Category

South Korea

Mar 10
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Cosmo AM&T, Doosan Robotics, Celltrion Healthcare, Hanall Biopharma and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • MSCI Korea May Review: Two New Names Are Emerging for Inclusion
  • Doosan Robotics (Number One Player in Collaborative Robots in Korea) & NAV Analysis of Doosan Corp
  • Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: 1Q 2023
  • Hanall Biopharma (009420 KS): Lead Pipeline Asset Moved a Step Closer to Commercialization in China

MSCI Korea May Review: Two New Names Are Emerging for Inclusion

By Sanghyun Park

  • Two new names have emerged as likely candidates for inclusion in Korea: SM Entertainment and Cosmo Advanced Materials, whose YTD returns are approximately 104% and 83%, respectively.
  • For SM Entertainment, the float rate may be adjusted downward depending on the tender offer results. Still, even if modified to 50%, it will surpass the float market cap hurdle.
  • Cosmo still has a significant gap in the full market cap. However, we should note that the recent insane rally in Korea’s EV battery sector shows no signs of ending.

Doosan Robotics (Number One Player in Collaborative Robots in Korea) & NAV Analysis of Doosan Corp

By Douglas Kim

  • The Doosan Group is aiming to complete the IPO of Doosan Robotics in 2H 2023. Doosan Robotics is expected to be one of the largest IPOs in Korea in 2023. 
  • The local media have mentioned that Doosan Robotics could receive at least 1 trillion won (US$0.8 billion) in market cap valuation. 
  • Established in 2015, Doosan Corp owns a 90.9% stake in Doosan Robotics, which is the largest collaborative robot manufacturer in Korea.

Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: 1Q 2023

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the alpha generation through companies that have been buying back their shares in the Korean stock market in 1Q 2023.
  • We provide a list of 23 stocks in the Korean stock market that have announced share buyback programs in 1Q 2023.
  • Some of the larger companies (with more than 1 trillion won in market cap) that have recently announced share buybacks including Celltrion Healthcare have been outperforming the market.

Hanall Biopharma (009420 KS): Lead Pipeline Asset Moved a Step Closer to Commercialization in China

By Tina Banerjee

  • Hanall Biopharma (009420 KS)‘s partner Harbour BioMed reported positive top-line results from Phase 3 trial of batoclimab in myasthenia gravis in China. 250K people suffer from myasthenia gravis in China.  
  • Harbour BioMed plans to file for marketing approval of batoclimab this year. Hanall is eligible for high-single-digits to mid-teen percentage royalties on net sales of batoclimab.
  • Hanall reported record high revenue of KRW110 billion in 2022. However, net profit plunged 78% to KRW2 billion due to increased investments in R&D.

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Mar 09
0

Daily Brief South Korea: DGB Financial Group, HYBE and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Meritz Merger Approved: Let’s Now Discuss Key Dates & Entry Points For LONG DGB Financial
  • HYBE: May Be Seeking to Raise As Much as 1 Trillion Won (Will Investors Support This Plan)?

Meritz Merger Approved: Let’s Now Discuss Key Dates & Entry Points For LONG DGB Financial

By Sanghyun Park

  • K200 ad hoc change announcement date should be March 30 as the buyback ends on March 28, and rebalancing trading should occur on March 31.
  • From a juice-level perspective, the entry point and timing for JB Financial showed much better performance from EGM approval rather than the announcement.
  • We should consider gradually building up positions from this point until March 30 announcement or one day after (T-1 effective) while utilizing Kodex Banks ETF to hedge our long positions.

HYBE: May Be Seeking to Raise As Much as 1 Trillion Won (Will Investors Support This Plan)?

By Douglas Kim

  • In the last few days, there have been local media accounts that mentioned that HYBE may be seeking as much as 1 trillion won (US$760 million) from investors.
  • The more likely scenario is that HYBE encounters a greater backlash from the global investors in its attempts to raise nearly 1 trillion won.
  • We maintain our existing stance of Kakao eventually winning this M&A battle for the controlling stake in SM Entertainment.

