Category

South Korea

Jun 30
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Sfa Engineering, Samsung Electronics, ALT Semicon and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Preemptive Short Position Buildup on SFA Engineering for Samsung’s Next Stake Sale
  • Samsung Electronics:  Return of the King
  • ALT Co IPO Preview

Preemptive Short Position Buildup on SFA Engineering for Samsung’s Next Stake Sale

By Sanghyun Park

  • Samsung Display still holds a 5.85% stake. Hankyung reported that this remaining stake would also be disposed of in the future.
  • Then the key lies in timing. Considering the ongoing pattern of block deals being exposed during the pre-sounding phase, we may be able to capture clues for preemptive trading.
  • As seen from the chart depicting SFA’s loan balance and the percentage of short-selling to daily TV, we can observe a significant increase in activity just before today’s sale event.

Samsung Electronics:  Return of the King

By Steven Holden

  • Asia Ex-Japan investors move from underweight to a record overweight in Samsung Electronics
  • Samsung has been a key beneficiary of manager rotation over the last 6-months alongside BYD, Trip Com and Meituan.
  • Majority of funds positioned overweight with a record 81.4% of funds holding a position.  Samsung becomes one of the highest conviction holdings in the Asia Ex-Japan region.

ALT Co IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • ALT Co is getting ready to complete its IPO in Korea in July. ALT tests high-performance non-memory semiconductors applied to various industries such as secondary batteries, artificial intelligence, and automotive. 
  • The bankers used four companies as comps for ALT including Lb Semicon, LB Lusem, Doosan Tesna, and Nepes Ark. These four stocks are up on average 48% YTD.
  • The IPO price range is from 16,700 won to 20,500 won. The expected market cap of the company post IPO is from 150 billion won to 184 billion won. 

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Jun 29
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Posco M-Tech, Nongshim Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • CFD Liquidation in Korea: Posco DX, Celltrion Siblings, and Potential Next Targets
  • Government Pressures Korean Instant Noodles & Flour Makers to Lower Prices

CFD Liquidation in Korea: Posco DX, Celltrion Siblings, and Potential Next Targets

By Sanghyun Park

  • Yesterday and today, there have been observed cases in Korea that are suspected to be caused by a sudden drop in stock prices due to CFD liquidation trading.
  • Yesterday it was Celltrion with its two siblings, and today it is Posco DX. I have found candidates that may have similar stock price movements.
  • These candidates experienced a notable increase in their stock prices from late March to mid-April, and they have a relatively high margin transaction ratio.

Government Pressures Korean Instant Noodles & Flour Makers to Lower Prices

By Douglas Kim

  • In the past week, several leading Korean instant noodle makers including Nongshim, Samyang Foods, and Ottogi announced that they will be reducing instant noodle and snack prices starting July.
  • This government pressure to lower instant noodle and snack prices are likely to negatively impact companies including Nongshim, Samyang Foods, and Ottogi Corp.
  • We believe the share prices of the three major instant noodle makers including Nongshim, Samyang Foods, and Ottogi could face further underperformance relative to KOSPI in the next 3-6 months. 

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Jun 28
0

Daily Brief South Korea: SK Innovation, Celltrion Inc, Samsung Electronics, Hugel Inc, Posco ICT and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • What Arb Trading Opportunities Should We Target in SK Innovation’s Rights Offering?
  • Celltrion Group Merger Announcement in July & Oversold Post Disappointing Exclusion by OptumRX?
  • Samsung Electronics (005930 KS): Ongoing Struggles with Technology Leaks and Governance Issues
  • Hugel: A Solid Turnaround Story With Resumption of Botulax Sales in China
  • Hugel Inc (145020 KS): Expanding Global Presence Provides Solace Amid Patent Tussle with Competitor
  • Potential Changes to NPS’s KOSDAQ Benchmark with the Launch of KOSDAQ Global Index ETFs

What Arb Trading Opportunities Should We Target in SK Innovation’s Rights Offering?

