Category

Japan

Japan: Bewith, Yaskawa Electric and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • TOPIX Inclusion: Bewith (9216 JP)
  • Yaskawa – Results as We Expected, Guidance Much Stronger

TOPIX Inclusion: Bewith (9216 JP)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • Japan-Based BPO company Bewith (9216 JP) was listed in the First Section (now known as the “Prime” Market) of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) on 2nd March 2022.
  • When a company gets listed in the TSE First Section, it subsequently gets included in the TOPIX Index requiring TOPIX-tracking funds to purchase the stock during an Inclusion Event.
  • Usually, this presents interesting trading opportunities to generate sharp market-neutral returns in the space of few trading days. Below is a look at the details for Bewith’s Inclusion Event.

Yaskawa – Results as We Expected, Guidance Much Stronger

By Mio Kato

  • Yaskawa reported weak results as we expected (¥12.9bn OP vs. our ~¥14bn estimate and consensus at ¥16.7bn). 
  • Despite this the company actually guided for a very punchy ¥72bn in OP next FY even above consensus’ ¥65.5bn and our expectation for OP to be flattish or even decline. 
  • Nevertheless, there was nothing on the earnings call to suggest that guidance was anything more than overoptimism on the top line.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Japan: Softbank Group, Nikon Corp, Seven & I Holdings, Softbank Corp, Yaskawa Electric, JTEKT Corp, Torikizoku and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Softbank – Transfer of Arm China Shares Does Nothing But Raise Red Flags
  • BIG Nikon (7731) Buyback – OK But Should Do Better
  • Seven & I: A Lot Left in Speedway Synergies
  • Softbank Corp (Buy) – Growth/Value Hybrid Has Been Left Behind by Telco Peers
  • Nikon (7731) | Focusing on the 4 Year View
  • Yaskawa – We Expect a Slight Miss and Tepid Guidance
  • Japan’s Governance: Article on the Composition of the Board of Directors of JTEKT Corporation (6473)
  • Torikizoku Holdings (3193): Healthy Performance in March Despite Difficult Environment

Softbank – Transfer of Arm China Shares Does Nothing But Raise Red Flags

By Mio Kato

  • Caixin confirmed today that Arm had transferred its shares in its China JV to a special purpose vehicle which it owns together with Softbank, as the FT had initially flagged. 
  • This could technically eliminate the obstacles to an audit for an IPO but we believe regulators would be remiss in allowing such a flimsy change to pass muster. 
  • In addition, the move reeks of desperation for cash and Softbank’s typical disregard for prudence and the importance of due diligence to investors.

BIG Nikon (7731) Buyback – OK But Should Do Better

By Travis Lundy

  • Nikon Corp (7731 JP) today announced a Very Large Buyback. This is the third buyback it has announced since spring 2019. The first was short. The next two big.
  • The company also announced a new Medium-Term Management Plan for FY2022-2025 today in which they reiterated their existing Shareholder Return Policy of 40+% payout of stable dividends and opportunistic buybacks. 
  • It’s a decent div, and the buyback is for 6-7% of shares out, but it could do better. The company is hugely cash- and securities holdings-rich. It should do better.

Seven & I: A Lot Left in Speedway Synergies

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Even though the results weren’t a blowout as we expected, today’s price performance suggests that Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) has not disappointed the market.
  • We think Seven & I could be playing safe by holding back Speedway synergies.
  • After a short breather, share price momentum has shifted positive and we expect this to continue alongside upgrades to Speedway synergy estimates.

