ECM

In this briefing:

1. Meituan Dianping (美团点评): Thoughts Before Lock-Up Expiry
2. NIO’s (蔚来) Guidance Makes Selling upon Lock-Expiry More Compelling
3. Hyundai Autoever IPO Valuation Analysis
4. Polycab IPO: Largest Cables Player, Asset-Heavy Low ROE Model = Vulnerable to Govt Capex Slowdown
5. RHB Bank Placement – A Little Less Surprising but Little Bit Bigger Deal

1. Meituan Dianping (美团点评): Thoughts Before Lock-Up Expiry

Meituan Dianping, the largest O2O platform in China, was listed on September 20th last year and lock-up expiry will be on March 20th. The stock has returned -13% since listing. 

• As it heads into lock-up expiry on March 20th, we will examine Meituan Dianping shareholder structure and potential shares up for sale.
• Meituan was included by MSCI recently and will be eligible for the Hong Kong Connect soon thanks to rule amendment.
• The company delivered a decent topline growth in 3Q2018 but its profit fell short of expectation. We highlight potentials from the food supply chain solution. We also discuss implication from MoBike acquisition.
• We review our SOTP valuation of Meituan and believe there is an upside. 

2. NIO’s (蔚来) Guidance Makes Selling upon Lock-Expiry More Compelling

NIO Inc (NIO US) fell 17% in its after-hour trading session post announcement of its Q4 results.  The company turned a gross profit in Q4 while the number of cars delivered in the full year 2018 was 11,348 has beaten their own 10,000 cars target. The company is currently trading 62% above its IPO price.

However, the worrying part lies in its guidance which could mean that pre-IPO investors have more compelling reasons to lock-in some profits upon lock-up expiry.

3. Hyundai Autoever IPO Valuation Analysis

Hyundai Autoever Corp (0978519D KS) IPO institutional investors bookbuilding starts in about seven days. In conclusion, we believe a 11-13x EV/EBIT valuation multiples are appropriate for Hyundai Autoever. These multiples are between the average comps multiples and slightly lower multiples than Samsung SDS’ level. Our base case implied market cap is 1.25 trillion won, representing 59,454 won, or 35% higher than the high end of the IPO price range of 44,000 won. As such, we would take this deal. 

To value Hyundai Autoever, we prefer to use EV/EBIT multiples. However, we have also referenced P/Sales and P/E multiples based valuations for comparison purposes. The comps have better sales growth, operating profit growth, and balance sheet strength. However, Hyundai Autoever has better net margin and ROE. 

We believe that Hyundai Autoever should trade at lower EV/EBIT multiples than Samsung SDS but similar to higher multiples than POSCO ICT and Lotte Data Communications. Hyundai Autoever is expected to play a key role in the Hyundai Motor Group’s push to become a leading global player of autonomous driving in the coming decade. 

4. Polycab IPO: Largest Cables Player, Asset-Heavy Low ROE Model = Vulnerable to Govt Capex Slowdown

• Polycab India (POLY IN) is the largest wires and cables manufacturer in India almost 2x the size of its next largest competitor. It is also present in electrical consumer durables and EPC projects.
• Company’s 14% revenue Cagr over FY14-18 was aided by government’s increased capex in rural and railway electrification.
• Despite large B2B exposure, company managed to defend gross margins over FY15-18 by passing on input cost variations to its customers. Operating margins have also been steady on the back of improving margins in the key wires and cables segment.
• High B2B nature of business results in 90+days of working capital cycle. Business is capex heavy (annual run rate Rs2.4bn over FY15-18). Company has the lowest asset turnover among its listed peers. It also generates the lowest amount of free cashflows among its peers.
• Investing most of the operating cash in the business would have been great if company was generating healthy ROE. But company’s ROE is in the sub 15% range and it would fall further after the planned Rs5bn primary issue.
• The asset-heavy and low ROE model makes Polycab more dependent on earnings growth to drive stock performance. This, in turn, makes it more vulnerable to any slowdown in government capex in electrification compared to peers.

5. RHB Bank Placement – A Little Less Surprising but Little Bit Bigger Deal

Aabar Investments, plans to sell US$250m worth of its RHB Bank Bhd (RHBBANK MK) or about 4.76% of company to reduce its holding to just under 10%. 

This is the second sell-down by Aabar in less than a year. The earlier selldown in August 2018, RHB Bank Placement – Probably More Selldown in the Coming Months, was priced at the low-end and didn’t do much in the first week. That was a smaller and less well flagged selldown. 

Although, the stock has done well since then and is trading 12.5% above the last selldown price. The deal scores well on our framework given its strong earnings and price momentum. However, the overhang risk from the remaining 9.9% stake held by Aabar remains. 

