Macro

• Thailand likely to receive less rains in the coming one-month period  
• Indonesia, Vietnam, Cambodia likely to have above normal rains  
• WMO predicts 60% chances of La Nina developing

• Before we get to Trump, we need to quickly discuss OPEC and their recent cut in demand forecasts.
• This reduction hints at an unwillingness to increase production in the near future.
• Saudi Arabia is key here, as it holds the largest excess capacity, and a production hike from them could swing the market and send prices below $50 USD in the blink of an eye.

• US inflation’s unsurprising October print should reassure market expectations for a December rate cut after pricing became overextended by post-election exuberance.
• Although the seasonally adjusted rates annualised above the target again, unadjusted rates are trending at dovishly subdued levels, with no headline exceptions since April.
• These numbers are arguably old news but don’t discourage a December cut. The shocks from Trump policies won’t hit until 2025 and pre-empting them seems too presumptive.

• We’re at a critical juncture in sovereign bond markets, with liquidity running razor-thin and the game changing fast.
• German Bunds, traditionally rock-solid, are now trading through swaps and nearing zero on cross-currency swaps (ESTRON/SOFR) – a first in modern market history.
• The takeaway? Major central banks, especially the ECB, are pressing too hard on QT, and the markets are about to hit back hard if they don’t ease up soon.

• Discussion on US elections and Fed policy implications
• Impact of policy uncertainty on calendar spreads and wild card options
• Investor positioning and its influence on various bond contracts

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Malaysia’s budget saw the government continue to make minor tweaks to tax and spending, even as the data show that fiscal consolidation is slowing down. 
• The proposed tax-raising measures are too narrowly targeted, limiting their scope to expanding the tax base and raising substantial revenues. 
• Without more decisive action, the government risks missing its deficit and debt targets, which it set under the Medium-Term Fiscal Framework. 

• Private companies ex property developers have seen a small pay down of debt, but the largest remaining portion of non-financial debt ex LGFV is central and local SOE’s. 
• They have low profitability and have shown few signs of increased leverage.  This leaves the onus on fiscal policy.  
• Reports suggests that the LGFV debt swap for local and central government bonds could be Yuan6trn through end 2027, but what is happening to other non-property developer corporate debt?

• SGX IO Futures fell for the second consecutive week, closing USD 4.15/ton lower at USD 101.70/ton on 18/Oct, with a trading range of USD 9.75/ton.
• Short-Term moving averages signaled a bearish reversal, with a downward 9-day moving average and failure to break above key pivot points.
• Heavy selling pressure and expanded China stimulus measures disappointed market expectations, signaling continued bearish trends with a potential test of USD 97.5/ton support.

• Fenix Resources (FEX AU) is a small-cap iron ore miner/logistics provider with massive upside based on an increasing sales profile from 1.3 to 4 million tons over FY25/26. 
• The company is also positioning itself as a logistics provider with the potential to transport 10 million tons of material through the Geraldton Port with its infrastructure in place. 
• Trading at 5.4x FY25e PE with a 1.8 EV-EBITDA, >38% of the market cap in cash, this is a stock worth exploring.

• As agricultural prices have completed their correction, we do not expect more downward surprises in inflation.
• Meanwhile, we estimate energy prices to rise this fortnight because of the withdrawal of summer electricity subsidies.
• As a result, we estimate headline inflation at 0.41% bw, consistent with its historical average.

• Morning from Copenhagen, I spent my Sunday evening in the company of Interpol (the band, not the police, doh!), allowing myself a day off for once after the big announcements we made last week.
• As a result, Steno Signals was released this Monday morning instead.
• The recent repricing of EUR rates versus peers is extremely interesting, as the ECB is suddenly considered the only G3 central bank with a feasible path to 50bp cuts.

• Stimulus / Cover Story: China tries new tack to spur economic growth through stimulus effort

• High-speed railway /: The view from Indonesia’s China-built high-speed railway, one year on

• Export /Caixin explains: China’s new export controls and how they will work

• Morena’s political dominance has strengthened with Claudia Sheinbaum’s election and judicial reforms, allowing them to shape the Supreme Court.
• This boosts their ability to push controversial policies, like state control of Mexico’s energy sector.
• However, economic slowdown and potential U.S. political shifts, such as a Trump victory, could dampen investor confidence and derail nearshoring momentum by 2025.

