ECM Daily Briefs | Page 22 of 118

In today’s briefing:

India Shelter Finance IPO Trading – Subscription Pulled by Strong Insti Demand
Credo Brands Marketing IPO- Forensic Analysis

India Shelter Finance IPO Trading – Subscription Pulled by Strong Insti Demand

By Clarence Chu

India Shelter Finance (0570670D IN) raised around US$144m from its India IPO.
India Shelter Finance (ISF) is a retail-focused HFC targeting the self-employed customer with a focus on first time home loan takers in the low and middle income group.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

Credo Brands Marketing IPO- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

Credo Brands (Mufti) (CREDO IN) IPO opens as a full OFS worth INR 5.5 bn.
The company operates ‘Mufti’ which is one of the renowned brands in Indian Men Casual Fashion category.
CMBL faces several questions including employee pay vs KMP, accounting for unsold inventory, delay in important payments, conflict of interest with BoD/SMPs etc.

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Dec 19

Daily Brief ECM: Muthoot Microfin IPO – RHP Updates and more

In today’s briefing:

Muthoot Microfin IPO – RHP Updates, Quick Peer Comparison and Thoughts on Valuation

Muthoot Microfin IPO – RHP Updates, Quick Peer Comparison and Thoughts on Valuation

Muthoot Microfin (1363943D IN) is looking to raise up to US$116m in its Indian IPO, after downsizing from an earlier reported float of US$163m.
Muthoot Microfin (MMF) is a microfinance institution providing micro-loans to women customers with a focus on the rural regions of India.
In our previous note, we looked at the company’s performance. In this note, we talk about the company’s RHP updates and share our quick thoughts on peer comp and valuation.

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Dec 18

Daily Brief ECM: Could US Lawmakers Actually Stop SHEIN’s US IPO? No and more

In today’s briefing:

Could US Lawmakers Actually Stop SHEIN’s US IPO? No, But They Sure Could Make Things Difficult
REPT BATTERO Energy IPO Trading – Needs to Correct by 20-30%, at Least
Octillion Energy Holdings Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Could US Lawmakers Actually Stop SHEIN’s US IPO? No, But They Sure Could Make Things Difficult

By Daniel Hellberg

Since SEC operates in US executive branch, Congress lacks power to stop IPOs
But by passing new laws, Congress could potentially undermine SHEIN’s IPO
Given current political climate in the US, SHEIN IPO faces real political risks

REPT BATTERO Energy IPO Trading – Needs to Correct by 20-30%, at Least

REPT BATTERO Energy (REPT) raised around US$270m in its Hong Kong IPO.
REPT is a lithium-ion battery manufacturer in China, focusing on R&D, production, and sales of EV/ESS lithium-ion battery products such as battery cells, modules and packs.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

Octillion Energy Holdings Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

Octillion Energy Holdings (OE HK) is looking to raise US$400m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
Octillion Energy Holdings (OE) primarily designs, manufactures and markets tailor-made battery systems for electric vehicles (EVs), and to a lesser extent, electric storage systems (ESS) and battery management systems (BMS).
As per F&S, OE had a 9.6% market share and was ranked the third largest EV battery system provider for passenger battery EVs (BEVs) in China by FY22 shipment units.

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Dec 17

Daily Brief ECM: ECM Weekly (17th Dec 2023) – Toyota and more

In today’s briefing:

ECM Weekly (17th Dec 2023) – Toyota, Denso, Mankind, Axis, Merdeka, DOMS, India Shelter, Inox

ECM Weekly (17th Dec 2023) – Toyota, Denso, Mankind, Axis, Merdeka, DOMS, India Shelter, Inox

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
A few large placements in India, along with Denso Corp (6902 JP) pricing, kept the market ticking this week.
In the IPO space, India saw a flurry of launches, as companies and banker try to cash-in on the market frenzy.

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Dec 15

Daily Brief ECM: Zozo-Owned Yutori IPO This Month and more

In today’s briefing:

Zozo-Owned Yutori IPO This Month
Inox India IPO – Offering Access to a Niche Sector

Zozo-Owned Yutori IPO This Month

By Michael Causton

Zozo may lead in online fashion malls but its customer base, while young, is getting older.
In 2020, it acquired a majority stake in Yutori, a fledgling fashion mall targeting the young, which will now list this month.
Yutori has grown sales to ¥2.47 billion since launching five years ago. As well as Japan, it sees a major opportunity across Asia given Japanese street fashion popularity there.

Inox India IPO – Offering Access to a Niche Sector

INOX India Limited (INOX IN) is looking to raise up to US$175m in its Indian IPO.
Inox India is a manufacturer of cryogenic equipment. As per CRISIL, the firm was the largest Indian exporter of cryogenic tanks in terms of FY23 sales.
In our previous note, we looked at the company’s background. In this note, we talk about the company’s performance and share our quick thoughts on valuation.

