Last Friday China torpedoed Australia’s coal imports after announcing that the middle kingdom would no longer accept coal imports from Australia. This leads us to consider some of the energy issues related to China. We write often about coal and the importance it has on China’s energy consumption.
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Last Friday China torpedoed Australia’s coal imports after announcing that the middle kingdom would no longer accept coal imports from Australia. This leads us to consider some of the energy issues related to China. We write often about coal and the importance it has on China’s energy consumption.
Asian currencies are, in general, well supported by economic fundamentals in the form of external surpluses and interest rate differentials. Indeed, most Asian currencies display an appreciating bias, contrary to perceptions in 2018 when all of them lost ground to the US dollar. Over the last year the underlying external strength has been reflected in Asian currency appreciation against the US dollar.
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Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.
Last Friday China torpedoed Australia’s coal imports after announcing that the middle kingdom would no longer accept coal imports from Australia. This leads us to consider some of the energy issues related to China. We write often about coal and the importance it has on China’s energy consumption.
Asian currencies are, in general, well supported by economic fundamentals in the form of external surpluses and interest rate differentials. Indeed, most Asian currencies display an appreciating bias, contrary to perceptions in 2018 when all of them lost ground to the US dollar. Over the last year the underlying external strength has been reflected in Asian currency appreciation against the US dollar.
In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.
Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma
Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.
Japan’s policymakers continue to fret about the lack of inflation but it is worth remembering the norm globally and historically is for the price of manufactured goods to decline over time. As companies grow, specialise and scale up the cost of production falls and with it final consumer goods prices. Falling retail prices which increase consumer real purchasing power is good news for Japanese households and for discretionary spending. Moreover with labour productivity growth outpacing wages costs by a wide margin, companies can absorb lower prices without sacrificing profitability. Stay overweight Japanese equities.
The anticipated cut in the bank reserve ratio didn’t materialize in the latest Monetary Board (MB) meeting–the first one chaired by newly appointed BSP Gov. Benjamin Diokno. In the ANC televised interview, Diokno expressed his preference to reduce the high bank reserve requirement ratio (RRR: 18%) by 1% every quarter, fueling bond market excitement that severely compressed yields. The policy rate was also unchanged amid the dovish tone in the BSP’s press release after the meeting.
According to a senior monetary official, the RRR cut is a ‘live’ issue. That the timing of any adjustment is key given the operational and policy implications of an RRR cut.
Accentuating the MB’s depiction of benign inflation is an inflation trajectory settled comfortably in its target band in 2019-20 with inflation expectations close to being anchored within the band as well. Key downside risk to growth cited by the MB is the ‘current budget impasse in Congress is not resolved soon’. Prolonged El Niño is among those factors that can upset the broadly balanced risks to inflation.
A BSP under a pro-growth BSP chief need not necessarily change the ‘sequencing and timing’ of monetary policy decisions/actions facing liquidity and growth challenges. Likelihood that 1Q GDP (May 9 release) may be given slight emphasis in the BSP’s shift to accommodation starting with the bank reserve cut.
We expect a bond market correction following excitement over the BSP’s dovish pivot this early that led to severe yield compression. Buy the 5yrs to short-duration on dips.
In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.
The presidential race is unchanged as data from a premier polling firm, SMRC, shows a 26 percentage point lead for Widodo. Thus far only one poll has shown a narrow lead — 12 percent, according to Kompas — but until other data corroborates this, it appears to be an outlier that does not change the outlook. Widodo is heavily touting the MRT opening, but provincial leaders are struggling to set a tariff rate — it will therefore still be free when it opens for public use on 25 March. The Religion Ministry appointments-graft scandal threatens to implicate the minister. Trade acrimony with the EU is escalating. West Java Governor Ridwan Kamil, a 2024 presidential contender, garnered negative publicity for appointing relatives. Legislators and stakeholders are clamoring for government progress on a draft Bill on Personal Data Protection.
