Macro

In today’s briefing:

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Market Update (April 29)
EA: GDP Stimulated Faster Than Supply
Actinver Research
CX Daily: Chinese EV-Makers Lured by Thai Perks Face Reality Check
Colombia: 25bp Rate Cut To 9.25% (Consensus 9.5%) in Apr-25
Thailand: 25bp Rate Cut To 1.75% (Consensus 1.75%) in Apr-25

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Market Update (April 29)

The HSI has pulled back below its long term averages however market breadth remains high with strong RSI and MACD technical indicators.
Mainland buying through the Southbound Connect platform reached a historical high after the tariff announcement on April 2nd.
Healthcare and Telecom sector have been able to maintain strength as the market pulled back.

EA: GDP Stimulated Faster Than Supply

Activity growth in Q1 shouldn’t be dismissed as it helps signal the economy’s momentum and effective monetary conditions that trade shocks will fall on top of in the euro area.
GDP growth exceeded expectations again by increasing to 0.35% q-o-q. Productivity’s poor post-pandemic performance helps GDP drive the ongoing fall in unemployment.
Supply’s trend seems to have softened despite demand’s improving, raising excesses and the risk that ECB monetary policy was already stimulative before the trade shock.

Actinver Research

Bimbo reported sales growth of 10.8% YoY, in line with our estimates.
Sales were supported by FX tailwinds –as sales in local currency contracted 0.3% YoY–, positive volumes and recent acquisitions.
Excluding FX tailwinds, sales in North America underperformed with an almost 5% YoY contraction, offsetting positive figures of other regions but slightly positive vs our more cautious estimates.

CX Daily: Chinese EV-Makers Lured by Thai Perks Face Reality Check

TOP STORY EVs / In Depth: Chinese EV-makers lured by Thai perks face reality check
IMF /China renews calls for IMF quota reform to boost the voice of emerging markets
Social security /Beijing should bolster social security to boost consumption, researchers say

Colombia: 25bp Rate Cut To 9.25% (Consensus 9.5%) in Apr-25

By Heteronomics AI

Banco de la República unanimously cut its benchmark rate by 25bps to 9.25%, surprising consensus expectations for no change and breaking a recent streak of unexpected holds.
Inflation resumed its downward path, with core and headline figures easing and market-based expectations declining, supporting a measured policy loosening stance.
While domestic demand remains resilient and growth forecasts have been upgraded, external financing conditions and fiscal uncertainty continue to pose constraints on the pace of further easing.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Thailand: 25bp Rate Cut To 1.75% (Consensus 1.75%) in Apr-25

By Heteronomics AI

The Bank of Thailand cut the policy rate by 25bps to 1.75%, in line with market expectations, in response to increasing downside risks from global trade tensions and weaker domestic growth prospects.
The central bank projects that Thai GDP growth could slow to between 1.3% and 2.0% in 2025, depending on tariff scenarios, while headline inflation falls below the target range, reflecting persistent disinflationary pressures.
Future rate decisions will depend on global trade developments, domestic credit conditions, and the inflation trajectory, with monetary policy likely to remain accommodative amid heightened external uncertainty.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

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Apr 30

Daily Brief Macro: EA: Easing Stagflationary Noise and more

In today’s briefing:

EA: Easing Stagflationary Noise
US Bear Market: THE TIDE GOES OUT BEFORE THE TSUNAMI HITS THE SHORE!
Proliferating Political Risks A Feature, Not A Bug, Of The New World Disorder
Sentiment Signal in Gold
Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 28 April
Water Wars: India’s Economic Trump Card in Kashmir Crisis
Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 28 April
[IO Fundamentals 2025/17] Stimulus Buzz Fuels Recovery and IO Inventories Expand
Brazil Financials: Losing Ground Amid Global Financials Rotation
[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/17] Henry Hub Extended Losing Streak on Mild Weather Outlook

EA: Easing Stagflationary Noise

Hard economic data must match gloomy sentiment to justify ECB rate cuts reaching a stimulative setting. The little evidence available so far doesn’t show much of a shock.
Bank lending growth kept rising for companies and households in March as monetary conditions appear to be loosening, not tightening, due to the initial tariff shock.
Activity surveys only softened slightly in services, while inflation expectations are broadly high. Failure to see much more stagflation eases the likelihood that it occurs.

