Macro

In today’s briefing:

Asset Allocation Watch: Still early innings for US cyclicals?
CX Daily: Are Chinese Solar Giants Flying Too Close to the Sun?
Energy Watch: Can oil rally 25% further in Q4?
The Energy Cable #36 – Will We Finally See Chinese Demand with the New Stimulus?
The S&P 500 Index Needs a Macro Miracle!

Asset Allocation Watch: Still early innings for US cyclicals?

Each month, we offer our best assessment of the current and coming month’s macroeconomic conditions and weigh risks against reward – using both our Macro Regime Indicator Framework in combination with the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.
Coming into August, we wrote that: “We have (over the prior month) grown in confidence that the Manufacturing cycle is actually bouncing and that portfolios accordingly have to adjust.
This month, we see 1) rising headline, but falling core inflation, 2) rising PMIs and 3) lower liquidity – the so-called ‘QT-regime’.”Looking ahead, we do not expect sudden shocks or changes to the current conditions.

CX Daily: Are Chinese Solar Giants Flying Too Close to the Sun?

Solar /Cover Story: Are Chinese solar giants flying too close to the sun?
ASEAN Summit /: Chinese Premier Li Qiang to visit Indonesia for ASEAN Summit
Stocks /: China tightens oversight of program trading in stock market

Energy Watch: Can oil rally 25% further in Q4?

Welcome to this short and sweet Energy Watch on the back of the Saudi/Russian decision to prolong cuts of supply through Q4.
It leaves a smell of 2022 in the air and we note how the USD, bond yields AND energy/commodity prices move up in tandem.
An odd cocktail, which can only happen, when Zars and Muftis are in charge of the supply/demand balance in global energy markets.

The Energy Cable #36 – Will We Finally See Chinese Demand with the New Stimulus?

By Ulrik Simmelholt

In this edition of your maverick energy/commodity newsletter from both sides of the pond, we discuss whether the Chinese stimulus will finally see demand picking up markedly in China and whether this could lead to Energy becoming THE consensus bet again.
Let’s dive right in!
Will we finally see Chinese demand with the new stimulus?

The S&P 500 Index Needs a Macro Miracle!

Our simple regression analysis yields an S&P 500 Index estimate of 3,710, or 18% lower than the last closing price of 4,515 based on the latest ISM Manufacturing number.
An ISM Manufacturing Index of 56.5., which means the economy must boom, starkly contrasting with the initial signs of a cooling labor market.
If a ‘soft landing’ occurs, our S&P 500 estimate with an ISM of 52 equals 3,990, 12% lower than the current closing price.

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Sep 05

Daily Brief Macro: S&P 500 Vulnerable to a Setback and more

In today’s briefing:

S&P 500 Vulnerable to a Setback
The Eventual Shift in Fed Policy: When & By How Much?
A Point and Figure Tour Around the World
CX Daily: Why China’s Efforts to Juice Stocks Typically Don’t Last
Services Week: Will Services now turn into the weakest link of the economy?
Macro Nugget: 3 Charts on US Labour market
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Bank Rakyat Executing, Avia Avian, and Thai Politics
Great Game – Biden on charm offensive

S&P 500 Vulnerable to a Setback

By Cam Hui

About two weeks ago, we highlighted the severe oversold nature of the stock market and suggested that it was poised for a relief rally.
The relief rally duly arrived, and a week ago we set out a number of tripwires for traders to take profits on the tactical rally.
The rally is unlikely to continue. The S&P 500 should find strong support in the 4200–4300 zone should the market correct from current levels.

The Eventual Shift in Fed Policy: When & By How Much?

By Thomas Lam

The Fed policy debate, while ongoing, has become increasingly intricate
But an extended history of almost 100 years offers clues on the future rate path
Ballparking the likely timing and extent of the eventual rate cut cycle

A Point and Figure Tour Around the World

By Cam Hui

Sometimes it’s useful to step back and look at the big picture by ignoring the squiggles of the market. One useful technique is the point and figure chart.
Our point and figure tour tells a story of a global cyclical recovery, which should be equity bullish.
Notwithstanding the P&F analysis, a contrarian analysis of China suggests that it is poised for a cyclical recovery.

