Category

Japan

Daily Brief Japan: SBI Shinsei Bank, Nikon Corp, Ricoh Company Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Shinsei’s TOB Period Almost Done – What Next?
  • Nikon: A Reality Check on Nikon’s Medium-Term Management Plan
  • Nikon (7731) | Profitability Key to Mid-Term Plan
  • Ricoh (7752 JP) – Long Term Structural Decliner with a Recent Boost in Inorganic Rev & Profits


Shinsei’s TOB Period Almost Done – What Next?

By Travis Lundy

  • The Tender Offer by SBI Holdings (8473 JP) to take private SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) is almost done. The tender closes on 23 June. 
  • The stock has not traded below theTOB Price since the announcement. People have built positions. Expect minimal liquidity from here on out. I expect a somewhat ‘weak’ result.
  • Now starts a series of ‘technical’ events and deadlines which will culminate for some in delisting at end-Q3/start-Q4 and for some ends in years after an Appraisal Rights case.

Nikon: A Reality Check on Nikon’s Medium-Term Management Plan

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • During 4QFY03/2023 results release, Nikon announced a medium-term target of revenues of ¥700bn, OPM of 10%+ and ROE of 8%+ by the end of FY2025E (FY ended 31st March 2026).
  • Our analysis (with conservative assumptions) suggests that the company could easily achieve its medium-term target despite the company expecting to see its earnings declining in FY03/2024E.
  • Nikon is trading at a discount to its Japanese peers Canon and Konica Minolta and we think the market is clearly undervaluing the company as a pure-play Imaging products player.

Nikon (7731) | Profitability Key to Mid-Term Plan

By Mark Chadwick

  • Poised for Profitability rebound in FY3/25 putting Nikon on track to meet mid-term plan targets.  
  • ArF Unit Expansion as Intel benefits from government fiscal incentives to build fabs in EU and US. 
  • Based on the FY3/26 plan for EBIT of Y70b, the stock’s theoretical valuation would reach around Y2,200/share

Ricoh (7752 JP) – Long Term Structural Decliner with a Recent Boost in Inorganic Rev & Profits

By Robert C Prather Jr

  • Large portion of the business is in secular decline and facing pricing pressure
  • Ricoh Company Ltd (7752 JP) appears to be losing share in a shrinking market
  • Estimates are above overly optimistic guidance making shares look optically inexpensive

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Daily Brief Japan: Canon Inc, Takeda Pharmaceutical, Fast Retailing, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Canon Strikes Again. One Buyback Done, Another Begins. Shareholder Structure STILL Matters
  • Takeda: Clinical Development of HUTCHMED’s Fruquintinib Progressing Well
  • Fast Retailing: Opportunities for Long-Term Growth Overshadowed by High Valuation
  • Watch for Changes in Proxy Voting by Domestic Institutional Investors on Shareholder Proposals


Canon Strikes Again. One Buyback Done, Another Begins. Shareholder Structure STILL Matters

By Travis Lundy

  • Canon Inc (7751 JP) has, as discussed in these pages, conducted 18 buybacks since the GFC. Every single one is ¥50bn. They are short and sharp. The longest? 23 days.
  • The most recent took 18 days, and was only 15% of ADV, significantly lower than the average of the last dozen at 23-24%.
  • This time, 3 days after the finished they launched another. The stock popped 5% the first day. There’s a reason for that. Shareholder structure STILL matters a lot. 

Takeda: Clinical Development of HUTCHMED’s Fruquintinib Progressing Well

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • HUTCHMED developed Fruquintinib has demonstrated positive results in a Phase III FRESCO-2 study which reduced the risk of death by 34% in patients with previously treated metastatic colorectal cancer.
  • In addition, Fruquintinib also has been validated and accepted for regulatory review (for marketing authorization) by the European Medicines Agency (EMA) last week.
  • In January 2023, Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) entered into an exclusive licensing agreement with HUTCHMED to further develop and commercialise Fruquintinib outside of Mainland China, Macau and Hong Kong.

