Japan

In today’s briefing:

Sumitomo Precision Products (6355) Buyout by Sumitomo Corp – Likely To Get Done
Selling Sogo Seibu Doesn’t Mean Seven & I Will Sell Ito-Yokado
Conflicts of Interest Prevent TSE from Resolving Prime Market Listing Criteria Issues

Sumitomo Precision Products (6355) Buyout by Sumitomo Corp – Likely To Get Done

On Friday, Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP) announced a bid for equity affiliate (they own 27+% but Nippon Steel 15%, top 2 is 40+%) Sumitomo Precision Products (6355 JP).
It’s a one-year high and 4-year high price, and 8x average 10yr EV/EBITDA but 4.6x 2024e EBITDA from the Mid Term Plan. And way below a 10-year high.
This gets done if Retail agrees to the tender. If 50% put in, that should do it. So I expect this gets done.

Selling Sogo Seibu Doesn’t Mean Seven & I Will Sell Ito-Yokado

By Michael Causton

Seven & I has at last agreed to sell the ailing Sogo Seibu chain – although not for enough to offset years of investment with little to show for it.
Some hope that this means the start of a house cleaning exercise to rid the group of its multiple under-performing retail assets, leaving a gleaming exemplar of rational efficiency.
This is unlikely, especially for the original Ito-Yokado general merchandise chain and a problem given the lack of growth potential in the group’s domestic business.

Conflicts of Interest Prevent TSE from Resolving Prime Market Listing Criteria Issues

For companies applying transitional measures, it was an opportunity to attract investor attention and consider what is listing. This should serve as an opportunity to promote metabolism of listed companies.
Listing fees are set at the highest rates for prime market, so if the number of prime market companies decreases, TSE revenues will decrease. A conflict of interest has arisen.
With such a conflict of interest at TSE, it is unlikely that the contradiction between the prime market concept and listing criteria that many market participants perceive can be resolved.

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Nov 13

Daily Brief Japan: Toshiba Corp and more

In today’s briefing:

Weekly Deals Digest (13 Nov) – Toshiba, Uzabase, Origin Energy, Perpetual, Golden Energy, I-Tail

Weekly Deals Digest (13 Nov) – Toshiba, Uzabase, Origin Energy, Perpetual, Golden Energy, I-Tail

By Arun George

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments – I-Tail (ITC TB) is set to launch it’s up to US$600 million SET IPO.
Event-Driven developments – Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), Uzabase Inc (3966 JP), Golden Energy & Resources (GER SP), Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)/Pendal Group (PDL AU), Origin Energy (ORG AU).

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Nov 12

Daily Brief Japan: Toshiba Corp, iShares MSCI ACWI ex US ETF, Lasertec Corp, Seven & I Holdings, Softbank Group, Rakuten Inc, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

In today’s briefing:

Toshiba – Worse Than Even We Thought
Positive Character Changes; MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, STOXX 50, Countless Others Reversing Downtrends
Lasertec(6920): Tailwinds Intensify – From ASML Outlook Upgrade to Lower Inflation
Seven & I Parts with Sogo & Seibu and Pockets ¥200bn
Softbank Group Q2 22 Results Reaction: Alibaba Gains Offset VF Losses but Buybacks Over
Rakuten (Neutral) – Q3 22 Results Reaction: Mobile Subscriber Losses as Free Users Flee
A Fundamental Discussion of the Nature of Policy Shareholdings Will Be Required

Toshiba – Worse Than Even We Thought

By Mio Kato

Toshiba’s 2Q results were not pretty with OP of just ¥7.5bn despite strong revenues of ¥855bn, weak orders and a downward revision to guidance as we predicted.
While we expected weakness, every downside risk we flagged came through and in greater force than we had predicted.
It is almost as if some divine force completely unrelated to management is hinting that you should go for the JIP bid if and when it comes through.

Positive Character Changes; MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, STOXX 50, Countless Others Reversing Downtrends

By Joe Jasper

The bear market rally we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int’l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were the YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.
As you will see below, many countries are reversing topside their 6.5-month to YTD downtrends.
As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral. Buy on pullbacks.

