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ECM

Brief IPOs & Placements: Homeplus REIT IPO: A Key Landmark Deal in the History of the Korean REIT Market and more

By | ECM

In this briefing:

  1. Homeplus REIT IPO: A Key Landmark Deal in the History of the Korean REIT Market
  2. ECM Weekly (9 March 2019) – Lyft, Shenwan Hongyuan, RHB Bank, Sea Ltd, Xinyi Solar, China Gas

1. Homeplus REIT IPO: A Key Landmark Deal in the History of the Korean REIT Market

Koreanreit

The Homeplus REIT IPO is surely a key landmark deal in the 20 year history of the Korean REIT market. We have a positive view on the Homeplus REIT IPO and believe it has a good chance of generating 6-9% return per year (including dividends and capital appreciation) in the next three years. The Homeplus REIT is geared towards the investors who are happy with 6-9% annual returns with relatively low downside risk. For the investors that are seeking 10%+ annual returns, this deal is probably not suitable for them. 

The following are the five major factors why we believe the Homeplus REIT market will be a success: 

  • Stable dividend yield of 6-7%.
  • Opportunity to get included in a global REIT index (such as EPRA Developed Asia Index).
  • Supermarkets related REITs are viewed safer than residential and commercial office building related REITs globally.
  • Global investors have wanted to invest in a big, liquid, safe retail REIT with stable dividends in Korea for a long time. The Homeplus REIT possesses many of these characteristics. 

2. ECM Weekly (9 March 2019) – Lyft, Shenwan Hongyuan, RHB Bank, Sea Ltd, Xinyi Solar, China Gas

Total deals since inception accuracy rate since inception  chartbuilder%20%289%29

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by Smartkarma Insight Providers recently, along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

It has been a fairly hectic week. We have been busy writing on upcoming IPOs, post-IPO events, and, to top it all off, there were four placements (Sea Ltd, RHB Bank, Xinyi Solar, and China Gas) this week.

Hong Kong’s ECM activity seems to be picking up momentum. Starting off with approvals, Viva Biotech (1577881D HK) and Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK) filed their respective PHIP on HKEX. Ke Yan, CFA, FRM had previously written on Viva Biotech here while we are currently working on Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK) and also heard that Dongzheng Auto Finance had already kicked off pre-marketing on Monday.

For upcoming IPOs with completed bookbuilds, Yincheng International Holding (1902 HK) traded flat on debut (expected for a small and leveraged developer) while Zhejiang New Century Hotel Management Group (1158 HK), which had Ctrip and GreenTree as cornerstone investors, will list next Monday. 

As for early coverage on IPOs, Sumeet Singh had already given a broad overview of ESR Cayman (ESR HK)‘s business. He will be following up with more detailed analyses in the coming weeks. 

In the US, Futu Holdings Ltd (FHL US) debuted well on Friday, trading up to as high as US$17 per share before closing just above US$15 but still well above the IPO price. We had been slightly more conservative because it is not exactly a very exciting company doing something groundbreaking but the management background in tech appears strong and there are no corporate governance issues.Sumeet Singh will update on trading liquidity and post-IPO analysis next week.

For pipeline IPOs, we heard that Ehang is planning its US IPO and it is looking to raise about US$500m. This is the Chinese drone manufacturer which made waves just over a year ago with a video of a team testing its autonomous aerial vehicle shown in the video below. Suffice to say, if and when the IPO launches, it will be interesting.

Ruhnn had also filed for IPO this week and we heard that pre-marketing will start next week while bookbuild will likely launch end of the month. This is an Alibaba-backed e-commerce influencer platform and we will be analyzing the company soon.

We had also been exploring potential trade ideas surrounding lock-up expiry such as Nio (蔚来) Lock-Up Expiry – Scattered Pre-IPO Investors to Be the Sellers  and Meituan Dianping (美团点评): Thoughts Before Lock-Up Expiry. NIO’s lock-up expiry had been an unfortunate case of poor outlook guidance in Q4 coinciding with lock-up expiry coming on the week after (11th March).

Accuracy Rate:

Our overall accuracy rate is 72.1% for IPOs and 63.6% for Placements 

(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)

New IPO filings

  • Ruhnn (the U.S, ~US$200m)
  • Sun Car Insurance (Hong Kong, >US$100m)
  • Sichuan Languang Justbon Services (Hong Kong, ~US$100m)
  • Mabpharm (Hong Kong, re-filed)
  • Intellicentrics (Hong Kong, CLSA sole-sponsor, likely to be <US$100m)

Below is a snippet of our IPO tool showing upcoming events for the next week. The IPO tool is designed to provide readers with timely information on all IPO related events (Book open/closing, listing, initiation, lock-up expiry, etc) for all the deals that we have worked on. You can access the tool here or through the tools menu.

Source: Aequitas Research, Smartkarma

News on Upcoming IPOs

Smartkarma Community’s this week Analysis on Upcoming IPO

NameInsight
Hong Kong
AB InbevAb InBev Asia Pre-IPO – A Brief History of the Asia Pacific Operations – Eeking Out Growth in China
AscentageAscentage Pharma (亚盛医药) IPO: Too Early for an IPO
Ant FinancialAnt Financial IPO Early Thought: Understand Fintech Empire, Growth & Risk Factors
BitmainBitmain IPO Preview: The Last Hurrah Before Reality Bites
BitmainBitmain IPO Preview (Part 2) – King of Cryptocurrency Mining Rigs but Its Moat Is Shrinking
BitmainBitmain: A Counter Thesis
BitmainBitmain (比特大陆) IPO: Running Out of Steam on Mining Rigs (Part 1)
BitmainBitmain (比特大陆) IPO: Value At Risk of Founder’s Belief (Part 2)
BitmainBitmain (比特大陆) IPO: Take-Aways from Founder’s Recent Speech at Tsinghua University (Part 3)
BitmainBitmain (比特大陆) IPO: Intense Competition in the 7nm Mining ASIC Market (Part 4)
ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) IPO: How Jinri Toutiao Paves The Way for a Bigger Empire (Part 1)

ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) IPO: Tiktok the No.1 Short Video App for a Good Reason (Part 2)

China East EduChina East Education (中国东方教育) Pre-IPO – The Company Known for Its Culinary School
China TobacChina Tobacco International (IPO): The Monopolist Will Not Recover
China TobacChina Tobacco International IPO: Heavy Regulation, Declining Margins – A Bit Late to IPO Party
China TobacChina Tobacco Intl (HK) IPO: Proxy For the Chinese Cigarette Consumption
ESRESR Cayman Pre-IPO – A Giant in the Making
Frontage

Frontage Holding (方达控股) IPO: More Disclosure Needed to Understand Moat and Growth Prospect

Hujiang Edu

Hujiang Education (沪江教育) Pre-IPO – Spending More than It Earns

MicuRxMicuRx Pharma (盟科医药) IPO: Betting on Single Drug in the Not so Attractive Antibiotic Segment
SH Henlius