Politics: Eager to maximize advantages from the imminent commercial start of Jakarta’s Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) line, President Joko Widodo claimed credit for having made a “political decision” to take on the project’s cost. In fact, the magnitude of those costs to the province remains unclear: three days from the start of operations, policymakers have yet to set the tariff for riders (Page 2). The corruption scandal enveloping the Islamic United Development Party (PPP) – at the worst possible time in the election cycle – could further depress the clout of Islamic interests in the next parliament (p. 3). West Java Governor Ridwan Kamil invited criticism by appointing two relatives to a high-profile Development Acceleration Team (TAP) under his aegis (p. 4).
Surveys: The large lead for President Joko Widodo appears intact, based on findings from three recent polls, although one reputable agency produced divergent results. Widodo has a lead of at least 19 percentage points according to three surveys in late February and March: in addition to the Survey Network (LSI) and Alvara Research (discussed in recent Ref Wkly editions), new data has emerged from Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) placing Widodo’s margin over Prabowo at 26 percentage points. A poll conducted simultaneously by Kompas measured the lead at only 12 percentage points – but until other polling corroborates this, it constitutes an outlier that lacks significance. In any event, even if Widodo’s lead has shrunk as much as Kompas claims, he would still enjoy a comfortable cushion (p. 4).
Justice: Religion Minister Lukman Saefuddin is under scrutiny after investigators discovered Rp600 million in cash in his office desk drawer. Meanwhile, former PPP Chair Romahurmuziy failed to appear for questioning as a suspect (p. 7).
Produced since 2003, the Reformasi Weekly Review provides timely, relevant and independent analysis on Indonesian political and policy news. The writer is Kevin O’Rourke, author of the book Reformasi. For subscription info please contact: <[email protected]>.
Policy News: Public officials clamored for a long-awaited Bill on Protecting Personal Data (RUU PDP) (p. 8). Energy Minister Ignatius Jonan welcomed a parliamentary suggestion to subsidize the higher-octane petroleum product Pertamax, rather than Premium – but he remained noncommittal about implementation (p. 9).
Infrastructure: Jakarta’s governor rejected suggestions from provincial legislators that the MRT should be free, or at least free for Jakarta residents (p. 10).
International: Policymakers denounced the European Union (EU) for allegedly discriminating against biodiesel from crude palm oil (CPO). The planned Comprehensive Partnership Agreement with Europe (IEU‑Cepa) could be at risk (p. 11).
The broad decline in global bond yields and curve flattening suggest that the market has become more concerned about weak global economic growth.
The fall in yields is at odds with the rise in equity and commodity prices this year, but the later may have lost upward momentum.
Safe haven currencies, gold and JPY, have strengthened this week and are likely to perform well if yields remain low.
US real yields have fallen more than nominal yields this year, with a partial recovery in inflation expectations from their fall in Q4 last year. Lower real yields point to weaker fundamental support for the USD, and further support safe havens like gold.
Canadian real long term yields have fallen more abruptly than in the USA, into negative territory, suggesting the outlook for the Canadian economy has deteriorated more than most. This may relate to concern over a peaking in the Canadian housing market. The fall in real yields suggests further downside risk for the CAD.
Long term inflation breakevens have fallen in Australia sharply since September last year to now well below the RBA’s 2.5% inflation target.
Australian leading indicators of the labour market have turned lower, albeit from solid levels, and may be enough, combined with broader evidence of weaker growth, for the RBA to announce an easing bias as soon as April.
Asian trade data and flash PMI data for major countries point to ongoing and significant weakness in global trade.
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The anticipated cut in the bank reserve ratio didn’t materialize in the latest Monetary Board (MB) meeting–the first one chaired by newly appointed BSP Gov. Benjamin Diokno. In the ANC televised interview, Diokno expressed his preference to reduce the high bank reserve requirement ratio (RRR: 18%) by 1% every quarter, fueling bond market excitement that severely compressed yields. The policy rate was also unchanged amid the dovish tone in the BSP’s press release after the meeting.
According to a senior monetary official, the RRR cut is a ‘live’ issue. That the timing of any adjustment is key given the operational and policy implications of an RRR cut.
