Macro

• The July CPI was notable for the clear and larger-than-expected fall in services inflation,  driven by a fall in restaurant/hotel inflation. This is a bellwether indicator of price persistence. 
• The August data showed mixed signs on such a basis.  Indeed, services inflation rose back 0.4 ppt to 5.6%, up from a two-year low but still below the BoE projection.
• Indeed, the core would have fallen below 3% without airfares.  Moreover, restaurant inflation hit a new cycle low amid generally softer price pressures in which eight (of 12) CPI components fell.

• Focus on PMIs to confirm more risk positive market tone. Some downside risks in Europe, particularly the UK. JPY weakness over the last week should fade.
• The week starts with the preliminary PMI data for September.  Despite a dip on Friday, the equity market showed a generally risk positive tone through the week.
• This was helped by a confident tone to the FOMC statement which foresaw only a modest slowdown with unemployment peaking at 4.4% and inflation under control.

• Welcome to our weekly EM Watch, where we examine Emerging Markets (with a particular focus on China) from the perspective of Western investors.
• It continues to be a rough month for anything linked to China.
• We have observed early signs of stabilization in China’s pollution data, which may indicate some level of stability at lower levels of industrial output.

• US ADD measure expected to be in force from Sept 27
• Bombarded by Chinese exports Canada too join ADD league
• Tesla exports from China faces ADD in Canada, EU excuses

• Punishment / In Depth: Punishing people for their relatives’ crimes comes under scrutiny in China Legal experts in China are pushing to reform a longstanding practice that can cause law-abiding citizens to lose their shot at joining the civil service, getting into certain university programs or the military if they happen to be related to a convicted criminal.
• The reform push has the potential to curtail the practice — known as collective punishment — that has been criticized for violating basic legal norms and putting a large proportion of China’s population at risk of being punished for the actions of another.
• FINANCE & ECONOMY PwC / PwC Hong Kong next in firing line over Evergrande scandal Penalties and lawsuits loom over PricewaterhouseCoopers’ (PwC) Hong Kong affiliate after China slapped its mainland counterpart with a record penalty last week for its fraudulent accounting for Hengda Real Estate Group Co.

• China’s 19 major domestic systemically important banks hold up well under most solvency and liquidity tests, though some capital shortfalls appear with a moderate or severe NPL sensitivity shock scenario.  
• The safety net would likely be capital injections including from central government as occurred with the largest 4 banks in 1997-04 or takeover and mergers.
• However, small and mid-sized banks shortfall of capital in the more severe sensitivity would test China authorities crisis management and response capacity.

• This week’s main mover is Fed’s surprised rate cut by 50bps. It shakes the market first day it came out and has a positive effect on following day trading.
• While S&P500 is up 1.97%, Hang Seng glitters with a 5.55% increase and break through the technical resistance at 18,000.
• We believe after the Fed rate hike, the entire Hong Kong stock market has changed. With the break through upward of 18,000, Hang Seng can go on to challenge 20,000.

• The Fed made a forceful 50bp rate cut despite data resilience, with concerns of over-easing due to excessive focus on politics and labour demand. Meanwhile, Brazil has begun reversing its rate cuts and the BoE is exercising caution.
• Next week, the dovish focus will shift to the SNB, Riksbank and Bank of Mexico. Fed speakers may moderate dovish extrapolated pricing after strongly encouraging it.
• Key inflation highlights to watch out for are France and Spain’s Flash HICP for September and the US PCE for August.

• Vietnam is streamlining transactions for foreign investors through market reforms as it seeks reclassification from frontier to emerging market status, a change that could drive substantial inflows into its equities.
• Vietnam’s strategic location, low labor costs, and “China Plus One” strategy make it a key player in global manufacturing. Strong domestic growth suggests equity upside.
• The iEdge Vietnam 30 Sector Cap Index provides exposure to Real Estate, Financial Services, and Manufacturing. The index’s forward P/E of 13.65 suggests strong earnings growth ahead.

