Japan

In today’s briefing:

KLINE (9107) CEO Comes Out Swinging – More LPG Carriers and More Shareholder Returns THIS YEAR

KLINE (9107) CEO Comes Out Swinging – More LPG Carriers and More Shareholder Returns THIS YEAR

The Nikkei reported this AM that Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP) CEO was considering increasing shareholder returns this fiscal year. It already has a juicy div and a ¥100bn buyback.
The company announced its buyback, and an agreement by two holders of 39% to sell in a ToSTNeT-3 buy, then started buying in the market. Results are impactful.
The shares are up today on this news, though they gave some back after the BOJ news. The outlook for more share price impact is not bad.

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Dec 20

Daily Brief Japan: Fujitec Co Ltd, Recruit Holdings, Oriental Land, Softbank Group, ipet Holdings, Dream Incubator, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

In today’s briefing:

Fujitec (6406) Activism Levelling Up – A Board Spill to Come?
2022 High Conviction Recruit: More Room for Shares to Fall
Oriental Land: Fantasy Springs, No Longer Enticing Investors, It’s Likely The Start Of The Breakdown
Softbank Group – Requiem for WeWork’s Premium Valuation
IPet Holdings (7339 JP) – Tender Offer Extended But No Biggie
Dream Incubator (4310 JP) – An Interesting Exit and Attractive Valuation for Future Growth
The Problem Isn’t for the Subsidiary Shareholders but for the Parent Company Shareholders

Fujitec (6406) Activism Levelling Up – A Board Spill to Come?

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Two years ago, I wrote about the history of activist attention on what was then the 8th largest elevator maker in the world Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP).
In Activist Pressure FINALLY Works on Fujitec (6406)- Going Up? (Albeit Slowly) I discussed what were still nascent efforts by Oasis to trigger change at the top.
On 30 November 2022, Oasis – which officially went above 5% only this past March but on 30 November reported 16.52% – called an EGM. It’s worth a look.

2022 High Conviction Recruit: More Room for Shares to Fall

It is time we review our 2022 high conviction call. Our conviction short Recruit has fallen 41.5% since we made our call on the stock on 01st December 2022.
Though Staffing and Matching & Solutions businesses have bounced back post-Covid, HR Tech biz’s earnings have started to fall with weakening of labour markets.
With global recruitment markets facing challenges with weakening of global economies, we think Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) ‘s shares have further room to fall in 2023E.

Oriental Land: Fantasy Springs, No Longer Enticing Investors, It’s Likely The Start Of The Breakdown

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

As earnings recovered following the COVID drop, Oriental Land (4661 JP)’s FY+2 EV/OP returned to around 40-60x range, which in our opinion is too expensive, especially in current market conditions.
The positivity surrounding the opening of Fantasy Springs got investors to pay huge multiples but Fantasy Springs is no longer looking enticing to investors.
With a miss and a downgrade to FY23 guidance on the horizon, we are expecting OLC’s share-price to break the long-term trend to the downside in the next few months.

Softbank Group – Requiem for WeWork’s Premium Valuation

By Kirk Boodry

The market cap of Vision Fund portfolio company The We Company (WeWork) (WE US) has fallen decisively below that of rival IWG PLC (IWG LN) for the first time
Still despite WeWork’s constant drag on portfolio returns including c. $500mn this quarter, Vision Fund remains on track to end the quarter in the black (+$2bn QTD)
The holding company discount appears to have stabilized at 35% but this seems a bit steep with markets volatile again and a move to 40% would not surprise

IPet Holdings (7339 JP) – Tender Offer Extended But No Biggie

On 8 November, major Japanese life insurer Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP) announced it would buy out leading pet insurer ipet Holdings (7339 JP). Yes, you read that right.
Japanese listed VC/PE firm and incubator Dream Incubator Inc (4310 JP) owns 55% and agreed to tender. Tender success is dependent on getting 66.7%.
Today the buyer extended for 10 days because it had received approval under Article 271-22 Para 1 of the Insurance Business Act, triggering a requirement to refile/extend.

Dream Incubator (4310 JP) – An Interesting Exit and Attractive Valuation for Future Growth

In early November, Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP) announced it would buy ipet Holdings (7339 JP), of which listed VC/PE/incubator Dream Incubator (4310 JP) owned 55%. DI agreed.
Dream Incubator’s exit is worth ¥21.54bn in cash and ¥18.2bn in extraordinary gains on the consolidated financial statements for March 2023.
That is nice. They have promised to deliver ¥10bn of proceeds to shareholders and reinvest the other ¥5bn to grow their consulting business. It’s a nice little asset.

