Spreads

By Gaudenz Schneider

Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) one-month implied volatility has decreased from recent peaks but remains above the 70th percentile, while realized volatility exceeds 80% (96th percentile).
A relatively flat term structure and skew render Calendar and Diagonal Spreads interesting strategies.
Open interest extends to March 2026, with balanced call and put interest across all expiries.

Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Next Round of Passive Buying Around the Corner

There was big passive buying in Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) in March from S&P/ASX trackers following the completion of the merger with Chemist Warehouse Group.
Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) should be added to a global index in May and those passive trackers will have a lot of stock to buy.
While there will be positioning in the stock, it appears lighter than the estimated passive buying. Shorts are being covered and that could provide a boost.

Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Global Index Inclusion Likely Derailed by Full Circulation

Laopu Gold (6181 HK) was on track to be added to a global index given its large H-share market cap and a free float that was close to 20%.
Completion of the full circulation in April pushed H-share market cap higher while free float market cap remained the same. Crucially, free float dropped below 15%.
Laopu Gold (6181 HK) could miss index inclusion in May, while inclusion in August will need some selling from non-float investors following lock-up expiry in June.

Merger Arb Mondays (28 Apr) – Seven & I, Shibaura, Makino, Bright Smart, ENN Energy, Tam Jai

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK), Insignia Financial (IFL AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Smart Share Global (EM US).
Lowest spreads: Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP), Sinarmas Land (SML SP), Millennium & Copthorne Hotels Nz (MCK NZ).

Fujitsu General (6755 JP): Done Deal as Precondition Satisfied

The precondition for Paloma Rheem Holdings’ tender offer for Fujitsu General (6755 JP) is satisfied. The offer is from 28 April to 28 May.
Despite an arguably light offer and less than ideal process, this is a done deal due to a lack of opposition and no competing offer.
At the last close and for a 5 June payment, the gross and annualised spreads are 1.3% and 14.1%, respectively.

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Apr 27

Most Read: Sanrio, Nexchip Semiconductor , Swiggy, Suzhou Kematek, Vcanbio Cell & Gene Engineering, Bank Jago Tbk PT, Shin Etsu Chemical, Bright Smart Securities And, Renesas Electronics and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Sanrio (8136 JP): Global Index Inclusion in May
CNI Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: One Change in June
Swiggy (SWIGGY IN): US$7.6bn Lock-Up Expiry & Index Inclusion
CSI All Share Semiconductor Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Index Flows for Some Stocks
CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance Preview: Five Potential Changes in June
IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Few Changes
Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063) – OK Earnings, OK Forecast, But Ground-Breaking Buyback
HEW: Put Inside The Trump Collar
Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK): Ant’s Possible Unconditional MGO at HK$3.28
Renesas 1Q25: Cheap Stock That’s Bottoming Out

Sanrio (8136 JP): Global Index Inclusion in May

Sanrio (8136 JP)‘s stock price dropped following the placement announcement in November. Then there was a rally in the stock amid increased volatility.
The placement resulted in an increase in free float and the move higher in the stock could lead to Sanrio (8136 JP) being added to a global index in May.
There is positioning in the stock but a lot of that appears to have been taken off in the last month. The stock could move higher depending on global cues.

CNI Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: One Change in June

There could be one change for the CNI Semiconductor Chips Index with Nexchip Semiconductor (688249 CH) replacing Amlogic Shanghai (688099 CH) in June.
Passive trackers are estimated to buy 1.4x ADV in Nexchip Semiconductor and sell 0.8x ADV in Amlogic Shanghai. There will be buying in Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) due to capping.
The forecast add and delete have performed in line since the start of the year but there has been a move higher in the last few weeks.

Swiggy (SWIGGY IN): US$7.6bn Lock-Up Expiry & Index Inclusion

Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) listed in November 2024 and around 85% of the shares outstanding (US$7.6bn) will unlock on 13 May.
Nearly 80% of the shares that unlock are held by pre-IPO PE/VC investors and they are 100% in the money in most cases. Expect the selldown to commence soon.
Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) should be added to one global index in June, while inclusion in the other global index will require a small price increase or selling from PE/VC investors.