Softbank Corp (Buy) – Growth/Value Hybrid Has Been Left Behind by Telco Peers

By Kirk Boodry

  • Softbank Corp (9434 JP) shares have underperformed telco peers that benefit from a risk-off environment despite a sector-high dividend payout as 38% of value comes from Internet and fintech
  • That dividend payout looks safe across our forecast period though as the telco business provides sufficient free cash and parent Softbank Group (9984 JP) can always use more cash
  • At Q3, management reiterated confidence in financial guidance through FY22 and a positive Z Holdings (4689 JP) Q4 report could help shares make up lost ground 

Nikon (7731) | Focusing on the 4 Year View

By Mark Chadwick

  • The new four-year medium-term strategy that lays out a realistic route to greater profitability and growth.
  • The stock has been trading below book value for years
  • Buying back 10% of outstanding shares will give investors confidence 

Yaskawa – We Expect a Slight Miss and Tepid Guidance

By Mio Kato

  • Yaskawa reports today and we expect earnings and guidance to both be on the weak side. 
  • The stock has been weak of late but we still lean towards the idea that there is a little downside risk remaining. 
  • The key question is whether the market attaches any credibility to consensus projections of 15% YoY OP growth next FY.

Japan’s Governance: Article on the Composition of the Board of Directors of JTEKT Corporation (6473)

By Aki Matsumoto

  • I considered the article reported by Nikkei, “Halving the Number of In-House Directors to Three, Equal to Outside Directors. It was misleading because it didn’t consider the board composition.
  • This change in the board composition is merely a measure to meet the listing criteria of prime market means and will not immediately lead to improved transparency of the board.
  • It must be said that there are numerous issues to be improved for the Company, looking into the corporate practices in detail of the company.

Torikizoku Holdings (3193): Healthy Performance in March Despite Difficult Environment

By Mita Securities

  • Same-store sales were 126.7% vs. March 2021 (112.8% for February), 70.2% vs. March 2020 (36.9% for February), and 58.9% vs. March 2019 (39.1% for February)
  • The number of stores at the end of March was 615 (unchanged MoM). The number of directly owned stores was 384 (unchanged MoM).
  • The company plans to open Torikizoku Hibiya Store in Yurakucho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, on April 11.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Japan: Toshiba Corp, Takeda Pharmaceutical, Kura Sushi Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Toshiba (6502) – 3D Writes Another Letter
  • Toshiba – 3D At It Again
  • Takeda Strengthens Rare Disease Portfolio Through Tie-Ups with Gene Therapy Developers
  • Kura Sushi (2695): Conan & Crab Popular in March; Kura Sushi Is Becoming a Food Amusement Park

Toshiba (6502) – 3D Writes Another Letter

By Travis Lundy

  • On 24 March, the EGM defeated both company and 3D Investment proposals. That night, a leak in the Nikkei said the company would pursue privatisation measures. Supply side interest. Check. 
  • That same day, Bain signed a “Confirmation Agreement” with lead Toshiba shareholder Effissimo would tender into a Bain Tender Offer. Demand Side interest confirmed. Check. 
  • Now we have a 3D public letter to the Board demanding 3 measures before the AGM. 

Toshiba – 3D At It Again

By Mio Kato

  • 3D Investment Partners has sent another open letter to Toshiba’s Board of Directors once again pushing for privatisation options. 
  • Once again, the fund’s claims and demands come across as rather shrill and potentially desperate. 
  • 3D’s behaviour is a stark contrast with other activists who have been quieter and more skilful and could be the biggest risk to Toshiba in our view.

Takeda Strengthens Rare Disease Portfolio Through Tie-Ups with Gene Therapy Developers

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) has been aggressively expanding its rare disease portfolio following recent hiccups in its development pipeline through Tie-Ups with different gene therapy developers.
  • Rare diseases biz is the second largest business segment for Takeda generating about 17.1% of total revenues for the company.
  • Takeda’s share price started plunging after suspending a phase 2 study of TAK-994 in October 2021 and price started moving up since January and we think there is further upside.

