ECM

In this briefing:

1. Futu Holdings IPO – Given the Team, Execution, and Backers, Might Be Worth a Look at the Low-End
2. China Tobacco Intl (HK) IPO: Proxy For the Chinese Cigarette Consumption
3. New Century Hotel (浙江開元酒店) IPO Review – Higher ADR and RevPAR than Peers but Margins Fall Short
4. CStone Pharma (基石药业) Post-IPO: Strong Debut but Lacks near Term Catalysts
5. Futu Holdings Pre-IPO – FY18 Updates And Quick Thoughts on Valuation

1. Futu Holdings IPO – Given the Team, Execution, and Backers, Might Be Worth a Look at the Low-End

Futu Holdings Ltd (FHL US) plans to raise upto US$130m in its US listing. The deal has been downsized from its earlier indicative size of US$300m and the valuation too has been downsized by almost the same extent to around US$1.2-1.5bn.

In my earlier insights, Futu Holdings Pre-IPO – Great Metrics but in a Commoditised Industry and Futu Holdings Pre-IPO – FY18 Updates And Quick Thoughts on Valuation, I looked at the company’s background and past financial performance.

 In this insight, I’ll run the deal through our IPO framework and comment on valuations. At the low-end the deal might be worth looking into, although free-float might end up being very small owing to US$30m being taken up Tencent which would leave just about US$100m as free-float.

2. China Tobacco Intl (HK) IPO: Proxy For the Chinese Cigarette Consumption

China Tobacco International (Hong Kong), a subsidiary of the China Tobacco International, is seeking a listing in Hong Kong. Per media reports, the company plans to raise USD 100 million. In this insight, we will discuss the following topics: 

• What does China Tobacco International do?
• What is its relationship with China Tobacco?
• How did its different segments perform?
• The industrial backdrop

3. New Century Hotel (浙江開元酒店) IPO Review – Higher ADR and RevPAR than Peers but Margins Fall Short

Zhejiang New Century Hotel Management Group (1158 HK) (NCH) is looking to raise up to US$179m in its upcoming IPO.

NCH is riddled with related party transactions, from the sales of consumer goods, carpets and wine to having 24% of its hotel management revenue come from related parties. There had been a handful of small acquisitions and disposals but it all seemed to be just reshuffling of assets between NCH and the controlling shareholder with no clear strategy. 

Key metrics show that even though NCH is operating at higher ADR and RevPAR compared to peers, it ultimately falls short in terms of EBITDA and net margins. It also has the lowest occupancy rate.

In this insight, we will focus on corporate governance issues, peer metric comparison, and relative valuation with listed hotel operators. 

4. CStone Pharma (基石药业) Post-IPO: Strong Debut but Lacks near Term Catalysts

CStone Pharma’s IPO was priced at HKD 12.00/share and started trading today. In this insight, we summarize the allocation, the use of proceeds and recap our view on our valuation. We also look at past few biotech listings and discuss our thoughts on the market sentiments. We are of the view that despite a strong debut performance, CStone lacks near term catalysts that can continue to drive performance after the first day. 

Our Previous Coverage of CStone

• CStone Pharma (基石药业) IPO: Strong Assembly and Backing (Part 1)
• CStone Pharma (基石药业) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation (Part 2)

5. Futu Holdings Pre-IPO – FY18 Updates And Quick Thoughts on Valuation

Futu Holdings Ltd (FHL US) plans to raise around US$300m in its US IPO. The company is backed by Tencent Holdings (700 HK) , Matrix Partners and Sequoia.

In my earlier insight, Futu Holdings Pre-IPO – Great Metrics but in a Commoditised Industry, I looked at the company’s background and past financial performance along with some of the other firms that are competing in the same space. 

This insight covers the positive and negative takeaways from the FY18 updated filing and also includes our thoughts on valuation.

In this briefing:

1. China Tobacco Intl (HK) IPO: Proxy For the Chinese Cigarette Consumption
2. New Century Hotel (浙江開元酒店) IPO Review – Higher ADR and RevPAR than Peers but Margins Fall Short
3. CStone Pharma (基石药业) Post-IPO: Strong Debut but Lacks near Term Catalysts
4. Futu Holdings Pre-IPO – FY18 Updates And Quick Thoughts on Valuation
5. Yincheng Intl (银城国际) IPO Quick Note: A Highly Levered Nanjing Developer Bet

1. China Tobacco Intl (HK) IPO: Proxy For the Chinese Cigarette Consumption

China Tobacco International (Hong Kong), a subsidiary of the China Tobacco International, is seeking a listing in Hong Kong. Per media reports, the company plans to raise USD 100 million. In this insight, we will discuss the following topics: 

• What does China Tobacco International do?
• What is its relationship with China Tobacco?
• How did its different segments perform?
• The industrial backdrop

2. New Century Hotel (浙江開元酒店) IPO Review – Higher ADR and RevPAR than Peers but Margins Fall Short

Zhejiang New Century Hotel Management Group (1158 HK) (NCH) is looking to raise up to US$179m in its upcoming IPO.

NCH is riddled with related party transactions, from the sales of consumer goods, carpets and wine to having 24% of its hotel management revenue come from related parties. There had been a handful of small acquisitions and disposals but it all seemed to be just reshuffling of assets between NCH and the controlling shareholder with no clear strategy. 

Key metrics show that even though NCH is operating at higher ADR and RevPAR compared to peers, it ultimately falls short in terms of EBITDA and net margins. It also has the lowest occupancy rate.

In this insight, we will focus on corporate governance issues, peer metric comparison, and relative valuation with listed hotel operators. 

3. CStone Pharma (基石药业) Post-IPO: Strong Debut but Lacks near Term Catalysts

CStone Pharma’s IPO was priced at HKD 12.00/share and started trading today. In this insight, we summarize the allocation, the use of proceeds and recap our view on our valuation. We also look at past few biotech listings and discuss our thoughts on the market sentiments. We are of the view that despite a strong debut performance, CStone lacks near term catalysts that can continue to drive performance after the first day. 

Our Previous Coverage of CStone

• CStone Pharma (基石药业) IPO: Strong Assembly and Backing (Part 1)
• CStone Pharma (基石药业) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation (Part 2)

4. Futu Holdings Pre-IPO – FY18 Updates And Quick Thoughts on Valuation

Futu Holdings Ltd (FHL US) plans to raise around US$300m in its US IPO. The company is backed by Tencent Holdings (700 HK) , Matrix Partners and Sequoia.

In my earlier insight, Futu Holdings Pre-IPO – Great Metrics but in a Commoditised Industry, I looked at the company’s background and past financial performance along with some of the other firms that are competing in the same space. 