Lasertec(6920): Tailwinds Intensify – From ASML Outlook Upgrade to Lower Inflation

By Mark Chadwick

ASML pre-released their updated view on demand and capacity – ahead of Nov 11, 2022 Investor Day – BETTER THAN EXPECTED
Inflation now past peak and semi/tech likely see sustained bid. Even better for those names that are monopolies in the EUV space = ASML and Lasertec
Remain bullish Lasertec despite the recent rally. Better earnings and order outlook, and multiples to drive share price

Seven & I Parts with Sogo & Seibu and Pockets ¥200bn

Earlier today, Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP)’s board decided to sell the underperforming department store business Sogo Seibu to the SoftBank Group controlled Fortress Investment Group for around ¥200bn.
The sale of Sogo & Seibu looks like a positive development from all angles, but it could be already priced in as the rumours were there from February 2022 onwards.
Meanwhile, there are downside risks to Seven & I shares in the short term from falling gas prices and rising inflation in the US.

Softbank Group Q2 22 Results Reaction: Alibaba Gains Offset VF Losses but Buybacks Over

Alibaba driven gains largely offset record losses from Q1 although this has been widely expected as were updates on the timing of ARM’s IPO from FY22 (Mar23) to calendar 2023
With Q2 losses, Vision Fund is clearly in the red for the first time since Q4 19 driven by downside for both public and private investments
Buybacks are over and what appears to be renewed macro enthusiasm is offset by a stronger yen and a low discount to NAV

Rakuten (Neutral) – Q3 22 Results Reaction: Mobile Subscriber Losses as Free Users Flee

Financial results were largely as expected with good news in fintech on a return to double-digit revenue growth but continued steep losses in mobile
Mobile subscriptions fell by 280K (-9% over two quarters) as users of free plans churned off keeping YoY growth to 2%
The company is keen on the potential once platinum band spectrum is available but that is up to two years away

A Fundamental Discussion of the Nature of Policy Shareholdings Will Be Required

The reduction of policy shareholdings of companies (excluding financials) for March fiscal year end companies was 2.3 trillion yen, about 600 billion yen more than in the previous fiscal year.
It was a special year in which changes in the TSE’s criteria regarding tradable shares included in the market’s listing criteria contributed to the reduction of policy shareholdings.
Going forward, companies will need to discuss the nature of cross-shareholdings based on capital allocation even more than they do now.

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Nov 11

Daily Brief Japan: Uzabase Inc, Mitsubishi Estate and more

In today’s briefing:

Uzabase’s (3966 JP) JPY1,500 Tender Offer from Carlyle
Mitsubishi Estate (8802) – Buyback Announced and Long-Term It’s a Soft Squeeze.

Uzabase’s (3966 JP) JPY1,500 Tender Offer from Carlyle

By Arun George

Uzabase Inc (3966 JP) has recommended Carlyle Group Inc (CG US)’s tender offer of JPY1,500 per share, a 72.2% premium to the undisturbed price (9 November).
The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the offer has been set to meet the 66.67% ownership ratio.
The offer is reasonable. The offer ends on 22 December. Tendering shares represent a 27.94% ownership ratio. At the last close, the gross spread to the offer is 46.9%.

Mitsubishi Estate (8802) – Buyback Announced and Long-Term It’s a Soft Squeeze.

Mitsubishi Estate (8802 JP) reported Q2 earnings today. Domestic revenue and OP in the commercial property and residential businesses were down. International and investment management businesses were up A LOT.
Most of the gains in international business were capital gains, but overall, H1 results were in line with full-year guidance. Condo deliveries are completely in H2.
The company also decided on a ¥100bn buyback. Headline says up to 70mm shares or 5.29% of shares out ex-Treasury. It’ll be 20+ smaller. Details, however, matter.