Kura Sushi (2695): Conan & Crab Popular in March; Kura Sushi Is Becoming a Food Amusement Park

By Mita Securities

  • March SSS: 106.3% vs. 2021, 103.7% vs. 2019 (pre-pandemic)

  • Same-store sales of other revolving sushi formats in March (compared to March 2021 and March 2019) were 93.5% and 96.8% for Sushiro (Food & Life Companies), 104.4% and 89.9% for Genki Sushi, and 89.7% and 82.2% for Kappa Sushi, respectively

  • The number of stores at the end of February was 510 in Japan (+3 MoM), 37 in the U.S. (+1 MoM), and 45 in Taiwan (+1 MoM). The total number of stores was 592 (+5 MoM)


Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Japan: Money Forward, Cosmo Energy Holdings, Beenos Inc, Honda Motor, Torii Pharmaceutical, Ohsho Food Service, J Front Retailing and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • The TOPIX Liquidity Factor Adjustment – Still a Trade To Do
  • Activist Murakami-San Goes Substantial on Cosmo Oil (5021)
  • GoTo May Not Be So Expensive, If You Own It Through Beenos
  • Honda – Expanding EV Partnership With GM
  • Japan’s Governance: Articles About Torii Pharmaceutical’s AGM (2)
  • Ohsho Food Service (9936): Record High Sales for March. Full-Year Sales Exceed the Company’s Target
  • J-Front (3086) | Recent Datapoints Point to High-End Shoppers Loosening the Purse Strings

The TOPIX Liquidity Factor Adjustment – Still a Trade To Do

By Travis Lundy

  • Every year in April there are two TOPIX rebalance changes – the FFW review for July-September FY-end companies, and the annual liquidity factor adjustments.
  • This year, the former is replaced by the TOPIX FFW Methodology Change for the new Market Structure. This is a big change, but it will not necessarily overwhelm the latter.
  • Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA‘s piece of 5 weeks ago discussing the Liquidity Factor basket has seen generally good performance. There are two days to go. 

Activist Murakami-San Goes Substantial on Cosmo Oil (5021)

By Travis Lundy

  • Four weeks ago, the sovereign wealth fund of the UAE sold out of a 15% position in Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP) they’d held for 15yrs. 
  • Today we see noted Japanese activist Murakami Yoshiaki and affiliates have purchased 5+% of the company, including a large chunk the day after the block trade.
  • Oftentimes he buys stakes in industries where consolidation is overdue and/or natural. Construction has been one such sector. Refiners probably need consolidation too, but it’s not clear it’s easy here.

GoTo May Not Be So Expensive, If You Own It Through Beenos

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Beenos Inc (3328 JP) is a relatively small cross-border e-commerce and internet company from Japan with a consolidated GMV of ¥64.7bn last year.
  • The company also runs an incubator platform to create new businesses and invest in start-ups mainly in emerging regions such as India and South-East Asia.
  • Down below, we analyse the impact on Beenos’ valuation following GOTO’s impending IPO of which Beenos owns 0.5%.

Honda – Expanding EV Partnership With GM

By Mio Kato

  • Honda and GM announced today that they would further expand their partnership on EV technologies.
  • A new EV series will be produced for North America by 2027 and the two companies will collaborate on advanced battery technologies.
  • This is an incremental positive for Honda and GM but the array of partnerships Honda is creating points to a lack of decisiveness on its part.

Japan’s Governance: Articles About Torii Pharmaceutical’s AGM (2)

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Torii Pharmaceutical rejected a shareholder proposal at its AGM to prohibit “revolving door” appointments of people from JT to the board of directors and to disclose the cost of capital.
  • The Company disclosed the propriety of opposing these shareholder proposals, but this was not understood to be a sufficient explanation.
  • Will the Company eventually terminate its parent-subsidiary listing if it does not meet the prime market listing criteria for governance?