US Bear Market: THE TIDE GOES OUT BEFORE THE TSUNAMI HITS THE SHORE!

It is the calm before the storm as US markets move up in a bear market rally.
China/US container ship sailings are at a standstill. Tariff effects will start to be felt in US retailers within weeks. Temu and Shein pass tariffs costs to the US consumer.
According to a Deutsche Bank report, foreign buyers of US assets are pulling back quickly. The virtuous cycle turns into a vicious spiral.

Proliferating Political Risks A Feature, Not A Bug, Of The New World Disorder

By Manu Bhaskaran

The past weeks have seen multiple geopolitical flashpoints emerge in Asia as various state and non-state actors take increasingly brazen steps to pursue their respective agendas.
The aftermath of the Kashmir terrorist attack has seen New Delhi and Islamabad ramp up retaliatory measures. Meanwhile, Beijing is seizing Sandy Clay and intensifying coercive tactics against Taiwan.
An inward-looking Washington and an unready China mean that there are no “adults in the room” who can moderate geopolitical risks, making such flashpoints more dangerous.

Sentiment Signal in Gold

By The Commodity Report

This chart from Sentiment Trader highlights that also gold stocks are quite stretched – which isn’t a sell signal, as a stretched market can always become more stretched.
Note: We’re long the June contract of Gold since mid of March
Another interesting thought regarding gold demand going forward: if AI models really become more efficient and less data center usage is needed, demand for gold in tech could be affected as well.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 28 April

US domestic Group I brightstock price outperforms lighter grades and Group II prices.
US export brightstock prices significantly lag brightstock prices in Europe and Asia.
Widening price-discount reflects signs of increasingly diverging supply-demand fundamentals between US and Europe and Asia.

Water Wars: India’s Economic Trump Card in Kashmir Crisis

By Viral Kishorchandra Shah

A limited conflict in Kashmir would have minimal economic impact, as the region is a small part of both economies.
India’s suspension of the Indus Water Treaty poses a bigger threat to Pakistan’s agriculture and water supply.
India may seek to isolate Pakistan internationally, possibly affecting Pakistan’s IMF bailout and global support.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 28 April

Global base oils price premium to feedstock/competing fuel prices stays higher at end-April 2025 than a month earlier.
Higher margins coincide with seasonal rise in demand and plant maintenance work.
Higher margins follow sharp fall in crude oil prices.

[IO Fundamentals 2025/17] Stimulus Buzz Fuels Recovery and IO Inventories Expand

By Pranay Yadav

PBoC holds the 1-year loan prime rate (LPR) at 3.1% and the 5-year LPR at 3.6%; both historic lows as trade tensions persist.
China’s Politburo vows faster bond issuance, lose monetary policy, and job protection measures to counter persistent economic challenges.
Iron ore inventories at Chinese ports increased in late April, ending a three-week decline, signaling softening near-term demand.

Brazil Financials: Losing Ground Amid Global Financials Rotation

By Steven Holden

Rotation is underway in the EM Financial sector, with selling in Brazil Financials funding rotation in to Greece, UAE and Argentinian financials.
Brazil Financials remain an overweight for the majority of EM funds, but conviction is falling, with selling in key names Banco Bradesco and Banco BTG Pactual.
Itau Unibanco Holding remains the flagship holding, owned by 43.7% of funds, though remains well below its 2010 ownership peak.

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/17] Henry Hub Extended Losing Streak on Mild Weather Outlook

For the week ending 25/Apr, U.S. natural gas prices fell by 9.5% on the back of warmer weather forecasts and rising production.
For the week ending 18/Apr, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 88 Bcf, higher than analyst expectations of a 69 Bcf build.
Henry Hub OI PCR rose to 0.96 on 28/Apr compared to 0.93 on 17/Apr. Call OI decreased by 18.5%, while put OI dropped by 16.1%.

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Apr 29

Daily Brief Macro: UK Politics: Labour Day and more

In today’s briefing:

UK Politics: Labour Day, Not Labour’s Day
Asian Equities: The Overvalued, Low Growth, Over-Leveraged Stocks
De-Risking Returns, This Time Towards America
Vietnam Rubber Export Returns Up, But Products Suffer In Feb
Steno Signals #194 — The March 2020 Parallel Intensifies
Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 28 April
Trump Versus the Fed: President Will Get His Way
Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 28 April 2025
CX Daily: China’s Pet Boom Bites Back
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – ACES, Alfamart, and Shakey’s Pizza

UK Politics: Labour Day, Not Labour’s Day

By Alastair Newton

The balance of seats Labour loses to Reform UK, compared to the LibDems and Greens, could be crucial in internal party disputes.
The outcomes of the local elections on 1 May could significantly influence this balance.
A concurrent by-election also stands to have a significant impact on government policy.