• For the week ending 13/Sep, US crude inventories dropped by 1.6m barrels, surpassing the expected 0.2m barrel decline. Gasoline stockpiles grew less than forecasted, while distillate inventories rose more.
• US natural gas inventories rise 58 Bcf for the week ending 13/Sep, more than analyst expectations of a 53 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 8.6% above the 5-year seasonal average.
• Chevron, Occidental Petroleum, and Exxon Mobil see target price cuts. DBS Bank initiated a Buy rating on Schlumberger and Halliburton.

• The BOJ maintained its policy rate at 0.25%, consistent with expectations, sustaining globally accommodative financial conditions to support economic growth and wage inflation.
• Global economic conditions, domestic inflation trends, wage-price dynamics, and exchange rate fluctuations will influence future interest rate decisions.
• The BOJ’s current stance reflects a gradual approach to inflation management, focusing on monitoring wage growth and price stability before making significant policy adjustments.

• Prices showing uptrend after a marginal slide in recent times  
• Kerala climate conducive for production, leading to good yield  
• More regions in bid to expand rubber area buoyed by higher prices

• China continues to be the outcast of the investment community even though its GDP is still projected to grow by 4.5% to 5% this year.
• China’s economy has substantial hurdles to overcome but is not in the dire situation portrayed by most commentators and not headed for “Japanification”.
• On the other hand, the US economy has steadied itself but is not in the “Goldilocks” period implied by the media.

• The FOMC announced a 50bps cut at the September meeting, but Chair Powell hemmed and hawed on future rate cuts
• The eye catching market volatility before and after Powell’s presser elevates the importance of effective Fed communication
• The latest market-pricing for the funds rate, though far from settled, is roughly in-line with a no-recession scenario currently

• The FOMC meeting is upon us later today, and that calls for us to publish another short and concise chart-book of asset performances around the first Fed cuts in a historical context.
• Consensus is more or less split evenly between 25 and 50 bps, but there are a few pockets in asset space that performs for (at least) the next couple of weeks regardless of the outcome today if you are to trust history.
• The format is a BUNCH of charts, with short and concise text – so scroll through and enjoy!

• Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning update.
• Today’s version will be short and to the point, allowing you time to digest the meeting later today.
• It serves as a quick summary of the signals we are picking up across our real-time monitors of hedge fund positioning across various assets.

• China’s National Financial Regulatory Administration is urging non-bank financial institutions to improve support for businesses that want to upgrade machinery and to back programs that encourage the trade-in of consumer goods, measures that are gaining momentum in China.
• The administration’s recently issued notice comes as China’s central bank has established a 500 billion yuan ($70 billion) special re-lending fund to help steer financial institutions toward improving support for technological innovation and transformation.
• Now efforts are expanding to non-bank financial institutions, including insurance companies, investment firms, leasing companies and consumer finance companies, which are being urged to enhance their business models and investment to support the transition to intelligent, eco-friendly industrial developments.

• Monetary / Caixin Explains: Why and How China is overhauling monetary policy (Part 3)
• Huawei /Cover Story: Huawei’s smart car ambitions face hurdles as it seeks to replicate Aito’s success
• Corruption /: Ex-education vice minister targeted in corruption probe

• The BoE matched widespread expectations by holding the Bank rate at 5.00%, albeit with the lone dissent (Swati Dhingra) matching our relatively hawkish forecast.
• Little news was seen in UK indicators. Broadly reduced market rate paths and increased uncertainty around near-term global activity could not overcome cautious inertia.
• November was unsurprisingly identified as the occasion for the MPC to fully assess news, consistent with cuts aligning with MPR forecasts and the current consensus.

• The Norges Bank kept its policy rate at 4.5%, aligning with expectations, as it aims to balance disinflationary efforts with the costs of subdued economic growth.
• While inflation has declined significantly, elevated wage growth and weak productivity continue to drive business costs higher, complicating the disinflation process.
• The policy rate is expected to remain unchanged until the end of 2024, with potential easing in 2025, though uncertainties surrounding the krone depreciation and economic growth may prompt adjustments.

• The Korea Exchange is expected to announce its long awaited KRX Korea Value-Up index on 24 September. However, the actual launch of this index will begin on 30 September.
• It is expected to produce two types of indices including a basic price index (PR) and a total return index (TR) under the name of KRX Korea Value-Up index.
• In this insight, we also provide a list of 20 small cap stocks that could be included in the Korea Value Up index.

