ECM Daily Briefs | Page 3 of 126

In today’s briefing:

Kioxia IPO Preview
Weekly Deals Digest (24 Nov) – SF Holding, FineToday, KEPCO, Seven & I, Kadokawa, HKBN, Arcadium

Kioxia IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

Kioxia plans to complete its IPO on 18 December, valuing Kioxia at 750 billion yen ($4.8 billion), down nearly 50% from the initial market value estimates about 2-3 months ago.
Kioxia had revenue of 909.4 billion Yen (up 84.6% YoY) and EBITDA of 449.6 billion Yen in 1H FY24, driven by the recovering demand for data center and enterprise SSDs.
As of 2Q 2024, Samsung Electronics was the largest player in the global NAND Flash market with a 36.9% market, followed by SK Group (22.1%), and Kioxia (13.8%).

Weekly Deals Digest (24 Nov) – SF Holding, FineToday, KEPCO, Seven & I, Kadokawa, HKBN, Arcadium

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: S.F. Holding (6936 HK) H Share listing,FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP) IPO, Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP)‘s US$3.5 billion placement.
Event-Driven developments: Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Kadokawa Dwango (9468 JP), Integrated Design & Engineering Holdings (9161 JP), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU).

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Nov 23

Daily Brief ECM: Cuscal IPO Trading – Valuation Appears Reasonable and more

In today’s briefing:

Cuscal IPO Trading – Valuation Appears Reasonable

Cuscal IPO Trading – Valuation Appears Reasonable

Cuscal (1229Z AU) raised around A$337m (US$218m) in its Australia IPO.
Cuscal is an authorized deposit-taking institution (ADI) in Australia that primarily provides financial infrastructure and payment services in Australia.
We have looked at the company’s performance and valuation in our past notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

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Nov 22

Daily Brief ECM: Kansai Electric US$3.5bn Deal Updates – Has Delivered a Decent Correction and more

In today’s briefing:

Kansai Electric US$3.5bn Deal Updates – Has Delivered a Decent Correction, as Compared to past Deals
FineToday Holdings (289A JP) IPO: The Bull Case
FineToday Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Growth and Margins Have Wavered
LG Chem’s Tax Alarm: Pillar Two Tax Could Soar Next Year + LGES Block Deal on the Horizon
SF Holding HKEx Listing: Peer Comparison and Valuation
Saint Bella Pre-IPO: Rapid Growth but Facing Birth-Rate Headwinds

Kansai Electric US$3.5bn Deal Updates – Has Delivered a Decent Correction, as Compared to past Deals

Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP) plans to raise up to US$3.5bn (including over-allocation) to partly fund its investment plans.
In our earlier note, we talked about the placement and ran the deal through our ECM framework.
In this note, we talk about the updates and share price performance since then.

FineToday Holdings (289A JP) IPO: The Bull Case

FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP) is a Japanese personal care business seeking to raise up to US$500 million. It will be listed on 17 December.
FineToday has four product categories: Hair care, Skin care, Body care, and others. Hair care is the largest category, accounting for 49.0% of 9M24 revenue.
The bull case rests on return to revenue growth, three-pronged growth strategy, top-quartile profitability and top-tier FCF generation.

FineToday Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Growth and Margins Have Wavered

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

CVC Capital is aiming to raise over US$500m, via selling some of its stake in FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP) in Japan.
FineToday (FT) is a beauty and personal care company in Asia offering a range of products, including hair care, skin care and body care products.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

LG Chem’s Tax Alarm: Pillar Two Tax Could Soar Next Year + LGES Block Deal on the Horizon

By Sanghyun Park

The local market’s buzzing that LG Chem could face a 200-300 billion KRW tax hit from Pillar Two next year, with LGES ramping up U.S. production.
LG Chem may be reconsidering its plan to sell 2% of its LGES stake, dropping ownership below 80%, shifting the tax burden to LGES instead of itself.
Flagging this now—LG Chem’s tax burden looms. Consider shorting LGES or a long-short with LG Chem, plus prep for the 2T KRW block deal with the pre-disclosure process.

SF Holding HKEx Listing: Peer Comparison and Valuation

Chinese logistics service provider SF Holding has filed for a listing on HKEx and seeks to raise HK$6.2bn (US$795m) through the issuance of 170m shares (3.4% of outstanding shares).
The listing is priced at HK$32.3-36.3 per share, as expected at a 20-29% discount to the last closed price of SF Holding’s A-Shares on 18th November.
Our valuation analysis suggests that SF Holding’s HK offering is attractive at the lower end of the indicative IPO price range.