Fast Retailing: Opportunities for Long-Term Growth Overshadowed by High Valuation

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Japan’s strong domestic demand and a rebound in China fuel optimistic growth outlook for Fast Retailing (9983 JP) in the short term.
  • Furthermore, the markets such as Europe, North America, South East Asia, India, and Australia present promising long-term growth opportunities.
  • However, Fast Retailing’s valuation is a cause for concern as it currently trades at a consensus FY27 OP of 20.0x.

Watch for Changes in Proxy Voting by Domestic Institutional Investors on Shareholder Proposals

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Many companies that cannot make significant investments in growth will reduce cash from their balance sheets through shareholder returns, and ROE+DOE will continue to reach high levels in FY2023.
  • A company with a P/B of less than 1x for a long time should consider the option of going private after weighing the costs and benefits of being listed.
  • Although most of the shareholder proposals will be rejected unless the foreign ownership is very high, whether the voting rights of domestic institutional investors will change remains to be seen.

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Daily Brief Japan: Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, JPY, Toshiba Corp, Macbee Planet and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • JAPAN FLOW: Foreign Investor Inflows Increased; Next Is Foreigners Vs Buybacks Vs GPIF
  • USD Trade Splinters
  • Weekly Deals Digest (18 Jun) – Toshiba, Kenedix, Abacus Storage King, Austal, Hailan, Yitai Coal
  • Macbee Planet (7095) – Firing on All Cylinders


JAPAN FLOW: Foreign Investor Inflows Increased; Next Is Foreigners Vs Buybacks Vs GPIF

By Travis Lundy

  • On 8 May I wrote JAPAN FLOW: Foreign Investor Inflows May Increase.  Since the data used in that insight, TSE data shows net foreign buying of ¥3.5trln+. 
  • Investor flows appear to work in patterns which are correlated to TOPIX gains and outperformance vs S&P500. 
  • The history of autocorrelation of net buying suggests while the current streak may end, a four week average of net buys could remain positive for a while. 

USD Trade Splinters

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Our proposed USD bull trade from DXY 102.60 (104.80 target zone) is in jeopardy after the ECB induced Euro spike. 
  • Sterling has been our top USD short and the USD/JPY a top USD long. The Euro is under scrutiny but has been capped under 1.11.
  • We will be looking for further evidence of USD bearish elements. DXY below 102 would be more bearish but would be in line with a near term slide in yield.

Weekly Deals Digest (18 Jun) – Toshiba, Kenedix, Abacus Storage King, Austal, Hailan, Yitai Coal

By Arun George


Macbee Planet (7095) – Firing on All Cylinders

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Q1-4 FY4/2023 results were ahead of revised company guidance and our earnings estimates, highlighting the company’s success in 1) driving demand at both existing and newly acquired customers, and 2) implementing Marketing Technology services that are improving the overall sales mix and driving margin growth.
  • On this fundamentally robust basis, the company acquired Net Marketing in April 2023, an advertising agency that will allow access to new customers in which to sell-in profitable Marketing Technology services and replicate its effective model, as well as gain exposure to a more diversified range of market sectors.
  • Strong outlook for FY4/2024 – we revise our earnings estimates for FY4/2024 and beyond, reflecting the following: 1) stronger topline growth in Analytics Consulting, 2) a more enhanced trajectory of profitability improvement in the medium term, given the success of Marketing Technology services to date.

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Daily Brief Japan: Keisei Electric Railway Co, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Kesei/Oriental Land, Intouch, Abacus Property, Great Eagle, JS Global
  • The Problem Is that Many Managers Know that ROE Is Below Cost of Capital but Are Not Taking Action


Last Week in Event SPACE: Kesei/Oriental Land, Intouch, Abacus Property, Great Eagle, JS Global

By David Blennerhassett


The Problem Is that Many Managers Know that ROE Is Below Cost of Capital but Are Not Taking Action

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The essence of problem lies in the fact that even half of them believe that ROE doesn’t exceed cost of capital, yet managers haven’t taken measures to address this problem.
  • In reality, management reform is still a long way off, as constructive proposals from shareholders are often not accepted until the % of foreign shareholders rises to the 30% level.
  • TSE has made it possible to compare the superiority of management skills with share price. Attention will be focused on how managers will answer questions about share prices at AGMs.