CX Daily: Why China’s Efforts to Juice Stocks Typically Don’t Last

Stocks / Caixin Explains: Why China’s efforts to juice stocks typically don’t last
China-U.K. /: China-U.K. thaw continues as top officials confer in Beijing
Green /: China, Europe and the U.S. have broad prospects for climate cooperation, top climate envoy says

Services Week: Will Services now turn into the weakest link of the economy?

We highlighted, analyzed and traded the Manufacturing bottom during the early parts of July during our Business Cycle Week, which proved to be a very well-timed rotational call.
The spread between Manufacturing and Services is highly cyclical and driven largely by relative changes in the cost and input structure of companies.
Our thesis is currently that the shift in input cost structures will start to favour Manufacturing over Services in coming quarters, also as goods prices have started to come down, making them relatively cheaper to services from a consumption standpoint.

Macro Nugget: 3 Charts on US Labour market

As you may be aware, a notable abundance of indicators suggests increased credit stress and layoffs.
One of the particularly consistent signals in my chart book is the Conference Board’s Jobs hard-to-get Less Plentiful, which consistently has been leading the unemployment rate
The ongoing accumulation of recent revisions also serves as a signal of potential turbulence in the labor market, possibly indicating forthcoming challenges in the upcoming months.

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Bank Rakyat Executing, Avia Avian, and Thai Politics

By Angus Mackintosh

The past week saw in insights published on Bank Rakyat Indonesia, PT Avia Avian, Ultrajaya Milk, Telekomunikasi Indonesia, Vinagame IPO, and a Digital Core REIT/Keppel DC REIT pair trade.
There were also macro insights looking at Thai political situation, and an insight looking at a more positive outlook for the Philippines, which investors remain dramatically underweight.
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.

Great Game – Biden on charm offensive

By Mikkel Rosenvold

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Great Game.
This week, all eyes are on Asia with a series of high-level summits taking place across the continent.
Both U.S. President Joe Biden and VP Kamala Harris will be flying out to attend in person, but what’s at stake and what are they trying to accomplish?

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Sep 04

Daily Brief Macro: Fed Policy Outlook: Could Housing’s Resilience Force a Higher Inflation Target? and more

In today’s briefing:

Fed Policy Outlook: Could Housing’s Resilience Force a Higher Inflation Target?
The Weekly Market Monitor – Spending Pressure, Labor Lull, and Bitcoin Fatigue

Fed Policy Outlook: Could Housing’s Resilience Force a Higher Inflation Target?

By Said Desaque

Lack of existing homes for sale has supported the demand for new homes where homebuilders have assisted buyers via mortgage rate buy downs.
House price appreciation has resumed again, despite tougher comparisons, thereby helping to support aggregate demand. Future disinflation could spark swiftly declining borrowing costs, thereby complicating policy conduct for the Fed.
Further home price appreciation could undermine the Fed’s efforts to achieve 2% inflation, but political pressure to raise the target could increase in order to maximise full employment and homeownership.

The Weekly Market Monitor – Spending Pressure, Labor Lull, and Bitcoin Fatigue

This week, we look at the skewed US personal income and spending data, concluding that wage growth must take over quickly to keep spending afloat.
This week, we look at the skewed US personal income and spending data, concluding that wage growth must take over quickly to keep spending afloat.
We discuss the latest developments surrounding Bitcoin and a spot Bitcoin ETF. While approval odds steadily rise, low attention and trading volumes reveal that investors are preoccupied with AI.

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Sep 02

Daily Brief Macro: China Is Adding to World Liquidity and more

In today’s briefing:

China Is Adding to World Liquidity, But At A Cost…
Portfolio Watch: Manufacturing versus Services
UK Watch – Are UK assets a go or a nogo?

China Is Adding to World Liquidity, But At A Cost…

By Michael J. Howell

China’s economy is not anything like as ‘bad’ as being reported by the popular media. Yet, there are deep structural challenges which will hinder future economic growth
Monetary policy makers have recently been constrained by the weak Yuan (CNY)
Liquidity is now being re-injected aggressively. More liquidity boosts economic activity. The cost could be a CNY of RMB8/ US$

Portfolio Watch: Manufacturing versus Services

Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Update.
We have had a great week as Energy continues to outperform more labor-intensive sectors, while the USD shrugged off a weak job openings report to rebound into month-end.
The overarching theme from an allocation standpoint is the divergence between Services and Manufacturing.

UK Watch – Are UK assets a go or a nogo?

