Category

Japan

Brief Japan: Foldable Smartphones to Debut in 2019; Will It Aid an Industry Turnaround? and more

By | Japan

In this briefing:

  1. Foldable Smartphones to Debut in 2019; Will It Aid an Industry Turnaround?
  2. Komatsu, HCM and CAT Tactical Recovery Targets and Macro Pivot Support

1. Foldable Smartphones to Debut in 2019; Will It Aid an Industry Turnaround?

Plans regarding Samsung and Huawei’s foldable smartphones are out. The companies, which happen to be two of the largest contenders in the smartphone landscape are expected to unveil their foldable smartphone prototypes this month. In 4Q2018, Samsung, coming in first place, held a market share of 18.7% while Huawei, in third place, held a market share of 16.1%. Both companies are following different strategies when it comes to their foldable phone models.

The concept of foldable phones revolves around devices that can be folded into the size of a smartphone or opened up in to the size of a tablet. Huawei is said to be planning to introduce their foldable smartphone with 5G compatibility while Samsung is planning to release their foldable model with 4G compatibility. The market leader aims to leverage the expertise it has gained on its display technologies in its foldable smartphones.

2. Komatsu, HCM and CAT Tactical Recovery Targets and Macro Pivot Support

We thought a technical view on these counters would help clarify where tactical rally targets come into play as well as more important macro support levels where a basing process is expected to begin.

Key resistance points can be used as short zones with key pivots stops and limit levels that reign in risk.

All three stocks display varying degrees of a macro descending corrective wedge formations that have yet to fully mature. 

CAT stands out as the more buoyant of the group and faces its own set of upside pivot resistance points with solid macro support to work with on weakness.

We wanted to fold in a technical view with Mio Kato, CFA and his insight Komatsu, HCM, CAT: The Stock Punishment Does Not Match the Outlook Deterioration Crime . This group may be ahead of the earnings curve and why we may see more gas in a corrective bounce cycle (CB easy policy and the hunt for value may be part of the rally) before more pressure points are hit to re test macro support targets.

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Brief Japan: Japanese Convenience Stores: Shorter Hours and more

By | Japan

In this briefing:

  1. Japanese Convenience Stores: Shorter Hours
  2. Hankyu Invests ¥1.75 Billion in Hankyu Men’s Tokyo
  3. Uniqlo Japan’s Most Valuable Retail Brand
  4. After Zozo: Onward Sets Sights on Digital Renaissance
  5. Japan Stock Weekly

1. Japanese Convenience Stores: Shorter Hours

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Today almost all the 50,000 stores run by the big three convenience store chains operate 24-hours a day, but franchise owners everywhere are struggling to find enough staff.

Last month, the owners’ union of the biggest chain, Seven Eleven, issued a demand that each store be allowed to set its own hours.

This move has implications for a retail industry struggling with labour shortages and higher part-time wages.

2. Hankyu Invests ¥1.75 Billion in Hankyu Men’s Tokyo

Hankyumens

Hankyu Hanshin has outperformed the department store sector in the last few years and continues to invest to lock in its dominance of the Osaka market.

It is now about to unveil a major new update to its Tokyo store, creating a more luxurious Men’s Emporium.

The investment is an example of how the better department stores are repositioning individual buildings to better meet target market needs and find relevance in an e-commerce age.

3. Uniqlo Japan’s Most Valuable Retail Brand

Brands

Interbrand’s annual valuation of top brands saw growing numbers of Japanese firms in retail and FMCG (Fast Moving Consumer Goods) enter its global brand ranking.

At home, online companies like Zozo and Mercari are also climbing the rankings.

4. After Zozo: Onward Sets Sights on Digital Renaissance

Screenshot%202019 02 20%20at%2011.21.56

Onward Holdings (8016 JP) made a bold stand against price discounts in January when it announced plans to stop selling on ZOZO (3092 JP) but the timing was not ideal as Onward lowered its FY2018 sales guidance shortly thereafter..

With Zozo no longer a partner, Onward is investing in the growth of its own e-commerce business and has installed a new 50-person digital strategy group to make this happen.

If the plan works, Onward could finally break away from its dependence on the contracting department store apparel market but the journey to reach this goal will be a long one.