• The 50bps cut in the Fed Funds rate to 4.75-5.00% will likely be followed with two 25bps cuts in November and December.
• For 2025, we now look for 125bps rather than 150bps, given our soft landing view and also the 50bps being delivered at the September meeting. 
• This would be a 3.00-3.25% Fed Funds rate and just above the revised long run estimate of 2.9%. 

• Good morning from Copenhagen.
• It’s make-or-break this week with Powell taking the stage on Wednesday to reveal whether the rumors from Nick Timiraos about the Fed considering a 50bps cut were actually true after all.
• Markets have been desperately hoping for the 50bps cut, as evidenced by the price action where Fixed Income is being bought regardless of the economic news.

• The Fed is expected to cut rates by 50 basis points on Wednesday, with additional cuts expected in November and December
• There is uncertainty in the markets with regards to the size of the rate cut, with equal probabilities for a 25 or 50 basis point cut
• Near term uncertainty is high, leading to bullishness on volatility in the markets

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Take aways: Freight rates dropped for the first time since 2022, signaling a slowdown in factors driving rate increases.
• Trade tariffs may have minimal impact on the USD and inflation, with fiscal policies playing a larger role.
• A BRICS monetary union could create instability, while Trump’s policies may push the U.S. toward economic risks.

• Sentiment, positioning and valuation provide a similar setup to January 2024
• External macro events leading to a better fundamental environment for China
• Foreign Investors’ disappointment in minimal fiscal stimulus provides an asymmetric opportunity

• Headline UK inflation was broadly unchanged in August. However, core and services inflation rebounded, shrinking the undershoot relative to the BoE’s last forecast.
• Airfares spiked, partly offset by ongoing weakness in hotel prices. Both should unwind in September. The median inflationary impulse sustained the most weakness since 2021.
• Another round of inflation-busting wage increases sustains underlying pressures. Energy prices will also stoke above-target inflation in 2025 but not prevent a BoE cut in Nov-24.

• Malaysian glove industry to rake in RM12.4 billion in exports in 2024  
• Ivory Coast lags in imports to Malaysia after 9-month lead  
• Home Ministry lets 10,000 foreign workers in to meet labor shortage

• Euro area inflation’s headline slowing was broadly confirmed in the final release for August, along with the rise in services and sticky core inflation rates.
• Monthly median impulses are at or slightly above 2% again, as the previous lows look exaggerated. Other underlying measures are also settling excessively high.
• Falling petrol prices compound base effects to push September inflation down. The ECB is braced for a low outcome, so that need not bring forward a cut from December.

• Bank Indonesia unexpectedly reduced its policy rate by 25bps to 6.00% amid controlled inflation and the need to stimulate economic growth, particularly domestic demand.
• The central bank’s decision is also influenced by a more benign global financial environment, with declining inflation and monetary easing in advanced economies leading to increased foreign capital inflows.
• The stability of the Rupiah and healthy capital inflows provide room for further monetary easing, while macroprudential policies aim to support key sectors and boost economic growth.

• China August data was worse than expected and confirms the weak trend in H2, with retail sales a real worry.
• The government risks missing the 5% growth target for 2024 and targeted fiscal policy moves are likely, but need to be implemented quickly. 
• 10bps cut in the 7 day reverse repo rate is also likely in the coming months, with two 25bps RRR cuts. 

• The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 65% probability of a 50 bps rate cut and a 35% chance of a 25 bps cut.
• Given the strong rate cut expectations since mid-August, the focus now shifts to the scale and depth of the cuts for the rest of the year.
• WTI options Put/Call volume ratio fell to 0.75 on 16/Sep from 1.09 on 10/Sep and its OI PCR slid to 0.76 from 0.77 during the same period.

• Inflation’s relative stability and predictability have reassured policymakers of their dovish forecasts, encouraging rate cuts despite some inconveniently resilient data.
• Historically, outcomes two years after slight surprises have still skewed higher. Below-target 2yr forecasts have been three times as likely to surprise higher than lower.
• Realising persistently above-target inflation would match our forecast and ultimately truncate easing cycles. Recent forecast stability only matters in the dovish short term.