Accentuating the MB’s depiction of benign inflation is an inflation trajectory settled comfortably in its target band in 2019-20 with inflation expectations close to being anchored within the band as well. Key downside risk to growth cited by the MB is the ‘current budget impasse in Congress is not resolved soon’. Prolonged El Niño is among those factors that can upset the broadly balanced risks to inflation.
A BSP under a pro-growth BSP chief need not necessarily change the ‘sequencing and timing’ of monetary policy decisions/actions facing liquidity and growth challenges. Likelihood that 1Q GDP (May 9 release) may be given slight emphasis in the BSP’s shift to accommodation starting with the bank reserve cut.
We expect a bond market correction following excitement over the BSP’s dovish pivot this early that led to severe yield compression. Buy the 5yrs to short-duration on dips.
In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.
The presidential race is unchanged as data from a premier polling firm, SMRC, shows a 26 percentage point lead for Widodo. Thus far only one poll has shown a narrow lead — 12 percent, according to Kompas — but until other data corroborates this, it appears to be an outlier that does not change the outlook. Widodo is heavily touting the MRT opening, but provincial leaders are struggling to set a tariff rate — it will therefore still be free when it opens for public use on 25 March. The Religion Ministry appointments-graft scandal threatens to implicate the minister. Trade acrimony with the EU is escalating. West Java Governor Ridwan Kamil, a 2024 presidential contender, garnered negative publicity for appointing relatives. Legislators and stakeholders are clamoring for government progress on a draft Bill on Personal Data Protection.
Politics: Eager to maximize advantages from the imminent commercial start of Jakarta’s Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) line, President Joko Widodo claimed credit for having made a “political decision” to take on the project’s cost. In fact, the magnitude of those costs to the province remains unclear: three days from the start of operations, policymakers have yet to set the tariff for riders (Page 2). The corruption scandal enveloping the Islamic United Development Party (PPP) – at the worst possible time in the election cycle – could further depress the clout of Islamic interests in the next parliament (p. 3). West Java Governor Ridwan Kamil invited criticism by appointing two relatives to a high-profile Development Acceleration Team (TAP) under his aegis (p. 4).
Surveys: The large lead for President Joko Widodo appears intact, based on findings from three recent polls, although one reputable agency produced divergent results. Widodo has a lead of at least 19 percentage points according to three surveys in late February and March: in addition to the Survey Network (LSI) and Alvara Research (discussed in recent Ref Wkly editions), new data has emerged from Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) placing Widodo’s margin over Prabowo at 26 percentage points. A poll conducted simultaneously by Kompas measured the lead at only 12 percentage points – but until other polling corroborates this, it constitutes an outlier that lacks significance. In any event, even if Widodo’s lead has shrunk as much as Kompas claims, he would still enjoy a comfortable cushion (p. 4).
Justice: Religion Minister Lukman Saefuddin is under scrutiny after investigators discovered Rp600 million in cash in his office desk drawer. Meanwhile, former PPP Chair Romahurmuziy failed to appear for questioning as a suspect (p. 7).
Produced since 2003, the Reformasi Weekly Review provides timely, relevant and independent analysis on Indonesian political and policy news. The writer is Kevin O’Rourke, author of the book Reformasi. For subscription info please contact: <[email protected]>.
Policy News: Public officials clamored for a long-awaited Bill on Protecting Personal Data (RUU PDP) (p. 8). Energy Minister Ignatius Jonan welcomed a parliamentary suggestion to subsidize the higher-octane petroleum product Pertamax, rather than Premium – but he remained noncommittal about implementation (p. 9).
Infrastructure: Jakarta’s governor rejected suggestions from provincial legislators that the MRT should be free, or at least free for Jakarta residents (p. 10).
International: Policymakers denounced the European Union (EU) for allegedly discriminating against biodiesel from crude palm oil (CPO). The planned Comprehensive Partnership Agreement with Europe (IEU‑Cepa) could be at risk (p. 11).
The broad decline in global bond yields and curve flattening suggest that the market has become more concerned about weak global economic growth.
The fall in yields is at odds with the rise in equity and commodity prices this year, but the later may have lost upward momentum.