5. Japan Stock Weekly

6406

Takamatsu Construction (1762)

It is possible that 3/19 results may fall a bit short of estimates but next year will see a decent bounce in earnings given the good orders currently being seen. The shares are very cheap on 2x 3/20 EV/ebitda so we do not see much down side risk here, but any such weakness should be views as a great buying opportunity. This is a well-run and conservative business in an otherwise often poorly run sector. Eventually there must also be the possibility of a higher payout ratio. In our view, however, this is later rather than soon but must come. A decent long term buy in the construction space.

Fujitec (6406)

The shares are cheap. The company is cash rich and owns 10% in treasury stock; it owned more last year but has cancelled 4%. It has some Y6bn in long term investment. EV in our view is Y57bn vs the current market cap of Y110bn. With ebitda next year coming in at Y15bn, EV/ebitda is under 4x. The shares yield 3.4% and trade at book. They have slightly underperformed the market over the last 12 months. For now, we view this as a defensive buy. There remain many issues longer term as to its place in the global elevator world. A potential positive, however, is that in May the company will announce a new mid-term plan and in it, they will outline their view as regards to shareholder returns for the next three years. They are aware that they are very over capitalised, so greater returns are a real possibility.

Prored (7034) 

Good, first quarter results and in our view, an upward to come. 

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Brief Japan: Komatsu, HCM and CAT Tactical Recovery Targets and Macro Pivot Support and more

By | Japan

In this briefing:

  1. Komatsu, HCM and CAT Tactical Recovery Targets and Macro Pivot Support

1. Komatsu, HCM and CAT Tactical Recovery Targets and Macro Pivot Support

We thought a technical view on these counters would help clarify where tactical rally targets come into play as well as more important macro support levels where a basing process is expected to begin.

Key resistance points can be used as short zones with key pivots stops and limit levels that reign in risk.

All three stocks display varying degrees of a macro descending corrective wedge formations that have yet to fully mature. 

CAT stands out as the more buoyant of the group and faces its own set of upside pivot resistance points with solid macro support to work with on weakness.

We wanted to fold in a technical view with Mio Kato, CFA and his insight Komatsu, HCM, CAT: The Stock Punishment Does Not Match the Outlook Deterioration Crime . This group may be ahead of the earnings curve and why we may see more gas in a corrective bounce cycle (CB easy policy and the hunt for value may be part of the rally) before more pressure points are hit to re test macro support targets.

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.



Brief Japan: Foldable Smartphones to Debut in 2019; Will It Aid an Industry Turnaround? and more

By | Japan

In this briefing:

  1. Foldable Smartphones to Debut in 2019; Will It Aid an Industry Turnaround?
  2. Komatsu, HCM and CAT Tactical Recovery Targets and Macro Pivot Support
  3. BoJ Steps in as ECB Exits
  4. Japan Department Store Apparel Sales Down 35% in a Decade

1. Foldable Smartphones to Debut in 2019; Will It Aid an Industry Turnaround?

Plans regarding Samsung and Huawei’s foldable smartphones are out. The companies, which happen to be two of the largest contenders in the smartphone landscape are expected to unveil their foldable smartphone prototypes this month. In 4Q2018, Samsung, coming in first place, held a market share of 18.7% while Huawei, in third place, held a market share of 16.1%. Both companies are following different strategies when it comes to their foldable phone models.

The concept of foldable phones revolves around devices that can be folded into the size of a smartphone or opened up in to the size of a tablet. Huawei is said to be planning to introduce their foldable smartphone with 5G compatibility while Samsung is planning to release their foldable model with 4G compatibility. The market leader aims to leverage the expertise it has gained on its display technologies in its foldable smartphones.

2. Komatsu, HCM and CAT Tactical Recovery Targets and Macro Pivot Support

We thought a technical view on these counters would help clarify where tactical rally targets come into play as well as more important macro support levels where a basing process is expected to begin.

Key resistance points can be used as short zones with key pivots stops and limit levels that reign in risk.

All three stocks display varying degrees of a macro descending corrective wedge formations that have yet to fully mature. 

CAT stands out as the more buoyant of the group and faces its own set of upside pivot resistance points with solid macro support to work with on weakness.