By Sanghyun Park

  • We should seize the arbitrage trading opportunities between SSF and subscription rights during the rights trading window. SK Innovation’s SSF is highly liquid, being traded at nearly 0.5x spot.
  • The key is to catch the timing of basis widening. SK Innovation traditionally experiences significant intraday basis fluctuations, making it a crucial factor in maximizing our profitability.
  • The ex-date play, betting on the tendency for prices to close above the base price on the ex-date, may not hold significant appeal. This pattern has become less pronounced recently.

Celltrion Group Merger Announcement in July & Oversold Post Disappointing Exclusion by OptumRX?

By Douglas Kim

  • Invest Chosun recently reported that the three Celltrion Group companies including Celltrion Inc, Celltrion Healthcare, and Celltrion Pharm are close to announcing a merger in July.
  • Although Celltrion was not included this time as suppliers of Humira biosimilar products by OptumRX, there is still a potential for Cigna Express Scripts to include Celltrion’s product this year.
  • We think Celltrion Inc and Celltrion Healthcare’s share prices are oversold. 

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS): Ongoing Struggles with Technology Leaks and Governance Issues

By Jungmin(Charlotte) Hong

  • Former Samsung executive attempted to construct replicated factory 1.5 km away from Samsung Electronics’ Chinese plant by stealing technology
  • Prosecutors described this case as a leakage of “core national technologies”
  • This technology theft incident falls under the category of risk oversight, and currently, Samsung Electronics’ company risk is rated at an extreme level of 4.0

Hugel: A Solid Turnaround Story With Resumption of Botulax Sales in China

By Douglas Kim

  • Hugel is a solid turnaround story. The recent resumption of its Botulax product sales in China is likely to boost the company’s sales and profits in 2023 and 2024.
  • Despite this important catalyst, Hugel continues to face potential legal battle with Medytox over the botulinum toxin-related patent in the United States.
  • The overall valuation on Hugel remains attractive and it is trading at EV/EBITDA of 7.1x and P/E of 18.2x in 2023.

Hugel Inc (145020 KS): Expanding Global Presence Provides Solace Amid Patent Tussle with Competitor

By Tina Banerjee

  • Hugel Inc (145020 KS) is expected to start shipment of Botulax to China this month. Moreover, the company will launch its HA filler in China by middle of 2023.
  • Hugel plans to focus on expanding into the global market in 2H23. The company began full-scale sales of Botulax in Australia in April and plans to enter Canada this year.
  • Preliminary ruling regarding legal dispute in US is expected in November, while final ruling will come in March 2024. Hugel pushed back its US entry to 2025.  

Potential Changes to NPS’s KOSDAQ Benchmark with the Launch of KOSDAQ Global Index ETFs

By Sanghyun Park

  • NPS has expressed concerns about the wide risk range of the KOSDAQ 150 index, and there has been speculation about whether they will take advantage of the KOSDAQ Global Index.
  • The launch of these ETFs should be closely watched as it could potentially be a turning point in the investment patterns of local pension funds in KOSDAQ.
  • It may be worth considering the constituents included in this index where the NPS ownership stake does not reach 5%.

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Jun 26
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Eoflow , Lunit and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Merger Arb Mondays (26 Jun) – Eoflow, ENM, Estia, InvoCare, United Malt, Arclands, Chindata
  • KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: A Dozen Potential Changes from Now to December

Merger Arb Mondays (26 Jun) – Eoflow, ENM, Estia, InvoCare, United Malt, Arclands, Chindata

By Arun George

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: A Dozen Potential Changes from Now to December

By Brian Freitas

  • Nearly a third of the way through the review period, we see 12 potential changes for the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX EQUITY) at the December rebalance.
  • There could be one change to the index in July/August following Nice Information Service Co (030190 KS)‘s transfer from the KOSDAQ Market to the KOSPI Market.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last few months and there could be further outperformance as we go through the review period.

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Jun 24
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Celltrion Inc, SK Innovation and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Celltrion Merger Announcement in July: Trading Angles Utilizing Appraisal Rights Exercise Dynamics
  • SK Innovation: Rights Offering of 1.2 Trillion Won at a 21% Discount to Current Price

Celltrion Merger Announcement in July: Trading Angles Utilizing Appraisal Rights Exercise Dynamics

By Sanghyun Park

  • According to Invest Chosun, Celltrion plans to submit a merger registration statement to the KRX in July, with Mirae Asset Securities acting as the lead underwriter.
  • Given that the approximate timing of the merger registration statement submission has already been exposed to the market, we can track the difference between the spot and exercise prices.
  • Celltrion Inc will likely attempt to minimize the appraisal rights price. We can consider capitalizing on this possibility by shorting Celltrion Inc while going long on the other two companies.

