Macro

In today’s briefing:

CX Daily: EU Probe Into Chinese EV-Makers’ Alleged State Support
Energy Watch: The perfect bull-signal delivered by Olaf Scholz?
EM by EM #29: Biden’s Party, EM’s Hangover & Scholz’s Nightmare
Out of the Box #23: Why the Treasury undershoots actual issuance needs
UK Pain More Persistent Than BoE Thinks

CX Daily: EU Probe Into Chinese EV-Makers’ Alleged State Support

Probe / Caixin Explains: EU probe into Chinese EV-makers’ alleged state support
China-Australia /: China, Australia agree to boost engagement in trade, energy
Property /: China should avoid a real estate ‘hard landing,’ former Chongqing mayor says

Energy Watch: The perfect bull-signal delivered by Olaf Scholz?

We typically release our weekly EIA Watch on Thursdays but given this press release from the EIA, we will not be able to update the demand side data this week.
Instead, we will have a look at some of the most important indicators in the Energy space as oil markets have left blood on the streets lately, leading Saudi Arabia to once again “call out” short sellers.
Is there a fundamental downturn in demand or is this recent trend in oil once again driven by the positioning of paper markets?

EM by EM #29: Biden’s Party, EM’s Hangover & Scholz’s Nightmare

Here at Steno Research, our primary concern has been growth rather than inflation since around the end of H1.
While this divergence is gradually gaining mainstream recognition, emerging markets have been well ahead of the curve.
Consequently, disinflationary surprises continue to be prevalent.

Out of the Box #23: Why the Treasury undershoots actual issuance needs

Main takeaways: The recent bond-relief onset by the QRA needs risk-off sentiment to be sustained. If not we may well see further pain coming into 2024
CBO’s & OMB’s forecasts are all over the place and based on a soft landing and no additional spending for 2024 (good luck)
Treasury Borrowing Advisory Council’s funding recommendations that outline the issuance plans are based on the forecasts above and will likely surprise markets substantially unless we see a fiscal consolidation

UK Pain More Persistent Than BoE Thinks

By Phil Rush

The BoE supported its assessment of cyclical inflationary pressures by raising its NAIRU estimate but still sees that contribution and effective inflation expectations easing.
We believe stickier expectations are supporting wages, which would better fit the gloomier recruitment surveys and stability in structural determinants of unemployment.
Excessive wage settlements may prove surprisingly resilient, encouraging the BoE to stay on hold longer than it currently envisages. We see the first BoE cut in 2025.

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Nov 09

Daily Brief Macro: 5 Important Factors Impacting Shorting Korean Stocks Rules + Shorting the Dutch East India Company and more

In today’s briefing:

5 Important Factors Impacting Shorting Korean Stocks Rules + Shorting the Dutch East India Company
OUCH! The Slump in the ISM Manufacturing Suggests 20% Downside for Equities
5 Things We Watch: Macro Regime, Riyadh Accord, Sloos, Ukraine, USD
Credit Nugget – Who’s got the tightest standards, and what does it mean for credit spreads
CX Daily: China’s Ambition to Build a Financial Powerhouse

5 Important Factors Impacting Shorting Korean Stocks Rules + Shorting the Dutch East India Company

By Douglas Kim

In this insight, we discuss the five important factors impacting potential regulations changes of shorting stocks in Korea.
The Korean regulators are actively considering a plan to limit the short selling repayment period for foreign and institutional investors to 90 days (same as the individual retail investors).
More than 400 years ago in 1609, a Dutch businessman called Issac Le Maire started to short shares in the Dutch East India Company.

OUCH! The Slump in the ISM Manufacturing Suggests 20% Downside for Equities

Based on the historical relationship between the ISM Manufacturing and US Equities, the S&P 500 Index should collapse to 3,533 after the disappointing ISM reading of 46.7.
Our ISM – Implied Returns analysis reveals that even if the ISM Manufacturing recovers to above 50 in the coming months, there is no upside for US and Global Equities.
Finally, in each of the three ISM Manufacturing scenarios, there is upside for US Treasuries. The ISM Manufacturing Index is very clear on asset allocation: Bonds over Stocks, big time.