We wanted to fold in a technical view with Mio Kato, CFA and his insight Komatsu, HCM, CAT: The Stock Punishment Does Not Match the Outlook Deterioration Crime . This group may be ahead of the earnings curve and why we may see more gas in a corrective bounce cycle (CB easy policy and the hunt for value may be part of the rally) before more pressure points are hit to re test macro support targets.

3. BoJ Steps in as ECB Exits

Sk1

By Shweta Singh, Managing Director Global Macro

  • Global central banks turning dovish
  • But BoJ maybe the only DM central bank ‘properly’ injecting liquidity this year
  • European debt – including Italian BTPs – could benefit the most  

4. Japan Department Store Apparel Sales Down 35% in a Decade

Screenshot%202019 02 20%20at%2011.21.56

Last month, the Japan Department Store Association (JDSA) announced a 1.1% drop in sales at department stores for calendar year 2018, with sales also down 0.8% on a same-store basis.

This was a reasonable result in a year when there were many store closures, both permanent and temporary, and slow traffic due to extreme weather events, and of course the background trend of an ageing consumer base.

However, the underlying trend remains clear: apparel sales continue to fall, down more than a third in a decade. Meanwhile, cosmetics has seen its share of sales double.

Since apparel accounts for 30% of department store sales on average and as much as 50% for regional stores, this is a serious weakness. With competition from speciality chains and online intensifying yet further and department stores themselves cutting space for apparel, there is unlikely to be any respite.

For this reason, and with further store closures planned in the next few years, the department store sector will continue to contract.

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Brief Japan: Japan: Upcycle Intact and more

By | Japan

In this briefing:

  1. Japan: Upcycle Intact

1. Japan: Upcycle Intact

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Following 3Q’s contraction, economic activity rebounded in the final quarter of 2018 led  by investment spending. Global trade tensions and the planned increase in the consumption tax in 2019 are headwinds but we expect the Japanese economy to sail through. The investment upcycle remains intact underpinned by rising profits and consumption spending well supported by easy monetary and fiscal policy. We reiterate our overweight call on Japanese equities.

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

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Brief Japan: Japan: Upcycle Intact and more

By | Japan

In this briefing:

  1. Japan: Upcycle Intact
  2. Naspers: Softbank Buyback a Guide for Naspers?

1. Japan: Upcycle Intact

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Following 3Q’s contraction, economic activity rebounded in the final quarter of 2018 led  by investment spending. Global trade tensions and the planned increase in the consumption tax in 2019 are headwinds but we expect the Japanese economy to sail through. The investment upcycle remains intact underpinned by rising profits and consumption spending well supported by easy monetary and fiscal policy. We reiterate our overweight call on Japanese equities.

2. Naspers: Softbank Buyback a Guide for Naspers?

Sk%20holdcos%20 %20softbank%20group%20%289984%20jp%29%20%282019 02 19%29

Recently, Softbank’s (9984 JP) shares jumped +18% after announcing a $5.5bn share buyback. Using Smartkarma’s holdco monitor, the discount to NAV had widened to around 55% prior to the announcement but is now sitting around 40-45%. There were a few key reasons for the buyback: (1) the Softbank Corp (9434 JP) (KK) IPO netted $20bn, giving the company the flexibility to do the buyback, and (2) Softbank is taking a more disciplined approach to further platform investments.

Both these arguments are also available to Naspers (NPN SJ) management and a move to buy back 5% of market cap is feasible and we believe would narrow the discount. The question is whether management are listening. They have been dismissive of buybacks in the past but this could change.

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.



Brief Japan: Japan Stock Weekly and more

By | Japan

In this briefing:

  1. Japan Stock Weekly
  2. CATL Could Be Tesla’s New Battery Supplier- Panasonic in Trouble?
  3. Mercari (4385) A Great Business but over Priced
  4. TRADE IDEA – Amorepacific Stub (002790 KS): Buyback Helped, Close the Trade
  5. Murakami-San Goes Hostile on Kosaido (7868 JP), Overbids Bain’s “Final” Offer

1. Japan Stock Weekly

1762

Takamatsu Construction (1762)

It is possible that 3/19 results may fall a bit short of estimates but next year will see a decent bounce in earnings given the good orders currently being seen. The shares are very cheap on 2x 3/20 EV/ebitda so we do not see much down side risk here, but any such weakness should be views as a great buying opportunity. This is a well-run and conservative business in an otherwise often poorly run sector. Eventually there must also be the possibility of a higher payout ratio. In our view, however, this is later rather than soon but must come. A decent long term buy in the construction space.