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Nov 10

Daily Brief Japan: Toshiba Corp, Totoku Electric, Nexon, Yokogawa Electric, Uzabase Inc, Pan Pacific International Holdings and more

In today’s briefing:

Toshiba – Realistic Valuation Disappoints Markets
Super High Premium Buyout for Totoku Electric (5807) By Carlyle
Nexon (3659) | More Buybacks in the Pipeline
Nexon Q3 In-Line-Ish, Underperformance Achievement Unlocked, Buyback Language Odd
Yokogawa Electric (6841 JP): High Energy Prices Point to Further Upside
Uzabase (3966) Agrees to Carlyle Takeover
PPIH: Combating Cost Inflation Through Personal Brands Growth

Toshiba – Realistic Valuation Disappoints Markets

By Mio Kato

The Nikkei reported on Monday that JIP’s bid values Toshiba at roughly ¥2.2trn.
The stock has dropped to a level just below this valuation suggesting some anticipation of a Bain/JIC bid above that valuation.
While that is plausible, the cautiousness of JIP’s bid highlights the fundamental downside risk here in our view.

Super High Premium Buyout for Totoku Electric (5807) By Carlyle

Yesterday, Carlyle announced a buyout of Totoku Electric (5807 JP) at ¥5,660/share, which was a cool 155% premium to Tuesday’s close of ¥2,215. The stock was limit up today.
It will be limit up tomorrow, and the next day. And probably the next day.
This is a very interesting outcome. But it is actually not as expensive as it “looks.”

Nexon (3659) | More Buybacks in the Pipeline

By Mark Chadwick

Nexon is our top pick within the Japanese Gaming Sector
We see continued strong growth in revenue driven by existing game franchises in addition to new pipeline opportunities
Nexon is cash rich, debt free and is returning more and more money back to shareholders

Nexon Q3 In-Line-Ish, Underperformance Achievement Unlocked, Buyback Language Odd

Nexon (3659 JP) reported Q3 earnings and full-year forecasts today. Revenue came in at the bottom end of August guidance, despite the higher-than-forecast USD/yen rate.
The forecast for full-year is below consensus. This may be seen as disappointing. The stock may fall on this.
But a buyback announcement and relative valuation suggests time to cover the short.

Yokogawa Electric (6841 JP): High Energy Prices Point to Further Upside

By Scott Foster

Strong 1H orders and the second upward revision to guidance this fiscal year have lifted the share price to a new high.
The energy shortage and high energy prices should continue to drive demand for Yokogawa’s oil, gas and power related industrial control equipment. Demand from other users is also rising.
Valuations suggest 15% to 20% additional upside potential for the share price. Recession or a strengthening of the yen could put this at risk, so watch the order flow.

Uzabase (3966) Agrees to Carlyle Takeover

Carlyle has launched a bid for business news and data service owner Uzabase Inc (3966 JP). The bid is far below the price of a couple years ago.
But the price clears the 2022 high by 1 tick. Some will be OK with this, but some may not be.
At a 72% premium, optically it appears attractive, but given circumstances, it is not a total knockout, though I don’t know who would come in.

PPIH: Combating Cost Inflation Through Personal Brands Growth

Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)’s 1QFY23 was broadly in line with consensus estimates with revenue and OP of ¥473.7bn (consensus: ¥473.8bn) and ¥23.9bn (consensus: ¥23.8bn) respectively.
Personal brands growth and Asia expansion are driving up PPIH’s margins while most companies in the consumer sphere are failing to pass down cost inflation.
With signs of OP moving to the pre-UNY acquisition level, we think that there’s an upside to the company’s medium-term guidance and consensus.

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Nov 09

Daily Brief Japan: Toshiba Corp, Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Softbank Group, Socionext, NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone), Nintendo, Takeda Pharmaceutical, Sapporo Holdings, Calbee Inc and more

In today’s briefing:

Toshiba (6502 JP) – Weak Sauce from JIP
KLine (9107) Buyback Redux-Squared – Post-Buyback Could Get Squeezy
Softbank Group – Accelerated Buyback in October Drove Share Price Surge
TOPIX Inclusion: Socionext (6526 JP) – Momentum Is Fading, Exit Now.
NTT Q2 Results and a New Buyback
Nintendo (7974) | No Christmas Present This Year
NTT (Buy) – Q2 22 Results Reaction: Expanded Buyback Is Second Largest Ever
Takeda: A Deep Dive into Takeda’s Dengue Vaccine
The First Step in Major Shift in Management Strategy Is for Sapporo to Sell Its Cross-Shareholdings
Calbee – Price Hikes to Deliver Upside As Buybacks Provide Downside Protection

Toshiba (6502 JP) – Weak Sauce from JIP

Media reported last night that JIP would bid ¥2.2trln for Toshiba. That’s about ¥5,000-5,100/share.
This morning, there is a bit more clarification. Funnily, that means there is less info here than people think.
But it is not a great look for either JIP or Toshiba at this point.