Asian Equities: The Overvalued, Low Growth, Over-Leveraged Stocks

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

We use quantamental screens to identify overvalued stocks in Asia, with weak fundamentals – consistently low earnings growth, forecast return ratios less than cost of capital, and over-leveraged balance sheets.
We screen Asia-listed stocks above US$1bn market cap on declining EPS CAGR over next 2 years, less than 10% ROE, higher than 1x PEG and P/BV, more than 80% D/E.
We identify 30 stocks: 11 from HK/China, 9 from Japan, 4 from Taiwan, 3 from India, and one each from Korea, Malaysia and Singapore. Financials, property, industrials dominate the list.

De-Risking Returns, This Time Towards America

By Manu Bhaskaran

After much talk about de-risking from China, countries are now applying the same lens in reviewing their economic, security, and technological dependencies on the US.
Countries will seek to expand and deepen trading links with other partners, but it will be hard to fully compensate for the closing down of the world’s largest consumer market.
No economic or geopolitical law mandates the existence of a global hegemon. The economic and security order is becoming more fragmented and decentralized.

Vietnam Rubber Export Returns Up, But Products Suffer In Feb

Rubber products exports to the US falls 4.99% MoM in Feb
Product exports to China surge by 143.22% MoM in Feb
Rubber exports value in Feb soar to US$225.71 million

Steno Signals #194 — The March 2020 Parallel Intensifies

By Andreas Steno

Happy Monday from a sunny Copenhagen! We have been banging the drum on the similarities between the tariffs-cycle and the Covid-cycle over the past month, and we are increasingly confident that the playbook holds true.
The kind of stop/go dynamics look clearly similar as a policy shock nukes the cycle, while the “solution” is to roll back the shock gradually.
A lockdown before a reopening essentially.

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 28 April

Asia’s base oils demand could wane as expectations of improving supply and more muted end-user consumption incentivize blenders to keep low stocks.
High base oils margins could add to buyers’ preference to hold back amid concern about disconnect between high margins and prospect of weaker supply-demand fundamentals.
More muted regional demand would speed up recovery in supply as more plant maintenance draws to a close in coming weeks.

Trump Versus the Fed: President Will Get His Way

By Said Desaque

Financial markets were recently frightened by the spectre of President Trump replacing Fed Chairman Powell before his term expires, but the era of peak Fed credibility has elapsed.
President Trump’s criticism of the Fed has some validity. The nexus between the Fed and the Treasury during Biden administration became tighter, thereby helping to facilitate profligate fiscal policy conduct.
The Fed will not offer updated forward guidance until June, but markets are discounting three policy rate reductions in 2025.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 28 April 2025

By Dr. Jim Walker

Bank Indonesia maintains high rates despite economic strain; Korea shows early signs of slowdown with weak investment and trade data.
India’s domestic economy remains strong, but early PMI data’s significance is limited.
U.S. trade policy assumptions collapse as tariffs rise and the dollar weakens, exposing flaws in anti-China strategies.

CX Daily: China’s Pet Boom Bites Back

Pets / In Depth: China’s pet boom bites back
China-Brazil /Trade war is a trade opportunity for Brazil, São Paulo mayor says
Canton Fair /In Depth: Despite slowdown in U.S. orders, global buyers flock to China’s biggest trade fair

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – ACES, Alfamart, and Shakey’s Pizza

By Angus Mackintosh

The past week saw insights on Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ), Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ), Shakey’s Pizza (PIZZA PM), Spindex Industries (SPE SP), and Thai Oil Pcl (TOP TB)
There was also a macro insight on Indonesia after its rate decision, an insight on the upcoming index rebalance in Indonesia, and a Singapore banks insight from Daniel Tabbush
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable macro and equity bottom insights from across Southeast Asia.

