Macro

In today’s briefing:

Japan Watch: Markets Are Unprepared for BoJ Action
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Siloam International Intl Hospitals, Bank Rakyat, and MrDIY
Positioning Watch: Who Blinks First?
Energy Cable #44 – Energy as a Diversifier + JPY Focus

Japan Watch: Markets Are Unprepared for BoJ Action

It is time for one of the most important Bank of Japan meetings in decades.
Markets remain unprepared for a move, despite the pre-warning of a higher inflation forecast. Here is our preview!
It is a no-brainer for the BoJ to increase the inflation forecast given how firm inflation has been relative to forecasts, but the big question is whether it matters for the policy decision? The short answer is yes.

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Siloam International Intl Hospitals, Bank Rakyat, and MrDIY

By Angus Mackintosh

The past week saw insights on Siloam International Hospitals (SILO IJ), Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ), MR DIY (MRDIY MK), UOB (UOB SP), and Singapore Airlines (SIA SP)
There were alos insights on the Malaysian economic outlook, Vinfast, the LQ45 Index rebalance, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia, Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust, and Medco Energi (MEDC IJ).
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.

Positioning Watch: Who Blinks First?

Hello, everyone, and welcome to our weekly Positioning Watch! I’m certain that our dedicated readers have noticed the absence of last weekend’s edition, but fear not, we’re back with a vengeance today! Typically, we release Positioning Watch every Saturday.
However, we’ve observed that many of our readers actually prefer to peruse it on Mondays so why not add everything that may occur in a weekend?
Therefore, we’ve decided to shift our release schedule to every Monday.

Energy Cable #44 – Energy as a Diversifier + JPY Focus

By Ulrik Simmelholt

Take aways: Correlation in the electricity and natural gas markets in Europe is increasing. Could energy stocks and commodities be the new diversifier?
JPY should be even weaker considering Nat Gas flows. This week an interesting development in the correlation between electricity prices and natural prices caught our attention as seen in the below chart.
Over the last 3 years we have seen the correlation between the two move higher and higher to a point where electricity prices are almost a mirrored reflection of what is going on in the gas markets.

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Oct 30

Daily Brief Macro: Fed Not Concerned About Financial Conditions as US Equity Valuations Resemble Late-1990s and more

In today’s briefing:

Fed Not Concerned About Financial Conditions as US Equity Valuations Resemble Late-1990s
Steno Signals #71 – A First Taste of the Recession Sell-Off?
Could This Be The Start of a Major Bearish Episode?
What A Soft Landing Looks Like

Fed Not Concerned About Financial Conditions as US Equity Valuations Resemble Late-1990s

By Said Desaque

Fed Chairman Powell believes that current financial conditions are not tight by historic standards. Normalising financial conditions could be prolonged due to the low term premium in US Treasuries.
Many investors believe the Fed will be forced to ease policy as tighter settings will eventually imperil financial stability, but high leverage is notably absent at broker-dealers.
Narrow breadth in the S&P500 leadership in 2023 resembles conditions in the late-1990s that masked valuation compression for those constituents that were not market leaders.

Steno Signals #71 – A First Taste of the Recession Sell-Off?

Happy Sunday from a wet and cloudy Copenhagen! Market fears are back and the rising term premiums and real rates are making their way through cross asset moves.
The biggest question to ask right now is whether the pandemic altered the geopolitical and- financial playing field to an extent that will allow >+2% real rates for the next 10-20 years and whether equity multiples can continue to live in a QE world if QE is no longer a thing.
The repricing of cross asset trends due to rising real rates may not be over yet.

Could This Be The Start of a Major Bearish Episode?

The S&P 500 is at a key technical crossroad as it tests support at 4100
The market is oversold, but not as oversold as during the sell-offs in 2022, opening the door to further weakness. Sentiment is turning to indicate a near-term bottom.
We judge the odds of a year-end rally at 70% and further weakness at 30%.

What A Soft Landing Looks Like

The U.S. economy appears to be undergoing a soft landing. The global economy may be boosted by a new round of Chinese stimulus.
Investors can position for this scenario by rotating away from U.S. megacap growth equities to non-U.S. markets.
However, the risk of a credit event and overly strong U.S. growth may derail that bullish scenario.

