Category

Japan

Daily Brief Japan: NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone), Kyoden Co Ltd, Softbank Group, Inpex Corp, FUJIFILM Holdings, Universal Entertainment and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Amari Ni Mo… NTT (9432)
  • Kyoden (6881 JP) MBO – An Small, Easy, Illiquid, Light But Not Horribly Unfair Done Deal at ¥600
  • Softbank (9984 JP): WeWork on the Brink and Other Factors
  • Kyoden Company (6881 JP): Founder’s JPY600 Tender Offer
  • Inpex (1605 JP) – Earnings, Forecasts and a BIGLY Buyback (Aug 2023 Version)
  • Fujifilm: Earnings Beat; Yet to Trade in Line with Healthcare Players
  • Universal Entertainment: Pivoting Our Bullish Focus to Basic Verticals from Okada Casino Only


Amari Ni Mo… NTT (9432)

By Travis Lundy

  • NTT reports a Q1 which looks like KDDI where the business looks like KDDI and a bit better than that where it doesn’t. Good. Not great. 
  • But NTT announced a ¥200bn buyback. Again good. Not great. 
  • And on Sunday, LDP politician Amari spoke on a Sunday news show about the possible govt selldown of NTT shares. 20yrs is a long time. So no overhang.

Kyoden (6881 JP) MBO – An Small, Easy, Illiquid, Light But Not Horribly Unfair Done Deal at ¥600

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, the personal holding company of Kyoden Co Ltd (6881 JP) founder Hashimoto-san announced a Tender Offer to take the company private. 
  • Together with his company, he owns 64.75%. He only needs 1.93% to tender. The combination of Shokochukin, SMBC, and Yokohama Bank get him over the line. 
  • This is small, illiquid, and will trade tight, but it’s a done deal. 

Softbank (9984 JP): WeWork on the Brink and Other Factors

By Victor Galliano

  • Softbank and the Vision Fund’s exposure to WeWork – estimated at USD1.8bn – look increasingly to be at risk of being written off
  • Masa’s debts to SoftBank stand at USD5.1bn at 1QFY23 end and we believe that private company valuations are vulnerable, especially in the light of the recent Union Square Ventures write-downs
  • Softbank shares trade at a 36% discount to the stated NAV; with Alibaba gone, the potential Arm IPO valuation is critical but SVF1 and 2 private company valuations remain questionable

Kyoden Company (6881 JP): Founder’s JPY600 Tender Offer

By Arun George

  • Kyoden Co Ltd (6881 JP) has recommended the founder’s tender offer of JPY600 per share, a 32.5% premium to the undisturbed price (9 August).
  • The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 1.91% ownership ratio.
  • The minimum acceptance condition (lower limit) requires an undemanding 5.4% minority acceptance rate. The tender offer is reasonable. 

Inpex (1605 JP) – Earnings, Forecasts and a BIGLY Buyback (Aug 2023 Version)

By Travis Lundy

  • A year ago I wrote that same headline as Inpex Corp (1605 JP) reported H1 results, a change in forecasts, and a bigly buyback.
  • Yesterday, Inpex reported FY2023 H1 results, a change in forecasts, and a bigly buyback. 
  • The mechanics are the same. The impact is a bit different, but it is worth looking at. Then there is the event on 28 February 2024.

Fujifilm: Earnings Beat; Yet to Trade in Line with Healthcare Players

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • FUJIFILM Holdings (4901 JP) reported 1QFY03/24 results today. Both revenue and OP increased 5.6% and 5.2% YoY to ¥660.8bn (vs consensus ¥649bn) and ¥52.2bn (vs consensus ¥52.1bn) respectively.
  • Materials segment’s earnings were negatively impacted during the quarter due to a stagnant semiconductor market, however, we expect segment’s earnings to improve with the completion of Entegris acquisition.
  • Despite the company successfully transitioning into a healthcare player, Fujifilm is still trading in line with imaging/photocopy players and there is significant upside to the company’s current share price.

Universal Entertainment: Pivoting Our Bullish Focus to Basic Verticals from Okada Casino Only

By Howard J Klein

  • We have been covering UE for five years principally because we were bullish about its intentions to bring its Manila casino business public.
  • Our focus has shifted. We see the casino IPO as inevitable but we like the stock now because it has performed well in its core Pachinko and media businesses post-covid. 
  • If the Okada casino deal gest past current legal issues it would be a catalyst “bonus” to holders who come into the stock now, on a slight dip.