Ohsho Food Service (9936): Record High Sales for March. Full-Year Sales Exceed the Company’s Target

By Mita Securities

  • Ohsho Food Service (9936, the company) disclosed monthly data for its directly-owned stores for March (on a preliminary basis)
  • FY3/22 full-year sales for its directly-owned stores were 77.2bn yen on an all-store basis (104.9% vs. FY3/21), and 74.9bn yen on a same-store basis (103.1% vs. FY3/21)
  • In March, the company opened one new store (one directly-owned store) and closed no store

J-Front (3086) | Recent Datapoints Point to High-End Shoppers Loosening the Purse Strings

By Mark Chadwick

  • J-Front Retailing, a Japanese department store operator, will announce full-year results on April 11.
  • We expect FY2/23 guidance to be more optimistic as Japan normalises post COVID. 
  • Pent up demand for luxury goods to drive recovery of department stores. J-Front is still trading below book value.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Japan: Tokyo Century Corp, Softbank Group, Seven & I Holdings, Fujitsu Ltd, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, Skylark Co Ltd, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Fast Fitness Japan Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • MSCI Japan Index Rebalance Preview: Only Deletions for Now
  • Softbank Group – Early Read on Q4 Portfolio Performance
  • Seven & I: Going Strong in Overseas, Another Beat On the Cards
  • Fujitsu (6702 JP): At Risk of Short-Term Profit Taking
  • Japan’s Governance: About an Article on Resignation of Taking Responsibility
  • Skylark Holdings (3197): March Sales Negatively Affected by Omicron Again
  • Mitsubishi Heavy (7011) | Helping the World to Transition to a Cleaner and More Secure Energy Future
  • Fast Fitness Japan (7092): Reiterate Buy While Lowering TP on Model Adjustment.

MSCI Japan Index Rebalance Preview: Only Deletions for Now

By Brian Freitas

  • As of the close on 1 April, we see 13 potential deletions from the MSCI Japan Index. There could be changes in the next couple of weeks as prices change.
  • The potential deletions are Tokyo Century, Pola Orbis, Miura, Lion Corp, Tsuruha Holdings, Hino Motors, Benefit One, Stanley Electric, Ryohin Keikaku, Sohgo Security Services, Orix JREIT, Rinnai Corp and Lawson. 
  • Most of the stocks will have over 5 days of ADV to sell from passive funds and there has been an increase in short interest over the last month.

Softbank Group – Early Read on Q4 Portfolio Performance

By Kirk Boodry

  • Vision Fund’s public portfolio dropped $18.6bn (-24%) in Q4. China concerns grabbed headlines but it was Asian names (Coupang, Grab) that drove losses
  • Public investments held at the parent level fell 41% (-$1.3bn), led by SoFi (-$862mn), Lemonade (-$189mn) and THG (-$147mn) 
  • We expect that Softbank will also need to write down private investments although it is not clear just how far private valuations have tracked public changes

Seven & I: Going Strong in Overseas, Another Beat On the Cards

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • After raising full-year guidance in 3QFY22 due to stronger than expected performance in the overseas business, Seven & I is scheduled to release the fourth-quarter results on 7th April 2022.
  • Domestic performance has been relatively stable, but 7-Eleven Inc should outperform expectations in the US through the yen depreciation and rising fuel retail margins.
  • Thus, we would buy Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) leading up to earnings expecting substantial upside on a potentially large earnings beat.

Fujitsu (6702 JP): At Risk of Short-Term Profit Taking

By Scott Foster

  • The shares have rebounded by nearly 30% since the 1st of February. Consolidation seems likely while waiting for evidence that management’s sales and profit targets can be met.
  • As Japan’s No. 1 IT services company, Fujitsu should benefit from the ongoing digitalization of Japan’s public and private sectors, the roll-out of 5G and the development of 6G.
  • Risks for investors include the weakening yen and economic slowdown. A history of IT system failures also raises a red flag.