This insight covers the positive and negative takeaways from the FY18 updated filing and also includes our thoughts on valuation.

5. Yincheng Intl (银城国际) IPO Quick Note: A Highly Levered Nanjing Developer Bet

Yincheng International, a China Yangtze delta focused property developer, is raising up to USD 110 million to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. In this note, we will cover the following topics:

• The company’s property portfolio
• Financial performance that concerns us
• Shareholders and use of proceeds
• Our view on the deal

In this briefing:

1. New Century Hotel (浙江開元酒店) IPO Review – Higher ADR and RevPAR than Peers but Margins Fall Short
2. CStone Pharma (基石药业) Post-IPO: Strong Debut but Lacks near Term Catalysts
3. Futu Holdings Pre-IPO – FY18 Updates And Quick Thoughts on Valuation
4. Yincheng Intl (银城国际) IPO Quick Note: A Highly Levered Nanjing Developer Bet
5. ECM Weekly (23 February 2019) – Futu, CStone, Dexin, New Century, AB InBev, MabPharma

1. New Century Hotel (浙江開元酒店) IPO Review – Higher ADR and RevPAR than Peers but Margins Fall Short

Zhejiang New Century Hotel Management Group (1158 HK) (NCH) is looking to raise up to US$179m in its upcoming IPO.

NCH is riddled with related party transactions, from the sales of consumer goods, carpets and wine to having 24% of its hotel management revenue come from related parties. There had been a handful of small acquisitions and disposals but it all seemed to be just reshuffling of assets between NCH and the controlling shareholder with no clear strategy. 

Key metrics show that even though NCH is operating at higher ADR and RevPAR compared to peers, it ultimately falls short in terms of EBITDA and net margins. It also has the lowest occupancy rate.

In this insight, we will focus on corporate governance issues, peer metric comparison, and relative valuation with listed hotel operators. 

2. CStone Pharma (基石药业) Post-IPO: Strong Debut but Lacks near Term Catalysts

CStone Pharma’s IPO was priced at HKD 12.00/share and started trading today. In this insight, we summarize the allocation, the use of proceeds and recap our view on our valuation. We also look at past few biotech listings and discuss our thoughts on the market sentiments. We are of the view that despite a strong debut performance, CStone lacks near term catalysts that can continue to drive performance after the first day. 

Our Previous Coverage of CStone

• CStone Pharma (基石药业) IPO: Strong Assembly and Backing (Part 1)
• CStone Pharma (基石药业) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation (Part 2)

3. Futu Holdings Pre-IPO – FY18 Updates And Quick Thoughts on Valuation

Futu Holdings Ltd (FHL US) plans to raise around US$300m in its US IPO. The company is backed by Tencent Holdings (700 HK) , Matrix Partners and Sequoia.

In my earlier insight, Futu Holdings Pre-IPO – Great Metrics but in a Commoditised Industry, I looked at the company’s background and past financial performance along with some of the other firms that are competing in the same space. 

This insight covers the positive and negative takeaways from the FY18 updated filing and also includes our thoughts on valuation.

4. Yincheng Intl (银城国际) IPO Quick Note: A Highly Levered Nanjing Developer Bet

Yincheng International, a China Yangtze delta focused property developer, is raising up to USD 110 million to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. In this note, we will cover the following topics:

• The company’s property portfolio
• Financial performance that concerns us
• Shareholders and use of proceeds
• Our view on the deal

5. ECM Weekly (23 February 2019) – Futu, CStone, Dexin, New Century, AB InBev, MabPharma

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by Smartkarma Insight Providers recently, along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Accuracy Rate:

Our overall accuracy rate is 72.1% for IPOs and 63.7% for Placements 

(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)

New IPO filings

• Jinxin Fertility Group (US$600m, Hong Kong)

Below is a snippet of our IPO tool showing upcoming events for the next week. The IPO tool is designed to provide readers with timely information on all IPO related events (Book open/closing, listing, initiation, lock-up expiry, etc) for all the deals that we have worked on. You can access the tool here or through the tools menu.

News on Upcoming IPOs

• Fund Companies Ask Hong Kong to Relax IPO Investment Rules
• Chinese Tech Giants Seek Further IPO Rule Changes in Hong Kong
• Sembcorp could delay India energy IPO due to market conditions
• PNB Metlife IPO likely next fiscal

Smartkarma Community’s this week Analysis on Upcoming IPO

• New Century Hotel Mgmt IPO Preview: Two-Speed Businesses
• New Century Hotel (浙江開元酒店) Pre-IPO – Improved Profitability Not Driven by Underlying Operations
• Ab InBev Asia Pre-IPO – Quick Note – More like CR Beer Rather than Tsingtao
• MabPharma (迈博医药) IPO: Assembled for a Trade?
• Hyundai Autoever IPO Preview
• Hyundai Autoever IPO Pricing: Likely to Be a Dull Event Given No Growth Story & Glovis Merger
• HLX02: Innovation Could Overtake

In this briefing:

1. CStone Pharma (基石药业) Post-IPO: Strong Debut but Lacks near Term Catalysts
2. Futu Holdings Pre-IPO – FY18 Updates And Quick Thoughts on Valuation
3. Yincheng Intl (银城国际) IPO Quick Note: A Highly Levered Nanjing Developer Bet
4. ECM Weekly (23 February 2019) – Futu, CStone, Dexin, New Century, AB InBev, MabPharma
5. MabPharma (迈博医药) IPO: Assembled for a Trade?

1. CStone Pharma (基石药业) Post-IPO: Strong Debut but Lacks near Term Catalysts

CStone Pharma’s IPO was priced at HKD 12.00/share and started trading today. In this insight, we summarize the allocation, the use of proceeds and recap our view on our valuation. We also look at past few biotech listings and discuss our thoughts on the market sentiments. We are of the view that despite a strong debut performance, CStone lacks near term catalysts that can continue to drive performance after the first day. 

Our Previous Coverage of CStone

• CStone Pharma (基石药业) IPO: Strong Assembly and Backing (Part 1)
• CStone Pharma (基石药业) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation (Part 2)

2. Futu Holdings Pre-IPO – FY18 Updates And Quick Thoughts on Valuation

Futu Holdings Ltd (FHL US) plans to raise around US$300m in its US IPO. The company is backed by Tencent Holdings (700 HK) , Matrix Partners and Sequoia.

In my earlier insight, Futu Holdings Pre-IPO – Great Metrics but in a Commoditised Industry, I looked at the company’s background and past financial performance along with some of the other firms that are competing in the same space. 