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Oct 29

Daily Brief Macro: EUR Inflation Watch: A Dovish Surprise in the Making and more

In today’s briefing:

EUR Inflation Watch: A Dovish Surprise in the Making

EUR Inflation Watch: A Dovish Surprise in the Making

We received the first inflation evidence from the Euro area already earlier today as the German regional office in Brandenburg released the preliminary October numbers printing at 0.0% MoM.
That is a very soft reading, fitting hand in glove with our dovish EUR-flation view, and it looks favorable both in unadjusted and seasonally adjusted terms.
A reasonable expectation (based on seasonal patterns + trend) would be to expect a 0.2-0.3% MoM print in Brandenburg for October, so it strengthens our case for a material dovish surprise.

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Oct 28

Daily Brief Macro: CX Daily: Marriage Loses Its Luster in China and more

In today’s briefing:

CX Daily: Marriage Loses Its Luster in China
Ifo Watch: Signs of Disinflation Bottoming Out in Germany?
Portfolio Watch: Equities Running Out of Gas?
The Weekly Market Monitor – Reality Check!

CX Daily: Marriage Loses Its Luster in China

Marriage / Charts of the Day: Marriage loses its luster in China
China-U.S. /: Xi calls for stable ties in meeting with California Governor Newsom
Zhongzhi /: Shareholder in Zhongzhi-linked trust firm delists amid deepening liquidity crisis

Ifo Watch: Signs of Disinflation Bottoming Out in Germany?

By Ulrik Simmelholt

Takeaways: Some very gloomy signs in the IFO survey details with Capital Goods production expectations nose-diving in a recessionary fashionOn the other hand, the highly cyclical Chemicals industry, a large consumer of Natural Gas, is rebounding for the third month running.
Price pressures remain low in the forward looking survey, but there are signs of a stabilization/rebound.
EUR-flation is likely to bottom below 2%, but price pressures could re-emerge already during the spring according to the Ifo Survey.

Portfolio Watch: Equities Running Out of Gas?

Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch! Every week, we assess the risk/reward across asset classes and explain our decisions in our own portfolio.
We once again note the great diversification effects from Energy over the past week.
Front month Nat Gas has been on the move in the US despite relatively weak flow data, which is a strong harbinger of an improving underlying demand dynamic in the industrial sector due to the tick-up in orders books in cyclical- and energy intensive sectors such as Chemicals.

The Weekly Market Monitor – Reality Check!

This week, the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF took another leap forward. And a poll among investors reveals that this will be a game-changer.
Equities tumbled again, and earnings are to blame. Google is down hard as the ‘Magnificent 7’ delivered mixed earnings, nowhere near good enough, given they are priced for perfection!
And that’s not all. The spike in real yields suggests a whopping decline of 25%(!) of the P/E ratio of the S&P 500 Index.

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Oct 27

Daily Brief Macro: The Global Liquidity Cycle and more

In today’s briefing:

The Global Liquidity Cycle
Out of the Box: Central banks are insolvent. How do we deal with it?
5 Things We Watch – Central Bank Outlook, USDJPY, Natural Gas, Credit & Liquidity
Out of the Box #22: Higher for Longer, Yes. But Not What You Expect
EIA Watch: Strong Energy Demand Month in October, Except in Nat Gas
US Policy Watch: Speakership chaos and IRA explained
EM by EM #27 Not a Bazooka, but a Pumpgun
CX Daily: China Readies Relaunch of Shelved Carbon Credits Program

The Global Liquidity Cycle

By Michael J. Howell

The steepening US Treasury yield curve is consistent with a rising Global Liquidity cycle
Independent evidence shows that the Global Liquidity cycle bottomed in October 2022 at an index of 11.8 (range 0-100)
The next Global Liquidity cycle peak is unlikely before September 2025. The investment cycle is in a Rebound investment phase

Out of the Box: Central banks are insolvent. How do we deal with it?

In our “out of the box” series, we aim at being ahead of the current consensus narrative and think of the next theme that could drive price action before anyone else has given it any noteworthy attention.
This week we look at the insolvent G10 central banks and how to deal with them.
It is probably not a newsworthy conclusion to central bank aficionados, but the big question is whether it matters and potentially WHEN it matters.