The Problem Isn’t for the Subsidiary Shareholders but for the Parent Company Shareholders

Both Kappa Kreate and ATOM are almost completely controlled by their parent company, ColoWide, and we cannot expect corporate governance practices that would actually be a relief to minority shareholders.
With the parent company in full control, the subsidiary’s minority shareholders are likely to be aware that the interests of the parent take precedence over those of the minority shareholders.
Parent company shareholders shouldn’t tolerate continuing to own subsidiaries that damage their interests. The problem isn’t a problem of the interests of the subsidiary’s shareholders, but of the parent’s shareholders.

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Dec 19

Daily Brief Japan: Toyo Construction and more

In today’s briefing:

Merger Arb Mondays (19 Dec) – Toyo, Genesis/St Barbara, Norwest, Nitro, Tyro, Elmo, Yashili, O2Micro

Merger Arb Mondays (19 Dec) – Toyo, Genesis/St Barbara, Norwest, Nitro, Tyro, Elmo, Yashili, O2Micro

By Arun George

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads – 21Vianet Group (VNET US), Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU), Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU), Golden Energy & Resources (GER SP), Origin Energy (ORG AU).
Lowest spreads Warrego Energy (WGO AU), Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU), Chip Eng Seng Corp (CHIP SP), Uzabase Inc (3966 JP), Norwest Energy Nl (NWE AU), Elmo Software (ELO AU).

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Dec 18

Daily Brief Japan: Toshiba Corp, Nidec Corp, ZOZO Inc, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

In today’s briefing:

Last Week in Event SPACE: NTT Data, Origin Energy, Toyo Construction, Haidilao, Toshiba
(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: St Barbara/Genesis, Tyro, Yashili, Acotec, Okk Corp/Nidec
Zozo Opens Store in Omotesando, to Increase Retail Ties
ESG Bonds for Individuals Matching Increased Issuance Intentions

Last Week in Event SPACE: NTT Data, Origin Energy, Toyo Construction, Haidilao, Toshiba

By David Blennerhassett

Stay long NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) through mid-January. Then sell.
Origin Energy (ORG AU) may drift lower as the street crunches numbers, in tandem with a vacuum of news as Brookfield undertakes its due diligence.
Toyo Construction (1890 JP) is now upset that YFO has decided to release the reason why Toyo management didn’t.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: St Barbara/Genesis, Tyro, Yashili, Acotec, Okk Corp/Nidec

By David Blennerhassett

There are 48 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Four new deals were discussed on Smartkarma: the St Barbara (SBM AU)/ Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) merger; Acotec (6669 HK)‘s Offer, Okk (6205 JP)‘s Offer, MinRes (MIN AU)/Norwest (NWE AU) merger.
Key updates took place for: Tyro Payments (TYR AU), Origin Energy (ORG AU), Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK), and Toyo Construction (1890 JP).

Zozo Opens Store in Omotesando, to Increase Retail Ties

By Michael Causton

Zozo may be the leading online fashion mall but it has spent the last two years using its power to drive more traffic to its merchants’ physical stores.
Its latest service allows stores to sell stock held at Zozo’s fulfilment centre when they themselves have sold out and thus avoid lost sales opportunities.
Zozo itself, meanwhile, will open a physical store in Omotesando but one entirely devoted to styling services for its customers.

ESG Bonds for Individuals Matching Increased Issuance Intentions

The benefit of issuing ESG bonds for retail investors is that they provide an investment opportunity for retail investors to become familiar with the ESG initiatives of individual issuers.
For the issuers, they can reduce issuance costs compared to institutional bonds. For the underwriting investment banks, the bonds are more profitable than institutional bonds because of higher sales fees.
Since ESG bonds for individuals have a maturity of 3-10 years, ESG factors such as the environment may have a short time to affect credit risk.

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Dec 17

Daily Brief Japan: Nitori Holdings and more

In today’s briefing:

Nitori to Ramp up N+ Clothing Chain – ¥500 Billion in New Sales?

Nitori to Ramp up N+ Clothing Chain – ¥500 Billion in New Sales?

By Michael Causton

Nitori dominates in home decor and furniture but now wants to become a top 10 fashion retailer through its N+ chain targeting older women.
It will raise the rate of new stores to 30 a year and then to up to 100 a year as it reaches scale.
Will it be the Uniqlo for the middle-aged? If so it could own a chunk of a segment worth an estimated ¥2.5 trillion.