CSI All Share Semiconductor Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Index Flows for Some Stocks

The review period for the June rebalance of the CSI All Share Semiconductor Index ends 30 April. The changes should be announced on 30 May and implemented on 13 June.
We forecast 4/5 adds and 8 deletes for the index with a one-way turnover of 2.4% and a round-trip trade of CNY 990m (US$136m).
There are many forecast adds and deletes that will have same side flows from trackers of the CES China Semiconductor Chips Index and the CNI Semiconductor Chips Index.

CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance Preview: Five Potential Changes in June

The review period ends on 30 April, the changes should be announced on 30 May and will be effective after the close of trading on 13 June.
We forecast 5 potential changes for the index in June where there could be buying of 0.5-2x ADV in the adds and selling of between 0.7-3.8x ADV in the deletes.
The forecast adds and deletes have performed in line over the last few months and there could be outperformance as we near the end of the review period and announcement.

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Few Changes

There is 1 constituent change for the IDX30 Index and 2 changes for the IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 30 April.
The largest passive flows are expected in Bank Rakyat Indonesia, Bank Jago Tbk PT, Bank Mandiri Persero, Bank Tabungan Negara Persero, Adaro Energy and Bukalapak.com PT Tbk.
There are only 4 days to implementation, so there could be relatively big moves on the changes to the IDX30 Index.

Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063) – OK Earnings, OK Forecast, But Ground-Breaking Buyback

Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP) reported FY earnings to beat January guidance for all four major measures, just slightly. They only guide 1 quarter out, and Q1 is up year-on-year…
…in revenues, but down in OP and NP. Note: OP and NP guidance is nearly identical to what they guided for Q1 last year on ¥585bn revenues (vs ¥610bn now)
The BIG news here is a Very Large Buyback. The company has long has huge piles of cash. This buyback (~90% of annual profit) starts to make use of it.

HEW: Put Inside The Trump Collar

By Phil Rush

The US policy caused market volatility over Easter, creating a ‘Trump Collar’ to pricing, but the global economy remains unaffected by the attacks and uncertainty.
The upcoming week will see a heavy release of data, providing insights into current conditions.
Key data highlights include US payrolls, the ISMs, and Euro inflation for April, while Q1 EA and US GDP are likely to be discounted by the market as outdated information.

Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK): Ant’s Possible Unconditional MGO at HK$3.28

Bright Smart Securities And (1428 HK)‘s Chairman entered a SPA with Ant Holdco to sell his 50.55% stake at HK$3.28, a 7.5% premium to the last close.
The SPA completion requires approval from both the NDRC and SFC. Unusually, Ant has the option of extending the long-stop date, reflecting a possibility of extra scrutiny by the regulators.
Under Rule 26.1 of the Code, upon completion, Ant will be required to make an unconditional mandatory cash offer at HK$3.28. The MGO price is final and a knockout offer.

Renesas 1Q25: Cheap Stock That’s Bottoming Out

By Nicolas Baratte

Revenues are still declining by ~teens% YoY but margins shows signs of improvements as end-demand improves and utilization is low.
Renesas doesn’t have an inventory problem and increasing revenues will lead to higher utilization and higher margins.
As Renesas is showing signs of a bottom, the stock is very cheap, trading at -2 standard deviations or 11x 2025 EPS, 9x 2026 EPS.

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Apr 26

Most Read: Swiggy, Panasonic Corp, Evolution Mining, Bank Jago Tbk PT, Fujitsu Ltd, Miwon Specialty Chemical, Shibaura Electronics, Hongkong Land, HLB Life Science, SK Telecom and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Swiggy (SWIGGY IN): US$7.6bn Lock-Up Expiry & Index Inclusion
Solactive Global Lithium Index Rebalance: Passive Flows Next Week
Evolution Mining (EVN AU): Global Index Inclusion in May as Gold Rallies
IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Few Changes
Fujitsu (6702) – Earnings/Guidance OK, Margins Better, But New Quiddity Buyback Data Tool
[Quiddity Index Apr25] KOSPI 200 Leaderboard Jun25: 6 ADDs and 6 DELETEs
YAGEO and Shibaura Still Fighting, Minebea Likely to Bid Up, The Question Is Another YAGEO Overbid
Hongkong Land (HKL SP) Recycles Nine Floors Of One Exchange Square
HLB Merger Arb Setup: How Cancellation Risk Could Lead to Extra Profits
SK Telecom’s Block Deal Sale of 10.8 Million Shares of Kakao Corp

Swiggy (SWIGGY IN): US$7.6bn Lock-Up Expiry & Index Inclusion

Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) listed in November 2024 and around 85% of the shares outstanding (US$7.6bn) will unlock on 13 May.
Nearly 80% of the shares that unlock are held by pre-IPO PE/VC investors and they are 100% in the money in most cases. Expect the selldown to commence soon.
Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) should be added to one global index in June, while inclusion in the other global index will require a small price increase or selling from PE/VC investors.