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Daily Brief Japan: Lasertec Corp, Kenedix Office Investment Co, Toshiba Corp, Fancl Corp, Shofu Inc, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, Agile Property Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • 2023 JPX Nikkei 400 Rebal – 38 IN, 36 OUT, 4.2% One Way Flow
  • Kenedix Merger: Big Passive Inflows on the Cards
  • Toshiba (6502) Tender Offer – Kioxia Optionality
  • Fancl: Not Out of the Woods Yet
  • Shofu (7979 JP) – Domestic Star Franchise Aiming for Global Center Stage
  • Gender Wage Gap Has Structural Problems and a Less than Positive Attitude of Companies
  • Morning Views Asia: Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, Softbank Group


2023 JPX Nikkei 400 Rebal – 38 IN, 36 OUT, 4.2% One Way Flow

By Travis Lundy

  • The Tenth Annual JPX Nikkei 400 Index Review was announced on Monday 7 August. There are 38 Inclusions, 36 Deletions. They are mostly in line with Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA‘s predictions.
  • The BIG SELL is T&D Holdings (8795 JP), which surprised me. The top BUY is ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP) which was not on the Quiddity Leaderboard.
  • Otherwise, the ADDs and DELETEs are 1.8-2.0 days of ADV, there are several NEW CAPs and some RECAPS among LARGE CAPS

Kenedix Merger: Big Passive Inflows on the Cards

By Brian Freitas


Toshiba (6502) Tender Offer – Kioxia Optionality

By Travis Lundy

  • Yesterday, JIP finally announced its Tender Offer for Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) as discussed in JIP Tender Offer for Toshiba (6502) Finally Here 
  • I got a few questions this morning on the earnings call comments from Chairman Watanabe regarding what might happen if a Kioxia Transaction were announced mid-JIP Tender.
  • My assumption before, during, and after, is that the Board wants this deal done. And doesn’t really want to take any responsibility for pushing any more.

Fancl: Not Out of the Woods Yet

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Fancl released 1QFY24 results last week. While revenue was broadly in line with consensus at ¥27.2bn (consensus ¥26.9bn), OP beat consensus by around 27% to generate an OP of ¥3.2bn.
  • While there were certain performance improvements in the flagship brands “FANCL” and “ATTENIR” during FQ1, there are no definitive signs that they are completely out of trouble.
  • Meanwhile, it looks like competition has affected Fancl Corp (4921 JP)’s plan to cut advertising costs. Thus, FY24 OP guidance could be under pressure.

Shofu (7979 JP) – Domestic Star Franchise Aiming for Global Center Stage

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • From a niche player to a global high-flyer – Shofu is a domestic market leader in developing and manufacturing dental materials and equipment.

  • With its proprietary technology and expertise, it is aiming to become a global top 10 player with a strategic focus on overseas expansion.

  • With an addressable market estimated to become up to 20 times larger than Japan, growth prospects are high and the company is gaining solid traction with FY3/2023 results set to reach record highs.


Gender Wage Gap Has Structural Problems and a Less than Positive Attitude of Companies

By Aki Matsumoto

  • To narrow the gender wage gap for all workers, reducing non-regular female workers, who make up the majority, is a possible solution, but changing this structure will not be easy.
  • Many companies recognize that the low ratio of female managers (about 10% among listed companies) is behind the gender wage gap among regular workers.
  • However, many companies aren’t taking immediate actions because they believe that % of female managers will increase as the age of newly hired female full-time hires in recent years increases.

Morning Views Asia: Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, Softbank Group

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Japan: Toshiba Corp, ROHM Co Ltd, Bank of Kyoto, TRYT , CELSYS, Yakult Honsha, Star Asia Investment, Keyence Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • JIP Tender Offer for Toshiba (6502) Finally Here
  • JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: Some Big Impact Names
  • Bank of Kyoto (8369) – Too Far Too Fast
  • Toshiba – The Tender Arrives
  • Toshiba (6502 JP): Tender Offer Launches, 1Q Results Increase Deal Risks
  • TRYT IPO: Down 25% and Upside Is Limited
  • TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Aug 2023)
  • Yakult: At Its Lowest PE Since Before the Global Financial Crisis
  • Star Asia Investment Placement – Past Deals Have Held Up, REIT on Track to Meet Its Midterm Targets
  • Keyence (6861 JP): Higher S,G&A Takes Down Operating Margin


JIP Tender Offer for Toshiba (6502) Finally Here

By Travis Lundy

  • The JIP TOB for Toshiba is here. Finally. It is still too low. Since the announcement, when it was too low, peers are up a lot, and memory looks healthier.
  • But it is not clear that activists who pushed this for years want to push any more. There appears to be Toshiba Fatigue, as I warned in March.
  • That makes this deal look “safe” but there are technical aspects which make it less “comfortable” than normal large and long-awaited deals. 