Conclusions upfront: Stagnation is almost a certainty, while stagflation might only be a reality when looking at core CPI.
GBP looks like a short from here as the BoE is moving closer to a pivot than more hikes. UK Gilts is starting to look interesting as well.
A fair risk/reward in UK equities, but we’re still on the sideline

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Sep 01

Daily Brief Macro: Ifo Watch: The German de-industrialization continues and more

In today’s briefing:

Ifo Watch: The German de-industrialization continues
EM by EM #19 The Simsek Effect kicking in?
CX Daily: China’s Richer Diet Is Straining the Agricultural Industry
EA: Re-Fuelled Upside in Aug-23

Ifo Watch: The German de-industrialization continues

By Ulrik Simmelholt

Yesterday morning we had the anticipated German Ifo report come out in full, and while most parameters did not surprise, some might just be worth a closer inspection – an inspection we’ve decided to carry outKey takeaways up front: Manufacturing components of Ifo showing 2% inflation already yearService components of Ifo showing stickiness Orders to Inventory in Germany bombed out – a recession is the base case with no signs of a restocking regime / cyclical reboundIt was yet another dovish print from the manufacturing sector with regards to price expectations and as we have been highlighting throughout the year the backbone of the German economy points towards headline inflation hitting 2 % around year-end.
Ifo noted that the companies taking part in the survey saw demand weakening this time.
We see two key themes that might throw a wrench into the works: The fragile natural gas situation which we have laid out here and then the sticky core part.

EM by EM #19 The Simsek Effect kicking in?

When we last visited the Turkey case, rumors of Simsek’s potential return to office were surfacing as the markets grew increasingly restless due to the escalating economic challenges.
Hyperinflation reached its climax in the autumn of 2022, propelled by soaring energy prices, while the reserves at the Bank of Turkey were rapidly dwindling creating a rather destabilizing cocktail for Erdogan’s administration.
This was the state of the Net International Reserves on the first of June where our last Turkey piece was written.

CX Daily: China’s Richer Diet Is Straining the Agricultural Industry

Food /: China’s richer diet is straining the agricultural industry
China-U.S. /: China visit ‘excellent start’ to resolve trade issues, U.S. Commerce secretary says
Mortgages /: Rate cuts on existing home loans ‘highly probable,’ China Merchants says

EA: Re-Fuelled Upside in Aug-23

By Phil Rush

EA inflation failed to slow from 5.3% in August, shocking the consensus by 0.2pp in only the second upside surprise since Oct-22. However, it was only 4bps above our forecast.
Core pressures were broadly slightly stronger again but partially offset in our forecast by energy prices, although energy was probably the source of upside for the consensus.
Base effects remain set to drive a substantial slowing over the next two months. We still expect the ECB to hold rates while reserving the option to resume hiking.

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Aug 31

Daily Brief Macro: Seasonality: September Is a Bad Month for ALL Risky Asset Classes and more

In today’s briefing:

Seasonality: September Is a Bad Month for ALL Risky Asset Classes
CX Daily: China’s Offshore Wind Sector Gears Up for Life After Subsidies
Rates Watch: Anything Weak Enough to Receive?
ECB Watch: Damned if you do & doomed if you don’t?
5 Things We Watch – EU Inflation, US Labor Market, European Money Growth, UK Stagflation & IFO
Silver Takes the Lead

Seasonality: September Is a Bad Month for ALL Risky Asset Classes

August and September are the weakest for Equities relative to Treasuries. Staying out of equities during those months would have significantly improved the risk-return profile of a multi-asset portfolio.
September high yield returns are mediocre at best, underpinning that the equity component of the asset class is the return-determining factor most of the time.
September is the only month in which Bitcoin realized a negative return on average. Finally, Gold returns have been solid in September.

CX Daily: China’s Offshore Wind Sector Gears Up for Life After Subsidies

Offshore wind /In Depth: China’s offshore wind sector gears up for life after subsidies
Taiwan /Analysis: Foxconn founder’s independent leadership bid complicates Taiwan opposition efforts
Corruption /: Ex-provincial chief, once in charge of China’s medical reform, caught in corruption probe

Rates Watch: Anything Weak Enough to Receive?