Fujitec (6406)

The shares are cheap. The company is cash rich and owns 10% in treasury stock; it owned more last year but has cancelled 4%. It has some Y6bn in long term investment. EV in our view is Y57bn vs the current market cap of Y110bn. With ebitda next year coming in at Y15bn, EV/ebitda is under 4x. The shares yield 3.4% and trade at book. They have slightly underperformed the market over the last 12 months. For now, we view this as a defensive buy. There remain many issues longer term as to its place in the global elevator world. A potential positive, however, is that in May the company will announce a new mid-term plan and in it, they will outline their view as regards to shareholder returns for the next three years. They are aware that they are very over capitalised, so greater returns are a real possibility.

Prored (7034) 

Good, first quarter results and in our view, an upward to come. 

2. CATL Could Be Tesla’s New Battery Supplier- Panasonic in Trouble?

The news released on the 11th of March, about Tesla Motors (TSLA US) choosing CATL (A) (300750 CH) as battery supplier has focused much attention on the two companies and other battery suppliers. CATL which grabbed Panasonic Corp (6752 JP)’s leading position in the industry last year now seems to be grabbing the latter’s key customer as well. The news circulating states that, CATL could power Tesla’s Model 3 cars which Tesla is planning to start assembling at Tesla’s new factory near Shanghai. Following the release of this supposed deal, the stocks of the two companies moved positively, with CATL surging by almost 6.7% while Tesla rose by almost 2.4% during the day.  However, both parties have not commented on this news yet or made any formal announcement regarding such a potential deal. In our Insight, Tesla Drifting Away Could Leave Panasonic Struggling to Gain Traction in China, we mentioned that Tesla was looking to locally source its batteries in China and that CATL could potentially be one such supplier. However, in January this year, it was reported that Tesla had signed a preliminary agreement with China’s Tianjin Lishen to supply batteries for its new Shanghai car factory, making the current news look less believable. Although it seems like the ongoing news about a Tesla-CATL pair up lacks integrity, with CATL sort of denying its intend to work with Tesla (according to an updated news release), the news does look interesting and its effect upon the related companies seems noteworthy.

3. Mercari (4385) A Great Business but over Priced

4385

Established in 2013, this has been a huge success story in Japan. The company operates the largest C to C mobile app that allows customers to trade in second hand goods with each other. Growth has been phenomenal. In the year to 6/15, Mercari had revenue of Y4.2bn, three years later (6/18) this had risen to Y35.7bn. This growth carries on, first half revenue this year to December 2018 rose 45% to Y23.7bn. It has begun an operation in the US, currently loss making, and has just introduced “Merpay”, a prepaid card incorporated into one’s mobile phone along the lines of Suica that allows users to purchase goods and pay bills. Funds can be deposited following a sale on Mercari’s site or transferred from a bank. Revenue will probably continue to grow at a rapid pace and whilst there are some that will jump on board, it is impossible to come up with any sensible valuation that can really justify a purchase here. There is no p.e.r. and the company will be loss making for the next couple of years. Its market cap of Y440bn means that it is trading on perhaps 6x 6/20 sales. On top of this, there are risks with regards to the viability of its US operation. Management appear to be aware to this and have set certain time limits for a turn around. There are many BUYS out on this name, thematically it has much going for it, but the valuation leaves us cold.

4. TRADE IDEA – Amorepacific Stub (002790 KS): Buyback Helped, Close the Trade

In my original insight on January 15, 2019 TRADE IDEA: Amorepacific (002790 KS) Stub: A Beautiful Opportunity, I proposed setting up a stub trade to profit from the mis-priced stub business of Amorepacific that was trading at its widest discount to NAV in at least three years. During the 65 calendar days that followed, Amorepacific Group (002790 KS) has gained 7.3% and the outperformed Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS) by 2.84%. The trade has reverted to average levels in a period of about two months and in this insight I will outline why I think the trade is over.