5 Things We Watch – Central Bank Outlook, USDJPY, Natural Gas, Credit & Liquidity

Global macro never sleeps, and this week is no exception with ongoing turmoil in US equity space amidst the big 7 reporting earnings.
The last quarter of the year will most likely define how asset markets will perform well into next 2024 with USDJPY hovering just below the all important 150 handle and global central banks likely heading towards the end of their cutting cycle.
As always, we have collected 5 of the things we find to be the most important to watch in the current landscape.

Out of the Box #22: Higher for Longer, Yes. But Not What You Expect

Main points:– The economic outlook is uncertain and Biden is spending like there is no tomorrow.
Recession in 2024 remains our base case– The Congress seems incapable of enforcing any fiscal discipline.
Higher structural TGA levels needed for the Treasury.

EIA Watch: Strong Energy Demand Month in October, Except in Nat Gas

Welcome to our inaugural EIA Watch.
Every Thursday, we will assess the demand side of the energy equation via our sophisticated seasonally adjusted models based on the weekly EIA time series.
Conclusions up front: EIA fuel data remains weaker than suggested by actual congestion on roads, in ports and in the air.

US Policy Watch: Speakership chaos and IRA explained

By Anne Sandager

The U.S government will shut down November 17th if a full Congress doesn’t pass 12 individual budget laws – or so-called appropriations – or adopt another Continuing Resolution (CR) that would extend the FY23 budget.
A new CR is hard to imagine given that the GOP lost their former Speaker, Kevin McCarthy, after the first CR was passed.
The U.S federal debt has undoubtedly featured heavily in the closed-door Speaker negotiations in the Republican Caucus. Cutting the nation’s $33 trillion dollar debt is a big priority among the far-right members of the GOP who ousted McCarthy – members who want promises heading into budget negotiations.

EM by EM #27 Not a Bazooka, but a Pumpgun

Conclusions upfront: The Chinese stimulus package is too small and the composition underlines the domestic issues in China.
If Chinese consumers remain conservative, the efforts could be undermined.
We won’t be surprised to see more policy easing in 2024.

CX Daily: China Readies Relaunch of Shelved Carbon Credits Program

Carbon / In Depth: China readies relaunch of shelved carbon credits program China is one step away from relaunching its voluntary carbon credits program after updating key rules for the system, which it shelved more than six years ago due to a lack of uptake and regulatory issues.
Plagiarism /: Chinese artist fined $684,000 in ‘landmark case’ for plagiarizing foreign work
Personnel /: China names Lan Foan to be new finance minister

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Oct 26

Daily Brief Macro: China Stimulus Update – Centralization of Debt Still Means MORE Debt! and more

In today’s briefing:

China Stimulus Update – Centralization of Debt Still Means MORE Debt!
CX Daily: China Banks Jump on AI Bandwagon to Cut Costs

China Stimulus Update – Centralization of Debt Still Means MORE Debt!

The latest wave of China stimulus not only confirms the dire financial state of local governments but also indicates that they have reached the limits of their borrowing capacity.
China President Xi’s visit to the PBoC raises the likelihood of new interest rate cuts and cuts in the Required Reserve Ratio for banks.
This puts the PBoC in a precarious state. No easing means the property recession continues, while the opposite means it must sell more US dollar assets to prevent yuan depreciation.

CX Daily: China Banks Jump on AI Bandwagon to Cut Costs

AI / In Depth: China banks jump on AI bandwagon to cut costs Banks in China are turning to artificial intelligence to save on labor costs and improve efficiency, but the transition faces both technical and regulatory hurdles, according to experts in the field.
Personnel /: China removes defense minister Li Shangfu, state broadcaster says
Diplomacy /: China’s top diplomat to visit Washington

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Oct 25

Daily Brief Macro: Seeking Shelter in Gold on Rising Geopolitical Risks and more

In today’s briefing:

Seeking Shelter in Gold on Rising Geopolitical Risks
Great Game – Calm Before the Storm?
Energy Cable #43: Price Resilience Despite Warm Weather
ECB & Fed Watch: Closing in on ECB Rate Cuts, While the Fed Is Not Done Hiking
UK: Hawkish Correction to Jobs Data
Macro Nugget: Why Argentina Won’t Dollarise
ECB Bank Loan Survey Nugget: Tight Supply and Even Less Demand
CX Daily: Modi Steers India’s Relationship With Russia Through Storm of Ukraine War

Seeking Shelter in Gold on Rising Geopolitical Risks

By Pranay Yadav

Rising geopolitical tensions have driven gold prices 9% higher over the last 2 weeks. Risk of escalation provides further upside to gold prices.
Gold is trading at a key psychological price level of $2,000/oz with a bullish momentum. Previous rallies were rejected from the price level of $2,100/oz.
Consumption is expected to rise in India and China due to higher seasonal consumption in India and fading domestic premium in China. But, higher prices remain a drag.