• Happy Monday from Copenhagen.
• Our nowcasts of the US economy have proven useful in predicting the direction of incoming macro releases over the past couple of months, accurately capturing both the downtrend in July and the subsequent strength observed throughout September and October relative to expectations.
• The US economy is performing much better than feared at the moment, resulting in stronger equities, higher rates, and a stronger USD.

• In the Mexican housing sector, total sales will continue with their positive trend; however, a mix oriented to the affordable segment and lower land sales will result in margin contractions.
• The sector’s total sales will advance 8%, supported by higher volume sales.
• In contrast, the sector’s EBITDA is expected to gain 3%, mainly explained by a sales mix oriented to houses with lower prices.

• During the period under consideration, i.e. August 28th, 2024 to September 27th, 2024, the EUR/JPY exchange rate fluctuated between 155.97 and 162.63.
• The MA-10 line was moving above the MA-20 line for the first week, and then it crossed below the MA-20, maintaining a steady downward movement until it crossed over it again on September 26th MA-20 line retained an immovable declining trend throughout the entire period.
• Based on Graph 2, the CCI (red line) was moving in a descending trend at the beginning of the period under consideration but after September 6th the movement changed to the opposite direction, reaching the price of 100 and ending up slightly above the 50 level.

• Hello everyone, and welcome back to our positioning update.
• The big theme in markets currently is how markets are responding, positioning-wise, to the dwindling momentum in Chinese equities, and which geographies that money is being moved to now that the China story is slowly but surely fading.
• Today’s briefing on the outlook for the property market was, once again, a disappointment, and it seems like China is boosting supply to solve a demand problem, likely because they are focusing more on their annual 5% GDP growth target than on solving the structural issues at hand.

• Misconception that China’s stimulus was a panic move due to economic crisis
• Obsession over the size of the stimulus package without considering policy approach
• China aimed to boost confidence and avoid doom loop through stimulus measures, including support for the stock market

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• The USD has regained ground alongside USD rates since the 50bp from the Fed in September, which reignited both growth- and inflation expectations simultaneously.
  
• The conundrum around Fredi9999 pushing Polymarket towards making Trump a large election leader in betting markets is likely partially (but obviously not fully) linked to this surge of the USD and USD inflation expectations as well, and we note that bond yields and inflation expectations have disconnected from traded commodity markets over the past 2-3 weeks accordingly. 
• The stronger USD has wreaked havoc with cross-market positioning in many ways, with USD still being underweight across our positioning gauges, but we doubt that the inflation story has got legs here unless it is a clean sweep for The Donald in early November, given the current price action in inflation-linked markets.

• The US elections, excluding the Senate, are currently very close.
• There are four potential outcomes, each with a probability of 20% or higher.
• The scenarios suggest that a Trump administration would have a greater ability to implement its agenda than a Harris administration.

• The past week saw insights on Siloam International Hospitals (SILO IJ), Global Digital Niaga (BELI IJ), Delfi Ltd (DELFI SP), Bangkok Bank (BBL TB), and Dyna Mac Holdings (DMHL SP) 
• There were also macro insights on Indonesia and Thailand and further insights on Sai Gon Cargo Service (SCS VN), Top Glove Corp (TOPG MK), and Airports of Thailand (AOT TB).
• The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom, from across Southeast Asia.

• RBI’s failure to cut the policy rate at its last two policy meetings is a policy error. Although vegetables caused a headline-inflation spurt, core inflation moderated to 2.7%YoY in Sep’24. 
• High real interest rates have caused real GDP to decelerate to 6.7%YoY in Apr-Jun’24, and industrial output to decline in Aug’24. The policy error is hurting the economy. 
• Cleverer stance would be to take every opportunity to cut rates when headline inflation is at/below target. When vegetable prices hold policy hostage, it hits investor confidence. (Evidence: FX Reserves).  