• August retail sales have held up a little better than expected with a 0.1% increase though this is largely because autos were more resilient than industry data had suggested.
• Gains of 0.1% ex autos and 0.2% ex autos and gasoline were marginally softer than expected.
• Revisions were minimal with June revised down to -0.3% from -0.2% and July revised up to a 1.1% increase from 1.0%.  Core rates were not revised at all.

• Market pricing suggests nearly a 50% chance of a 50 basis point cut by the Fed, leading to uncertainty in the market.
• The direction of the Fed’s policy is clear regardless of the cut amount, with aggressive easing likely to continue throughout the year.
• Concerns about labor market weakness in Canada have prompted the Bank of Canada to shift its focus from inflation to potential weakening in economic activity.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Geopolitical risks are resurfacing in grain and oilseed markets
• Weather-related risks are impacting agricultural markets, particularly in the US and South America
• US grain export demand is strong, but dry conditions may lower yield potential and delay planting in South America, causing prices to rise

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• We’ve generally experienced a “softer” September than anticipated in terms of interest rates.
• The typical September issuance seasonality takes a back seat to the upcoming first Fed cut in this cycle.
• Nick Timiraos has hinted that some officials are seriously considering going big already next week, so we may be in for a ride.

• After a major dash for cash at the start of September, markets regained some optimism last week (much to my surprise, in all transparency).
• A weak USD, soft USD rates, and soaring precious metals characterized the week, especially after Mr. Fed source #1, Nick Timiraos, wrote an article suggesting that a 50bp cut is in play.
• USD weakness is something we often observe when the Fed begins cutting rates, as they are perceived to be much more reactive and aggressive than their peers.

• The JPY is knocking on a key level vs the USD
• Uncertainty over Fed interest rate decision could be a catalyst for a reversal
• Buy JPY, Gold and Gold miners on any short-term correction

• US oil and gas rig count rose by eight to 590 for the week ending 13/Sep, the first increase in five weeks and the largest weekly gain in a year.
• US oil rig count increased by five to 488 after staying flat for three straight weeks. Gas rigs rose by three to 97, marking its first increase in four weeks.
• For the week ending 13/Sep, US energy producers added three rigs each in Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Wyoming. Conversely, they cut two rigs each in California and Pennsylvania.

• The past week saw insights on Sumber Alfaria Trijaya(AMRT IJ), Indosat Tbk PT (ISAT IJ),Sai Gon Cargo Service (SCS VN), and Dyna Mac Holdings (DMHL SP).
• There were also insights on Silverlake Axis (SILV SP), Dksh Holdings Malaysia (DKSH MK), a sector insight on Malaysian Banks and CrossASEAN Ground Zero on the MR DIY Thailand IPO.
• The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom, from across Southeast Asia.

• US natural gas prices inched by 1.3% for the week ending 13/Sep, as the uptrend moderated following the impact of Hurricane Francine. Production cuts lifted prices last week.   
• Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio rose to 1.45 (13/Sep) from 1.19 the previous week as put volumes rose by 45.4% WoW, while call volumes grew by 19.2%.
• Put volume and OI surged for contracts expiring on 25/Sep, Oct, and Nov. Call OI rose for expiries on Dec, Jan, Feb, and Mar.

• Post our  initiations Southern Copper: In a League of Its Own and Teck Resources (TECK US): The New Purish Copper Play In Town, we initiate on Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) 
• The company provides an excellent channel check for Chile’s mining environment. It accounts for 24% of global mined production in the copper market. 
• We provide a comparison between all the mining players’ ROIC and which are the favorable names to play in the space. 

• WTI futures gained 1.45% for the week ending 13/Sep, as Hurricane Francine offset demand concerns. The smaller-than-expected build in US crude inventories aided in the rebound.
• WTI options Put/Call volume ratio increased to 1.30 (13/Sep) from 1.17 the week prior as call volume fell 36.6% WoW while put volume fell by 29.9%.
• WTI OI PCR dipped to 0.76 for the week ending 13/Sep from 0.78 on 06/Sep. Call OI rose 7.6% WoW and put OI picked up by 4.7%.