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Apr 28

Daily Brief Macro: Top 80 Companies in Korea by Short Interest and Days to Cover (Potential Short Squeeze Candidates) and more

In today’s briefing:

Top 80 Companies in Korea by Short Interest and Days to Cover (Potential Short Squeeze Candidates)
4 Reasons to Be Cautious About the ZBT Buy Signal
An American EM Crisis?
Copper Tracker 28th April 2025: A Huge Positive From The China March Lending Data
Iron Ore Tracker (28-Apr-2025): Iron Ore Within The Band, China Lending Data To The Rescue

Top 80 Companies in Korea by Short Interest and Days to Cover (Potential Short Squeeze Candidates)

By Douglas Kim

In this insight, we discuss potential short squeeze opportunities in the Korean stock market, using short interest and days to cover as main screening tools.
In KOSPI, the top three stocks with highest combination of short interest and days to cover include Doosan Fuel Cell, Posco Future M, and Hotel Shilla.
In this insight, we provided 80 companies (40 companies in KOSPI and KOSDAQ, respectively) that have high combination of short interest and days to cover ratios.

4 Reasons to Be Cautious About the ZBT Buy Signal

By Cam Hui

Last week’s Zweig Breadth Thrust buy signal gave investors reasons to be bullish on stocks, but we beg to differ.
Uncertainty remains high and we struggle to outline a clear intermediate-term bull case for stocks.
Moreover, hard activity-based data is poised to converge toward the soft weak survey-based data in the coming weeks, which has not been fully discounted by the market.

An American EM Crisis?

By Cam Hui

Confidence in the USD and Treasury assets is being eroded.
The U.S. faces stagflation and elevated recession risk in the next 12–18 months.
While investors usually hedge slow growth outcomes by holding USD and Treasuries, they would be better served by holding high-quality non-USD sovereign bonds and gold.

Copper Tracker 28th April 2025: A Huge Positive From The China March Lending Data

By Sameer Taneja

China’s Total Social Financing (TSF) saw a 22% YoY rise, reaching 5.89 trillion yuan, surpassing the expected 4.8 trillion yuan and boosting optimism for preemptive stimulus measures.
COMEX spreads rose above 1200 USD/ton, while Yangshan premiums climbed to 90 USD/ton, reinforcing our positive outlook on copper prices.
Positive Q1 FY25 results from Southern Copper (SCCO US), First Quantum Minerals (FM CN), and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)‘s positive production update have set the tone for a bullish copper outlook.

Iron Ore Tracker (28-Apr-2025): Iron Ore Within The Band, China Lending Data To The Rescue

By Sameer Taneja

Iron ore prices experienced a modest WoW increase of 0.2%, reflecting easing trade tensions as the US considers reducing some of the stringent tariffs previously imposed.
China’s Total Social Financing (TSF) increased by 22% YoY, reaching 5.89 trillion yuan, surpassing the expected 4.8 trillion yuan and boosting optimism for preemptive stimulus measures.
China’s March steel production rose 5% YoY to 92.8 million tons, underscoring its vital role in the market, contributing 56% to total global production.

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Apr 27

Daily Brief Macro: Overview#24 – Exiting No Man’s Land and more

In today’s briefing:

Overview#24 – Exiting No Man’s Land

Overview#24 – Exiting No Man’s Land

By Rikki Malik

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
Time to start unpacking your shorts for the summer season
Headlines should not distract from the big picture and provide trading opportunities

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Apr 26

Daily Brief Macro: HEW: Put Inside The Trump Collar and more

In today’s briefing:

HEW: Put Inside The Trump Collar
[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/17] Bullish Momentum Builds
The Diverging Impact of Falling Crude Prices on Various Oil Producing Regions
Indian Rubber Prices Shrugging Off Negative Trump Tariff Impact
Oilfield Services Industry to Bear the Brunt of Falling Oil Prices
“Trying To Crash The Market On Purpose”: How To Invest In A Trump Era
Actinver Research

HEW: Put Inside The Trump Collar

The US policy caused market volatility over Easter, creating a ‘Trump Collar’ to pricing, but the global economy remains unaffected by the attacks and uncertainty.
The upcoming week will see a heavy release of data, providing insights into current conditions.
Key data highlights include US payrolls, the ISMs, and Euro inflation for April, while Q1 EA and US GDP are likely to be discounted by the market as outdated information.