In this insight I will discuss:

  • Performance of ALL my recommended stub trades
  • a post-trade analysis on the Amorepacific stub

5. Murakami-San Goes Hostile on Kosaido (7868 JP), Overbids Bain’s “Final” Offer

I should have seen this coming. The asset is juicy enough, and they have a large enough stake, and the company is small enough, that this is an easy trade to do if you can get the funding. It makes eminent sense to be able to put the money down and go for it. 

I have covered this minor disaster of an MBO (Management BuyOut) of Kosaido Co Ltd (7868 JP) since it was launched, with the original question of what one could do (other than refuse). Famed/notorious Japanese activist Yoshiaki Murakami and his associated companies started buying in and then the stock quickly cleared the Bain Capital Japan vehicle’s bid price. The deal was extended, then the Bain bid was raised to ¥700/share last week with the minimum threshold set at 50.01% not 66.67% but still the shares had not traded that low, and did not following the news. But Bain played chicken with Murakami and the market in its amended filing, including the words 「公開買付者は、本開買付条件の変更後の本公開買付価格を最終的なものとし、今後、本公開買付価格を一切変更しないことの決定をしております。」which roughly translates to “The Offeror, having changed the terms, has made This Tender Offer Price final, and from this point onward, has decided to absolutely not raise the Tender Offer Price.”

So now Murakami-san has launched a Tender Offer of his own. Murakami-affiliated entities Minami Aoyama Fudosan KK and Reno KK have launched a Tender Offer at ¥750/share to buy a minimum of 9,100,900 shares and a maximum of all remaining shares. The entities currently own 3,355,900 shares (13.47%) between them – up from 11.71% reported up through yesterday [as noted in yesterday’s insight, it looked likely from the volume and trading patterns prior to yesterday’s Large Shareholder Report that they had continued buying]. 

Buying a minimum of 9,100,900 shares at ¥750/share should be easier for Murakami-san’s bidding entity than buying a minimum of 12,456,800 shares (Bain Capital’s minimum threshold) at ¥700/share, but the Murakami TOB Tender Agent is Mita Securities, which is a lesser-known agent and it is possible that the main agent for the Bain tender (SMBC Securities) could make life difficult for its account holders.

The likelihood that Murakami-san doesn’t have his bid funded or won’t follow through is, in my eyes, effectively zero. Tender Offer announcements are vetted by both the Kanto Local Finance Bureau and the Stock Exchange. You know this has been in the works for a couple of weeks simply because of that aspect. But one of the two documents released today includes an explanation of the process Murakami-san’s companies have gone through to arrive at this bid, and that tells you it may have gone on longer.

So what next? The easy answer is there is now a put at ¥750/share. Unless there is not. Weirder things have happened.

Read on…


For Recent Insights on the Kosaido Situation Published on Smartkarma…

DateInsight
21-Jan-2019Smallcap Kosaido (7868 JP) Tender Offer: Wrong Price But Whaddya Gonna Do?
7-Feb-2019Kosaido: Activism Drives Price 30+% Through Terms
19-Feb-2019Kosaido TOB (7868 JP) Situation Gets Weird – Activists and Independent Opposition to an MBO.
26-Feb-2019Kosaido (7868 JP) TOB Extended
19-Mar-2019Kosaido (7868 JP) – Reno Goes Bigger But TOB Price (This Time) Is Final So What Next?

And now there is more below.

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.



Brief Japan: Naspers: Softbank Buyback a Guide for Naspers? and more

By | Japan

In this briefing:

  1. Naspers: Softbank Buyback a Guide for Naspers?

1. Naspers: Softbank Buyback a Guide for Naspers?

Sk%20holdcos%20 %20softbank%20group%20%289984%20jp%29%20%282019 02 19%29

Recently, Softbank’s (9984 JP) shares jumped +18% after announcing a $5.5bn share buyback. Using Smartkarma’s holdco monitor, the discount to NAV had widened to around 55% prior to the announcement but is now sitting around 40-45%. There were a few key reasons for the buyback: (1) the Softbank Corp (9434 JP) (KK) IPO netted $20bn, giving the company the flexibility to do the buyback, and (2) Softbank is taking a more disciplined approach to further platform investments.

Both these arguments are also available to Naspers (NPN SJ) management and a move to buy back 5% of market cap is feasible and we believe would narrow the discount. The question is whether management are listening. They have been dismissive of buybacks in the past but this could change.