Great Game – Calm Before the Storm?

By Mikkel Rosenvold

Welcome to this week’s Great Game, which is obviously focused on the ongoing Israel/Gaza war.
In this piece we answer three key questions in geopolitics right now:
1) What on earth are Chinese warships doing in the Middle East? 2) Why haven’t Israel invaded Gaza yet and 3) Have Russia re-gained the initiative?

Energy Cable #43: Price Resilience Despite Warm Weather

By Ulrik Simmelholt

Key takeaways: Temperatures in Europe and the US are above mean levels, but only prices in the US have reacted (materially)
No signs of actual weak gasoline demand
New sanctions on Russia and Iran on the cards?

ECB & Fed Watch: Closing in on ECB Rate Cuts, While the Fed Is Not Done Hiking

In this piece, we are going to compare the ECB and the Fed case systemically on a set of important parameters to ultimately conclude with our base-case and suggested allocations on the back of it.
We will assess the cases on: 1) Inflation 2) Growth 3) Labour 4) Liquidity
Inflation Watch: The ECB is realistically much closer to claiming victory. As we have noted since the early summer, we find the probability of sub-2% inflation in the Euro area much larger than in the US.

UK: Hawkish Correction to Jobs Data

By Phil Rush

Postponed UK labour market data used payroll data to reduce residual seasonality, but only in the latest two months. It revised away last month’s spurious unemployment rise.
The preceding 0.4pp cumulative rise remains as revisions were explicitly time-limited. However, that change still doesn’t look genuine and now seems unlikely to survive.
Monetary policymakers now face a tighter labour market with less likelihood that it is loosening significantly. Excess demand and inflationary pressures justify a rate hike.

Macro Nugget: Why Argentina Won’t Dollarise

Yesterday marked the first round of the Argentine Presidential election, and the results were as follows: Sergio Massa secured 36.5% of the votes, surpassing Javier Milei’s 30.0% and Patricia Bullrich’s 23.9%.
In the upcoming three weeks, the decision will largely rest with Bullrich’s supporters, who must choose between Massa and Milei.
Milei has obviously been the media darling lately with his boisterous promises of rooting out close to all state departments and exchange the hyperinflated Peso with the USD.

ECB Bank Loan Survey Nugget: Tight Supply and Even Less Demand

By Elias Lisberg Glistrup

The net tightening of credit standards amongst Euro Area banks moderated slightly compared with the previous quarter, but the main impact of the tightening still stems from banks’ risk perception.
Banks’ reportedly still see risks linked to a gloomy economic outlook (as do we), and they also remain attentive to company- and situation specific risk when providing or extending credit.
All adding to the tightening lending standards.

CX Daily: Modi Steers India’s Relationship With Russia Through Storm of Ukraine War

India / Cover Story: Modi steers India’s relationship with Russia through storm of Ukraine war
CICC /: Top Chinese investment bank CICC picks new boss
Corruption /: Ex-executive of Shanghai bourse accused of bribery and fake divorce

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Oct 24

Daily Brief Macro: Steno Signals #70 – 10 charts you NEED to monitor in global macro and more

In today’s briefing:

Steno Signals #70 – 10 charts you NEED to monitor in global macro
Stocks Want to Go to the Party, But Bonds Don’t Want to Get in the Car
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Solid BCA, Medikaloka Hermina, and The Keepers Season
Ready to Get Spooked? Properly Comparing Real Yields and P/E Ratios = Massive Downside for Equities!
Asia Economics: China’s Slowdown and Its Challenges and Opportunities for Asia
Malaysia Economics: 2024 Budget Begins Long Journey of Fiscal Consolidation

Steno Signals #70 – 10 charts you NEED to monitor in global macro

The world of Macro never fails at keeping us busy and this week I reveal the 10 charts that I currently monitor daily to keep myself up to speed on allocations amidst this turbulence. Enjoy (the ride)!