• Inventory lowest since February 2024
• Arbitrage widens for African and Indonesian rubber
• Expansion in imports & exports in August

• China’s Corn Under Extreme Weather Threat China’s corn production is currently under pressure due to extreme weather events in the country.
• Still, as it seems this might not be enough to even lift prices up a little bit. Local prices have ticked higher since the end of September, but they’re still close to four-year lows.
• Stockpiles of corn are plentiful, and demand is currently sluggish as the second-largest economy of the world battles its own economy demons at the moment.

• WTI futures dropped 9.1% for the week ending 18/Oct, driven by easing Middle East tensions and mounting concerns over China’s slowing economy.
• WTI options Put/Call volume ratio remained flat at 0.52 compared to last week (11/Oct), as put volume dropped by 22.6% WoW and call volume fell by 21.3%.
• WTI OI PCR fell to 0.74 (18/Oct) from 0.76 last week. Call OI fell by 13.2% WoW, while put OI dropped by 15.4%.

• US natural gas prices dropped 14.2% for the week ending 18/Oct, marking a third consecutive weekly decline due to milder winter forecasts and the lingering effects of Hurricane Milton.
• Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio shot up to 1.54 (18/Oct) from 0.69 (11/Oct) the previous week as put volumes increased by 81.3% WoW, while call volumes fell by 18.4%.
• Put OI rose for contracts expiring in November, April, and May, while call OI increased for December, January, February, and March expiries.

• U.S. household equity allocations are becoming extended relative to their own history, which warns of a challenging long-term return outlook.
• Demographically adjusted allocations are less extended and similar episodes have resolved in either minor pullbacks or sideways consolidations.
• Equity valuations are stretched compared to bonds and the long-term outlook will depend on the future advances in productivity.

• The global economic outlook for 2025 is mixed. Central bank policy rates will be lowered gradually and settle at an underlying level higher than what prevailed before the COVID-19 pandemic.
• While US markets are discounting a soft landing, financing conditions for corporations next year will be impacted by the magnitude of the slowdown and the prospective conduct of fiscal policy.
• Conditions in the Eurozone are expected to improve next year, while the outlook for refinancing activity in the Asia Pacific remains nuanced, courtesy of differing regional central bank policy outlooks.

• China’s trade is growing strongly and has become less dependent on the US.  The EU and Mexico now exceed China’s monthly exports to the US.
• Taiwan as a flashpoint between the US and China will decline in coming years as each country ramps up its semiconductor manufacturing capabilities.
• Tariffs and the Yuan will be important negotiating points between the US and China, but the good news is they will be talking.

• The tactical bullish set-up that we outlined last week has triggered a buy signal.
• Diverse leadership by financial, industrial and technology stocks points to further gains in stock prices.
• Investors should be aware of the key risk of earnings disappointment during Q3 earnings season, and signs of resurgent inflation that puts upward pressure on interest rates.

• After a brief spell of iron ore prices rising to 108 USD/ton, prices have retraced to 102 USD/ton (-3% WoW) but remain broadly in the 95-130 USD/ton band.
• Investors were disappointed with China’s announced stimulus measures, citing their vagueness and lack of a specific timetable, resulting in the positive sentiment waning over the last two weeks.
• We update investors on Vale’s (VALE US) recent proposal to the government to settle the Mariana Dam disaster.

• Copper prices were down slightly, WoW, by 0.3% YoY, as the effect of China’s stimulus plan announcements waned, with investors viewing them more skeptically.
• With 58% of the metal’s demand arising from China, we expect the short-term malaise to be felt unless China makes punchier fiscal stimulus announcements soon. 
• We believe high-quality equities like Southern Copper (SCCO US) and Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN) will continue to be resilient and prefer exposure to copper in those names.

• The coalition government will announce its first Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) in Parliament on October 30.
• It is anticipated to set government policy goals and priorities and forecast macroeconomic trajectory and the fiscal framework over the next three years.
• We continue to think the fiscal deficit in South Africa is projected to remain elevated contributing both to the GDP and inflation prospects, given rising debt service.

• OPEC cuts demand growth estimates for the third consecutive month, lowering its 2024 and 2025 forecasts by 4.9% and 5.7%, respectively, citing demand weakness in China.
• Total production of OPEC members obliged to implement supply cuts averaged 21.32m bpd in September, exceeding the target by 180k bpd.
• The EIA reduced its 2024 and 2025 oil price forecasts due to September’s sharp decline but expects prices to rise from current levels on declining oil inventories.