Saint Bella Pre-IPO: Rapid Growth but Facing Birth-Rate Headwinds

By Nicholas Tan

Saint Bella (SAINT HK) is looking to raise up to US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
It operates the second largest and fastest growing postpartum care and recovery service in China, as per Frost & Sullivan. It operates an extensive network of 59 premium postpartum centers.
In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

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Nov 21

Daily Brief ECM: FineToday Pre-IPO – The Positives – Established Brands Across Multiple Regions and more

In today’s briefing:

FineToday Pre-IPO – The Positives – Established Brands Across Multiple Regions
Zinka Logistics IPO Trading – Subdued Demand; Lags Recent Listings
CiDi IPO Valuation Analysis: High Valuation Is Warranted Due To Unicorn Status/Hyper Growth Profile
Pre-IPO Mokingran Jewellery Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

FineToday Pre-IPO – The Positives – Established Brands Across Multiple Regions

CVC Capital is aiming to raise over US$500m, via selling some of its stake in FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP) in Japan.
FineToday (FT) is a beauty and personal care company in Asia offering a range of products, including hair care, skin care and body care products.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Zinka Logistics IPO Trading – Subdued Demand; Lags Recent Listings

By Akshat Shah

Blackbuck (1355652D IN) raised about US$130m in its India IPO.
Zinka Logistics (Blackbuck) is India’s largest digital platform for truck operators (in terms of number of users), with 963,345 truck operators transacting on its platform in FY24, as per Redseer.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

CiDi IPO Valuation Analysis: High Valuation Is Warranted Due To Unicorn Status/Hyper Growth Profile

By Andrei Zakharov

Changsha Intelligent Driving Institute, more commonly known as CiDi, filed for an IPO in Hong Kong. The company was valued at ~RMB9B in its last private funding round.
CiDi was backed by HongShan Capital, Xinding Capital, Founder Hesheng Investment, Legend Holdings, Baidu Venture, and Lens Technology, among others.
The terms of the IPO were not disclosed. CiDi is a category winner that is addressing a large TAM (~$10B by 2030) with room for hyper growth for years.

Pre-IPO Mokingran Jewellery Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The skyrocketing gold prices have driven up the prices of gold jewelry, but actually dampen the enthusiasm of many people to buy gold jewelry, which will directly affect MOKINGRAN’s performance.
MOKINGRAN’s prediction of gold price is incorrect. For an industry veteran, MOKINGRAN shouldn’t make such mistakes. The error in the judgment of important raw material trends is worth investors’ vigilance.
We think that valuation of MOKINGRAN should be lower than that of Lao Feng Xiang (600612 CH)/Chow Tai Seng Jewellery (002867 CH)/Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) and industry average.

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Nov 20

Daily Brief ECM: SF Holdings A/H Listing – Lower End Looks Digestable and more

In today’s briefing:

SF Holdings A/H Listing – Lower End Looks Digestable
KDC REIT Placement – Accretive Acquisitions Should Garner Strong Support
SF Holding H Share Listing (6936 HK): Valuation Insights
Oswal Pumps Pre-IPO – Revenue Surge Driven by Growing Demand in Solar Projects
Pre-IPO S.F. Holding (6936 HK) – Thoughts on Valuation and the Outlook
DigiCo REIT – The Negatives – Not All Engines Are Firing
NTPC Green IPO – Grand Plans to Grow Its Portfolio, but Appears Expensive

SF Holdings A/H Listing – Lower End Looks Digestable

S.F. Holding (002352 CH), China’s largest express delivery company, is now looking to raise around US$800m in its H-share listing in Hong Kong.
SFH is the largest integrated express logistics service provider in China and the fourth largest in the world. It has been listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange since 2017.
We have covered the company and deal background in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

KDC REIT Placement – Accretive Acquisitions Should Garner Strong Support

Keppel DC REIT (KDCREIT SP) is looking to raise S$600m (US$450m) from a primary placement. The proceeds will be used to acquire interest in two data centers in Singapore.
The deal will be a large one to digest, accounting for 47 days of the stock’s three month ADV. That said, the acquisitions appear to be accretive to bottomline.
In this note, we’ll run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

SF Holding H Share Listing (6936 HK): Valuation Insights

S.F. Holding (002352 CH) has launched its H Share listing at HK$32.30-36.30 per share. Pricing will be on 25 November, and the listing on 27 November.
We previously discussed the listing in SF Holding H Share Listing: Updates Point to Improving Fundamentals and SF Holding H Share Listing: AH Discount Views.
Our valuation analysis suggests that the H Share listing range is attractive. We would participate in the listing.