In this briefing:

1. NIO’s (蔚来) Guidance Makes Selling upon Lock-Expiry More Compelling
2. Hyundai Autoever IPO Valuation Analysis
3. Polycab IPO: Largest Cables Player, Asset-Heavy Low ROE Model = Vulnerable to Govt Capex Slowdown
4. RHB Bank Placement – A Little Less Surprising but Little Bit Bigger Deal
5. Nio (蔚来) Lock-Up Expiry – Scattered Pre-IPO Investors to Be the Sellers

1. NIO’s (蔚来) Guidance Makes Selling upon Lock-Expiry More Compelling

NIO Inc (NIO US) fell 17% in its after-hour trading session post announcement of its Q4 results.  The company turned a gross profit in Q4 while the number of cars delivered in the full year 2018 was 11,348 has beaten their own 10,000 cars target. The company is currently trading 62% above its IPO price.

However, the worrying part lies in its guidance which could mean that pre-IPO investors have more compelling reasons to lock-in some profits upon lock-up expiry.

2. Hyundai Autoever IPO Valuation Analysis

Hyundai Autoever Corp (0978519D KS) IPO institutional investors bookbuilding starts in about seven days. In conclusion, we believe a 11-13x EV/EBIT valuation multiples are appropriate for Hyundai Autoever. These multiples are between the average comps multiples and slightly lower multiples than Samsung SDS’ level. Our base case implied market cap is 1.25 trillion won, representing 59,454 won, or 35% higher than the high end of the IPO price range of 44,000 won. As such, we would take this deal. 

To value Hyundai Autoever, we prefer to use EV/EBIT multiples. However, we have also referenced P/Sales and P/E multiples based valuations for comparison purposes. The comps have better sales growth, operating profit growth, and balance sheet strength. However, Hyundai Autoever has better net margin and ROE. 

We believe that Hyundai Autoever should trade at lower EV/EBIT multiples than Samsung SDS but similar to higher multiples than POSCO ICT and Lotte Data Communications. Hyundai Autoever is expected to play a key role in the Hyundai Motor Group’s push to become a leading global player of autonomous driving in the coming decade. 

3. Polycab IPO: Largest Cables Player, Asset-Heavy Low ROE Model = Vulnerable to Govt Capex Slowdown

• Polycab India (POLY IN) is the largest wires and cables manufacturer in India almost 2x the size of its next largest competitor. It is also present in electrical consumer durables and EPC projects.
• Company’s 14% revenue Cagr over FY14-18 was aided by government’s increased capex in rural and railway electrification.
• Despite large B2B exposure, company managed to defend gross margins over FY15-18 by passing on input cost variations to its customers. Operating margins have also been steady on the back of improving margins in the key wires and cables segment.
• High B2B nature of business results in 90+days of working capital cycle. Business is capex heavy (annual run rate Rs2.4bn over FY15-18). Company has the lowest asset turnover among its listed peers. It also generates the lowest amount of free cashflows among its peers.
• Investing most of the operating cash in the business would have been great if company was generating healthy ROE. But company’s ROE is in the sub 15% range and it would fall further after the planned Rs5bn primary issue.
• The asset-heavy and low ROE model makes Polycab more dependent on earnings growth to drive stock performance. This, in turn, makes it more vulnerable to any slowdown in government capex in electrification compared to peers.

4. RHB Bank Placement – A Little Less Surprising but Little Bit Bigger Deal

Aabar Investments, plans to sell US$250m worth of its RHB Bank Bhd (RHBBANK MK) or about 4.76% of company to reduce its holding to just under 10%. 

This is the second sell-down by Aabar in less than a year. The earlier selldown in August 2018, RHB Bank Placement – Probably More Selldown in the Coming Months, was priced at the low-end and didn’t do much in the first week. That was a smaller and less well flagged selldown. 

Although, the stock has done well since then and is trading 12.5% above the last selldown price. The deal scores well on our framework given its strong earnings and price momentum. However, the overhang risk from the remaining 9.9% stake held by Aabar remains. 

5. Nio (蔚来) Lock-Up Expiry – Scattered Pre-IPO Investors to Be the Sellers

NIO Inc (NIO US)‘s lock-up will expire next week on the 11th of March. Shareholding breakdown suggests that there will be overhang upon lock-up expiry due to the large number of scattered pre-IPO shareholders. 

In this insight, we will look at the principal and pre-IPO investors and analyze who and how many shares would likely be sold upon lock-up expiry.

In this briefing:

1. Hyundai Autoever IPO Valuation Analysis
2. Polycab IPO: Largest Cables Player, Asset-Heavy Low ROE Model = Vulnerable to Govt Capex Slowdown
3. RHB Bank Placement – A Little Less Surprising but Little Bit Bigger Deal
4. Nio (蔚来) Lock-Up Expiry – Scattered Pre-IPO Investors to Be the Sellers
5. LYFT Pre-IPO – Drivers and Shared Rides Hold the Key But the Numbers Are Missing

1. Hyundai Autoever IPO Valuation Analysis

Hyundai Autoever Corp (0978519D KS) IPO institutional investors bookbuilding starts in about seven days. In conclusion, we believe a 11-13x EV/EBIT valuation multiples are appropriate for Hyundai Autoever. These multiples are between the average comps multiples and slightly lower multiples than Samsung SDS’ level. Our base case implied market cap is 1.25 trillion won, representing 59,454 won, or 35% higher than the high end of the IPO price range of 44,000 won. As such, we would take this deal. 