Japan’s Governance: About an Article on Resignation of Taking Responsibility

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Nikkei carried an article titled “Toshiba, Mizuho, and Mitsubishi Electric Lighten Up on Censure Resignations without Renewal Power.” I would like to touch on the points discussed in the article.
  • Although the goal should be to take responsibility for scandals and to put a clean slate in place, there have been resignations that show delays in decision-making and lackadaisical succession system.
  • It shows only the form of board practices changes, but nothing changes on the inside and that scandals are repeated. Why do scandals repeat themselves are discussed in “Repeated Scandals”.

Skylark Holdings (3197): March Sales Negatively Affected by Omicron Again

By Mita Securities

  • Skylark HD (3197, the company) disclosed monthly data for March (on a preliminary basis)
  • Same-store sales were 99.0% vs. March 2021 (93.0% for February), 92.8% vs. March 2020, and 71.0% vs. March 2019
  • In March, the company opened one new store. The number of stores at the end of March was 3,094 (-3 MoM)

Mitsubishi Heavy (7011) | Helping the World to Transition to a Cleaner and More Secure Energy Future

By Mark Chadwick

  • MHI benefits from the structural themes of energy security and carbon neutrality
  • MHI’s Energy Systems account for over 60% of operating profits
  • The inevitable push to restart nuclear plants in Japan will be a catalyst for the share price

Fast Fitness Japan (7092): Reiterate Buy While Lowering TP on Model Adjustment.

By Mita Securities

  • We update our earnings forecast and valuation model for Fast Fitness Japan (7092, FFJ, the company) and lower our target price to 2,650 yen
  • We changed our OP forecasts from 2.8bn yen to 2.9bn yen (+26.5% YoY; OPM 22.6%; company guidance 2.6bn yen) for FY3/22
  • In calculating our target price of 2,650 yen, we used a residual income model (RIM) with a cost of equity of 7.0% (previously 5.5%) and a terminal growth rate of 3.0% (previously 3.5%), based on our earnings forecasts for FY3/22-FY3/27

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Japan: Fast Retailing, Tokyu Fudosan Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Fast Retailing Faces a Severe Test from Beijing to Moscow
  • Japan’s Governance: About an Article On “Capital Efficiency”

Fast Retailing Faces a Severe Test from Beijing to Moscow

By Mark Chadwick

  • We estimate that China accounts for almost 40% of Fast Retailing’s earnings. This growth engine is stalling
  • The market has yet to discount these risks, despite warnings from H&M
  • The stock is down 5% YTD, but trades at an 80% premium to global peers

Japan’s Governance: About an Article On “Capital Efficiency”

By Aki Matsumoto

  • I discuss an article that mentions that Tokyu Fudosan’s profitability improvement from the sale of its subsidiary was limited and that the profitability is inferior to that of competitors.
  • Its low profitability may be due to the company’s ability to manage its business portfolio and the speed at which it is transforming it.
  • Not only is there a problem with disclosure in inability to successfully communicate growth policy to investors, but it also appears that Board of Directors has some issues as well.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Japan: Daiho Corp, Canon Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Daiho Post-Div STILL Trading Too Rich For the Event Trade
  • Sticking With Cyclical Value and Defensives; Adding Large-Cap Japan Technology

Daiho Post-Div STILL Trading Too Rich For the Event Trade

By Travis Lundy

  • 10 days ago, Daiho Corp (1822 JP) announced an exit for Murakami-san who had gone from zero to 42% of voting rights buying 18% of volume over two years.
  • They found a kind of white knight to buy the shares Murakami-san wanted to sell. The structure looks “fair” but is not. Almost all investors are now buying through terms.
  • And the result looks expensive with a rather unfortunate forward flow profile. 

Sticking With Cyclical Value and Defensives; Adding Large-Cap Japan Technology

By Joe Jasper

  • The lows have likely been established for this correction, but a bottoming process would likely take weeks or potentially months and could come with more tests of the lows.
  • Japan’s TOPIX and Nikkei 225 are each testing their respective downtrends. The EURO STOXX 50 is testing resistance in the 4040-4090 range. Germany’s DAX is testing major resistance at 14,815-14,950.
  • It is likely that this initial 2-3 week bounce has run its course; stick with cyclical value and defensives, areas we have been focused on for most of 2022.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Japan: Shinsei Bank, Toyo Construction and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Nikkei 225 Rebalance Day – Shinsei Dip Chance?
  • Toyo Construction (1890) Funkier Still

Nikkei 225 Rebalance Day – Shinsei Dip Chance?