5 Things We Watch: Macro Regime, Riyadh Accord, Sloos, Ukraine, USD

This week we would like to draw your attention to our monthly macro regime indicator which has been updated.
Then we’ll argue for a Riyadh Accord, and after that look at this week’s SLOOS release.
Then it is time to talk geopolitics and Ukraine.

Credit Nugget – Who’s got the tightest standards, and what does it mean for credit spreads

Hello everyone, and welcome to an update on global credit conditions as credit surveys have been published lately by some of the biggest economies worldwide, with the Fed releasing SLOOS and Japan releasing their equivalent.
Credit has not really been mentioned much, and has gone a bit under the radar as credit spreads have remained silent, signaling that there was nothing to worry about, but the more we dig into it, the more it looks like the spreads will have to move sooner rather than later.
That’s at least what the surveys are telling us..

CX Daily: China’s Ambition to Build a Financial Powerhouse

Financial Conference / In Depth: China’s ambition to build a financial powerhouse
Law /: China to update state secrets law amid increase in spying
Personnel /: He Lifeng is running China’s two top new financial overseers

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Nov 08

Daily Brief Macro: Thailand: Government Shows Early Signs of Impotence and more

In today’s briefing:

Thailand: Government Shows Early Signs of Impotence
Macro Regime Indicator: Heavy Long in Cyclical FX
CX Daily: The Miracle and Mirage of Weight Loss Drugs
Great Game – 3 Key Predictions for the Ukraine War in 2024
Inventory Nugget – How Are World Inventories in Metals and Grains Looking?

Thailand: Government Shows Early Signs of Impotence

The cyclical outlook for Thailand remains mixed despite the formation of the government. Signs of policy impotence are emerging, limiting the administration’s ability to respond.
The messy implementation of Pheu Thai’s flagship digital wallet is but one sign of policy paralysis. The pro-Thaksin party is stuck in myopic populism to prop up its support.
The unwieldy composition of the coalition means that hopes for economic and political reform are unlikely to be met. Economic upsides from political stability are thus limited.

Macro Regime Indicator: Heavy Long in Cyclical FX

By Elias Lisberg Glistrup

With the turn of October, it’s time for our monthly evaluation of both the present and coming month’s macroeconomic conditions, in which we weigh risks against rewards.
In order to do so, we employ both our Macro Regime Indicator framework and the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.
In combination, these tools provide an empirically rooted portfolio allocation, given the identified macro conditions and drivers in financial markets.

CX Daily: The Miracle and Mirage of Weight Loss Drugs

Drugs / Cover Story: The miracle and mirage of weight loss drugs
Expo /: U.S. Agriculture Department to debut at China’s largest import fair
Corruption /: Former ICBC vice president under investigation for suspected corruption

Great Game – 3 Key Predictions for the Ukraine War in 2024

By Mikkel Rosenvold

It’s finally time to turn our eyes back to Ukraine in this series – and we have a lot to talk about! Will Ukraine hold presidential elections next year and what about that Zaluzhny interview?
The Ukrainian summer offensive has been an almost complete failure with very few advances made.
General Zaluzhny – the Ukrainian commander-in-chief – admitted as much in a recent interview with the Economist and asked for a reversed strategy – more on that later.

Inventory Nugget – How Are World Inventories in Metals and Grains Looking?

Welcome to another one of our short nuggets, where it’s all about the charts and short conclusions! Today we will briefly dig into the world of commodity inventories, which despite tightness doesn’t seem to matter unless demand surprises positively to the upside.
Something tells us that’s exactly what’s gonna happen.
We will mainly focus on industrial metals and grains, whereas energy inventories will be covered in our weekly Energy Cable / EIA Watch.

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Nov 07

Daily Brief Macro: Regional Economics: A Turning Point in Asian Trade Paves Way for 2024 Recovery and more

In today’s briefing:

Regional Economics: A Turning Point in Asian Trade Paves Way for 2024 Recovery
Energy Cable #45 – The World Needs a Riyadh Accord
Credit Watch: The Worst Is Behind Us in the SLOOS, But…
Positioning Watch: Prepared for a Short Squeeze?
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – GoTo’s Pivot, Astra’s Sustainability Push, and Mayora Indah

Regional Economics: A Turning Point in Asian Trade Paves Way for 2024 Recovery

Merchandise trade in Asian markets has been battered by headwinds from tight monetary conditions and growth slowdowns in major economies. This may draw to a close soon.
Leading indicators such as air and sea cargo are turning a corner, while a robust automobile sector provides a foundation for a broader-based export recovery.
While our optimism is moderated by contractionary manufacturing conditions, including new export orders, Asian exporters can nonetheless expect a better 2024.

