Macro

• We are seeing warnings that the market is due for a pullback and correction.
• We pointed out last week that election year seasonality tends to see weakness in September and October, and the current market structure confirms that view.
• While we don’t know what the trigger for a correction might be, investors should be prepared for a period of short-term weakness and a possible buying opportunity in October.

• US monetary policy conduct remains data dependent following Fed Chairman Powell’s dovish pivot. The US dollar has weakened, but the economic growth outlook for 2025 should increasingly drive currency movements.
• Dollar weakness could force foreign investors to liquidate positions in US financial markets. High hedging costs have raised the spectre of significantly larger losses for foreign investors. 
• European private investors have become important marginal buyers of US Treasury securities since early 2023. Higher volatility Treasury yields could occur if foreign hedge funds exit without new marginal buyers.

• The U.S. stock market appears to be overvalued by a number of metrics, but deep value stocks in the U.S. are still cheap.
• Our list of LBO candidates, which tend to have strong cash positions, strong balance sheets and cash flows, represents a pocket of deep value.
• The retreat in junk bond yields has made these stocks even more attractive as investments.

• Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) reported a revenue/profit number of 8%/15%, with profits 8% lower than our expectations because of higher depreciation. 
• The company guided a mid-point iron ore shipment of 195 million tons (Vs. 192 in FY24) and a capex of 3.2 bn USD in metals/500 mn USD in Green Energy.
• Trading at 6.7x PE with a 10% dividend yield (trailing) with iron ore prices averaging 118 USD in FY24, the focus shifts to a scenario analysis for FY25. 

• China’s manufacturing activity sank to a six-month low in August as factory owners struggled for orders, pressuring policymakers to press on with plans to direct more stimulus to households.
• The purchasing managers’ index slipped to 49.1 from 49.4 in July, its sixth straight decline and fourth month below the neutral mark of 50, missing the median forecast of 49.5.
• After a dismal second quarter, China lost momentum further in July, prompting policymakers to signal they were ready to deviate from pouring funds into infrastructure, instead targeting stimulus at households.

• We provide country risk reviews for Asia countries including China, Taiwan, Cambodia, Lao, Mongolia, and Myanmar.
• Cambodia’s, China’s, Lao’s, and Mongolia’s overall risk is medium high.
• Taiwan’s risk is medium low and Myanmar’s risk is high.

• The carry trade involves borrowing in lower yielding currencies like the yen and investing in higher yielding assets
• The recent unwind of the carry trade caused temporary market stress, but quickly settled down
• The actors involved in the carry trade range from speculators to institutions, making it a diverse ecosystem with varying motivations and impacts

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Japan’s core CPI rose 2.7% YoY, coming in higher than 2.6% in June. However, its core core CPI slowed down, rising by 1.9% compared to 2.2% in June.
• In July, BoJ’s core CPI came in below 2%. Yet the central bank maintains its hawkish stance given the rising wages and rebound in consumer spending.
• With the US Fed signalling a readiness to lower rates and the BoJ maintaining its hawkish stance, the yen is poised to strengthen.

• Hang Seng rose by 1.58%, with most increase on Friday, while S&P500 treaded down by 0.19%
• We believe Hang Seng is in swing market from 16000 to 18000, so as it closes near 18000, we have closed our long position and shift to short call position.
• S&P is more difficult to track as the market is volatile before the anticipated September rate cut.

• Banco de México (Banxico) presented its Quarterly Report yesterday, in which it reinforces the idea that the rate cut on August 8th was justified by the current economic slowdown and the expectation that the price increases experienced by agricultural products during June and July will be reversed.
• In this context, the Central Bank lowered its growth forecast from 2.4% to 1.5% for this year and from 1.5% to 1.2% for 2025.
• This, along with the expected decrease in headline inflation to 4.4% during the fourth quarter of the year and the statements from the Board of Governors on the need to adjust the restrictive stance, supports our belief that Banxico plans to cut its reference rate in November and December.