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Daily Brief Japan: Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, M3 Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Fewer Companies Still Use Capital Efficiency Such as ROE as KPIs for Variable Compensation
  • M3: Growth Slowing Down Despite Long List of M&As Continuing


Fewer Companies Still Use Capital Efficiency Such as ROE as KPIs for Variable Compensation

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Overseas investors have called for increasing the ratio of variable compensation to executive compensation. Given that foreign ownership ratios have remained high, this upward trend is expected to continue.
  • Few companies use capital efficiency like ROE as KPIs for variable compensation, which is consistent with the fact that few companies set them as numerical targets in mid-term management plans.
  • The role of independent directors has become more important as more companies are involving compensation committees in the compensation determination process since the 2001 amendments to the Companies Law.

M3: Growth Slowing Down Despite Long List of M&As Continuing

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • M3’s share price dropped around 9% after 4QFY03/2023 earnings, however, it went up by more than 8% since then following the announcement regarding the acquisition of Kantar’s healthcare research businesses.
  • Our estimates suggest that new acquisition would not contribute to any meaningful growth in the near term. Despite having large no. of M&A deals, growth rates have started to fall.
  • We think there is further downside to M3 Inc (2413 JP) ‘s consensus FY+2 earnings estimates and we would recommend shorting the stock.

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Daily Brief Japan: Toyo Construction, Nissin Foods Holdings, Chiba Bank, Paramount Bed Holdings Co Lt, Takuma Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Yamauchi Family Office Buys More Toyo; Toyo Claims More Malfeasance, ISS Supports YFO
  • Japan Consumer Staples Update: Inflation Looks a Blessing in Disguise for Those with Pricing Power
  • Chiba Bank – Less Yield Curve Control Issue With Near Zero JGBs
  • Paramount Bed (7817 JP): All-Time Revenue and Profit in FY23; Further Upside Potential Remains
  • Takuma (6031) | AVI to Turn Waste into Wealth


Yamauchi Family Office Buys More Toyo; Toyo Claims More Malfeasance, ISS Supports YFO

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, YFO (WK1 Limited) filed an amendment to its Large Shareholder Filing saying it had increased its stake from 27.19% to 28.51%. GK Yamauchi No10 Family Office bought 1.32%.
  • Almost immediately, Toyo Construction (1890 JP) said YFO had likely conducted an illegal act according to US Securities Exchange Act of 1934, Rule 14e-5. This is likely hogwash.
  • YFO is upping its stake for a zero premium tender and Toyo is fighting old battles. And the stock chugs higher.

Japan Consumer Staples Update: Inflation Looks a Blessing in Disguise for Those with Pricing Power

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Japan’s inflation hit a 41-year high at 4.3% in January, but gradually slowed down in the following months, reaching 3.3%, 3.2%, and 3.5% in February, March, and April 2023, respectively.
  • Although Fuel, Electricity, and Water prices declined, other items excluding fresh vegetables, maintained inflation at a similar pace, suggesting that cost-push inflation continues to impact the overall economic environment.
  • This insight examines the recent quarterly performance of Yakult, Nissin, and Seven & I, our top picks in the Japan Consumer Staples Sector Smartkarma Original.