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Mar 08
0

Daily Brief South Korea: S.M.Entertainment Co, Doosan Bobcat Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • K-Pop Battle, Round 2: Kakao’s Tender Offer For S.M. Entertainment
  • Doosan Bobcat: Block Deal Sale of 4.8% of Outstanding Shares
  • Doosan Bobcat Placement – Past Deal Didn’t Do Well, This Time Could Be Different

K-Pop Battle, Round 2: Kakao’s Tender Offer For S.M. Entertainment

By David Blennerhassett

  • Fresh after the courts rejected new share issuance, Kakao (035720 KS) has launched an Offer for S.M.Entertainment (041510 KS), less than a week after HYBE (352820 KS)‘s deal closed.
  • Kakao, holding 4.9%, is seeking to lift its stake to ~40% via a tender offer at ₩150,000/share, a 25% premium to HYBE’s offer price. 
  • The key question is – will HYBE counter? I would not be so sure. 

Doosan Bobcat: Block Deal Sale of 4.8% of Outstanding Shares

By Douglas Kim

  • On 7 March, Doosan Bobcat announced a block deal sale of 4.87 million shares, representing 4.8% of outstanding shares. The block deal discount range is from 6.11% to 8.03%. 
  • We have a Negative view on this block deal sale and we continue to have a Negative view on Doosan Bobcat’s shares.
  • There are visible signs of the construction sector slowdown in North America and Europe driven by higher interest rates, housing price declines, and decline in the residential/commercial construction markets.

Doosan Bobcat Placement – Past Deal Didn’t Do Well, This Time Could Be Different

By Sumeet Singh

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Mar 07
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Mirae Asset Tiger Top 10 ETF, Rainbow Robotics, S.M.Entertainment Co, Coupang, Samsung FN Reit and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Long Short Setup Candidate: Posco Holdings & Celltrion with TIGER Top 10 Rebalancing
  • KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Outperform Deletes by 50% in 4 Months, EXIT!
  • Kakao Announces a Tender Offer of SM Entertainment at 150,000 Won Per Share
  • Kakao’s Tender Offer to SM Ent Shareholders: Key Details of Disclosure Filed This Morning
  • Coupang: Revenue & Profits Let Coupang Down, Valuation Is Still at a Significant Premium to Peers
  • Samsung FN REIT: The First Major REIT IPO for Samsung Group

Long Short Setup Candidate: Posco Holdings & Celltrion with TIGER Top 10 Rebalancing

By Sanghyun Park

  • Celltrion and Posco Holdings will switch places. Although there is still time until the screening period, the market capitalization gap between them has already widened significantly.
  • Posco Holdings will likely welcome a passive inflow of 0.44x ADTV, whereas Celltrion is expected to face outflows of around 0.69x ADTV.
  • Ecopro BM entered the Top 20 (preliminary screening table) with a YTD stock price increase of 130%, becoming the first KOSDAQ-listed company to do so.

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Outperform Deletes by 50% in 4 Months, EXIT!

By Brian Freitas

  • Two thirds of the way through the review period for the June rebalance, we see 9 potential changes to the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX). 
  • One-Way turnover is estimated at 3.5%. Impact on the expected deletions is a lot higher than the impact on the expected inclusions and shorts are building up on the deletes.
  • Since the start of the review period, the potential inclusions have outperformed the potential deletions by nearly 50% and the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) by over 20%.

Kakao Announces a Tender Offer of SM Entertainment at 150,000 Won Per Share

By Douglas Kim

  • On 7 March, Kakao Corp (035720 KS) announced a tender offer of up to 35% of outstanding shares of SM Entertainment at 150,000 won per share.
  • We believe that this will be a successful tender offer and the share price of SM Entertainment is likely to surge to near 150,000 won per share. 
  • The minority shareholders of SM Entertainment are cheering on as its share price appreciation will be nearly 96% from end of 2022 to the tender offer price of 150,000 won. 

Kakao’s Tender Offer to SM Ent Shareholders: Key Details of Disclosure Filed This Morning

By Sanghyun Park

  • Kakao and Kakao Entertainment each plan to purchase 4.167 million shares at ₩150,000 per share, totaling 8.33 million. This is a 14.5% premium to the last close.
  • The tendering ending date is March 26th, Sunday, so the actual ending date is March 24th. Since Korea adopts the T+2 settlement system, stocks must be purchased by the 22nd.
  • The price of SM may decline towards below the tender price relatively quickly as a large number of retail investors will likely bet on the prolonged proxy battle.