Energy Cable #45 – The World Needs a Riyadh Accord

By Ulrik Simmelholt

Last week we got news that MBS is still keen on pursuing a mega deal with the US that would normalize relations with Israel.
We envisage a scenario in which Biden for instance gets MBS to open the crude oil taps and in return lets the Saudis get their hands on American military hardware and perhaps more importantly helps push global disinflation and a weaker USD.
We note that the House has passed substantial sanctions on Iranian Oil just about when traders are going short.

Credit Watch: The Worst Is Behind Us in the SLOOS, But…

The quarterly SLOOS survey from the Fed was released a bit more than an hour ago and the results resemble the quarterly credit surveys from Japan and Europe released ahead of the US ditto.
There is a sequential improvement in demand, while fewer banks tighten standards compared to Q3.
So, is it good news or did the survey rather confirm the credit contraction?

Positioning Watch: Prepared for a Short Squeeze?

Hello everybody and welcome back to our Monday Positioning Watch! We’re here again on this fine Monday, ready to delve into our take on the market’s current temperature based on the latest Positioning and CFTC data.
Last week, we left off with the possibility of an impending bear market rally.
If that indeed plays out, it’s the positions with the heaviest shorts that are most at risk and we expect the bleeding is not done.

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – GoTo’s Pivot, Astra’s Sustainability Push, and Mayora Indah

By Angus Mackintosh

The past week saw insights on GoTo post its pivotal results, Astra International (ASII IJ), Bukalapak (BUKA IJ), Mayora Indah (MYOR IJ), DBS (DBS SP) and Indika Energy (INDY IJ).
The was also a macro insight on Singapore, a sector insight on Indonesian Banks, and credit insights on Lippo Karawaci (LPKR IJ) and Pertamina Geothermal Energy PT (PGEO IJ).
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.

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Nov 06

Daily Brief Macro: Steno Signals #72 – When a Recession Meets a Melt-Up in Equities and Bonds and more

In today’s briefing:

Steno Signals #72 – When a Recession Meets a Melt-Up in Equities and Bonds
Will Euro Shrink to Parity to the Dollar on Diverging Macro Economic Conditions?
How the U.S. Could Both Be In A Bull and Bear Market
Nine Reasons Why This Rally Has Legs
US Treasury Continues Yield Curve Control as Short-Term Interest Rate Expectations Dip

Steno Signals #72 – When a Recession Meets a Melt-Up in Equities and Bonds

Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial! What a week.
The BoJ no longer has a firm guidance towards higher 10yr bond yields, the Fed accepted higher long bond yields as an excuse to pause and economic data has been abysmal.
That cocktail has so far allowed the everything rally to thrive in a way we haven’t seen in quarters, but the feedback loop introduced by the big central banks may limit the scope of the bear market rally.

Will Euro Shrink to Parity to the Dollar on Diverging Macro Economic Conditions?

By Srinidhi Raghavendra

Since December 2002, the euro has traded above parity to the USD with the only exception being the last quarter of 2022.
Following central banks rate decisions to pause hikes across both sides of the Atlantic, volatility in the Euro/USD pair is near 12-month lows.
Low volatility equates to lower option premiums. Periods of low volatility offer best opportunity for going long options.

How the U.S. Could Both Be In A Bull and Bear Market

By Cam Hui

U.S. equity averages recently violated their 200 dma but a historical study found that violations are benign as long as the moving average is rising.
The rising dma is only evident in the megacap growth-dominated S&P 500. Mid and small caps are becoming value candidates.
How you position yourself will depend on your time horizon and whether you are a momentum or value investor.