• Headline EA inflation reassuringly matched consensus expectations by slowing 39bps to 2.2% in Aug-24 on energy price falls, with relatively small and neutral national surprises.
• A rebound in services inflation offset goods price weakness again to keep the core at 2.84%. Resilience here isn’t worrying enough to prevent further interest rate cuts.
• Broader stability in the forecast seems more relevant to the ECB, who should cut again while welcoming the reversal of the upward revisions after July’s upside surprise.

• China companies may start to repatriate F/X deposits held offshore as the CNY gains start to pick up. 
• The sudden unwind of the JPY carry trade reversed the weakening pressure of the CNY against its daily fixing.
• Forward markets are showing a more rapid strengthening of the CNY than analysts estimates.

• Coral sand / In Depth: Ambiguous reef protection laws leave China’s coral sand traders high and dry
• Macao /: Macao’s former top judge announces leadership candidacy
• Investment banks /: Former Haitong executive in crime probe arrested after fleeing to Laos

• The week ended quietly with few notable data releases, which conformed to expectations. Market pricing consolidated recent gains, breaking some bullish trends.
• The upcoming week begins with US Labor Day and ends with the release of payrolls, potentially dismissing hopes for a 50bp rate cut.
• There is an expectation of a third consecutive 25bp cut from the Bank of Canada, with policy announcements also expected in Chile and Malaysia.

• Fed likely ease by more than the ECB and BOE by June 2025, given pro-activeness from the Fed and also big gap in the current policy rates. 
• We see 175bps of cuts by end June 2025.  ECB hawks however are unlikely to reach a consensus on the 21 person governing council from delivering consistent quarterly 25bps rate cuts.
• Finally, we see the view on the BOE MPC shifting, as disinflation proves to be greater than the BOE consensus.  

• As economic growth of China move to sub-5% level (a figure which may have been manipulated upward), the living standard of its lower-middle and lower class are hopeless to improve.
• Standing at USD12970 in 2023, the capita real GDP grows much slower than previous decade.
• This is the middle income trap which is experienced by other middle-income Asian countries as well, like Philippines, Thailand, and Malaysia.

• China consumption patterns are slowing and becoming more volatile at a sub sector level. There is also less certainty over new employment and wage growth.
• China’s consumption is vital to growth when production is transitioning from old economy dependency on residential investment, steel, cement and other industries. 
• We forecast GDP to slow in H2 and be 4.0% in 2025

• For the week ending 23/Aug, US crude inventories fell by 846k barrels, while analysts expected a 2.7 mb drawdown. Gasoline stocks dropped more than expected, while distillate inventories unexpectedly rose.
• US natural gas inventories rise 35 bcf for the week ending 23/Aug, exceeding analyst expectations of a 33 bcf buildup. Inventories are 12.1% above the 5-year seasonal average
• Exxon expects global crude oil demand to remain around 100m bpd through 2050. Brokerages lowered target prices on Occidental and Halliburton.

• China’s exports fired on all cylinders during the spring, but we are now starting to see signs of fading inventories in the US (and to some extent, Europe) again.
• We believe the front-loading of imports, with rising freight rates being a symptom of this, propelled the Chinese economy ahead of the feared tariffs implemented by the Biden administration and potentially increased under a Trump presidency.
• We know that Chinese exporters have front-loaded exports of cars and other goods ahead of the tariff deadlines in both the US and Europe, and we are now seeing freight rates moderating alongside some concerning nowcasts out of China.

• Vietnam has achieved a significant milestone, with over one-third of Asia Ex-Japan funds now invested in the country for the first time in our holdings history.
• Average fund weights hit a new high of 1.01% last month, as an additional 5.1% of funds opened exposure in 2024.
• Notable fund-level activity in 2024 includes new positions from JP Morgan and Fidelity, with the most optimistic investors assigning over a 10% weight to Vietnam.

• Exposure to the UK Banking sector is nearing all-time highs as funds rotate back into the sector following the 2020 sell-off
• Broad rotation into various stocks within the sector. HSBC is experiencing a robust recovery in ownership, and Natwest has reached record levels of UK fund ownership.
• Value managers are the most exposed to UK Banks, while Agg’ Growth funds lag behind their style peers.