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: Some Big Impact Names

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 38 adds/36 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
  • Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 4.35% and a two-way trade of JPY 461bn (US$3.24bn).
  • There are a few stocks that will have same way flow from other index trackers within a few weeks of the JPX Nikkei 400 Index rebalance.

Bank of Kyoto (8369) – Too Far Too Fast

By Travis Lundy

  • Bank of Kyoto (8369 JP) has been on a relative tear recently. This is a bit surprising.  On a static equity-portfolio discount measure, it has outperformed regional banks.
  • On a static regional bank PBR basis, it has outperformed its equity portfolio and the discount to the After Tax Equity Portfolio Value (ATEPV) is the smallest in eight years.
  • Is there a sea change? There is a possibility, however remote, that domestic investor disappointment rears its voting head. That’s the dream scenario. But I don’t see it coming soon.

Toshiba – The Tender Arrives

By Mio Kato

  • At long last the end to the Toshiba saga appears at hand with JIP’s belated tender offer being formally announced today at the previously quoted price of ¥4,620. 
  • With a minimum target of 66.7% this does not seem guaranteed to pass but we nevertheless believe that odds are good. 
  • The question is whether there is any room for a small hike in the price as alluded to by the Chairman.

Toshiba (6502 JP): Tender Offer Launches, 1Q Results Increase Deal Risks

By Arun George

  • Japan Industrial Partners (JIP) will launch the Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) tender offer of JPY4,620 per share from 8 August to 20 September.
  • The Board has reaffirmed its recommendation to accept the offer. JIP’s inability to raise its bid is used as an excuse to ignore the material peer rerating and unattractive terms.
  • The 1Q results undermine the Board’s view of an overstated DCF and show its unwillingness to entertain a potential Kioxia merger as a superior alternative, increasing deal risks. 

TRYT IPO: Down 25% and Upside Is Limited

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • TRYT’s shares started trading on TSE on 24th July. The IPO was priced at ¥1,200 per share and closed at ¥876 per share at the end of first day trading.
  • The company’s shares are currently trading at around ¥900 per share, at a 25% discount to TRYT (9164 JP) ‘s IPO price.
  • We recommended staying on the sidelines as the company’s IPO was overvalued and our DCF valuation suggests that shares are fairly valued at the current price.

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Aug 2023)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
  • Plus Alpha Consulting (4071 JP) will be included in TOPIX at the end of August 2023 and so far the stock has performed negatively as expected (see link).
  • Our long-term TOPIX pre-event name CELSYS (3663 JP) has seen its share price decline sharply in the last few weeks which raises some important questions.

Yakult: At Its Lowest PE Since Before the Global Financial Crisis

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Yakult Honsha (2267 JP)‘s OP fell short of market expectations by ¥500 million in 1QFY24, leading to a 15% drop in the company’s share price.
  • With the post earnings price reaction, Yakult’s FY+2 PE has fallen to its lowest level since before the global financial crisis, currently standing at around 18.7x.
  • We think this price reaction is unwarranted as the fundamentals haven’t changed. Thus, creates an opportunity for short-term gains by staying bullish on the stock.

Star Asia Investment Placement – Past Deals Have Held Up, REIT on Track to Meet Its Midterm Targets

By Clarence Chu

  • Star Asia Investment (3468 JP) is looking to raise around US$180m in its extended primary follow-on raising. The proceeds will be used to acquire 12 new hotels.
  • The deal would be a large deal to digest at 110 days of three month ADV, with the new shares representing around 19% of dilution.
  • The REIT has undertaken capital raisings over the past few years to fund its active portfolio management strategy. Thus, we would argue that the deal here is well flagged. 