Nine Reasons Why This Rally Has Legs

By Cam Hui

The stock market reached an extreme oversold condition and a relief rally is underway. Every oversold rally begins with short covering, but needs more buying fuel to continue.
Evidence of insider buying, even after the onset of the rally, provides bottom-up fundamental support to further gains.
In addition, psychological relief from macro uncertainty also provides top-down bullish fuel for a sustainable advance,

US Treasury Continues Yield Curve Control as Short-Term Interest Rate Expectations Dip

By Said Desaque

Excessive reliance on T-bill issuance by the Treasury reflects a form of yield curve control to prevent a higher term premium from damaging US financial conditions.
The impact of higher borrowing on bank reserves has been reduced by the return of money market funds as investors and their lower participation in the Fed’s Reverse Repo Programme.
Persistently high government borrowing for geopolitical conflicts will raise the real return demanded by Treasury investors, because defence spending does not beneficially impact the supply-side of the economy.

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Nov 05

Daily Brief Macro: Korean Government Ready to Temporarily Suspend Short-Selling: A Move to Gain More Votes? and more

In today’s briefing:

Korean Government Ready to Temporarily Suspend Short-Selling: A Move to Gain More Votes?

Korean Government Ready to Temporarily Suspend Short-Selling: A Move to Gain More Votes?

By Douglas Kim

On 3 November, numerous local media outlets reported that the Korean government is likely to temporarily suspend short selling in the Korean stock market.
According to a high level ruling party official, the Korean government plans to announce temporary ban on short selling stocks no later than on 15 November for about six months.
There is a major legislative election in Korea in April 2024. If there is a temporary ban on short selling stocks, this could be viewed negatively by many foreign investors.

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Nov 04

Daily Brief Macro: QT Dead…Risk On Again? and more

In today’s briefing:

QT Dead…Risk On Again?
CX Daily: Huawei’s EV Partnership Yields Unexpected Hit
Portfolio Watch: November Bear Market Rally?
China Manufacturing Contracts for First Time in Three Months, Caixin PMI Shows
The Weekly Market Monitor – Did Powell Kill the Bear?

QT Dead…Risk On Again?

By Michael J. Howell

Three events have changed investors’ mood: US Quarterly Refunding (QRA), Fed FOMC Statement and H4.1 Release, and a downbeat October ISM Print
Most important by far is the QFA. This effectively ‘added’ a net US$80 billion of liquidity to US markets. It confirm ‘fact’ that QT effectively dead
Risk still remain in our view. These events underscore a flat market in risk assets. Equity bull market still requires positive Central Bank liquidity injections and a stable bond market

CX Daily: Huawei’s EV Partnership Yields Unexpected Hit

Huawei / In Depth: Huawei’s EV partnership yields unexpected hit
Li Keqiang /: Reflecting on Li Keqiang’s visits to Hong Kong: Savoring sweet soup, speaking English, and respecting the market
Bonds /: Chinese local governments rush to launch infrastructure projects to tap into $137 billion of sovereign bonds

Portfolio Watch: November Bear Market Rally?

Hello Everybody and welcome back for our weekly Portfolio Watch! As I am sure you are aware we have been awaiting the exact market move we have seen this week: The long end of the UST curve catching a breather fueling an inevitable risk-on rally.
That fear is essentially why we have abstained from going full-on short beta these past weeks.
A decision we are content with this week.

China Manufacturing Contracts for First Time in Three Months, Caixin PMI Shows

Activity in China’s manufacturing sector contracted in October for the first time in three months, dragged down by weak external demand, a Caixin-sponsored survey showed Wednesday.
The Caixin China General Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which gives an independent snapshot of the sector, fell to 49.5 in October from 50.6 the previous month.
An index reading above 50 signals an expansion in activity, while a number below that indicates a contraction.

The Weekly Market Monitor – Did Powell Kill the Bear?

Fed Chairman Powell unintentionally re-emerged as a central bank dove. Yet, the poor ISM Manufacturing Index reading paints an entirely different picture, signaling 17%(!) downside.
Apart from the fact that US Small Caps cannot rely on Big Tech Companies to send prices higher, there is another compelling reason why they have been underperforming – debt.
Earnings season: Negative price reactions meet mixed surprises. This is especially true in the US, where valuation looks demanding. Interestingly, price-earnings action in China may signal a bottom is in.