• Energized Democrats have narrowed the polling gap, with The Economist average showing Harris likely to win 277 Electoral College votes, although RCP’s average shows Trump narrowly ahead in swing states.
• This is no longer 1968 Redux, despite many similarities. RFK Jr’s withdrawal means there’s no George Wallace to erode Democratic votes. Centrist Harris is positioning well to capture swing voters. 
• Both candidates would further increase public debt, but Harris has more credible funding plans. The debates will still be crucial, but a Harris win would be marginally better for markets. 

• F&B / Charts of the Day: Beijingers spurn eating out amid sluggish economy
• Corruption /: Death penalty upheld for former official in China’s largest corruption case
• Debt /: Inner Mongolia region is struggling to fund basic services as debt crisis looms

• Uptick in Real Estate positioning driven by a shift towards Indian Real Estate stocks, which has outweighed reductions in exposure to China & HK Real Estate
• Three names stand out: Phoenix Mills, Macrotech Developers, and DLF Limited, all of which have seen ownership rise to record levels.
• New positions in Indian Real Estate by Allianz and JKC have been offset by closures in Chinese Real Estate by LO Funds and SEB, among others.

• Take aways: More and more Ifo data suggests that Germany is heading into a recession. Fears of a wage-price spiral in Germany are overstated by German hawks.
• Service price expectations look to settle above pre pandemic trends Remember to look at hard data to get the full picture. Following the full release of the monthly Ifo figures, let’s examine the growth and inflation prospects in Germany as we head into autumn.
• Increasingly, Ifo data hints that a recession may be imminent in Germany, with both growth and inflation expected to slow.

• From our last piece in early Aug 2024, Japanese Yen, we believe Yen will recover to 110 level as US Treasury Yields move lower.
• Compared to our last analysis, further JPY interest rate hike is plausible, or at least on the table
• Japan 10 Year Government Bond Interest Rate is at 0.92%, compared to 0.90% the previous market day and 0.65% last year. This is lower than the long term average of 2.08%.

• Used cars / In Depth: China’s used-car dealers face a bumpy ride as price wars intensify
• Housing /: China pilots government-funded housing renovation system in 22 cities
• Banks /: Standard Chartered names new China CEO

• Bonds / Cover Story: Chinese brokerages’ dual roles in bond market sparks concern for conflicts of interest that raises systemic risk 
• Internet /: New digital ID system is optional, not mandatory, ministry researcher says
• Air crash /: Two children among five Chinese nationals killed in Thai plane crash

• Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.
• Markets have found their way back to pre-NFP levels as the storm seems to have calmed in equity markets.
• Meanwhile, fixed income markets are focused on four rate cuts, despite many taking the NFP revisions last week too seriously, likely underestimating the impact of immigration on payroll data.

• Happy Monday from Europe.
• Powell is cutting, Ueda is hiking and USDJPY is heading lower.
• It sounds like a tune we have heard before, and while we are NOT on imminent recession watch, we need to be aware of the potential slippery slope once the revised cat is let out of the bag.

• US housing starts fell 6.8% MoM and 16% YoY in July, falling to their lowest level since 2020. Single-family starts reached a 16-month low.
• Overall housing inventory has surged to its highest level since 2020, reaching 1.3 million. New housing inventory surged to levels last seen in 2008. 
• Despite lower mortgage rates, high home prices are deterring buyers, stagnating housing sales, and dampening homebuilder sentiment. 

• The Chinese rebound story is losing momentum fast, which has important implications for Western economies and assets, while the impact from freight rates on inflation might not be as large as previously feared.
• Take aways Beta from freight rates to goods inflation is lower than usual due to inventory building in the USChinese retail and IP down some 10% from the pre-pandemic trend China’s export of disinflation will force policy makers in the West to introduce tariffs and subsidies Greetings from a sunny Copenhagen.
• This week we’ll discuss freight rates and what inventory data tells us to expect going forward and then we’ll dive into some more data points on the weak Chinese economic outlook.