[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/17] Bullish Momentum Builds

By Pranay Yadav

SGX IO Futures gained $2.69/ton this week, closing at $100.24/ton on April 23, breaking above the R1 level of $99.00/ton.
Managed Money flipped to net short while Physicals turned net long, signaling a major positioning shift
MACD divergence and RSI at 51.09 reflect building bullish momentum despite prices trading below long-term moving averages.

The Diverging Impact of Falling Crude Prices on Various Oil Producing Regions

U.S. oil producers need prices between USD 61-70 per barrel to maintain profitability. With prices around USD 60 per barrel, drilling activity is likely to decrease.
Rising tariffs and trade uncertainty are increasing oilfield equipment costs and threatening production growth in the United States.
While Saudi Arabia faces fiscal pressures and OPEC supply constraints, Petrobras benefits from low breakeven costs, no OPEC restrictions, and strong investment.

Indian Rubber Prices Shrugging Off Negative Trump Tariff Impact

RSS-4 prices near stable around INR 198/kg for past ten days
Kerala farmers engaged in rainguarding in right earnest
RRII devises process for extracting top-quality rubber from skim latex

Oilfield Services Industry to Bear the Brunt of Falling Oil Prices

Crude prices plunged to multi-year lows amid rising global supply and trade tensions, stoking demand fears and slowing U.S. shale activity.
Oilfield services firms are underperforming peers as falling rig counts and steel tariffs drive up costs and erode margins.
With fixed-cost-heavy models and fewer upstream clients, the sector faces amplified downside risks and limited pricing power in the near term.

“Trying To Crash The Market On Purpose”: How To Invest In A Trump Era

By Finimize Research

“Trump is trying to crash the market on purpose.” When I first heard this theory a few weeks ago, I quickly dismissed it as absurd.
But just two days after “Liberation Day” Trump himself reposted a video claiming that he was intentionally driving the market lower.
That made me take a second look (and this time, with a more open mind). Hhere’s what it said – plus, my take on whether its claims hold water.

Actinver Research

Consolidated sales of P$45.5bn were 10.4% higher YoY, and above our estimates and consensus.
This was driven by better-than-expected SSS in Liverpool, sales in Suburbia, and other businesses (financial and real estate), which grew above retail sales.
Liverpool and Suburbia posted SSS growth of 7.9% and 7.3%, respectively, ahead of our estimates and consensus.

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Apr 25

Daily Brief Macro: DOGE Didn’t Dent Resilience and more

In today’s briefing:

DOGE Didn’t Dent Resilience
The Art of the Trade War: U.S. PANICS AND RETREATS!
The Drill: Watch oil as OPEC is imploding..
China: Tariff Walls to Exacerbate Capital Flight, Deflation, Over-Capacity Challenges
CX Daily: Luxury Brands Cut Price of Exclusivity as Chinese Spending Drops
Potential Change in Dividend Income Taxes in Korea – Will the Lawmakers Finally Make the Change?
[ETP 2025/17] WTI Tumbles Amid U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty, Henry Hub Continues to Slide
Antofagasta (ANTO LN) And First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) Q1 Updates

DOGE Didn’t Dent Resilience

President Trump is restructuring the US state through tariff funding and efficiency savings. The former dominates focus, but we also see no evidence of problematic cuts.
Jobless claims are low and stable, including among federal workers and in states with the highest federal workforce shares. Government job openings haven’t even fallen.
DOGE cuts are often multi-year and in grants to others. It may have helped the deficit, and the efficiency is fundamentally desirable. Concerns about it still seem overblown.

The Art of the Trade War: U.S. PANICS AND RETREATS!

The US has begun to retreat from the trade war it began this year. Trump and Bessent have both softened their statements toward China and indicated a lowering of tariffs.
Container ship bookings dropped off a cliff after Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement.
Trade negotiations are expected to take months or years, and will not change the bear market in the USD, equities, and treasuries as foreigners pull money from US asset markets.

The Drill: Watch oil as OPEC is imploding..

By Andreas Steno

The everlasting circus of US politics continues, and at this point, it almost seems like Bessent has effectively taken over the presidency—at least when it comes to pushing through the most critical U-turns in Trump’s policy decisions.
When we loop back over the major U-turns of the past couple of months, the most influential reversals all appear to have been driven by Bessent (and, to an extent, Lutnick)
What exactly is going on inside the Trump camp? It’s painfully obvious that they are not aligned on the public message, and to add fuel to the fire, Trump is now back attacking Zelensky once again.