• We continue to expect market sloppiness for September and possibly October. The market has flashed a cluster of Hindenburg Omens for five consecutive weeks.
• Investment oriented accounts should regard any near-term weakness as a buying opportunity.
• Pullbacks are normal at this point of the election year, and we expect higher stock prices by year-end.

• Market focused on FOMC with significant risk of a 50bp cut still seen.
• USD upside looks quite limited given current yield spreads. GBP risks still mainly on the downside even if BoE leaves rate unchanged.
• Hard to oppose JPY strength NOK weakness overdue a correction, but Norges Bank may not help .

• The sovereign debt levels of major developed economies are well on the path to fiscal dominance, underpinned by the U.S. fiscal trajectory.
• Mario Draghi’s proposals for European competitiveness also highlighted a need for debt-financed investments that will also substantially raise EU debt to GDP ratios.
• Investors should expect a regime shift toward higher term premiums on bonds and from paper assets to hard assets in the coming years.

• Not all economic indicators will simultaneously flash recession warning signals due to changing labour market dynamics, but Fed officials are wary about the rising unemployment rate.
• Since the COVID-19 pandemic ended, the vacancy rate has exceeded unemployment, resulting in a steeper Beveridge Curve that could enhance the Fed’s chances of producing a soft landing.
• Fed policy can support equity valuations only if money is diverted from money market funds into bond funds, an outcome that will lower expected returns on bonds relative to equities.

• Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced that it increased its policy rate by 100 bps to 19% to tame the stubborn price pressures stemming from high military spending.
• CBR said in a press release that the current inflationary pressures remain high, and annual inflation is likely to exceed the July forecast range of 6.5–7.0% by end-2024.
• The regulator emphasized that growth in domestic demand is still significantly outstripping the capabilities to expand the supply of goods and services.

• OPEC cuts demand growth estimates for the second straight month, lowering its 2024 and 2025 forecasts by 3.8% and 2.2%, respectively, citing demand weakness in China.
• Total production of OPEC members obliged to implement supply cuts averaged 21.48m bpd in August, exceeding the target by 1.6%.
• EIA lowered its 2024 and 2025 oil price forecasts due to slower demand growth. However, it expects a quick recovery in prices driven by declining inventories.

• Looking at press reports that the September FOMC call is a close one between 25bps and 50bps does not persuade us to change our call from 25bps.
• The slightly disappointing August CPI does not exclude a 50bps move, and that whichever option the Fed does choose for September, markets should not assume a string similar moves.
• Economists are still looking for a more moderate 0.2% increase in August core PCE prices, with a number slightly softer before rounding possible.

• Welcome to our weekly EM Watch, where we examine Emerging Markets (with a particular focus on China) through the lens of Western investors.
• It’s been a rough month for anything linked to China, including industrially sensitive commodities.
• According to one of the most reliable live gauges of Chinese energy demand—the Singapore Gasoil-Dubai Crude Crack Swap—we are still on a slippery slope toward weaker demand from China.

• Most Asia-Pacific economies continued to grow at healthy rates in 2Q24, maintaining momentum from 1Q24 despite ongoing uncertainties in global economic conditions.
• For the remainder of the year, the risk of slowdown in major economies and the delicate transition away from high interest rates may cause bursts of market turbulence. 
• But the region should benefit from looser monetary conditions globally, as well as the upsides associated with infrastructure investments and industrial relocations.    

• Odd Lots podcast discusses changing relationship with China on trade
• China’s economy slowing, yet current account surplus increasing
• Doubts about China’s export-driven economic model and overcapacity issues

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Despite resilient US inflation and UK employment releases, market participants continue to anticipate a 50bp cut from the Federal Reserve. The European Central Bank has already made a cut and is likely to make another in December.
• The Bank of England appears likely to forego a cut this month, having already frontloaded its easing in August.
• A 25bp cut from the Federal Reserve is still expected, serving as a reminder for market participants not to challenge the Federal Reserve’s decisions. Despite market anxieties, there is no indication of an impending recession.