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Dec 14

Daily Brief ECM: GoTo: Thoughts on the New Tokopedia/TikTok Partnership and more

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

In today’s briefing:

GoTo: Thoughts on the New Tokopedia/TikTok Partnership
DS Dansuk IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis
India Shelter Finance IPO – Strong Track Record Could Justify a Premium Valuation
Indian Shelter Finance IPO- Forensic Analysis
Pre-IPO HighTide Therapeutics (PHIP Updates) – Some Shareholders Have Chosen to Quit in Advance

GoTo: Thoughts on the New Tokopedia/TikTok Partnership

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT (GOTO IJ) announced on Monday a partnership with TikTok which would combine former’s e-commerce biz Tokopedia with TikTok Shop Indonesia.
TikTok was forced to close its e-commerce services in Indonesia following regulations banning online shopping on social media platforms in September citing protection of smaller merchants and data privacy.
It seems TikTok will certainly be a winner if the deal is approved but surprised at GoTo’s move to retain a minority stake given e-commerce business is nearing profits.

DS Dansuk IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis

By Douglas Kim

DS Dansuk reported solid bookbuilding results. DS Dansuk IPO price has been determined at 100,000 won per share, which is 12.4% higher than high end of the IPO price range.
A total of 1,843 institutional investors participated in this IPO book building. The demand ratio was 342 to 1. DS Dansuk IPO will start trading on 22 December.
Given the strong IPO bookbuilding results, we believe shares of DS Dansuk are likely to trade above the high end of the IPO sensitivity analysis (137,877 won).

India Shelter Finance IPO – Strong Track Record Could Justify a Premium Valuation

By Clarence Chu

India Shelter Finance (0570670D IN) is looking to raise US$144m from its India IPO.
India Shelter Finance (ISF) is a retail-focused HFC targeting the self-employed customer with a focus on first time home loan takers in the low and middle income group.
In this note, we will look at past performance, and share our thoughts on valuation.

Indian Shelter Finance IPO- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

India Shelter Finance (0570670D IN) (ISFC) IPO worth INR 12 bn opens for subscription this week. The issue comprises INR 8 bn fresh issue and INR 4 bn OFS.
ISFC has been generating high growth in AUM and disbursements in the last few years. The company has also improved its NPAs and stability.
However, there are few cautions regarding employee productivity and on the opex side. Also, slippages have increased in H1F24.

Pre-IPO HighTide Therapeutics (PHIP Updates) – Some Shareholders Have Chosen to Quit in Advance

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Diseases with complex mechanisms like NASH are unlikely to be solved by drugs with a single target, but compared with THR-β and GLP-1s, our view on HTD1801’s prospects is negative.
HTD1801 faces high R&D failure risk and challenges in obtaining the final approval for NASH indication. For T2DM indication, the current intense competitive landscape has dimmed its future commercialization prospects.
Several original shareholders have already cashed out in advance, indicating that they are not optimistic about the prospects of HighTide. The valuation premium space after IPO could be lower-than-expected.

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Dec 13

Daily Brief ECM: Denso (6902 JP): The Current Playbook and more

In today’s briefing:

Denso (6902 JP): The Current Playbook
REPT BATTERO IPO Preview and Valuation Analysis: Burning Cash and Rising Debt Ahead of the IPO

Denso (6902 JP): The Current Playbook

By Arun George

Since the US$4.0 billion secondary placement announcement, Denso Corp (6902 JP)’s shares are down 4.3% from the undisturbed price of JPY2,298 per share (28 November).
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Denso’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements.
The offering will likely be priced on 13 December. Investors participating in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.

REPT BATTERO IPO Preview and Valuation Analysis: Burning Cash and Rising Debt Ahead of the IPO

By Andrei Zakharov

REPT BATTERO, a Chinese Li-ion battery manufacturer, announced terms for its IPO in Hong Kong. The initial public offering price is expected to be between HK$18.20 and HK$20.60 per share.
The company plans to raise ~HK$2.1B of net proceeds at HK$19.40/share. REPT BATTERO will begin trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange under the stock code 0666 on December 18.
I have a negative view of the upcoming REPT BATTERO IPO and expect the stock will underperform during the first trading day as a publicly listed company.