Solactive Global Lithium Index Rebalance: Passive Flows Next Week

Solactive has announced the review results for the Global Lithium Index. There are no constituent changes for the index but there will be capping changes for a few stocks.
Estimated one-way turnover is 10.8% and will result in a round-trip trade of US$208m. There are some stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade.
The index has been in a secular downtrend over the last few years and there have been big redemptions from ETFs tracking the index.

Evolution Mining (EVN AU): Global Index Inclusion in May as Gold Rallies

Evolution Mining‘s stock price has moved higher over the last year as Gold has gone on a big run. The increased market cap should result in a global index inclusion.
Evolution Mining (EVN AU) has performed in line with its peers over the last year and trades in line with the group on most valuation parameters.
Positioning has jumped in Evolution Mining (EVN AU) and its peers over the last couple of months. The index inclusion could result in outperformance over the next few weeks.

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Few Changes

There is 1 constituent change for the IDX30 Index and 2 changes for the IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 30 April.
The largest passive flows are expected in Bank Rakyat Indonesia, Bank Jago Tbk PT, Bank Mandiri Persero, Bank Tabungan Negara Persero, Adaro Energy and Bukalapak.com PT Tbk.
There are only 4 days to implementation, so there could be relatively big moves on the changes to the IDX30 Index.

Fujitsu (6702) – Earnings/Guidance OK, Margins Better, But New Quiddity Buyback Data Tool

Fujitsu Earnings. Revenues +2.1%, OP +77.5%, Pretax +65.1%, Net -13.0% (basis effect from FY23 one-offs). Forecast? Revs -2.8%, OP/adj +35.8%/+17.2%, Net/adj +77.4%/+3.7%. All guided measures shy vs the Street consensus.
The company presented a progress update on its Medium-Term Management Plan. Core profits are better. Things are improving.
The company also announced a big 11-month ¥170bn buyback. Last year’s was ¥180bn (completed 24 March). Worth checking out the details (and our brand-new buyback tool)

[Quiddity Index Apr25] KOSPI 200 Leaderboard Jun25: 6 ADDs and 6 DELETEs

KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the Korea Exchange (KRX).
In this insight, we have presented our final expectations for ADDs and DELs for the upcoming semiannual review in June 2025.
We expect six ADDs and six DELs for the KOSPI 200 index during this index rebal event based on the latest available data.

YAGEO and Shibaura Still Fighting, Minebea Likely to Bid Up, The Question Is Another YAGEO Overbid

Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) bid ¥4,300 for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP). Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) overbid at ¥4,500. YAGEO overbid Minebea at ¥5,400 on 17 April (expected to start 7-May)
Apparently, YAGEO was a bit upset by the public comments by Shibaura regarding custom/mass-market/online different ways of doing business. YAGEO responded with receipts. Shibaura will respond later.
On the 22nd, Minebea noted they would delay their intended 23rd start date. Now they have more irrevocables. In the end, I expect YAGEO’s, not Minebea’s, top price defines this.

Hongkong Land (HKL SP) Recycles Nine Floors Of One Exchange Square

In a rare move, Jardine Matheson (JM SP)-controlled Hongkong Land (HKL SP) has sold nine floors (147,025 square feet) of One Exchange Square to HKEX (388 HK) for HK$6.3bn (US$810mn).
HKL plans to use the proceeds to provide enhancements to the property sold, the reduction of net debt; and for a share buyback. Shares are up 9% as I type.
HKL is focussed on divesting US$4bn to US$6bn of its balance sheet assets in the next three years. HKL’s CEO Michael Smith: “Recycling capital is our top priority right now“.

HLB Merger Arb Setup: How Cancellation Risk Could Lead to Extra Profits