This insight covers the positive and negative takeaways from the FY18 updated filing and also includes our thoughts on valuation.

3. Yincheng Intl (银城国际) IPO Quick Note: A Highly Levered Nanjing Developer Bet

Yincheng International, a China Yangtze delta focused property developer, is raising up to USD 110 million to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. In this note, we will cover the following topics:

• The company’s property portfolio
• Financial performance that concerns us
• Shareholders and use of proceeds
• Our view on the deal

4. ECM Weekly (23 February 2019) – Futu, CStone, Dexin, New Century, AB InBev, MabPharma

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by Smartkarma Insight Providers recently, along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Accuracy Rate:

Our overall accuracy rate is 72.1% for IPOs and 63.7% for Placements 

(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)

New IPO filings

• Jinxin Fertility Group (US$600m, Hong Kong)

Below is a snippet of our IPO tool showing upcoming events for the next week. The IPO tool is designed to provide readers with timely information on all IPO related events (Book open/closing, listing, initiation, lock-up expiry, etc) for all the deals that we have worked on. You can access the tool here or through the tools menu.

News on Upcoming IPOs

• Fund Companies Ask Hong Kong to Relax IPO Investment Rules
• Chinese Tech Giants Seek Further IPO Rule Changes in Hong Kong
• Sembcorp could delay India energy IPO due to market conditions
• PNB Metlife IPO likely next fiscal

Smartkarma Community’s this week Analysis on Upcoming IPO

• New Century Hotel Mgmt IPO Preview: Two-Speed Businesses
• New Century Hotel (浙江開元酒店) Pre-IPO – Improved Profitability Not Driven by Underlying Operations
• Ab InBev Asia Pre-IPO – Quick Note – More like CR Beer Rather than Tsingtao
• MabPharma (迈博医药) IPO: Assembled for a Trade?
• Hyundai Autoever IPO Preview
• Hyundai Autoever IPO Pricing: Likely to Be a Dull Event Given No Growth Story & Glovis Merger
• HLX02: Innovation Could Overtake

5. MabPharma (迈博医药) IPO: Assembled for a Trade?

MabPharma, backed by Chinese private equity investor CDH, is seeking to list in Hong Kong. In this insight, we will discuss the following topics:

• The company’s background
• Details of pipeline drug candidates, the potential market of these products and the competition
• Shareholders and investors
• Questions for management meetings
• Summary of our likes and concerns

We will leave the discussion of valuation for our next insight.

• CStone Pharma (基石药业) IPO: Strong Assembly and Backing (Part 1)

• Viva Biotech (维亚生物) IPO: When CRO Becomes Early Stage Biotech Investor

• Hansoh Pharma (翰森制药) IPO: Takeaways from Recent 4+7 City Centralized Tender Results

• Hansoh Pharma (翰森制药) IPO: A Leading Generic Player with Regulatory Overhang (Part 1)
• WuXi Apptec (药明康德) IPO: This A+H Listing Will Be Different

• Frontage Holding (方达控股) IPO: More Disclosure Needed to Understand Moat and Growth Prospect
• Ascentage Pharma (亚盛医药) IPO: Too Early for an IPO
• Junshi Bioscience (君实医药) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation (Part 2)
• Junshi Bioscience (君实医药) IPO: Early in Application but Behind in Key Indications (Part 1)
• CanSino Biologics (康希诺) IPO: Promising Pre-Clinical Results but Vaccine Scandal Weighs (Part 1)

• AOBiome Therapeutics IPO: Hope for Natural Therapeutic Treatment
• Stealth Biotherapeutics IPO: Cure the Symptoms but Not the Cause (Part 1)
• Innovent Biologics (信达生物) IPO: Pricing the PD-1 and Biosimilars Competition (Part 2)
• Innovent Biologics (信达生物) IPO: A Major PD-1 MAb Competitor Might Have Just Emerged (Part 1)
• MicuRx Pharma (盟科医药) IPO: Betting on Single Drug in the Not so Attractive Antibiotic Segment
• Hua Medicine (华领医药) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation
• Hua Medicine (华领医药) IPO: Reviving Roche’s Failed Attempt?
• BeiGene (百济神州) IPO: Dual-Listing with Upside Capped in the Near Term
• Ascletis Pharma (歌礼制药) IPO: Valuation Not Justified by Ganovo and Ravidasvir NPV (Part 3)
• Ascletis Pharma (歌礼制药) IPO: Three Valuation Risk Factors (Part 2)
• Ascletis Pharma (歌礼制药) IPO: Emerging Player in the Crowded HCV Drug Market
• China Isotope & Radiation IPO: Oligopoly, Visible Growth and High Barrier to Entry
• Zai Lab IPO: Thoughts on Valuation, Risks and Upsides (Part 2)
• Zai Lab IPO: Experienced Team, Promising In-Licensing Drug Pipeline (Part 1)

In this briefing:

1. Futu Holdings Pre-IPO – FY18 Updates And Quick Thoughts on Valuation
2. Yincheng Intl (银城国际) IPO Quick Note: A Highly Levered Nanjing Developer Bet
3. ECM Weekly (23 February 2019) – Futu, CStone, Dexin, New Century, AB InBev, MabPharma
4. MabPharma (迈博医药) IPO: Assembled for a Trade?
5. New Century Hotel Mgmt IPO Preview: Two-Speed Businesses

1. Futu Holdings Pre-IPO – FY18 Updates And Quick Thoughts on Valuation

Futu Holdings Ltd (FHL US) plans to raise around US$300m in its US IPO. The company is backed by Tencent Holdings (700 HK) , Matrix Partners and Sequoia.

In my earlier insight, Futu Holdings Pre-IPO – Great Metrics but in a Commoditised Industry, I looked at the company’s background and past financial performance along with some of the other firms that are competing in the same space. 

This insight covers the positive and negative takeaways from the FY18 updated filing and also includes our thoughts on valuation.

2. Yincheng Intl (银城国际) IPO Quick Note: A Highly Levered Nanjing Developer Bet

Yincheng International, a China Yangtze delta focused property developer, is raising up to USD 110 million to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. In this note, we will cover the following topics:

• The company’s property portfolio
• Financial performance that concerns us
• Shareholders and use of proceeds
• Our view on the deal

3. ECM Weekly (23 February 2019) – Futu, CStone, Dexin, New Century, AB InBev, MabPharma

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by Smartkarma Insight Providers recently, along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Accuracy Rate:

Our overall accuracy rate is 72.1% for IPOs and 63.7% for Placements 

(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)

New IPO filings

• Jinxin Fertility Group (US$600m, Hong Kong)

Below is a snippet of our IPO tool showing upcoming events for the next week. The IPO tool is designed to provide readers with timely information on all IPO related events (Book open/closing, listing, initiation, lock-up expiry, etc) for all the deals that we have worked on. You can access the tool here or through the tools menu.