SK Innovation: Rights Offering of 1.2 Trillion Won at a 21% Discount to Current Price

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 23 June, SK Innovation (096770 KS) announced that the company will conduct a rights offering worth 1.2 trillion won. 
  • We have a positive view on SK Innovation’s rights offering of 1.2 trillion won. The expected rights offering price is 143,800 won which is 21% discount to current price. 
  • Although we have a positive view of SK Innovation over the next 12 months, its share price could face some weakness in the near term due to this capital increase. 

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Jun 23
0

Daily Brief South Korea: SK Square, Almac, Daehan Flour Mills and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • SK Square’s Special Dividend Momentum Trading: Entry Timing at Month End.
  • SK Square: Share Cancellation and More Share Buyback Likely from Sale of SK Shieldus in 2H 2023
  • Almac IPO: Change in IPO Regulation & Trading Strategy in First Day of Trading
  • Daehan Flour Millsㅣ ControversyㅣConfidential Information Leakage in ‘Gompyo Wheat Beer’ Supply Chain

SK Square’s Special Dividend Momentum Trading: Entry Timing at Month End.

By Sanghyun Park

  • The market’s attention has shifted to the second part, which is the additional utilization of a portion of the harvest result for shareholder returns.
  • There is a significant possibility that the timing to allocate the ₩200B for shareholder returns will be advanced to late July or early August.
  • We should set up a position aiming for the potential for a special dividend, which may lead to momentum trading flow just before the quarterly ex-div date later this month.

SK Square: Share Cancellation and More Share Buyback Likely from Sale of SK Shieldus in 2H 2023

By Douglas Kim

  • SK Square announced that it will cancel treasury shares worth 2.5 million shares on 4 October 2023, which represents 1.8% of its current outstanding shares.
  • Our NAV analysis of SK Square suggests NAV of 9.4 trillion won or NAV per share of 66,421 won, representing a 45% upside from current levels.
  • SK Square’s positive shareholder return policies including higher share buybacks, cancellations, and dividends are result in further outperformance of SK Square relative to KOSPI this year. 

Almac IPO: Change in IPO Regulation & Trading Strategy in First Day of Trading

By Douglas Kim

  • Almac IPO is likely to benefit from the change in IPO regulations in Korea, which could result in a spike in its share price in the first day of trading.
  • Starting next week, the Korean IPO rules are changed so that the price limit on the newly listed companies will be expanded to 60-400% of the IPO price.
  • We believe Almac’s shares could OVERSHOOT by more than 200-250% versus the IPO price on the first day of trading, which would be 150,000 won to 175,000 won per share.

Daehan Flour Millsㅣ ControversyㅣConfidential Information Leakage in ‘Gompyo Wheat Beer’ Supply Chain

By Heejeong (Hollie) Park

  • A legal conflict over the brewing method has emerged between Seven Broi Brewery, the former manufacturer, and Daehan Flour Mills, the trademark holder.
  • The court’s decision on Seven Broi Brewery’s injunction request could impact the production and sale of Gompyo Wheat Beer, with a competitor ready to enter the market.
  • This incident falls under the category of ‘Anti-competitive Practices’ risks, and currently, Daehan Flour Mills’ company risk is rated at a medium level of 1.3.

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Jun 22
0

Daily Brief South Korea: SK Biopharmaceuticals Co Ltd, Hyundai Elevator Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Interesting Changes Emerging
  • Hyundai Elevator Chairwoman Hyun Seeks Capital from H&Q Korea

KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Interesting Changes Emerging

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the September rebalance ends on 31 July, the changes will be announced towards end August and implemented at the close of trading on 7 September.
  • There is one change currently for each of the Secondary Battery, Bio, Internet and Game indices. Plus there are a couple of changes for the BBIG indices.
  • SK Biopharmaceuticals Co Ltd (326030 KS) has overtaken SK Bioscience (302440 KS) on average market cap and there will be large flows on both stocks at the rebalance.