Chiba Bank – Less Yield Curve Control Issue With Near Zero JGBs

By Daniel Tabbush

  • If there is no relief on yield curve control (YCC) anytime soon, seek banks with low JGBs
  • Chiba Bank is one of few banks in Japan where JGBs are nearly a rounding error vs assets
  • A pure play on an improving Japan, focused next door to Tokyo, with falling NPLs

Paramount Bed (7817 JP): All-Time Revenue and Profit in FY23; Further Upside Potential Remains

By Tina Banerjee

  • Paramount Bed Holdings Co Lt (7817 JP) reported all-time high revenue and profit in FY23, driven by increased demand and price revision effect. The company has announced dividend of ¥59/share.
  • For FY24, Paramount expects revenue growth of 6% to ¥105B, driven by expanding recurring revenue. Operating and net profits are expected to increase 4% and 6%, YoY, respectively, in FY24.
  • Through business expansion and new product launches, the company is on track to achieve mid-term target of revenue of ¥120B and operating income of ¥17B in FY27.

Takuma (6031) | AVI to Turn Waste into Wealth

By Mark Chadwick

  • Takuma presents an undervalued investment opportunity with strong financials, and a robust balance sheet. The focus on environmental solutions position it to capitalize on the demand for carbon neutrality.
  • The recent involvement of AVI Japan as activist investors adds an exciting catalyst to Takuma’s investment case. We expect AVI to work with management to unlock further value.
  • Takuma’s management is targeting enhanced profitability by transitioning from a more volatile EPC model to a recurring revenue-driven approach centred on O&M. Attractive valuations underpin our bullish view.

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Daily Brief Japan: Kenedix Office Investment Co, Kenedix Retail REIT, Secom Co Ltd, Recruit Holdings, Carta Holdings, Inc., Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, Onward Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Kenedix Office/Resi/Commercial Three-Way Merger – Size Matters and Index Flows Do Too
  • Kenedix Merger: Office, Residential, Retail & Index Implications
  • Kenedix Office Investment (8972 JP): Merger with Kenedix Residential and Kenedix Retail REIT
  • Secom (9735) | Share Price Surge Expected as Activist Proposals Gain Attention
  • Recruit Holdings: Recent Rally in Share Price Is Unwarranted
  • Carta Holdings (3688 JP) – 1Q FOLLOW-UP
  • Can the Gender Wage Gap Be Solved Simply by Investors Demanding Improvements from the Company?
  • Big Apparel Revival: Onward up Again, Sanyo Finally Makes a Profit


Kenedix Office/Resi/Commercial Three-Way Merger – Size Matters and Index Flows Do Too

By Travis Lundy


Kenedix Merger: Office, Residential, Retail & Index Implications

By Brian Freitas

  • Kenedix Office Investment Co, Kenedix Residential Investment and Kenedix Retail REIT have announced a three-way absorption merger to create Kenedix Realty Investment Corporation.
  • The increased size and liquidity of the merged entity will put the stock on the radar of active investors and there could be a re-rating higher.
  • There will be some passive flows into the merged entity at the time of merger implementation and this will help the stock outperform its peers.

Kenedix Office Investment (8972 JP): Merger with Kenedix Residential and Kenedix Retail REIT

By Arun George


Secom (9735) | Share Price Surge Expected as Activist Proposals Gain Attention

By Mark Chadwick

  • Secom’s share price has surged by 8% following shareholder proposals submitted by Dalton Investments, raising expectations for potential approval of a 10% share buyback and its impact on stock price.
  • Secom, operating in a mature industry with limited growth prospects, faces challenges in deploying capital and maintaining consistent earnings growth, leading to an accumulation of capital on its balance sheet.
  • While Dalton’s proposals may not gain sufficient support to pass at the upcoming AGM, the potential involvement of other activists warrant a bullish outlook.

Recruit Holdings: Recent Rally in Share Price Is Unwarranted

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Recruit’s share price been up +13% YTD and gained more than 22% over the last 30-days with the US Dept of Labour releasing job data for April 2023.
  • Job openings were 10.1m in April 2023 vs estimates of c. 9.4m which created positive sentiment over labour market’s resilience to economic turmoil. However, April numbers were 13.5% down YoY.
  • Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) is currently trading at a lofty FY+2 EV/EBIT multiple of 17.9x despite earnings expectations deteriorating, we are set to benefit nicely on the short side.