China: Tariff Walls to Exacerbate Capital Flight, Deflation, Over-Capacity Challenges

By Prasenjit K. Basu

TSF increased by a record RMB15.18trn (US$2.09trn) in Q12025, enabling industrial growth of 6.5%YoY, FAI growth of 4.2%YoY, retail sales growth of 4.6%YoY and real GDP growth of 5.4%YoY.
Slumping imports and 7.5%YoY growth in exports in Q1/2025 took the 12m-rolling trade surplus to US$1.08trn in Mar’25, but FX reserves declined slightly YoY, suggesting persistence of colossal capital flight.
Producer prices have deflated for 5 of the past 10 years, including all 30 latest months (-2.5%YoY Mar’25). Tariff barriers will prevent exporting overcapacity, thereby exacerbating deflation, hastening financial crises.

CX Daily: Luxury Brands Cut Price of Exclusivity as Chinese Spending Drops

Luxury /: Luxury brands cut price of exclusivity as Chinese spending drops
Trade /: Xi’s Southeast Asia tour underscores regional trade ties
Tariffs /Interview: China’s vast market can be key to trade negotiations

Potential Change in Dividend Income Taxes in Korea – Will the Lawmakers Finally Make the Change?

By Douglas Kim

There is an important potential change in dividend income taxes that may finally be passed into law in Korea.
The Democratic Party of Korea (led by Democratic Party lawmaker Lee So-Young) is pushing legislation to separate the taxation of dividends from comprehensive income for publicly listed companies.
Among the top 100 companies in KOSPI (by market cap), there are 21 companies with more than 35% estimated dividend payout in 2025, including SK Telecom, POSCO Holdings, and KT&G.

[ETP 2025/17] WTI Tumbles Amid U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty, Henry Hub Continues to Slide

For the week ending 18/Apr, U.S. crude inventories rose by 0.2m barrels (vs. expectations of a 0.7m barrel fall). Gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell more than expected.
Henry Hub is headed for a fourth straight weekly decline. U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 88 Bcf, exceeding analyst expectations of a 69 Bcf build.
Analysts cut price targets for Exxon, Chevron, Occidental, and Halliburton. Activist investor Elliott raised its stake in BP to just over 5% via derivative contracts.

Antofagasta (ANTO LN) And First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) Q1 Updates

By Sameer Taneja

First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) reported their Q1 results, and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) reported their first quarter updates.
Due to the base effect, Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) first-quarter production numbers looked strong, with copper/gold production coming in at 20%/29% YoY.
First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) production was down by 2% YoY, but was expected as the company has lower production from the Sentinel mine.

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Apr 24

Daily Brief Macro: Lanka EDB Sits With Rubber Product Exporters To Tackle US Tariffs and more

In today’s briefing:

Lanka EDB Sits With Rubber Product Exporters To Tackle US Tariffs
Global Manufacturers Shrug Off Tariffs
CX Daily: How China Can Counter Trump’s Tariffs
OPEC, EIA, and IEA Lower Oil Price Projections; Natural Gas Expected to Be Resilient
Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Inflation Forecast (1h-Apr)
Indonesia: Policy Rate Held At 5.75% (Consensus 5.75%) in Apr-25

Lanka EDB Sits With Rubber Product Exporters To Tackle US Tariffs

85% of Lankan rubber products shipped to US, EU markets
Tariffs can diminish 28% of US rubber products export revenue
Govt allocates LKR 1500 million for rubber industry in Budget

Global Manufacturers Shrug Off Tariffs

Volatile and destructive US trade policy has roiled markets and confidence, but April’s flash PMI data suggests the sector isn’t suffering significantly more than before.
The average held steady while the US balance increased. Weakness concentrated in the UK, where experience of the past decade suggests it is more distorted by bad vibes.
Unemployment data are a more reliable signal, albeit lagging, and these also remain remarkably resilient. Rate cuts rely on Trump breaking the economy, but lack evidence.