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Dec 16

Daily Brief Japan: Toshiba Corp, Anycolor, Premier Anti-Aging, Tokyo Electron, FUJIFILM Holdings, Askul Corp, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

In today’s briefing:

Toshiba (6502) – Funding Secured!
2023 High Conviction – Anycolor (5032) Aiming at TSE Prime and TOPIX – And How!
Toshiba (6502 JP): Securing Financing Helps Sentiment but Hurdles Remain
Premier Anti-Aging Company: DUO Is Going Down
Tokyo Electron (8035) | Huge Upside if Management Hit Targets
Fujifilm: An Inspiring Transformation Story
Askul Q2 23 Results Reaction: B2B Growth and B2C Cost Savings Drive Solid Quarter
ROIC Helps to Raise Transparency in Business, but Management Skills Are the Key to Improve Return

Toshiba (6502) – Funding Secured!

A Nikkei article today suggests FUNDING SECURED for JIP’s deal for Toshiba Corp (6502 JP). Noises 2wks ago suggested this timing for a deal, but there are no terms yet.
The syndicate, led by SMBC and Mizuho, “has agreed to ¥1.2trln in loans.” The two leads take two-thirds but details suggest not all is as smooth as the headline suggests.
The remaining questions are whether the major holders will take the bait at that price, and/or whether JIC would come in over the top. I expect yes to the first.

2023 High Conviction – Anycolor (5032) Aiming at TSE Prime and TOPIX – And How!

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

“VTuber” (Virtual Youtuber) animated influencer company Anycolor (5032 JP) was listed on 8 June 2022 at ¥1530. The stock popped 214% on Day1.It is up another 60% since then.
Today Anycolor reported Q2 earnings (result, presentation) and revised its full-year forecast to 30 April. Revenues will be +7-18% vs forecast, OP +18-39%, NP +15-39%. Price is 43x forecast EPS.
The company also announced it is preparing a Section Transfer application, but gave little more info. So we dig into what THAT means.

Toshiba (6502 JP): Securing Financing Helps Sentiment but Hurdles Remain

By Arun George

The Nikkei reports that Japan Industrial Partners (JIP), the preferred bidder, has secured bank financing of around JPY1.2 trillion (US$8.8 billion), conditional on Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) selling some businesses.
JIP will table an offer valuing Toshiba at JPY2.2 trillion (US$16 billion). The special committee is assessing the proposal and a final decision will be made at a board meeting.
JIP’s next challenge is getting the committee to recommend the offer. While a potential offer of JPY5,100 is not terrible, it is well below the original bid expectation of JPY6,000.

Premier Anti-Aging Company: DUO Is Going Down

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Premier Anti-Aging (4934 JP) shares rose 6.1% today following a massive earnings miss and a substantial downgrade to FY23 guidance.
This is perhaps due to low liquidity and depressed prices as the share price dropped more than 85% since July last year.
We think there’s more downside to the stock, especially with DUO about to hit the bottom of the barrel and CANADEL and Clayence struggling to maintain growth momentum.

Tokyo Electron (8035) | Huge Upside if Management Hit Targets

By Mark Chadwick

Tokyo Electron is a structural growth stock that has fallen by 31% YTD reflecting near term risks to growth and margins
We believe that the digitization of society has only just begun and that data volumes will grow exponentially
We analyse TEL’s core value drivers – revenue, margins, risk and reinvestment – and see 38% upside

Fujifilm: An Inspiring Transformation Story

Established as a domestic photographic film manufacturing company, Fujifilm has successfully evolved into a healthcare company with majority revenue earned from medical and life science related businesses.
Fujifilm is now a leading player in Bio CDMO market through a combination of acquisitions and in-house developed capabilities. The company has gained recognition among leading pharmaceutical companies.
We think there is further upside to Fujifilm’s valuation multiples as the market still values the stock as an image/photography company and not in line with healthcare peers.