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.



Brief Japan: Naspers: Softbank Buyback a Guide for Naspers? and more

By | Japan

In this briefing:

  1. Naspers: Softbank Buyback a Guide for Naspers?
  2. 🇯🇵 JAPAN: Winter Results & Revisions Scores – Market Composite & Sector Review – Chilling

1. Naspers: Softbank Buyback a Guide for Naspers?

Sk%20holdcos%20 %20softbank%20group%20%289984%20jp%29%20%282019 02 19%29

Recently, Softbank’s (9984 JP) shares jumped +18% after announcing a $5.5bn share buyback. Using Smartkarma’s holdco monitor, the discount to NAV had widened to around 55% prior to the announcement but is now sitting around 40-45%. There were a few key reasons for the buyback: (1) the Softbank Corp (9434 JP) (KK) IPO netted $20bn, giving the company the flexibility to do the buyback, and (2) Softbank is taking a more disciplined approach to further platform investments.

Both these arguments are also available to Naspers (NPN SJ) management and a move to buy back 5% of market cap is feasible and we believe would narrow the discount. The question is whether management are listening. They have been dismissive of buybacks in the past but this could change.

2. 🇯🇵 JAPAN: Winter Results & Revisions Scores – Market Composite & Sector Review – Chilling

2019 02 20 11 18 58

Source: Japan Analytics

CHILLING – A winter chill has descended over the Japanese equity market. As we covered in our Insight on market aggregate earnings Japan: Winter Results & Revisions Flash the net income of corporate Japan peaked on 26th December, However, reported earnings are a lagging indicator, and in this instance, the ‘lag’ was almost one year, with the Total Market Capitalisation (excluding REITs) peaking on 23rd January 2018. Our preferred, and often leading, indicators are the All-Market Composite Results Score – a measure of the trend and momentum in quarterly corporate earnings the All-Market Composite Forecast/Revision Score – which measures the trend and rate of change in company initial forecasts and revisions. The Results Score peaked on 1st February 2018, seven trading days after the market peak and is now one year into an extended period of decline. The Forecast/Revision Score is slowing peaked out on 27th October 2017, three months ahead of the market and the Results Score – demonstrating the reliability of company forecasts, as opposed to ‘consensus’, as a leading indicator of future earnings. Revisions have continued to ‘lead’ on the way down and 0.55 points ‘ahead’.   

Source: Japan Analytics

TURNING NEGATIVE? – Subtracting the Forecast/Revision Score from the Results Score shows the extent of the lag in the latter. The relationship has been relatively stable of over one year; however, as we ‘roll’ into the next fiscal year’s forecasts in May, we can expect the difference to move closer to zero as both scores turn negative. As the cycle bottoms out, the revisions will recover ahead of results, and the difference will also become negative, setting the stage for the next upswing in later 2019 or early 2020.  

Source: Japan Analytics

On each of the three occasions since 2006 when the Results Score has fallen below ‘4’, it has subsequently fallen below zero. In 2012, the decline was muted by the advent of the Bank of Japan (BOJ)’s policy of weakening the currency. The current score of 2.14 suggests we are continuing on a path to zero and below.  Failing a currency move through ¥115 (see below), the Results Score should turn negative by the time the full-year results are announced next May. We also expect a high degree of caution in forecasting, especially on the Auto sector which is overshadowed by the prospect of US tariffs. The announcement of the closer of Honda Motor (7267 JP)‘s car plant in Swindon in the UK is not a good portent.  

Source: Japan Analytics

BEAR MARKET RALLY & THE YEN – Total Market Value has recovered by 13.8% since Christmas Day and is currently at the same level as when we published our Autumn review – SloMo Slowdown. With earnings and revisions heading lower, the implied expectation is for some or all of – a further central bank easing, a resolution of current trade tensions, and a weakening of the Yen. The last has been the ‘get-out-of-jail’ card for Japanese equities. Our chart compares the year-on-year percentage change in the US$/¥ exchange rate with a lag of six months to the Combined Results and Revision Score (with each sore being equally-weighted). The last eight turning points for the rate of change of the cross rate, have coincided with directional changes in earnings and revisions momentum. The recent weakness in the currency suggests a more stable market – at least until the late spring. 