Keyence (6861 JP): Higher S,G&A Takes Down Operating Margin

By Scott Foster

  • 1Q sales growth was strong, but the operating margin was squeezed by the cost of overseas expansion.
  • The company’s finances remains very strong, but balance sheet ratios reflect the loss of earnings momentum and the dividend payout remains low.
  • Shares sold off on margin contraction, but valuations still  high. A quick rebound cannot be taken for granted.

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Daily Brief Japan: NGK Insulators, JSR Corp, Toshiba Corp, Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry, Astellas Pharma, Z Holdings, Yamato Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan – Increase in Shorts on Some Interesting Stocks
  • Merger Arb Mondays (07 Aug) – JSR, ITOCHU, Allkem, Origin, Symbio, Pacific Current, United Malt, MPI
  • Weekly Deals Digest (06 Aug) – Toshiba, E-Guardian, ITOCHU, Allkem, Symbio, Pacific Current, MPI
  • Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP): J-STAR’s JPY1,137 Tender Offer
  • Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): Mixed Q1 Result; FY24 Profit Guidance Cut; New Drug Approval
  • [Z Holdings (4689 JP, SELL, TP JPY 340) Target Price Change]: Continued Impact of Chinese E-Commerce
  • Trucker Call for End to Free Shipping Will Help Relieve Pressure on Yamato


Japan – Increase in Shorts on Some Interesting Stocks

By Brian Freitas



Weekly Deals Digest (06 Aug) – Toshiba, E-Guardian, ITOCHU, Allkem, Symbio, Pacific Current, MPI

By Arun George


Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP): J-STAR’s JPY1,137 Tender Offer

By Arun George

  • Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP)/YSK has recommended J-STAR’s tender offer of JPY1,137 per share, a 35.0% premium to the undisturbed price (4 August).
  • The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 66.67% ownership ratio.
  • YSK is cash rich, and the offer is below book value. The tender offer is a reasonable alternative in challenging trading conditions that have slashed operating margin targets. 

Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): Mixed Q1 Result; FY24 Profit Guidance Cut; New Drug Approval

By Tina Banerjee

  • Astellas Pharma (4503 JP) reported Q1FY24 results, with revenue beating and operating and net profit missing consensus. Revenue declined 2%, while operating and net profit increased 17% and 13%, respectively.
  • Astellas has reiterated FY24 revenue guidance of ¥1,520B, while reduced operating profit guidance by ¥29B to ¥259B (+95% YoY) and net profit guidance by ¥23B to ¥204B (+106% YoY).
  • On August 4, Iveric Bio has received FDA approval for Izervay for the treatment of geographic atrophy secondary to age-related macular degeneration, which impacts approximately 1.5M people in the U.S.  

[Z Holdings (4689 JP, SELL, TP JPY 340) Target Price Change]: Continued Impact of Chinese E-Commerce

By Shawn Yang

  • ZHD reported F1Q/C2Q23 top-line, non-GAAP operating profit and non-GAAP net profit in-line, in-line and (32%) vs. consensus, respectively. Earnings miss was driven by wider tax expense.  
  • ZHD’s B2C e-commerce platform GMV continued to decline, which we suspect is due to the continued impact of STAT, especially Shein.
  • We maintain SELL and raise TP to JPY 340 due to improved ads-spending, but we expect the transient ad spend increase to be offset by loss of ecommerce customers. 

Trucker Call for End to Free Shipping Will Help Relieve Pressure on Yamato

By Michael Causton

  • Transport industry officials want to ban ‘free shipping’, forcing customers to pay for all deliveries and even redeliveries.
  • The aim is to reduce demand in time for new rules on driver overtime due to come into force next year and should relieve pressure on Yamato and others.
  • There is also more collaboration to reduce costs and labour: Yamato has scrapped its small packet business entirely, passing customers on to Japan Post. 

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Daily Brief Japan: Nippon Yusen Kk, Mercari , Eisai Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Nippon Yusen, Takara, Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, PCCW/HKT, ANZ
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, STAR50, NIFTY NEXT50, SF Holding
  • Eisai Co (4523 JP): Better-Than-Expected Q1FY24 Result; Reaffirmed FY24 Guidance


Last Week in Event SPACE: Nippon Yusen, Takara, Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, PCCW/HKT, ANZ

By David Blennerhassett


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, STAR50, NIFTY NEXT50, SF Holding

By Brian Freitas


Eisai Co (4523 JP): Better-Than-Expected Q1FY24 Result; Reaffirmed FY24 Guidance

By Tina Banerjee

  • Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP) reported 7% YoY revenue growth in Q1FY24, due to the growth of anticancer agent Lenvima mainly in the U.S. and insomnia treatment Dayvigo in Japan.
  • The company has reiterated FY24 guidance, which calls for 4% YoY revenue decline, 25% YoY growth in operating profit, and 31% YoY decline in net profit.
  • On July 6, 2023, Eisai received full FDA approval for Leqembi (lecanemab) injection for the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease. Leqembi is progressing steadily toward treating 10K U.S. patients in FY24.