Hyundai Elevator Chairwoman Hyun Seeks Capital from H&Q Korea

By Douglas Kim

  • It was reported in the local media that Hyundai Elevator Chairwoman Hyun Jeong-Eun is close to completing a deal with H&Q Korea in a deal worth nearly 300 billion won.
  • The three major reasons driving higher share price of Hyundai Elevator in the last three months include share buyback/cancellation, potential M&A, and solid 1Q 2023 results.
  • With noticeable downturn in the Korean construction sector, Hyundai Elevator could face worsening industry prospects for both residential and commercial elevators in the next 12-24 months in Korea.

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Jun 21
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Ecopro Co Ltd, Dentium, Doosan Bobcat Inc, CJ CGV Co Ltd, Coupang and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • StubWorld: EcoPro Continues To Defy Logic
  • KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: A Busy December Rebalance
  • Doosan Bobcat Placement – Past Deals Have Been Mixed but the Stock Has Been Doing Well
  • Exploring Two Lucrative Arbitrage Trading Opportunities in CJ CGV’s Monumental Rights Offer
  • CJ CGV: A Rights Offering 74.7 Million Shares (Destroying Shareholder Value)
  • Coupang(CPNG US, SELL, TP US$15.1) Rating Change: Facing More Competition from AliExpress,DG to Sell

StubWorld: EcoPro Continues To Defy Logic

By David Blennerhassett

  • EcoPro Co Ltd (086520 KS) has swatted aside analyst downgrades and the indictment of its chairman to touch an all-time high. 
  • Preceding my comments on EcoPro are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: A Busy December Rebalance

By Brian Freitas

  • Just over a quarter of the way through the review period, we see six changes for the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) at the December rebalance.
  • There are a few stocks that are close adds at the current time and a move higher can take them into inclusion zone leading to more deletions.
  • While there is little to no short interest on the potential inclusions, short interest on the potential deletions ranges from 4.3-12.2 days of ADV and 0.5-3.5% of free float.

Doosan Bobcat Placement – Past Deals Have Been Mixed but the Stock Has Been Doing Well

By Sumeet Singh

  • Doosan Enerbility (034020 KS) aims to raise around US$220m via selling around 4.9% of Doosan Bobcat Inc (241560 KS) .
  • This will be the third selldown in the company in less than a year with the previous two deals in Nov 22 and May 23 having delivered mixed results
  • In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on other deal dynamics.

Exploring Two Lucrative Arbitrage Trading Opportunities in CJ CGV’s Monumental Rights Offer

By Sanghyun Park

  • A capital increase event of this size allows for a classic arbitrage trading strategy involving the acquisition of subscription rights and the simultaneous sale of an equal amount of SSF.
  • We can aim to profit from the price movements between warrants and SSF during the warrants trading period by getting out of the positions before the trading period ends.
  • We will also likely encounter a significantly juicy price difference between warrants+subscription and SSF, given a discount rate of 25% with an enormous capital increase rate, 

CJ CGV: A Rights Offering 74.7 Million Shares (Destroying Shareholder Value)

By Douglas Kim

  • CJ CGV announced a massive capital increase plan of nearly 1 trillion won which includes a rights offering of 570 billion won and 450 billion won of in-kind investments.
  • This capital increase is likely to negatively impact CJ CGV’s share price in the coming months. Through this capital raise, the existing shareholders are likely to be diluted significantly. 
  • The expected rights offering price is 7,630 won, which is 47% discount to its current price.

Coupang(CPNG US, SELL, TP US$15.1) Rating Change: Facing More Competition from AliExpress,DG to Sell

By Shawn Yang

  • AliExpress has prioritized South Korea. We expect AliExpress’ South Korea GMV to increase 150%~ YoY to about US 1bn in 2023, or about 3% of Coupang’s. 
  • We found that AliExpress has more overlap with CPNG’s key products rather than Naver. The average price of recommended items on AliExpress was 65%~ cheaper than CPNG in our sample; 
  • We lower our CPNG GMV est. by 2%/3% in 2023/2024. We downgrade CPNG to SELL and lower its TP to US$ 15.1. 