Askul Q2 23 Results Reaction: B2B Growth and B2C Cost Savings Drive Solid Quarter

By Kirk Boodry

Results for Q2 were better than we expected as B2B sales growth remained robust whilst cost savings on the consumer side boosted margins
A rather robust decline in revenue for Lohaco is the only negative that stands out but this was partially anticipated whilst the corresponding cost savings are a boon
An 11% increase in operating profit for Q2 offsets weakness from the previous report and puts the company on track to meet guidance for full-year growth

ROIC Helps to Raise Transparency in Business, but Management Skills Are the Key to Improve Return

The important thing is not whether the ROIC tool is used or not, but rather the risk-taking for investment and whether it resulted in sufficient returns.
A change in the outlook for improving profitability is necessary for the stock price to rise, and furthermore, a compelling growth policy and capital allocation can also be effective.
The fact that valuations have not risen sufficiently in the current situation infers that investors lack confidence in the path to improving profitability for each business.

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Dec 15

Daily Brief Japan: Toyo Construction, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, Shizuoka Financial Group, Terumo Corp and more

In today’s briefing:

Toyo Construction (1890 JP): Pot Shots and Warning Shots
Companies that Buy Back Their Own Shares but Do Not Increase Their Share Price Should Consider Why
Shizuoka – Indigestion
Terumo Corp (4543 JP): H1FY23 Results Reflect Continued Recovery from the Pandemic

Toyo Construction (1890 JP): Pot Shots and Warning Shots

By Arun George

YFO’s press release alleges the Toyo Construction (1890 JP) Board will not recommend the tender as YFO is not a suitable owner rather than the JPY,1000 price being too low.
The Board responded that YFO violated the NDA by disclosing the reasons for the Board’s disapproval. This damages the understanding between the parties, an essential precondition to recommending the offer.
The start of the tender has been pushed back to late January 2023. YFO is committed and will not withdraw the offer for any reason that shareholders may consider unreasonable.

Companies that Buy Back Their Own Shares but Do Not Increase Their Share Price Should Consider Why

Companies are presumably allocating cash to shareholder returns rather than investing in growth. Lack of investment in growth may lead to slower profit growth, which leads to lower valuations.
There is concern that management may be hesitant to take risks. Since no shareholder hates shareholder returns, they may be easily diverted to share repurchases that don’t require risk-taking decision.
Although the expected share repurchase will limit the risk of sharp decline in the stock prices, modest growth investments are likely to prevent the expansion of multiples.

Shizuoka – Indigestion

By Daniel Tabbush

Credit costs in September quarter are showing steep delta YoY and QoQ
Accelerated credit growth in past six months may mean there is more to come
Funding cost surge is keeping net interest income growth near zero despite swelling loans

Terumo Corp (4543 JP): H1FY23 Results Reflect Continued Recovery from the Pandemic

By Tina Banerjee

Terumo Corp (4543 JP) recorded double-digit revenue growth in H1FY23, with record-high Q2 revenue exceeding ¥200 billion. All three businesses of Terumo reported growth during H1FY23.
Cardiac and vascular segment remained the key growth driver and grew 21%, driven by a 24% y/y growth in overseas revenue amid the recovery and growth of medical demand.
Inflation and normalization of sales and marketing activities impacted the profitability of the company. To improve profitability Terumo has taken further price increase in second half.

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Dec 14

Daily Brief Japan: NTT Data Corp, Toyo Construction, Okk Corp, Seven & I Holdings, Omron Corp and more

In today’s briefing:

NTT Buying NTT Data Shares – ¥40bn to Go
Toyo (1890) Says “We Reject”. YFO Says “But We Didn’t Talk”. Medium-🌶🌶🌶 Hostile Activism To Ensue
Nidec (6594) To Take Over Nidec OKK (6205), Squeezing Out Minorities
2021 & 2022 High Conviction Review: Time’s Up For Seven & I But Japan Tobacco Has More Room to Run
Omron (6645) | Key Beneficiary of Industry 4.0

NTT Buying NTT Data Shares – ¥40bn to Go

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP) and NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) did a deal earlier this year to sell NTT’s global data business to NTT Data. Discussed here.
NTT sold 55% of its current overseas business in NTT Communications, Dimension Data, and NTT Security Group, in return getting 45% of NTT Data’s current global business, plus ¥112bn.
NTT would then spend ¥100bn of the ¥112bn increasing its stake. So far it has spent ¥58.39bn buying 18% of volume every day since Oct 1.