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Daily Brief Japan: iShares MSCI ACWI ETF, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Normal Pullback, or Something More?; Watching Resistance on DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys
  • Increasing Attention to the Role Played by Individuals in the Rising Trend of Stock Ownership


Normal Pullback, or Something More?; Watching Resistance on DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys

By Joe Jasper

  • Global equities are under some pressure after Fitch downgraded the United States’ credit rating to AA+ from AAA.
  • We expect that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the 50-day MA or major $93 support level on the MSCI ACWI iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US) .
  • $TNX is below 4.1%-4.3% and DXY remains in an 8-month downtrend; as long as this remains true, we’d buy on a pullback to the 50-day MA and/or $93 on ACWI-US

Increasing Attention to the Role Played by Individuals in the Rising Trend of Stock Ownership

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The percentage of stockholdings by individuals will continue rising. Their tendency to buy-on-decline will continue to serve as a cushion in times of falling stocks as well as voting behavior.
  • Now that the BOJ’s ETF purchases have subsided, an increase in trust bank stock holdings is not expected. A limited increase in pension assets is also expected.
  • The reduction in cross-shareholdings has reduced the shareholding ratio of corporations to 19.6%. Meanwhile, corporations repurchased total of 5,790.7 billion yen in FY2022, indicating that share repurchases have taken root.

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Daily Brief Japan: Nippon Yusen Kk, Toshiba Corp, Takara Holdings, ID Holdings , Kantsu and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Nippon Yusen (9101) BIG Buyback Announced
  • Toshiba (6502 JP): Risk/Reward as 1Q Results and Tender Start Approach
  • StubWorld: Takara Holdings Trading “Rich”
  • ID Holdings (4709) – Seizing DX Opportunities and Driving Growth
  • Full Report – Kantsu (9326 JP)


Nippon Yusen (9101) BIG Buyback Announced

By Travis Lundy

  • In March, NYK announced a new Mid-Term Management Plan discussed in Nippon Yusen – New MidTermPlan = New Shareholder Return Policy. They promised a full Shareholder Return Policy in May. 
  • There was limited new SRP discussion in the 9 May earnings announcement. The MTMP suggested ¥200bn over 2yrs. The (Japanese) earnings announcement did too. Then May ended. 
  • Now the Buyback Plan is out. ¥200bn over 9mos. That is different. This could move. 

Toshiba (6502 JP): Risk/Reward as 1Q Results and Tender Start Approach

By Arun George

  • On 28 July, Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) disclosed that JIP delayed the tender start to “sometime in August 2023” vs the target “in the last ten days of July 2023.
  • Toshiba reports 1Q results on 7 August. A solid 1Q will undermine the Board’s recommendation of the offer in part on the premise that the IFA’s DCF valuation is unrealistic.
  • The current low spread points to a done deal, partly due to shareholder fatigue. However, risks persist as the rerating of peers continues to chip away at the offer’s attractiveness. 

StubWorld: Takara Holdings Trading “Rich”

By David Blennerhassett

  • On an implied stub and simple ratio, Takara Holdings (2531 JP) is trading rich to 60.9%-held Takara Bio Inc (4974 JP).
  • Preceding my comments on Takara are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

ID Holdings (4709) – Seizing DX Opportunities and Driving Growth

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Strategic shifts continue to reap rewards–IDHoldings’Q1 FY3/2024 performance demonstrated a continuation of the robust results experienced in FY3/2023, with DX remaining the core demand driver.
  • Business segment sales in System Management, IT Infrastructure, and Cybersecurity, Consulting, and Training grew strongly YoY, demonstrating that the company’s efforts to remodel its business have been successful to better support and serve its customers.
  • We have kept our earnings estimates unchanged for FY3/2024 and beyond, with the expectation that high-margin DX demand will continue, driving continued profitability improvements in the business.