CX Daily: How China Can Counter Trump’s Tariffs

Tariffs / In Depth: How China can counter Trump’s tariffs The potential impact of U.S.
Data /Analysis: Why China’s tax revenue is falling even as GDP jumps
Service /: China expands pilot to liberalize service sector amid trade tensions

OPEC, EIA, and IEA Lower Oil Price Projections; Natural Gas Expected to Be Resilient

OPEC lowered its 2025 oil demand growth forecast to 1.3m bpd from 1.45m bpd, while the IEA and EIA also revised forecasts down to 0.90m bpd and 0.73m bpd, respectively.
The EIA significantly lowered its 2025-2026 crude oil price outlook, citing the dual impact of Trump’s tariffs and OPEC+’s decision to boost output.
U.S. tariffs and China’s retaliatory measures are injecting uncertainty into global oil trade and refining margins.

Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Inflation Forecast (1h-Apr)

We anticipate that inflation for the first half of April will stand at 0.10% biweekly (3.93% YoY), driven by increases in tourism-related services and certain agricultural products.
Typically, inflation for this period averages -0.02% biweekly, as electricity subsidies begin in northern states due to rising seasonal temperatures.
For this period, we expect electricity prices to fall by -12.5% biweekly.

Indonesia: Policy Rate Held At 5.75% (Consensus 5.75%) in Apr-25

By Heteronomics AI

Bank Indonesia maintained the BI-Rate at 5.75%, in line with expectations, with a cautious stance to safeguard price stability and currency fundamentals amid heightened global uncertainty stemming from US-China trade tensions.
A resilient external position—anchored by a robust trade surplus, substantial reserves, and controlled inflation—has enabled the central bank to manage volatility while preserving policy flexibility.
With inflation subdued and global headwinds intensifying, Bank Indonesia retains an easing bias, with future rate cuts contingent on inflation dynamics, Rupiah stability, and international capital flow conditions.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

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Apr 23

Daily Brief Macro: Prisoner’s Dilemma For Ukraine and more

In today’s briefing:

Prisoner’s Dilemma For Ukraine
Gold: YOU AIN’T SEEN NOTHIN’ YET!
Trade War Winner & Losers – Where To Invest?
Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 21 April
Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 21 April
[IO Fundamentals 16/2025] Robust China Data and Shrinking IO Inventories
Actinver Research – CADU 1Q25: Weak Quarterly Results as Expected (Quick View)
CX Daily: China Writes First Legal Rulebook to Strengthen Its Vital Private Sector
Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 21 April
Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 21 April

Prisoner’s Dilemma For Ukraine

Ukraine cannot avoid painful settlements as the US and Russia pull its resources apart. Europe has no veto over US taxpayers and can’t block all attempts to loosen sanctions.
Further progress to peace is likely over the next few months. If the US walks away from talks, it is most likely dropping support too, postponing peace while Russia gains more.
Intensifying support would raise risks along a hard-fought market-negative path. Risks will also remain more elevated in Korea after Ukraine’s misguided incursion into Russia.

Gold: YOU AIN’T SEEN NOTHIN’ YET!

Gold’s advance is accelerating in the face of increased global uncertainty and inflation expectations.
The price is now asymmetric based on various economic outcomes, including a renewed safe-haven status during the global trade war.
The ratio of gold to the S&P remains at depressed levels but is starting to reverse as the S&P continues its bear market.

Trade War Winner & Losers – Where To Invest?

By Sharmila Whelan

Our top buy calls are the Philippines, India, Japan, Malaysia, Taiwan and Europe.
Least vulnerable: Russia, Brazil, Philippines, South Africa, Indonesia, India and Malaysia. Most vulnerable: Vietnam, Taiwan, Mexico, Thailand and EU.
Countries facing the highest reciprocal tariff rates, with large surpluses vis-à-vis the US and high gross exports to GDP ratios will buckle first.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 21 April

Global base oils prices stay firm vs feedstock/competing fuel prices.
Firm base oils margins point to tight supply and strong demand.
Firm base oils margins incentivize refiners to raise base oils output.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 21 April

Asia’s Group II base oils prices hold firm relative to prices in regional markets like northeast Asia so far this year.
Asia’s Group II base oils prices hold firm relative to prices in more distant markets like Americas so far this year.
Asia’s firm prices complicate arbitrage, reflecting tighter-than-usual regional supply late last year and in early-2025.