Oswal Pumps Pre-IPO – Revenue Surge Driven by Growing Demand in Solar Projects

By Rosita Fernandes

Oswal Pumps (1019841D IN) (OPL), established in 2003, specializes in the manufacturing of solar-powered and conventional pumps, electric motors, and related components for agricultural, residential, and industrial applications.
The company has established itself as a leading player in the solar pump market, benefiting from government initiatives such as the PM Kusum scheme
OPL aims to use its IPO proceeds to fund its expansion plans, including increasing manufacturing capacity and diversifying its product offerings.

Pre-IPO S.F. Holding (6936 HK) – Thoughts on Valuation and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

One important reason S.F. chose to go public on Hong Kong stock market is due to financial pressure, which mainly comes from its heavy asset development model and internationalization strategy.
Considering the discount of the H-share price versus the A-share price, if the IPO pricing is at the lower limit of the range, then the safety margin would be higher.
In the short term, S.F. is better than JD Logistics, so its valuation should be higher than JD Logistics and industry average. Future valuation expansion depends on international business performance.

DigiCo REIT – The Negatives – Not All Engines Are Firing

DigiCo REIT (DIGICO AU) aims to raise over US$1bn in its Australian IPO.
DigiCo REIT (DREIT) aims to be a diversified owner, operator and developer of data centres, with a global portfolio and broad investment mandate across stabilised, value-add and development opportunities
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

NTPC Green IPO – Grand Plans to Grow Its Portfolio, but Appears Expensive

NTPC Green Energy Ltd (2214556D IN) is looking to raise around US$1.2bn in its upcoming India IPO.
NTPC Green Energy Limited (NGEL) is a renewable energy public sector enterprise and a wholly owned subsidiary of NTPC Limited, a Maharatna central public sector enterprise (PSU).
In an earlier note, we looked at the firm’s past performance. In this note, we look at its RHP updates, undertake a peer comparison and discuss our thoughts on valuation.

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Nov 19

Daily Brief ECM: SF Holding Pre-IPO: Deal Goes Live in HK and more

In today’s briefing:

SF Holding Pre-IPO: Deal Goes Live in HK, Company Hopes to Raise ~US$800 Mn, Less Than Anticipated
DigiCo REIT – The Positives – Hot Sector with Built in Growth
Pre-IPO Hangzhou Jiuyuan Gene Engineering (PHIP Updates) – The Future Prospects Are Not Optimistic

SF Holding Pre-IPO: Deal Goes Live in HK, Company Hopes to Raise ~US$800 Mn, Less Than Anticipated

By Daniel Hellberg

SF Holding’s HKEX listing launched on Tuesday, November 19th; deal to be priced by 26th
SF hopes to raise about US$800 mn, less than originally anticipated in financial media
About one quarter of the offering will be taken up by ten cornerstone investors

DigiCo REIT – The Positives – Hot Sector with Built in Growth

DigiCo REIT (DIGICO AU) aims to raise over US$1bn in its Australian IPO.
DigiCo REIT (DREIT) aims to be a diversified owner, operator and developer of data centres, with a global portfolio and broad investment mandate across stabilised, value-add and development opportunities
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Pre-IPO Hangzhou Jiuyuan Gene Engineering (PHIP Updates) – The Future Prospects Are Not Optimistic

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Based on current performance, Jiuyuan has lost growth momentum, showing signs of stagnant growth. The main reason is VBP. So far, Jiouting, Yinuojia, Jifuwei have been included in VBP.
Guyoudao is facing competitive pressure from both domestic and international competitors and could be finally included in VBP. JY29-2 is the next blockbuster product, but the prospects are not clear.
Jiuyuan’s market value is expected to be higher than Qyuns. Future valuation performance will depend on the progress of JY29-2 and the overall market situation of GLP-1s at that time

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Nov 18

Daily Brief ECM: SF Holding H Share Listing: AH Discount Views and more

In today’s briefing:

SF Holding H Share Listing: AH Discount Views
Cuscal IPO – Peers Have Traded Up, Decent Margin of Safety from Here
Pony AI IPO – Autonomous Valuation
ECM Weekly (18th Nov 2024) – SF Holdings, MNC, Swiggy, Sagility, Niva, GMM, Zinka, Kansai, Go Digit
CiDi IPO Preview: Uniquely Positioned For Growth In Autonomous Mining and Logistics Trucks

SF Holding H Share Listing: AH Discount Views

S.F. Holding (002352 CH), the largest Asian integrated logistics service provider, is premarketing an H Share listing to raise US$1.0-1.5 billion, according to press reports.
In SF Holding H Share Listing: Updates Point to Improving Fundamentals, we noted that SF is in good health, with a return to growth, rising margins, and strong cash generation.
In this note, we examine the likely discount SF Holding will offer its H Shares compared to the A Shares.