Carta Holdings (3688 JP) – 1Q FOLLOW-UP

By Sessa Investment Research

  • In 1Q FY23/12, CARTA Holdings posted a 23.3% YoY increase in transaction volume for programmatic TV commercial service TELECY, and a 2.8-fold increase in gross sales in the retail domain, showing steady performance in the mass retail domain, which the company has positioned as a priority area in its medium-term management plan.
  • On the other hand, the weak macro environment continued to weigh on double-digit sales declines in reservation-based ads, resulting in a 7.7% YoY drop in sales and a 59.3% drop in operating profit overall. 
  • YoY comparisons will ease off from the next quarter, but with 2Q usually being a slow period for advertising and the lack of activity from advertisers in the new fiscal year from April onward, earnings are expected to recovery smoothly rather than sharply.

Can the Gender Wage Gap Be Solved Simply by Investors Demanding Improvements from the Company?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The fact that men occupy most of the highly compensated positions has increased the wage gap between men and women, so solutions must start with correcting the male-dominated social structure.
  • Not only is no acceleration seen in PM Kishida’s target for % of female executives by 2030, but it’s only goal, not commitment, as it applies only to top-tier companies.
  • At this point, the only thing that can be done is for investors who have analyzed human capital disclosures in annual securities reports to persistently press companies to make improvements.

Big Apparel Revival: Onward up Again, Sanyo Finally Makes a Profit

By Michael Causton

  • FY2022 was the best year in a decade for Japan’s big apparel firms. Brands benefitted from the return to shops, particularly department stores.
  • Some of the leaders used the pandemic to make further progress in rationalisation, diversification and omnichannel, creating solid foundations for further growth in market share.
  • Sanyo Shokai finally made a profit but has stuck to what it knows, which may lead to problems once the rebound dividend wanes.

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Daily Brief Japan: Keisei Electric Railway Co, Seino Holdings, NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone), Nippon Shinyaku and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Keisei Electric: Distorted Valuation Unveils Opportunity for Activist Investors
  • Seino (9076) – More Seino, Seino More. Know What I Mean? Eh Eh? Seino Goes Big on Capital Policy
  • NTT: Developing Industry-Specific AI Offerings as AI Becomes One of Government’s Key Focus Areas
  • Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP): FY24 Guidance Falls Short of Mid-Term Target; DMD Drug Growth Slows Down


Keisei Electric: Distorted Valuation Unveils Opportunity for Activist Investors

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Surpassing the pre-COVID average of 49%, the NAV discount currently stands at 61%, implying potential 12% market-neutral returns in the short-term through the recovery of the core transportation business.
  • Activist investor influence in distributing Keisei Electric’s ¥1,980bn Oriental Land (4661 JP) stake to existing shareholders could unleash over 150% potential upside, surpassing the earlier mentioned 12% gain.
  • Thus, there is high likelihood of Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)‘s continued outperformance over Oriental Land in the medium term.

Seino (9076) – More Seino, Seino More. Know What I Mean? Eh Eh? Seino Goes Big on Capital Policy

By Travis Lundy

  • Three years ago, Seino Holdings (9076 JP) delivered a lot of its cash back to shareholders in a big buyback. They bought back almost 15mm shares (7.5%).
  • Since then, they’ve bought another 2.5%. In February, they changed their Dividend Policy to max(2.4% DOE, 30% payout ratio). Then they set a cap and floor on the dividend.
  • Four months later they have a new MTMP, and a new Dividend Policy. Simple. 4.0%+ DOE. Div +70% vs last year. Oh… and there’s an 11% buyback. 