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Jun 20
0

Daily Brief South Korea: LG Energy Solution, Alteogen Inc, Ottogi Corporation, CJ Logistics and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Two Trading Opportunities from LG Chem’s Stake Sale in LG Energy Solution
  • LG Chem: Considering a Block Deal Sale of About 2 Trillion Won of LG Energy Solution: A Big Overhang
  • Alteogen (196170 KS): Milestone Payments and Pipeline Progress Strengthen Business Growth Prospect
  • Ottogi Corp: Strong Financial Growth and an Environmental Champion
  • Catching Up With CJ Logistics (000120 KS): With Shares Beaten Down, Management Forced to Refocus

Two Trading Opportunities from LG Chem’s Stake Sale in LG Energy Solution

By Sanghyun Park

  • This issue offers two trading opportunities. The first is the passive inflow resulting from an increase in the float rate. The second is the possibility of additional stake sales.
  • It will provide LG Energy with a passive inflow of 760K shares (₩426.4 billion), which is a significant passive impact at approximately 3.2x ADTV.
  • There would be further stake sales of LG Chem’s shares in LG Energy. LG Chem plans to pursue additional stake sales targeting local institutional investors.

LG Chem: Considering a Block Deal Sale of About 2 Trillion Won of LG Energy Solution: A Big Overhang

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 16 June, it was reported in the local media that LG Chem is close to selling about 2 trillion won worth of LG Energy Solution.
  • This block deal sale is likely to pose overhang on more stake sales of LG Energy Solution (about 10% stake) in the next 3-5 years.
  • Our NAV valuation analysis of LG Chem suggests an implied price of 1,057,770 won per share, which is 41% higher than current share price.

Alteogen (196170 KS): Milestone Payments and Pipeline Progress Strengthen Business Growth Prospect

By Tina Banerjee

  • Alteogen Inc (196170 KS)‘s partner has submitted marketing application for Herceptin biosimilar in China. Alteogen will be entitled for royalty after the product is approved and sold in China.  
  • In April 2023, Alteogen announced that the company will receive additional milestone of $3 million (~KRW4 billion) from its first ALT-B4 technology transfer partner.
  • Alteogen has completed patient recruitment for global phase 3 trial for Eylea biosimilar. Marketing application is expected to be filed in early 2024, with marketing expected to start from 1H25.

Ottogi Corp: Strong Financial Growth and an Environmental Champion

By Heejeong (Hollie) Park

  • Ottogi Corporation not only achieved remarkable revenue and net income growth in 2022, but also maintained an ESG rating of A for five consecutive years.
  • Ottogi demonstrates strong sustainability performance, with high scores in “Environment Policy”, “Chemical Management”, and “Human Rights, Shared Growth & Community”.
  • Ottogi’s 10-year dedication to environmental management is evidenced by tangible data, demonstrating remarkable achievements in the management of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, energy usage, water consumption, and waste recycling.

Catching Up With CJ Logistics (000120 KS): With Shares Beaten Down, Management Forced to Refocus

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Previously, we criticized CJ Logistics as unfocused, pursuing deals in low-margin segments around the world as if to fill a logistics ‘Bingo!’ card rather than in-line with a rational strategy
  • In recent years, investors have punished the company’s shares, which have fallen by more than half since reaching a high of over 184,000 won per share in March 2021. 
  • However, with management de-emphasizing its Global segment and focusing instead on the more promising Parcel / E-commerce line of business, there is cause for optimism, in our view

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Jun 19
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Celltrion Healthcare and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS): Portfolio Enhancement to Drive Business Growth

Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS): Portfolio Enhancement to Drive Business Growth

By Tina Banerjee

  • Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS) is expected to launch Humira biosimilar, Yuflyma, in the U.S. market in July 2023. Despite heavy competition, as high-concentration citrate-free formulation, Yuflyma has competitive edge.
  • In April 2023, Celltrion has launched bevacizumab biosimilar, Vegzelma in the U.S. Vegzelma will be the first product that the company will be directly selling in the U.S.
  • Through portfolio expansion, Celltrion increased target market size to $53.7B in 2023 from $20.6B in 2020, representing 161% growth. For 2024, the target market is expected to increase to $91.3B.

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