News on Upcoming IPOs

• Fund Companies Ask Hong Kong to Relax IPO Investment Rules
• Chinese Tech Giants Seek Further IPO Rule Changes in Hong Kong
• Sembcorp could delay India energy IPO due to market conditions
• PNB Metlife IPO likely next fiscal

Smartkarma Community’s this week Analysis on Upcoming IPO

• New Century Hotel Mgmt IPO Preview: Two-Speed Businesses
• New Century Hotel (浙江開元酒店) Pre-IPO – Improved Profitability Not Driven by Underlying Operations
• Ab InBev Asia Pre-IPO – Quick Note – More like CR Beer Rather than Tsingtao
• MabPharma (迈博医药) IPO: Assembled for a Trade?
• Hyundai Autoever IPO Preview
• Hyundai Autoever IPO Pricing: Likely to Be a Dull Event Given No Growth Story & Glovis Merger
• HLX02: Innovation Could Overtake

4. MabPharma (迈博医药) IPO: Assembled for a Trade?

MabPharma, backed by Chinese private equity investor CDH, is seeking to list in Hong Kong. In this insight, we will discuss the following topics:

• The company’s background
• Details of pipeline drug candidates, the potential market of these products and the competition
• Shareholders and investors
• Questions for management meetings
• Summary of our likes and concerns

We will leave the discussion of valuation for our next insight.

• CStone Pharma (基石药业) IPO: Strong Assembly and Backing (Part 1)

• Viva Biotech (维亚生物) IPO: When CRO Becomes Early Stage Biotech Investor

• Hansoh Pharma (翰森制药) IPO: Takeaways from Recent 4+7 City Centralized Tender Results

• Hansoh Pharma (翰森制药) IPO: A Leading Generic Player with Regulatory Overhang (Part 1)
• WuXi Apptec (药明康德) IPO: This A+H Listing Will Be Different

• Frontage Holding (方达控股) IPO: More Disclosure Needed to Understand Moat and Growth Prospect
• Ascentage Pharma (亚盛医药) IPO: Too Early for an IPO
• Junshi Bioscience (君实医药) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation (Part 2)
• Junshi Bioscience (君实医药) IPO: Early in Application but Behind in Key Indications (Part 1)
• CanSino Biologics (康希诺) IPO: Promising Pre-Clinical Results but Vaccine Scandal Weighs (Part 1)

• AOBiome Therapeutics IPO: Hope for Natural Therapeutic Treatment
• Stealth Biotherapeutics IPO: Cure the Symptoms but Not the Cause (Part 1)
• Innovent Biologics (信达生物) IPO: Pricing the PD-1 and Biosimilars Competition (Part 2)
• Innovent Biologics (信达生物) IPO: A Major PD-1 MAb Competitor Might Have Just Emerged (Part 1)
• MicuRx Pharma (盟科医药) IPO: Betting on Single Drug in the Not so Attractive Antibiotic Segment
• Hua Medicine (华领医药) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation
• Hua Medicine (华领医药) IPO: Reviving Roche’s Failed Attempt?
• BeiGene (百济神州) IPO: Dual-Listing with Upside Capped in the Near Term
• Ascletis Pharma (歌礼制药) IPO: Valuation Not Justified by Ganovo and Ravidasvir NPV (Part 3)
• Ascletis Pharma (歌礼制药) IPO: Three Valuation Risk Factors (Part 2)
• Ascletis Pharma (歌礼制药) IPO: Emerging Player in the Crowded HCV Drug Market
• China Isotope & Radiation IPO: Oligopoly, Visible Growth and High Barrier to Entry
• Zai Lab IPO: Thoughts on Valuation, Risks and Upsides (Part 2)
• Zai Lab IPO: Experienced Team, Promising In-Licensing Drug Pipeline (Part 1)

5. New Century Hotel Mgmt IPO Preview: Two-Speed Businesses

Zhejiang New Century Hotel Management Group (ZHEKAIH HK)  is a leading hotel group in China engaged in the operation and management of mid-scale and upscale hotel chains. New Century has started pre-marketing for a Hong Kong IPO to raise up to $200 million, according to press reports.

In this briefing:

1. Yincheng Intl (银城国际) IPO Quick Note: A Highly Levered Nanjing Developer Bet
2. ECM Weekly (23 February 2019) – Futu, CStone, Dexin, New Century, AB InBev, MabPharma
3. MabPharma (迈博医药) IPO: Assembled for a Trade?
4. New Century Hotel Mgmt IPO Preview: Two-Speed Businesses
5. A Trading Strategy for EcoproBM Post IPO

1. Yincheng Intl (银城国际) IPO Quick Note: A Highly Levered Nanjing Developer Bet

Yincheng International, a China Yangtze delta focused property developer, is raising up to USD 110 million to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. In this note, we will cover the following topics:

• The company’s property portfolio
• Financial performance that concerns us
• Shareholders and use of proceeds
• Our view on the deal

2. ECM Weekly (23 February 2019) – Futu, CStone, Dexin, New Century, AB InBev, MabPharma

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by Smartkarma Insight Providers recently, along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Accuracy Rate:

Our overall accuracy rate is 72.1% for IPOs and 63.7% for Placements 

(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)

New IPO filings

• Jinxin Fertility Group (US$600m, Hong Kong)

Below is a snippet of our IPO tool showing upcoming events for the next week. The IPO tool is designed to provide readers with timely information on all IPO related events (Book open/closing, listing, initiation, lock-up expiry, etc) for all the deals that we have worked on. You can access the tool here or through the tools menu.

News on Upcoming IPOs

• Fund Companies Ask Hong Kong to Relax IPO Investment Rules
• Chinese Tech Giants Seek Further IPO Rule Changes in Hong Kong
• Sembcorp could delay India energy IPO due to market conditions
• PNB Metlife IPO likely next fiscal

Smartkarma Community’s this week Analysis on Upcoming IPO

• New Century Hotel Mgmt IPO Preview: Two-Speed Businesses
• New Century Hotel (浙江開元酒店) Pre-IPO – Improved Profitability Not Driven by Underlying Operations
• Ab InBev Asia Pre-IPO – Quick Note – More like CR Beer Rather than Tsingtao
• MabPharma (迈博医药) IPO: Assembled for a Trade?
• Hyundai Autoever IPO Preview
• Hyundai Autoever IPO Pricing: Likely to Be a Dull Event Given No Growth Story & Glovis Merger
• HLX02: Innovation Could Overtake

3. MabPharma (迈博医药) IPO: Assembled for a Trade?

MabPharma, backed by Chinese private equity investor CDH, is seeking to list in Hong Kong. In this insight, we will discuss the following topics:

• The company’s background
• Details of pipeline drug candidates, the potential market of these products and the competition
• Shareholders and investors
• Questions for management meetings
• Summary of our likes and concerns

We will leave the discussion of valuation for our next insight.