• As HK/China markets complete their retracements after the best rally in more than a decade, the exaggerated pessimism from the media and analysts returns.
• The government continues to roll out measures to relieve the pressure on the property market in what is a multi-year process with no quick fix.
• Even after a historic rally, the HSI still trades at a significant valuation discount which will narrow in the coming months.

• Requests for retraction in contracts by buyers 
• Oversupply of spot cargoes feeds pessimistic expectations

• For the week ending 11/Oct, US crude inventories decreased by 2.2m barrels, diverging from expectations of a 1.8m barrel build. Additionally, gasoline and distillate stockpiles also declined more than anticipated.
• US natural gas inventories rose 76 Bcf for the week ending 11/Oct, lower than analyst expectations of an 80 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 4.6% above the 5-year seasonal average.
• Halliburton, Schlumberger, and Occidental’s target prices were cut. Notably, analysts kept their Buy ratings on Reliance despite its net profit falling by 4.8% YoY.

• Q3 GDP and September figures were slightly better. With a speed up of government spending in Q4 , we change our 2024 GDP forecast to 4.8% from 4.6%. 
• However, despite a further Yuan1.5-2.0trn of fiscal stimulus to come, we still see 4.5% 2025 GDP.  
• Stimulus is not focused on the consumer, while the residential housing market has not bottomed in construction or sales terms.  

• The latest Global Innovation Index shows that Asian economies are not yet fully reaping the benefits of innovation-led growth. 
• Despite their strong performance in the overall rankings, Asian economies, including frontrunner Singapore, underperform in translating their considerable input investments into tangible outputs. 
• As the conventional growth drivers of trade, demographics, and physical capital start running out of steam, Asian economies need to catch up to the innovation frontier to promote future growth. 

• A consecutive ECB rate cut and the UK’s unexpected disinflation have led to an extension in dovish pricing, which appears stretched both in absolute terms and relative to the US. Despite this, Europe’s resilient labour markets continue to influence medium-term inflation.
• The Bank of Canada is predicted to implement a 50bp cut next week, following the Fed’s lead in the primary policy event.
• Flash PMIs, set to be released on Thursday, are considered the most significant data release, particularly due to the stark contrast between US highs and Euro area lows.

• HSI declined sharply in the beginning of the week and recoup half of the losses towards end-week.
• S&P500 rose by 1.15% and broke new record. Dow-jones also broke record high
• On the whole we hold the same portfolio throughout the week, loosing in the beginning and gaining back in the end of the week.

• The Central Bank of Chile reduced the policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%, in line with market expectations, reflecting a cautious approach to inflation management amid global volatility.
• External factors, including the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts and China’s stimulus measures, have contributed to higher long-term interest rates and a stronger US dollar, exerting downward pressure on the Chilean peso.
• Future rate cuts are likely, but their pace will depend on domestic inflation trends, global economic developments, and the central bank’s assessment of financial stability risks.

• Welcome to our China Watch series, where we look at the Chinese case through the lens of Western investors.
• Tomorrow, we will have another briefing aimed at boosting the property market, which is one of those tricky conundrums to deal with.
• Housing starts have already dropped back 20 years, and the value of unsold homes and projects is sky-high.

• Representatives of all relevant major Ministries showed up and had their say
• As is now usual from these events some positives as well as some disappointment
• Further steps taken to put a floor under the property market

• Stock market dominated by big tech companies, increasing importance of tech companies in equity market
• S&P 500 becoming more like the Nasdaq due to tech dominance
• Tech companies moving towards project-based financing and increasing interest in credit market, with potential for substantial returns in opportunistic credit opportunities

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Healthcare sector continues to gain momentum in Hong Kong market during pullback with materials and energy sectors lagging.
• Value and Liquidity factors have outperformed since stimulus announcement in September.
• Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) , JD Health International (6618 HK) and Sands China (1928 HK) were rated as BUY as analysts turn toward China consumption plays as future winners.

• Observed significant economic activity at Tattersalls horse sales despite lower UK inflation, suggesting stable interest rates.
• Several Asian countries, excluding Indonesia, implemented interest rate cuts, showing varied economic responses.
• China’s gradual easing aligns with expectations, while Vietnam’s surprising GDP growth raises questions about statistical accuracy.