Full Report – Kantsu (9326 JP)

By Sessa Investment Research

  • Logistics companies serving the high-growth e-commerce industry are likewise showing strong growth.
  • Kantsu is a specialist in warehouse logistics, undertaking the entire upstream logistics process, from order processing to delivery.
  • The company has also created a highly profitable business by selling its in-house IT systems, which it developed to boost efficiency, to external customers. 

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Daily Brief Japan: Itochu Techno Solutions, Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, E Guardian Inc, Ana Holdings, Rakuten Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Itochu To Take Over Itochu Techno Solutions (CTC (4739 JP)) Just As Growth Jumps
  • ITOCHU Techno-Solutions (4739 JP): ITOCHU’s JPY4,325 Tender Offer
  • KLINE (9107) Ups Shareholder Return – Fun & Games May Ensue
  • E-Guardian (6050 JP): CHANGE Holdings’ Partial Tender Offer
  • ANA (9202) | How Much Will It Cost to Capture Carbon Emissions?
  • 2 Rakuten Subsidiaries’ Listings Run Counter to the Dissolution of Parent-Subsidiary Listings
  • SBI Affiliate To Buy 45-49% of E-Guardian (6050) In Partial Tender Offer


Itochu To Take Over Itochu Techno Solutions (CTC (4739 JP)) Just As Growth Jumps

By Travis Lundy

  • Itochu Corp (8001 JP) today announced it had agreed with 61%-owned Itochu Techno Solutions (4739 JP) sub to take over CTC and squeeze out minorities. 
  • The stock released earnings mid-day, somehow, but not on TDNet until post-close. The stock jumped in the last two hours. The Tender Offer is at a 10% premium to close.
  • Growth will be up, and there are lots of financial assets and net receivables so this is 8+x March 2025. Itochu is not overpaying. But there will be no counter.

ITOCHU Techno-Solutions (4739 JP): ITOCHU’s JPY4,325 Tender Offer

By Arun George

  • Itochu Techno Solutions (4739 JP) has recommended Itochu Corp (8001 JP)’s tender offer of JPY4,325 per share, an 18.7% premium to the undisturbed price (1 August).
  • The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 5.43% ownership ratio.
  • The minimum acceptance condition requires a 14% minority acceptance rate. This is doable as the tender price is attractive and equals the 20-year share price high.

KLINE (9107) Ups Shareholder Return – Fun & Games May Ensue

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP) announced Q1 earnings. As expected, net was WAY down on weak container business. But the company revised up H1 and Full-Year.
  • KLINE increased its FY2023 payout, upping its expected buyback plan from ¥50bn to ¥60bn. This is still cheap at 8.5x and 0.7x book, and there is non-container growth. 
  • The structure of the buyback deserves attention. It may deserve a very short-term trade. The buyback construct has the possibility of “fun and games.”

E-Guardian (6050 JP): CHANGE Holdings’ Partial Tender Offer

By Arun George

  • E Guardian Inc (6050 JP) has announced a partial tender offer and third-party allotment with Change Inc (3962 JP). CHANGE will subscribe for 1.5 million shares at JPY2,099 per share.
  • The tender offer is for a minimum of 3.7 million and a maximum of 4.3 million shares at JPY3,000 per share, a 42.9% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • The tender offer is reasonable. The minimum acceptance condition requires a 37% minority acceptance rate. A 100% minority participation rate implies a minimum proration is 42.39%. 

ANA (9202) | How Much Will It Cost to Capture Carbon Emissions?

By Mark Chadwick

  • ANA has just announced that it will purchase carbon removal credits underpinned by Direct Air Capture (DAC)
  • The purchase of 30,000 credits over 3 years is virtually nothing compared to the company’s annual CO2 emissions over 12 million tons
  • Assuming that DAC is expected to remove just 10% of emissions, we estimate that it could wipe out over 70% of operating profit

2 Rakuten Subsidiaries’ Listings Run Counter to the Dissolution of Parent-Subsidiary Listings

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Cash generation through the subsidiaries’ IPOs will only buy time, and investors are likely to focus on when Rakuten will move to solve the problems in its cell phone business.
  • In recent years, TSE’s market reorganization has focused attention on parent-subsidiary listings, and there’ve been moves to convert listed subsidiaries into wholly owned subsidiaries or sell subsidiaries to other companies.
  • For Rakuten, subsidiary IPOs are an essential means of raising cash, but TSE’s recognition of the governance issues involved in parent-subsidiary listings raises questions about Rakuten’s two parent-subsidiary listings.