To value Hyundai Autoever, we prefer to use EV/EBIT multiples. However, we have also referenced P/Sales and P/E multiples based valuations for comparison purposes. The comps have better sales growth, operating profit growth, and balance sheet strength. However, Hyundai Autoever has better net margin and ROE. 

We believe that Hyundai Autoever should trade at lower EV/EBIT multiples than Samsung SDS but similar to higher multiples than POSCO ICT and Lotte Data Communications. Hyundai Autoever is expected to play a key role in the Hyundai Motor Group’s push to become a leading global player of autonomous driving in the coming decade. 

2. Polycab IPO: Largest Cables Player, Asset-Heavy Low ROE Model = Vulnerable to Govt Capex Slowdown

• Polycab India (POLY IN) is the largest wires and cables manufacturer in India almost 2x the size of its next largest competitor. It is also present in electrical consumer durables and EPC projects.
• Company’s 14% revenue Cagr over FY14-18 was aided by government’s increased capex in rural and railway electrification.
• Despite large B2B exposure, company managed to defend gross margins over FY15-18 by passing on input cost variations to its customers. Operating margins have also been steady on the back of improving margins in the key wires and cables segment.
• High B2B nature of business results in 90+days of working capital cycle. Business is capex heavy (annual run rate Rs2.4bn over FY15-18). Company has the lowest asset turnover among its listed peers. It also generates the lowest amount of free cashflows among its peers.
• Investing most of the operating cash in the business would have been great if company was generating healthy ROE. But company’s ROE is in the sub 15% range and it would fall further after the planned Rs5bn primary issue.
• The asset-heavy and low ROE model makes Polycab more dependent on earnings growth to drive stock performance. This, in turn, makes it more vulnerable to any slowdown in government capex in electrification compared to peers.

3. RHB Bank Placement – A Little Less Surprising but Little Bit Bigger Deal

Aabar Investments, plans to sell US$250m worth of its RHB Bank Bhd (RHBBANK MK) or about 4.76% of company to reduce its holding to just under 10%. 

This is the second sell-down by Aabar in less than a year. The earlier selldown in August 2018, RHB Bank Placement – Probably More Selldown in the Coming Months, was priced at the low-end and didn’t do much in the first week. That was a smaller and less well flagged selldown. 

Although, the stock has done well since then and is trading 12.5% above the last selldown price. The deal scores well on our framework given its strong earnings and price momentum. However, the overhang risk from the remaining 9.9% stake held by Aabar remains. 

4. Nio (蔚来) Lock-Up Expiry – Scattered Pre-IPO Investors to Be the Sellers

NIO Inc (NIO US)‘s lock-up will expire next week on the 11th of March. Shareholding breakdown suggests that there will be overhang upon lock-up expiry due to the large number of scattered pre-IPO shareholders. 

In this insight, we will look at the principal and pre-IPO investors and analyze who and how many shares would likely be sold upon lock-up expiry.

5. LYFT Pre-IPO – Drivers and Shared Rides Hold the Key But the Numbers Are Missing

Lyft Inc (0812823D US) plans to list in the US at a valuation of US$20-25bn, as per media reports. 

Overall growth numbers have been great but some of the numbers are missing like the quarterly driver numbers, the number of shared riders versus single riders, organic growth in major cities, and progress of Canada operations, to name a few.

In my view, without the quarterly active driver numbers and the full picture of the extent of shared rides, one can’t develop an accurate picture of the business.

In this briefing:

1. Polycab IPO: Largest Cables Player, Asset-Heavy Low ROE Model = Vulnerable to Govt Capex Slowdown
2. RHB Bank Placement – A Little Less Surprising but Little Bit Bigger Deal
3. Nio (蔚来) Lock-Up Expiry – Scattered Pre-IPO Investors to Be the Sellers
4. LYFT Pre-IPO – Drivers and Shared Rides Hold the Key But the Numbers Are Missing
5. Lyft IPO Preview

1. Polycab IPO: Largest Cables Player, Asset-Heavy Low ROE Model = Vulnerable to Govt Capex Slowdown

• Polycab India (POLY IN) is the largest wires and cables manufacturer in India almost 2x the size of its next largest competitor. It is also present in electrical consumer durables and EPC projects.
• Company’s 14% revenue Cagr over FY14-18 was aided by government’s increased capex in rural and railway electrification.
• Despite large B2B exposure, company managed to defend gross margins over FY15-18 by passing on input cost variations to its customers. Operating margins have also been steady on the back of improving margins in the key wires and cables segment.
• High B2B nature of business results in 90+days of working capital cycle. Business is capex heavy (annual run rate Rs2.4bn over FY15-18). Company has the lowest asset turnover among its listed peers. It also generates the lowest amount of free cashflows among its peers.
• Investing most of the operating cash in the business would have been great if company was generating healthy ROE. But company’s ROE is in the sub 15% range and it would fall further after the planned Rs5bn primary issue.
• The asset-heavy and low ROE model makes Polycab more dependent on earnings growth to drive stock performance. This, in turn, makes it more vulnerable to any slowdown in government capex in electrification compared to peers.