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Nov 03

Daily Brief Macro: Sentiment Nugget: What are Central Banks Actually Telling Us? and more

In today’s briefing:

Sentiment Nugget: What are Central Banks Actually Telling Us?
CX Daily: China Concludes Sixth Top Financial Meeting to Tackle New Challenges
EIA Watch: Oil demand up, Fuel demand down..
EM by EM #28 The Truth Hidden in Plain Sight
Powell Beats UGLY ISM in Two Sentences – Stocks Fly
BoE: Roasting in Persistent Inflation

Sentiment Nugget: What are Central Banks Actually Telling Us?

At this point in the policy path, our Central Bank Sentiment trackers are showing some meaningful signs of life – not of all it totally anticipated.
Here we highlight some key observations made over the last month around what Central Bank language is actually telling us from a quantitative point of view.
We regularly track and update our measure of positivity/negativity of Bank language contained in statements, outlooks and speeches on a scale of -1 to +1.

CX Daily: China Concludes Sixth Top Financial Meeting to Tackle New Challenges

Financial meeting / Caixin Explains: China concludes sixth top financial meeting to tackle new challenges
Personnel /: China’s wave of ministry-level leadership shakeups rolls on in October
PE /: Communist Party cadres told to steer clear of private equity

EIA Watch: Oil demand up, Fuel demand down..

Welcome to our weekly EIA Watch where we use our sophisticated models to filter noise from actual trends in the EIA demand data for Energy products.
Since a week ago, Oil has rebounded in the non-adjusted implied demand while transportation fuel demand weakness is seen across Gasoline and especially Diesel.
We continue to find the Gasoline demand out of whack with reality, while the Oil demand looks to be closer to the actual demand.

EM by EM #28 The Truth Hidden in Plain Sight

Key Points: The recent UST rally may offer relief to risk assets, and the market appears well-positioned for a bear market rally.
Our perspective remains unchanged: we believe the underlying economy is weaker than what current market sentiment reflects.
Persistent concerns surround China’s economic challenges, casting doubt on the sufficiency of the stimulus package, and financial fragility remains unresolved.

Powell Beats UGLY ISM in Two Sentences – Stocks Fly

Adding the word FINANCIAL to the FOMC statement confirms that Powell & Co. are putting more emphasis on the recent rise in (long-term) interest rates in the Fed’s decision-making.
Powell overshadowed incoming macro data, revealing that the ISM Manufacturing Index fell sharply to 46.7 in October, ending its already tepid recovery.
Based on the historical relationship between the ISM Manufacturing Index and year-over-year returns on the S&P 500 Index, the S&P 500 Index should decline 17% to around 3,500!

BoE: Roasting in Persistent Inflation

By Phil Rush

The BoE held its policy rate at 5.25%, in line with the consensus, with most members still sounding hawkish and warning of a possible rise yet not changing their votes.
Inflation persistence was deemed not to have changed despite the minutes noting an assumption that explicitly raised it and a substantial rise in the inflation forecast.
A failure to hike encourages excessive wage settlements, which are rebounding. Second-round effects may not push policy up but should keep it there even longer.

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Nov 02

Daily Brief Macro: China Economics: A Smaller and more

In today’s briefing:

China Economics: A Smaller, Smarter Belt and Road
Great Game – The 3 Biggest Geopolitical Risks for Markets Right Now
Fed Watch: Why Should the Fed Abandon the Planned Year-End Hike?
5 Things We Watch – BOJ, JPY, Treasury, Equities & Portfolio
Singapore Politics: Leadership Succession Is Nearing, Expect Little Policy Change
FX Watch – Exploring FX Fundamentals
Liquidity & Treasury Watch: The Ramifications of the Quarterly Refunding Report
CX Daily: The Opportunities and Roadblocks Facing China’s AI Models
Spot Bitcoin ETF – A Reasonable Approach to Impact
Fed Snap (November 1 Meeting): Current & Future Takeaways

China Economics: A Smaller, Smarter Belt and Road

As Beijing heralds the tenth anniversary of its Belt and Road Initiative, we foresee that it will reorient the initiative in response to the new domestic and geopolitical environment.
The Initiative has been a remarkable venture in economic diplomacy, buying China considerable leverage while delivering concrete benefits for recipient countries. There have, however, been setbacks.
Despite the difficulties, Beijing is likely to maintain support for the Initiative. Shifts in project size and target sectors may lead to a smaller, but smarter, Belt and Road.