KLine (9107) Buyback Redux-Squared – Post-Buyback Could Get Squeezy

Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP) had a shareholder return program in place in May. Earnings forecasts on 3 Nov were slightly disappointing so the stock sold off but…
The large buyback allowed investors to try to game the situation. Some may have, but this morning on the execution, VERY few Real World Float holders sold.
That leaves the stock squeezy going into a buyback to repurchase 20% of the Max Real World Float (including short-created longs).

Softbank Group – Accelerated Buyback in October Drove Share Price Surge

Softbank Group (9984 JP) massively ramped up share buybacks in October driving a 31% increase in the share price
Average Daily Volume (ADV) was 28% higher in October and 46% higher for the last half of the month. October buyback volumes were the second highest for a month ever
Whether Softbank announces additional buyback plans likely depends on the timing of the ARM IPO and that partly depends on Q2 performance

TOPIX Inclusion: Socionext (6526 JP) – Momentum Is Fading, Exit Now.

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Japan-Based System-On-Chip designer and IP purveyor Socionext (6526 JP) was listed in the “Prime” section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) on 12th October 2022.
When a company gets listed in the Prime section, it subsequently gets included in the TOPIX Index requiring TOPIX-tracking funds to purchase the stock during an Inclusion Event.
Usually, this presents interesting trading opportunities to generate sharp market-neutral returns in the space of few trading days. Below is a look at the details for Socionext’s TOPIX Inclusion Event.

NTT Q2 Results and a New Buyback

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP) announced Q2 results today during market hours. The stock had been trading up 1.1% on the day, but fell 1% in 5 minutes.
It then spent the rest of the day grinding higher to end just higher than just before results.
NTT announced another buyback – this one on-market. It is only a little bit of a surprise.

Nintendo (7974) | No Christmas Present This Year

By Mark Chadwick

The share price is roughly flat since we turned Bearish on Nintendo citing concerns that the cycle had peaked
Q2 results released today suggest that the hardware cycle has indeed peaked – Switch hardware guidance cut
We see a lack of catalysts for the stock price over the next several months and remain bearish

NTT (Buy) – Q2 22 Results Reaction: Expanded Buyback Is Second Largest Ever

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Results were mostly positive with strong forex-boosted revenue growth and mobile outperformance
An expansion of the buyback program helps sentiment as an additional Y150bn program takes FY22 buybacks to the highest single-year total since 2005
Comments at the analyst meeting focused on underlying costs but management seems positive that it can manage with cost efficiencies

Takeda: A Deep Dive into Takeda’s Dengue Vaccine

Takeda’s dengue vaccine TAK-003/QDENGA has been approved in Indonesia and is awaiting consent from the EU. The company is also seeking approval from the US, Latam and other Asian countries.
The company plans to launch the vaccine in December or early next year which will become the industry’s first immunisation against dengue after the problems faced by Sanofi’s Dengvaxia.
In this insight, we take a look at Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) ‘s decade long journey into its dengue vaccine and its potential.

The First Step in Major Shift in Management Strategy Is for Sapporo to Sell Its Cross-Shareholdings

It is doubtful that independent outside directors are actually able to actively bridge the gap between shareholders and the board of directors, as the Corporate Governance Code states in Japan.
Behind the lack of willingness on the executive team to make major changes in the way things have been done is high % of specified shareholders (40%), including cross-held shares.
No major change in business strategy is expected unless foreign shareholder ratio exceeds 30%. In order for the current large shareholders’ equity to decline, Sapporo should sell its cross-held shares.

Calbee – Price Hikes to Deliver Upside As Buybacks Provide Downside Protection

Calbee Inc (2229 JP)’s share price fell 4% today from the top end of the trend channel as 2QFY23 OP fell short of consensus by ¥658m to ¥4.9bn.
There was also a ¥3.5bn downgrade to full-year OP guidance on higher-than-expected energy and raw material costs. However, this seems too conservative, especially with 10-20% price hikes in September-November.
In addition, share buy-backs are starting to become a regular part of shareholder returns with ¥12.0bn per-year in share buybacks in the previous fiscal year and the current fiscal year.