• CStone Pharma (基石药业) IPO: Strong Assembly and Backing (Part 1)

• Viva Biotech (维亚生物) IPO: When CRO Becomes Early Stage Biotech Investor

• Hansoh Pharma (翰森制药) IPO: Takeaways from Recent 4+7 City Centralized Tender Results

• Hansoh Pharma (翰森制药) IPO: A Leading Generic Player with Regulatory Overhang (Part 1)
• WuXi Apptec (药明康德) IPO: This A+H Listing Will Be Different

• Frontage Holding (方达控股) IPO: More Disclosure Needed to Understand Moat and Growth Prospect
• Ascentage Pharma (亚盛医药) IPO: Too Early for an IPO
• Junshi Bioscience (君实医药) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation (Part 2)
• Junshi Bioscience (君实医药) IPO: Early in Application but Behind in Key Indications (Part 1)
• CanSino Biologics (康希诺) IPO: Promising Pre-Clinical Results but Vaccine Scandal Weighs (Part 1)

• AOBiome Therapeutics IPO: Hope for Natural Therapeutic Treatment
• Stealth Biotherapeutics IPO: Cure the Symptoms but Not the Cause (Part 1)
• Innovent Biologics (信达生物) IPO: Pricing the PD-1 and Biosimilars Competition (Part 2)
• Innovent Biologics (信达生物) IPO: A Major PD-1 MAb Competitor Might Have Just Emerged (Part 1)
• MicuRx Pharma (盟科医药) IPO: Betting on Single Drug in the Not so Attractive Antibiotic Segment
• Hua Medicine (华领医药) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation
• Hua Medicine (华领医药) IPO: Reviving Roche’s Failed Attempt?
• BeiGene (百济神州) IPO: Dual-Listing with Upside Capped in the Near Term
• Ascletis Pharma (歌礼制药) IPO: Valuation Not Justified by Ganovo and Ravidasvir NPV (Part 3)
• Ascletis Pharma (歌礼制药) IPO: Three Valuation Risk Factors (Part 2)
• Ascletis Pharma (歌礼制药) IPO: Emerging Player in the Crowded HCV Drug Market
• China Isotope & Radiation IPO: Oligopoly, Visible Growth and High Barrier to Entry
• Zai Lab IPO: Thoughts on Valuation, Risks and Upsides (Part 2)
• Zai Lab IPO: Experienced Team, Promising In-Licensing Drug Pipeline (Part 1)

4. New Century Hotel Mgmt IPO Preview: Two-Speed Businesses

Zhejiang New Century Hotel Management Group (ZHEKAIH HK)  is a leading hotel group in China engaged in the operation and management of mid-scale and upscale hotel chains. New Century has started pre-marketing for a Hong Kong IPO to raise up to $200 million, according to press reports.

5. A Trading Strategy for EcoproBM Post IPO

• In this report, we provide a trading strategy for Ecopro BM Co Ltd (247540 KS) IPO, which is expected to start trading on March 5th. The IPO price has been determined at 48,000 won, which is 19% higher than the mid-point of the original IPO price range of 37,500 won to 42,900 won. The institutional investors’ demand for the Ecopro BM IPO was extremely strong at 988 to 1. 
• In our previous report Ecopro BM IPO: Valuation Analysis, we proposed the base case to high end of the company’s value to be between 56,000 won and 67,800 won. Given the enormous institutional demand for this IPO, it appears that our base case valuation (56,000 won), which is 17% higher than the IPO price, may be too conservative. 
• A more likely scenario now is that the stock reaches about 65,000 won to 70,000 won in the first few hours of trading on the first day, overshooting its intrinsic value and sells off a bit for a few days/weeks, enters a consolidation phase and then resumes its higher share price again. 

In this briefing:

1. Ab InBev Asia Pre-IPO – Quick Note – More like CR Beer Rather than Tsingtao
2. Hyundai Autoever IPO Preview
3. Hyundai Autoever IPO Pricing: Likely to Be a Dull Event Given No Growth Story & Glovis Merger
4. HLX02: Innovation Could Overtake
5. Aruhi Placement – Bigger than the IPO but Good Track Record and Price Performance Should Help

1. Ab InBev Asia Pre-IPO – Quick Note – More like CR Beer Rather than Tsingtao

Anheuser Busch Inbev Sa/Nv (ABI BB) is looking to list its Asian operations in order to lighten its debt burden. The listing will probably be in Hong Kong and the company could raise around US$5bn at a valuation of around US$70bn.

In my earlier insight, Ab InBev Asia Pre-IPO – A Brief History of the Asia Pacific Operations – Eeking Out Growth in China, I looked at how the Asian operations of ABI have shaped up over the past few years.  

In this insight, I’ll do a quick comparison of the past financial performance of China Resources Beer Holdin (291 HK) and Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd H (168 HK).

2. Hyundai Autoever IPO Preview

• Hyundai Autoever is ready to complete its IPO in March 2019. Established in 2000, Hyundai Autoever is the IT service arm of the Hyundai Motor Group. Hyundai Autoever is expected to play a key role in the Hyundai Motor Group’s push to become a leading global player of autonomous driving in the coming decade. 
• The IPO price range is between 40,000 won and 44,000 won. The IPO base deal size is from $125 million to $138 million. According to the bankers’ valuation, the expected market cap is expected to range from 840 billion won to 924 billion won. 
• The bankers used four companies including Samsung SDS, POSCO ICT, Lotte Data Comm, and Shinsegae I&C to value Hyundai Autoever. Using the annualized net profit of the comps in 2018, the bankers derived an average P/E multiple of 24x for the peers. Then the bankers took the annualized net profit of Hyundai Autoever in 2018 (52.2 billion won) and applied the peers average P/E multiple of 24x to derive the implied market cap of 1.25 trillion won. After applying additional IPO discount of 26.4% – 33.1%, the bankers derived the IPO price range of 40,000 to 44,000 won. 