• BRICS can provide a political buffer but not economic, as BRICS are still searching for practical areas for cooperation.  
• However, Donald Trump universal tariffs threats could focus BRICS on more intra EM trade.
• BRI has already helped to redirect China exports to EM countries, despite the slowdown in new lending to BRI countries. 

• Euro area headline and services inflation were trimmed in the final prints for October, reinforcing the disinflationary imperative in the ECB’s decision to cut rates again.
• The news on underlying inflation was mixed between countries and measures. Things broadly remain close to target-consistent levels but need not stay like that.
• We remain concerned about potential over-extrapolation and focus on disinflationary data points, although that seems unlikely to change in time to block a December cut.

• Surprisingly steep disinflation and drops in the PMIs shocked expectations for the ECB’s October meeting, which were matched by the realised 25bp rate cut.
• The coherent story of disappointment magnified the strength of the signal enough for the ECB to act. Much more data will be available by the December decision.
• No commitments were made to act or not, but the hurdle is lower with a forecast to communicate the totality of the news. We expect a cut then before the pace slows.

• Short-term 20-day MA remained elevated through September to mid-October 2024  
• SIR20 traded at a discount to futures  
• Processors in Thailand and Indonesia faced more margin pressure due to high raw material costs  
• The forward curve shows October 2024 prices at their highest for the year

• Energy / Caixin Explains: The power grid’s solar and wind problem
• Korean Peninsula /Analysis: How tensions on the Korean Peninsula exploded with the loss of two symbolic links
• Payments /: UnionPay teams up with Vietnam partner to boost cross-border QR payments

• Consumption declines by .3% to 356,000 tons in Q1 FY 25
• ATMA says April-Sept 2024 production 37% lower year on year
• ATMA asks Rubber Board to expedite data publishing

• The fiscal briefings from China last weekend were exactly what we feared and have been warning about—a big nothing burger.
• China keeps applying supply-side measures to a demand-driven problem, which is unlikely to succeed.
• What China really needs is a forced increase in demand across the system, but instead, they’re focused on trying to incentivize demand for assets or reshuffle credit profiles.

• Surprisingly soft UK inflation data extended across the headline and conventional core metrics, partly because of substantial payback in airfares after August’s surge.
• Only a slight unwind in October and ambiguous historical precedents for November mean much of this downside persists. However, other underlying signals were resilient.
• The BoE can focus on this downside news and cut in November. Ultimately, signals for the underlying pressures in the cyclically tight UK economy should urge an early pause.

• Bank Indonesia kept the BI-Rate at 6.00%, aligning with market expectations, focusing on inflation control within the 2.5% ±1% target and maintaining Rupiah stability amid global uncertainties.
• The central bank’s cautious stance reflects concerns about geopolitical risks and global market volatility, while future rate decisions will hinge on inflation trends, exchange rate stability, and economic growth prospects.
• Ongoing policy measures aim to reinforce external stability with strategic currency interventions and supportive macroprudential policies to bolster domestic growth drivers.

• The Bank of Thailand’s unexpected 25bp rate cut to 2.25% signals a dovish shift to support debt servicing, contrary to the consensus of no change.
• Future policy will hinge on inflation developments, particularly the gradual rise towards the target range, plus sectoral economic growth disparities.
• Credit conditions, debt deleveraging, and global monetary trends will influence the central bank’s rate trajectory.

• After Meeting with U.S. Investors, the Federal Government Announces Investments Exceeding $20 Billion by 2025.
• On October 15, a meeting was held between the Mexican government and 240 senior executives from the United States and Mexico, aimed at strengthening investor confidence.
• The Secretary of Economy, Marcelo Ebrard, highlighted during this dialogue that the ongoing legal reforms are focused on strengthening the rule of law and encouraging investment.