It’s been an ongoing struggle to be on the receiving end of rates for a couple of years and we generally find the rule of thumb to be the following: Don’t ever tactically buy bonds / receive rates until the last hike is in.
Conclusions up front: Inflation momentum is softening the most in Europe (also given today’s data)
GBP rates looks like the best receiver case among majors

ECB Watch: Damned if you do & doomed if you don’t?

As avid readers of our research will know we have been very skeptical of the situation in Europe and how safe the market has treated our own homeland these past months.
When we zoom out and look at the current prints it is rather explicit that the Eurozone is falling behind on a relative basis: the severe energy supply shock, particularly pronounced in Europe (as detailed in my previous discussion on the topic), has been driving up costs.
At the same time, real incomes continue to be eroded due to inflationary pressures.

5 Things We Watch – EU Inflation, US Labor Market, European Money Growth, UK Stagflation & IFO

Welcome back yet again to our weekly ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we take you through 5 of the topics that we follow in global macro this week.
We are in the middle of a hectic week for markets (as usual), with German Ifo numbers signaling a slowing economy in Germany, whilst EU CPI data tomorrow will paint European markets and give us a hint about what the ECB will do next.
In the US it’s fair to say that this week is all about the labor market, which is THE thing to watch in order to understand what the Fed will do next as the tight labor market is one of the main areas of interest for Powell.

Silver Takes the Lead

By ByteTree Asset Management

I don’t know who said it first, but I heard it from John Levin around the time of the credit crisis in 2008.
John is one of the great gold traders who once worked at HSBC but moved home to Sydney and now heads the team at ANZ.
His life ambition is to trade every single ounce of gold that has ever been mined. I’m not sure where he is with that.

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Aug 30

Daily Brief Macro: Political Risks in Asia: Lull In Geopolitical Competition Implies Softening of Risks and more

In today’s briefing:

Political Risks in Asia: Lull In Geopolitical Competition Implies Softening of Risks
Macro Nugget: US Real Estate and Interest Rates
Thailand: Election of New Premier Provides Only Short-Term Respite
Great Game: Ukrainian Breakthrough imminent?
CX Daily: Clock Ticking on Country Garden’s Debt Bomb
Istanbul or Bust: The Decline of Turkish Investor Positioning
The Energy Cable #35 – Are Monster Draws Ahead?
Philippines: Emerging Signs of Investment Recovery

Political Risks in Asia: Lull In Geopolitical Competition Implies Softening of Risks

By Manu Bhaskaran

The likelihood of serious geopolitical disruptions has been reduced as the US-China relationship is better managed and domestic political conditions in Asia stabilize.
While antagonistic non-military measures by Washington and Beijing may continue, both countries will avoid rocking the boat. The odds of a substantial escalation are thus low.
Other regional flashpoints such as Taiwan, the Sino-Indian border, and the South China Sea may see episodic confrontations but these will probably be contained.

Macro Nugget: US Real Estate and Interest Rates

As we approach the zenith of a historic hiking cycle, it’s hardly surprising to see mortgage applications plunging to unprecedented lows.
We’ve previously discussed how households that secured low rates have minimal motivation to relocate or refinance.
Consequently, there’s been a significant drop in volume, which is evident in the decline in purchase applications

Thailand: Election of New Premier Provides Only Short-Term Respite

By Manu Bhaskaran

The election of Pheu Thai’s Srettha Thavisin as the new Thai premier ends, for now, months of political limbo. We expect a lull in political infighting in the short run.
Partially-Restored business confidence and expansionary fiscal policy will bolster the short-run outlook, and Thailand’s bureaucrats may be able to pursue growth-promoting reforms.
However, the longstanding political divide has been reconfigured, rather than resolved. Meanwhile, the economy’s structural challenges remain daunting, whoever is in charge.

Great Game: Ukrainian Breakthrough imminent?

By Mikkel Rosenvold

Welcome to this week’s Great Game – our weekly coverage of the geopolitical arena.
This week our eyes remain fixed on Ukraine where we are finally seeing some movement and developments.
Last week, war reporters on X and other social media began fuzzing about an ongoing Ukrainian breakthrough.