2. RHB Bank Placement – A Little Less Surprising but Little Bit Bigger Deal

Aabar Investments, plans to sell US$250m worth of its RHB Bank Bhd (RHBBANK MK) or about 4.76% of company to reduce its holding to just under 10%. 

This is the second sell-down by Aabar in less than a year. The earlier selldown in August 2018, RHB Bank Placement – Probably More Selldown in the Coming Months, was priced at the low-end and didn’t do much in the first week. That was a smaller and less well flagged selldown. 

Although, the stock has done well since then and is trading 12.5% above the last selldown price. The deal scores well on our framework given its strong earnings and price momentum. However, the overhang risk from the remaining 9.9% stake held by Aabar remains. 

3. Nio (蔚来) Lock-Up Expiry – Scattered Pre-IPO Investors to Be the Sellers

NIO Inc (NIO US)‘s lock-up will expire next week on the 11th of March. Shareholding breakdown suggests that there will be overhang upon lock-up expiry due to the large number of scattered pre-IPO shareholders. 

In this insight, we will look at the principal and pre-IPO investors and analyze who and how many shares would likely be sold upon lock-up expiry.

4. LYFT Pre-IPO – Drivers and Shared Rides Hold the Key But the Numbers Are Missing

Lyft Inc (0812823D US) plans to list in the US at a valuation of US$20-25bn, as per media reports. 

Overall growth numbers have been great but some of the numbers are missing like the quarterly driver numbers, the number of shared riders versus single riders, organic growth in major cities, and progress of Canada operations, to name a few.

In my view, without the quarterly active driver numbers and the full picture of the extent of shared rides, one can’t develop an accurate picture of the business.

5. Lyft IPO Preview

Lyft Inc (LYFT US), a leading US based ride-hailing company, is getting ready for an IPO in the US in the next several weeks. One of the major positives of the Lyft IPO is the timing – Lyft should be able to complete its IPO ahead of its chief rival Uber which is expected to file its IPO later in 2019. 

The financials for Lyft will likely to change significantly in the next five to ten years, mainly due to the increased adoption of autonomous vehicles, which would reduce the need for Lyft to pay for the drivers. This cost can be eventually eliminated with full scale autonomous driving. Although we do not have figures as to exactly how much Lyft pays for all its drivers, in five to ten years when the fully autonomous vehicles are allowed, this could significantly change the basic economics of operating its ridesharing business. 

Potential shares dilution risk from additional rights offering a few years after this IPO is a serious risk for the company. Once Lyft completes its IPO in a few weeks, depending on the institutional investors’ demand for the deal, the company is likely to be infused with several billions of dollars from IPO proceeds. However, the IPO proceeds may not be enough and the company may need to conduct another large scale rights offering in a few years (for example in 2021 or 2022) which may be prior to the fully autonomous vehicles acceptance and regulatory approval by major countries around the world such as the United States.

In this briefing:

1. RHB Bank Placement – A Little Less Surprising but Little Bit Bigger Deal
2. Nio (蔚来) Lock-Up Expiry – Scattered Pre-IPO Investors to Be the Sellers
3. LYFT Pre-IPO – Drivers and Shared Rides Hold the Key But the Numbers Are Missing
4. Lyft IPO Preview
5. Sea Ltd (SE US): Placement a Good Opportunity to Enter an Attractive Story

1. RHB Bank Placement – A Little Less Surprising but Little Bit Bigger Deal

Aabar Investments, plans to sell US$250m worth of its RHB Bank Bhd (RHBBANK MK) or about 4.76% of company to reduce its holding to just under 10%. 

This is the second sell-down by Aabar in less than a year. The earlier selldown in August 2018, RHB Bank Placement – Probably More Selldown in the Coming Months, was priced at the low-end and didn’t do much in the first week. That was a smaller and less well flagged selldown. 

Although, the stock has done well since then and is trading 12.5% above the last selldown price. The deal scores well on our framework given its strong earnings and price momentum. However, the overhang risk from the remaining 9.9% stake held by Aabar remains. 

2. Nio (蔚来) Lock-Up Expiry – Scattered Pre-IPO Investors to Be the Sellers

NIO Inc (NIO US)‘s lock-up will expire next week on the 11th of March. Shareholding breakdown suggests that there will be overhang upon lock-up expiry due to the large number of scattered pre-IPO shareholders. 

In this insight, we will look at the principal and pre-IPO investors and analyze who and how many shares would likely be sold upon lock-up expiry.

3. LYFT Pre-IPO – Drivers and Shared Rides Hold the Key But the Numbers Are Missing

Lyft Inc (0812823D US) plans to list in the US at a valuation of US$20-25bn, as per media reports. 