SBI Affiliate To Buy 45-49% of E-Guardian (6050) In Partial Tender Offer

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, Change Inc (3962 JP) (30%-owned by SBI Holdings (8473 JP)) announced a Tender Offer to buy 32-36.9% of E-Guardian, followed by a third-party placement to get them to 45-49%.
  • Small cap E-Guardian does internet services support, ad processing, cyber security (their fastest growing segment) and top line has been growing.
  • The partial offer is big enough to matter, and up 50%. It is worth a look for people who like small cap special sits.

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Daily Brief Japan: Sekisui Jushi, Mizuho Financial Group, ASICS Corp, Ono Pharmaceutical and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Huge Change at Sekisui Jushi (4212) – 20% Buyback from Erstwhile Controlling Shareholder
  • Mizuho – Strong Balance Sheet Management & With Better Credit Metrics
  • Asics (7936) | Q2 Preview; Guidance Revision
  • Ono Pharmaceutical (4528 JP): Mixed Q1 Result; Guidance Reiterated; Buyback Plan Announced


Huge Change at Sekisui Jushi (4212) – 20% Buyback from Erstwhile Controlling Shareholder

By Travis Lundy

  • In April, Sekisui Jushi (4212 JP) announced lackluster earnings and unsurprising guidance after a year marked by higher costs. It also announced a small (2.5%) buyback, likely for cross-holdings.
  • Yesterday, the company announced Q1 results, and a revision to their buyback programme (to buy 20.2% of shares out). This morning their 22+% (#1) shareholder Sekisui Chemical sold 18%. 
  • Forward PER dropped nearly 20%. The stock is still outrageously cash/securities-rich and if “re-levered” to zero net leverage would get a high 20s ROE. Hmmm…

Mizuho – Strong Balance Sheet Management & With Better Credit Metrics

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Mizuho has well positioned for YCCC relief with its balance sheet management in 1Q24
  • Less low yielding cash assets, higher loans, securities, shift into NCDs, from deposits
  • Mizuho reports credit costs reversals and better credit metrics are clear in NPL detail

Asics (7936) | Q2 Preview; Guidance Revision

By Mark Chadwick

  • Asics is due to report on 8th August. We expect another strong quarter and guidance revision
  • Recent results from Nike bode well for Asics – declining inventories and strong top line performance in China
  • We believe that higher operating margins will be the key stock driver and see 10% upside to fair value

Ono Pharmaceutical (4528 JP): Mixed Q1 Result; Guidance Reiterated; Buyback Plan Announced

By Tina Banerjee

  • Ono Pharmaceutical (4528 JP) recorded 13% YoY revenue growth to ¥120B in Q1FY24, driven by 12% YoY growth in product revenue. Royalty revenue grew 14% YoY.
  • Revenue from Opdivo grew 11% YoY to ¥37.8B, due to expanded use in treatments for gastric cancer, esophageal cancer, urothelial carcinoma, etc. Revenue from Forxiga grew 34% YoY to ¥17.5B.
  • For FY24, Ono continues to expect revenue growth of 6% to ¥475B. Operating and net profits are expected to increase 8% and 2% to ¥153B and ¥115B, respectively, for FY24.

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Daily Brief Japan: Lasertec Corp, Toshiba Corp, Nikkei 225, Mitsui Fudosan Logistics Park Inc, Nihon M&A Center, M3 Inc, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, Simplex Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • JAPAN PASSIVE: Who Owns What 2023?
  • Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2023): Final Look as Review Period Ends
  • Toshiba – Earnings Preview 1QFY24
  • EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) MONTHLY Trajectories
  • Mitsui Fudosan Logistics Park Placement – Fundamentally Sound but Dilutive
  • Nihon M&A: Earnings Miss, No Indication of a Business Turnaround Yet
  • M3: Weak Earnings and Overseas Business Further Slows Down
  • Rather More Proposals that Have to Be Considered for or Against on a Qualitative, Case-By-Case Basis
  • Simplex Holdings (4373) – Firing on All Cylinders and Targeting Long- Term Growth


JAPAN PASSIVE: Who Owns What 2023?