Cuscal IPO – Peers Have Traded Up, Decent Margin of Safety from Here

Cuscal (1229Z AU) is looking to raise A$337m (US$218m) in its Australia IPO.
Cuscal is an authorized deposit-taking institution (ADI) in Australia that primarily provides financial infrastructure and payment services in Australia.
In this note, we look at the updates since our last look-through and share our thoughts on valuation.

Pony AI IPO – Autonomous Valuation

Pony AI (PONY US), an autonomous mobility solutions provider, is looking to raise up to US$195m in its US IPO.
As per Frost & Sullivan, Pony AI was among the first companies in China to obtain licenses to operate fully driverless robotaxis in all four Tier-1 cities in China.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the IPO valuations.

ECM Weekly (18th Nov 2024) – SF Holdings, MNC, Swiggy, Sagility, Niva, GMM, Zinka, Kansai, Go Digit

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPOs front, the usual year end deal flow appears to be picking up with US elections now out of the way.
On the placements front, Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP) launched a large primary offering, while Varun Beverages (VBL IN) did the same in India.

CiDi IPO Preview: Uniquely Positioned For Growth In Autonomous Mining and Logistics Trucks

By Andrei Zakharov

CiDi, a China’s leading provider of AD technology for commercial vehicles, will tap equity markets in Hong Kong for growth capital.
The autonomous driving company with focus on autonomous mining and logistics trucks, V2X technologies, and high-performance perception solutions, filed its IPO prospectus.
I like CiDi’s leadership position in autonomous mining industry, hyper-growth trajectory and differentiated full-stack autonomous mining solution.

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Nov 17

Daily Brief ECM: SF Holding Pre-IPO: Three Important Issues for Long-Term Investors to Consider and more

In today’s briefing:

SF Holding Pre-IPO: Three Important Issues for Long-Term Investors to Consider
Pony AI IPO Pricing: The Bottom Of a Range Looks Reasonable After WeRide’s Mixed Debut

SF Holding Pre-IPO: Three Important Issues for Long-Term Investors to Consider

By Daniel Hellberg

SF Holding’s domestic parcel volumes have grown slower than overall market volumes recently; is this strategic, or simply a loss of share?
SF Holding is not closely aligned with any of the large online retail platforms in China; ultimately, is this independence an advantage or a disadvantage?
When will SF Holdings’ varied international operations — and there are a few of them — begin to pull their own weight, in terms of profitability and growth?

Pony AI IPO Pricing: The Bottom Of a Range Looks Reasonable After WeRide’s Mixed Debut

By Andrei Zakharov

Pony AI, a China’s robotaxi operator and self-driving technology company, plans to raise up to $360M in upcoming IPO and concurrent private placements.
Pony AI is expected to IPO next week. The company’s amended F-1 puts the price range per ADS at $11.00-$13.00, implying a market cap of ~$4.2B at the midpoint.
I believe Pony AI may price its IPO at the bottom of a range after WeRide’s mixed debut. IPO valuation suggests a drop from last round valuation of ~$8.5B.

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Nov 15

Daily Brief ECM: SF Holding H Share Listing: Updates Point to Improving Fundamentals and more

In today’s briefing:

SF Holding H Share Listing: Updates Point to Improving Fundamentals
Zinka Logistics IPO – Has Grown Rapidly but Looks Expensive
CiDi Inc. Pre-IPO Tearsheet
MNC Solutions Pre-IPO – Momentum Has Been Very Strong, Although Some Corp Gov Issues to Watch For

SF Holding H Share Listing: Updates Point to Improving Fundamentals

S.F. Holding (002352 CH), the largest Asian integrated logistics service provider, is premarketing an H Share listing to raise US$1.0-1.5 billion, according to press reports.
SF is the largest integrated logistics service player in China and Asia and the fourth largest player globally in terms of revenue in 2023, according to Frost & Sullivan.
The PHIP update shows that the business is in good health, with a return to growth, rising margins, and strong cash generation. Therefore, a premium multiple to peers is justified.