Overall growth numbers have been great but some of the numbers are missing like the quarterly driver numbers, the number of shared riders versus single riders, organic growth in major cities, and progress of Canada operations, to name a few.

In my view, without the quarterly active driver numbers and the full picture of the extent of shared rides, one can’t develop an accurate picture of the business.

4. Lyft IPO Preview

Lyft Inc (LYFT US), a leading US based ride-hailing company, is getting ready for an IPO in the US in the next several weeks. One of the major positives of the Lyft IPO is the timing – Lyft should be able to complete its IPO ahead of its chief rival Uber which is expected to file its IPO later in 2019. 

The financials for Lyft will likely to change significantly in the next five to ten years, mainly due to the increased adoption of autonomous vehicles, which would reduce the need for Lyft to pay for the drivers. This cost can be eventually eliminated with full scale autonomous driving. Although we do not have figures as to exactly how much Lyft pays for all its drivers, in five to ten years when the fully autonomous vehicles are allowed, this could significantly change the basic economics of operating its ridesharing business. 

Potential shares dilution risk from additional rights offering a few years after this IPO is a serious risk for the company. Once Lyft completes its IPO in a few weeks, depending on the institutional investors’ demand for the deal, the company is likely to be infused with several billions of dollars from IPO proceeds. However, the IPO proceeds may not be enough and the company may need to conduct another large scale rights offering in a few years (for example in 2021 or 2022) which may be prior to the fully autonomous vehicles acceptance and regulatory approval by major countries around the world such as the United States.

5. Sea Ltd (SE US): Placement a Good Opportunity to Enter an Attractive Story

Last Friday, Sea Ltd (SE US) unveiled plans to raise around $1 billion (based on the closing price on 28 February) through an underwritten public offering of 50 million ADS. The fundraising was inevitable due to the high cash burn and net cash position.

In this briefing:

1. Nio (蔚来) Lock-Up Expiry – Scattered Pre-IPO Investors to Be the Sellers
2. LYFT Pre-IPO – Drivers and Shared Rides Hold the Key But the Numbers Are Missing
3. Lyft IPO Preview
4. Sea Ltd (SE US): Placement a Good Opportunity to Enter an Attractive Story
5. Sea Ltd Placement – Capitalizing on Momentum

1. Nio (蔚来) Lock-Up Expiry – Scattered Pre-IPO Investors to Be the Sellers

NIO Inc (NIO US)‘s lock-up will expire next week on the 11th of March. Shareholding breakdown suggests that there will be overhang upon lock-up expiry due to the large number of scattered pre-IPO shareholders. 

In this insight, we will look at the principal and pre-IPO investors and analyze who and how many shares would likely be sold upon lock-up expiry.

2. LYFT Pre-IPO – Drivers and Shared Rides Hold the Key But the Numbers Are Missing

Lyft Inc (0812823D US) plans to list in the US at a valuation of US$20-25bn, as per media reports. 

Overall growth numbers have been great but some of the numbers are missing like the quarterly driver numbers, the number of shared riders versus single riders, organic growth in major cities, and progress of Canada operations, to name a few.

In my view, without the quarterly active driver numbers and the full picture of the extent of shared rides, one can’t develop an accurate picture of the business.

3. Lyft IPO Preview

Lyft Inc (LYFT US), a leading US based ride-hailing company, is getting ready for an IPO in the US in the next several weeks. One of the major positives of the Lyft IPO is the timing – Lyft should be able to complete its IPO ahead of its chief rival Uber which is expected to file its IPO later in 2019. 

The financials for Lyft will likely to change significantly in the next five to ten years, mainly due to the increased adoption of autonomous vehicles, which would reduce the need for Lyft to pay for the drivers. This cost can be eventually eliminated with full scale autonomous driving. Although we do not have figures as to exactly how much Lyft pays for all its drivers, in five to ten years when the fully autonomous vehicles are allowed, this could significantly change the basic economics of operating its ridesharing business. 

Potential shares dilution risk from additional rights offering a few years after this IPO is a serious risk for the company. Once Lyft completes its IPO in a few weeks, depending on the institutional investors’ demand for the deal, the company is likely to be infused with several billions of dollars from IPO proceeds. However, the IPO proceeds may not be enough and the company may need to conduct another large scale rights offering in a few years (for example in 2021 or 2022) which may be prior to the fully autonomous vehicles acceptance and regulatory approval by major countries around the world such as the United States.

4. Sea Ltd (SE US): Placement a Good Opportunity to Enter an Attractive Story

Last Friday, Sea Ltd (SE US) unveiled plans to raise around $1 billion (based on the closing price on 28 February) through an underwritten public offering of 50 million ADS. The fundraising was inevitable due to the high cash burn and net cash position.

5. Sea Ltd Placement – Capitalizing on Momentum

Sea Ltd (SE US) is looking to raise about US$1.2bn in its upcoming placement. It will be larger than its IPO in 2017, which raised about US$880m.