• Hang Seng moves sideway in the past week while S&P500 is up 1.61% as the market is overshadowed by expected Fed rate cut next week.
• Both the movements of Hang Seng and S&P500 are within our prediction range and will likely oscillate between narrow ranges until the rate cut next Wed. 
• We are long individual stocks (PLTR) in the US market and Hong Kong market (Link Reit), but bet on the overall market for Hong Kong side only.

• Investors / In Depth: China’s PE investors left empty-handed as cash-strapped startups flout
• Corruption /: Two ex-senior officials accused of holding on to classified materials
• IBM /Exclusive: IBM chief says closing China units is ‘done’ and ‘not reversible’

• On 12 September, the Korea Exchange announced that it plans to list additional 39 stock futures (27 KOSPI and 12 KOSDAQ) and 6 stock options on 4 November.
• With these listings, the stock options will also be available for most of the top stocks in the stock market, including Samsung Biologics and Samsung Life Insurance. 
• Given that shorting of stocks is still essentially banned in Korea, the use of stock futures and options are likely to be increasingly used by investors to improve risk management. 

• Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.
• A lot is happening in markets ahead of what could be a significant turning point in sentiment, with the August CPI report landing in our inboxes at 14:30 CPH time.
• The debate between Harris and Trump seems to have set the tone in markets leading up to the event, with the USD selling off as markets agree that Trump is likely the more bullish of the two on USD.

• Today’s CPI report confirms that the 50bps cut markets were hoping for is now completely off the table, with markets currently pricing in only a 10% probability of such a scenario, compared to 50-60% just last week after the NFP report.
• We knew the energy component would deflate significantly this month, with retail gasoline prices down 20-25% during August.
• The overall report is actually not that hawkish beneath the surface—food prices are stable, used cars and trucks didn’t increase as much as feared, and the commodities part of the core component continues to deflate, despite transportation services and shelter lifting the overall print.

• Headline CPI inflation stayed near 3.6%YoY for the second consecutive month in Aug’24, and core inflation remained benign at 3.4%YoY. A 25bp rate cut remains certain at the Oct’24 MPC.
• Although Sep-Oct’24 inflation is likely to average 5%YoY (because of base effects), the strong monsoon should deliver a bountiful kharif harvest, bringing headline inflation back down to 4%YoY in Jan-Mar’25. 
• We expect the policy rate to decline by 25bp at each of the next four MPC meetings, to 5.5% by Apr’25. Rate sensitive sectors like banks, property, auto-companies will benefit. 

• With recent data raising concern about labor market weakness, and inflation down but not defeated, a cautious 25bps easing of the Fed Funds target likely.
• The statement is likely to leave the Fed’s options open to either accelerate or pause the pace of easing.
• The dots are likely to look quite dovish, particularly in comparison to June’s, but with a substantial variety of views.

• Thailand sees the third Shinawatra installed as its latest prime minister.  Paetongtarn faces the same set of fundamental constraints that plagued her predecessor’s tenure.  
• Cyclical economic weakness will mean that resuscitating growth is crucial to restore public support for her party, but she will find it hard to deliver much in terms of policy.
• Behind the scenes, the internecine tussle between the Shinawatras and the military-royalist establishment will continue to paralyze the government.

• For the week ending 06/Sept, US crude inventories increased by 0.8m barrels, lower than the 0.9m barrel forecast. Gasoline stockpiles rose unexpectedly, while distillate inventories grew more than anticipated.
• US natural gas inventories rise 40 Bcf for the week ending 06/Sep, lower than analyst expectations of a 49 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 9.6% above the 5-year seasonal average.
• BP, Occidental Petroleum, and Exxon Mobil see target price cuts. Schlumberger announces breakthrough in Lithium production.

• The ECB’s unsurprising unanimous 25bp deposit rate cut in September provided little guidance on what’s next. It was not a no to cutting in October, but that seems unlikely.
• Forecasts are the current communication tool, and stability won’t justify a panicked acceleration of easing. We still expect the next 25bp ECB rate cut in December.
• Although risks skew dovishly for October, a historically optimistic call for productivity booming beyond profit norms presents hawkish risks to the ECB’s 2025 forecast.