Shanghai Henlius (复宏汉霖) IPO: Not an Impressive Biosimilar Portfolio 

SH Henlius

HLX02: Innovation Could Overtake 

TubatuTubatu Group Pre-IPO – Performing Better than Qeeka but Growing Much Slower, US$1bn a Stretch
TubatuTubatu Group Pre-IPO – Online -> Online + Offline -> Online -> ?
ShenwanShenwan Hongyuan (申万宏源) A+H: A Commoditized Broker Business
Viva BioViva Biotech (维亚生物) IPO: When CRO Becomes Early Stage Biotech Investor
South Korea
Ecopro BMEcopro BM IPO Preview: The World’s #2 Player in the NCA High Nickel-Based Cathode Materials
Ecopro BMEcopro BM IPO: Valuation Analysis
KMH ShillaKMH Shilla Leisure IPO Preview (Part 1) – Highly Profitable Operator of Public Golf Courses in Korea
KMH ShillaKMH Shilla Leisure IPO Preview (Part 2) – Valuation Analysis
HomeplusHomeplus REIT IPO – The Largest Ever REIT IPO in Korea
Hyundai AutoHyundai Autoever IPO Preview
Hyundai AutHyundai Autoever IPO Pricing: Likely to Be a Dull Event Given No Growth Story & Glovis Merger
Plakor

Plakor IPO Preview (Part 1)

ZinusZinus IPO Preview (Part 1) – An Amazing Comeback Story (#1 Mattress Brand on Amazon)
India
Anmol IndAnmol Industries Pre-IPO Quick Take – No Growth, Generous Payments to Founders
Bharat Hotels

Bharat Hotels Pre-IPO – Catching up with Peers 

CMS InfoCMS Info Systems Pre-IPO Review – When a PE Sells to Another PE… Only One Gets the Timing Right
Crystal CropCrystal Crop Protection Pre-IPO – DRHP Raises More Questions than in Answers
Embassy REITEmbassy Office Parks REIT – Good Assets but Projections Might Be a Tad Too Bullish
Embassy REITEmbassy Office Parks REIT – Comparison with AIT and a Look at the Required Yield
Flemingo Flemingo Travel Retail Pre-IPO – Its a Different Business in Every Country
NSENSE IPO Preview- Not Only Fast..its Risky and Expensive
NSENational Stock Exchange Pre-IPO Review – Bigger, Better, Stronger but a Little Too Fast for Some
Mazagon DockMazagon Dock IPO Preview: A Monopoly Submarine Yard in India with Captive Navy Spending
Mrs. BectorMrs. Bectors Food Specialities Pre-IPO Quick Take – Sales for Its Main Segment Have Been Sta

Lodha

Lodha Developers Pre-IPO – Second Time Lucky but Not Really that Much Affordable
LodhaLodha Developers IPO: Large Presence in Affordable Segment Saves Lodha the Blushes in a Sluggish Mkt
IndiaMartIndiaMART Pre-IPO – Getting and Retaining Subscribers Seems to Be Difficult
PolycabPolycab India Pre-IPO – Market Leader with Steady Growth but with a Few Unanswered Question
PolycabPolycab IPO: Largest Cables Player, Asset-Heavy Low ROE = Vulnerable to Govt Capex Slowdown
The U.S.
TigerUp Fintech (Tiger Brokers) Pre-IPO Quick Note – Much Too Reliant on IBKR
Malaysia
QSRQSR Brands Pre-IPO – As Healthy as Fast Food

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.



Brief IPOs & Placements: Homeplus REIT IPO: A Key Landmark Deal in the History of the Korean REIT Market and more

By | ECM

In this briefing:

  1. Homeplus REIT IPO: A Key Landmark Deal in the History of the Korean REIT Market
  2. ECM Weekly (9 March 2019) – Lyft, Shenwan Hongyuan, RHB Bank, Sea Ltd, Xinyi Solar, China Gas
  3. ESR Cayman Pre-IPO – A Giant in the Making

1. Homeplus REIT IPO: A Key Landmark Deal in the History of the Korean REIT Market

Koreanreit

The Homeplus REIT IPO is surely a key landmark deal in the 20 year history of the Korean REIT market. We have a positive view on the Homeplus REIT IPO and believe it has a good chance of generating 6-9% return per year (including dividends and capital appreciation) in the next three years. The Homeplus REIT is geared towards the investors who are happy with 6-9% annual returns with relatively low downside risk. For the investors that are seeking 10%+ annual returns, this deal is probably not suitable for them. 

The following are the five major factors why we believe the Homeplus REIT market will be a success: 

  • Stable dividend yield of 6-7%.
  • Opportunity to get included in a global REIT index (such as EPRA Developed Asia Index).
  • Supermarkets related REITs are viewed safer than residential and commercial office building related REITs globally.
  • Global investors have wanted to invest in a big, liquid, safe retail REIT with stable dividends in Korea for a long time. The Homeplus REIT possesses many of these characteristics. 

2. ECM Weekly (9 March 2019) – Lyft, Shenwan Hongyuan, RHB Bank, Sea Ltd, Xinyi Solar, China Gas

Total deals since inception accuracy rate since inception  chartbuilder%20%289%29

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by Smartkarma Insight Providers recently, along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

It has been a fairly hectic week. We have been busy writing on upcoming IPOs, post-IPO events, and, to top it all off, there were four placements (Sea Ltd, RHB Bank, Xinyi Solar, and China Gas) this week.

Hong Kong’s ECM activity seems to be picking up momentum. Starting off with approvals, Viva Biotech (1577881D HK) and Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK) filed their respective PHIP on HKEX. Ke Yan, CFA, FRM had previously written on Viva Biotech here while we are currently working on Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK) and also heard that Dongzheng Auto Finance had already kicked off pre-marketing on Monday.

For upcoming IPOs with completed bookbuilds, Yincheng International Holding (1902 HK) traded flat on debut (expected for a small and leveraged developer) while Zhejiang New Century Hotel Management Group (1158 HK), which had Ctrip and GreenTree as cornerstone investors, will list next Monday. 

As for early coverage on IPOs, Sumeet Singh had already given a broad overview of ESR Cayman (ESR HK)‘s business. He will be following up with more detailed analyses in the coming weeks. 

In the US, Futu Holdings Ltd (FHL US) debuted well on Friday, trading up to as high as US$17 per share before closing just above US$15 but still well above the IPO price. We had been slightly more conservative because it is not exactly a very exciting company doing something groundbreaking but the management background in tech appears strong and there are no corporate governance issues.Sumeet Singh will update on trading liquidity and post-IPO analysis next week.

For pipeline IPOs, we heard that Ehang is planning its US IPO and it is looking to raise about US$500m. This is the Chinese drone manufacturer which made waves just over a year ago with a video of a team testing its autonomous aerial vehicle shown in the video below. Suffice to say, if and when the IPO launches, it will be interesting.