The deal scores well on our framework owing to decent valuation, strong price and earnings momentum but had little track record for comparison. The company announced a strong set of FY2018/Q4 2018 results which had beaten estimates. 

Even though, the deal size is large, representing 23.2 days of three-month ADV, there is enough time between the announcement to the end of the bookbuild to price in the impact of the placement. 

In this briefing:

1. LYFT Pre-IPO – Drivers and Shared Rides Hold the Key But the Numbers Are Missing
2. Lyft IPO Preview
3. Sea Ltd (SE US): Placement a Good Opportunity to Enter an Attractive Story
4. Sea Ltd Placement – Capitalizing on Momentum
5. Shenwan Hongyuan (申万宏源) A+H: A Commoditized Broker Business

1. LYFT Pre-IPO – Drivers and Shared Rides Hold the Key But the Numbers Are Missing

Lyft Inc (0812823D US) plans to list in the US at a valuation of US$20-25bn, as per media reports. 

Overall growth numbers have been great but some of the numbers are missing like the quarterly driver numbers, the number of shared riders versus single riders, organic growth in major cities, and progress of Canada operations, to name a few.

In my view, without the quarterly active driver numbers and the full picture of the extent of shared rides, one can’t develop an accurate picture of the business.

2. Lyft IPO Preview

Lyft Inc (LYFT US), a leading US based ride-hailing company, is getting ready for an IPO in the US in the next several weeks. One of the major positives of the Lyft IPO is the timing – Lyft should be able to complete its IPO ahead of its chief rival Uber which is expected to file its IPO later in 2019. 

The financials for Lyft will likely to change significantly in the next five to ten years, mainly due to the increased adoption of autonomous vehicles, which would reduce the need for Lyft to pay for the drivers. This cost can be eventually eliminated with full scale autonomous driving. Although we do not have figures as to exactly how much Lyft pays for all its drivers, in five to ten years when the fully autonomous vehicles are allowed, this could significantly change the basic economics of operating its ridesharing business. 

Potential shares dilution risk from additional rights offering a few years after this IPO is a serious risk for the company. Once Lyft completes its IPO in a few weeks, depending on the institutional investors’ demand for the deal, the company is likely to be infused with several billions of dollars from IPO proceeds. However, the IPO proceeds may not be enough and the company may need to conduct another large scale rights offering in a few years (for example in 2021 or 2022) which may be prior to the fully autonomous vehicles acceptance and regulatory approval by major countries around the world such as the United States.

3. Sea Ltd (SE US): Placement a Good Opportunity to Enter an Attractive Story

Last Friday, Sea Ltd (SE US) unveiled plans to raise around $1 billion (based on the closing price on 28 February) through an underwritten public offering of 50 million ADS. The fundraising was inevitable due to the high cash burn and net cash position.

4. Sea Ltd Placement – Capitalizing on Momentum

Sea Ltd (SE US) is looking to raise about US$1.2bn in its upcoming placement. It will be larger than its IPO in 2017, which raised about US$880m.

The deal scores well on our framework owing to decent valuation, strong price and earnings momentum but had little track record for comparison. The company announced a strong set of FY2018/Q4 2018 results which had beaten estimates. 

Even though, the deal size is large, representing 23.2 days of three-month ADV, there is enough time between the announcement to the end of the bookbuild to price in the impact of the placement. 

5. Shenwan Hongyuan (申万宏源) A+H: A Commoditized Broker Business

Shenwan Hongyuan filed in November to list in Hong Kong. It is a leading brokerage house in China. With an A-share market capitalization of USD 18 billion, the company plans to issue up to 20% of its shares for an A+H listing. In this insight, we will discuss:

• Company’s history.
• Comparison with leading Chinese brokers.
• Our thoughts on valuation.

In this briefing:

1. Sea Ltd: Follow-On Public Offering an Opportunistic Fundraising?
2. Lyft IPO Preview: Maybe We’ll Just Walk?
3. ECM Weekly (2 March 2019) – Futu, Tiger Brokers, China Risun, China Tobacco, Zhejiang New Century
4. Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) Pre-IPO Quick Note – Much Too Reliant on IBKR
5. Futu Holdings IPO Quick Note – Comparison with Tiger Brokers – Same Market, Different Economics

1. Sea Ltd: Follow-On Public Offering an Opportunistic Fundraising?

• We evaluate the attractiveness of Sea Ltd’s (SE US) US$1 bn follow-on public offering announced last Fri.
• This offering is a typical opportunistic fundraising as its ADR price has recently surged.
• At assumed deal price of US$21, SE post deal would trade at 4.6x 2019E P/adjusted sales (excl. 1P e-commerce sales), vs. peers average of 5.2x.
• We would recommend investors to go for the deal if it is priced at US$20 or lower.