• Kamala Harris is working hard to maintain party unity, leading to limited information about her economic policies.
• Investors are expressing concerns over the economic policies she has so far revealed.
• The tight race to the election and issues related to Trump are expected to cause more market volatility in the future.

• In addition to the stress of Harris on policies that help the poor, on the Trump side, we believe the book of secrets is in focus. 
• The book of secrets is an intelligence briefing by the CIA for every President since JFK to present. Incoming President will get to read the book for limited time.
• There every chance that Trump had read the book in his last presidency and he wants to revisit as another term.

• Iron ore prices rebounded strongly last week and continued rising this week, reversing losses from the previous week’s 9% decline
• Chinese portside inventories of iron ore fell by 2.48 million tons in August, signaling strong demand despite slower drawdowns in the final weeks
• SGX Iron Ore options saw a 20.7% decline in volume last week, with a sharp increase in the put/call ratio from 1.56 to 2.35, indicating increased bearish sentiment

• It’s been a busy week in Chicago.
• I am taking over from Mikkel Rosenvold in today’s edition of the Great Game, to give you a rundown of the policy ramifications of a star-studded DNC 2024.
• A week ago, Vice President Kamala Harris provided a brief glimpse of her economic program, when she spoke at a campaign event in Raleigh, North Carolina.

• US oil and gas rig count fell by one to 585 for the week ending 23/Aug, marking a decline in rig count for the second straight week.
• US oil rig count was unchanged at 483, after falling by two the week prior. Gas rigs fell by one to 97, after rising by one the previous week.
• For the week ending 16/Aug, US crude oil production rose back to its record high of 13.4m bpd, after slipping down to 13.3m bpd the week prior.  

• Although exports continue to recover, their pace has slowed due to a decline in oil exports.
• On the other hand, imports grew by 3.7% year-on-year (YoY).
• As a result, the trade balance recorded a deficit of USD 5.6 billion from January to July.

• India’s rapid economic growth, coupled with China’s recent economic challenges, has fueled discussions about whether India can become the next global economic power, as China has done for decades.
• China and India, Asia’s two largest economies, have taken different economic paths in recent years.
• Analysts at UBS Global Research pointed out: “China’s post-epidemic economic recovery is weak, while India’s performance is strong.”

• Happy Sunday from Denmark!I’ve had a few days to digest Powell’s speech from Friday, and my takeaway is unequivocally dovish.
• Powell and the committee have signaled that they will not tolerate further cooling of the U.S. labor market without responding.
• This marks a full-blown shift in priorities, with inflation numbers now taking a backseat to labor market data going forward.

• Hedge Funds Pushing into Commodities Markets Big trading houses like Glencore, Trafigura, Mercuria or Vitol are benefiting since years now from the increasing fluctuations on the commodities markets.
• This trend increased, especially since crude oil went negative when the Covid pandemic started and was followed by further volatility since the macro environment became even more fragile with the war in Ukraine and now the conflicts in the Middle East.
• According to Ney York based consulting firm Oliver Wyman, the gross margin of trading houses amounted to 105 billion dollars in 2023.

• The biggest shift in FX markets is a lower range of interest rates in the US, signaling a regime shift towards Fed rate cuts.
• Dollar strength is diminishing due to lower rates and softer US inflation, impacting carry trades and high yield currencies.
• Euro-Dollar may benefit from lower yields, but its upside potential is uncertain amidst ongoing market volatility and economic uncertainty.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Release of key economic data from Europe, Asia, and the US, with a focus on inflation, unemployment, and consumer sentiment
• Market theme of “Goldilocks” prevails with lower US yields, rising equities, and a softer dollar
• Outlook for the US economy includes expectations of a stable core PCE inflation rate and positive consumer sentiment towards the economy

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• A climb in the unemployment rate can be associated with recessions, especially when dominated by a negative change in employment
• But the recent rise in the unemployment rate through July does not seem to be consistent with the characteristics of prior recessions on balance
• Nevertheless, further increases in the unemployment rate need not be of the same breed   

• The past week saw insights on Bank Rakyat Indonesia, Prodia (PRDA IJ), BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ), Bumrungrad Hospital (BH TB), and Shakey’s Pizza (PIZZA PM).
• There were also macro insights on Indonesia and Thailand together with an additional insight on 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings (99SPD MK) ahead of its IPO.
• The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.