Coupang: Revenue & Profits Let Coupang Down, Valuation Is Still at a Significant Premium to Peers

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • South Korea’s largest e-commerce company, Coupang (CPNG US) sank around 20% leading up to 4Q22 earnings. It dropped another 9% soon after the earnings report to around $14.0 per ADS.
  • Meanwhile, the valuation remains expensive compared to regional peers as Coupang is trading at an 80% premium to the second most expensive e-commerce name in the region.
  • If the share price breaks the trend line here, we think shares could go on to fall below the last year’s bottom of $8.98 per ADS.

Samsung FN REIT: The First Major REIT IPO for Samsung Group

By Douglas Kim

  • Samsung FN REIT is getting ready to complete its IPO in April 2023, which will be the first Samsung Group related REIT that will become public. 
  • The core real estate properties of Samsung FN REIT will include the ‘Daechi Tower’ and ‘S1 Building’ which have excellent locations in Seoul. 
  • We expect a huge demand for this IPO of Samsung FN REIT and we have a Positive view of this IPO. 

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Mar 06
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Sebang Co Ltd, SK Bioscience and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • KOSPI Size Indices – Changes in March & Implications
  • SK Bioscience (302440 KS): Disappointing 2022 Result; Non-COVID Vaccines Are Key to Revival

KOSPI Size Indices – Changes in March & Implications

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 5 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 4 LargeCap to MidCap, 3 new additions to MidCap, 9 SmallCap to MidCap, 11 MidCap to SmallCap, 3 new additions to SmallCap.
  • The migrations from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed the stocks migrating between other segments by a huge margin over the last few months.
  • Given the huge outperformance and looking at how the migrations have performed historically, we’d expect the stocks migrating to MidCap to underperform post implementation of the changes.

SK Bioscience (302440 KS): Disappointing 2022 Result; Non-COVID Vaccines Are Key to Revival

By Tina Banerjee

  • SK Bioscience (302440 KS) reported sluggish performance in 2022, with revenue and net profit declining 51% and 66%, YoY, respectively, due to the weakening demand of the COVID-19 vaccines.
  • Although the company’s shingles vaccine is the leader in domestic market, it is facing new competition as an international player has launched a new shingles vaccine in Korea this year.
  • SK Bioscience stopped production of its bread-and-butter earning flu vaccine to focus on COVID-19 vaccine, thereby losing market share to rival. Re-entering the market will not be easy.  

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Mar 05
0

Daily Brief South Korea: S.M.Entertainment Co, GS Retail, SK Innovation and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Korean Court Rules Against SM Entertainment From Issuing New Shares to Kakao
  • KOSPI Size Indexes Migrants: Official Results & Price Performances So Far
  • K-New Deal Official Constituent Changes: Evaluating Flow Trading Opportunities

Korean Court Rules Against SM Entertainment From Issuing New Shares to Kakao

By Douglas Kim

  • On 3 March, it was announced that a Korean court has ruled against SM Entertainment from issuing new shares and CB to Kakao Corp (035720 KS).
  • HYBE’s tender offer period ended on 1 March. It is highly unlikely for HYBE to have successfully completed the tender offer reaching the entire 25% of outstanding shares.
  • We maintain our position of a high probability of Kakao initiating its own tender offer of SM Entertainment shares in the coming weeks at about 140,000/150,000 won or more.

KOSPI Size Indexes Migrants: Official Results & Price Performances So Far

By Sanghyun Park

  • Once again, the profit from Long Short basket trading has also been significant this time. The returns were quite juicy even if the period is shortened to From-February. 
  • The critical question now is whether the juice remains until the effective date. From what I can see, there is still some juice left.
  • This is because it is generally observed that the flow trading window for this event tends to continue beyond the effective date.