2. Lyft IPO Preview: Maybe We’ll Just Walk?

Lyft Inc (0812823D US) , a leading ride-sharing company, released its IPO prospectus in order to raise 3bn USD. Our key points are below 

Intro to Lyft

Lyft – a comparison vs. peers

Strengths and Weaknesses

Financials

3. ECM Weekly (2 March 2019) – Futu, Tiger Brokers, China Risun, China Tobacco, Zhejiang New Century

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by Smartkarma Insight Providers recently, along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Accuracy Rate:

Our overall accuracy rate is 72.2% for IPOs and 63.7% for Placements 

(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)

New IPO filings

• ESR Cayman (Hong Kong, ~US$1.5bn)
• Jinshang Bank (Hong Kong, ~US$500m)
• China Everbright Water (Hong Kong, >US$100m, dual-listing)
• Up Fintech/Tiger Brokers (the US, >US$100m)

Below is a snippet of our IPO tool showing upcoming events for the next week. The IPO tool is designed to provide readers with timely information on all IPO related events (Book open/closing, listing, initiation, lock-up expiry, etc) for all the deals that we have worked on. You can access the tool here or through the tools menu.

News on Upcoming IPOs

• Global Switch Picks Banks for Over $1 Billion IPO
• Warburg Pincus-backed ESR files for Hong Kong IPO of up to $1.5 billion
• Ping An plans IPO of fintech unit in HK at $1.35b
• Starbucks’ China rival Luckin Coffee taps 3 banks for US IPO

Smartkarma Community’s this week Analysis on Upcoming IPO

• Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) Pre-IPO Quick Note – Much Too Reliant on IBKR
• Futu Holdings IPO Quick Note – Comparison with Tiger Brokers – Same Market, Different Economics
• China Risun (中国旭阳) IPO Quick Note: Past the Peak of Coking Cycle
• Futu Holdings IPO – Given the Team, Execution, and Backers, Might Be Worth a Look at the Low-End
• China Tobacco Intl (HK) IPO: Proxy For the Chinese Cigarette Consumption
• New Century Hotel (浙江開元酒店) IPO Review – Higher ADR and RevPAR than Peers but Margins Fall Short
• Futu Holdings Pre-IPO – FY18 Updates And Quick Thoughts on Valuation
• Yincheng Intl (银城国际) IPO Quick Note: A Highly Levered Nanjing Developer Bet

4. Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) Pre-IPO Quick Note – Much Too Reliant on IBKR

Up Fintech (TIGR US) plans to raise up to US$150m in its US listing. The company counts Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) and Interactive Brokers Group, Inc (IBKR US) as its main investors.

While TIGR has grown at a stupendous pace over the past three years, it has been able to do so owing to IBKR doing most of the heavy lifting of execution and clearing. While its trying to change that now, nearly all the revenue is still being driven by its IBKR affiliation.

I’ve covered some of the aspects of TIGR’s model in Futu Holdings IPO Quick Note – Comparison with Tiger Brokers – Same Market, Different Economics. In this insight, I’ll take a quick look at the company’s performance and the issues highlighted above. 

5. Futu Holdings IPO Quick Note – Comparison with Tiger Brokers – Same Market, Different Economics

Futu Holdings Ltd (FHL US) plans to raise up to US$130m in its US listing. 

In my earlier insights, I looked at the company’s background,  past financial performance and scored the deal on our IPO framework.: 

• Futu Holdings Pre-IPO – Great Metrics but in a Commoditised Industry, 
• Futu Holdings Pre-IPO – FY18 Updates And Quick Thoughts on Valuation, and
• Futu Holdings IPO – Given the Team, Execution, and Backers, Might Be Worth a Look at the Low-End 

In this insight, I do a quick comparison of Futu versus Up Fintech (TIGR US) (aka Tiger Brokers) who is regarded as Futu’s main competitor in the space.

In this briefing:

1. Lyft IPO Preview
2. Sea Ltd (SE US): Placement a Good Opportunity to Enter an Attractive Story
3. Sea Ltd Placement – Capitalizing on Momentum
4. Shenwan Hongyuan (申万宏源) A+H: A Commoditized Broker Business
5. Embassy Office Parks REIT – Comparison with AIT and a Look at the Required Yield

1. Lyft IPO Preview

Lyft Inc (LYFT US), a leading US based ride-hailing company, is getting ready for an IPO in the US in the next several weeks. One of the major positives of the Lyft IPO is the timing – Lyft should be able to complete its IPO ahead of its chief rival Uber which is expected to file its IPO later in 2019. 

The financials for Lyft will likely to change significantly in the next five to ten years, mainly due to the increased adoption of autonomous vehicles, which would reduce the need for Lyft to pay for the drivers. This cost can be eventually eliminated with full scale autonomous driving. Although we do not have figures as to exactly how much Lyft pays for all its drivers, in five to ten years when the fully autonomous vehicles are allowed, this could significantly change the basic economics of operating its ridesharing business. 