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Nov 08

Daily Brief Japan: Toshiba Corp, Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Internet Initiative Japan, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

In today’s briefing:

Toshiba (6502 JP): JIP Lobs a Lower-Than-Expected Offer
KLine (Kawasaki Kisen (9107)) – ToSTNeT-3 For All The Marbles
Internet Initiative Japan (Buy) – Q2 22 Results Reaction: Mobile Recovery Boosts Corporate DX Growth
Deepening Cash Allocation Required This Year of a New All-Time High in Share Repurchases

Toshiba (6502 JP): JIP Lobs a Lower-Than-Expected Offer

By Arun George

The Nikkei Asia reports that JIP has submitted a formal proposal to privatise Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) for about JPY2.2 trillion (US$15 billion) based on “Toshiba’s current share price.”
JIP’s offer is below expectations of around a JPY6,000 bid which is likely driven by the inability to secure sufficient debt financing. JIP remains in negotiations with banks.
While there is a risk that JIP will be unable to improve its offer to secure Board approval, the downside is low as Toshiba/peers’ current price ratio is attractive.

KLine (Kawasaki Kisen (9107)) – ToSTNeT-3 For All The Marbles

On Thursday, Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP) announced earnings, lower-than-consensus guidance and a ¥100bn buyback via ToSTNeT-3 this week, and on market if not filled via ToSTNeT-3.
The stock fell 5+%. I wrote I thought it was a buy and that the buyback was “game-able.” It rose 10+% from then til now.
That was the fun. Now we get the games. Positioning strategy matters.

Internet Initiative Japan (Buy) – Q2 22 Results Reaction: Mobile Recovery Boosts Corporate DX Growth

Internet Initiative Japan (3774 JP) posted solid Q2 results with the best quarterly revenue growth since 2016 and a 12th consecutive quarter of margin expansion
Results were driven by growth tailwinds for corporate digitization which was also visible in KDDI/Softbank results as well as a recovery in mobile which was not
The company did not raise its full-year financial guidance despite an H1 beat but forecasts looks increasingly conservative

Deepening Cash Allocation Required This Year of a New All-Time High in Share Repurchases

With company cash equivalents reaching all-time high of 140 trillion yen and many company managers feeling that their company’s stock price is undervalued, share repurchases will reach all-time high.
Since the introduction of the Corporate Governance Code in 2015, share repurchases have become an established cash allocation alternative for companies. Companies will continue to enhance the practices over time.
There is a need to deepen communication by showing investors how the company uses cash in its growth strategy, not limited to shareholder returns.

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Nov 07

Daily Brief Japan: Mitsui & Co Ltd, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, Toshiba Corp, Komatsu Ltd and more

In today’s briefing:

Mitsui & Co (8031) Buyback – Big Profit, Big Div, Big Buyback, Some Index Selling
Huge Gap in Awareness of Human Rights Between Japanese Companies and Investors
Toshiba (6502) – Funding Deadline Risk Was Known 6+ Weeks Ago
Deep Dive: Komatsu (6301, KMTUY)

Mitsui & Co (8031) Buyback – Big Profit, Big Div, Big Buyback, Some Index Selling

Mitsui & Co Ltd (8031 JP) on 1 November reported its results for H1 2022. H1 Revenue +37.1%yoy, OP+27.2%yoy, NP+33.2%yoy to ¥539bn. Full-year NP forecast +22.5% to ¥980bn.
Mitsui raised its dividend forecast (previously scheduled to rise from ¥105/share to ¥120/share) to ¥130/share and announced a ¥140bn buyback, adding to the ¥100bn announced in May completed in September.
The first ¥58.6bn was done in a ToSTNeT-3 buyback. Now there is another ¥79.4bn to go. There’s also a fair bit of index selling the next 6mos.

Huge Gap in Awareness of Human Rights Between Japanese Companies and Investors

While 80% of Japanese institutional investors place a high value on corporate respect for human rights, only 10% of companies have conducted human rights due diligence.
Japanese institutional investors should make it “visible” to their beneficiaries how they require companies to respect human rights in their engagement and how they encourage effective responses.
To ensure that the guidelines don’t end up as mere figure of speech, the government should make concrete policies to ensure that respect for human rights takes root in society.