K-New Deal Official Constituent Changes: Evaluating Flow Trading Opportunities

By Sanghyun Park

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Mar 04
0

Daily Brief South Korea: EcoPro Materials, Celltrion Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Initial Thoughts on the Ecopro Materials IPO
  • Celltrion (068270 KS): Disappointing 4Q22 Result; No Immediate Respite Is Seen

Initial Thoughts on the Ecopro Materials IPO

By Douglas Kim

  • Ecopro Materials, an affiliate of Ecopro, is getting ready to complete its IPO in 2H 2023. Ecopro Co has a 52.8% stake in Ecopro Materials. 
  • Ecopro Materials’ core products are lithium cell core materials called precursors, which are used as part of the rechargeable batteries. 
  • The expected market value of Ecopro Materials is about 3 trillion won to 4 trillion won (US$2.3 billion to US$3.0 billion).

Celltrion (068270 KS): Disappointing 4Q22 Result; No Immediate Respite Is Seen

By Tina Banerjee

  • Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) reported Q4 results, with revenue, operating profit, and net profit declined YoY and QoQ. Absence of COVID-related products dragged revenue, while non-recurring expenses impacted margins.
  • Pricing pressure in biosimilar products and elevated R&D expenses are negatively impacting bottom line. With pipeline progress and upcoming product launches, R&D expenses are expected to remain elevated.
  • Celltrion expects to launch Humira biosimilar in the US in July 2023. This year, 8 players are expected to launch Humira biosimilar.

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Mar 03
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Osstem Implant, Hanssem Co Ltd, Mathpresso, Coupang and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • MBK & Unison Capital Trying to Take Osstem Implant Private: “Two Yards to Endzone”
  • IMM PE Lanches A Tender Offer on Hanssem
  • Mathpresso: Google Backed AI-Based Math Problem Solver
  • [Coupang Inc. (CPNG US) Earnings Review]: Upsides Ahead in Category and Margin Expansion

MBK & Unison Capital Trying to Take Osstem Implant Private: “Two Yards to Endzone”

By Douglas Kim

  • MBK Partners and Unison Capital are trying to take Osstem Implant (048260 KS) private. Currently, it is estimated that the MBK/Unison consortium has secured 88.7% stake in Osstem Implant. 
  • In the case of companies listed in KOSDAQ,  if you have a stake of 90% or more, the company can generally proceed with discussions on delisting with the exchange.
  • There is a high probability of delisting sometime in March/April under two different scenarios. The second scenario offers the remaining minority shareholders and arb traders potential for further alpha creation. 

IMM PE Lanches A Tender Offer on Hanssem

By Douglas Kim

  • IMM private equity fund launched a tender offer on Hanssem Co Ltd (009240 KS) and its share price surged by 19.7% to reach 53,700 won today.
  • IMM is currently the largest shareholder in Hanssem with a 27.7% stake in the company. IMM’s stake in Hanssem will rise to about 36% if this tender offer is successful.
  • Hanssem’s share price still 2.4% below the tender offer price of 55,000 won. In the coming days, we believe the share price will reach closer to the tender offer price.

Mathpresso: Google Backed AI-Based Math Problem Solver

By Douglas Kim

  • Mathpresso (Qanda app) uses AI technology to provide homework assistance for math problems. 
  • As of February 2023, the Qanda app solved 4.7 billion math problems. The Qanda app is available in numerous languages including Korean, English, Spanish, Japanese, Vietnamese, Indonesian and Thai.
  • The company has received $122 million in funding since the inception of the company. Major investors in Mathpresso include Google, Softbank, Smilegate Investment, Legend Holdings, and GGV Capital. 

[Coupang Inc. (CPNG US) Earnings Review]: Upsides Ahead in Category and Margin Expansion

By Shawn Yang

  • Coupang reported C4Q22 total revenue missed our est. and cons. by (5%) and (2%). Net income missed our est. by (9%) and beat cons. by 18%. 
  • We see upsides in margin due to change in product mix, higher contribution in ads, and optimization in logistics.
  • We trimmed our 2023 total revenue growth est. by (4%) and raise net income est. by 9% for operating efficiency improvement. Maintain BUY.