Safe haven currencies, gold and JPY, have strengthened this week and are likely to perform well if yields remain low.
US real yields have fallen more than nominal yields this year, with a partial recovery in inflation expectations from their fall in Q4 last year. Lower real yields point to weaker fundamental support for the USD, and further support safe havens like gold.
Canadian real long term yields have fallen more abruptly than in the USA, into negative territory, suggesting the outlook for the Canadian economy has deteriorated more than most. This may relate to concern over a peaking in the Canadian housing market. The fall in real yields suggests further downside risk for the CAD.
Long term inflation breakevens have fallen in Australia sharply since September last year to now well below the RBA’s 2.5% inflation target.
Australian leading indicators of the labour market have turned lower, albeit from solid levels, and may be enough, combined with broader evidence of weaker growth, for the RBA to announce an easing bias as soon as April.
Asian trade data and flash PMI data for major countries point to ongoing and significant weakness in global trade.
With the elections this week, the Bank of Thailand (BoT) held rates steady at its March MPC meeting. We are eagerly awaiting the outcome of the election. We won’t place any bets on which party(ies)/coalition(s) will form the new government, but once the political fog clears, the growth story is positioned to continue.
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Asian currencies are, in general, well supported by economic fundamentals in the form of external surpluses and interest rate differentials. Indeed, most Asian currencies display an appreciating bias, contrary to perceptions in 2018 when all of them lost ground to the US dollar. Over the last year the underlying external strength has been reflected in Asian currency appreciation against the US dollar.
In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.
Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma
Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.
London-based investors are turning cautiously optimistic on China’s growth outlook amid the latest easing measures in January
There is still little awareness about the rising deflation risk
Interest in the trade war has subsided
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Legislation on rice tariffication signed by President Duterte into law allows for liberal rice imports, thus, effectively dismantling the State regulatory control over the grains sector. This bodes well for stabilizing food inflation that has been the scourge of low income groups. Lower food prices over time help anchor inflation expectations while ‘freeing’ up purchasing power among low income households for redeployment to support non-food demand. Rice imports would be slapped tariffs with the proceeds targeted at developmental support for vulnerable local rice farmers.
Market segmentation (between local and imported rice), bias for affordable food choices among households with limited incomes, and fiscal interventions to attain food security, would spare the local market from the heavy assault of rice imports.
As these laws on rice tariffication and BSP charter amendments gain traction, we expect the BSP to depend largely on market-based, policy tools in inflation and liquidity management. As high bank reserve ratios lose policy relevance, we sense the likelihood of a conversion to a single-digit reserve ratio over the medium-term. This policy outcome augurs for lower intermediation costs among banks that hopefully translates into better yielding, regular savings and time deposits that could appeal to low income depositors.
Inclusive of the TRAIN law package 1 that’s intact despite the high inflation challenge, the recent institutional reforms provide the backdrop for another round of investment-credit ratings upgrade.
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Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.
Legislation on rice tariffication signed by President Duterte into law allows for liberal rice imports, thus, effectively dismantling the State regulatory control over the grains sector. This bodes well for stabilizing food inflation that has been the scourge of low income groups. Lower food prices over time help anchor inflation expectations while ‘freeing’ up purchasing power among low income households for redeployment to support non-food demand. Rice imports would be slapped tariffs with the proceeds targeted at developmental support for vulnerable local rice farmers.
Market segmentation (between local and imported rice), bias for affordable food choices among households with limited incomes, and fiscal interventions to attain food security, would spare the local market from the heavy assault of rice imports.
As these laws on rice tariffication and BSP charter amendments gain traction, we expect the BSP to depend largely on market-based, policy tools in inflation and liquidity management. As high bank reserve ratios lose policy relevance, we sense the likelihood of a conversion to a single-digit reserve ratio over the medium-term. This policy outcome augurs for lower intermediation costs among banks that hopefully translates into better yielding, regular savings and time deposits that could appeal to low income depositors.
Inclusive of the TRAIN law package 1 that’s intact despite the high inflation challenge, the recent institutional reforms provide the backdrop for another round of investment-credit ratings upgrade.