By Travis Lundy

  • The 2023 Version of JAPAN PASSIVE: Who Owns What? where we break down the major (and minor) passive tracking indices and which category of investor owns how much of each. 
  • Even if you do not “play” index changes, understanding impact is important. Advantest is up 100% in 3mos. Existing passive ownership and new passive buying were crucial to that performance.
  • Understanding the nature of the ownership and flows is crucial to understanding how to trade certain stocks in Japan. 

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2023): Final Look as Review Period Ends

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY) September rebalance ended yesterday. There should be three index changes, potential stepwise inclusion, no Fast Retailing capping and a big funding trade.
  • There appears to be decent positioning on the potential adds, while it is the close adds that are spiking along with a big increase in traded volumes.
  • If the three changes are on expected lines, estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 2.01% resulting in a one-way trade of JPY 461bn (US$3.24bn). 

Toshiba – Earnings Preview 1QFY24

By Mio Kato

  • Toshiba announced on Friday that JIP’s upcoming tender offer would not make the July end deadline. 
  • At this point delays for Toshiba are par for the course and we do not think anything needs to be read into this. 
  • With earnings coming up next week we examine the likely trends and the possibility of a revision to guidance.

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) MONTHLY Trajectories

By Nico Rosti

  • The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) rallied +27% in the first 6 months of 2023. 6 months closed up, July closed (barely) down. The index can rise further in Aug/Sep.
  • If August is down, a LONG opportunity: look at support prices between 32391 and 30600,  good probability to see the market going higher from there.
  • If rallying in August, Nikkei could rise between +1.73% (33745) and +3.29% (34265). Continuation of the rally into September could reach higher prices but will encounter resistance at +8.29% (35922).

Mitsui Fudosan Logistics Park Placement – Fundamentally Sound but Dilutive

By Ethan Aw

  • Mitsui Fudosan Logistics Park Inc (3471 JP) is looking to raise US$106m in its primary follow-on offering to acquire three properties and two 50% co-ownership interests in two properties. 
  • The deal is a somewhat large one to digest, at 20 days of three month ADV and 5.3% dilution. 
  • In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Nihon M&A: Earnings Miss, No Indication of a Business Turnaround Yet

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Nihon M&A reported 1QFY03/2024 results on Friday. Both revenue and OP decreased 9.1% and 52.5% YoY to ¥8.2bn (vs consensus ¥9.8bn) and ¥1.7bn (vs consensus ¥3.6bn) respectively.
  • M&A sales decreased yet again in 1Q as the company is struggling to improve revenue per transaction despite there being an increase in the no. of transactions.
  • We think the company may not be able to achieve full-year target given declining per transaction revenues and falling other businesses.

M3: Weak Earnings and Overseas Business Further Slows Down

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • M3 Inc (2413 JP) reported 1QFY03/2024 results on Friday. Revenue increased 0.7% YoY to ¥57.4bn (vs consensus ¥58.1bn) while OP decreased 3.7% YoY to ¥18.0bn (vs consensus ¥18.1bn).
  • Overseas revenue growth further slowed down to 5.3% despite the company expecting overseas business growth to help offset slowdown in pharma marketing business going forward.
  • This proves that m3’s long list of M&A’s have not been really successful as we have not observed any meaningful growth from these new acquisitions.

Rather More Proposals that Have to Be Considered for or Against on a Qualitative, Case-By-Case Basis

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Domestic investment managers are expected to show a higher percentage in favor of shareholder proposals, but life insurances still face a high hurdle in voting in favor of shareholder proposals.
  • It is relatively easy to decide for or against a proposal based on quantitative criteria such as the level of ROE or whether there are zero female directors.
  • Few institutional investors adequately disclose the reasons for approval or disapproval of individual proposals. Disclosure of reasons for approval or disapproval is required for company proposals that are controversial.

Simplex Holdings (4373) – Firing on All Cylinders and Targeting Long- Term Growth

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • High earnings visibility – Q1 FY3/2024 results indicate a robust start to the year with record-high quarterly sales, orders, and backlog.
  • We believe the company exhibits robust earnings visibility, which can be attributed to its adeptness in delivering high-value-added services within a highly competitive market, with its high-quality workforce and sufficient capacity.
  • Aiming for long-term sustainable growth –whilst strong results are appealing, we are encouraged by the following which we believe will allow the business the sustain long-term growth

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