• South Korean Financials are experiencing a significant increase in fund ownership. Average fund weights are approaching record highs at 1.94%, with a record 52% positioned overweight.
• At the fund level, a strong buy-side bias is evident, with 37 funds opening positions compared to just 3 closures over the last 6-months.
• Strong ownership momentum in KB Financial, DB Insurance, Shinhan Financial, and SK Square have contributed to the sector-wide bullishness.

• Gold has reached another all-time high at 2500, will history repeat itself? Is this another generational buying opportunity or a bull trap fakeout?
• We conclude that the upside breakout in gold prices has more room to run, though the market is extended and could pull back at any time.
• A long-term point and figure analysis of monthly prices using a 5% box and 3-box reversal shows a measured objective of 4406.

• Financial markets are discounting more aggressive Fed easing in 2024 than is currently being embraced by forward guidance, suggesting recession fears have not been totally extinguished.
• Courtesy of the Great Moderation, monetary policy gradualism remains intact, while markets are discounting a 50 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate after the presidential election.
• The outcome of the presidential election could impact Fed policy in 2025, as both contenders are embracing economic policies that will structurally boost inflation in varying degrees.

• We can think of two scenarios for the short-term path of stock prices. The market could continue to rise, supported by positive momentum and a neutral sentiment backdrop.
• On the other hand, overbought readings and a lack of leadership could resolve in the typical pattern of seasonal weakness.
• We are waiting for greater clarity as to how market internals develop in the coming days. 

• We will look into the “well-known “correlation among the Aussie and well-known benchmarks to give  a closer look towards factors that have been affecting the movement of the Australian Dollar.
• We will look into the performance of the Aussie relative to the Kiwi. The Aussie and Kiwi are viewed to be closely correlated given their geographic proximity and trade partnerships.
• They are also being categorized as commodity currencies, with their dependence in commodity export.

• A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
• The Nasdaq, China and the JPY walk into a bar.
• The world’s biggest uranium miner cuts its 2025 production guidance

• Fed Powell clearly signaled a Sep 18 FOMC rate cut, but his analysis on the economy is softer than harder landing.
• Though the option of 50bps was not ruled out, the comments from Powell and other Fed officials are more consistent with 25bps than 50bps. 
• Nevertheless, the Fed is now more focused on the labor market, which suggests we think will be improving even with mere 25bps cut this year.

• What a July we’ve had.
• The G3 central banks have now received plenty of labor market data that justifies cutting rates fairly aggressively.
• In our opinion, this is a tricky trend to resist, even if market pricing does admittedly seem aggressive.

• The U.S. released revised non-farm payroll figures, with significant job cuts expected, but the fiscal deficit continues to grow, raising concerns about economic stability.
• Frequent data revisions and premature releases, such as those in Japan and India, highlight the need for more accurate and delayed economic data reporting.
• Political unrest in Indonesia as the government attempts to overturn a court ruling to allow President Jokowi’s son to run for governorship, reflecting a trend towards autocracy in the region.

• Hang Seng barely moves this week, as we predicted. Hang Seng is likely to go sideway from 16000 to 18000 levels for the rest of the years.
• S&P500 likely wise moves little, up by 0.73% for the week. US equity market will likely has no clear direction before the Sep rate cut.
• Gold retrieves little by less than 0.5% against a half year uprising trend that has accumulated to 23.6% up from half year ago.

• Resilient activity data does not align with tight policy rates, suggesting deep cuts may not be necessary. Despite the resilience and loosening conditions enjoyed by equities, they should not occur simultaneously. The proximity of equities and GBP to their peaks creates an unattractive asymmetry.
• Next week, stretched market pricing may overshadow other factors due to a sparse data calendar and widespread late summer holidays.
• The main event to look out for is the Flash EA inflation for August, with forecasts indicating a potential renewed slowdown in headline figures, aligning closely with the consensus.