Prabowo again squandered a chance in a debate to gain ground, as Widodo appeared more confident and in command. Prabowo’s incessant efforts to sow fear of foreigners does little to weaken his opponent. Widodo’s lead was intact as of late January, despite claims from two pollsters (Indomatrik, Median) who are demonstrably unreliable or even fraudulent. Lippo Group owner James Riady suffered repudiation: after having testified in court that he met the Bekasi District chief by coincidence and did not discuss his Meikarta project with her, KPK prosecutors played a phone recording that shows otherwise. BI has held rates steady, citing the current account deficit after a gaping January trade deficit. The government continues its efforts to sack more than 2,000 civil servants who are corruption convicts. Repsol discovered gas in South Sumatra.
Politics: The second of five debates in the presidential election marked another missed opportunity for Gerindra Chair Prabowo Subianto to gain ground on President Joko Widodo. Instead, the incumbent again landed blows that hurt the retired general, highlighting his unfamiliarity with e-commerce jargon and drawing attention to his land assets measuring 340,000 ha. For his part, Prabowo pointedly projected a conciliatory demeanor, perhaps to dispel perceptions that he is temperamental, but it squandered a chance to assail the incumbent and thereby persuade voters to opt for change. Prabowo adhered to form by advocating protectionism and expansion of state involvement in the economy. He used nearly every answer to disparage foreigners, which is an error: sowing suspicion of foreigners does little to weaken his opponent (Page 2) (Transcript translated by Ref Wkly, p. 8). Hard‑line Islamic groups convened again in Jakarta (p. 3).
Surveys: In the July 2014 election, the Center for Strategic Development and Policy Studies (Puskaptis) performed a Quick Count survey of ballot‑station results that declared Prabowo the winner, and the Association of Polling Firms (Persepsi) ousted Puskaptis from its ranks. But the head, Hasan Yazid, has re‑emerged as the founder of Indomatrik, another purported polling firm. Yazid claims to have findings showing Prabowo’s support on par with Widodo’s. Along with supposed findings from another obscure agency, Median, this is injecting confusion into perceptions of the presidential election. In fact, two reputable agencies determined in late January that Widodo’s lead was intact (p. 4).
Justice: In the Meikarta‑Lippo bribery scandal, prosecutors dispute the testimony provided in court last month by group owner James Riady (p. 5). Information Minister Rudiantara faced questioning from the Election Oversight Agency (Bawaslu) for having jested, in an event with ministry personnel, about preferences for presidential tickets (p. 7).
Policy News: Cabinet members are preparing measures that will finally force regional officials to sack civil servants convicted of corruption (p. 7).
Produced since 2003, the Reformasi Weekly Review provides timely, relevant and independent analysis on Indonesian political and policy news. The writer is Kevin O’Rourke, author of the book Reformasi. For subscription info please contact: <[email protected]>.
Energy: Spain’s Repsol announced the largest gas discovery in 18 years – a reservoir in Musi Banyuasin, South Sumatra measuring two trillion cubic feet (p. 8).
Economics: Bank Indonesia (BI) kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 6.0% (p. 9).
Appendix: The presidential candidates debated the topics of infrastructure, the environment and natural resources on 17 February (transcript and analysis, p. 9).
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Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.
Legislation on rice tariffication signed by President Duterte into law allows for liberal rice imports, thus, effectively dismantling the State regulatory control over the grains sector. This bodes well for stabilizing food inflation that has been the scourge of low income groups. Lower food prices over time help anchor inflation expectations while ‘freeing’ up purchasing power among low income households for redeployment to support non-food demand. Rice imports would be slapped tariffs with the proceeds targeted at developmental support for vulnerable local rice farmers.
Market segmentation (between local and imported rice), bias for affordable food choices among households with limited incomes, and fiscal interventions to attain food security, would spare the local market from the heavy assault of rice imports.
As these laws on rice tariffication and BSP charter amendments gain traction, we expect the BSP to depend largely on market-based, policy tools in inflation and liquidity management. As high bank reserve ratios lose policy relevance, we sense the likelihood of a conversion to a single-digit reserve ratio over the medium-term. This policy outcome augurs for lower intermediation costs among banks that hopefully translates into better yielding, regular savings and time deposits that could appeal to low income depositors.