CX Daily: Clock Ticking on Country Garden’s Debt Bomb

Country Garden /Cover Story: Clock ticking on Country Garden’s debt bomb
Tax /: China extends tax incentives by two years to bolster housing market
Housing /: Li Auto’s first pure EV to use CATL’s fast-charging batteries

Istanbul or Bust: The Decline of Turkish Investor Positioning

By Steven Holden

Turkish fund ownership falls to record lows after significant rotation
No single company owned by more than 10% of managers. BIM and Koc Holdings the most widely held
Turkey falls to the 9th largest country allocation in the EMEA region

The Energy Cable #35 – Are Monster Draws Ahead?

By Ulrik Simmelholt

From supply to demand side weakness in 12 months. Key take aways: As opposed to last year, Germany is now seeing the demand side weaken. The supply side uncertainty is prevalent. A thermometer might be your best investment for trading markets this winter. Last Friday we received the August print of the business assessment from German firms via the Ifo Institut and it wasn’t pretty.
As we are nearing the levels seen around the energy crisis of last summer/early fall, we notice the difference in the cause for pessimism.
Last year it was all about the supply side with companies suffering from the high input prices, but this time around companies are telling a story of weakness on the demand side.

Philippines: Emerging Signs of Investment Recovery

By Steven Holden

Philippines fund ownership shows signs of life after decade long bear market
Asia Ex-Japan funds buy in to BDO Unibank, Bank of the Philippine Islands and Jollibee Foods Corp.
Despite this, The Philippines remains a zero allocation for 50% of the funds in our analysis.

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Aug 29

Daily Brief Macro: CX Daily: Why Fewer Criminal Appeals Cases Are Getting Heard in China and more

In today’s briefing:

CX Daily: Why Fewer Criminal Appeals Cases Are Getting Heard in China
Thailand : The Empire Strikes Back
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Grab’s Win, ROTI Oven Ready, and Top Thai Picks
EUR Inflation Watch – It’s all about energy and food
M1 Nugget: European money growth = ouch!

CX Daily: Why Fewer Criminal Appeals Cases Are Getting Heard in China

Law /In Depth: Why fewer criminal appeals cases are getting heard in China
BRICS /: BRICS invites six nations to join as expansion moves into focus
Nuclear /: China suspends imports of all Japanese aquatic products

Thailand : The Empire Strikes Back

By Warut Promboon

Thailand has finally had Mr. Sretha Thavisin as the 30th Prime Minister (PM) of Thailand on 22-August.
The PTP decided to betray its voters to cross the aisle to join the conservative side.
We believe the potential surge in the Thai stock performance should be the time to de-risk.

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Grab’s Win, ROTI Oven Ready, and Top Thai Picks

By Angus Mackintosh

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.
The past week saw insights on Grab Holdings (GRAB US) post results, PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo (ROTI IJ), Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB), and Boustead Holdings (BOUS MK).
There were also insights on UMW Holdings (UMWH MK), Kkb Engineering (KKB MK), Genting Bhd (GENT MK), and XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) plus Dr. Andrew Stotz’s top picks in Thailand.

EUR Inflation Watch – It’s all about energy and food

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our usual inflation outlook for the Euro Area inflation
The format will – as always – be short and sweet with loads of charts so you will be well prepared for the upcoming inflation report.
The HICP measure in Europe has already started turning deflationary in last month’s report for July (although typical in July due to NSA numbers), with Energy as the main driver on the back of falling Natural Gas prices.

M1 Nugget: European money growth = ouch!

We track money growth notoriously at Steno Research and use the growth of money as a forward-looking guiding star for asset allocation.
We just received the latest monthly money trends from Europe and they look outright abysmal.
Money trends are now negative across M1, M2 and M3 on both a monthly, quarterly and yearly basis in Europe and trends are intensifying.

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Aug 28

Daily Brief Macro: Concerns About Capital Flight from China Have Not Prevented Higher Real US Treasury Yields and more

In today’s briefing:

Concerns About Capital Flight from China Have Not Prevented Higher Real US Treasury Yields
Positioning Watch: Has the August Pain Weakened the Bulls?
The Risks to the Resilient Market
Steno Signals #62 – The recession is called off (by consensus)

Concerns About Capital Flight from China Have Not Prevented Higher Real US Treasury Yields

By Said Desaque

The one-way bet on the yuan that prevailed before 2015 no longer exists, while reducing higher two-way exchange rate volatility will become a major objective for the PBoC.
Concerns about economic and financial affairs in China could potentially trigger a scramble for dollars that could force the Fed to offer liquidity swaps to avoid tightening financial conditions.
Yields on US Treasuries have risen due to higher economic growth expectations and ambitious federal government borrowing. Heavy reliance on bill issuance aims to mitigate the fallout on risky assets.