It’s been evident for a while that the diversification effects from US Treasuries are weak and we are now approaching a record high correlation between Equity and Bond returns.
If you haven’t already altered your portfolio composition, it is already overdue as the 60/40 portfolio seems structurally challenged.

Stocks Want to Go to the Party, But Bonds Don’t Want to Get in the Car

Surging yields have not only cratered bond prices, but also created severe valuation headwinds for stock prices.
A fundamental and technical review of the U.S. Treasury market shows that bond prices are poised for a rally.
The fundamental and technical picture for U.S. equities is even brighter as fundamental momentum and oversold conditions point to a strong rebound.

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Solid BCA, Medikaloka Hermina, and The Keepers Season

By Angus Mackintosh

The past week saw insights on Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ), Medikaloka Hermina (HEAL IJ),Sariguna Primatirta (CLEO IJ), Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM), and Shakey’s Pizza (PIZZA PM).
There were also insights on The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM), Geo Energy Resources (GERL SP), Thai Banks, the Indonesian economy, and Indonesian politics.
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.

Ready to Get Spooked? Properly Comparing Real Yields and P/E Ratios = Massive Downside for Equities!

Comparing real yields and P/E ratios shows little relationship between the two. However, this is because this is the wrong comparison and includes the issue of regime shifts.
Our analysis shows that equity market valuation is extremely vulnerable to spiking real yields.
Based on history, the S&P 500 Index should become 25% cheaper as the colossal rise in real yield continues.

Asia Economics: China’s Slowdown and Its Challenges and Opportunities for Asia

By Manu Bhaskaran

Beyond the cyclical difficulties, China is likely to see a secular slowdown in growth. There will be short-term pain for the rest of Asia due to the negative spillovers.
Contracting import demand in China will hurt growth and currency stability in the rest of Asia. However, there are signs of resilience despite the trade slump.
The medium-to-long run implications may be more benign if other Asian economies can benefit from the restructuring of supply chains and trade linkages.

Malaysia Economics: 2024 Budget Begins Long Journey of Fiscal Consolidation

By Manu Bhaskaran

The first full-year budget of Malaysian premier Anwar Ibrahim sends a signal that the government is determined to return fiscal policy towards pre-pandemic norms.
A rise in the sales and services tax, new taxes on capital gains and luxury goods, and a proposed global minimum tax suggest a determination to broaden the tax base.
The heavy lifting in reducing expenditures comes from a reduction in the subsidy bill. Efforts to streamline electricity and diesel subsidies may just be the beginning.

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Oct 23

Daily Brief Macro: Central Bank Watch: The Fed has gone from QE to QT to QB and more

In today’s briefing:

Central Bank Watch: The Fed has gone from QE to QT to QB
Fade the War Hysteria
Portfolio Watch: Time to consider (EUR) bonds?
Positioning Watch: Shifting Gears without Panic
EM by EM #26: Biden, Blinken, Barrels & Beijing
US Treasury Watch: An opportunity of a decade or still the pain trade?
US Corporate Animal Spirits Dented by Fed Policy Normalisation, but Profits Remain Resilient
Is the Unemployment Rate Drifting Higher or Lower?

Central Bank Watch: The Fed has gone from QE to QT to QB

The extreme volatility in the USD curve continues and Jay Powell gave a green light to further curve steepening by hinting that term premias could drive up the curve allowing the Fed to tighten a little less in the front.
In this piece, we are going to take a deep dive into central balance sheet structures in the US and in Europe, which reveals that the ECB is much more determined in its attempts to bring liquidity down relative to the Fed.
This is another reason to expect EUR-flation to drop faster than USD-flation.

Fade the War Hysteria

Oil prices have jumped over $6 a barrel since the Hamas attack on Israel as a geopolitical risk premium became embedded in the oil price.
Our review of the military backdrop, oil supply-demand factors and the market response to the crisis leads us to conclude that investors should fade any hysteria over a Mideast conflict.
However, regional equity markets like Israel and Saudi Arabia should be avoided, each for their own idiosyncratic reasons.

Portfolio Watch: Time to consider (EUR) bonds?