Inclusive of the TRAIN law package 1 that’s intact despite the high inflation challenge, the recent institutional reforms provide the backdrop for another round of investment-credit ratings upgrade.
Prabowo again squandered a chance in a debate to gain ground, as Widodo appeared more confident and in command. Prabowo’s incessant efforts to sow fear of foreigners does little to weaken his opponent. Widodo’s lead was intact as of late January, despite claims from two pollsters (Indomatrik, Median) who are demonstrably unreliable or even fraudulent. Lippo Group owner James Riady suffered repudiation: after having testified in court that he met the Bekasi District chief by coincidence and did not discuss his Meikarta project with her, KPK prosecutors played a phone recording that shows otherwise. BI has held rates steady, citing the current account deficit after a gaping January trade deficit. The government continues its efforts to sack more than 2,000 civil servants who are corruption convicts. Repsol discovered gas in South Sumatra.
Politics: The second of five debates in the presidential election marked another missed opportunity for Gerindra Chair Prabowo Subianto to gain ground on President Joko Widodo. Instead, the incumbent again landed blows that hurt the retired general, highlighting his unfamiliarity with e-commerce jargon and drawing attention to his land assets measuring 340,000 ha. For his part, Prabowo pointedly projected a conciliatory demeanor, perhaps to dispel perceptions that he is temperamental, but it squandered a chance to assail the incumbent and thereby persuade voters to opt for change. Prabowo adhered to form by advocating protectionism and expansion of state involvement in the economy. He used nearly every answer to disparage foreigners, which is an error: sowing suspicion of foreigners does little to weaken his opponent (Page 2) (Transcript translated by Ref Wkly, p. 8). Hard‑line Islamic groups convened again in Jakarta (p. 3).
Surveys: In the July 2014 election, the Center for Strategic Development and Policy Studies (Puskaptis) performed a Quick Count survey of ballot‑station results that declared Prabowo the winner, and the Association of Polling Firms (Persepsi) ousted Puskaptis from its ranks. But the head, Hasan Yazid, has re‑emerged as the founder of Indomatrik, another purported polling firm. Yazid claims to have findings showing Prabowo’s support on par with Widodo’s. Along with supposed findings from another obscure agency, Median, this is injecting confusion into perceptions of the presidential election. In fact, two reputable agencies determined in late January that Widodo’s lead was intact (p. 4).
Justice: In the Meikarta‑Lippo bribery scandal, prosecutors dispute the testimony provided in court last month by group owner James Riady (p. 5). Information Minister Rudiantara faced questioning from the Election Oversight Agency (Bawaslu) for having jested, in an event with ministry personnel, about preferences for presidential tickets (p. 7).
Policy News: Cabinet members are preparing measures that will finally force regional officials to sack civil servants convicted of corruption (p. 7).
Produced since 2003, the Reformasi Weekly Review provides timely, relevant and independent analysis on Indonesian political and policy news. The writer is Kevin O’Rourke, author of the book Reformasi. For subscription info please contact: <[email protected]>.
Energy: Spain’s Repsol announced the largest gas discovery in 18 years – a reservoir in Musi Banyuasin, South Sumatra measuring two trillion cubic feet (p. 8).
Economics: Bank Indonesia (BI) kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 6.0% (p. 9).
Appendix: The presidential candidates debated the topics of infrastructure, the environment and natural resources on 17 February (transcript and analysis, p. 9).
In 2011 the world experienced the best year of demand expansion – in US dollar terms – in any year since the financial crisis, until 2018 that is. But you would hardly realise that that was the case by reading the newswires, the stories there since early 2018 have been about ‘synchronised slowdown’ and, in particular, the demand downdraft from China. The reality is that developed countries (the US, EU, UK and Japan) plus developing Asia (China, India and the Asean-4) produced US$4.1trn of ‘new’ GDP demand in 2011 and in 2018 was on course to produce US$4.1trn in new dollar demand.
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