RECOMMENDATION – Although current valuations are attractive, we believe the market is correctly anticipating further declines in earnings momentum over the next few quarters.  We would stay underweight Japanese equities by 20% (i.e. 5.5% v. 7%) with a bias towards domestic sectors, notably, Information Technology, Telecommunications, Media, Healthcare & Commercial Services. We would not hedge the currency.

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Brief Japan: CATL Could Be Tesla’s New Battery Supplier- Panasonic in Trouble? and more

By | Japan

In this briefing:

  1. CATL Could Be Tesla’s New Battery Supplier- Panasonic in Trouble?
  2. Mercari (4385) A Great Business but over Priced
  3. TRADE IDEA – Amorepacific Stub (002790 KS): Buyback Helped, Close the Trade
  4. Murakami-San Goes Hostile on Kosaido (7868 JP), Overbids Bain’s “Final” Offer
  5. Starboard Value. The Game Changing Activist Investor That Doesn’t Take No For An Answer.

1. CATL Could Be Tesla’s New Battery Supplier- Panasonic in Trouble?

The news released on the 11th of March, about Tesla Motors (TSLA US) choosing CATL (A) (300750 CH) as battery supplier has focused much attention on the two companies and other battery suppliers. CATL which grabbed Panasonic Corp (6752 JP)’s leading position in the industry last year now seems to be grabbing the latter’s key customer as well. The news circulating states that, CATL could power Tesla’s Model 3 cars which Tesla is planning to start assembling at Tesla’s new factory near Shanghai. Following the release of this supposed deal, the stocks of the two companies moved positively, with CATL surging by almost 6.7% while Tesla rose by almost 2.4% during the day.  However, both parties have not commented on this news yet or made any formal announcement regarding such a potential deal. In our Insight, Tesla Drifting Away Could Leave Panasonic Struggling to Gain Traction in China, we mentioned that Tesla was looking to locally source its batteries in China and that CATL could potentially be one such supplier. However, in January this year, it was reported that Tesla had signed a preliminary agreement with China’s Tianjin Lishen to supply batteries for its new Shanghai car factory, making the current news look less believable. Although it seems like the ongoing news about a Tesla-CATL pair up lacks integrity, with CATL sort of denying its intend to work with Tesla (according to an updated news release), the news does look interesting and its effect upon the related companies seems noteworthy.

2. Mercari (4385) A Great Business but over Priced

4385

Established in 2013, this has been a huge success story in Japan. The company operates the largest C to C mobile app that allows customers to trade in second hand goods with each other. Growth has been phenomenal. In the year to 6/15, Mercari had revenue of Y4.2bn, three years later (6/18) this had risen to Y35.7bn. This growth carries on, first half revenue this year to December 2018 rose 45% to Y23.7bn. It has begun an operation in the US, currently loss making, and has just introduced “Merpay”, a prepaid card incorporated into one’s mobile phone along the lines of Suica that allows users to purchase goods and pay bills. Funds can be deposited following a sale on Mercari’s site or transferred from a bank. Revenue will probably continue to grow at a rapid pace and whilst there are some that will jump on board, it is impossible to come up with any sensible valuation that can really justify a purchase here. There is no p.e.r. and the company will be loss making for the next couple of years. Its market cap of Y440bn means that it is trading on perhaps 6x 6/20 sales. On top of this, there are risks with regards to the viability of its US operation. Management appear to be aware to this and have set certain time limits for a turn around. There are many BUYS out on this name, thematically it has much going for it, but the valuation leaves us cold.

3. TRADE IDEA – Amorepacific Stub (002790 KS): Buyback Helped, Close the Trade

In my original insight on January 15, 2019 TRADE IDEA: Amorepacific (002790 KS) Stub: A Beautiful Opportunity, I proposed setting up a stub trade to profit from the mis-priced stub business of Amorepacific that was trading at its widest discount to NAV in at least three years. During the 65 calendar days that followed, Amorepacific Group (002790 KS) has gained 7.3% and the outperformed Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS) by 2.84%. The trade has reverted to average levels in a period of about two months and in this insight I will outline why I think the trade is over.