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Dec 12

Daily Brief ECM: Rept Battero IPO: Valuation Insights and more

In today’s briefing:

Rept Battero IPO: Valuation Insights
DOMS Industries Ltd IPO- Forensic Analysis
Mankind Pharma Placement – Its Expensive, but at Least It’s High Quality
DOMS Industries IPO – Thoughts on Valuation – Isn’t Cheap, Neither Are Its Peers Cheap
IMotion Automotive Pre-IPO – Refiled PHIP Updates – Lack of Competitive Edge Starting to Show

Rept Battero IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George

REPT BATTERO Energy (1998104D CH), a leading EV battery manufacturer, has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$306 million. Pricing is on 14 December.
We previously discussed the IPO in Rept Battero IPO: The Bull Case and Rept Battero IPO: The Bear Case.
There are no cornerstone investors. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is unattractive. Therefore, we would pass on the IPO.

DOMS Industries Ltd IPO- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

Doms (DOMS IN) IPO opens for subscription soon. The INR 12 bn IPO includes INR 3.5 bn fresh issue and the remaining as offer for sale.
The company is a prominent player in the Indian stationary market and has one of the most diverse product portfolio with a market share of 12% in F23.
DOMS ticks right in majority of the boxes when it comes to operations and B/S health. One must still be cautious regarding dependence on FILA group, and faster depreciating rates.

Mankind Pharma Placement – Its Expensive, but at Least It’s High Quality

A group of shareholders is looking to raise around US$600m via selling a 6.9% stake in Mankind Pharma.
MP is a pharmaceutical company engaged in developing, manufacturing and marketing a range of pharmaceutical formulations across various acute and chronic therapeutic areas, as well as several consumer healthcare products.
We have looked at the IPO and lock-up release earlier. In this note, we talk about the other deal dynamics.

DOMS Industries IPO – Thoughts on Valuation – Isn’t Cheap, Neither Are Its Peers Cheap

Doms (DOMS IN) is looking to raise around US$140m in its India IPO.
DOMS is a leading player and brand in India’s stationery and art products market. It designs, manufactures, and sells a wide range of products, primarily under its flagship brand ‘DOMS’.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier note. In this note, we talk about valuations.

IMotion Automotive Pre-IPO – Refiled PHIP Updates – Lack of Competitive Edge Starting to Show

IMotion Automotive Technology (1812706D CH) is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming HK IPO, after downsizing from an earlier reported float of US$300m.
The company possesses advanced full-stack R&D capabilities including self-developed algorithms and hardware-software co-design capabilities. It provides two AD domain controller product lines, and the self-designed iDC series.
We had covered the company’s performance and PHIP updates in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about its refiled PHIP updates.

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Dec 11

Daily Brief ECM: SHEIN Versus Amazon: Our Online Shopping Adventure In Pursuit Of Ultra-Cheap Holiday Deals and more

In today’s briefing:

SHEIN Versus Amazon: Our Online Shopping Adventure In Pursuit Of Ultra-Cheap Holiday Deals
Merdeka Battery Materials Lockup Expiry – US$1.5bn Lockup Expiry, Some Have Sold Beforehand

SHEIN Versus Amazon: Our Online Shopping Adventure In Pursuit Of Ultra-Cheap Holiday Deals

By Daniel Hellberg

We set out to compare prices & the “retail experience” at AMZN, SHEIN
Selecting comparable items, we looked at landed costs, transit times, returns
SHEIN’s value proposition is obvious; will consumers accept its drawbacks, too?

Merdeka Battery Materials Lockup Expiry – US$1.5bn Lockup Expiry, Some Have Sold Beforehand

Merdeka Battery Materials (MBMA IJ) was listed on 18th Apr 2023, when it raised around US$591m in its Indonesian IPO. Its eight-month lockup will expire on 11th Dec 2023.
MBMA owns one of the world’s largest nickel mines in terms of contained nickel at the Konawe Nickel Mine.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

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Dec 10

Daily Brief ECM: Rept Battero IPO: The Bear Case and more

In today’s briefing:

Rept Battero IPO: The Bear Case
Recap of Our IPO Research in 2023
ECM Weekly (10th Dec 2023) – Toyota, Denso, Rakuten, Evolution, IRCON, REPT, UBTech, Entero

Rept Battero IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

REPT BATTERO Energy (1998104D CH), a leading EV battery manufacturer, has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$306 million. Pricing is on 14 December.
In Rept Battero IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on market share losses, high related party revenue, weak outlook, EV battery weak performance, FCF burn, high impairments and receivable financing.

Recap of Our IPO Research in 2023

By Douglas Kim

In this report, we review our IPO investment research in 2023, including the performance of our calls.
The accuracy rate of our calls on IPOs this year was 76% (16 calls right, 5 calls wrong), slightly below our average accurate rate of 77% from 2017 to 2022.
The average accuracy rate of our calls from 2017 to 2023 is 77%. We made 42 investment calls in 2020, 37 in 2021, 19 in 2022, and 21 in 2023.

ECM Weekly (10th Dec 2023) – Toyota, Denso, Rakuten, Evolution, IRCON, REPT, UBTech, Entero