• SOE / Cover Story: China Forestry’s fall under corruption cloud reveals weakness in state-owned system
• Stimulus /Exclusive: China may add 6 trillion yuan in treasury bonds to buttress economy
• Fugitive /: Fugitive Chinese tycoon arrested in Bali

• AI / In Depth: Chinese AI-app makers look overseas for their big break
• Corruption /: Prosecutors will seize fugitive former official’s assets in $400 million embezzlement case
• Payments /: UnionPay teams up with Vietnam partner to simplify QR payments across borders

• Active EM Funds delivered an average return of +6.85% in Q3, underperforming the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF by 0.83%, with 38.8% of funds beating the index.
• Morgan Stanley Developing Opportunity and Aikya Emerging Markets topped the performance charts for the quarter.
• Underweights in Alibaba Group Holding and Meituan, and overweights in SK Hynix and cash holdings hurt performance.

• The recent Chinese fiscal briefing was underwhelming, as expected.
• China continues to focus on supply-side measures, which remain ineffective in addressing the pressing need for increased demand.
• Instead of stimulating consumption across the economy, China is attempting to incentivize asset demand and reshuffle credit profiles—approaches unlikely to produce meaningful results.

• Details of the extra central government spending/scaled up local authority purchases of unsold complete homes for affordable housing should be seen late October/early November from the National People Congress.  
• We estimate Yuan1.5-2.0trn of extra spending, which leads us to increase the 2025 GDP forecast to 4.5% from 4.0% — fiscal impact on 2024 will likely be very small.
• The more active government policy stance, also reduces the risk of a harder landing (circa 3%) to 10-15% from 20-25% in 2025.  

• With US bonds oversold, we expect the Japanese Yen to  strengthen
• Supplementary Budget from the LDP as new cabinet’s approval rating drops
• The broad Japanese indices will struggle here as this plays out

• The US oil and gas rig count rose by one to 586 for the week ending 11/Oct, marking an increase after falling for three consecutive weeks.
• The US oil rig count increased by two to 481. Meanwhile, gas rigs decreased by one to 101, after gaining six rigs over the last two weeks.
• For the week ending 11/Oct, US energy producers added six rigs in Texas and one in Oklahoma but cut two each in Pennsylvania, Louisiana, and New Mexico.

• SGX IO Futures declined by $1.94/ton over the week, closing at $106.21/ton on October 11th, with prices ranging between $103.05 and $115/ton.
• DCE premium over SGX surged to 10% on 8/Oct as DCE reopened after Golden Week, but the spread narrowed to 4.8% by 11/Oct. SGX underperformed DCE early in the week.
• Weekly options volume surged 188%, dominated by puts with a 1.04 put/call ratio, concentrated on November expiries and key strikes at 100 and 105.

• US natural gas prices fell 7.8% for the week ending 11/Oct, marking a second straight weekly decline as Hurricane Milton reduced electricity demand, driving down Henry Hub prices.
• Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio fell to 0.69 (11/Oct) from 0.98 the previous week as put volumes fell by 27.3% WoW, while call volumes rose by 2.8%.
• Put OI increased for contracts expiring in November and April while call OI rose for expiries in December, January, February, and March.

• WTI futures rose by 1.6% for the week ending 11/Oct, as the simmering tensions in the Middle East outweighed persistent demand concerns.
• WTI options Put/Call volume ratio fell to 0.52 from 0.64 (04/Oct) as put volume dropped by 50.9% WoW while call volume fell by 39.8%.
• WTI OI PCR was unchanged at 0.76 compared to last week. Call OI rose by 5.7% WoW, while put OI grew by 5.8%.

• CTA Update Last week, the research division of UBS shared an update on the positioning of CTAs.
• Contrarian’ trades: bullish Energy, Cattle Feeder, Lme Lead and Lme Nickel, bearish Coffee, Cocoa, Platinum and Palladium
• Go with momentum’ trades: bullish Lme Tin, Copper, Gold and Lean Hogs, bearish Soybean, Soybean Meal, Wheat and Corn Hurricane Milton and Orange Juice Prices Orange juice futures rose as Hurricane Milton approached Florida throughout the week.

• UK unemployment dropped by another 16bps in August to 4.0%, sustaining a 0.2pp fall on last year. Short-term unemployment looks even tighter as demand trends resiliently.
• Resurgent employment and hours worked hawkishly drive the cyclical tightening while redundancies remain low and weekly vacancies trend slightly higher.
• Slowing wage growth provides an excuse for the BoE to cut again in November but not to accelerate easing nor extend it far. A policy reversal may be needed in 2025.