Toyo (1890) Says “We Reject”. YFO Says “But We Didn’t Talk”. Medium-🌶🌶🌶 Hostile Activism To Ensue

In March, Toyo Construction (1890 JP) agreed to be bought out by INFRONEER Holdings (5076 JP) for ¥770/share. One activist objected, and bought 28%. They then said they’d pay ¥1,000.
The Infroneer deal failure started an acrimonious back and forth. The hostility lessened over the summer, but despite activist Yamauchi Family Office’s protestations of love, no deal as of November.
Today saw another press release, delaying things. The contents are 🌶🌶🌶. NOW things are getting more interesting. Hostility is back. Medium-spicy. Three 🌶 out of five.

Nidec (6594) To Take Over Nidec OKK (6205), Squeezing Out Minorities

Small machine tool maker OKK used to be good for about ¥2bn in EBITDA, then that dropped to the low ¥1bns on average, then the last two years were negative.
A year ago, Nidec agreed to inject capital and buy 66.6% of OKK – Now Nidec OKK – for peanuts. Yesterday, the two agreed a scrip merger on 1 March.
The process and ratio leave a LOT to be desired but they only need 66.67% and with 66.66% already, it’s a done deal. Nothing you can do about it.

2021 & 2022 High Conviction Review: Time’s Up For Seven & I But Japan Tobacco Has More Room to Run

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

As the year draws to a close, we took time to assess the effectiveness of our high-conviction calls made during the past two years.
With further dividend hikes looking increasingly possible, our 2022 high-conviction call, Japan Tobacco (2914 JP) has more room to run this year.
However, it’s probably the right time to take profits from our 2021 high-conviction trade, Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) as the US gas-stations profitability maxed-out in the last quarter.

Omron (6645) | Key Beneficiary of Industry 4.0

By Mark Chadwick

Omron is a structural growth stock that has fallen by 39% YTD reflecting near term risks to growth and margins
We believe that Omron is a major beneficiary of continued investment in automation and the shift to Industry 4.0
We analyse Omron’s core value drivers – revenue, margins, risk and reinvestment – and see 35% upside

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Dec 13

Daily Brief Japan: IHI Corp, Skymark Airlines, Daiei Kankyo, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

In today’s briefing:

IHI (7013) | Boeing Orders Take Off
Skymark Airlines IPO Trading – Subscription Has Been Strong Despite Asking More than Peers
Daiei Kankyo IPO Trading – Peers Have Been Correcting
Is Effective Reform Only Possible After Future Problems with High-Risk Companies?

IHI (7013) | Boeing Orders Take Off

By Mark Chadwick

Boeing’s stock price is recovering sharply as it benefits from recent multi-billion-dollar order wins
Japanese stocks (IHI, MHI, KHI & Subaru) are highly geared into the Boeing supply chain
We highlight IHI as a top pick on this thematic and believe aero-engine revenues will continue to recover, driving a stock re-rating

Skymark Airlines IPO Trading – Subscription Has Been Strong Despite Asking More than Peers

By Clarence Chu

Skymark Airlines (9204 JP) raised US$242m in its Japan IPO. Skymark Airlines (SA) is a Japanese low-cost airline, being the third largest domestic airline according to the company.
SA began its operations in Japan as a domestic airline and gradually increased the number of routes offered to passengers. However, it has a mired history of bankruptcy.
In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance and talked about valuations. In this note, we’ll talk about the trading dynamics.

Daiei Kankyo IPO Trading – Peers Have Been Correcting

By Sumeet Singh

Daiei Kankyo (9336 JP) , a waste management company, raised around US$314m in its Japan IPO.
Daiei Kankyo is involved in the waste management and related businesses in Japan. The core of its operations consists of its waste management and recycling business
In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance and talked about valuations. In this note, we’ll talk about the trading dynamics.

Is Effective Reform Only Possible After Future Problems with High-Risk Companies?

Large audit firms focus on more profitable business and improving the profitability of their audit services. Consequently, high-risk firms that have been withdrawn from large firms flow to small-and-medium-sized firms.
“Enhancement of governance, including third-party evaluation function” is crucial to ensure that the audit firm has system to oversee and objectively determine the appropriateness of audit process and audit opinion.
Smaller audit firms will comply with the guidelines just for show, but only when future problems with high-risk firms arise will effective reforms be made in accordance with the guidelines.

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Dec 12

Daily Brief Japan: Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, Yokogawa Electric and more

In today’s briefing:

How Much Progress Has Been Made in Understanding the Concept of Shareholder Capitalism Since 1990s?
Yokogawa Electric (6841 JP): Carbon-Neutral Industrial Park & Green Hydrogen

How Much Progress Has Been Made in Understanding the Concept of Shareholder Capitalism Since 1990s?