We of course have been totally explicit about how stocks have been a minefield to go long since August and while I entertained the thought of a brief comeback on the back of a potential breather at the long-end of the UST curve, it is rather obvious that none of that is really playing out.
The bond market is in a sad state and risk assets struggle to keep afloat and we grace ourselves of having no net exposure to either asset class.
We are currently in the process of thoroughly reviewing our portfolio and are actively considering the inclusion of bonds to profit from the prevailing disinflationary pressures and the overall subdued economic outlook

Positioning Watch: Shifting Gears without Panic

Another week of blood and drama. But fear not, we’re here to wrap up the week with our usual watch series, where we’ll gauge the current market sentiment using the latest positioning data.
First things first, let’s take a quick peek at the chart of the week down below. In yesterday’s Portfolio Watch, we spilled the beans about some big changes we’re planning for our portfolio.
One of the main reasons we’re making these moves now is because of what we see in this chart: The S&P 500 just dipped below its 200-day moving average support line, waving a red flag that suggests we might be in for a bumpy ride in the coming weeks

EM by EM #26: Biden, Blinken, Barrels & Beijing

Both Biden and Xi find themselves walking on thin ice as domestic economic challenges pose a significant challenge to their foreign policy goals.
Amidst the considerable volatility in risk assets and US Treasury bonds, we believe that commodities could present a favorable risk-reward opportunity.
Our forecast of a possible recession is further complicated by price pressures arising from the pending restocking and the geopolitical risksIt’s hard to overlook the remarkable resilience of the US economy and the current turbulence in global bond markets.

US Treasury Watch: An opportunity of a decade or still the pain trade?

By Elias Lisberg Glistrup

Some much-needed bids provided relief to the bedrock treasury market last week, and yields eased off a bit.
The relief was short-lived though, and this week’s yields continue its climb.
But, is now a golden opportunity for buying bonds, or is the cocktail of vast issuance, some CBs unwinding their holdings, and still poor appetite bound to send yields even higher?

US Corporate Animal Spirits Dented by Fed Policy Normalisation, but Profits Remain Resilient

By Said Desaque

US economic resilience can be explained by corporations not experiencing the same magnitude of interest rate hikes endured by banking customers due to their ability to raise capital market funding.
US corporate buyback activity has fallen significantly since 2022 Q1 due to uncertainty about the economic outlook. The new 1% buyback tax has hitherto not significantly impacted S&P500 operating EPS.
Animal spirits within the corporate sector are difficult to gauge. Proxies for animal spirits do not currently indicate high levels and are seemingly at odds with tight labour market conditions.

Is the Unemployment Rate Drifting Higher or Lower?

By Thomas Lam

Arguably, the current normalization of inflation, including the future path of Fed policy, is linked to the unsettled labor market dynamics
The Beveridge curve, depicting an inverse relationship between vacancies and unemployment, offers clues on the ongoing labor market rebalancing
While my exercise suggests that the unemployment rate is likely to drift up as vacancies decline, the extent of the rise remains uncertain

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Oct 21

Daily Brief Macro: ‘The End of China’ Narrative Is Completely Wrong: Think Liquidity and more

In today’s briefing:

‘The End of China’ Narrative Is Completely Wrong: Think Liquidity, Think Cycle
CX Daily: Four Things to Know About Tightened U.S. Rules Over Chip Exports to China
The Weekly Market Monitor – Where’s the Plunge Protection Team?
UK Small/Midcap Fund Positioning Update

‘The End of China’ Narrative Is Completely Wrong: Think Liquidity, Think Cycle

By Michael J. Howell

The popular ‘End of China’ narrative is wide-of-the mark. China has suffered a self-induced (Western-style) demand slowdown to protect the Yuan
2023 seems to have brought in a new policy regime that emphasizes domestic GDP growth over a rigid exchange rate
Watching liquidity is crucial. Latest evidence shows the People’s Bank injecting substantial funds back into domestic money market. Expect a coming cyclical pick-up

CX Daily: Four Things to Know About Tightened U.S. Rules Over Chip Exports to China

Chips /: Four things to know about tightened U.S. rules over chip exports to China
Belt and Road Initiative /: Putin says Arctic shipping route could be navigable year-round by 2024
Default /: Distressed Country Garden logs first bond default

The Weekly Market Monitor – Where’s the Plunge Protection Team?