In this insight I will discuss:

  • Performance of ALL my recommended stub trades
  • a post-trade analysis on the Amorepacific stub

4. Murakami-San Goes Hostile on Kosaido (7868 JP), Overbids Bain’s “Final” Offer

I should have seen this coming. The asset is juicy enough, and they have a large enough stake, and the company is small enough, that this is an easy trade to do if you can get the funding. It makes eminent sense to be able to put the money down and go for it. 

I have covered this minor disaster of an MBO (Management BuyOut) of Kosaido Co Ltd (7868 JP) since it was launched, with the original question of what one could do (other than refuse). Famed/notorious Japanese activist Yoshiaki Murakami and his associated companies started buying in and then the stock quickly cleared the Bain Capital Japan vehicle’s bid price. The deal was extended, then the Bain bid was raised to ¥700/share last week with the minimum threshold set at 50.01% not 66.67% but still the shares had not traded that low, and did not following the news. But Bain played chicken with Murakami and the market in its amended filing, including the words 「公開買付者は、本開買付条件の変更後の本公開買付価格を最終的なものとし、今後、本公開買付価格を一切変更しないことの決定をしております。」which roughly translates to “The Offeror, having changed the terms, has made This Tender Offer Price final, and from this point onward, has decided to absolutely not raise the Tender Offer Price.”

So now Murakami-san has launched a Tender Offer of his own. Murakami-affiliated entities Minami Aoyama Fudosan KK and Reno KK have launched a Tender Offer at ¥750/share to buy a minimum of 9,100,900 shares and a maximum of all remaining shares. The entities currently own 3,355,900 shares (13.47%) between them – up from 11.71% reported up through yesterday [as noted in yesterday’s insight, it looked likely from the volume and trading patterns prior to yesterday’s Large Shareholder Report that they had continued buying]. 

Buying a minimum of 9,100,900 shares at ¥750/share should be easier for Murakami-san’s bidding entity than buying a minimum of 12,456,800 shares (Bain Capital’s minimum threshold) at ¥700/share, but the Murakami TOB Tender Agent is Mita Securities, which is a lesser-known agent and it is possible that the main agent for the Bain tender (SMBC Securities) could make life difficult for its account holders.

The likelihood that Murakami-san doesn’t have his bid funded or won’t follow through is, in my eyes, effectively zero. Tender Offer announcements are vetted by both the Kanto Local Finance Bureau and the Stock Exchange. You know this has been in the works for a couple of weeks simply because of that aspect. But one of the two documents released today includes an explanation of the process Murakami-san’s companies have gone through to arrive at this bid, and that tells you it may have gone on longer.

So what next? The easy answer is there is now a put at ¥750/share. Unless there is not. Weirder things have happened.

Read on…


For Recent Insights on the Kosaido Situation Published on Smartkarma…

DateInsight
21-Jan-2019Smallcap Kosaido (7868 JP) Tender Offer: Wrong Price But Whaddya Gonna Do?
7-Feb-2019Kosaido: Activism Drives Price 30+% Through Terms
19-Feb-2019Kosaido TOB (7868 JP) Situation Gets Weird – Activists and Independent Opposition to an MBO.
26-Feb-2019Kosaido (7868 JP) TOB Extended
19-Mar-2019Kosaido (7868 JP) – Reno Goes Bigger But TOB Price (This Time) Is Final So What Next?

And now there is more below.

5. Starboard Value. The Game Changing Activist Investor That Doesn’t Take No For An Answer.

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New York based activist investor firm Starboard Value has been intricately involved in shaping the  fortunes and futures of two high profile technology companies in recent years, Marvell and Mellanox. The firm first to prominence some five years ago when they were the first among their peers to accomplish the extraordinary feat of replacing the CEO and entire board of Fortune 500 restaurant group Darden, while holding less than 10% of the company’s shares.

In the wake of their Darden coup, the firm has gone from strength to strength. To date the firm has taken positions in a total of 105 publicly listed companies, replacing or adding some 211 directors on over 60 corporate boards.

On March 7’th 2019, Starboard Value announced the acquisition of a 4% stake in US comms infrastructure firm Zayo. In the intervening period, Zayo’s share price has risen by 14% as canny investors scramble to partake in the goodness that will surely be extracted by the activist firm that simply doesn’t take no for an answer. 

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