Great Game – The 3 Biggest Geopolitical Risks for Markets Right Now

By Mikkel Rosenvold

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Great Game.
We give you our take on the hottest geopolitical topics of relevance to your portfolio.
This week, we cover the 3 biggest geopolitical risks for markets right now and what to look our for.

Fed Watch: Why Should the Fed Abandon the Planned Year-End Hike?

Welcome to our short and sweet Fed preview.
No one expects policy action from the Fed this week, but Powell could decide to reiterate that the dot plot remains intact given the most recent information received.
We doubt that Powell will bring about a strong guidance for a December hike, but unless the wheels come off, it’s very likely that they will be tempted to deliver that hike come December.

5 Things We Watch – BOJ, JPY, Treasury, Equities & Portfolio

By Ulrik Simmelholt

Global macro never sleeps, and this week is no exception with ongoing turmoil at the BOJ amidst their decision to change the YCC policy.
As always, we have collected 5 of the things we find to be the most important to watch in the current landscape.
YCC flexibility from the BOJ and more JPY weakness to come?

Singapore Politics: Leadership Succession Is Nearing, Expect Little Policy Change

Incumbent Singapore prime minister Lee is likely aiming for a formal handover to deputy premier Wong in early 2024. This will be a crucial political transition for the city-state.
The just-released Forward Singapore report implies that policy thinking will remain anchored to traditional ideological moorings. This leaves unanswered questions about social mobility, cost pressures, the housing market, and immigration.
Lee would like to end his term with an agreement with neighbouring Malaysia on strengthening economic ties, which could be transformational for both countries.

FX Watch – Exploring FX Fundamentals

Hello everyone, and welcome to a shorter piece on where to find fundamental value in the current FX environment.
We’ll take a trip back to the theory books and use some of the good old correlations and fundamental value metrics to give some insights on the best FX bets now that the tightening cycle is likely soon coming to an end.
Read along, as we run through the most important pairs below.

Liquidity & Treasury Watch: The Ramifications of the Quarterly Refunding Report

The quarterly refunding report from the US Treasury was far from the issuance-bazooka that some had expected.
There was no move in the target for the Treasury General Account either as we had expected, but it is not a reason to celebrate for bond bulls anyway.
Let’s have a look at the details and the consequences for USD liquidity.

CX Daily: The Opportunities and Roadblocks Facing China’s AI Models

AI / In Depth: The opportunities and roadblocks facing China’s AI models
Li Keqiang /: Li Keqiang’s remains to be cremated in Beijing on Thursday
China-U.S. /: California Governor Newsom visit boosts U.S.-China relations, climate collaboration

Spot Bitcoin ETF – A Reasonable Approach to Impact

From a risk diversification perspective, a spot Bitcoin ETF investing in Bitcoin outside the current system is more appealing than a derivatives Bitcoin ETF.
Using assets under management data of multi-asset, real assets, and gold ETFs, we estimate the potential AUM of spot Bitcoin ETFs somewhere between USD 50-150 billion.
Assuming that the share of equity and bond ETFs of total assets investments is representative of spot Bitcoin ETFs, you are looking at a Bitcoin price between USD 41,000-113,000.

Fed Snap (November 1 Meeting): Current & Future Takeaways

By Thomas Lam

With an unchanged meeting outcome priced-in, the focus was exclusively on the accompanying statement and presser
The post-meeting statement and Powell’s presser, while conditional, left the option to hike on the table
The latest market expectations and my rule-based estimates offer clues on the likely path of Fed policy

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Nov 01

Daily Brief Macro: BTC Bull Run Preempts Other Digital Assets and more

In today’s briefing:

BTC Bull Run Preempts Other Digital Assets
CX Daily: China’s Family-Run Businesses Face Succession Issues
EA: Doves Near Inflation’s Trough

BTC Bull Run Preempts Other Digital Assets

By Pranay Yadav

Bitcoin price has increased 20% over the past week anticipating the imminent approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF.
Bitcoin has outperformed other digital assets over the past year. Dominance has reached a two-year high.
BTC-ETH ratio is expected to continue rising after a near-term pullback due to ETF approval and relative safety providing strong tailwinds to BTC.

CX Daily: China’s Family-Run Businesses Face Succession Issues