3. Hyundai Autoever IPO Pricing: Likely to Be a Dull Event Given No Growth Story & Glovis Merger

• Hyundai Autoever offers a total 3,510,000 shares. Split is 9.9% primary and 90.1% secondary. Shares are preliminarily priced at ₩40,000~44,000. This puts the company value at ₩840~924bil. Bookbuilding will be Mar 13~14.
• Valuation is a bit aggressive. It is being heard that local institutions are not particularly excited about this IPO mainly because of Autoever’s 90% captive business. That is, growth story isn’t looking fancy. At a 17x PER on Autoever’s FY19 expected earnings, it is sitting in the middle of the indicative price band. There shouldn’t be much room to play around.
• The major shareholder was expected to sell as much as 50% of their shares through secondary distribution. Actual offering size is much smaller. This sparks the speculation that Autoever will soon be merged with Glovis. Much smaller offering size may be for facilitating the merger. It can pave a less controversial path for another merger attempt with Mobis.
• But this speculation can render this IPO meaningless though. I expect this IPO will be a dull event. I wouldn’t avoid it completely though. Stable income stream and connected car are are still something worthy. I’d buy them at the right price. Low end should be the right price.

4. HLX02: Innovation Could Overtake

The oncology treatment landscape in China is evolving rapidly as the government has prioritized access to innovative drugs to meet this significant unmet need. In particular, investors considering the Shanghai Henlius Biotech (1566213D HK) listing should be aware of the emergence of a drug that potentially is superior to Roche Holding AG (ROG SW)‘s Herceptin (and Shanghai Henlius’ HLX02) for the treatment of patients with HER2-positive breast cancer (and ultimately HER2-positive gastric cancer). While there should be good demand for cheaper alternatives to Herceptin, the availability of a superior alternative potentially shortens the lifecycle of Herceptin biosimilars. 

China has only recently “modernized” its drug approval and reimbursement, so there is little precedent to rely upon to estimate the speed and magnitude of changes in the market. As brokers rollout forecasts for the company and HLX02, investors should ask if the numbers somehow reflect this risk.

We do not have a view of the offering, but tag this Insight as Bearish because we are highlighting a potential risk.

5. Aruhi Placement – Bigger than the IPO but Good Track Record and Price Performance Should Help

Carlyle, along with SBI, plans to sell the rest of its stake in Aruhi Corp (7198 JP) for around US$280m.

Aruhi listed in Dec 2017, when Carlyle sold 18m shares. This is the second and final tranche of shares owned by Carlyle.  The total sale accounts for 41% of the company’s outstanding shares making it a relatively large deal to digest. 

However, the shares have done well since listing and the stock scores well on our framework. Valuations appear reasonable, if the company is able to achieve its mid-term targets.

In this briefing:

1. ECM Weekly (23 February 2019) – Futu, CStone, Dexin, New Century, AB InBev, MabPharma
2. MabPharma (迈博医药) IPO: Assembled for a Trade?
3. New Century Hotel Mgmt IPO Preview: Two-Speed Businesses
4. A Trading Strategy for EcoproBM Post IPO
5. New Century Hotel (浙江開元酒店) Pre-IPO – Improved Profitability Not Driven by Underlying Operations

1. ECM Weekly (23 February 2019) – Futu, CStone, Dexin, New Century, AB InBev, MabPharma

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by Smartkarma Insight Providers recently, along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Accuracy Rate:

Our overall accuracy rate is 72.1% for IPOs and 63.7% for Placements 

(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)

New IPO filings

• Jinxin Fertility Group (US$600m, Hong Kong)

Below is a snippet of our IPO tool showing upcoming events for the next week. The IPO tool is designed to provide readers with timely information on all IPO related events (Book open/closing, listing, initiation, lock-up expiry, etc) for all the deals that we have worked on. You can access the tool here or through the tools menu.

News on Upcoming IPOs

• Fund Companies Ask Hong Kong to Relax IPO Investment Rules
• Chinese Tech Giants Seek Further IPO Rule Changes in Hong Kong
• Sembcorp could delay India energy IPO due to market conditions
• PNB Metlife IPO likely next fiscal

Smartkarma Community’s this week Analysis on Upcoming IPO

• New Century Hotel Mgmt IPO Preview: Two-Speed Businesses
• New Century Hotel (浙江開元酒店) Pre-IPO – Improved Profitability Not Driven by Underlying Operations
• Ab InBev Asia Pre-IPO – Quick Note – More like CR Beer Rather than Tsingtao
• MabPharma (迈博医药) IPO: Assembled for a Trade?
• Hyundai Autoever IPO Preview
• Hyundai Autoever IPO Pricing: Likely to Be a Dull Event Given No Growth Story & Glovis Merger
• HLX02: Innovation Could Overtake

2. MabPharma (迈博医药) IPO: Assembled for a Trade?

MabPharma, backed by Chinese private equity investor CDH, is seeking to list in Hong Kong. In this insight, we will discuss the following topics:

• The company’s background
• Details of pipeline drug candidates, the potential market of these products and the competition
• Shareholders and investors
• Questions for management meetings
• Summary of our likes and concerns

We will leave the discussion of valuation for our next insight.

• CStone Pharma (基石药业) IPO: Strong Assembly and Backing (Part 1)

• Viva Biotech (维亚生物) IPO: When CRO Becomes Early Stage Biotech Investor

• Hansoh Pharma (翰森制药) IPO: Takeaways from Recent 4+7 City Centralized Tender Results

• Hansoh Pharma (翰森制药) IPO: A Leading Generic Player with Regulatory Overhang (Part 1)
• WuXi Apptec (药明康德) IPO: This A+H Listing Will Be Different

• Frontage Holding (方达控股) IPO: More Disclosure Needed to Understand Moat and Growth Prospect
• Ascentage Pharma (亚盛医药) IPO: Too Early for an IPO
• Junshi Bioscience (君实医药) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation (Part 2)
• Junshi Bioscience (君实医药) IPO: Early in Application but Behind in Key Indications (Part 1)
• CanSino Biologics (康希诺) IPO: Promising Pre-Clinical Results but Vaccine Scandal Weighs (Part 1)