NTT: Developing Industry-Specific AI Offerings as AI Becomes One of Government’s Key Focus Areas

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Nikkei reported last week that NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP) is developing a generative AI and plans to offer services to the company’s corporate clients by Next March.
  • Over the recent years, NTT has been extensively investing on AI, robotics and other data-driven products and services to boost its top line growth as its core business is saturating.
  • AI and semiconductors are two key policy areas of Japanese government for development as the country is dealing with population and other demographic changes.

Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP): FY24 Guidance Falls Short of Mid-Term Target; DMD Drug Growth Slows Down

By Tina Banerjee

  • Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP)‘s FY24 revenue guidance is 3% below mid-term target, while operating and net profits guidance are 20% and 17% below the target, respectively.  
  • Revenue growth of Viltepso is expected to decelerate to 28% in FY24 from 85% in FY23, dragged by the U.S. sales, which contributes 74% of Viltepso revenue.
  • Rival Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT US) is expected to receive FDA approval for its next DMD gene therapy drug this month, leading to a new competition for Viltepso.

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Daily Brief Japan: Toshiba Corp, Nikkei 225, ROHM Co Ltd, Benesse Holdings, Mitsubishi Electric and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Deals Digest (11 Jun) – Toshiba, Chindata, Yitai Coal, Eoflow, Estia, Origin, Amman Mineral
  • Asia Macro Chart Trajectory
  • Rohm (6963 JP): Taking the Long View
  • Benesse Holdings (9783): Time to Cover
  • Advisors’ Disclosure Is Inadequate and Other Companies May Have Similar Cases


Weekly Deals Digest (11 Jun) – Toshiba, Chindata, Yitai Coal, Eoflow, Estia, Origin, Amman Mineral

By Arun George


Asia Macro Chart Trajectory

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Macro charts for US 10yr yield, Nikkei (bull), Kospi 200 (bear), HSI (bear) and Nifty (bull) featured. Taiwan falls into the bull camp.
  • Cycle: Bullish above SPX 4,200 (rally failure if back below this pivot level). NDX trendline buy  support at 13,950. Risk that tech is stretched near term.
  • Asia is well positioned for gains once we get through some overbought readings. HK and Korea the weak links.

Rohm (6963 JP): Taking the Long View

By Scott Foster

  • Share price performance has been strong in spite of pressure on margins from heavy investment in power semiconductors for electric vehicles. 
  • Management’s medium-term targets are ambitious, but could be achieved in a reasonably favorable economic environment.
  • Projected valuations compare favorably with historical ranges. The primary risk to investors appears to be  over-optimism. 

Benesse Holdings (9783): Time to Cover

By Henry Soediarko

  • Benesse Holdings (9783 JP) share price has fallen 18% annually since 4 years ago with PER going from 55x to 14x
  • The structural decline in the main business remains although the smaller business has shown some improvement.
  • Japan has received a lot of investors interest recently and Benesse could pick up some investor interest too. 

Advisors’ Disclosure Is Inadequate and Other Companies May Have Similar Cases

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Corporate governance report and securities report were inadequate because it was not possible to get a complete picture of how many advisors other than ex-CEOs were involved in the company.
  • Mitsubishi Electric, which has suffered scandals, has revealed that “senior advisors” have been involved in its management. However, it is possible that advisors influence management at other companies as well.
  • The ex-CEO isn’t necessarily in charge of industry association activities, the compensation of the advisors is undisclosed, and Mitsubishi Electric still has a ways to go in improving management transparency.

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Daily Brief Japan: Toshiba Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, China Resources Power, Chindata, Tian An China


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, China Resources Power, Chindata, Tian An China

By David Blennerhassett

  • Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)‘s Board has a Revised Opinion. It has recommended the Offer for reasons which smack of resignation rather than appropriate deliberation. Investors beware.
  • Given CR Power (836 HK)‘s clean energy unit’s profitably, a listing should be a significant event, attracting a wide audience, and probably a premium to other listed green energy plays.
  • Chindata Group (CD US) is unquestionably cheap. But Bain’s indicative Offer is not the answer to long-suffering shareholders.

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