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Mar 02
0

Daily Brief South Korea: SK Square, Riiid, Kakao Brain Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Sweden’s EQT to Acquire a 68% Stake in SK Shieldus – Positive Impact on SK Square
  • RiiiD: AI Machine Learning Technology to Improve Students Education and Test Scores
  • Kakao Brain: Leading Provider of AI Based Text-To-Image Service & Launch of KoGPT in 2H 2023

Sweden’s EQT to Acquire a 68% Stake in SK Shieldus – Positive Impact on SK Square

By Douglas Kim

  • On 1 March, it was announced that Sweden’s EQT will be acquiring a 68% controlling stake in SK Shieldus (393820 KS).
  • EQT Partners is controlled by Sweden’s powerful Wallenberg family. EQT will invest a total amount of 2 trillion won (US$1.5 billion) in SK Shieldus.
  • Our NAV analysis of SK Square suggests NAV of 7.9 trillion won or NAV per share of 55,507, representing a 45% upside from current levels.

RiiiD: AI Machine Learning Technology to Improve Students Education and Test Scores

By Douglas Kim

  • Riiid uses AI machine learning technology including “reinforcement learning algorithm” to improve student education.
  • Riiid has a strong presence in the TOEIC test prep services in Asia. Now, it is expanding its business in the SAT and ACT prep markets in the United States.
  • Since the company’s inception, the company has received about $250 million in funding including from Softbank Vision Fund.

Kakao Brain: Leading Provider of AI Based Text-To-Image Service & Launch of KoGPT in 2H 2023

By Douglas Kim

  • One of the most promising projects that Kakao Brain is currently developing includes an AI Korean language model called KoGPT, which would be similar to ChatGPT service. 
  • In February 2023, Kakao Brain created a major magazine cover which was the first time in South Korea that an AI-based artwork has been published on a major magazine cover.
  • There are five major companies including Kakao Brain, Naver Corp, SK Telecom, KT Corp, and LG AI Research that are actively developing Korean language versions of Chat GPT.

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Mar 01
0

Daily Brief South Korea: KMW Co Ltd, WCP, Posco Chemical Co Ltd, Coupang and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Long Short Setup on Douzone Bizon & KMW with K-New Deal Rebalancing on March 9
  • End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 35 Companies in Korea in March 2023
  • KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Flows as Announcement Looms
  • What to Check at Coupang Earnings Call Tomorrow

Long Short Setup on Douzone Bizon & KMW with K-New Deal Rebalancing on March 9

By Sanghyun Park

  • Another valuable long-short opportunity has arisen this time with K-New Deal rebalancing. The pair consists of Douzone Bizon and KMW, which have switched places in the Internet Index’s top three.
  • Due to their relatively low trading volume, the passive flow size (x ADTV) that this pair will face at the closing price on March 9th is expected to be significant.
  • This creates sufficient opportunities for a Long-Short setup in terms of day or swing trading. As KMW is a constituent of the KOSDAQ 150, it is possible to short KMW.

End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 35 Companies in Korea in March 2023

By Douglas Kim

  • We discuss end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 35 stocks in Korea in March 2023, among which 8 are in KOSPI and 27 are in KOSDAQ.
  • These 35 stocks on average could be subject to further selling pressures in March and could underperform relative to the market. 
  • Among these 35 stocks, the top 5 market cap stocks include Nh Investment & Securities, WCP, Bionote, Jeio, and Dreamtech. 

KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Flows as Announcement Looms

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the March rebalance ended on 31 January, changes will be announced in the next few days and implemented at the close of trading on 9 March.
  • We forecast one add/delete for the Secondary Battery Index and Game Index, and a couple of adds/deletes for the BBIG Index. There will be a lot of capping changes.
  • The largest inflows are expected on Posco Chemical (003670 KS) and Douzone Bizon (012510 KS); the largest outflows are expected on SK Innovation (096770 KS) and KMW (032500 KS).

What to Check at Coupang Earnings Call Tomorrow

By Sanghyun Park

  • We first check whether additional cost savings have been achieved in the center and whether there has been any deterioration in short-term liquidity due to the hasty pursuit of automation.
  • Then, we check the soundness of new businesses such as quick commerce, which boasts delivery within 30 minutes but carries the risk of deteriorating short-term profitability.
  • Lastly, we check how seriously Coupang’s real estate cost structure has deteriorated and assess the risk that this could lead to devaluation by potentially undermining Coupang’s growth premium.

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