• AOBiome Therapeutics IPO: Hope for Natural Therapeutic Treatment
• Stealth Biotherapeutics IPO: Cure the Symptoms but Not the Cause (Part 1)
• Innovent Biologics (信达生物) IPO: Pricing the PD-1 and Biosimilars Competition (Part 2)
• Innovent Biologics (信达生物) IPO: A Major PD-1 MAb Competitor Might Have Just Emerged (Part 1)
• MicuRx Pharma (盟科医药) IPO: Betting on Single Drug in the Not so Attractive Antibiotic Segment
• Hua Medicine (华领医药) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation
• Hua Medicine (华领医药) IPO: Reviving Roche’s Failed Attempt?
• BeiGene (百济神州) IPO: Dual-Listing with Upside Capped in the Near Term
• Ascletis Pharma (歌礼制药) IPO: Valuation Not Justified by Ganovo and Ravidasvir NPV (Part 3)
• Ascletis Pharma (歌礼制药) IPO: Three Valuation Risk Factors (Part 2)
• Ascletis Pharma (歌礼制药) IPO: Emerging Player in the Crowded HCV Drug Market
• China Isotope & Radiation IPO: Oligopoly, Visible Growth and High Barrier to Entry
• Zai Lab IPO: Thoughts on Valuation, Risks and Upsides (Part 2)
• Zai Lab IPO: Experienced Team, Promising In-Licensing Drug Pipeline (Part 1)

3. New Century Hotel Mgmt IPO Preview: Two-Speed Businesses

Zhejiang New Century Hotel Management Group (ZHEKAIH HK)  is a leading hotel group in China engaged in the operation and management of mid-scale and upscale hotel chains. New Century has started pre-marketing for a Hong Kong IPO to raise up to $200 million, according to press reports.

4. A Trading Strategy for EcoproBM Post IPO

• In this report, we provide a trading strategy for Ecopro BM Co Ltd (247540 KS) IPO, which is expected to start trading on March 5th. The IPO price has been determined at 48,000 won, which is 19% higher than the mid-point of the original IPO price range of 37,500 won to 42,900 won. The institutional investors’ demand for the Ecopro BM IPO was extremely strong at 988 to 1. 
• In our previous report Ecopro BM IPO: Valuation Analysis, we proposed the base case to high end of the company’s value to be between 56,000 won and 67,800 won. Given the enormous institutional demand for this IPO, it appears that our base case valuation (56,000 won), which is 17% higher than the IPO price, may be too conservative. 
• A more likely scenario now is that the stock reaches about 65,000 won to 70,000 won in the first few hours of trading on the first day, overshooting its intrinsic value and sells off a bit for a few days/weeks, enters a consolidation phase and then resumes its higher share price again. 

5. New Century Hotel (浙江開元酒店) Pre-IPO – Improved Profitability Not Driven by Underlying Operations

Zhejiang New Century Hotel Management Group (ZHEKAIH HK) (ZNCH) is looking to raise US$220m in its upcoming IPO. 

ZNCH is a hotel operator and manager with presence across China. The company grew its revenue by a modest 5% from 2015 to 2017 but made significant improvements in profitability. Gross profit, EBITDA and PATMI grew by 33%, 61%, and 132% CAGR over the same period.

However, the improved profitability has not been driven by underlying operations. The company seemed a tad too ambitious to be expanding via leasing hotel when it already has a large hotel management pipeline.

In this insight, we will look at the company’s financial and operational performance, the drivers of its strong margin expansion, and include some questions for management.

In this briefing:

1. MabPharma (迈博医药) IPO: Assembled for a Trade?
2. New Century Hotel Mgmt IPO Preview: Two-Speed Businesses
3. A Trading Strategy for EcoproBM Post IPO
4. New Century Hotel (浙江開元酒店) Pre-IPO – Improved Profitability Not Driven by Underlying Operations
5. Ab InBev Asia Pre-IPO – Quick Note – More like CR Beer Rather than Tsingtao

1. MabPharma (迈博医药) IPO: Assembled for a Trade?

MabPharma, backed by Chinese private equity investor CDH, is seeking to list in Hong Kong. In this insight, we will discuss the following topics:

• The company’s background
• Details of pipeline drug candidates, the potential market of these products and the competition
• Shareholders and investors
• Questions for management meetings
• Summary of our likes and concerns

We will leave the discussion of valuation for our next insight.

• CStone Pharma (基石药业) IPO: Strong Assembly and Backing (Part 1)

• Viva Biotech (维亚生物) IPO: When CRO Becomes Early Stage Biotech Investor

• Hansoh Pharma (翰森制药) IPO: Takeaways from Recent 4+7 City Centralized Tender Results

• Hansoh Pharma (翰森制药) IPO: A Leading Generic Player with Regulatory Overhang (Part 1)
• WuXi Apptec (药明康德) IPO: This A+H Listing Will Be Different

• Frontage Holding (方达控股) IPO: More Disclosure Needed to Understand Moat and Growth Prospect
• Ascentage Pharma (亚盛医药) IPO: Too Early for an IPO
• Junshi Bioscience (君实医药) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation (Part 2)
• Junshi Bioscience (君实医药) IPO: Early in Application but Behind in Key Indications (Part 1)
• CanSino Biologics (康希诺) IPO: Promising Pre-Clinical Results but Vaccine Scandal Weighs (Part 1)

• AOBiome Therapeutics IPO: Hope for Natural Therapeutic Treatment
• Stealth Biotherapeutics IPO: Cure the Symptoms but Not the Cause (Part 1)
• Innovent Biologics (信达生物) IPO: Pricing the PD-1 and Biosimilars Competition (Part 2)
• Innovent Biologics (信达生物) IPO: A Major PD-1 MAb Competitor Might Have Just Emerged (Part 1)
• MicuRx Pharma (盟科医药) IPO: Betting on Single Drug in the Not so Attractive Antibiotic Segment
• Hua Medicine (华领医药) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation
• Hua Medicine (华领医药) IPO: Reviving Roche’s Failed Attempt?
• BeiGene (百济神州) IPO: Dual-Listing with Upside Capped in the Near Term
• Ascletis Pharma (歌礼制药) IPO: Valuation Not Justified by Ganovo and Ravidasvir NPV (Part 3)
• Ascletis Pharma (歌礼制药) IPO: Three Valuation Risk Factors (Part 2)
• Ascletis Pharma (歌礼制药) IPO: Emerging Player in the Crowded HCV Drug Market
• China Isotope & Radiation IPO: Oligopoly, Visible Growth and High Barrier to Entry
• Zai Lab IPO: Thoughts on Valuation, Risks and Upsides (Part 2)
• Zai Lab IPO: Experienced Team, Promising In-Licensing Drug Pipeline (Part 1)

2. New Century Hotel Mgmt IPO Preview: Two-Speed Businesses

Zhejiang New Century Hotel Management Group (ZHEKAIH HK)  is a leading hotel group in China engaged in the operation and management of mid-scale and upscale hotel chains. New Century has started pre-marketing for a Hong Kong IPO to raise up to $200 million, according to press reports.