[IO Fundamentals 16/2025] Robust China Data and Shrinking IO Inventories

By Pranay Yadav

China’s economy grew 5.4% in Q1 2025, matching Q4 2024 and beating forecasts, as manufacturers boosted exports ahead of Trump’s tariffs.
China’s March retail sales (+5.9% YoY) and factory output (+7.7% YoY) beat forecasts, accelerating from Jan-Feb growth as economic recovery gains momentum.
Iron ore inventories fell further in April, with both SMM and CISA reporting weekly drops. Weather-disrupted port operations tightened supply, supporting prices, though US-China trade tensions add demand uncertainty.

Actinver Research – CADU 1Q25: Weak Quarterly Results as Expected (Quick View)

Total revenues in the quarter decreased 10% YoY, practically in line with our estimate, mainly due to weak performance in the housing revenue row.
In contrast, the other revenue segment (land sales) reached P$60 million, a 21% YoY contraction (25% below our estimate), representing 7% of total sales.
The weak housing sales performance was due to a substantial 33% YoY contraction in total units, explained by a soft opening of new projects in the affordable entry-level in Cancun and Playa del Carmen and the gradual improvement in the construction of new projects in Jalisco and Quintana Roo (which are expected to be concluded during the 4Q25).

CX Daily: China Writes First Legal Rulebook to Strengthen Its Vital Private Sector

Law / Cover Story: China writes first legal rulebook to strengthen its vital private sector
Drugs /In Depth: Popular overseas expansion strategy holds pitfalls for Chinese drug developers
Jobs /Analysis: How China can cushion jobs blow from Trump’s trade war

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 21 April

Asia’s base oils prices stay high relative to feedstock/competing fuel prices even as they edge lower.
Firm margins point to tight supply-demand fundamentals.
Margins hold firm even with demand fundamentals showing signs of easing and some plant maintenance work drawing to a close.

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 21 April

Seasonal rise in US base oils demand likely to be more muted as concern about economic slowdown incentivizes blenders to maintain lower stocks.
Weak demand and rising surplus supply typically puts more pressure on export prices before domestic prices.
US base oils domestic prices instead fall while export prices hold steady so far in April 2025.

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Apr 22

Daily Brief Macro: Steno Signals #194 – A Mar-a-Lago Accord- or Meltdown? and more

In today’s briefing:

Steno Signals #194 – A Mar-a-Lago Accord- or Meltdown?
[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/16] Henry Hub Sinks on Milder Weather and Record Output
Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 21 April
[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/16] WTI Rebounds on Improved Trade Outlook and Strong U.S. Demand
Farmers Lock Horns With Scientists Over Rubber Clone Yields In India
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Grab’s Initiatves, Wintermar Marine, and The Keepers.
Greek Economy – April 4, 2025

Steno Signals #194 – A Mar-a-Lago Accord- or Meltdown?

By Andreas Steno

Happy Monday and welcome to my weekly editorial on everything macro.
Everyone’s talking about the USD meltdown and whether it marks a seismic shift in the international system as we know it.
Markets are clearly responding to Trump’s list of “non-tariff barriers,” which notably placed FX manipulation at the very top.

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/16] Henry Hub Sinks on Milder Weather and Record Output

For the week ending 17/Apr, U.S. natural gas prices fell by 8% on the back of warmer weather forecasts and rising production.
For the week ending 11/Apr, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 16 Bcf, which was lower than analyst expectations of a 24 Bcf increase.
Henry Hub OI PCR fell to 0.93 on 17/Apr compared to 0.95 on 11/Apr. Call OI increased by 2.4% WoW, while put OI grew by 0.3%.

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 21 April

Asia’s base oils demand could face more marked pressure as expectations of softer supply-demand fundamentals coincide with concern about economic slowdown and impact of US tariffs.
Uncertainty about timing, size and impact of US tariffs adds to blenders’ incentive to maintain lower stocks.
High base oils prices relative to feedstock and gasoil prices and relative to other regions add to incentive to hold back.

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/16] WTI Rebounds on Improved Trade Outlook and Strong U.S. Demand

WTI futures rose 4.1% for the week ending 17/Apr, driven primarily by U.S.-China trade talks and falling U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories.
The U.S. rig count rose by two to 585. The oil rig count rose by one to 481, while gas rigs also grew by one to 96.
WTI OI PCR inched up to 0.81 on 17/Apr from 0.80 on 11/Apr. Call OI decreased by 13% WoW, while put OI dropped by 11.9%.

Farmers Lock Horns With Scientists Over Rubber Clone Yields In India