Potential shares dilution risk from additional rights offering a few years after this IPO is a serious risk for the company. Once Lyft completes its IPO in a few weeks, depending on the institutional investors’ demand for the deal, the company is likely to be infused with several billions of dollars from IPO proceeds. However, the IPO proceeds may not be enough and the company may need to conduct another large scale rights offering in a few years (for example in 2021 or 2022) which may be prior to the fully autonomous vehicles acceptance and regulatory approval by major countries around the world such as the United States.

2. Sea Ltd (SE US): Placement a Good Opportunity to Enter an Attractive Story

Last Friday, Sea Ltd (SE US) unveiled plans to raise around $1 billion (based on the closing price on 28 February) through an underwritten public offering of 50 million ADS. The fundraising was inevitable due to the high cash burn and net cash position.

3. Sea Ltd Placement – Capitalizing on Momentum

Sea Ltd (SE US) is looking to raise about US$1.2bn in its upcoming placement. It will be larger than its IPO in 2017, which raised about US$880m.

The deal scores well on our framework owing to decent valuation, strong price and earnings momentum but had little track record for comparison. The company announced a strong set of FY2018/Q4 2018 results which had beaten estimates. 

Even though, the deal size is large, representing 23.2 days of three-month ADV, there is enough time between the announcement to the end of the bookbuild to price in the impact of the placement. 

4. Shenwan Hongyuan (申万宏源) A+H: A Commoditized Broker Business

Shenwan Hongyuan filed in November to list in Hong Kong. It is a leading brokerage house in China. With an A-share market capitalization of USD 18 billion, the company plans to issue up to 20% of its shares for an A+H listing. In this insight, we will discuss:

• Company’s history.
• Comparison with leading Chinese brokers.
• Our thoughts on valuation.

5. Embassy Office Parks REIT – Comparison with AIT and a Look at the Required Yield

Embassy Office Parks REIT (EOP IN) plans to raise around US$1bn in its India IPO. EOP will primarily hold office assets in Bengaluru, Pune and Noida with a total portfolio size of US$4.2bn. 

In my previous insight, Embassy Office Parks REIT – Good Assets but Projections Might Be a Tad Too Bullish I covered the company background and its projected growth. In this insight, I’ll compare it to its closest listed peer, Ascendas India Trust (AIT SP) and add in the performance of other yield driven listings in India.

In this briefing:

1. Sea Ltd (SE US): Placement a Good Opportunity to Enter an Attractive Story
2. Sea Ltd Placement – Capitalizing on Momentum
3. Shenwan Hongyuan (申万宏源) A+H: A Commoditized Broker Business
4. Embassy Office Parks REIT – Comparison with AIT and a Look at the Required Yield
5. Sea Ltd: Follow-On Public Offering an Opportunistic Fundraising?

1. Sea Ltd (SE US): Placement a Good Opportunity to Enter an Attractive Story

Last Friday, Sea Ltd (SE US) unveiled plans to raise around $1 billion (based on the closing price on 28 February) through an underwritten public offering of 50 million ADS. The fundraising was inevitable due to the high cash burn and net cash position.

2. Sea Ltd Placement – Capitalizing on Momentum

Sea Ltd (SE US) is looking to raise about US$1.2bn in its upcoming placement. It will be larger than its IPO in 2017, which raised about US$880m.

The deal scores well on our framework owing to decent valuation, strong price and earnings momentum but had little track record for comparison. The company announced a strong set of FY2018/Q4 2018 results which had beaten estimates. 

Even though, the deal size is large, representing 23.2 days of three-month ADV, there is enough time between the announcement to the end of the bookbuild to price in the impact of the placement. 

3. Shenwan Hongyuan (申万宏源) A+H: A Commoditized Broker Business

Shenwan Hongyuan filed in November to list in Hong Kong. It is a leading brokerage house in China. With an A-share market capitalization of USD 18 billion, the company plans to issue up to 20% of its shares for an A+H listing. In this insight, we will discuss:

• Company’s history.
• Comparison with leading Chinese brokers.
• Our thoughts on valuation.

4. Embassy Office Parks REIT – Comparison with AIT and a Look at the Required Yield

Embassy Office Parks REIT (EOP IN) plans to raise around US$1bn in its India IPO. EOP will primarily hold office assets in Bengaluru, Pune and Noida with a total portfolio size of US$4.2bn. 

In my previous insight, Embassy Office Parks REIT – Good Assets but Projections Might Be a Tad Too Bullish I covered the company background and its projected growth. In this insight, I’ll compare it to its closest listed peer, Ascendas India Trust (AIT SP) and add in the performance of other yield driven listings in India.

5. Sea Ltd: Follow-On Public Offering an Opportunistic Fundraising?

• We evaluate the attractiveness of Sea Ltd’s (SE US) US$1 bn follow-on public offering announced last Fri.
• This offering is a typical opportunistic fundraising as its ADR price has recently surged.
• At assumed deal price of US$21, SE post deal would trade at 4.6x 2019E P/adjusted sales (excl. 1P e-commerce sales), vs. peers average of 5.2x.
• We would recommend investors to go for the deal if it is priced at US$20 or lower.