3. A Trading Strategy for EcoproBM Post IPO

• In this report, we provide a trading strategy for Ecopro BM Co Ltd (247540 KS) IPO, which is expected to start trading on March 5th. The IPO price has been determined at 48,000 won, which is 19% higher than the mid-point of the original IPO price range of 37,500 won to 42,900 won. The institutional investors’ demand for the Ecopro BM IPO was extremely strong at 988 to 1. 
• In our previous report Ecopro BM IPO: Valuation Analysis, we proposed the base case to high end of the company’s value to be between 56,000 won and 67,800 won. Given the enormous institutional demand for this IPO, it appears that our base case valuation (56,000 won), which is 17% higher than the IPO price, may be too conservative. 
• A more likely scenario now is that the stock reaches about 65,000 won to 70,000 won in the first few hours of trading on the first day, overshooting its intrinsic value and sells off a bit for a few days/weeks, enters a consolidation phase and then resumes its higher share price again. 

4. New Century Hotel (浙江開元酒店) Pre-IPO – Improved Profitability Not Driven by Underlying Operations

Zhejiang New Century Hotel Management Group (ZHEKAIH HK) (ZNCH) is looking to raise US$220m in its upcoming IPO. 

ZNCH is a hotel operator and manager with presence across China. The company grew its revenue by a modest 5% from 2015 to 2017 but made significant improvements in profitability. Gross profit, EBITDA and PATMI grew by 33%, 61%, and 132% CAGR over the same period.

However, the improved profitability has not been driven by underlying operations. The company seemed a tad too ambitious to be expanding via leasing hotel when it already has a large hotel management pipeline.

In this insight, we will look at the company’s financial and operational performance, the drivers of its strong margin expansion, and include some questions for management.

5. Ab InBev Asia Pre-IPO – Quick Note – More like CR Beer Rather than Tsingtao

Anheuser Busch Inbev Sa/Nv (ABI BB) is looking to list its Asian operations in order to lighten its debt burden. The listing will probably be in Hong Kong and the company could raise around US$5bn at a valuation of around US$70bn.

In my earlier insight, Ab InBev Asia Pre-IPO – A Brief History of the Asia Pacific Operations – Eeking Out Growth in China, I looked at how the Asian operations of ABI have shaped up over the past few years.  

In this insight, I’ll do a quick comparison of the past financial performance of China Resources Beer Holdin (291 HK) and Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd H (168 HK).

In this briefing:

1. New Century Hotel Mgmt IPO Preview: Two-Speed Businesses
2. A Trading Strategy for EcoproBM Post IPO
3. New Century Hotel (浙江開元酒店) Pre-IPO – Improved Profitability Not Driven by Underlying Operations
4. Ab InBev Asia Pre-IPO – Quick Note – More like CR Beer Rather than Tsingtao
5. Hyundai Autoever IPO Preview

1. New Century Hotel Mgmt IPO Preview: Two-Speed Businesses

Zhejiang New Century Hotel Management Group (ZHEKAIH HK)  is a leading hotel group in China engaged in the operation and management of mid-scale and upscale hotel chains. New Century has started pre-marketing for a Hong Kong IPO to raise up to $200 million, according to press reports.

2. A Trading Strategy for EcoproBM Post IPO

• In this report, we provide a trading strategy for Ecopro BM Co Ltd (247540 KS) IPO, which is expected to start trading on March 5th. The IPO price has been determined at 48,000 won, which is 19% higher than the mid-point of the original IPO price range of 37,500 won to 42,900 won. The institutional investors’ demand for the Ecopro BM IPO was extremely strong at 988 to 1. 
• In our previous report Ecopro BM IPO: Valuation Analysis, we proposed the base case to high end of the company’s value to be between 56,000 won and 67,800 won. Given the enormous institutional demand for this IPO, it appears that our base case valuation (56,000 won), which is 17% higher than the IPO price, may be too conservative. 
• A more likely scenario now is that the stock reaches about 65,000 won to 70,000 won in the first few hours of trading on the first day, overshooting its intrinsic value and sells off a bit for a few days/weeks, enters a consolidation phase and then resumes its higher share price again. 

3. New Century Hotel (浙江開元酒店) Pre-IPO – Improved Profitability Not Driven by Underlying Operations

Zhejiang New Century Hotel Management Group (ZHEKAIH HK) (ZNCH) is looking to raise US$220m in its upcoming IPO. 

ZNCH is a hotel operator and manager with presence across China. The company grew its revenue by a modest 5% from 2015 to 2017 but made significant improvements in profitability. Gross profit, EBITDA and PATMI grew by 33%, 61%, and 132% CAGR over the same period.

However, the improved profitability has not been driven by underlying operations. The company seemed a tad too ambitious to be expanding via leasing hotel when it already has a large hotel management pipeline.

In this insight, we will look at the company’s financial and operational performance, the drivers of its strong margin expansion, and include some questions for management.

4. Ab InBev Asia Pre-IPO – Quick Note – More like CR Beer Rather than Tsingtao

Anheuser Busch Inbev Sa/Nv (ABI BB) is looking to list its Asian operations in order to lighten its debt burden. The listing will probably be in Hong Kong and the company could raise around US$5bn at a valuation of around US$70bn.

In my earlier insight, Ab InBev Asia Pre-IPO – A Brief History of the Asia Pacific Operations – Eeking Out Growth in China, I looked at how the Asian operations of ABI have shaped up over the past few years.  

In this insight, I’ll do a quick comparison of the past financial performance of China Resources Beer Holdin (291 HK) and Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd H (168 HK).

5. Hyundai Autoever IPO Preview

• Hyundai Autoever is ready to complete its IPO in March 2019. Established in 2000, Hyundai Autoever is the IT service arm of the Hyundai Motor Group. Hyundai Autoever is expected to play a key role in the Hyundai Motor Group’s push to become a leading global player of autonomous driving in the coming decade. 
• The IPO price range is between 40,000 won and 44,000 won. The IPO base deal size is from $125 million to $138 million. According to the bankers’ valuation, the expected market cap is expected to range from 840 billion won to 924 billion won. 
• The bankers used four companies including Samsung SDS, POSCO ICT, Lotte Data Comm, and Shinsegae I&C to value Hyundai Autoever. Using the annualized net profit of the comps in 2018, the bankers derived an average P/E multiple of 24x for the peers. Then the bankers took the annualized net profit of Hyundai Autoever in 2018 (52.2 billion won) and applied the peers average P/E multiple of 24x to derive the implied market cap of 1.25 trillion won. After applying additional IPO discount of 26.4% – 33.1%, the bankers derived the IPO price range of 40,000 to 44,000 won.