Ruhnn had also filed for IPO this week and we heard that pre-marketing will start next week while bookbuild will likely launch end of the month. This is an Alibaba-backed e-commerce influencer platform and we will be analyzing the company soon.

We had also been exploring potential trade ideas surrounding lock-up expiry such as Nio (蔚来) Lock-Up Expiry – Scattered Pre-IPO Investors to Be the Sellers  and Meituan Dianping (美团点评): Thoughts Before Lock-Up Expiry. NIO’s lock-up expiry had been an unfortunate case of poor outlook guidance in Q4 coinciding with lock-up expiry coming on the week after (11th March).

Accuracy Rate:

Our overall accuracy rate is 72.1% for IPOs and 63.6% for Placements 

(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)

New IPO filings

  • Ruhnn (the U.S, ~US$200m)
  • Sun Car Insurance (Hong Kong, >US$100m)
  • Sichuan Languang Justbon Services (Hong Kong, ~US$100m)
  • Mabpharm (Hong Kong, re-filed)
  • Intellicentrics (Hong Kong, CLSA sole-sponsor, likely to be <US$100m)

Below is a snippet of our IPO tool showing upcoming events for the next week. The IPO tool is designed to provide readers with timely information on all IPO related events (Book open/closing, listing, initiation, lock-up expiry, etc) for all the deals that we have worked on. You can access the tool here or through the tools menu.

Source: Aequitas Research, Smartkarma

News on Upcoming IPOs

Smartkarma Community’s this week Analysis on Upcoming IPO

NameInsight
Hong Kong
AB InbevAb InBev Asia Pre-IPO – A Brief History of the Asia Pacific Operations – Eeking Out Growth in China
AscentageAscentage Pharma (亚盛医药) IPO: Too Early for an IPO
Ant FinancialAnt Financial IPO Early Thought: Understand Fintech Empire, Growth & Risk Factors
BitmainBitmain IPO Preview: The Last Hurrah Before Reality Bites
BitmainBitmain IPO Preview (Part 2) – King of Cryptocurrency Mining Rigs but Its Moat Is Shrinking
BitmainBitmain: A Counter Thesis
BitmainBitmain (比特大陆) IPO: Running Out of Steam on Mining Rigs (Part 1)
BitmainBitmain (比特大陆) IPO: Value At Risk of Founder’s Belief (Part 2)
BitmainBitmain (比特大陆) IPO: Take-Aways from Founder’s Recent Speech at Tsinghua University (Part 3)
BitmainBitmain (比特大陆) IPO: Intense Competition in the 7nm Mining ASIC Market (Part 4)
ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) IPO: How Jinri Toutiao Paves The Way for a Bigger Empire (Part 1)

ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) IPO: Tiktok the No.1 Short Video App for a Good Reason (Part 2)

China East EduChina East Education (中国东方教育) Pre-IPO – The Company Known for Its Culinary School
China TobacChina Tobacco International (IPO): The Monopolist Will Not Recover
China TobacChina Tobacco International IPO: Heavy Regulation, Declining Margins – A Bit Late to IPO Party
China TobacChina Tobacco Intl (HK) IPO: Proxy For the Chinese Cigarette Consumption
ESRESR Cayman Pre-IPO – A Giant in the Making
Frontage

Frontage Holding (方达控股) IPO: More Disclosure Needed to Understand Moat and Growth Prospect

Hujiang Edu

Hujiang Education (沪江教育) Pre-IPO – Spending More than It Earns

MicuRxMicuRx Pharma (盟科医药) IPO: Betting on Single Drug in the Not so Attractive Antibiotic Segment
SH Henlius

Shanghai Henlius (复宏汉霖) IPO: Not an Impressive Biosimilar Portfolio 

SH Henlius

HLX02: Innovation Could Overtake 

TubatuTubatu Group Pre-IPO – Performing Better than Qeeka but Growing Much Slower, US$1bn a Stretch
TubatuTubatu Group Pre-IPO – Online -> Online + Offline -> Online -> ?
ShenwanShenwan Hongyuan (申万宏源) A+H: A Commoditized Broker Business
Viva BioViva Biotech (维亚生物) IPO: When CRO Becomes Early Stage Biotech Investor
South Korea
Ecopro BMEcopro BM IPO Preview: The World’s #2 Player in the NCA High Nickel-Based Cathode Materials
Ecopro BMEcopro BM IPO: Valuation Analysis
KMH ShillaKMH Shilla Leisure IPO Preview (Part 1) – Highly Profitable Operator of Public Golf Courses in Korea
KMH ShillaKMH Shilla Leisure IPO Preview (Part 2) – Valuation Analysis
HomeplusHomeplus REIT IPO – The Largest Ever REIT IPO in Korea
Hyundai AutoHyundai Autoever IPO Preview
Hyundai AutHyundai Autoever IPO Pricing: Likely to Be a Dull Event Given No Growth Story & Glovis Merger
Plakor

Plakor IPO Preview (Part 1)

ZinusZinus IPO Preview (Part 1) – An Amazing Comeback Story (#1 Mattress Brand on Amazon)
India
Anmol IndAnmol Industries Pre-IPO Quick Take – No Growth, Generous Payments to Founders
Bharat Hotels

Bharat Hotels Pre-IPO – Catching up with Peers 

CMS InfoCMS Info Systems Pre-IPO Review – When a PE Sells to Another PE… Only One Gets the Timing Right
Crystal CropCrystal Crop Protection Pre-IPO – DRHP Raises More Questions than in Answers
Embassy REITEmbassy Office Parks REIT – Good Assets but Projections Might Be a Tad Too Bullish
Embassy REITEmbassy Office Parks REIT – Comparison with AIT and a Look at the Required Yield
Flemingo Flemingo Travel Retail Pre-IPO – Its a Different Business in Every Country
NSENSE IPO Preview- Not Only Fast..its Risky and Expensive
NSENational Stock Exchange Pre-IPO Review – Bigger, Better, Stronger but a Little Too Fast for Some
Mazagon DockMazagon Dock IPO Preview: A Monopoly Submarine Yard in India with Captive Navy Spending
Mrs. BectorMrs. Bectors Food Specialities Pre-IPO Quick Take – Sales for Its Main Segment Have Been Sta

Lodha

Lodha Developers Pre-IPO – Second Time Lucky but Not Really that Much Affordable
LodhaLodha Developers IPO: Large Presence in Affordable Segment Saves Lodha the Blushes in a Sluggish Mkt
IndiaMartIndiaMART Pre-IPO – Getting and Retaining Subscribers Seems to Be Difficult
PolycabPolycab India Pre-IPO – Market Leader with Steady Growth but with a Few Unanswered Question
PolycabPolycab IPO: Largest Cables Player, Asset-Heavy Low ROE = Vulnerable to Govt Capex Slowdown
The U.S.
TigerUp Fintech (Tiger Brokers) Pre-IPO Quick Note – Much Too Reliant on IBKR
Malaysia
QSRQSR Brands Pre-IPO – As Healthy as Fast Food

3. ESR Cayman Pre-IPO – A Giant in the Making

Revenue%20breakdown

ESR Cayman (ESR HK) aims to raise up to US$1.5bn in its planned Hong Kong listing, as per media reports. The company is backed by Warburg Pincus and counts APG, the Netherlands’ largest pension provider, as one of its main investors.

ESR operates an end-to-end model starting from development of the asset to divesting it to one of its private funds and/or REITs. It operates in China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Singapore and India. AUM has grown rapidly over the past few years as the company has undertaken a number of acquisitions in the recent past. 

In this insight, I’ll touch upon the company’s business model and provide an overview of its operations. 

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.



Brief IPOs & Placements: Homeplus REIT IPO: A Key Landmark Deal in the History of the Korean REIT Market and more

By | ECM

In this briefing:

  1. Homeplus REIT IPO: A Key Landmark Deal in the History of the Korean REIT Market
  2. ECM Weekly (9 March 2019) – Lyft, Shenwan Hongyuan, RHB Bank, Sea Ltd, Xinyi Solar, China Gas
  3. ESR Cayman Pre-IPO – A Giant in the Making
  4. China Gas Placement – Larger Deals Traded Flat but Good Track Record Should Help

1. Homeplus REIT IPO: A Key Landmark Deal in the History of the Korean REIT Market

Koreanreit

The Homeplus REIT IPO is surely a key landmark deal in the 20 year history of the Korean REIT market. We have a positive view on the Homeplus REIT IPO and believe it has a good chance of generating 6-9% return per year (including dividends and capital appreciation) in the next three years. The Homeplus REIT is geared towards the investors who are happy with 6-9% annual returns with relatively low downside risk. For the investors that are seeking 10%+ annual returns, this deal is probably not suitable for them. 

The following are the five major factors why we believe the Homeplus REIT market will be a success: 

  • Stable dividend yield of 6-7%.
  • Opportunity to get included in a global REIT index (such as EPRA Developed Asia Index).
  • Supermarkets related REITs are viewed safer than residential and commercial office building related REITs globally.
  • Global investors have wanted to invest in a big, liquid, safe retail REIT with stable dividends in Korea for a long time. The Homeplus REIT possesses many of these characteristics. 

2. ECM Weekly (9 March 2019) – Lyft, Shenwan Hongyuan, RHB Bank, Sea Ltd, Xinyi Solar, China Gas

Total deals since inception accuracy rate since inception  chartbuilder%20%289%29

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by Smartkarma Insight Providers recently, along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

It has been a fairly hectic week. We have been busy writing on upcoming IPOs, post-IPO events, and, to top it all off, there were four placements (Sea Ltd, RHB Bank, Xinyi Solar, and China Gas) this week.

Hong Kong’s ECM activity seems to be picking up momentum. Starting off with approvals, Viva Biotech (1577881D HK) and Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK) filed their respective PHIP on HKEX. Ke Yan, CFA, FRM had previously written on Viva Biotech here while we are currently working on Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK) and also heard that Dongzheng Auto Finance had already kicked off pre-marketing on Monday.

For upcoming IPOs with completed bookbuilds, Yincheng International Holding (1902 HK) traded flat on debut (expected for a small and leveraged developer) while Zhejiang New Century Hotel Management Group (1158 HK), which had Ctrip and GreenTree as cornerstone investors, will list next Monday. 

As for early coverage on IPOs, Sumeet Singh had already given a broad overview of ESR Cayman (ESR HK)‘s business. He will be following up with more detailed analyses in the coming weeks. 

In the US, Futu Holdings Ltd (FHL US) debuted well on Friday, trading up to as high as US$17 per share before closing just above US$15 but still well above the IPO price. We had been slightly more conservative because it is not exactly a very exciting company doing something groundbreaking but the management background in tech appears strong and there are no corporate governance issues.Sumeet Singh will update on trading liquidity and post-IPO analysis next week.

For pipeline IPOs, we heard that Ehang is planning its US IPO and it is looking to raise about US$500m. This is the Chinese drone manufacturer which made waves just over a year ago with a video of a team testing its autonomous aerial vehicle shown in the video below. Suffice to say, if and when the IPO launches, it will be interesting.

Ruhnn had also filed for IPO this week and we heard that pre-marketing will start next week while bookbuild will likely launch end of the month. This is an Alibaba-backed e-commerce influencer platform and we will be analyzing the company soon.

We had also been exploring potential trade ideas surrounding lock-up expiry such as Nio (蔚来) Lock-Up Expiry – Scattered Pre-IPO Investors to Be the Sellers  and Meituan Dianping (美团点评): Thoughts Before Lock-Up Expiry. NIO’s lock-up expiry had been an unfortunate case of poor outlook guidance in Q4 coinciding with lock-up expiry coming on the week after (11th March).

Accuracy Rate:

Our overall accuracy rate is 72.1% for IPOs and 63.6% for Placements 

(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)

New IPO filings

  • Ruhnn (the U.S, ~US$200m)
  • Sun Car Insurance (Hong Kong, >US$100m)
  • Sichuan Languang Justbon Services (Hong Kong, ~US$100m)
  • Mabpharm (Hong Kong, re-filed)
  • Intellicentrics (Hong Kong, CLSA sole-sponsor, likely to be <US$100m)

Below is a snippet of our IPO tool showing upcoming events for the next week. The IPO tool is designed to provide readers with timely information on all IPO related events (Book open/closing, listing, initiation, lock-up expiry, etc) for all the deals that we have worked on. You can access the tool here or through the tools menu.

Source: Aequitas Research, Smartkarma

News on Upcoming IPOs

Smartkarma Community’s this week Analysis on Upcoming IPO

NameInsight
Hong Kong
AB InbevAb InBev Asia Pre-IPO – A Brief History of the Asia Pacific Operations – Eeking Out Growth in China
AscentageAscentage Pharma (亚盛医药) IPO: Too Early for an IPO
Ant FinancialAnt Financial IPO Early Thought: Understand Fintech Empire, Growth & Risk Factors
BitmainBitmain IPO Preview: The Last Hurrah Before Reality Bites
BitmainBitmain IPO Preview (Part 2) – King of Cryptocurrency Mining Rigs but Its Moat Is Shrinking
BitmainBitmain: A Counter Thesis
BitmainBitmain (比特大陆) IPO: Running Out of Steam on Mining Rigs (Part 1)
BitmainBitmain (比特大陆) IPO: Value At Risk of Founder’s Belief (Part 2)
BitmainBitmain (比特大陆) IPO: Take-Aways from Founder’s Recent Speech at Tsinghua University (Part 3)
BitmainBitmain (比特大陆) IPO: Intense Competition in the 7nm Mining ASIC Market (Part 4)
ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) IPO: How Jinri Toutiao Paves The Way for a Bigger Empire (Part 1)

ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) IPO: Tiktok the No.1 Short Video App for a Good Reason (Part 2)

China East EduChina East Education (中国东方教育) Pre-IPO – The Company Known for Its Culinary School
China TobacChina Tobacco International (IPO): The Monopolist Will Not Recover
China TobacChina Tobacco International IPO: Heavy Regulation, Declining Margins – A Bit Late to IPO Party
China TobacChina Tobacco Intl (HK) IPO: Proxy For the Chinese Cigarette Consumption
ESRESR Cayman Pre-IPO – A Giant in the Making
Frontage

Frontage Holding (方达控股) IPO: More Disclosure Needed to Understand Moat and Growth Prospect

Hujiang Edu

Hujiang Education (沪江教育) Pre-IPO – Spending More than It Earns

MicuRxMicuRx Pharma (盟科医药) IPO: Betting on Single Drug in the Not so Attractive Antibiotic Segment
SH Henlius

Shanghai Henlius (复宏汉霖) IPO: Not an Impressive Biosimilar Portfolio 

SH Henlius

HLX02: Innovation Could Overtake 

TubatuTubatu Group Pre-IPO – Performing Better than Qeeka but Growing Much Slower, US$1bn a Stretch
TubatuTubatu Group Pre-IPO – Online -> Online + Offline -> Online -> ?
ShenwanShenwan Hongyuan (申万宏源) A+H: A Commoditized Broker Business
Viva BioViva Biotech (维亚生物) IPO: When CRO Becomes Early Stage Biotech Investor
South Korea
Ecopro BMEcopro BM IPO Preview: The World’s #2 Player in the NCA High Nickel-Based Cathode Materials
Ecopro BMEcopro BM IPO: Valuation Analysis
KMH ShillaKMH Shilla Leisure IPO Preview (Part 1) – Highly Profitable Operator of Public Golf Courses in Korea
KMH ShillaKMH Shilla Leisure IPO Preview (Part 2) – Valuation Analysis
HomeplusHomeplus REIT IPO – The Largest Ever REIT IPO in Korea
Hyundai AutoHyundai Autoever IPO Preview
Hyundai AutHyundai Autoever IPO Pricing: Likely to Be a Dull Event Given No Growth Story & Glovis Merger
Plakor

Plakor IPO Preview (Part 1)

ZinusZinus IPO Preview (Part 1) – An Amazing Comeback Story (#1 Mattress Brand on Amazon)
India
Anmol IndAnmol Industries Pre-IPO Quick Take – No Growth, Generous Payments to Founders
Bharat Hotels

Bharat Hotels Pre-IPO – Catching up with Peers 

CMS InfoCMS Info Systems Pre-IPO Review – When a PE Sells to Another PE… Only One Gets the Timing Right
Crystal CropCrystal Crop Protection Pre-IPO – DRHP Raises More Questions than in Answers
Embassy REITEmbassy Office Parks REIT – Good Assets but Projections Might Be a Tad Too Bullish
Embassy REITEmbassy Office Parks REIT – Comparison with AIT and a Look at the Required Yield
Flemingo Flemingo Travel Retail Pre-IPO – Its a Different Business in Every Country
NSENSE IPO Preview- Not Only Fast..its Risky and Expensive
NSENational Stock Exchange Pre-IPO Review – Bigger, Better, Stronger but a Little Too Fast for Some
Mazagon DockMazagon Dock IPO Preview: A Monopoly Submarine Yard in India with Captive Navy Spending
Mrs. BectorMrs. Bectors Food Specialities Pre-IPO Quick Take – Sales for Its Main Segment Have Been Sta

Lodha

Lodha Developers Pre-IPO – Second Time Lucky but Not Really that Much Affordable
LodhaLodha Developers IPO: Large Presence in Affordable Segment Saves Lodha the Blushes in a Sluggish Mkt
IndiaMartIndiaMART Pre-IPO – Getting and Retaining Subscribers Seems to Be Difficult
PolycabPolycab India Pre-IPO – Market Leader with Steady Growth but with a Few Unanswered Question
PolycabPolycab IPO: Largest Cables Player, Asset-Heavy Low ROE = Vulnerable to Govt Capex Slowdown
The U.S.
TigerUp Fintech (Tiger Brokers) Pre-IPO Quick Note – Much Too Reliant on IBKR
Malaysia
QSRQSR Brands Pre-IPO – As Healthy as Fast Food

3. ESR Cayman Pre-IPO – A Giant in the Making

Revenue%20breakdown

ESR Cayman (ESR HK) aims to raise up to US$1.5bn in its planned Hong Kong listing, as per media reports. The company is backed by Warburg Pincus and counts APG, the Netherlands’ largest pension provider, as one of its main investors.

ESR operates an end-to-end model starting from development of the asset to divesting it to one of its private funds and/or REITs. It operates in China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Singapore and India. AUM has grown rapidly over the past few years as the company has undertaken a number of acquisitions in the recent past. 

In this insight, I’ll touch upon the company’s business model and provide an overview of its operations. 

4. China Gas Placement – Larger Deals Traded Flat but Good Track Record Should Help

Overall

A shareholder of China Gas Holdings (384 HK) is looking to sell about 142m shares worth approximatel US$443m. This is a clean-up trade.

The deal scores well on our framework owing to its pristine track record of outperformance and decent earnings momentum. It is also a clean-up trade, hence, no overhang on its share price.

However, the performance of prev deals show that placements larger than HK$3bn tend to perform flat over one-month period whereas placements with smaller deal size did well. 

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Brief IPOs & Placements: ECM Weekly (6 April 2019) – Bilibili, Huya, Qutoutiao, Polycab, PNB Metlife, CIMC Vehicle and more

By | ECM

In this briefing:

  1. ECM Weekly (6 April 2019) – Bilibili, Huya, Qutoutiao, Polycab, PNB Metlife, CIMC Vehicle
  2. Japan Post Insurance Placement – 3x the IPO Size – Basics and Index Impact
  3. Huya Offering: Everyone Else Was Doing It Excuse
  4. Huya Placement: Best Performing Live Streaming Stock but Beware Douyu Is Catching Up
  5. Ruhnn (如涵) Trading Update – Worst First-Day Performance Out of Recent US ADR Listings

1. ECM Weekly (6 April 2019) – Bilibili, Huya, Qutoutiao, Polycab, PNB Metlife, CIMC Vehicle

Total deals since inception accuracy rate since inception  chartbuilder

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by Smartkarma Insight Providers recently, along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Placements activity picked up momentum this week as evidenced by the number of follow-on offerings launched by a handful of US-listed Chinese tech companies. It all started with Qutoutiao Inc (QTT US) ‘s follow-on offering, then followed by Bilibili Inc (BILI US)‘s equity + convertible note placement, and ending the week with HUYA Inc (HUYA US)‘s follow-on offering and Baozun Inc. (BZUN US)‘s convertible bond and placement. 

On the other hand, Ruhnn Holding Ltd (RUHN US)‘s debut this week had been a total disaster. It closed 37% below its IPO price on the first day. This is the worst first-day performance among Chinese ADRs (deal size >US$100m) in the past six months.

Back in Hong Kong, Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK) also broke its IPO price on the first day after relaunching at a much lower price. As per our trading update note, considering that there will be greenshoe support, we thought that the risk to reward could be favorable for a trade (from its first day mid-day price of HK$2.57). 

As for placements, Ronshine China Holdings (3301 HK) seems to have made its equity raise a yearly affair. The company is back to tap the equity market through a top-up placement and it has done the same in 2017 and 2018. The initial deal size was small, US$122m, but was upsized later on. The share price traded well post-placement, closing 9.5% above its deal price of HK$10.95 on Thursday.

For upcoming IPOs, we heard that Leong Hup International (LEHUP MK) has started pre-marketing and Sumeet Singh had already shared his early thoughts on the company in Leong Hup Pre-IPO – Hard to Pinpoint What’s Going to Be the Revenue Driver Going Forward.

We are also waiting for Shenwan Hongyuan Hk (218 HK) and CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1706044D HK) to launch their IPO since they already been approved on the HKEX. Ke Yan, CFA, FRM had also analyzed the two companies in his notes:

Map Aktif Adiperkasa PT (MAPA IJ) will be closing its bookbuild for its follow-on offering next Tuesday (pricing on Wednesday). We heard that books are already covered as of Thursday.

Accuracy Rate:

Our overall accuracy rate is 72.4% for IPOs and 63.5% for Placements 

(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)

New IPO filings

  • Changliao AKA 派派(Hong Kong, ~US$100m)

Below is a snippet of our IPO tool showing upcoming events for the next week. The IPO tool is designed to provide readers with timely information on all IPO related events (Book open/closing, listing, initiation, lock-up expiry, etc) for all the deals that we have worked on. You can access the tool here or through the tools menu.

Source: Aequitas Research, Smartkarma

News on Upcoming IPOs

This week Analysis on Upcoming IPO

NameInsight
Hong Kong
AB InbevAb InBev Asia Pre-IPO – A Brief History of the Asia Pacific Operations – Eeking Out Growth in China
AscentageAscentage Pharma (亚盛医药) IPO: Too Early for an IPO
Ant FinancialAnt Financial IPO Early Thought: Understand Fintech Empire, Growth & Risk Factors
CIMC VehCIMC Vehicle (中集车辆): Market Leader of Semi-Trailers but Little Growth Ahead
ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) IPO: How Jinri Toutiao Paves The Way for a Bigger Empire (Part 1)

ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) IPO: Tiktok the No.1 Short Video App for a Good Reason (Part 2)

East EduChina East Education (中国东方教育) Pre-IPO – The Company Known for Its Culinary School
China TobacChina Tobacco International (IPO): The Monopolist Will Not Recover
China TobacChina Tobacco Intl (HK) IPO: Proxy For the Chinese Cigarette Consumption
ESRESR Cayman Pre-IPO – A Giant in the Making
ESR

ESR Cayman Pre-IPO – Earnings and Segment Analysis 

ESR

ESR Cayman Pre-IPO- First Stab at Valuation

Frontage

Frontage Holding (方达控股) IPO: More Disclosure Needed to Understand Moat and Growth Prospect

Frontage

Frontage Holding (方达控股) IPO: Updates from 2018 Numbers

Hujiang Edu

Hujiang Education (沪江教育) Pre-IPO – Spending More than It Earns

Jinxin

Jinxin Fertility (锦欣生殖) Pre-IPO: Strong Foothold in Sichuan but Weak Sentiment for Sector

MicuRxMicuRx Pharma (盟科医药) IPO: Betting on Single Drug in the Not so Attractive Antibiotic Segment
SH Henlius

Shanghai Henlius (复宏汉霖) IPO: Not an Impressive Biosimilar Portfolio 

TubatuTubatu Group Pre-IPO – Performing Better than Qeeka but Growing Much Slower, US$1bn a Stretch
TubatuTubatu Group Pre-IPO – Online -> Online + Offline -> Online -> ?
ShenwanShenwan Hongyuan (申万宏源) A+H: A Commoditized Broker Business
Viva BioViva Biotech (维亚生物) IPO: When CRO Becomes Early Stage Biotech Investor
Viva BioViva Biotech (维亚生物) IPO: Warning Signs from 2018 Numbers (Part 2)
South Korea
KMH ShillaKMH Shilla Leisure IPO Preview (Part 1) – Highly Profitable Operator of Public Golf Courses in Korea
KMH ShillaKMH Shilla Leisure IPO Preview (Part 2) – Valuation Analysis
Plakor

Plakor IPO Preview (Part 1)

PagerDuty

PagerDuty IPO Preview

SNK

SNK Corp (950180 KS)

ZinusZinus IPO Preview (Part 1) – An Amazing Comeback Story (#1 Mattress Brand on Amazon)
India
Anmol IndAnmol Industries Pre-IPO Quick Take – No Growth, Generous Payments to Founders
Bharat Hotels

Bharat Hotels Pre-IPO – Catching up with Peers 

CMS InfoCMS Info Systems Pre-IPO Review – When a PE Sells to Another PE… Only One Gets the Timing Right
Crystal CropCrystal Crop Protection Pre-IPO – DRHP Raises More Questions than in Answers
Flemingo Flemingo Travel Retail Pre-IPO – Its a Different Business in Every Country
NSENSE IPO Preview- Not Only Fast..its Risky and Expensive
NSENational Stock Exchange Pre-IPO Review – Bigger, Better, Stronger but a Little Too Fast for Some
MazagonMazagon Dock IPO Preview: A Monopoly Submarine Yard in India with Captive Navy Spending
Mrs. BectorMrs. Bectors Food Specialities Pre-IPO Quick Take – Sales for Its Main Segment Have Been Sta

Lodha

Lodha Developers Pre-IPO – Second Time Lucky but Not Really that Much Affordable
LodhaLodha Developers IPO: Large Presence in Affordable Segment Saves Lodha the Blushes in a Sluggish Mkt
IndiaMartIndiaMART Pre-IPO – Getting and Retaining Subscribers Seems to Be Difficult
PNB MetPNB Metlife Pre-IPO Quick Take – Doesn’t Stack up Well Versus Its Larger Peers
Malaysia
QSRQSR Brands Pre-IPO – As Healthy as Fast Food
LeongHupLeong Hup Pre-IPO – Hard to Pinpoint What’s Going to Be the Revenue Driver Going Forward
The U.S
YunjiYunji (云集) Pre-IPO Review – Poor Disclosure on Data

2. Japan Post Insurance Placement – 3x the IPO Size – Basics and Index Impact

Price%20performance%20since%20listing

Yesterday, post-market close, Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)(JPH) announced that it will sell 185m shares (including over-allotment) or 30.8% of Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP)(JPI) amounting to US$4bn. JPI plans to buy back up to 50m shares out of these, leaving around US$3.1bn worth of stock to be placed. Out of these 185m shares, 30% will be placed with foreigners.

The selldown is part of the government’s plan for privatization under which JPH is supposed to reduce its stake in JPI and Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)(JPB) to around 50%. This was highlighted in the IPO of the three entities in 2015. Thus, the deal is not totally unexpected but the timing of it was never certain. For people interested in more about the history and background, we’ve covered the IPO and JPH sell down in the below series of insights:

In this insight, I’ll comment on some of the deal dynamics and index weighting impact.

3. Huya Offering: Everyone Else Was Doing It Excuse

Gross%20margin

Follow-on offerings by Chinese ADRs are the flavour of the day. Hot on the heels of Qutoutiao Inc (QTT US) and Bilibili Inc (BILI US), HUYA Inc (HUYA US) filed for a potential $550 million public offering without presenting any details on the new ADS being offered. Also, certain selling shareholders will offer shares in the offering.

Huya is one of the few recent Chinese “new-economy” IPOs which has lived up to the hype by delivering a creditable post-IPO financial performance. While Huya has proven to be a good IPO, we believe this follow-on offering is highly opportunistic and would be tempted to participate only at a large discount.

4. Huya Placement: Best Performing Live Streaming Stock but Beware Douyu Is Catching Up

Quarterly%20financials

Huya, a leading live streaming player in China, announced share placement of USD 550 million after market close on April 3rd. In this insight, we will look at recent developments of Huya and score the deal in our ECM Framework.

5. Ruhnn (如涵) Trading Update – Worst First-Day Performance Out of Recent US ADR Listings

Ruhn%20gip

Ruhnn Holding Ltd (RUHN US) raised US$125m at US$12.50 per share, the mid-point of the price range. We have previously analyzed the IPO in:

In this insight, we will update on the deal dynamics, implied valuation, and include a valuation sensitivity table.

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Brief IPOs & Placements: Naspers: Addressing the Discount (Again). New Moves to Realize Value Are Having an Impact and more

By | ECM

In this briefing:

  1. Naspers: Addressing the Discount (Again). New Moves to Realize Value Are Having an Impact
  2. Ronshine (融信集团) Placement – Back for a Equity Raise
  3. Polycab India Limited IPO – Probably Near Peak Margins, Improvements Unexplained
  4. Dongzheng Auto Finance (东正汽车金融) Trading Update – Could Be Worth Setting up a Trade
  5. Bilibili Offering: Unnecessary and Opportunistic

1. Naspers: Addressing the Discount (Again). New Moves to Realize Value Are Having an Impact

Npn%20weights

Naspers (NPN SJ) recently announced another attempt to reduce the holdco discount which has remained stubbornly high despite previous attempts by management to reduce it. Since the announcement there has been movement, so perhaps this time it really is different!

So what is being done? Naspers will spin off its international internet assets, which account for >99% of its value, into a newco. They will then list 25% of newco on the Euronext in Amsterdam by issuing these shares to Naspers’ shareholders. The intention is to create a vehicle which can attract increased foreign and tech investors without the complication of a South African listing. The company believes this has been a key factor behind the wide holdco discount. The move also reduces Naspers weighting in South African indices which is another contributing factor.

Alastair Jones sees the announcement as a positive, although there are still issues with the main listing being in South Africa. He still believes a buyback would be the most effective way to reduce the discount, but Naspers is also keen to keep investing. 

2. Ronshine (融信集团) Placement – Back for a Equity Raise

Revenue%20muss

Ronshine China Holdings (3301 HK) is looking to raise about US$122m in a top-up placement.

The deal scores marginally positive on our framework owing to its decent track record, and price and earnings momentum.

Its past deals have done well in the long run. Even though it did not perform well over the one-month period, its first week returns have tend to hold up above the deal price.

3. Polycab India Limited IPO – Probably Near Peak Margins, Improvements Unexplained

Peer%20comparison

Polycab India (POLY IN) plans to raise around US$190m in its IPO through a mix of selling primary and secondary shares. It is the largest manufacturer of wires and cables in India with a 12% market share, as per CRISIL research. The company also recently entered the consumer electrical segments. 

I covered the company background and past financial performance in my previous insight, Polycab India Limited Pre-IPO – Market Leader with Steady Growth but with a Few Unanswered Question.

In this insight, I’ll run the deal through our IPO framework, and comment on valuation and updates since the previous filing.

4. Dongzheng Auto Finance (东正汽车金融) Trading Update – Could Be Worth Setting up a Trade

Price%20performabnce

Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK) raised US$208m at a fixed price of HK$3.06 per share. We have covered the IPO extensively in:

In this insight, we will update on the deal dynamics, implied valuation, and include a valuation sensitivity table.

5. Bilibili Offering: Unnecessary and Opportunistic

Revenue%20growth

On Monday, Bilibili Inc (BILI US) unveiled plans to raise around $192 million (based on the closing price of $18.95 per ADS) through a public offering of 10.6 million ADS and a concurrent offering of $300 million convertible senior notes. Also, certain selling shareholders will offer 6.5 ADS in the offering.

We believe bilibili’s fundamentals are mixed as rapid monthly active users (MAUs) and non-mobile games growth is offset by a declining margin and higher cash burn. Overall, the proposed offering is unnecessary and highly opportunistic, and we would not participate in the offering.

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Brief IPOs & Placements: NIO (NIO US): Lock-Up Expiry – This Could Get Messy and more

By | ECM

In this briefing:

  1. NIO (NIO US): Lock-Up Expiry – This Could Get Messy

1. NIO (NIO US): Lock-Up Expiry – This Could Get Messy

Deliveries

Yesterday, NIO Inc (NIO US)’s share tumbled 20% on the back of poor 1Q19 guidance. NIO warned that deliveries of ES8, its electric SUV, have been sluggish so far in 2019 and scrapped plans to build its Shanghai Manufacturing Plant. NIO blamed the slump on uncertainty over government subsidies for electric vehicles, China’s slowing economy and disruption caused by the Chinese New Year holidays.

The weak guidance could not come at a worse time as its six-month lock-up period expires on 11 March 2019. We continue to remain bears on NIO and believe that the lock-up expiry will lead to further share price weakness.

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Brief IPOs & Placements: Yingcheng Intl (银城国际) – Quick Post-IPO Trading Update and more

By | ECM

In this briefing:

  1. Yingcheng Intl (银城国际) – Quick Post-IPO Trading Update

1. Yingcheng Intl (银城国际) – Quick Post-IPO Trading Update

Valuation%20march%206th

Yincheng International Holdi (1902 HK) raised US$100m in at HK$2.38 per share, at the mid-point of its IPO price range. We have previously covered the IPO in:

In this insight, we will update on the deal dynamics, implied valuation, and include a valuation sensitivity table.

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Brief IPOs & Placements: Yingcheng Intl (银城国际) – Quick Post-IPO Trading Update and more

By | ECM

In this briefing:

  1. Yingcheng Intl (银城国际) – Quick Post-IPO Trading Update
  2. Sea Ltd (SE US): The Bear Case – A One-Hit Wonder?

1. Yingcheng Intl (银城国际) – Quick Post-IPO Trading Update

Valuation%20march%206th

Yincheng International Holdi (1902 HK) raised US$100m in at HK$2.38 per share, at the mid-point of its IPO price range. We have previously covered the IPO in:

In this insight, we will update on the deal dynamics, implied valuation, and include a valuation sensitivity table.

2. Sea Ltd (SE US): The Bear Case – A One-Hit Wonder?

Gaming%20downloads%20fy18

Despite burning through $700mn in cash in 2018, investors decided to give another $1.3bn to Sea Ltd (SE US) . We believe investors should treat Sea Ltd with caution for the following reasons:

A significant slowdown in e-commerce

Is the gaming division a one-hit wonder?

Expecting another 800mn cash burn into 2019

Consensus has priced in further upgrades while cash flow metrics worst in the sector

NB. Our team has taken both sides of the Sea Ltd investment case as we think this makes for better decision making and encourages unique thinking within our team. We strongly recommend that investors read my colleague Arun’s positive notes on the company listed below, if you have not already done so.

Sea Ltd (SE US): Placing Price Leaves Money on the Table

Sea Ltd (SE US): Placement a Good Opportunity to Enter an Attractive Story

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Brief IPOs & Placements: Yingcheng Intl (银城国际) – Quick Post-IPO Trading Update and more

By | ECM

In this briefing:

  1. Yingcheng Intl (银城国际) – Quick Post-IPO Trading Update
  2. Sea Ltd (SE US): The Bear Case – A One-Hit Wonder?
  3. Sea Ltd (SE US): Placing Price Leaves Money on the Table

1. Yingcheng Intl (银城国际) – Quick Post-IPO Trading Update

Valuation%20march%206th

Yincheng International Holdi (1902 HK) raised US$100m in at HK$2.38 per share, at the mid-point of its IPO price range. We have previously covered the IPO in:

In this insight, we will update on the deal dynamics, implied valuation, and include a valuation sensitivity table.

2. Sea Ltd (SE US): The Bear Case – A One-Hit Wonder?

Gaming%20downloads%20fy18

Despite burning through $700mn in cash in 2018, investors decided to give another $1.3bn to Sea Ltd (SE US) . We believe investors should treat Sea Ltd with caution for the following reasons:

A significant slowdown in e-commerce

Is the gaming division a one-hit wonder?

Expecting another 800mn cash burn into 2019

Consensus has priced in further upgrades while cash flow metrics worst in the sector

NB. Our team has taken both sides of the Sea Ltd investment case as we think this makes for better decision making and encourages unique thinking within our team. We strongly recommend that investors read my colleague Arun’s positive notes on the company listed below, if you have not already done so.

Sea Ltd (SE US): Placing Price Leaves Money on the Table

Sea Ltd (SE US): Placement a Good Opportunity to Enter an Attractive Story

3. Sea Ltd (SE US): Placing Price Leaves Money on the Table

Sea Ltd (SE US) announced that it would raise gross proceeds of $1.35 billion after increasing the size of its placement from 50 million to 60 million ADS. The placement is priced at $22.50 per ADS, 6.5% discount to its last close price. Tencent Holdings (700 HK), as well as one of Sea’s directors, are expected to buy 6.3 million ADS in the placement. The placing is expected to close on or about 8 March 2019.

In our previous note, we stated that we would participate in the public offering at or below the last close price of $23. While the share price will initially trade around the placing price, we believe that share price will recover as Sea post-placing fundamentals are now materially stronger.

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Brief IPOs & Placements: Yingcheng Intl (银城国际) – Quick Post-IPO Trading Update and more

By | ECM

In this briefing:

  1. Yingcheng Intl (银城国际) – Quick Post-IPO Trading Update
  2. Sea Ltd (SE US): The Bear Case – A One-Hit Wonder?
  3. Sea Ltd (SE US): Placing Price Leaves Money on the Table
  4. Meituan Dianping (美团点评): Thoughts Before Lock-Up Expiry

1. Yingcheng Intl (银城国际) – Quick Post-IPO Trading Update

Valuation%20march%206th

Yincheng International Holdi (1902 HK) raised US$100m in at HK$2.38 per share, at the mid-point of its IPO price range. We have previously covered the IPO in:

In this insight, we will update on the deal dynamics, implied valuation, and include a valuation sensitivity table.

2. Sea Ltd (SE US): The Bear Case – A One-Hit Wonder?

Gaming%20downloads%20fy18

Despite burning through $700mn in cash in 2018, investors decided to give another $1.3bn to Sea Ltd (SE US) . We believe investors should treat Sea Ltd with caution for the following reasons:

A significant slowdown in e-commerce

Is the gaming division a one-hit wonder?

Expecting another 800mn cash burn into 2019

Consensus has priced in further upgrades while cash flow metrics worst in the sector

NB. Our team has taken both sides of the Sea Ltd investment case as we think this makes for better decision making and encourages unique thinking within our team. We strongly recommend that investors read my colleague Arun’s positive notes on the company listed below, if you have not already done so.

Sea Ltd (SE US): Placing Price Leaves Money on the Table

Sea Ltd (SE US): Placement a Good Opportunity to Enter an Attractive Story

3. Sea Ltd (SE US): Placing Price Leaves Money on the Table

Sea Ltd (SE US) announced that it would raise gross proceeds of $1.35 billion after increasing the size of its placement from 50 million to 60 million ADS. The placement is priced at $22.50 per ADS, 6.5% discount to its last close price. Tencent Holdings (700 HK), as well as one of Sea’s directors, are expected to buy 6.3 million ADS in the placement. The placing is expected to close on or about 8 March 2019.

In our previous note, we stated that we would participate in the public offering at or below the last close price of $23. While the share price will initially trade around the placing price, we believe that share price will recover as Sea post-placing fundamentals are now materially stronger.

4. Meituan Dianping (美团点评): Thoughts Before Lock-Up Expiry

Valuation%20mar%206%202019

Meituan Dianping, the largest O2O platform in China, was listed on September 20th last year and lock-up expiry will be on March 20th. The stock has returned -13% since listing. 

  • As it heads into lock-up expiry on March 20th, we will examine Meituan Dianping shareholder structure and potential shares up for sale.
  • Meituan was included by MSCI recently and will be eligible for the Hong Kong Connect soon thanks to rule amendment.
  • The company delivered a decent topline growth in 3Q2018 but its profit fell short of expectation. We highlight potentials from the food supply chain solution. We also discuss implication from MoBike acquisition.
  • We review our SOTP valuation of Meituan and believe there is an upside. 

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