Toshiba (6502) – Funding Deadline Risk Was Known 6+ Weeks Ago

There are several bits of news in the past few weeks indicating financing commitments might not meet the 7 Nov deadline. Principal among them the JIC/JIP split many weeks ago.
That suggested the 30 Sep and subsequent deadlines would be delayed. And it appears we now have the reason for it, and that is another cause of financing commitment delay.
This development suggests activists have another quiver in their arrow should privatisation not succeed. Toshiba has cheapened in the meantime.

Deep Dive: Komatsu (6301, KMTUY)

By Value Punks

Industrials have been quite resilient this year. Their stocks prices have run up as sector earnings fared better-than-expected, and as investors have looked for safety under the cover of ‘real economy’ stocks during a year in which tech is down big.
You may think that the train has left the station already with blue chip industrials like Caterpillar and Deere.
They’re certainly trading near all time highs! But hold on. There is one train which hasn’t left yet, and that is Komatsu.

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Nov 06

Daily Brief Japan: Ryohin Keikaku, Toshiba Corp and more

In today’s briefing:

Muji 500: The Missing Key to Plans for 2,000 Stores
Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Perpetual/Pendal, News Corp/Fox Corp

Muji 500: The Missing Key to Plans for 2,000 Stores

By Michael Causton

Muji has been trying to both reduce prices and consumer perception of its price positioning in the past few years, both at home and abroad.
This has been hard but a new ¥500 chain will make it clear that Muji is shifting positioning.
Muji will now even compete with discount and fixed price chains across food, home and clothing and the new price format will be much better suited to markets like China.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Perpetual/Pendal, News Corp/Fox Corp

By David Blennerhassett

There is potentially a premium of about 20-25% being assessed for the possibility of a deal for Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), but there is also fundamental risk beyond this.
Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU) rejects EQT/BPEA/Regal’s Offer, a proposal that is contingent on PPT ceasing its Scheme with Pendal Group (PDL AU)
News Corp (NWS AU) is trading rich. The net EV/EBITDA for the stub ops trades closely matches to Fox (FOXA US). And Fox is preferable over NWS’ print media business.

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Nov 05

Daily Brief Japan: Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Kirin Holdings, DISCO Corp, Softbank Corp and more

In today’s briefing:

KLine (Kawasaki Kisen 9107) Announced Q2 Earnings and Possibly Game-Able Buyback (And Index Impact)
Kirin: Another Beat Could Turn Consensus from Pessimism into Optimism
Disco (6146 JP): Not Immune to a Downturn
Softbank Corp (Buy) – Q2 22 Results Reaction: PayPay Boost to Guidance and In-Line Results

KLine (Kawasaki Kisen 9107) Announced Q2 Earnings and Possibly Game-Able Buyback (And Index Impact)

Strong but slightly disappointing Q2 earnings from Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP), and full-year forecasts are higher, but not as high as consensus.
The company has announced a buyback, to be executed on ToSTNeT-3. Effissimo and Mizuho Bank will participate. Other crossholders could too.
Strategy depends on whether you think they will. If they do not, post-buyback float drops sharply.

Kirin: Another Beat Could Turn Consensus from Pessimism into Optimism

Consensus has dismissed Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)’s revised revenue and OP guidance by maintaining consensus 2022 revenue and OP estimates at ¥1,970bn and ¥149.8bn respectively.
With the yen depreciating by an additional 5-15%, domestic business outperforming expectations and raw material prices falling, we expect another raise to Kirin’s annual guidance in 3Q22.
We think a second upgrade to 2022 guidance can turn consensus from pessimism to optimism.

Disco (6146 JP): Not Immune to a Downturn

By Scott Foster

The share price is at the top of its trading range, but management sees YoY sales and profit growth dropping to single digits this quarter.
On a QoQ basis, guidance is for double-digit declines, but that is partly seasonal.
The shares have been in a trading range for almost two years. As interest rates rise, economies slow and the semiconductor down-cycle continues, watch out.

Softbank Corp (Buy) – Q2 22 Results Reaction: PayPay Boost to Guidance and In-Line Results