Positioning Watch: Has the August Pain Weakened the Bulls?

Here, we’re all about diving into market positioning to uncover some exciting insights about the bigger picture.
As always, we’ll be digging into the data, pulling out the key points, and spotting the most interesting market trends for you.
Without further ado let’s jump right into itAs we cautioned back in July, it’s no surprise that volatility has been on the rise throughout August.

The Risks to the Resilient Market

By Cam Hui

Ever since the NYSE Composite monthly MACD flashed a long-term buy signal, we have been monitoring the risks to the bull.
We conclude from our risk review that the market faces a number of key macro risks which we continue to monitor, but those risks have not materialized to threaten equities.
However, the threat of rising rates could put pressure on equity valuations and put a ceiling on any potential stock market gains.

Steno Signals #62 – The recession is called off (by consensus)

The most pre-announced recession in human history is still yet to arrive and I don’t think it’s possible to find a period in time where the economist consensus has been continuously on the bearish side of actual outcomes, outside of the one we have just been through.
From a soft landing to a hard landing to NO landing.
That has been the pattern for economic projections both in Q4-2022 and Q1 to Q4-2023.

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Aug 26

Daily Brief Macro: China Property: Policy Announcement Alert and more

In today’s briefing:

China Property: Policy Announcement Alert
The Weekly Market Monitor – One Strike, Two Strikes, …
Jackson Hole Nugget: Who cares about shelter? Powell does
New Indicator Shows China’s Consumers Are Spending — on Services
Portfolio Watch: Waiting for Godot, Powell and 7.30
German Ifo Nugget: Any comfort in the detail?
The Benefits of 30-Year Mortgages

China Property: Policy Announcement Alert

By Robert Ciemniak

A new policy easing focused on homebuyers was released, building on July announcements, and now an option for all cities
More homebuyers will be able to get preferential terms for mortgages as first-time buyers
A joint notice from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the People’s Bank of China, and the State Administration of Financial Supervision

The Weekly Market Monitor – One Strike, Two Strikes, …

We scrutinize market dynamics following the blowout earnings report of the world’s hottest stock, NVIDIA. Something definitely changed.
Incoming PMI data from the Eurozone seriously questions the ‘soft landing narrative,’ which we think should force the end of the global central bank tightening cycle.
China’s economic woes continue to grow, and the focus has now shifted to ending the stellar depreciation of the Yuan.

Jackson Hole Nugget: Who cares about shelter? Powell does

Our short and sweet observations from the Jackson Hole opening remarks from Jay Powell.
To us, hopes of an explicit pause have been postponed further down the road after this speech.
A few highlights:1) Data dependency is still the name of the game – NO promises for further meetings, meaning that consensus does not exist 2) Shelter costs are highlighted, which to me can be seen as a sign that Powell needs an excuse to hike further 3) The Fed is attentive to the risk of the economy running above trend still and monitors the housing rebound closely 4) The lack of spill-overs from the slide in job openings to the unemployment rate puzzles the Fed and they want more data.

New Indicator Shows China’s Consumers Are Spending — on Services

Amid the gloom of China’s economic slowdown, there are some bright spots. A new data series released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Tuesday showed that in the first seven months of the year, consumer spending on services like education and leisure rose at almost triple the pace of overall retail sales.
Retail sales of services jumped 20.3% year-on-year in the January to July period compared with 7.3% growth for overall retail sales, NBS data show.
The bureau did not provide a monetary amount for retail sales of services and did not provide a breakdown of growth by month, but cumulative growth data will be published from now on, NBS spokesperson Fu Linghui said at a press briefing on Tuesday.

Portfolio Watch: Waiting for Godot, Powell and 7.30

We have added a few Europe skeptical bets to our portfolio lately with short GBP/USD and EUR/KRW based on the logic that the Asian malaise will spill-over to Europe with a time lag of 2-3 months.
After all, Europe is still the region (ex. Oceania) with the largest relative export-ties with China.
The USD wrecking ball has mostly terrorized Asian FX so far, while European FX has remained more resilient. We see this as one of the best relative value trades in macro terms right now and find EUR/KRW shorts attractive accordingly.

German Ifo Nugget: Any comfort in the detail?