By Travis Lundy

  • The Nikkei 225 Rebalance to boot Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) and add Orix Corp (8591 JP) occurs today at the close. 
  • The announcement was not a surprise per se, but BOTH have outperformed their Peer Baskets since the announcement, ORIX by a long ways.
  • ORIX is a bigger deal, Shinsei is worth buying a dip.

Toyo Construction (1890) Funkier Still

By Travis Lundy

  • Toyo Construction (1890 JP) situation changes day by day. In three days we have three Large Shareholder Report filings as The Expected Activist ducked out, replaced by A New Entrant.
  • Now one has to consider what the rest of this week has looked like.
  • And we wonder who it is, but reading between the lines can get you to a place where one might see what the aim is. 

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Japan: Toshiba Corp, Toyo Construction, Ono Pharmaceutical and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Toshiba (6502) – Effissimo’s Pledge Isn’t One. It Is a Signalling Device.
  • Toyo Construction (1890) Tender Still Funky – A New (Perhaps Serious), but Secretive Large Holder
  • Japan’s Governance: Ono Pharmaceutical (4528) ESG Briefing

Toshiba (6502) – Effissimo’s Pledge Isn’t One. It Is a Signalling Device.

By Travis Lundy


Toyo Construction (1890) Tender Still Funky – A New (Perhaps Serious), but Secretive Large Holder

By Travis Lundy

  • After Murakami-san reported yesterday selling most of his shares on 23 March, the stock fell heavily today. From 6.7% above terms to 0.65% above terms. 
  • 6.5 mm shares changed hands today at less than a 1% premium to terms.
  • After the close, a Cayman company, “WK 1 Limited”, announced it had two affiliates owned 5.89% as of 24-March. Still funky. Still fun. Bet it pops now.

Japan’s Governance: Ono Pharmaceutical (4528) ESG Briefing

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The corporate governance efforts are making gradual progress, and I appreciate the company’s disclosure of issues, but I would like to see it become more proactive.
  • Policy shareholding is one of its biggest challenges. Establishing a path for reducing the shareholdings and disclosing and showing progress in doing so shows that it is addressing the issue.
  • Good progress has been made on the protection of environment. Regarding the expansion of human capital, the initiative has only just begun and is expected further efforts in the future.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Japan: Toyo Construction, Japan Tobacco, Sony Corp, Nintendo Co Ltd, Hazama Ando, Toyota Motor, Nippo Corp, Onward Holdings, Poplar Co Ltd, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Toyo Construction (1890) Tender Situation Indeed Getting Funky
  • Japan Tobacco 2022 High Conviction Update: Time to Double Down
  • Sony – New PlayStation Plus Plans Illustrate Overwhelming Superiority Vs. XBox
  • Nintendo – Take Profit
  • Hazama Ando (1719 JP) – Big Buyback Is Set & Forget
  • Toyota – Feb Production Numbers Suggest The Corner Has Been Turned
  • JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance 2022: Leaderboard End-Mar 2022
  • Onward: Moving to Showroom Stores and Click & Collect by 2024
  • Poplar Launches Unmanned Stores but Independence Still Under Threat
  • Japan’s Governance: Transitional Companies in the Prime Market: To Increase Valuations

Toyo Construction (1890) Tender Situation Indeed Getting Funky

By Travis Lundy

  • Toyo Construction (1890 JP)‘s Independent Committee thought this deal was being done too cheaply, but they signed off on it. I thought it was cheap too. 
  • I thought that a leading activist in the name would think so too, and try his hand because of his running start of 7+%. Huge volume Day1 sparked wider interest.
  • It has traded every day so far above terms so far but on the first full day of trading, the activist Murakami-san bailed. That changes things, but… it’s still funky.