Zinka Logistics IPO – Has Grown Rapidly but Looks Expensive

By Akshat Shah

Blackbuck (1355652D IN) is looking to raise about US$130m in its India IPO.
Zinka Logistics (Blackbuck) is India’s largest digital platform for truck operators (in terms of number of users), with 963,345 truck operators transacting on its platform in FY24, as per Redseer.
Previously, we talked about the company’s historical performance. In this note, we share our quick thoughts on peer comparison and valuation.

CiDi Inc. Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Nicholas Tan

CiDi Inc (CIDI HK) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by CICC, China Securities and Ping An.
It is a leading provider of autonomous driving technology for commercial vehicles in China.
It focuses on research and development of autonomous mining and logistics trucks, V2X technologies and high-performance perception solutions.

MNC Solutions Pre-IPO – Momentum Has Been Very Strong, Although Some Corp Gov Issues to Watch For

MNC Solution (MNC KS) MNC Solutions is looking to raise US$200m in its upcoming Korea IPO.
MNC Solutions (MNC) supplies high-precision control components for maritime and aviation weaponry, and travel devices for stabilization to the defense industry.
In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

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Nov 14

Daily Brief ECM: Kansai Electric (9503 JP) – HUGE Equity Offering To Stuff Retail and more

In today’s briefing:

Kansai Electric (9503 JP) – HUGE Equity Offering To Stuff Retail
Kansai Electric Placement – A US$3.5bn Raising Which Doesn’t Appear Well Flagged
Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP): A US$3.5 Billion Primary/Secondary Offering
Initial Thoughts on the Klarna IPO
Zinka Logistics Pre-IPO – Continued Financial Underperformance in a Highly Fragmented Market
GMM Group Pre-IPO: Tuning into Thailand’s Digital Music Boom
Niva Bupa Health Insurance IPO Trading – Demand Lagged Recent Listings

Kansai Electric (9503 JP) – HUGE Equity Offering To Stuff Retail

By Travis Lundy

The past few years, large equity offerings have either been IPOs or secondary offerings (without dilution). Today we get a big dilutive secondary offering from Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP).
This is ~223mm shares or roughly ¥530bn against a current market cap of ¥2.1+trln. A 25% increase in share count. It is quite dilutive, but the stock is not rich.
Because dilutive, not overly-well-flagged, and mostly retail, this could get hammered. The div is not high enough to make it attractive, so one has to appreciate high earnings yield.

Kansai Electric Placement – A US$3.5bn Raising Which Doesn’t Appear Well Flagged

Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP) plans to raise up to US$3.5bn (including over-allocation) to partly fund its investment plans.
This will be a large deal for the stock to digest and doesn’t appear to have been particularly well flagged.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP): A US$3.5 Billion Primary/Secondary Offering

Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP) has announced primary and secondary offerings of up to 223.1 million shares (including overallotment) and a third-party allotment of 29.1 million shares.
JPY239.9 billion of proceeds will be used to improve energy efficiency and decarbonisation, while other funds will be used for data centres, renewable energy and overseas investments.
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 26 and 29 November (likely 26 November).

Initial Thoughts on the Klarna IPO

By Douglas Kim

On 12 November, Klarna announced that it confidentially filed public offering paperwork. The company is getting ready for an IPO in 1H 2025.
Klarna’s valuation reached as high as $45 billion in 2021 which declined to as low as $6.5 billion. Its valuation has recently risen to about $14.6 billion.
Klarna generated 13.27 billion SEK in revenue (US$1.2 billion) in 1H 2024 (up 27% YoY). Operating margin improved significantly from -18% in 1H 2023 to -2% in 1H 2024.

Zinka Logistics Pre-IPO – Continued Financial Underperformance in a Highly Fragmented Market

By Akshat Shah

Blackbuck (1355652D IN) is looking to raise around US$130m in its India IPO.
Zinka Logistics (Blackbuck) is India’s largest digital platform for truck operators (in terms of number of users), with 963,345 truck operators transacting on its platform in FY24, as per Redseer.
In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.

GMM Group Pre-IPO: Tuning into Thailand’s Digital Music Boom

By Nicholas Tan

GMM Music (2465778D TB) is looking to raise at least US $100m in its upcoming Thai IPO.
It is part of the largest, sprawling, public listed media conglomerate, GMM Grammy, and operates a pure play music business covering the entire value chain.
In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

Niva Bupa Health Insurance IPO Trading – Demand Lagged Recent Listings