Japan Tobacco 2022 High Conviction Update: Time to Double Down

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • It seems investors are starting to move past the fears of Japan Tobacco’s exposure to Russia and Ukraine with shares rising 6% following a steep decline alongside Russia’s Ukraine invasion.
  • Meanwhile, we expect the company’s OP to continue trending upwards with the weakening yen helping the International Tobacco segment and price hikes benefiting the Domestic business.
  • If OP reaches the 2014 level, we think Japan Tobacco (2914 JP) shares could go up around 90% to ¥4,000 per share over the next 12 months.

Sony – New PlayStation Plus Plans Illustrate Overwhelming Superiority Vs. XBox

By Mio Kato

  • Yesterday Sony officially announced the new structure for its popular PlayStation Plus service with three tiers including some streaming options. 
  • The details had been mostly leaked already and there were no major surprises but pricing looked extremely reasonable. 
  • Below we compare the plans against Xbox Game Pass and explain why this demonstrates a far better understanding of the industry on Sony’s part.

Nintendo – Take Profit

By Mio Kato

  • Nintendo is up 25.2% since we turned genuinely bullish on the name at the end of Nov. 
  • The weakening yen has helped significantly and should lead to a small overshoot on the dividend as well. 
  • However, they just announced a delay of the Breath of the Wild sequel and we think this is a good time to take profit.

Hazama Ando (1719 JP) – Big Buyback Is Set & Forget

By Travis Lundy

  • Hazama Ando spent a long time coming out of its doldrums. In February 2020, it started to improve. It started a buyback, scarfing up 22% of volume in 6 weeks.
  • Later in 2020, another, and in 2021, another still, now with the last one finished in a hurry, they announced another. They’ve bought back stock 17 months in a row.
  • It’s not clear the master rules of the buyback, but historically they have been reasonably aggressive. I expect that continues.

Toyota – Feb Production Numbers Suggest The Corner Has Been Turned

By Mio Kato

  • Toyota announced record overseas production in February putting up a data point to suggest supply chain issues are genuinely easing. 
  • March is likely to prove more challenging due to some production stoppages but the trend looks clear. 
  • That it comes at a time when the yen is weak and oil prices encourage hybrid demand is an additional boon for Toyota.

JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance 2022: Leaderboard End-Mar 2022

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents.
  • A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. We look at the potential forward inclusions and removals every month.
  • Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to come in August 2022 based on trading data as of end-March 2022.

Onward: Moving to Showroom Stores and Click & Collect by 2024

By Michael Causton

  • Onward is proving adept at moving sales online even as its turnover drops dramatically as it restructures and slashes old stores – some 1,700 stores in two years. 
  • It now wants to integrate the remaining stores better with online and targets 50% of sales from e-commerce within three years.
  • This won’t be enough to offset lost sales at department stores but should mean improving returns for long-term investors.

Poplar Launches Unmanned Stores but Independence Still Under Threat

By Michael Causton

  • Poplar is one of the few remaining small CVS chains in Japan and is struggling.
  • It is now trying a new format of mini stores to take merchandise to the customer.
  • This may not be enough and it will likely cede more of its stores to Lawson.

Japan’s Governance: Transitional Companies in the Prime Market: To Increase Valuations

By Aki Matsumoto

  • This article focuses on valuation as a factor in increasing market capitalization and examines what efforts were made by the companies whose Tobin’s q increased.
  • Companies with large increases in Tobin’s q made notable improvements in % independent directors and independence of compensation committee . The elimination of anti-takeover also helped boost Tobin’s q.
  • Regarding key actions, companies with large increase in valuation could clarify balance between investment in growth and shareholder returns in capital allocation and work on communication with investors in disclosure.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma